Footy Tragic
Dominating Midfielders
As was the theory last week, I am this week going to be comparing two very important midfielders from top-eight sides. Both started the season a little shaky, but have since well and truly hit their straps. Furthermore, both are certainly underpriced for what they offer. Each could be locked in for captaincy across the entire season and both are well-known DT heroes from season’s past as well as this one. Give up? I’m looking at my main man Lenny Hayes and DT stud, Dane Swan.
Dane Swan:
If you are a dream team coach and you are not completely in love with Dane Swan, there is something clearly wrong with you! This is a man who over the past four years has dominated the dream team competition, averaging a remarkably high and consistent 106.5 across his past four years, including a whopping average of 119 points last year! But Dane goes about his footy a little bit differently to a lot of the other DT studs – whilst there is no denying his ability as a footballer, you would be stupid to suggest he is as good as someone like Gary Ablett, let alone better than him in his Brownlow year of 2009 – but if you go by stats alone (and that is all we are concerned about in DT), Dane was the best player in the competition in 2009, a season in which he became the first player in AFL/VFL history to top 700 disposals in a season – that’s a monstrous average of 32 a game!!
So that’s enough gushing about his stats – clearly he is a man capable of fulfilling a huge role in your team – hell, you could lock the “C” onto him every week and be pretty confident he will deliver. There are several very good facts that surround Swan that make him an even more appealing addition to your team – he plays for Collingwood, a team who are sitting a game clear on top of the ladder and play a great style of high-possession footy; as far as the opposition is concerned, Swan is not the greatest player on the team – therefore taggers are likely to assume roles on teammates such as Pendlebury, Didak and Thomas; also, Swan has a great ability to win his own ball and a tank that allows him to run all day, clocking up dozens of handball-receives, all the way to the final siren.
This year has been a bit of a slower start for Swan – after scoring 143 points in round one, over his next four rounds he averaged just under 100 (99.5). Whilst if these scores came out of 95% of the competition, I’d say most coaches would be very pleased, but the fact he started the year priced at a lofty $523,500, it’s fair to say it was a hard pill to swallow for some coaches who had him locked in before the start of the season. But his past three weeks have seen him return to the Swan we know and the Swan we paid the big bucks for – he has averaged 131 points over the past three weeks and his price looks to be as low as it is going to get for the season (barring an early injury).
With Swan’s amazing DT history, and the fact he has now got the runs on the board for season 2010, he looks like an obvious choice in any midfield. He is a player capable of running all day and burns off an opponent when he does find himself with one. He has averaged five tackles and 30 disposals a game this year, showing he is right on the pace to claim a spot in the top five DTers for the year (again…). The only question is whether you can afford him – he is the third most expensive player in the competition, but with an average of 117 points, it seems almost impossible to avoid wanting him for your team.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.3 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.3
Average Tackles per game: 5
Average Disposals per game: 29.6
Breakeven: 93
Average Dream Team Points: 116.88
Price: $484,300 (-$39,200)
Lenny Hayes:
Like Swan, Lenny has been a DT jet for a few years now, however in 2009 he took his game up another notch, averaging 109 points for the season. Although not quite as big a scorer as Swan, Lenny is massively consistent and comes $50,000 cheaper – and despite his scores not being as high as Swan’s, they are still big enough and consistent enough to lock him as Captain each and every week.
The interesting thing with Lenny this season is how he started it – in fact, it is exactly the same way he started his stellar 2009 – he came into the season with a calf complaint which saw him eased into the action for the first four rounds where he averaged 90 points and around 65% game time. Obviously, as his time on ground increased, so did his scoring. Since recovering from his injury and returning to his usual 85% TOG, his scoring has increased respectively – he have averaged 115 points in the four games since.
As a player, Lenny is a star and plays the sort of game that attracts Brownlow votes as he plays a very uncompromising inside brand of football – however he is also more than capable of spreading from a contest and providing an option. As a huge Lenny fan, his ability to work his way around a man and avoid tackles is a highlight – a talent he has worked hard on due to his average level of pace. Like Swan he can run all day and proves very hard to tag – whilst he has high-quality teammates in DalSanto, Montagna and Goddard, all of whom are more likely to attract a tag, Hayes still finds himself with a defensive player on him due to his ability to will his team across the line – not unlike Chirs Judd. But, he has proven that he is able to work off his opponents through hard running and an uncompromising attack on the ball and the ball carrier.
This is where Lenny’s game differs to players like Swan – whilst Swan makes 80% of his scoring through marks, kicks and handballs alone, Lenny uses tackling as a large part of his point scoring. This year, just over 25% of Lenny’s scoring has been from tackling – a whopping 208 points worth. This is not to say he is not a ball winner – in 2009 he averaged 28 disposals, whilst this year he is already averaging 27 per game, however his huge average of 6.5 tackles (he has averaged 8 per game for the last four rounds) it what really gives his score a nice buffer.
At this stage of the game, Lenny looks to be only getting better – he is pushing 30, but is still showing continued class and longevity at his age, despite the hard-hitting way in which he plays his football. Even though the Saints appear below par, the midfield is still getting more of the ball – it is just their forward line (or backline on Sunday night) that is dysfunctional. I have even expected Hayes to step up his workload (if that is possible) whilst Riewoldt is out and now that he is skipper – until recently I was always of the opinion that Hayes was a better leader than Roo. He may average around 5 – 10 points less that Swan, but he is $50k cheaper and also presents himself as a much more unique pick (Hayes = 5.8% of teams vs Swan = 28%) – essentially, Hayes is a hugely consistent player, and just watching him you will see that he never gives up, no matter what the score-line.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1
Average Marks per game: 3
Average Tackles per game: 6.5
Average Disposals per game: 27
Breakeven: 92
Average Dream Team Points: 102.5
Price: $443,500 (-$35,000)

28 Comments on Dominating Midfielders
Good article – and I’m very tempted to go for Lenny, particularly after you guys put me onto him last year and he ripped it up…
But before reading your article I would have thought Montagna or Boyd (or even Stanton) would offer better value. They are both about the same price as Lenny, and will likely go down this week. Do you expect Lenny to average more this season? And would you think Lenny would be more durable than the younger guys?
I had the exact same thoughts as bluebottle. I’m a saints supporter myself but i know the lenny, with his age, can certainly get himself injured or ‘rested’ late in the season.
Wouldn’t a cheaper Boyd (after this weekend)who is a couple of years younger and has shown high scoring capabilities (until he had surgery on his this year), perhaps better value?
Montagna too, after his high scoring last year, and his cheaper price, couldn’t he be some value?
Any thoughts on Nick Dal San To or any other player priced below $400,000, because thats all ill be able to spend, on a player even with a double trade.
Brad sheppard or Jeromey Webberley? (for downgrade options)
thanks for all of your hard work
Alan Didak is another one
Yeah Montagna could have been another option, but with Hayes i was attempting to compare a “cheaper” option… But Joey is a great choice too if you can afford him – he is more in the Swan price bracket though…
I believe he could average a bit more that Lenny, although it wouldnt be any more than 5 points…
Nicky Dal is another very good option – especially at his price! I wish i was seeking another midfielder this week, but alas, there is one spot left and it is for Ablett…
He is a BARGAIN at the moment for what he offers, thanks to a massive tagging job by Carrazzo last week. The great thing with Dal compared to plenty of others around his price is that he is capable of easily scoring up to around 140 and will generally at least crack the ton – he is just not Captain material as he has the occasional stinker. Fortunately though, he does not have these poor games as frequently as he used to – it’s now only 3 or 4 times a year; 2 againt Port Adelaide (DalSanto is K Cornes’s bitch) and then two more…
So at that price, he is certainly worth grabbing! Definitely in good form, but it was just one game that let him down.
Oh, and go for Webberley – enjoyed parts of his first two games and has reasonable security. He is also $50k cheaper than Sheppard. I loved it when he absolutely cracked the Sh#ts in his first game when they lost, having a mini Brad Johnson-esqu tantrum… It showed the passion! haha
If i downgrade Naston to Webberly this week I’ll have over $500k in the bank. I think I’ll go for Dane Swan, unless someone wants to talk me out of it? I could go for someone else and save some in the bank. It will complete my midfield, I’ll have a decent enough bench of Shuey and Martin for cover.
Another insightful article :-)
@bighughie – I picked up Dane Swan last week and am happy with my decision, albeit after only 1 week :-)
I’ve got a couple of questions/discussion points:
1. I had Webberley in my team all pre-season, until a couple of days before lockout when it became obvious he wouldn’t get a game in Round 1 – am keen to get him this week, but after Waters and Maguire’s performances last week, can’t decide which of them to downgrade… Thoughts?
2. Is Adam Selwood a Keeper? Averaging 94 currently priced at $458,300 (my other Mids are Swan, Stanton, Bartel, J Selwood, Barlow with Scully/Howlett on the bench). Or do I aim to ‘upgrade’ him to Gablett or ??????
TIA.
Hey guys, i have both but i reckon swan is better as you can put the c on him with more confidence, especially if you dont have ablett. What are you thoughts on gram? Sell or keep, i have good backup. And strauss, does anyone know if he will get another game soon?
Adam Selwood at $458k ??? .. hardly! Perhaps in SuperCoach.
Wouldn’t be touching that midfield anyway. If you picked A.Selwood to start with then he has to be a keeper, IMO.
Great Article by the way, Toby.. kinda wish i hadn’t settled my midfield so early as i would love to squeeze Hayes in there somehow. Oh well..
I’m interested to hear what peoples thoughts are on how to structure a successful/powerful midfield, etc.
Currently i have 3 premiums up around the 96/97 avg. 1 sitting just on 105, and 2 averaging 111. (No Ablett or Swan)
Although i’m pretty happy with it for now, i can’t help but think i need at least 1 more “Elite” premium to give this comp a crack. ie. a Swan, Hayes, Montagna.. hmmmm
There has been a long argument that Judd hasn’t been a ‘premium’ since really 05ish.
This year however he seems to be pulling pretty big numbers, i’ve noticed he is marking more and also seems to be pretty much untaggable(similar to ablett) – he had 3 port players hanging off him and clocked up another 120 odd with great effect on the game as well.
How do you compare him thus far in 2010 compared to the likes of Swan, Hayes, Montagna & the typical midfield premiums?
@Wilson Oops you are totally correct, I was distracted when writing my previous comment and that is indeed his SuperCoach figures! Correct figures for A Selwood are Avg of 98 and current price = $375,700
@murphinator – I think Judd benefited greatly from missing the first 3 weeks and it seems to have made him even ‘hungrier’ and determined to do well than in previous seasons. Agree he’s similar to Ablett in that he appears to have amazing core strength to evade/escape tackles. However, while I know he’s a totally different type of player, Brown started off the season in a blaze of glory and since injury struck he’s been mostly disappointing…
Anyone think there is any value in Aker at $335k? Seems to be on the up after a slow start. His big price drop predominantly due to his 39 points and injury in Round 3. Anyway, could be a good unique?
@Wilson – possibly, but he’s too old for me to seriously consider him.
Dan and Toby, either one of you looking to get Ablett to fill up your last mid spot or would rather look for value? Seriously tempted after his ‘down’ week but it would likely take a triple trade unless Martin has a couple of good weeks and duncan can squeeze out a couple more games, maybe I’ll save it for finals if I have the trades and need the edge. By saying edge I mean that every other team in my league has him…
any thoughts on Alan Didak?
hey Toby,
Id love your opinion or keeping or selling Gram. I already have nason as maguire on the pine but looking at nason to webberly this week.
If you do think trade, im thinking gilbert, enright or grimes (i think he is playing more midfield now).
much appreciated
Joker, yeah, Ablett will be my last upgrade.
Maguire or Waters to Webberley? Anyone got any thoughts on this, or should I just not do it…
Hey for those looking at bringing in Webberley, i do like the option – Juzz, I would be offloading Maguire before Waters – Waters is playing a defined rebounding role, whereas Maguire is playing full-back, getting plenty of cheap possessions, but it is less likely this will be consistent.
@dtmaster – I would keep Gram – he will be out for 3 weeks and i think this is enough time to cover if you have appropriate cover, and it sounds like you do. His past couple of scores have been affected by injury, but he is a crucial member to the Saints squad, so expect to see him back asap.
@maanco – Didak i a reasonable option, but i cant see him reaching the heights this year of either Hayes or Swan. So far he has shown an ability to remain relatively consistent, but is not providing his owners with too many scores over 100. At the moment, a score of 90-100 seems good for him, whereas with Lenny and Swan, anything under 110 would be disappointing…
@Joker – Ablett will be my last upgrade – i have one spot left for him (assuming Barlow is a keeper…)
@Wilson – I have looked at Aker too, but the answer is no from me. Sometimes it is hard not to get sucked in to the column that reads “(-$110,000) or whatever… but you gotta look at current form, and as it is Aker has been out of touch and has only kicked one goal for the year. I would only bring him in if his form made it worthwhile. I dont want an ex-premium mid-ranged scorer – i would prefer to spend $50k more and get myself a 2010 premium..
Hope this answers a lot of questions – had a busy day so havent had much of a chance to get in front of the computer!
oh noes…. Greg Broughton (foot) – 4-6 weeks…..any advice?
He is worth $362,500 $+6,000 ($-22,700)
I have:
Goddard, Enright Broughton, Duffield, Waters, Maguire, Ellis (Nason, Davis) not much cash and would prefer not to trade, but nason isn’t really the best cover.
But with only 14,000 in the bank it seems its down to:
Brian Lake or Jack Grimes
Rembrandt, It probably depends on how many trades you have left and your planned upgrades. In you backs, were you going to upgrade any of Waters, Maguire or Ellis? If so, trading Broughton might disrupt those plans.
Another thing to consider is that the split round is Round 13 (Freo play in the first week). Therefore Broughton’s injury listed as 4-6 weeks may only be 4-5 games.
Of the trade options you listed I would choose Grimes only because Lake plays fullback and Grimes gets more opportunity to run (and play in the midfield?).
thanks greg, indeed i was planning on upgrading waters and was hoping ellis would perform better for his price tag, but he too may have to go come finals time.
I hadn’t thought of the split round, thanks for that. I think I’ll keep him as i would have and upgrade later.
does anyone know if Grimes back troubles continued through the preseason?
Grimes is fine.
He started a little slow, more to playing on a direct opponent rather than zoneing off earlier in the season but has been building up a head of steam over the last couple of weeks. He’s getting more of a run through the middle and is clearly the go to guy coming out of the backline for the Demons. As far as I’m aware he’s fully fit. He is also a massive gun.
@rembrandt – what about Bock? Seems to have finally overcome his injuries and showed some good form last week. Adelaide defenders will see plenty of the ball for the rest of the season…
@rembrandt – I’ve got Ellis too and while I’m happy with his consistency overall, I was hoping he was consistently a little better! lol
I had bock a few years back and just got too frusterated, this year he has missed two games and only cracked the hunge last week…. 76, 76, 59,52,74,117 – so I didn’t see him as an improvement (which I needed if I was going to Trade)
where as grimes had done a bit better:
93, 94, 81, 82, 58, 128, 79, 112
As with Lake:
55, 96, 111, 64, 80, 111, 84, 110
sorry if i have trolled this brilliant midfield column into a defence discussion.
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