Footy Tragic

When choosing a new player for your squad, you are typically targeting a player who presents good value for money. Rarely will you trade in a player who is at his peak price – often you will look to players on their way into some form, or perhaps a player who we know is talented, but simply has had some poor recent form. It is however a precarious balancing act as you want to make sure you are not trading a player who has outplayed his abilities two weeks in a row, and nor do you want a player flying down in value, only to continue the trend after you have traded him in. So it is important to discover that particular equilibrium between a bargain and a booby-trap. Therefore in this article I will compare two players of similar standing in today’s game – one is a superstar who has had an average season until late, whilst the other was an early season star before an injury put a serious dint in his price – today I will be looking at Adam Goodes and Nick Riewoldt.

Adam Goodes:

Up until a couple of weeks ago, Goodes’ season could probably be considered a pretty average one – he has rarely torn a game open, as has been his trademark in previous seasons, and he has kicked no more than four goals in a game – a feat he has only achieved once, against the Dogs. Dream Team-wise he has also been ordinary, topping 100 points only four times with scores of 100, 102, 103 and 106 – hardly anything too amazing. His one saving grace has at least been consistency – he has averaged 86 points and has dropped below 80 only three times, meaning that 80% of his games have seen him score between 80 and 110. It has been Goodes’ role that has been the main cause for his diminished form – in a Sydney team lacking Barry Hall, Goodes has resumed the CHF mantle for the team – a position that is particularly hard to play, especially in a team such as Sydney that plays most of it’s matches at the SCG – a small ground that often sees the ball kicked over the head of the centre-half forward. He has played the role well, but has far from shone, with many critics suggesting he needed a move back to the midfield to reinvigorate him. Fortunately, in round 15 this is exactly what coach Paul Roos did.

Goodes started the game against North Melbourne in the centre square and dominated from start to finish – he racked up 33 disposals (including 20 kicks), 11 marks, 5 tackles and also snagged three goals when he drifted forward late in the game. His form was stunning, and finally we saw the Goodes of old, the Goodes who has won two Brownlow medals playing through the midfield as both a ruckman and a ruck-rover. The worry after this game was whether he would start the same way the following weeks against Carlton, or whether it was just a ploy by Roos to play Goodes into some form. Fortunately, the same role was given to Goodes against the Blues and it had similar effects, with him snaring another 25 disposals, 7 marks, 5 tackles and a goal. So over the past fortnight, he has averaged 137 DT points – an incredible 51 point differential to the rest of his season!

Now not for a minute am I suggesting that Goodes will likely average 137 for the remaining rounds, but he is certainly playing in a style that will unlikely see him drop below 100 points on too many occasions through the remaining rounds. In fact, if Goodes continues his midfield role for the remaining rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to average over 110 per game. But that is precisely the issue – WILL Goodes continue to play in the guts for the remaining rounds, or is it purely a sporadic role given to him to play him into some form? In a way, it wouldn’t be a huge loss if you did trade him in and he went back to averaging around 90 points (much better than plenty of other options), but that is not the point! If you trade him now as a Sydney Swans midfielder, you want it to remain this way for the remaining rounds – and this is exactly why you would be paying a premium on him from where he was a couple of weeks ago.

I think the best way to gauge Goodes’ role for the remaining rounds it to look at the rest of the team, assessing who could possibly play his CHF role if he was to permanently move to the midfield. Firstly, the Swans main other tall options are Jesse White, Bradshaw and Henry Playfair – Bradshaw is injured and is expected back in 2-3 weeks; Playfair will likely miss the rest of the season, whilst White impressed on the weekend after being a late inclusion for the Swans. So, the other tall timber looks average, but I am pinning my hopes on the role he played against Carlton on the weekend – he played almost equal time in both the midfield and at CHF, almost like a resting ruckman. When he was in the midfield, White was the main target, whilst small forwards such as McGlynn stepped up. Also, injuries to midfielders McVeigh and Smith could see Goodes spend more time on ball – the role given to Bolton on a HFF also opens up another spot. So, in summary, I do like his chances of spending at least 50% of game time on the ball – seemingly enough to see him clock up the ton.

Despite two big games in a row, Goodes could still be a bit of a risk, but I think that because of the large amount of potential he offers, he is worth the price tag. As I stated earlier, his form at least hasn’t been shocking as a forward, but as a midfielder he would certainly be much more valuable. It has been a year of poor, inconsistent forward options, so hopefully Goodes can offer a reprieve to plenty of stressed coaches in the latter parts of the season. His price is on the up, so now is as good a time as any to pounce!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.2 : 1

Average Marks per game: 7.4

Average Tackles per game: 2.5

Average Disposals per game: 18.9

Average Goals per game: 1.87

Breakeven: 18

Average Dream Team Points: 93

Price: $383,700(-$51,100)

Nick Riewoldt:

After round two, when Riewoldt kicked seven goals against the Kangaroos, he looked to be the in-form player of the competition and, for the first time in five years, was coming off a complete pre-season and looked a million dollars. Then, as everyone will know, round three saw him tear his hamstring from it’s tendon early in the game, finishing him on 20 points and subsequently putting him out of action for three months and a day, all the way to round 15. He has now played two games, and understandably is still finding his feet after such a long layoff. Fortunately though, Nick is a professional and has returned in very good physical condition, just as he has done, despite injuries, in round one of the past five years. And just like these two games, he has taken some time to adjust his fitness and get to a good pace, then almost like clockwork, three or four games back and he is once again in dominating form. Since injuring his hamstring, Roo has dropped $113,100 from his starting price of over $450,000, now making him a very appealing buy. But can he recapture his form in time for DT finals?

Whilst previous years haven’t seen Nick injure himself quite so severely, he has regularly come into the season underdone - whether it be a pre-season knee injury or shoulder troubles, but he always bounces back very quickly after about 3-4 games of low game time and adjusting to the pace. In 2009, he averaged 78 for the first three games before averaging 106.5 for the rest of the season. In 2008 he averaged 75 for the first five games and 99.4 for the remaining rounds. 2007; 71 for the first four, 99.3 for the remaining. 2006; 86 for the first five and 96.7 for the full season. So going by his history, we should hopefully expect Nick back scoring over 100 in around round 18 – the week before of DT finals. Whilst it is a more significant injury he is returning from, he has at least been able to participate in full training for the past month, meaning he shouldn’t be too far behind the 8-ball, especially considering the amount of work he puts in on the track.

So far, he has played two games and they have both been reasonable -  he has played only around 60% game time in each, meaning  he hasn’t had much of a chance to get much of a rhythm going, and nor has he had much of an opportunity to score much higher than he has. He is presenting well and is still going for the kamikaze marks – his main worry looks to be kicking at goal, but the fact he was confident enough to kick one from 50 metres against the Pies shows that he is winning the mental battle. His game time should begin to ramp up over the next fortnight – normally his game time is around 90%, so he is playing well below his usual TOG, suggesting there is plenty of improvement to come. The Saints also have one of the easiest draws for the rest of the season, meaning he should have many opportunities to rip apart a game – the Saints play Hawthorn this week, then after that it’s Essendon, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide – all bottom-eight sides.

There is no doubting that Nick is a risk, but I believe that he has plenty of upside in him. Clearly he is a star player and his best is simply amazing - the query is whether he will return to this sort of form this year. Whilst I believe we won’t see him in the sort of form he started the season in, he does have enough weeks remaining to really make a statement before the Saints embark on their finals series. He will also provide your team with a good dose of x-factor - unlike most of the other high-scoring forwards, Riewoldt won’t be in too many teams. Whilst there will be a large number who jump on him over the next month, it must be remembered that plenty of coaches will be down to their last couple of trades and are probably unlikely to be able to fit him into their squad. He probably carries more risk than any other forward at the moment (Chappy included), but I also believe his upside is well and truly the greatest.

Key Stats 2010:*

Kick : handball ratio – 1.3 : 1

Average Marks per game: 8.5

Average Tackles per game: 2

Average Disposals per game: 17

Average Goals per game: 3.25

Breakeven: 131

Average Dream Team Points: 98.5

Price: $355,000(-$113,100)

*(Stats do not include his round 3 game where he injured his hamstring 20mins in)