Dear Footy Tragics,

Round 1 is now just 15 days away and we only get one more look at our players before locking them into our starting squad of 30. With a limit of only 20 trades over 22 rounds, the importance of nailing our squad of 30 players prior to Round 1 cannot be underestimated. In an ideal world, our trades should be used to cover for injuries, rather than to cover for poor player choices at the selection table.

The best advice I can give you to help nail your squad of 30 players is to conduct your own thorough research. Personally, I prefer to stick to the mainstream media and Footy Tragic to obtain information on my players. The AFL website is useful for this purpose, as is The Herald Sun and The Age if you reside in Victoria. If you live outside Victoria, I understand it can be difficult to obtain information on interstate teams. For example, the WA media focus almost exclusively on West Coast and Fremantle, and the SA media focus on Adelaide and Port Adelaide. Fortunately, this problem is now largely overcome given the fact most articles are now available online.

While the information you obtain from these sources is invaluable, as an old school footy lover, I refuse to pick any players in my dreamteam unless I have seen them myself (either live at the ground or on TV). Personally, watching a player once is not enough for me, I prefer to see my player in action at least two to three times before locking him in.

The problem here is many of the bargain buys we are all searching for play for struggling teams such as Richmond or Melbourne, with both of these teams knocked out of the NAB cup in Round 1. With no TV coverage of NAB challenge matches, we are left with only one option, watch these games live.

With NAB challenge games this weekend at: Southport, Visy Park, Narrandera, Fremantle, Casey Fields, Morwell and Mount Gambier, most of us have the option of watching at least one NAB challenge match this weekend (unless you live in Adelaide or Tasmania)!

I’ll be heading out to Visy Park, Melbourne this Friday afternoon to check out the Carlton vs Adelaide match. My main focus will be on players such as Marcus Davies from Carlton ($89,500 defender) and Phil Davis from Adelaide ($94,500 defender / forward). Both of these players are currently in the mix for me, but given the fact I have hardly seen them play, I want to check them out first hand.

Watching NAB challenge games live may seem too extreme for your liking, but its all part of the due diligence required when selecting your initial squad of 30 players. I consider it a one percenter, which could be the one percent advantage you gain over your opponents this season.

Analysing player stats is a very important component of dreamteam, but it is no substitute for watching players with your own eyes. Avoid the temptation to take short cuts with your dreamteam, because as the saying goes “there are no shortcuts to any place worth going”.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

As regular readers of my column may have noted, one of my objectives with my weekly article is to draw attention to certain areas you may have overlooked. As my fellow Footy Tragic writers Toby and Dan often say, I do look at dreamteam and the underlying strategies used very differently to most.

I make no secret of the fact that my goal in 2010 is to win something more tangible than my private league (a new car would be nice)! While the joy obtained from gaining bragging rights over mates cannot be underestimated, I’m searching for more. If you are reading this article now, there’s a fair chance you are serious about your dreamteam. If so, you probably find it easy to beat 15 of your mates, year after year. What is not so easy is beating 250,000 people!

At times it feels like the impossible dream, to win the ultimate prize against so many competitors. The reality is, the difference between finishing 19^th overall (as I did in 2008) and winning the competition is 2 - 3 incorrect decisions over the course of the season. If you finish 431^st overall (as Toby did last year), the difference might be 7 - 8 incorrect decisions over the course of the season. It’s important to realise that we don’t make 50 decisions over the course of the season (30 players now, plus 20 trades), we make closer to 1,000. The more decisions we get right, the higher up the rankings we move. The question is, “How do I make the right decisions?”

Do I pick Brent Harvey or Shaun Higgins as my 3^rd forward? Both players averaged approximately 89 points per game last year and are priced around the $390,000 mark. Harvey and Higgins are both quality players with one major point of difference, their age. Harvey is 31, whereas Higgins is 22 (on 4 March). This decision for me is obvious; I’ll take Higgins because he is younger and therefore less likely to be troubled by soft tissue injuries. Some dreamteams will choose Harvey (incorrect decision number 1) and then start bleating when he tears a calf muscle in Round 7. Or the dreamteam coach who picks up Paul Chapman at a price of $494,500 (incorrect decision number 2), the man with an average of 113 points per game in 2009. The problem is, Chapman has hamstrings made of crepe paper and will miss games at some point in 2010.

I can hear the excuses already, excuses such as “injuries have killed me”, “bloody injuries”, or my favorite “I’ve just been unlucky this year”. Injuries happen so prepare your team for them and don’t complain when they happen. Good coaches see injuries as an opportunity to improve their team, rather than an excuse for failure. Even better coaches choose durable players likely to play 22 games, thus saving valuable trades!

Another very important consideration is what to do with your midfield structure. Do I choose, four premiums and four cash cows, or do I choose two premiums, three mid tier players and three cash cows? Or maybe I should choose two premiums and six cash cows because all the cash cows are in the midfield this year? Do I choose Dane Swan or Gary Ablett? Do I choose Leigh Montagna or Bryce Gibbs? Do I choose Tom Scully or Jack Trengove? Do I choose Michael Barlow or Mitch Banner? When making these decisions, keep in mind the fact that every decision you make will impact on your final ranking at seasons end.

The end result is that for every decision you get wrong, it will cost you points. Not only will poor decisions cost you valuable points, they will also cost you trades. We only get 20 trades for the season, so don’t waste them by making poor decisions with your initial squad of 30 players.

Getting back to my original question, “How do I make the right decisions?” My advice to you is to make your decisions based on facts rather than innuendo and to back your own judgment over your mate’s advice. You need to consider all factors such as a player’s: age, height, weight, draft history, injury history, form, fitness, previous club, role change, job security, opportunities available due to injuries to teammates, capacity for improvement etc.

Don’t be afraid to stick your neck on the chopping block and pick that unique player you want, even though it seems you are the only coach interested in that player. Personally, I always favour a unique selection over a player who is in over 100,000 teams (I’m trying to beat those teams, not follow them to the finish line)! I see so many dreamteamers make poor decisions because they can’t make a decision for themselves, so they copy what their mate is doing. I’m reminded here of a famous saying “the ditch is fairly obvious into which the blind led by the blind must fall”.

With so many decisions to make over the course of the season, it can all seem so complicated. Let me make it simple and easy for you, make more good decisions and less bad decisions and you’ll climb up the rankings. To take it a step further, if you make more good decisions and less bad decisions compared to the other 250,000 competitors, you may end up with a new car by September!

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

When considering which players are worthy of a prized position amongst our squad of 30 players, pre season form undoubtedly plays a big part. With extended squads providing greater opportunities to previously unsighted players, the NAB cup is where hardcore dreamteamers do the bulk of their work.

As each AFL season passes by, the professionalism and dedication required by players increases. Clubs now are employing more fitness staff, more strength and conditioning coaches and spending more money searching for “the edge”. In today’s modern game, the importance of completing a full pre season is paramount. This is especially important when it comes to dreamteam, as buyers of Luke Hodge and Buddy Franklin prior to Round 1 last year will testify.

The problem I see is where dreamteamers read too much into NAB cup scores. It’s very important to realise that a NAB cup or NAB challenge match is played at approximately 70% intensity when compared to a regular season match. Some players will dominate pre season games, yet go missing in Round 1 when the kitchen heats up.

If you take a trip down memory lane, you may recall that Bradd Dalziell from Brisbane (now at West Coast) was the most effective dreamteam player throughout the entire 2009 pre season series. The super fit Dalziell was suffering from a severe dose of leather poisoning 12 months ago and racking up huge dreamteam numbers. Despite a hefty $420,300 price in 2009, many coaches jumped onboard the Dalziell bandwagon based on his very impressive pre season form.

Unfortunately for Dalziell and the many dreamteamers who jumped onboard, he went missing in action during the home and away season. By the end of the 2009 season, Dalziell had played just 8 matches due to a combination of injury and poor form, for an average of 84 points per game. After paying premium dollars pre season, many coaches were badly burnt by Dalziell in 2009.

The lesson here is don’t get too carried away by pre season numbers. The NAB cup and NAB challenge matches are only practice matches. Just because a first or second year rookie scores 100 points against an injury depleted Adelaide or Geelong side in February, it doesn’t mean they will repeat the dose in Round 1. Do I need to remind you about the noise created about Port Adelaide’s Wade Thompson last year? If you listened to Mark Williams 12 months ago, you would think he had unearthed the next Jeff Farmer. History shows us that Thompson played just 2 games in 2009 for an average of 38 points per game (not to mention a return to the North Adelaide reserves side later in the season).

While it’s absolutely crucial to have a fully fit squad of 30 players, you don’t need all of your squad averaging at least 80 points per game in February.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

Gary Ablett or Dane Swan?

Can I really afford to spend over $520,000 on one player?

Would I be better off saving some cash and making Bryce Gibbs or Joel Selwood my captain?

So many questions yet so few answers. If you have not already done so, it’s time to start thinking about your dreamteam captain for 2010.

Are you the type who sticks with one captain all season, or do you change captain on a weekly basis to ensure your captain is playing against Richmond every week? Or are you the type who says: “This year I’m picking one captain and sticking with him for 22 weeks”, but then you end up swapping captains week to week and getting it wrong time after time?

While Dane Swan and Gary Ablett were the two dreamteam standouts in 2009, that doesn’t mean they will be the stars in 2010. As a wise man once said “past performance is no guarantee of future performance”.

Had you chosen the number one dreamteam player of 2008 (Jimmy Bartel) for season 2009 as your captain, you would have cost yourself 10 points per game as Dane Swan averaged 119 points per game to Bartel’s 109 points per game in 2009. Now with double points going to our captain, we’re now down 20 points per game or 440 points for the year.

Our challenge is to find the 2010 version of Dane Swan. While it may be Swan himself, it will most likely be someone else. For example, Bernie Vince could lift his game to another level in 2010 and will enter this season full of confidence after winning Adelaide’s best and fairest last year. With 55 AFL games under his belt and entering his fifth season at the age of 24, Vince looks set to explode. With another big pre season under his belt, expect Vince to rack up 30 plus possessions most weeks as opposition clubs struggle to contain him.

The appeal with trying to pick this year’s winner rather than last years is that you won’t have to part with over $500,000. You can pick up Vince now for $441,400 and save $82,100 if you choose him over Swan. Other viable options include Scott Pendlebury ($454,700), Joel Selwood ($453,400) or Brent Stanton ($443,600).

Getting your captain choice correct is crucial to your team’s success. Personally, I prefer to nominate my captain prior to Round 1 and back him in to get the job done for the next 22 weeks.

My advice is to look forward rather than back and be prepared to take a risk. While popular captain choice Gary Ablett has been the dominant player in the AFL for the past three years, nothing lasts forever.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

What an electrifying start to DT 2010 it’s been. The excitement that comes with a new season has hit fever pitch as we pore over any piece of pre season footy news we can get hold of. We are now just two days away from the commencement of the NAB Cup, which promises to shed some light over which players we should select in 2010.

As a new season starts, we all promise ourselves that we won’t make the same mistake we made last year, or that other mistake we made two years ago. Depending on how good your memory is, you may have also convinced yourself that you won’t make that same mistake you made three years ago, or even four.

The reality is, not only do we often repeat previous mistakes made, we also find ourselves making new ones, particularly when the rules changes. Regular visitors to our site will no doubt be aware of the “new rule” in 2010. The rule where the dreaded ZERO, becomes a thing of the past.

For those not familiar with this new rule, allow me to explain it in plain English.

STEP 1 - Select two dual position players. Note that they must both be defender / forward or midfielder / forward etc. You can’t have one defender / forward and one midfielder / forward.

STEP 2 - With these two players you have selected, choose one in each position.

STEP 3 - You can now swap these two players around at any time, without using one of your trades.

It looks like the days of the donut are gone, right? WRONG!

This could possibly be the most confusing and utterly useless rule I’ve seen. The reality is there are not many duel position players I’m interested in for 2010. What about Paul Chapman, Alan Didak and Shaun Higgins you ask? All three are quality dreamteam players, but I still want them in my forward line. Why would I choose Alan Didak as a midfielder and cost myself Leigh Montagna in the process? I’m greedy, so I want both.

Let’s run a case study. I’ve worked out this new rule and 2010 is definitely my year. I’ve picked up Alan Didak as a midfielder and Shaun Higgins as a forward so I can swap them around to cover injuries. It’s Round 6 and Gary Ablett is injured. What’s more, my 7^th and 8^th midfielders are running around in the VFL this week as part of “workload monitoring” in their debut AFL season. My rock solid midfield of eight last week is now down to five, but wait, I can swap Didak and Higgins around can’t I? Yes you can, but you’ve still only got five midfielders (with one of those five being Higgins, rather than Montagna).

The next scenario takes us to the Thursday night prior to Round 22. Didak and Higgins have both being picked to play their 22^nd game of the season. As you see their names selected on the official team sheet you think to yourself, what a futile exercise that was. Why did I weaken my all important midfield to cater for a strategy that can only be used in extraordinary circumstances?

We only get four premium midfielders, why reduce it back to three? I’m not compromising my midfield to gain some peace of mind in my defence or forward line. Choose your cheap defenders and cheap forwards wisely, and then back them in to get the job done. I prefer to attack, rather than defend. I’m not costing myself Brent Stanton, Brad Sewell or Jimmy Bartel to maybe cover a zero in Round 16.

I must confess I was going use this rule to swap Andrew Moore a $125,500 defender / forward (already in my side) with a suitable defender / forward. The problem being, there is no viable option under $140,000. If you can find one, please let me know.

As you may have gathered, I’ve decided to not use this new rule at all in 2010. I see it as an unnecessary distraction, with any potential benefit being far outweighed by the cost incurred in straying from my core strategy. My core strategy is to choose 30 quality players, not 29 quality players and an average defender / forward.

My advice, don’t let this new rule cloud your judgment over which players to select. If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

As we all dissect player prices and positions for season 2010 it’s time to talk strategy. When carefully constructing our squad of 30 players, there are some common traps that many dreamteamers fall into. One of these traps is what I call, “The appeal of the cheap journeyman”.

We’ve all fallen for this one in previous seasons, the discarded reject who was going cheap and about to kick start his career at another club. As the discarded reject embarked on his 6^th pre season campaign, he told reporters on a hot February night: “I feel like I’m 18 again and I’m as fit as I’ve ever been. I can’t wait for the season to start so I can prove to my old club that I belong at this level”. While a new club can be just the change a player needs to reinvigorate himself, you need to be very careful. This is particularly important where the player at his new club is “bargain priced”.

The players I’m referring to this season are: Andrew Raines ($218,200 defender), Xavier Clark ($168,500 defender / midfielder) and Matt Maguire ($101,700 defender). I’ve received many questions about these three players already, with many dreamteams keen to add some experienced players into their side at a “bargain price”.

The problem I see is that Raines had six years at Richmond, while Maguire and Clarke both had eight years at St. Kilda. If you can’t prove yourself as an accomplished AFL player in six years or more, it’s time to face the fact that you’re not good enough. While all three players have had more than their fair share of injuries over the journey, they have also had ample time in the AFL system to make an impact.

You might argue that Raines and Clarke were not discarded by their previous clubs, but when exchanging players for pick 40 or higher in a thin draft, the message is clear that they were no longer required.

My advice is to look forward rather than back. We’ve all heard of the term “youth policy” and it’s my core strategy. Brad Sheppard from West Coast looks a very likely type and what’s more, he’s a defender! Need a cheap forward, then why not give Luke Tapscott from Melbourne or Tom Lynch from St. Kilda a chance? As for midfielders, you don’t need my advice because there is an abundance of quality kids to choose from.

Personally, I’d prefer to take a punt on an 18 or 19 year old kid with huge potential and upside, rather than flog a dead horse.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

Over the next four weeks, I will be advising you on how to carefully construct your dreamteam for season 2010. This article is written for those of you who have consistently struggled to force your way up the dreamteam rankings due to what I would call “common mistakes made”.

One thing I noticed time and time again last year analysing the large number of teams that were submitted to me in 2009, was that many people were selecting their players in the wrong position. For example, Shaun Higgins was a very popular and successful dreamteam selection in 2009. However, given that he was available to be selected as either a forward or midfielder, why did 30% of all dreamteams submitted in 2009 have Higgins as a midfielder? Higgins should have been selected as a forward. While this may seem an obvious mistake to many of us, it was clearly the most common mistake I saw in 2009 dreamteams.

You may now be wondering; why does it matter where we select Higgins? The answer lies in your overall team make up, where we select 9 forwards and 9 backs, but only 8 midfielders in our squad of 30 players. Firstly, this break up of players seems strange to me, given the way footy is now played with most teams running a rotating midfield of 10 - 12 players. This means that approximately 50% of all AFL players are virtually midfielders, rotating on and off the ground. Unfortunately, I cannot control the make up of dreamteam so we must work around it.

We all want to fill our squads with dreamteam stars, but the majority of these stars are available as midfielders only. Dominant dreamteam players such as Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Jimmy Bartel, Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Bryce Gibbs, Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell can only be selected as midfielders.

What all this means is that most dreamteams end up with a first class midfield, but a shaky defence or forward line (or sometimes both). This often results in the dreaded 0, which is usually caused by either a wobbly defence or forward line. By picking a player such as Shaun Higgins as a forward we can not only have him in our side, we can also choose another 8 quality midfielders.

Good luck for season 2010!