Footy Tragic

This week I am looking at the players who have had ordinary 2010 seasons, whether it be due to injury, form or something else. Many of these players will be ones we will focus in on in next year’s pre-season as we try and find the best bargains that money can buy. Obviously with the Gold Coast team coming in, bargain mid-priced players may not be quite as necessary, however I still feel that these players aren’t just in your team to make money, but also contribute to your team with good scores.

The way that players are priced each year is determined by their average from the prior season. This number is then multiplied by a ‘magic number’ to equal the players starting price. There are, however, some flexibility in these rules – players that played zero games can get up to around a 60% discount – although this is where the rule gets messy – some players may only get 20%, or somewhere in between, or some are put all the way down to ‘base price,’ the starting price of a first year player. So it is hard to predict at this stage what sorts of discounts players will get – one thing we can rely on though is that players that have played anywhere between zero and five (or so) games for the year should be dirt cheap in comparison to their potential 2011 output. In 2010 we had players such as Malceski, Waters, Maguire and Hille who all proved to be great bargains for teams that selected them. In this article I will look at the best potential bargains in each position for 2011. Also, if you have any players you believe to be great 2011 bargains, I would love to hear your thoughts below!

Backs:

Andy Otten: Otten was a bit of a DT star in 2009, having a breakout season in which he came second in the NAB rising star to Daniel Rich. He averaged 68 points through the season as a running defender and was a standout player in the Crows’ campaign. Unfortunately, in the pre-season this year he ruptured his ACL, meaning he hasn’t played a single game all year. He should be back fit and firing for round one next year and should be dirt cheap thanks to the fact he hasn’t played at all this year. The Crows are a very good team at rebounding from defence, and with the deferral of Bock to the Gold Coast, there will be plenty of chances for Otten to step up and improve his average from 2009.

Nathan Bock: As we are now aware, Bock is officially the first recruit to the Gold Coast Suns and will very likely take his position at centre half back as he has done at the Crows over the past three and a bit years. When on song he is a great player and a great dream teamer – he has averaged 88 points a game across 2008 and 2009 (the two years where he has played CHB), and has the capacity to pull some pretty big scores. This year he has spent plenty of time injured on the sidelines and has never really had the chance to hit his straps, averaging just 78 points across 13 games. Whilst he won’t be eligible for a discount, I believe that he is capable of scoring much more than what his starting price will likely suggest. Being one of the senior, and therefore most trusted, players at Gold Coast should mean he is capable of winning plenty of ball – we will still need to watch his pre-season though to ensure that the GC gameplan will allow for a high-possession game from a half-back.

Midfielders:

Nathan Foley: Foley has had a shocking run with injuries this year, restricting him to just four games with an average of 71 points – enough to give him a sizeable discount next year! Last year, Foley was fantastic, averaging just over 90 points until succumbing to an injury in round 14. At his best, Foley is brilliant around the clearances and is also a very good outside runner for Richmond – he can sometimes struggle with a tag, however this is often to do with the lack of other decent midfielders at Richmond, something they are quickly changing with the emergence of Deledio, Martin and Cotchin. Whilst he won’t be a player capable of averaging over 100, he should be a very good mid-priced player to both make you some money and score pretty reasonably in the process.

Tim Houlihan: Houlihan has been another player to miss the entire of the year thanks to a series of injuries. He has played several games at WAFL level, but has frustratingly gotten injured every time he is close to senior selection. He is a very capable midfielder and a good DT scorer, however the concern must be his place in the team – I have heard many West Coast fans question why he regularly misses selection as he has previously proven himself as a good AFL player. He finished the 2009 season with a run of seven games through which he averaged 82 points and only dropped below 75 points once and scored over 100 points twice. If he manages to stay on the list until next year and proves himself fit and firing in the pre-season, I believe he could be a great pickup.

Brock McLean: After crossing to the Blues in the off-season, McLean has had a horrible season, which I’m sure he would rather forget. He has again been plagued with constant injuries and has only managed to get onto the field six times for an average of 70 points. At his best, McLean is a great in-and-under midfielder and exactly the type of player needed by the Blues to help give Judd a chop-out. Over previous years at Melbourne (in a team at the bottom of the ladder), McLean has proven himself as a decent Dream Teamer, averaging 83 in 2009, 86 in 2008, 74 in 2007 and 92 in 2006. The problem is, injuries have often struck at some point in many of these seasons and thus he has averaged just 14 games a season since 2006. However, if he can prove to be fit, he could again be worth some close consideration, especially if he comes at a tempting discounted price!

Ruck:

Drew Petrie: Every year we seem to get treated to one bargain in the rucks – next year it looks to be Petrie (assuming he keeps his ruck status). Unfortunately for Petrie, he has played just two games this season after suffering two separate broken feet. Fortunately though, both injuries are just impact injuries and not degenerative ones, meaning that once he has recovered, there shouldn’t be any reoccurrences unless he is incredibly unlucky. It has actually been in both of his games this year that he has gotten his injuries, meaning he has finished the year on a very low average of 50 points. On top of the fact he has a low average, he should also come with a very good discount thanks to the fact he has only played twice this year. Over the previous couple of years, Petrie has been a great player, switching between the forward line and the ruck and has averaged 85 points over the past two years. He should be 100% fit come round one next year and is every likelihood of lining up at CHF for the Roos (his best position), meaning he will be a player almost impossible to neglect from your Dream Team.

Forward:

Chris Knights: Knights was one of the stars of the competition in 2009, playing a new role across the Adelaide half-forward line, not only racking up plenty of ball before it was delivered inside the arc, but also booting plenty of goals himself, including one five-goal haul. Unfortunately, 2010 hasn’t been so kind to him and he has struggled most of this season with hamstring troubles. The latest injury came in his second game back in round 20 when he pinged his hammy after just two disposals, finishing him on four points, a score which dragged his five-game season average down to 66 points. This eventual average will drag his price right down in 2011 and if he can show the form we know he is capable of in the pre-season, then I believe he should be one of the first picked players. There are also rumours that he could be on the move in the off-season to a Victorian club, but time will tell as to whether that is true or not.

Max Rooke: Rooke is an interesting case – he isn’t particularly a great dream teamer, but his low average (36 from one game) will see his price start very low in 2011 and mean that he could be a fantastic 7^th forward option for teams looking to save on a bit of cash. Rooke is a tough-nut half-forward and regularly throws himself onto loose balls with no respect for his own body. Over the past two seasons he has averaged 60 points, so he is not a total waste of space, but I think that if he starts the year priced between $150k and $200k it will be very hard to ignore him.

Ricky Petterd: Petterd was looking likely of becoming one of the breakout players of the year until he badly injured his shoulder in round 6. Until this point of the year he was averaging 80 points, but this mid-game injury pulled his average down to 76 for the year with a likely 2011 discount thanks to him only playing six games. Melbourne are looking very likely of going up another notch next year and becoming a very quality outfit, and up till the point of Ricky’s injury he was one of the Dees’ better players. And now with the news that Brad Miller will be delisted, it is a position that they are desperately crying out for. So it looks like the expected breakout year could be delayed until 2011 – and fortunately it should come pretty cheap!