Footy Tragic
Bargain Tough-Nuts
Note: Don’t forget to check out Toby’s Weekend Wrap-Up from Round 5!
This week I’m looking at two more players who have started the season slowly – this time in the midfield. These are two players who have had a few slow weeks, only to finally hit back on the weekend with some very respectable scores. This means their prices have now leveled out and should be heading upwards each week from now. The two players I am talking about are Domenic Cassisi of Port Adelaide and Jordan Lewis of Hawthorn.
Domenic Cassisi:
Cassisi, Port’s Captain, is a very tough inside midfielder, who over the past two seasons has averaged 93 DT points. The strength of Cassisi as a dream teamer is his amazing tackling ability – in 2009 he averaged a whopping eight tackles per game (that’s 32 points worth!) with a total season tally of 161! Tackling is arguably one of the most important modern-day traits to have in your DT players, and statistically Cassisi is the second best in the league (behind only Brett Kirk), so this is a great trait to be able to rely upon every week. So far in 2010 Cassisi has made 32 tackles (equal 6th in the league), however the rest of his game has been less than ordinary. Over the past two years Cassisi has averaged 22.5 disposals and 3 marks per game, however in the first four games of the year he has averaged only 16.5 disposals (and evidentially only 68 DT points) – clearly well down on his previous years output.
Now I wouldn’t be doing my job if I couldn’t give a reason behind this apparent form slump, so going back to round one (72 points vs North Melbourne) is about the only game I can’t find much reason for – Port played well and Cassisi went head-to-head with Ziebell, however in rounds 2 – 4 we can see more reason for his low output; in round two Adam Selwood shut him down, round three Power were smashed by Brisbane’s midfield, round four saw Port play at Skilled Stadium, and whilst Cassisi was Port’s top scorer, he still did not quite make the ton thanks to a dominant Cats midfield. But watching both Cassisi and the rest of the Port team against St.Kilda on Saturday night he looked much better – 28 disposals, ten marks and five tackles. The team around him also looked much stronger, and now with Boak, Rodan and Pearce all in good form it is much more likely that Cassisi will be less effected by taggers.
To compare this year to the past couple, it is interesting to see that Cassisi has started slowly in both of his past two years; in 2008 he averaged 84 for the first five rounds (before averaging 95 for the rest of the year) and in 2009 it was 81 points for the first four, but averaged 96 points for the rest of the year – and in these remaining games he clocked up a score over 100 on 10 occasions (5 of which were over 120) and only dropped below 90 on five occasions. So from these stats it can be seen that Cassisi is typically a slow starter to the year, meaning that his big game on the weekend could well be the start of a big year for him.
Whilst he is not quite premium material, right now his price seems too low to pass up (he has hit bottom price now, so pounce now if you are ever going to!) – he is capable of scoring some massive numbers, especially with his immense tackling rate. Right now he is already ranked 6th in the competition for tackles, yet hasn’t even hit his strides – and what is even more important about a selection like Cassisi is his uniqueness – he is in only 0.89% of teams, so it is very unlikely you will be coming up against many mates with him in your team!
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1
Average Marks per game: 3
Average Tackles per game: 6.4
Average Disposals per game: 18.8
Breakeven: 97
Average Dream Team Points: 78.6
Price: $351,000 (-$61,000)
Key Stats 2009:
Kick : handball ratio – 0.7 : 1
Average Marks per game: 3.1
Average Tackles per game: 7.7
Average Disposals per game: 22.4
Average Dream Team Points: 94
Jordan Lewis:
Jordan Lewis is arguably the toughest player in the Hawks lineup – and that is a big call when he is running alongside players such as Hodge, Sewell and Taylor. However, thanks to his ferocity to the ball and the ball carrier, Lewis has had a very tough start to the season. Lewis started the year on a good note as the Hawks thrashed Melbourne – in this game he was the best afield and helped himself to 109 DT points, which consisted of 27 disposals – many of which were huge contributors to his team’s large win. Round two saw the Hawks pitted against the reigning premiers Geelong, and like many of his teammates he had a quiet one. The game was played in close (just how Lewis likes it), yet he strangely saw little of the ball and only lay the one tackle. In week three against the Dogs, Lewis had already gained 52 points by halfway through the second quarter and was looking in great form until he was KO’d by Jarrod Harbrow and was left unconscious. He returned briefly at the end of the game for 12 more points but looked completely out of it. This hit did plenty of damage to Lewis – for those who saw it, they would agree how bad it looked – Lewis was left unconscious on the ground and with his eyes still open – it is amazing he even made it back on the field the next week, let alone in the same game. In week four against Collingwood it was clear he was still not 100% recovered from the bump and subsequently spent a lot of time on the bench.
So it is fair to say that Lewis has not had the most appropriate start to the season – he looked great in his first game, and just as good against the Dogs until he was knocked out. This week, against North Melbourne, he looked back into form, having now recovered from the effects of the bump – he scored 112 points and was one of the Hawks better players. The subsequent price drop that has followed his few low scores has now made him super cheap – pre-season Lewis was being talked up as a great prospect for 2010 – he hadn’t missed a beat at training (for the first time in a while) and looked good through the NAB cup. However, despite the fact he was a very popular DT choice in the pre-season, he has ended up in just 1% of teams, making him a very unique pick.
For the past three years Lewis has really improved his game (and subsequently his DT game), and he averaged 94 points in season 2009. In 2009 he averaged 26 disposals and never dropped below 20 disposals all year – a fantastic stat which proves his consistency (in dream team he only dropped below 80 points on four occasions). The one area in his game that really could be improved is his tackling – despite being a great in-and-under player, he only averaged 2.4 tackles per game in 2009 – but I am hoping that the five tackles he laid against the Roos is showing that he is attempting to make this a part of his game (5 tackles was his second best tackling effort in 2009). If he were to make up for his lack of tackling, it would be the fact he averaged over 6 marks per game – a good effort for a midfielder.
The great part of Lewis as a pick is the obvious reason for his price drop – a low-grade injury. It is also good to have been able to see him play two very good quality games on either side of this injury – it shows us that not only did he come into the season in good form, but his latest efforts have also been of quality. There is plenty of expectations on the Hawks this season, so Lewis, along with his teammates, will really need to step up a gear (and soon!) to make this season count, and I expect this is exactly what they will do – with Young, Burgoyne and Bateman all coming back from injury, it shouldn’t be too long before the Hawks find another gear, aiding the likes of Lewis to score higher.
Key Stats 2010:
Kick : handball ratio – 1.36 : 1
Average Marks per game: 6.2
Average Tackles per game: 2.2
Average Disposals per game: 21.8
Breakeven: 83
Average Dream Team Points: 83.2
Price: $349,200 (-$62,400)
Key Stats 2009:
Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1
Average Marks per game: 5.9
Average Tackles per game: 2.4
Average Disposals per game: 26.2
Average Dream Team Points: 94
10 Comments on Bargain Tough-Nuts
Haha, the very 2 players i was intently looking at myself. Nice work Toby, you make great cases for both of them actually.
Another one of interest to me that perhaps doesn’t fit the “tough nut” category, but i’m wondering if you could shed some light on – is Jason Winderlich.
I heavily considered this bloke at the start of the year as a unique mid as he really looked to be hitting his straps and showing signs that he could avg. near the 100 mark, and aided that with a solid preseason performance.
I actually quite like the slick way he plays his footy and runs the lines, reminds of that Kade Simpson-type that goes under the radar and seems to rack up most weeks without much attention, due the fact of taggers concentrating on the likes of Watson, Stanton, etc.
Although, his start to this year has been anything but eye-catching, I think he could be a great buy in a few weeks once/if he starts to show some good form as he has already bled just as much cash as Dom and Jordan and started the year of at basically the same price as a premium.
Thoughts?
Hey,
What are your thoughts on Gray? keep him or sell this week so i dont lose value?
Also are their any mids or forwards rookies to buy atm. The 2 players im unhappy with are Mackay and Gray. If there are ill go one down and one up, preferably mackay up.
thoughts?
Im of the opinion he has to go dtmaster. He hasn’t shown any signs of having a breakout year with his performances so far, and his injuries mean he will be unlikely to get a substantial run in the midfield for a while anyway (which is the main reason I picked him up to start with)!!!
dtmaster, i am really concerned about Gray too – he was totally relegated to the forward line on the weekend and i believe this is mainly fitness based. I guess the ambition through the pre-season was to have him play 2010 as a midfielder, but this injury has stripped a lot of fitness from him… I was initially going to trade out Hall this week, but on further thought am thinking Gray might be a better alternative – he will take a reasonable price drop, and the way he is playing i am concerned as to whether he will be able to score the points to really increase much in value anyway… Whilst he may be a consistent 80 – 100 points (when fit), i cant really see him pulling too many massive scores out of the hat.
Wilson, if i were honest, i’m not a huge fan of Winderlich – firstly, he is not in any sort of good form at the moment, and with the way that Essendon are playing at the moment (and the way Knights is coaching), i wouldnt go anywhere near any Dons players for a couple of reasons – Firstly, they currently dont look like winning many games, and players in non-winning teams are generally not good point scorers. Secondly, Knights is going crazy with dropping players (it seems more like he just picks names from a hat!), and i actually wouldnt be too surprised if Winderlich found himself in the twos this week. He is a very outside player with little defensive skills, meaning he is the style of player Knights will look to pass the blame onto… Also, Winderlich has a very poor injury history – he has recurring issues with his back – something which is every chance to flair up again at any stage…
So sorry for the negative outlook, but i think you could be thanking me later…
Cheers. Gray to davis then Mackay to hayes i reckon. Unless anyone can make a case for another premium mid?
Don’t apologise for your opinion Toby, no dramas at all. You make a few good points about him anyway. Like most people, i just like getting a few different viewpoints on players if i am interested in them.
Knights’ random culling system has me baffled too, don’t worry. Guys like Prismall and Howlett must be scratching their heads wondering what they have to do, as i would’ve thought they were some of Essendon’s better performers over the first few couple of rounds.
DTmaster- Hayes is a great pick, ultra-consistent and has traditionally been a slow-starter so he is surely set to go Bang from here on in. Had him all of last year and he notched a streak of 100+ scores for 10 weeks running! He is probably the cheapest he’ll get so a great buy.
If you want another couple of names thrown up as a proven consistent workhorses then you can’t pass up Kane Kornes at just over 400k or Daniel Cross at about 395k. Although, i think they both have relatively high breakeven’s this week so they might drop even further; but still great value at the moment. Personally, i will be looking at bringing in either of those 2 or Hayes over the next week or so also.
Started the season with Lewis in my team. Great to get a bit of justification for why to keep him, you’ve made me feel much better about my choice.
Also, picked the “aurion” in the unlikely event of winning the prize. Anyone pick the Kulger? Feel like I should have gone with the Hybrid Camry though.
Knights is worse than Laidley used to be from a DT perspective – his selections (as Toby suggested) often appear totally random, even to EFC supporters who think (used to?) they have some knowledge of the team… Replacements for Pears and Reimers (broken arm & broken hand/wrist respectively) are sure to ‘surprise’!!
Finally (really should stop clicking “post” prematurely) I think I’m going to bit the bullet and swap Gray out. Mainly for the reasons everyone else has noted – he’s not moved to the midfield, there are question marks over his fitness, he’s lacked preseason.
Gray + $160,000 is $480,000 odd. Who’re the best around, I think it’s between O’Keefe and Sylvia at the moment. O’Keefe has been so consistent for the last year but I just feel like Sylvia is really ready to explode.
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