Footy Tragic

This week I wanted to spend a bit more time discussing a theory that I broached on the site a few weeks ago - and this is the theory of trading senior players onto your bench. The thought process behind this concept is the trading in of regular best-22 players into your side priced around the $180,000 - $250,000 price point, with the intent to actually keep them on the bench than actually play them in your own best-22. This theory sounds strange at first, but let me explain - with finals fast approaching, plenty of coaches not only have very few trades left, but plenty are also looking at competing in a finals campaign with very poor bench cover. Unfortunately, at this time of year there are no rookies debuting – ideally, you’d still have a Trengove, Martin or Scully on your midfield bench, a Rockliff, Hitchcock or Henderson in your forwards and a Nason, Silvagni or Maguire in defence. But I’d bet my bottom dollar that there aren’t too many coaches with a trustworthy bench come finals time.

Personally, I have completed my team - in every spot on the field there is a player whom I consider a keeper of at least medium-grade. All my mids are premiums, as are my defenders. My forwards are OK, but in 2010 Chapman has been about the only real premium option, so I’m going to have to be satisfied with mid-tier players. However, my benches don’t read such a pretty story; In defence I am trusting in regular games to Hams and Webberley, in my forward line I have Hitchcock who is fast running out of legs and form, and my mids are appalling – Shuey and Stevens – neither have played the past two games and Shuey is unlikely to be sighted again this year.

So this is where my theory comes into play - my thought is to trade in a mid-priced player, likely underpriced due to recent injury or a brief drop in form, and this player can be used as cover if one of my best-22 players do become injured. It must be noted though that this MUST be a best-22 player you are trading in, NOT an improving rookie who still may be on the verge of selection! Whilst many players may see this trade for bench cover as a waste, personally I believe it may save you trades come finals. Essentially, in finals, a one week suspension or injury to ANY player, whether it Paul Chapman or Beau Waters is just about necessary of a trade – you can’t risk keeping a player only to be bailed out by 20 points, hence making any remaining trades redundant anyway. Therefore, in my scenario I could put Chapman or Waters on the bench for a week, knowing I have a reasonably trustworthy score to come from my mid-priced benchwarmer. He only needs to be used for a week, then the following round Chappy can come back in to score 140 points – whereas if I’d traded Chapman to (for example) Pavlich, he is unlikely to score near the realms of Chapman, meaning I would be missing out on plenty of valuable points come my next finals game.

Obviously everyone is different and this is a strategy that may work for some but not others, but I thought it certainly one worth discussing. This could be the perfect solution for coaches worried about late season resting from the top clubs like Geelong and St.Kilda. This theory also really lends itself to duel-position players. Essentially, you could pick a DP mid/forward in the midfield and then have the ability to swap him between the midfield and forward line as it suits (because let’s be honest, you surely have at least a few DP forwards!).

Below I have listed my best choices between the $180k – $250k price range. I look forward to hearing your comments on the theory and whether it applies to your team and whether it is something you may consider.

Defenders:

Chad Cornes – $246,100, Avg. 62.86 (DP Back/Mid): It is probably bad timing to suggest Chad as he missed this last week with suspension, but he should be back this week to play the Dogs. Whilst his form hasn’t been amazing this year, he is still very capable of scoring reasonably and it will also be interesting to see where the new coach does play him. Defence is his best position, so if playing here he could average about 60-70 points.

Tadhg Kennelly – $217,100, Avg. 68.42: Kennelly hasn’t been nearly as bad as his price reflects – in fact, his awfully low price is almost exclusively thanks to the early injury he sustained in round 9 which saw him finish the game on zero points. He subsequently dropped over $85,000 in three weeks thanks to the rolling average. But after scoring 119 points on the weekend he looks back on his way up.

Midfielders:

Chance Bateman – $248,500, Avg. 65.3: Chance has not been nearly as good a dream teamer in 2010 as he has been in previous seasons, almost exclusively thanks to his role as a tagger. I do still like him for his price tag however, as if he is ever let off the tagger chain he is capable of scoring some very large numbers. Also, he has had a very stop-start season, missing several games through injury and suspension, so part of his scoring woes may be able to be attributed to a lack of consistency.

Chris Masten – $228,200, Avg. 57.62: I’m actually not a huge fan of Masten as a dream teamer as he handballs way to much, but right now, and for the purposes suggested, he does present as a good option. He is two games back from injury now, so is building to a larger game-time. He has scored lowly these past couple of weeks thanks to WCE giving him much smaller roles as he readjusts to AFL pace after his injury. In the run home he should be capable of averaging around 70 points – enough to justify him for the purposes mentioned.

Forwards:

Leon Davis – $236,500, Avg. 62.69 (DP Mid/For): Missed last week with a neck injury, but should return against the Saints. He has had a poor season by his standards, playing exclusively as a forward. He just looks like he is lacking confidence in himself when the ball is in his hands – although he does look a lot like a player who may only need one big game to have a sudden re-emergence. He is certainly not in much form, but he can still score OK and his DP status certainly makes him tempting.

Brendan Fevola – $223,900 Avg. 64: Fev has battled injuries all year and was finally forced to sit out in round 14. He returned against the Saints this week and actually looked to be moving a bit better, although still dropping a few sitters and lacking much chase. Don’t expect a re-emergence of the Fev from 2008/2009, but when Brown returns next week he may find himself able to kick a few more goals when not double teamed.