Note: We suggest reading the article below before voting!!!

Ok… Well I’m sure there will be no big surprises as to what this article will be about; after the tragic injury to Nick Riewoldt on Friday night, 148,449 coaches felt the pain of losing Dream Team’s most premium forward. There are now plenty of questions on everyone’s minds; “Do I trade him?” “If so, do I swap him for a similarly priced premium?” “Or do I swap him for a cheaper option, allowing me to upgrade another player with the excess cash?”

AFL Rd 3 - Saints v Magpies

All questions are appropriate, and different answers will apply to different circumstances – although one question will have a universal answer, and that is no matter how much you love the man, no matter how many trades you have left, you must trade him – firstly, it is expected he will miss (a minimum) 8 – 10 weeks, but as is the nature of his injury, any timeframe given will be purely speculative, meaning that it has every chance of being longer. Also, you don’t want a player worth $445,000 sitting idle on your bench when that sort of money could easily afford you a player who will average at least 100 points for the year.

I believe there are two main strategies to choose from, and within each strategy there are two players to choose from. For this reason I am going to shoot myself in the foot and set myself a massive task for this article – I will review all four players, as well as the pros and cons of each tactic.

Tactic 1: The Like-for-like Swap

I believe that this is the path most coaches will take for the Riewoldt trade – it is safe (as you know you are picking up a premium player), and to make it easier, there are two very clear options of who to trade to. This method involves swapping Riewoldt for a player of similar price and stature – the two clear trade options are Jonathan Brown and Ryan O’Keefe. Each player has his own benefits, and the great part about this tactic is that neither have any significant downsides.

Jonathan Brown:

Brown has started the year on absolute fire and after round two was the “must-have” player for just about anyone who didn’t have him. He has been in dominating form, already booting 17 goals for the year! Coming into the season, many people had worried about the possible adverse effect that Fevola would have on Brown’s game, but clearly Fev’s inclusion has worked brilliantly for him. Whilst Bradshaw was a great player, Fev is clearly better, meaning there is absolutely no chance an opposition coach will stick a second-rate defender on Fev – in turn this means Brown is less likely to be double teamed (and hence increasing his scoring potential). What’s more, Brown came into the season in great condition for the first time in many years – this means he is super fit, strong, and less likely to get injured. Anyone who has watched a Brisbane game this year will attest to the super form Brown is in – he is simply dominating games and looks close to unstoppable! If there were a downside to Brown, it would be the fact he has played three reasonably weak defences – West Coast, Carlton and Port Adelaide – and whilst none of these three are considered ‘poor’ backlines, they’re are certainly no St.Kilda, Geelong or Bulldogs. This means we have not yet seen Brown pitched against any of these top teams and makes us slightly hesitant to get him as we are unsure if he will have the capacity to dominate against such sides. At the end of the day, I think this weakness is one that could become over-exaggerated – regardless of the opposition, no one would have been able to stop Brown in his current form.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 4.36 : 1

Average Marks per game: 10

Average Goals per game: 5.66

Average Disposals per game: 20

Breakeven: 86

Average Dream Team Points: 124.33

Price: $441,600

Ryan O’Keefe:

O’Keefe would bring a very different style of player into your Dream Team than Brown – O’Keefe is one of the few DT forwards who actually don’t play their games in the forward line. Although O’Keefe used to play as a third forward for Sydney, his role is now as a ball winning midfielder with a great workrate and a great kick. He is a very sneaky pick for your team as you are essentially picking up a midfielder in your forward line! His season to date has also been a very impressive one – he would likely be leading Sydney’s B&F at the moment thanks to his great ball-winning ability, but also has the capabilities to find space and hit up his forwards with precision. Last year O’Keefe proved that in his new role he was able to clock up some very impressive dream team scores, such as the 173 he scored against Carlton. He is also incredibly consistent, only dropping below 85 three times after round six. He has also already proven this year he can crack the big scores with two games above 120 points! The worry with O’Keefe, as there seems to be with any Sydney player, is the amount of ball that gets won through the Sydney midfield. Sydney have typically been a team known for their low disposal count – up until this year that is! They are really using the ball differently this season to years past with their injection of youth and speed into the lineup – Sydney have never been so exciting to watch. So as it stands, I think there is little to worry about regarding Sydney as a team – they are in winning form and have stepped up their disposal count, meaning O’Keefe could be every chance to step up from the high standard he set for himself last year.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.67 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.6

Average Goals per game: 1.6

Average Disposals per game: 27.6

Breakeven: 97

Average Dream Team Points: 114.67

Price: $438,300

Tactic 2: The Mid-Priced Bargain

This theory is obviously a little different to the first; it sees you instead downgrading Riewoldt to a cheaper player, but not necessarily one who will score you any less. These are players on the bubble – they have played two games and are in fantastic form. The trade to them will allow you some extra cash to perhaps upgrade (either this week or later on) one of your underperforming players from elsewhere on the field. It is a riskier strategy as you are not necessarily swapping for players with much of a rich DT history, but from their exposed 2010 form there is every likelihood that they are on the cusp of a breakout year.

Jarred Brennan:

Without wanting to blow my own horn (but when you have the opportunity…) I called Brennan’s meteoric rise this year in the pre-season when every training session he spent 100% of his time with the midfielders. So, what I mean by this is that his huge first two games weren’t necessarily out of the box – the writing was on the wall if you looked close enough. Brennan has for many years been a special talent, however we have never seen him mature into a consistent footballer. Now 25 years old, Brennan seems to have finally matured – it is certainly noticeable in his on-field presence as well as his maturity now when interviewed. Now, whilst only so much can be read into a player’s persona in front of a camera, for Brennan his maturity was often what Leigh Matthews (his previous coach) put as the reason for his inconsistencies as a player – so now he has grown up we should be able to expect a much better player. When we look at both games he has played this year (he sat out round 3 with a suspension), it is clear he is in form – he dominated in both games, winning plenty of the ball, but also adding tackling to his long list of skills. He is a highly talented player and there is no doubting his ability, but if we trade him in, the expectation is that he continues in the same vein. So what is to stop him from reverting back to his old ways? I believe, from both watching him onfield and listening to him off it, 2010 could finally be the year we see Brennan establish himself in the elite bracket of footballers.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 8

Average Disposals per game: 26.5

Breakeven: 31

Average Dream Team Points: 120

Price: $373,000

Cyril Rioli:

Sometimes it can be too easy to get sucked into a player just because they are highly skilled, but unfortunately they don’t get enough of the pill for DT. Rioli has often looked like he will be one of these players – he could be best on ground, yet only have 20 touches of the ball. But already this year, with his high pace, skill and frenetic energy, Rioli has shown he is no DT slouch. In his most recent game (against the Bulldogs), Rioli scored a very impressive 130 DT points – certainly nothing to scoff at! Coming into the season, Rioli had been suffering from early Osteitis Pubis – a cruelling groin injury, which strips players of their pace and penetration on their kicks. Fortunately, Hawthorn rested Rioli properly (the only way to get over this issue) and he appears to be now healthy. His role in the team sees him playing mainly as a forward, but he is capable of pushing up the field and racking up plenty of possessions on the wing. And it is no secret that Hawthorn want him to play as much time in the midfield as possible this year – not only does he have fantastic skills, but his renowned pace and tackling ability will put fear into any opposition midfielders. As the year wears on and Hawthorn are more confident with the condition of Rioli’s groin, I expect we will see much more of him in the midfield, but up until then, he will still spend large chunks of each game in the forward line, meaning there is a strong chance he will have the occasional stinker (i.e. 30 – 50 points). Other than his injury history, my main worry with Rioli is that his game has never been one very suited to Dream Team, so there is every chance that this 130 points is one out of the box. However, as Dan pointed out on the site yesterday, that just like Gary Ablett Jnr he has never had a game suited to DT – but perhaps he is just so bloody good he is going to score well anyway!

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.8 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 5.5

Average Disposals per game: 16

Average Goals: 2.5

Breakeven: 42

Average Dream Team Points: 100.5

Price: $334,900