It’s about time to start getting serious – I have looked at players having a slow start, those just finding form, those who are elite but pretty cheap, but I think it’s time to talk about some big guns – guys who have been firing all season and whom those with enough cash in the bank and an appetite for the expensive have their eyes set firmly on. I am talking about a man who is averaging 120 points this year and another who is averaging 127 – the two bald superstars from Geelong: David Johnson and Tom Harley… oh wait, Gary Ablett and Paul Chapman (whoops!).

Gary Ablett Jnr:

By the age of 25 years, there is not much this little man from Geelong hasn’t accomplished: Two premierships, a Brownlow medal, Dream Team 2009… The list goes on. Essentially, he is an outright superstar and if you don’t know much about him there is clearly something not right. So far this year he has already given great value to his whopping starting price of $522,000 with an average of 127.67 and only one score under 100 points (a lowly 96 points).

Bald-Cat2 He is widely regarded as the best current-day midfielder, but it is his great ability to not only be a consistent top-tier player, but also a fantastic dream teamer (not always a natural combination). He has perfected the art of handball-receives with his amazing ability to work his way through traffic. He uses the ball well enough, but he has the fitness to run all day and a freakish ability to break free of tackles, which keeps the disposal count growing. Unlike many other top midfielders in the game, Ablett has perfected the art of breaking a tag – in fact, I can hardly remember the last time he was nullified in a game. Being part of a top team, he gets plenty of support from the bigger bodied midfielders around him, who regularly block his opponents to allow him room to move (not that he needs much room). His ability to break a tag has gotten so ridiculous that some teams are not even bothering to tag him anymore, instead deciding to play a similarly attacking footballer on him so they can at least get something out of the contest (Ablett’s one slight is his lack of defensiveness). However, by no means does this adversely effect his scoring. Typically by half time, the opposition have a runner sitting on him (usually to no avail).

Whilst there are plenty of positives about Ablett, there does come some worry with spending over $500k on a player. Ablett has always had his odd injury concerns – nothing ever very significant, but the odd niggle has made him miss occasional matches in the past few years. In 2009 he missed three games and in 2008 he missed four – three of these seven games coming after round 15 in each season, a worrying stat when you rely on a player such as Ablett around finals time. Due to the high quality of the team around him, Ablett is never risked by the Cats, meaning he can find himself on the sidelines for even the most minor strain. He missed round 6 this year with a minor hamstring strain. Also, the other worry with top teams is the resting of players towards finals time – often in the last four rounds of the year, right when we are immersed in DT finals campaigns. This is not to say that Ablett is certain to find himself on the sidelines in round 21, but the concern is certainly there. There is even rumours currently circulating that he is carrying an injury, and the constant innuendo about his possible move to Gold Coast makes things even more unclear.

There is no doubting Ablett’s form, nor consistency. He has one of the highese DT ceilings in the competition, meaning he is regularly capable of scoring well in excess of 120 points – a feat he has achieved already seven times this year (from nine games!), meaning he is the perfect candidate for a regular captaincy! If you are looking at bringing him into your side, ideally next week would be the time to pounce – after two ‘average’ games in a row (where he averaged 100.5 points), his price has taken a heavy hit and will drop further next week. Potentially you could pick him up for around $485,000 at the end of round 11. Whilst I may have scared you off with his injury concerns, there is still no doubting his immense scoring ability – he is still the 3rd highest ranked player in the competition, despite the fact he has missed a game.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 0.72 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 4.6

Average Disposals per game: 34.55

Average Goals per game: 1.9

Breakeven: 153

Average Dream Team Points: 127.67

Price: $505,300 (-$16,700)

Paul Chapman:

Chappy is typically known for two things in DT circles: 1. He is an amazing dream teamer with arguably the highest ceiling in the competition. 2. His hamstrings are made from crepe paper and he will likely miss games at the business end of the season. So he essentially makes for a pretty interesting choice – part of you desperately wants him for his regular high scoring, yet the rest of you knows to avoid the temptation due to his injury history. However, if the man himself is to be trusted, season 2010 has seen his injury woes put behind him. A new fitness coach at Geelong has worked hard with Chappy and his troublesome hammys to make sure he lasts the full season with no more repercussions – and so far, things seem to be going to plan!

So far in 2010, Chappy has not missed a game and is the only player in the competition not to have scored below 100 in any of his games – an amazing feat! As far as point scoring goes, Chapman is leading all comers in DT 2010, sitting pretty as the number one player in the competition. He has had five scores over 120 points, three of which were over 140, proving his amazing scoring ability. His role in the team is predominantly as a midfielder, although he does spend a lot of time across the HFF thanks to his great ball-disposal skills and goal kicking ability. This year has seen him spend more time in the middle, with the likes of Ablett, Varcoe, Stokes and Duncan spending more time in his forward-line role. He is a very solid player and uses his body size to his advantage – like the rest of his teammates, he is very capable of busting through a tackle and takes a very strong mark. He is often used as a wide-receiver of the footy, meaning he is not often relied upon to win his own ball – however he will go in and get it when it is his turn. As is also proven in Ablett’s case, Geelong’s extremely high-possession game plan is ideal for dream team and it sees players like Chappy (and Ablett) treated to plenty of the ball, and like Ablett, Chapman is one of Geelong’s most trusted ball users, meaning he is frequently given the ball by his teammates.

Now back to the worries – as I mentioned before, Chapman claims that Geelong’s new fitness guru has cured his plight with hamstrings, so we have to choose whether to believe this or not before trading him in. The worry is, if the issues really aren’t gone, history suggests that Chapman will miss most of his games at the back-end of the year. For example, these are the games he missed for the past three years; 2009: Rd 8, 10, 19, 20, 22; 2008; Rd 9, 10, 18, 19, 20; 2007: Rd 7-9, 17-19. Get the gist? Knowing that rounds 19 – 22 are DT finals time, Chapman has missed 6 of a possible 12 finals games, including last year’s Grand Final! So if you were to trade him in, you’d want to damn well believe his word!

Despite the above facts, sometime the positives can become too hard to ignore; #1 in DT 2010 (so far), no games under 100 points, in seemingly good condition physically… And there is no doubting his ability on the football field. For those teams gunning for either a top place in their league, or for a new car, Chappy is going to cause a number of sleepless nights – do you take the risk on a player who has a poor injury history, but is the only real consistent forward of 2010 and is averaging a huge 20 points more than the second highest forward, Matthew Pavlich? Personally I love Chappy – in fact, until he ripped my Saints a new hole in last year’s Grand Final, he was my favourite player outside St.Kilda… But I had him in 2009… burned, 2008… burned. For me I think it’s a case of twice bitten…

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.68 : 1

Average Marks per game: 6

Average Tackles per game: 4.1

Average Disposals per game: 29.3

Average Goals per game: 1.4

Breakeven: 157

Average Dream Team Points: 120.1

Price: $492,400 (-$2,100)