Footy Tragic
Cream Of The Crop
We discussed this a bit last week in the wash up from my article, and it is the theory that at this time of year you shouldn’t bring in anyone but the best. Many ask about the idea of sideways trading and I wanted to confirm the definition of this; a sideways trade is one that nets you little noticeable points value - i.e. a trade to a player who will only score an extra five or so points is considered a sideways trade - especially at this time of year. What we want at this stage is a player who will regularly score at least a ton. There are only a few players who fit this bill, and my recommendation to you as finals approach is to hold tight on sideways trading. If you have any of the frustrating players such as Gia, Higgins, Pods, Pav, Cox, Enright, Waters, Carrazzo, Harbrow (and I’m sure everyone could name a dozen or so more), it is now probably best to hold tight – keep them as your 7th forward or 6th mid or whatever and just hope they fire in finals. The grass can always seem greener, but don’t get sucked in to trading one of these guys to someone who is likely going to frustrate you as much.
However, if you can afford a proper upgrade of any of these guys, then I can certainly see the merit - an upgrade is a noticeable points increase, as discussed above. If you have a fair amount of trades left, it could even be a consideration to do a two-for-one trade to bring one of these guys in to strengthen your side. My suggestions of the real premiums are detailed below; please note though I have only picked a couple of midfielders as there are quite a few who could fit the bill.
Good Luck! (and apologies for the lateness of the article!)
Defenders:
Brian Lake – $457,200; season avg. 104.29; last five avg. 118.8:
I think coaches started waking up to Lake as a dream teamer when he scored a whopping 192 points in round 9. At the time I wrote it off as a blip on the radar, never to be seen again. As it turns out, I was proven wrong. Although playing a full-back role, a position typically inhabited by players with no interest in finding the football, he plays a very creative attacking game – and what’s more, he is very capable of shutting down his direct opponent in the process.
Lake is a fantastic reader of the play and is ranked first in the AFL for marks from opposition kicks, showing that he is almost able to play the loose man role in the backline whist still actually having an opponent - he knows exactly when to zone off his opposition and intercept a foray forward. He has brilliant marking skills too, ranked number one in the AFL for marks and number five for contested marks. Even lately, opposition coaches have attempted shutting him down and this became laughable against Carlton when the Blues forwards spent more time trying to spoil Lake from marking, rather than marking it themselves.
Whilst he has had 137 contested possessions for the year (remembering that backmen will typically have a very high contested count), he has had a whopping 235 uncontested possessions, which for a backman is typically consisting of either rebounding out of the backline with no pressure, or kick-to-kick football. Lake loves a bit of kick-to-kick, and it often the middle man when bulldogs play the game – last week he racked up 30 points in under five minutes of play and this is not the first time it has happened. With the Bulldogs killing games early, Lake is able to get plenty of ball later in the game as they chip it around.
By now it is hard not to think of Lake as a dream team star - he has done it consistently now for most of the year, only dropping below 80 twice – both times in the first four games. You could do much worse than bringing Lake into your squad, and being in just 11% of teams, there is a strong chance you won’t have too many opponents who have him too.
Midfielders:
Dane Swan – $539,000; season avg. 124.41; last five avg. 136.6:
There is little more to say about a man who is so prolific in this game we play - he is a star, plain and simple. In fact, looking at his season stats, he has only dropped below 110 points on three occasions, and two of those times in the first five rounds! That’s mammoth! He is a ball magnet, but more so is a ball winner. His incredible fitness allows him to run all day and run into space to pick up plenty of ball from his teammates. He is also great at clearances, regularly seen streaming out of packs with the ball and kicking it long into the forward line. Another stat line he seems to be succeeding at is tackling - he averages nearly five per game.
Essentially, at this point of the game, if you don’t have Swan you are making it very very hard for yourself. With those clever enough to have kept him captain over the past month would have been treated to scores such as 322, 282, 276 and 266 – all immense figures. Compare this to players using Ablett as Captain over the past month – 216, 218, 162 and 252 – that’s a huge 298 points difference in four games of football!! So it is worth not only thinking about what he may bring to your team as a player, but think about what he may bring to your team as Captain! He could quite easily be the difference between you winning or losing your final.
He is not slowing down either, proving himself untaggable again this year. Fortunately, the likes of Didak, Pendlebury and Thomas are all having good years too, meaning Swan is not regularly at the attention of taggers, and if he is, it is generally not the primary one. Teams have learnt not to let the likes of Didak off the leash as he is much more damaging by boot.
Essentially, I think you need Swan this year. Most years it is not as easy to suggest one player as a necessary addition, but he is simply so far ahead of everyone else it is just ridiculous. If you don’t have him, he may be the guy who squashes your own finals hopes, being your opponent’s captain.
Matthew Boyd – $489,700; season avg. 115.8; last five avg. 125.4:
Boydy is way too unrecognised for his amazing DT skills – in the past month or so he is in fact not too far behind Swan. Since round 11 he hasn’t dropped below 110 and has been over 130 on three occasions. He is Mr. Consistent this year, and whilst his best may not be as high at Swan, he is consistently around a very good level.
One of the best things about Boyd is his lack of owners - he is only in 11% of teams, mainly thanks to his lack of media attention, but this doesn’t make him any less great. He is currently ranked 15th in dream team and 10th for disposals in the AFL, despite missing two games earlier in the year – if he had played them and gotten his average in each, he would have been ranked 3rdfor disposals and 2nd for dream team – not bad figures at all!
Boyd is another untaggable, but that is mainly because he typically plays a role on opposition mids. Boyd is very good at stopping the tougher in-and-under mids in the competition, but will often try to hurt them the other way with his own fitness. He will often play on players who lack much of a defensive side to their game, meaning that they will rarely stop him from sneaking forward for a goal, as he does quite a bit.
I don’t think Boyd is a better pick than Swan, but he is cheaper by $50k and won’t average significantly less than him for the rest of the season. He is also a lot less common, so if you are looking to beat your opponents rather than be the same as them, Boyd could be a fantastic way to go.
Forwards:
Paul Chapman – $454,500; season avg. 117.25; last five avg. 112.6:
We all know the highs and lows that are Chappy – whilst he is far and away the best DT forward option this year, averaging nearly 20 points better than his nearest opponent, most of those who don’t have him are clearly paranoid about his hammys going ‘ping!’ But so far in 2010, Chapman has missed only the one game, a stat which certainly goes against what history would suggest of him.
Chapman claims that Geelong’s new fitness guru has cured his plight with hamstrings, so we have to choose whether to believe this or not before trading him in. The worry is, if the issues really aren’t gone, history suggests that Chapman will miss most of his games at the back-end of the year. For example, these are the games he missed for the past three years; 2009: Rd 8, 10, 19, 20, 22; 2008; Rd 9, 10, 18, 19, 20; 2007: Rd 7-9, 17-19. Get the gist? Knowing that rounds 19 – 22 are DT finals time, Chapman has missed 6 of a possible 12 finals games, including last year’s Grand Final! So if you were to trade him in, you’d want to damn well believe his word!
Also, Bomber Thompson has signalled he will be resting his stars over the next month or so, putting further doubt into the minds of many. But all this aside, perhaps we have to look at the positives – you won’t win dream team without taking risks and Chapman is certainly a big one. He doesn’t appear to be carrying any injury and we know that he would certainly have been rested if he was. I really like him as a pre-finals trade. Just before (or maybe after) week one after assessing all the current media about him. I have a gut feeling that all will be OK, but still, you would want to have some fair cover. Personally I don’t have him, but I will shortly be doing the maths to find out how possible trading him in is.
5 Comments on Cream Of The Crop
Man I wish I could take back my decision to bring in Hargrave during the season. Hopefully he’ll score well for the rest of the season now that the doggies are playing alot better.
I agree with holding on to players the likes of Hargrave, Higgins, Cooney, S Johnson, Brown etc – the points differential is minimal.
Knowing my luck once you trade out one of these guys an injury or General Soreness will hit one of your other players and you’ll soon be playing with a doughnut.
My plan is to sit on the trades (3) and only upgrade injured players. Over the next few weeks if you have players playing for teams outside the 8, if they get any sort of injury they’ll probably be season ending.
Remember COX last year these guys get sent to surgery or pensioned off early
The 5-10 points you might gain will quickly disappear when you have hitchcock, gumby, warkock, nason etc playing instead of a premium
‘If you have any of the frustrating players such as Gia, Higgins, Pods, Pav, Cox, Enright, Waters, Carrazzo, Harbrow’
I have 8/9 and was this pretty close to trading in the other…
I’d like to have lake but then i’d have too many bulldogs players, including three in my backline. Out of all the ones listed the one I’m considering the most to trade out is Pods, if so likely to chapman but i’ll only trade in chapman for an elimination final as a ‘big-hitter’ for the game as i dont trust his body.
Interesting that Toby has put Pods on the “frustrating, but hold tight” list, as i’m sure many will be offloading him for Riewoldt this week, which is what i had planned to do.
I think the point differential in having a firing Riewoldt in your team, over a hit-and-miss Podsiadly for the run home is far more inviting, in my opinion. Especially with Voldts form on the up and Pods droppin-off of late..
Still undecided what i’m going to do there, as i will most likely have to double-trade to get Voldt now.
Have been thinking of not doing any trades again this week and doing 2 next week on the eve of DT finals, as i have basically secured my spot in the top 4 of my league. Only issue is that that’s giving another week for Pods to drop a further 20k of his price, and for Voldt to go up just as much, making me having to scrounge an extra 40k odd to make up the difference next week…. hmmmm
Do i just pull the trigger this week and be done with it?
If anything i’ll do doing a cash trade this week so i can double upgrade (if required) before finals. Theres always a chance that who you trade in this week (chappy more so than others) could get injured and miss your important first week of finals or possibly more. This being said I’m playing for my league not overall ranking so i can take the points hit of holding cahs and not upgrading.
Wilson if your that worried about pods dropping in price (rumours he wont even play this week) you could always downgrade him for cash this week and upgrade next week but you would need bench cover of some sort. Riewoldt also has a breakeven around 130 so should fall some more.
Wilson, I think that Riewoldt it the one anomaly – clearly he is priced as a mid-ranger and has been scoring accordingly, but all you had to do was watch Friday’s game against the Hawks to see he would be back towards his best in the next fortnight. My advice isnt necessarily NOT to trade, but just to make sure you get full kick-back from them. I think that a trade from Pods to Riewoldt is certainly a positive. My point is more that a backline trade to a Scotland or Carrazzo is not so beneficial i guess.
Joker, i really like your cash-grab scheme. It could be a slight risk, but i think it will really benefit in the end. In fact, i will be looking at the options myself… hmmm…
Pods to Riewoldt is just about a certainty this week for me though…
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