Footy Tragic
Where Did All The Forwards Go?
There is always one position every year which simply stinks – whilst in 2009 it was impossible to find a good defender, 2010 has been a year where the forwards have stunk it up. Early season guns Riewoldt and Brown sustained long-term injuries; Gia, Higgins, O’Keefe and Sylvia couldn’t sustain their early form; Buddy keeps getting suspended; Barry Hall peaked in the pre-season, and Chapman’s hamstring has finally gone ping! They are some shocking stories for players featuring in plenty of Dream teams – unfortunately, inconsistency isn’t curable – a sideways trade looks to cause you just as much pain, but just with a different pain. There are some players now looking like spending a further four-or-so weeks on the sidelines, and at this time of year, this can be a very big problem. Jonathon Brown is now out until at least round 16, Stevie J has been given a four week ban, and Jarrad Waite three. Many coaches will debate what to do with these players, with similar worry surrounding the likes of Chapman, Higgins and Sylvia – all who should return this week (hopefully…). So I thought it may be time to propose two options hat could hopefully fill one of your empty spots for the remaining nine rounds – both are in good current form and priced under $400,000, making them somewhat gettable. I am talking about Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin and Alan Didak, two of the few forwards to be averaging over 100 points across the past three games.
Lance Franklin:
Like most other forwards, Buddy’s season has been an inconsistent one, although this has been little to do with form - through a series of separate high bumps, Buddy has spent a total of four games on the sideline through suspension, meaning he has played nine games out of a possible 13 - frustrating for any owner! Although, if looking for positives from his season, despite his time on the sidelines, he has still been consistent with his form, averaging an impressive 95.11, and only dropping below 80 points twice (a 67 and 74 in his first two games of the year). In fact, since these two games (where Hawthorn were convincingly beaten) he has averaged 102 points - second of all forwards to Paul Chapman.
So with such an ability to find himself in front of the tribunal, why should you take the punt on Franklin? Well, whilst I can’t guarantee you anything surrounding the tribunal (especially since they proved themselves a farce with the Steven Baker decision!), what I can tell you is that both he and Alistair Clarkson have made public statements, commenting that Franklin will be working hard for the remaining rounds to avoid making any contact with the heads of his opponents. We can help by simply keeping our fingers crossed. Despite his recent suspension record, as I stated earlier, his form over the past month or so has been fantastic – in fact, dream team-wise he has been the third best forward across the past five rounds, behind only Chapman and Jack Riewoldt. And just in watching him, his form has been obvious – and those who saw his game against Essendon last week will agree – he didn’t just get 130 DT points and kick five goals, but it was the way he went about it that was impressive. Unlike last year, where he spent the whole year carrying injuries and therefore out of fitness and form, he is now running at full pace and finishing off games in good condition – essentially, he is back to his dominating best.
On his day, Franklin is close to impossible to stop, and as shown in the Essendon game, Hawthorn will go to great lengths to ensure he is kept in the game - they played Beau Muston in the forward line, giving him the job of keeping Fletcher away from Franklin, meaning the less superior Hocking was given the job on Buddy - I assume this will be a tactic used more this season due to how successful it proved to be. Franklin now also has the fitness base to be able to run far off his opponent - he has the tank to allow him to spend plenty of time up of the wings - a tactic that doesn’t just wear out his opponent, but also one which allows him to rack up even more disposals through the midfield.
It is strange, but due to Buddy’s suspension record this year, he has flown somewhat under the DT radar - almost every week where coaches may be looking to bring a forward in, he has been suspended. This has left him in just 23% of teams - still a large number, but not nearly as large as seasons past where he has easily cracked the 50% mark. If he can stay on the park he is an extremely consistent player, and as he has shown on several occasions this year, he can easily crack the ton. I really like him as an option - especially with the amount of poor form and inconsistencies in the forward line this year - it could be nice to have a player whom can actually be relied upon most weeks to perform.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.7 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.1
Average Tackles per game: 3.4
Average Disposals per game: 17.9
Average Goals per game: 3.3
Breakeven: 59
Average Dream Team Points: 95.11
Price: $386,500(+$31,600)
Alan Didak:
In 2009, Didak was one of the most prolific DT scorers, with a five week stretch of games in which he averaged a huge 147.2 points (all five games netted over 120 points each). It was a series of games that showed how much DT potential Didak has – until that point he had been a very good dream teamer, but scores like that stamped him as elite. Unfortunately though, in 2010, just like most other forwards, Didak’s form (or at least his DT scoring) hasn’t been close to that he experienced last year – so far he has averaged 94.17 points a game, but has had only one game over 120 points (last week). 2010 has been more of a season of consistency for Didak, rather than sporadic mega-scoring like in 2009. Although only cracking 120 once, he has still made it to 100 on five occasions and only dropped below 80 twice (a 52 and 79).
I talked about Didak earlier in the year, blaming taggers for his form, and quite possibly, the same diagnosis can be blamed for his current scoring patterns – almost every week he gets the number one tagger, although as the season has gone on, he has proven an ability to work through the tag. This week for example, Didak was tagged by Nick Smith, Sydney’s number one tagger, but was still able to reach a respectable 89 points. Smith followed him all game very closely, but at each sign of congestion, Didak worked hard to get behind the packs and get his hand on the clearances, often losing Smith in the congestion. It is this sort of hard work that will see him continue his average for the remainder of the season.
Unlike Buddy, Didak is more a midfielder who spends occasions in the forward line, rather than the other way around. Obviously, this can’t be a bad thing – in fact, due to his duel roles he averages 1.75 goals and 23.5 disposals a game – both very good statistics. Collingwood isn’t a very bad team either – this time of year, the players you want are the ones residing in the teams atop of the ladder and Collingwood is only half a game off ladder-leaders Geelong and St.Kilda, meaning that their key playmakers (such as Didak) are the ones you want in your team.
As I said at the start of this article, I am chasing a player who is consistent. Too many forwards this year are producing scores from every end of the scale and personally I am sick of it. Didak therefore is a good choice – whilst it seems he will rarely produce the 140+ point games his 2009 season became known for, he is also rarely producing many games sub-eighty points. His form also appears to have been building lately, suggesting that he could come home with a bit of a flurry in the final rounds.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.7 : 1
Average Marks per game: 3.4
Average Tackles per game: 3.25
Average Disposals per game: 23.5
Average Goals per game: 1.75
Breakeven: 87
Average Dream Team Points: 95.11
Price: $393,300 (-$58,000)
10 Comments on Where Did All The Forwards Go?
And what do I do if I already have both of them?
I’m low on trades so am hanging on desperately to them for later rounds. Have had trouble with the forward line all year, started with Riewoldt, Franklin, ROK, Didak Higgins, Hitchcock, Hall, Peterson & for some reason unknown Roberts.
Sadly I wasted a trade to get Ebert (port) and am stuck with him for now. Would love my time over again to select Boomer Harvey & Tom Rockliff instead of Ebert &
Reckon he and Daisy Thomas are two worth considering, along with Cyril, who looks to be over his injuries.
Edit meant to say Ebert & Brown.
The only thing that slightly concerns me with Franklin is that his run consists of some potentially tough games.. (Dogs, Cats, Lions, Saints, Power, Swans, Demons, Freo, Pies) Does anyone think this is an issue?
On the other hand i am really liking Jack Voldt’s run home and am strongly considering him still! (Swans, Freo, Roos, Pies, Crows, Demons, Blues, Saints, Port)
I can see a few more bags of 4 or 5 coming up amongst those!
Also, i found this article suggesting that Chappy might be back this week already, so should he be in contention also!?!? … I think his risk factor is beyond scary now!
Sorry, forgot to post the link…
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/06/28/186201_gfc.html
With Franklin I don’t think it will matter who he plays, as long as he roams outside 50. His main downside is that he gives away a lot of frees, that and that he gets suspended a bit. He lays tackles, wins possession on the wings, takes marks and kicks goals.
Jvoldt is a decent prospect but he won’t be under anyone’s radar now, Oppositions will plan to stop him and now he’ll have to work harder to get the same scores. Not impossible but consistency will be the issue now.
current fwd line.
okeefe, gia, dids,hall,pods,rockliff,tippett, (brown, davis)
not great at all, but hoping to jump on riewoldt after a couple of games. Maybe a pavlich for 350 in 2 weeks.
What do people think of Boomer Harvey? Averaging 90, priced around 350K.
He has his ups and downs but he’s been averaging 90 for a few years now, plus plays most of the season etc. Could be a unique pick?
Acidfiend, I wish I had him. consistant as they came, his one shocker was followed by a monster and he has been very good since then.
Wears a tag very well, does what he does, almost unstoppable IMO. May not light it up but you could almost bet on 90 most weeks.
wish I had him, If I lose another to long term injury I will get him.
David Hille did his hammy again at training today. Grrr. This doesn’t help me at all – i’m currently languishing at the bottom of the Footy Tragic DT league – Hard to belive considering I’m averaging over 2000 and am actually quite happy with my squad!
Great article again though Toby. I’ve got Brown, with Sylvia and Higgins also cause for concern. I’m definitely tempted by Buddy.
So what are people’s thoughts on the Chappy situation? From all reports he is set to return this week, and as of last Friday i was all set to bring him into my team after weeks of plannig! But after seeing the words “Chapman” and “Hamstring” in the same line, i have since been scared off…
Is Chappy too much of a risk to bring in right at the moment or should we hold-off on him for a few more weeks to see how he goes?
Desperately need a consistent scoring forward, damn it!!
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