Footy Tragic
Mid-Season Breakouts
This week I will look at two forwards who each started the season under $330,000, averaged less than 80 points for the first 6-8 rounds of the season, yet have clocked up an impressive 111 point average over the past five rounds. So perhaps I am jumping on these two dynamos a couple of weeks to late, but sometimes it is too hard to ignore players in such breakout form. The two players I talk of are Richmond’s new saviour, Jack Riewoldt, and Adelaide’s own rising star, Richard Douglas.
Richard Douglas:
It’s fair to say that the first time Douglas scored a ton against Richmond in round seven I was a skeptic, in fact I singled him out as a ‘blip on the radar’ in my Weekend Wrap. However, in all but one game since then he has scored at least 115 points, becoming Adelaide’s most consistent and in-form player. From rounds 1 to 6, Douglas was playing predominantly as a forward with cameo roles through the midfield – in this time he averaged just 63 points. However, since round seven and his more permanent move to the midfield, he has averaged a very good 111 points.
The beginning to Douglas’ career has been a slow one – he is already 23 years of age and is in his fifth year of AFL football. His early career has been played mainly on the half-forward flanks, often as a defensive forward. His strength is in-close football, a fact that has helped him to an impressive tackle average, as well as a good ability to win his own ball in a contested situation. As a junior, Douglas was a midfielder with a good ability to find the pill – something which he finally looks to be matching at AFL level. I have personally found Douglas a very one-dimensional footballer over his first few years – he is good at the grunt work, but has shown very little flair and has never threatened to rip a game open. Things have certainly changed lately, and I have been watching him closely – his addition to Adelaide’s midfield is mostly due to their depth of injuries, however I cannot imagine Neil Craig moving him from here, even if they do all return.
He suddenly has a bit more excitement to his game, winning his own ball and running it up the wings – he is breaking through packs and delivering the ball into the forward line as if this has been his role for five years, not five games. He is also yet to gain the attention of taggers – lately, Thompson has been the target, whilst McLeod and Vince also find themselves being shut-down often. One of Douglas’s more impressive stats is his tackles – averaging just two per game until round 6, he has averaged five per game since – 12 points in difference. His kick to handball ratio is also strong – nearly two kicks for every handball since round 7.
Whilst Adelaide themselves are not going very strongly, Douglas seems to be leading their now young midfield. I also don’t believe that Adelaide are as bad as their form suggests – they did get thrashed again on the weekend, but they were still competitive through parts of the game. Also, plenty of their key players are either returning from injury or coming into form, suggesting a few more wins won’t be far away. Senior players will continue to either retire or be wrapped in cotton-wool in preparation for 2011, meaning that the younger players such as Douglas are going to be left with plenty of responsibility. He is probably a bit overpriced compared to a few weeks ago (his price has risen $125,400 since the start of the year), however he is one of only a few forwards who have averaged over 100 points for the past five weeks. He will also present as an uncommon selection for your team approaching finals – he is in the fewest amount of teams of all top-20 forwards. You could certainly do much worse than him for the remaining rounds – he is certainly showing no signs of slowing down.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1
Average Marks per game: 4.8
Average Tackles per game: 3.4
Average Disposals per game: 20.5
Average Goals per game: 1
Breakeven: 55
Average Dream Team Points: 87
Price: $414,400(+$125,400)
Jack Riewoldt:
There were never too many doubts about whether Riewoldt would become a good player, but the worries were more about when – he plays in the forward line for the bottom team of the competition and has become known (in his short career) for being a very selfish player – something which certainly slows down his development. But in the past several weeks we have witnessed Riewoldt getting better and better every week. I sat behind the goals last week at Etihad Stadium as he kicked himself six goals against the Saints – and even the great defensive side that is St.Kilda had few answers for him. He has amazing strength for a player of his age – not that it looks like it – but watching Sam Fisher and Jason Blake double-teaming him, yet BOTH getting out-bodied by the much younger player proved just how good he is getting both physically and as a player.
There will be doubts about whether he can keep this form up, but from watching him he is certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. He is clearly loving his football at the moment and his current form is indicative of this. There is, however, no better example of how well he is playing then the 10 goals he kicked against West Coast this weekend – the first time a player has hit the ten-goal mark in nearly three years – the last player being Jono Brown (not bad company to be in!). This is no mean feat, especially when you are playing for the team sitting clear on the bottom of the ladder, in a position that would generally be considered one of the hardest in football. Yet in the past five weeks, he has kicked 32 goals – more than any other player in the competition, and a tally that now has him sitting two goals clear on top of the Coleman medal list.
What makes Riewoldt’s game more interesting is the way he plays his role – to put things in comparison, he is 193cm, the same size as his cousin, St.Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt – unlike many other players of his size, his ability at ground level is almost the equal of any small forward. Where most tall forwards would palm the ball down to their crumbers when unable to take a mark, Riewoldt instead palms the ball to space where he himself can run onto it to kick a goal, ala Stephen Milne. It is a freakish ability, and one that shouldn’t be taken lightly from a player of his stature.
Goals are not his only way of troubling the stats sheet, as he has also worked on many other areas of his game too this year, such as his tackling – he averages just over four tackles, nearly double his average from 2009. His disposals average has remained the same from last year, but what has improved is his kick to handball ratio – in 2009, he was running at a very good 2.5 kicks for every handball, but this year his 5.6 kicks to every handball is simply ridiculous!
It could possibly still be argued that Riewoldt is not worth choosing due to the team he plays in, but I believe that this is not an issue – whilst it would be much better for him to be playing at Geelong or St.Kilda, the players delivering the ball to him are all great users of the ball (Cotchin, Martin, Cousins), meaning it is typically placed very well for him. Also, being such a key target, they go to him much more than any other player – think of Fevola at Carlton over the past few years. He is a brilliant player, despite only being 21 years old. He will only continue to get better and is even a chance to make it to the lofty heights of his great cousin if he works hard enough. He is not as left-field a pick as many may make themselves believe, plus with forward lines being the bane of all evil in 2010, it is worth being creative – it just may pay off!
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 5.6 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.75
Average Tackles per game: 4.1
Average Disposals per game: 12.75
Average Goals per game: 3.75
Breakeven: 23
Average Dream Team Points: 92.58
Price: $395,300(+$67,900)

17 Comments on Mid-Season Breakouts
thanks for finally answering my question Toby on Douglas. I wish i had traded Eddie Betts out to him last week or the week before but now he is just to expensive and i have to little amounts of trades
From memory, your question on Douglas was whether he was a better buy than Chapman. Clearly, if you have the $$ for Chapman, he is the better option.
Maanco, my advice is to back your gut instincts at all times.
There is no point thinking about bringing in Douglas for 3 – 4 weeks and then proceeding to do nothing about it. If you liked his form and scoring capability why didn’t you bring him in?
We provide the information, your job is to use that information to your best advantage because ultimately, you are in charge of your own team.
@Ben – and greatly appreciated info it most certainly is! :-) I can’t remember which of the FT guys it was, but J Reiwoldt was mentioned a few weeks back as a player to keep an eye on – you could legitimately claim you saw him coming and tipped those who frequent this site into him ;-)
Seriously considering Riewoldt this week to round out my forward line. Your write up about him is very convincing, Toby.
I’m not entirely sure if this is true, but someone mentioned to me that Richmond have been leading the comp in clearances this year also, so it seems they have no trouble in getting the ball down to him!
Also, having a look at their run home, i reckon he could be in for a few more bags!
Feeling a bit stupid for trading in Heath Shaw last week, I figured with Macguire injured he’s a good straight swap, probably has a higher points scoring ceiling and is a bit more consistent. Was feeling pretty stupid when he was sitting on 2 points at half time.
My last two backline trades have been absolute nightmares, traded out Beau Waters for Hargrave (I was so sure he was going to come right) and Waters has gone on to score three consecutive massive tons whilst Hargrave has given me two flipping doughnuts and a 60-odd and now Shaw has done next to nothing as soon as I bring him in.
Got one more backline trade to make and I’m complete this week. It’ll probably absolutely ruin Jack Grimes if I bring him in.
I hear your pain bighughie…unfortunately that’s what we get when we trade Heater in. I had hoped he was over this inconsistency, but the tool keeps scr*wing us with his roller coaster ride scores.
Don’t feel too bad about the Hargrave trade. You can only make decisions based on the information you have at the time, and it was a reasonable risk to take. (much easier to take the sensible view when you haven’t pulled the trigger yourself, mind…)
re: J-Riewoldt, is there any chance that the young man flames out/burns out/gets indiscriminately rested?
And in other news, here is my rare, but fun brag:
I decided that my team is locked this week just gone, and was rewarded with my highest ever score of 2,391. Thank you Mr Swan. You were worth the money.
And to the guy in the Footy Tragic League who said my team was beyond repair. Stick that up your ar….well, you get the idea.
sorry about how my last comment sounded i will read my comment before i post next time.
Thanks for the tip Ben.
Who should i trade Howlett (249,100) to i have $77,000 and 6 trades?
Leon Davis (250,500 DP fwd, Shane Edwards (250,400 DP fwd), Gary Rohan (197,100 DP fwd), Mitch Farmer (185,900DP bk)
or anyone else you can think of
I wish i had Goddard!
Are you talking about those players as bench options Maanco (as we discussed last week)? Because i wouldnt trade ANY of them into onfield positions! And if you are thinking of locking down your bench, I’d be concentrating only on Davis out of those four – he is the only one capable of improving from his current price. Plus those other three are not necessarily best-22 in their sides.
I do think Davis could turn the corner soon-ish though… with the return of Dick and Lockyer, David is every chance to move back upfield, although this didnt seem to happen against Melbourne.
Other reasonable options in that price-bracket are Sewell, Brennan, Burgoyne and Hamish Hartlett (looked VERY good on the weekend) – all of these probably have more scoring potential then any of those you named (bar perhaps Davis, who would be on par).
thanks for your feedback Toby, just cheacking if davis is still the best option for bench
Hey guys, be interested to hear your thoughts on Matty Stokes at the moment.
5 games under his belt now and seems to be finding his feet a bit more over the last couple with 20+ touches. Just needs to kick a few more goals and he’ll start hitting tons i reckon.
Anyway, thinking of saving a bit of cash for my final upgrade and going Ziebell to Stokesey this week, then hopefully bringing in Chappy next week after he drops a bit more.
Thoughts?
Wilson, Stokes looks good, but i wouldnt be expecting many 100+ scores out of him this year. he plays his role well but there is not as much need for him to venture up field as he did a couple of years ago. Also, i prefer Varcoe in that small forward role for Geelong.
But personally, i’d be inclined to look at Robert Murphy – he played his first game back from injury on the weekend as a half-back rebounder. He has played this role in the past and has been very good, and as we know, it is a very lucrative DT position. I think he was probably good enough to be kept in this role too. He is slightly speculative (as is Stokes mind you), but i think that if he can keep his body right he could be a great pickup at his current price under $300k.
Yeah, i had looked at Bob Murphy, but he has burnt me a few times in the past and just cannot seem to string a decent amount of games together before he breaks down with injury. (Don’t think i have ever seen him without a “bandaid” next to his name on FanFooty, hehe).
I guess Stokes just appeals to me for some reason as i figure that he must really feel that he has something to prove due to his much publicized pre-season antics, therefore wouldn’t do anything to jeopardize his spot in the team.
In saying that, I must agree that Varcoe is really coming into his own this year in Stokes’ usual role, surprisingly even more so with Stokes back in the team.
I still think it’s a little early to get on Trav though as he is still developing into that role and it’s probably a year too soon for him in DT, for mine.
Though, i have always kept and eye on him as that high-pressure forward type and i will be again leading into next year also, but as selfish as this sounds, i think his game-style is far too team orientated at the moment, therefore hindering his DT scoring. eg. 20 touches and 5 goals for just over 100 points on the weekend… Lindsay Thomas kick 7 with 20 touches for 165! Although, that’s probably a harsh comparison. haha
The other named i’ve noticed at a very much bottomed-out price is our good old friend Mr. Brennan. What’s going on with him at the moment? Could he be the Lions saviour with Browny now sidelined for a while?
Can I just voice how much I DO NOT recommend Hamish Hartlett? He’s insanely injury prone.
Dan, your definitely right about that hartlett has only played 4 games and hes injured again Rd 4,5 11 and 12.
As for leon davis this just came out on him http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/leon-davis-cops-it-again-from-dermott-brereton/story-e6frf9jf-1225880120122
im not sure if i should get a DP player or just go fetch some cash (but whom to downgrade howlett to?)
@maanco – I traded Howlett to Davis last week and he enabled me to avoid 1 or possibly even 2 donuts due to his DP status :-) I switched him and Higgins and put Higgins on my Mids bench and Davis on the field up Forward. With Brown and A Selwood being late withdrawals, I was still able to cover them with Gumby (Forwards) and Scully (Mids) as my emergencies. While Rnd 12 was a very high scoring round, I still managed my best score for the year! So while he (Davis) didn’t individually score particularly well, his DP status enabled me to well over 100 points I would have otherwise missed out on.
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