Footy Tragic
Lofty Forwards
Note: Don’t forget to check out Toby’s Round 7 Weekend Wrap-Up.
After spending the past few weeks looking at players on the decline, I think it’s time I looked at some players well and truly on the up. With a couple of injuries in the forward line this week and the maxing out of players such as Barry Hall, plenty of coaches will be looking at this position to make an upgrade. And fortunately, there are a couple of clear-cut options who look well and truly on the way up: Matthew Pavlich and Ryan O’Keefe.
Matthew Pavlich:
The Pav is currently the second highest scoring forward in the competition, and what has made things much better for his output is the fact he is now the star in a winning team, rather than just being a star in a team that can’t get the ball to him. It has been a fast turnaround for the Dockers from where they finished last year – they are sitting second on the ladder and have only lost the one game – a close match against the Saints. Pavlich has been a star in each game and has only dropped below 85 points once!
Pav as a player is an interesting one: most players improve their point-scoring potential by moving to the midfield, but strangely enough, Pav’s move to the centre in 2009 brought home less than ideal numbers – despite still averaging 92 points for the year, this was eight points down on the previous two years in which he played in the forward line. This year Pav has moved back to being a semi-permanent forward and it has seen his average jump back up to 99 points per game. His role sees him playing a CHF role, which includes several brief stints in the midfield each game. And whilst the scores from last year suggest that midfield is not his preferred position, I belive that these occasional runs help to stimulate him and keep him in the game.
We saw his best game for the season on the weekend against an undermanned Brisbane defence and he looked dangerous every time the Dockers went forward. He is clearly the most used option in their forays forward, and now with the likes of Hill, Duffield and Mundy delivering him the ball, it is more often than not kicked well to his advantage. Also, unlike many other forwards this year, Pav’s accuracy on goal seems to be quite reasonable – so far this year he has kicked 24:10 – this high rate means he is more likely to convert you the 6-pointers than a whole collection of ones.
Personally I see Pavlich as the best option in the forward line leading into Round 8 – he seems to be in great form and is at a reasonable price for what he offers. He hasn’t quite had any scores yet that will blow you away, however I think the form he is in suggests he can consistently deliver a high score – much better than what plenty of the other forwards seem to be offering this year. Also, the only forward averaging higher than him is Paul Chapman, whose hamstrings simply cannot be trusted.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.6 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.3
Average Goals per game: 4
Average Disposals per game: 18.8
Breakeven: 46
Average Dream Team Points: 104
Price: $422,000
Ryan O’Keefe:
After asking for a trade at the end of the 2008 season and then looking out of form for the first several rounds of 2009, it seemed like O’Keefe’s career was headed in a downward spiral. But fortunately, this was not so – in round 6 last year he was moved into the midfield, and in turn taking his game to a new level. He became the 2nd highest disposal winner at the Swans and in the top 10 of the AFL from round 10 onwards. He also went through a mid-season purple patch in which he top scored with a whopping 173 DT points! Ball-winning ability is one thing, and skills another – and O’Keefe has both! He finally proved himself to be an elite dream teamer in 2009, showing consistency in his game, that was paralleled with his move to the midfield.
Now in 2010, he is still being played through the midfield and fortunately he has been able to provide us with some very similar numbers to last year. One of the impressive things about his game is his consistency – last year he rarely dropped below 80 after round six and scored over 100 nine times, whilst this year he has only scored below 90 points on one occasion (this week against Geelong).
Typically, Sydney players have always been ones to avoid in dream team, however with a new attacking game-plan in place, their DT value have all gone skyward and fortunately, O’Keefe’s midfield position has been a real winner points-wise because of it. It is also always nice to be able to pick up a true midfielder in a DT forward position and O’Keefe is exactly that – he is a very hard working mid and thanks to the likes of McVeigh and Kennelly, he is rarely the first choice to be tagged.
I believe that O’keefe is a great choice in the forward line as he seems to present as being one of the most consistent dream team performers. As he has shown both last year and this year, he rarely has a poor game, and also has the potential to pull a blinder out of his hat. I think the choice between him and Pavlich is very hard – you are competing between one of the harder working forwards in the game and one of the harder working mids in the game… very tricky!
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.77 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.4
Average Goals per game: 1
Average Disposals per game: 24.5
Breakeven: 144
Average Dream Team Points: 101.71
Price: $407,400

28 Comments on Lofty Forwards
Dale THOMAS what are your thoughts?
Hey maanco, i have never been much of a fan of Daisy – I am one of the lucky ones who have never been sucked into getting him in my team. However, this year seems to be a little different – he is playing more time on ball and clearly his Pies are flying, adding to his scoring ability. I still have my speculations about him, but the fact he has now done it consistently for seven rounds is a very good sign, so i wouldnt say no. He wont average the same numbers as the two guys above, but he does present both a cheaper option and also one much more unique.
Btw, good job in the eliminator! Terrible week for me: I lost against my mate (who will never let it down – this is my first loss in this league for three years!) by 7 points (he had Ablett captain… grrr) and got knocked out of eliminator. Team didnt quite make 2000 which was disappointing and i dropped 3000 places to about 4000 overall… bugger!
@maanco – lucky you with the Eliminator win, sadly my week sounds far more like Toby’s – eliminated, lost 1 of 2 matches, didn’t make 2000 and dropped 3000+/- places :-( Suffering severe DT frustration right at the moment…
Just to torture myself further, was just wondering when the trades/scores/rankings will be updated for Round 7 on the Results page?
Can someone please explain this to me.. My midfield consists of the following: Bartel, Boyd, Murphy, Gibbs, Pendlebury, Barlow – and not one of them.. NOT ONE was able to score above 100 this week!
I’m starting to wonder – is it even possible to win this competition without Gary Ablett in your team?..
I had a quick squiz at the current top 20 teams overall on the DT site and the most frequent combination in the midfield is Ablett, Bartel, etc .. or Ablett, Swan, etc… it’s almost so boring looking at their teams because they’re literally all identical but so frustrating at the same time seeing their whopping averages!
So much for being unique.. might as well join the sheep! Hey, that rhymes! haha
Wilson – so what you’re saying with your rhyme, is that if you want your team to shine, you need to get the Cat’s number 29??
But what about if injury struck? Then all those teams, well they’d be…
…ducks?
who could be someone who i can downgrade waters too!
and who should i upgrade Cyril Rioli to Jonathan Brown, Matthew Pavlich or Dale Tomas?
also you forgot about the review on the carlton, st kilda game.(just a friendly reminder)
thanks for your help
I don’t think Dale Thomas’ much vaunted cousin, Dale Tomas does not have very good job security. I head Mick Malthouse say he’s going to ship him back to Poland….
If you can afford him, it’s Pavlich all the way. Although a Rioli trade is still too sideways for my liking, whatever the form lines say. It’s a wasted trade IMO.
Hey Maanco, about to do that review now… I was at the premiere for Robin Hood last night so didnt get a chance to see the game (Thank God!) So will be having a go at it now…
Maanco, do u have any other options to ship out other than Rioli? The inclusions of Burgoyne and Hooper, etc could help him this week and he can only get better.
Go blues hey Toby?
are you sure about this toby? rioli’s BE is 130 (+-10)
i was also thinking either Alan Didak or Alan Didak?
could you please review my team its darwin jabiru’s
don’t worry his BE is 92 but he hasn’t been very good inclusion to my team so i don’t really wont him anymore. Im also thinking of getting rid of Beau Waters because of his BE of 104.
Thanks for all of your help
Is robin hood any good? wanna go see it!
Final review it up… I almost refused to do it out of principal… haha. I’ve been lucky in the two years since this site has been up i have never really had to bad-mouth my own team… But i don’t mind calling it as i see it – we were flat, and worryingly so! I hate our reliance on Riewoldt!
If i were coach, i would deploy Goddard as a permanent CHF – yes u rob the midfield, but with the likes of Peake and Armo playing in the twos, we as least have some extra options.
I would keep Kosi at CHF, bring Stanley in to play in the pocket as another tall pocket with good endurance (Roos strength is his ability to run back into the space created by flooding to take a mark – few forwards have the fitness to replicate his role or ability).
Surround these three with Milne and Schneids as crumbers who also rotate through the midfield, and Steven and McQualter as the high-pressure forwards.
Drop King, bring in McEvoy, and when either he or Gardiner is not rucking, rest them in the forward line…
But that’s just me…
Btw, what is everyone’s thoughts on Brennan?
Keep or trade? He is out for 4-6 weeks
And yeah, Robin Hood was very good – more about his early days before he becomes an outlaw, so interesting. I thought i’d hate it, but was pleasantly surprised. And Crowe was very good as Robin – actually suited the part well
Yeah, 4-6 weeks is always such an awkward time-frame for DT injuries, Toby.. i can see benefits in both trading and keeping him really. Unfortunately, he’s dropped more than 50k off his price tag over the last 3 weeks so that doesn’t help much if you were thinking of a straight swap to another premium, especially if you haven’t got much in the ol’ piggy bank..
Pavlich, ROK and Didak would be the obvious options i guess, if you can afford it? Higgins and Steve J are also at reasonable prices, Franklin is around Brennan’s price and Sylvia will plummet more after his last 2 ordinary rounds. (ps. damn you Sylvia!) You could also take a risk with a small-forward type like Betts or Monfries, perhaps?
However, on the other side of the coin, if you have cover you could take the punt and hold onto him for those cagey “4-6″ weeks and hope he comes back into form upon his return. Could be a handy “ace up the sleeve” further down the track as you would assume most would offload him this week… Hmmm
I don’t think 4-6 weeks is an awkward time frame at all. 2-3 is awkward, 4-6 is see you later, thanks for the memories in my book.
Maanco, in general it appears you have way too much reliance on players break even scores. You got Rioli in to be a keeper, yeah? Fair enough if you think he’s performing so badly and there’s no way out, but his break even shouldn’t really be a huge factor in trading out someone who you planned on keeping. I’d be basing my decisions pretty much entirely on whether or not I think he will stay in his form slump.
I guess the only reason i’m figuring it is an awkward time is if you wanted to consider holding onto him for that amount of time.. what happens if he progresses with his recovery well and is back after 3 or 4? Would seem like a bit of a wasted trade really.. just IMO
I think Brennan should be traded, he’s been identified by opposition teams to be shut down which he isnt handling at all, not too mention his ability to go missing (more in the past then this season but still) and ill discipline. Pav is obviously the choice forward unless you want to splash the cash on Chappy but hes not as durable. ROK, if you dont have him, should drop in price over the next couple of weeks much like Goodes. Other two similar options IMO are Higgins and Didak with Didak having more scoring power but more chance of being tagged. Daisy’s having his breakout season but i think the boat has sailed, Stevie J is at a good price but he will frustrate you and lastly Leon Davis, was awesome last year (bar finals which didnt affect DT) but some saying looks like hes carrying an injury and is barely getting any midfield time, which could be due to injury or others ahead in the midfield rotations, but at 300k and set to drop again this week could be a straight swap with barry next week or a rookie.
Yeah, i must admit i don’t actually have him myself but would probably trade him out also. Just throwing some opinions/options up that not everyone has to necessarily agree on, but might consider..
Davis is a front-runner. As long as Collingwood can win by 10 goals every week he will get a good score, but i can’t see him getting back to the same sort of form he had last year.
now im thinking Steve Johnson aswell and i think i might get rid of breanan
Ok, injury report has Brennan out for a straight 6 weeks now… Trade!
yer i think i may keep rioli and i will probably trade breanen to pav. But what to do with waters
For Those after a real smokey (and I’m sure dan will love this one/already considering him…): matty stokes… Will play his first game of the year and has a good dt history and starts well priced… Hmmm
Daisy’s massive improvement is eating into Leon’s points IMO. I am not at all keen on Davis.
Matty Stokes is an interesting one, Toby. One to keep an eye on. ;)
Davis doesn’t seem to be as fit as last year and seems to be playing almost permanently as a small forward. It almost appears to be a case of ‘second year blues’, except the ‘second year’ is the year after his best, most consistant year as an AFL footballer. Do NOT pick Davis up. He is NOT back.
I have been to all Pies matches bar the saints one as my girlfriend goes for the Pies (fair to say it was a difficult time in our relationship last week…).
Daisy is working extremely hard (I have been a big basher of her…err, him..) and getting the rewards. That said, i could never pick him in dt. Unless he became a premiums premium.
Really? You go out with a Collingwood supporter….?!?!
Why would you do that?!?!?
She must be SMOKING hot.
;-)
It is a testing point of the relationship.. we’ll leave it at that. Funny though, I always seem to find myself with them.
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