Footy Tragic

This week I am looking at the players who have had ordinary 2010 seasons, whether it be due to injury, form or something else. Many of these players will be ones we will focus in on in next year’s pre-season as we try and find the best bargains that money can buy. Obviously with the Gold Coast team coming in, bargain mid-priced players may not be quite as necessary, however I still feel that these players aren’t just in your team to make money, but also contribute to your team with good scores.

The way that players are priced each year is determined by their average from the prior season. This number is then multiplied by a ‘magic number’ to equal the players starting price. There are, however, some flexibility in these rules - players that played zero games can get up to around a 60% discount - although this is where the rule gets messy - some players may only get 20%, or somewhere in between, or some are put all the way down to ‘base price,’ the starting price of a first year player. So it is hard to predict at this stage what sorts of discounts players will get - one thing we can rely on though is that players that have played anywhere between zero and five (or so) games for the year should be dirt cheap in comparison to their potential 2011 output. In 2010 we had players such as Malceski, Waters, Maguire and Hille who all proved to be great bargains for teams that selected them. In this article I will look at the best potential bargains in each position for 2011. Also, if you have any players you believe to be great 2011 bargains, I would love to hear your thoughts below!

Backs:

Andy Otten: Otten was a bit of a DT star in 2009, having a breakout season in which he came second in the NAB rising star to Daniel Rich. He averaged 68 points through the season as a running defender and was a standout player in the Crows’ campaign. Unfortunately, in the pre-season this year he ruptured his ACL, meaning he hasn’t played a single game all year. He should be back fit and firing for round one next year and should be dirt cheap thanks to the fact he hasn’t played at all this year. The Crows are a very good team at rebounding from defence, and with the deferral of Bock to the Gold Coast, there will be plenty of chances for Otten to step up and improve his average from 2009.

Nathan Bock: As we are now aware, Bock is officially the first recruit to the Gold Coast Suns and will very likely take his position at centre half back as he has done at the Crows over the past three and a bit years. When on song he is a great player and a great dream teamer - he has averaged 88 points a game across 2008 and 2009 (the two years where he has played CHB), and has the capacity to pull some pretty big scores. This year he has spent plenty of time injured on the sidelines and has never really had the chance to hit his straps, averaging just 78 points across 13 games. Whilst he won’t be eligible for a discount, I believe that he is capable of scoring much more than what his starting price will likely suggest. Being one of the senior, and therefore most trusted, players at Gold Coast should mean he is capable of winning plenty of ball - we will still need to watch his pre-season though to ensure that the GC gameplan will allow for a high-possession game from a half-back.

Midfielders:

Nathan Foley: Foley has had a shocking run with injuries this year, restricting him to just four games with an average of 71 points - enough to give him a sizeable discount next year! Last year, Foley was fantastic, averaging just over 90 points until succumbing to an injury in round 14. At his best, Foley is brilliant around the clearances and is also a very good outside runner for Richmond - he can sometimes struggle with a tag, however this is often to do with the lack of other decent midfielders at Richmond, something they are quickly changing with the emergence of Deledio, Martin and Cotchin. Whilst he won’t be a player capable of averaging over 100, he should be a very good mid-priced player to both make you some money and score pretty reasonably in the process.

Tim Houlihan: Houlihan has been another player to miss the entire of the year thanks to a series of injuries. He has played several games at WAFL level, but has frustratingly gotten injured every time he is close to senior selection. He is a very capable midfielder and a good DT scorer, however the concern must be his place in the team - I have heard many West Coast fans question why he regularly misses selection as he has previously proven himself as a good AFL player. He finished the 2009 season with a run of seven games through which he averaged 82 points and only dropped below 75 points once and scored over 100 points twice. If he manages to stay on the list until next year and proves himself fit and firing in the pre-season, I believe he could be a great pickup.

Brock McLean: After crossing to the Blues in the off-season, McLean has had a horrible season, which I’m sure he would rather forget. He has again been plagued with constant injuries and has only managed to get onto the field six times for an average of 70 points. At his best, McLean is a great in-and-under midfielder and exactly the type of player needed by the Blues to help give Judd a chop-out. Over previous years at Melbourne (in a team at the bottom of the ladder), McLean has proven himself as a decent Dream Teamer, averaging 83 in 2009, 86 in 2008, 74 in 2007 and 92 in 2006. The problem is, injuries have often struck at some point in many of these seasons and thus he has averaged just 14 games a season since 2006. However, if he can prove to be fit, he could again be worth some close consideration, especially if he comes at a tempting discounted price!

Ruck:

Drew Petrie: Every year we seem to get treated to one bargain in the rucks - next year it looks to be Petrie (assuming he keeps his ruck status). Unfortunately for Petrie, he has played just two games this season after suffering two separate broken feet. Fortunately though, both injuries are just impact injuries and not degenerative ones, meaning that once he has recovered, there shouldn’t be any reoccurrences unless he is incredibly unlucky. It has actually been in both of his games this year that he has gotten his injuries, meaning he has finished the year on a very low average of 50 points. On top of the fact he has a low average, he should also come with a very good discount thanks to the fact he has only played twice this year. Over the previous couple of years, Petrie has been a great player, switching between the forward line and the ruck and has averaged 85 points over the past two years. He should be 100% fit come round one next year and is every likelihood of lining up at CHF for the Roos (his best position), meaning he will be a player almost impossible to neglect from your Dream Team.

Forward:

Chris Knights: Knights was one of the stars of the competition in 2009, playing a new role across the Adelaide half-forward line, not only racking up plenty of ball before it was delivered inside the arc, but also booting plenty of goals himself, including one five-goal haul. Unfortunately, 2010 hasn’t been so kind to him and he has struggled most of this season with hamstring troubles. The latest injury came in his second game back in round 20 when he pinged his hammy after just two disposals, finishing him on four points, a score which dragged his five-game season average down to 66 points. This eventual average will drag his price right down in 2011 and if he can show the form we know he is capable of in the pre-season, then I believe he should be one of the first picked players. There are also rumours that he could be on the move in the off-season to a Victorian club, but time will tell as to whether that is true or not.

Max Rooke: Rooke is an interesting case - he isn’t particularly a great dream teamer, but his low average (36 from one game) will see his price start very low in 2011 and mean that he could be a fantastic 7^th forward option for teams looking to save on a bit of cash. Rooke is a tough-nut half-forward and regularly throws himself onto loose balls with no respect for his own body. Over the past two seasons he has averaged 60 points, so he is not a total waste of space, but I think that if he starts the year priced between $150k and $200k it will be very hard to ignore him.

Ricky Petterd: Petterd was looking likely of becoming one of the breakout players of the year until he badly injured his shoulder in round 6. Until this point of the year he was averaging 80 points, but this mid-game injury pulled his average down to 76 for the year with a likely 2011 discount thanks to him only playing six games. Melbourne are looking very likely of going up another notch next year and becoming a very quality outfit, and up till the point of Ricky’s injury he was one of the Dees’ better players. And now with the news that Brad Miller will be delisted, it is a position that they are desperately crying out for. So it looks like the expected breakout year could be delayed until 2011 - and fortunately it should come pretty cheap!

As the season draws to a halt, I can understand that some of these articles can become a bit irrelevant. That is why I want to write the first of my reflective pieces about season 2010. Over the next week or so, expect articles to shuffle around a bit as we all look back on a season that has been, as well as casting our eyes forward to 2010. Today I will reflect back on my ‘Who’d You Rather’ series from this year, determining who won some of the key battles in hindsight. Next week I will attempt a piece looking ahead to next year and the changes that may arise, whilst Ben will continue to look at the Gold Coast list. Our last official article of the season will be a ‘Season Wrap’ in the place of the ‘Weekly Wrap’ article on Monday week. From there we will certainly be staying active on the site over the off-season and we encourage you to do the same. We will attempt to keep up to date about all the key Gold Coast signings, plus my favourite week in the AFL calendar - Trade Week. We will be on top of the draft too, with our expert on the kids, Dan looking at all the talent for 2011. Articles will be announced soon as we still establish our structure, but remember that Dream Team is really won in the off-season, so having a great DT knowledge base leading into picking your 2011 team will give you the best possible head-start over your mates. And you KNOW that Footy Tragic will be the place for all this info throughout the off-season!

Who’d You Rather: The Hindsight Edition

Round 1: Mark Seaby vs Todd Goldstein

To kick things off, I compared two developing mid-priced ruck options. To this point, Seaby had averaged 104.5 over two games and Goldstein 86.5 and 84% of people said Seaby was the best option. However, from this point on, Seaby averaged 35.5 points over four games, including a season ending mid-game injury in round 6 - a game where he scored just one point! Goldstein proved to be a better option -  whilst he didn’t have a breakout year as predicted, he did go on to average 74.8 for the rest of the year, finishing as the 6^th highest scoring ruck of the season.

Voted: Mark Seaby - 84%

Winner: Todd Goldstein

Round 2: Jarred Brennan vs Jonathan Brown vs Cyril Rioli vs Ryan O’Keefe

This was hardly amazing advice either…  At the time, all four looked amazing, however form and injury have cruelled all of them at separate times through the year. Brown has had abdominal issues and has averaged 73.1 from this point and has missed five games in the process through injury. O’Keefe was great for a while, but after averaging 115 over the first three games, he averaged 82.7 -  at least he hasn’t missed too many games, but nine scores below 80 points have made it an average season at best. Brennan averaged 116 from the first three, and injuries derailed his year - he missed four games not long after this article and struggled to recapture his early form, averaging just 77 points and scoring above 100 points twice. Rioli looked for a while like his 130 points was a blip on the radar, but after averaging 65 points over the next eight games he then hit form, averaging 97 points for the next six - unfortunately he was then hit with a two week suspension on the eve of finals, meaning plenty had to trade him out.

Winner: Ryan O’Keefe

Round 3: Alan Didak vs Steve Johnson

At this stage of the year, neither player had hit form, with Stevie J averaging 86 points and Didak averaging 84. From this point, both have really hit form, with Johnson averaging 99.5 for the rest of the year and Didak averaging 102.5. Didak also played all remaining games, a fact Johnson can’t claim, having missed three games with suspension late in the year.

Voted: Alan Didak - 74%

Winner: Alan Didak

Round 4: Jordan Lewis vs Domenic Cassisi

Two players that were well down on their expected output for the year with Cassisi averaging 68 points to this stage and Lewis 76 points. Immediately after this article both players seemed to hit form with Lewis averaging 98 over the next six weeks, dropping below 100 just once; Cassisi similarly averaged 97 points over the next six. As the season comes to a close, Cassisi has averaged 94.6 since and Lewis has averaged 87.6.

Voted: Jordan Lewis - 70%

Winner: Dom Cassisi

Round 5: Ryan Hargrave vs Paul Bower

We can probably pretend this article never happened - whilst Hargrave was up and down for the remaining rounds, Bower has only played seven games since with an average of 55. Hargrave has at least averaged 84.5 points and only missed the two games, making him the clear winner.

Voted: Ryan Hargrave - 81%

Winner: Ryan Hargrave

Round 7: Lenny Hayes vs Dane Swan This isn’t a particularly difficult one to work out after Swan’s dominant season, although it is worth commenting that you wouldn’t have done too badly picking Hayes either for $40k less. Lenny averaged 113 points since this article with only two scores below 100 and six over 120 points. However, Swan makes these scores look pathetic, averaging a whopping 128 points since, scoring below 100 just once and scoring over 120 on 12 occasions (five of which were over 140!).

Voted: Dane Swan - 73%

Winner: Dane Swan

Round 10: Ash McGrath vs Sam Fisher

I went out on a limb this week and both ended up looking pretty good (until McGrath injured himself). Until the time of this article, Fisher was averaging 82.57 and McGrath 73.25. Since then, Fisher averaged 93 points and McGrath, whilst averaging 122 over the next fortnight, injured himself the next week and went on to score a rather average 55 points for the remaining rounds.

Voted: Sam Fisher - 80%

Winner: Sam Fisher

Round 11: Paul Chapman vs Gary Ablett

This was the battle of the balding Cats and Ablett was clearly the voters choice with 76%. However, since this date, both Cats have been a lot closer than people expected. Firstly, Chappy has missed only one game, whilst Ablett has played every one. Ablett has averaged an impressive 112.9 compared to Chappy’s 107. The fact Ablett has played all games and averaged five points higher makes him the clear winner.

Voted: Gary Ablett - 76%

Winner: Gary Ablett

Round 13: Jack Riewoldt vs Richard Douglas

Two players having clear breakout seasons, with Riewoldt leading the way at this point, averaging 93 compared to Douglas’s 87. However, as seems to happen with younger players, both have waned in recent weeks, with Riewoldt averaging just 68 points since this article. Douglas has still remained a good average of 92 points since the article, suggesting he has been the better performer. Also, for those looking at forwards to replace J Brown or Higgins this week, Douglas could be a great pick, especially with Vince now out for the year - Douglas should line up in his midfield spot.

Voted: Jack Riewoldt - 58%

Winner: Richard Douglas

Round 14: Lance Franklin vs Alan Didak

For the second time this year I looked at Didak - this time up against Buddy in what proved to be the closest vote of the year. To this stage, both players averaged 95 points for the season, however Didak’s was from more matches thanks to Buddy’s couple of trips to the tribunal. From here, Buddy averaged 104 points, however missed one more game from suspension. Didak managed 108 points whilst still playing all seven games between then and now, making him the eventual winner from this article.

Voted: Alan Didak - 54%

Winner: Alan Didak

Round 17: Adam Goodes vs Nick Riewoldt

In the final real ‘Who’d You Rather’  article, I pitched two forward heavyweights against each other -  both had had poor seasons to date with Goodes averaging 86 points for the season and Roo missing 12 weeks with a significant hamstring injury. At the time of writing this article, Riewoldt had played two games since returning, scoring 68 and 71 points. Goodes on the other hand had just played two blinders through the midfield, scoring 158 and 116 points. Both players have continued some good form since though with Riewoldt since averaging 111 to Goodes’ 104. Riewoldt’s DT finals form has been fantastic, averaging 132 points from the two games so far, making him the clear winner over Goodes who has averaged just 86 points in the finals series.

Voted: Adam Goodes - 59%

Winner: Nick Riewoldt

Well, as promised in last week’s article, this week I am going to focus my energy on a couple of players who are probably not on too many coaches radars. I believe that at this time of year you need to be a bit creative to give you the edge over other players - for example, the guy I played this week had 17 players the same as mine, meaning that we really had only five players going head to head! It was ridiculous, and when Bartel and Rockliff dropped in dud games for me, my finals assault took a slip. So what if we had a few more differences between each team? What if I had replaced Gibbs, whom we both had (and who has been underperforming lately) with a player such as Rischitelli, Vince or Rawlings? Each player is a plausible inclusion on their recent form and each would have given me enough points gain to win me the match! Whilst this isn’t necessarily going to be the case in every circumstance, look at common players like Higgins, Bartel, Waters, Malceski and Podsiadly - all of whom are in a current form dip - and look at your options around their price range. Giving myself as another example, five of the remaining six teams in my league have Gibbs, five have Bartel and six have Waters. So what good are these players really doing for me? Essentially Waters is wasted space as he will simply cancel himself out every time I play any one of my opponents. Whereas if I had Newman, Broughton or Symes, I would not compete against an opponent with the same player. Whilst I could be totally screwed if Waters came out with a score of 120 vs 60 from any of the others, I believe it is a risk worthy of being taken, considering the form of any of the three listed above compared to that of Waters. Once again in this article I have taken the brief approach, choosing quantity over quality, and will list a number of players worth considering for your finals X-factor. Whilst I wouldn’t recommend doing this if you only have one trade left, or if you have the week off after winning round one (a trade in week two could still be on the cards if you have no injuries), it could be a great last grab for any teams clutching at their final chance of finals glory. Good Luck!

Greg Broughton - $353,200:

Broughton is best known as the DT rising star of 2009 with his highly impressive scoring in the back half of the year whilst playing a rebounding role in Fremantle’s developing team. This year he started the season OK, averaging 92 points until round 8 when he injured himself. He was then out of action until round 16 when he returned with 71 points -  he followed this up with an ordinary 60 points in round 17. As it turns out though, both these games simply saw him rebuilding his fitness base. The two games since (rounds 18 and 19) have seen Broughton played through the middle, with positions in Freo’s backline already taken up. In round 18 he was best afield versus West Coast (and racked up a handy 120 points), and this week he made his way to 99 points as the second highest scoring Docker. He is in only 8,227 teams and Freo have a reasonable run home with two games at Subiaco versus Sydney and Carlton and an away game to Hawthorn in round 21. If he can stay in the midfield (and there is no reason he shouldn’t), I believe he could continue to average his 100 points for the remaining rounds.

Chris Newman - $359,600:

Whilst Newman may play for a side sitting towards the bottom of the ladder, it is certainly worth considering him. He started the year slowly playing a more dour role, but since the Tigers season hit it’s strides with a win over Port Adelaide in round 10 he has been very consistent. He now plays a rebounding role from defense, much in the mould of Brian Lake or Sam Fisher in that he still takes a strong opposition forward, but also works hard to break free, creating plenty of rebound from defense, as well as cutting off opposition marks. In the past 10 games he has averaged 93 points and has only dropped below 75 points on three occasions. He has also scored himself four tons in that period. In just 8,513 teams, Newman could provide a great defensive option in the run home.

Andrew Swallow - $428,200:

Swallow has had a consistent year this year after a breakout season in 2010, however he has really hit his straps over the past month. After averaging a respectable 91.5 points until round 15, Swallow has gone BANG over the last four matches, averaging a huge 121 points, which includes 160 points in round 17. Swallow is a tough in-and-under player and will regularly win his own ball. He is also a tackle fiend, averaging over eight per game this year - his huge round 17 game consisted of 15 tackles! He is also rarely the focus of taggers, with captain Brent Harvey the much more popular target. The Roos have a very important week ahead of them with their hope of finals on the line, so watch for Swallow to give his all at the contests, winning plenty of his own contested ball and tackling hard.

Scott Thompson - $422,000:

Thompson’s Crows have had a season to forget, but at least he has been relatively consistent for his 6,172 owners, especially over the last month. With the Crows pushing for finals, Thompson has really lifted with his team since beating Essendon in round 14. In that game he scored 146 points and since then he has averaged 116 points. Although the Crows are no chance of making the finals, expect them still to work hard at shaping the top eight - they may be out of the eight, but do still have respect for themselves. With games against Brisbane, Collingwood and St.Kilda remaining, the Crows will really set themselves tasks over the next few weeks - especially against the Saints as it will be played at AAMI stadium. Also, the Crows deficiencies are not coming from their midfield, but from their forward line, so at least Thompson should be capable of winning plenty of ball. Also, Vince now seems to be the first tagging choice for opponents, meaning Thompson will at least get some games where he can be off the leash.

Michael Rischitelli - $403,500:

Rischitelli has had an ultra consistent season and it is a surprise that he is not in more than just 17,051 teams. Across the 19 round season he has picked up 100 or more on eight occasions (including the past three) and has dropped below 85 points only once. Since being moments from being traded to Carlton in the off-season, Rischitelli has really had a breakout season, easily becoming the Lions best midfielder for the year. He is averaging nearly 98 DT points for the year and 105 across the last nine. Whilst he hasn’t been a prolific scorer (only one score over 120), he has been one of the most consistent week-to-week performers of the year. It’d be nice if he could step up another 10 points on his average, but I wouldn’t be counting on it. He could be the perfect pick for someone scared of an ultra inconsistent midfielder in their lineup.

Chris Knights - $356,100:

I mentioned above that you may have to take a risk for a big reward, and Knights certainly is that big risk. He has played only four games this year, the fourth one against the Doggies on the weekend, the first time he has played since round five. Early in the season he was hardly setting the world on fire, but when a player has only played four games for the year his history can count for something. Knights was a revelation for Adelaide last year, going from a ball-winning midfielder to a goal-kicking forward flanker, capable of drifting through the midfield. He is a player easily capable of averaging around 90-95 points and then pulling out a 140-point blinder. Unfortunately though, we have seen very little exposed form from him, causing him to be a bit of a risk. Albeit, he did look decent on the weekend, gaining 91 points for his 17 disposal, 7 mark and 6 tackle game. He should get better as he builds fitness, but perhaps not in time for the Grand Final. If you are not looking to trade this week I’d keep an eye on him, but there may be some less risky picks with just as much upside. He is in only 2,563 teams though!

Adam Schneider - $373,900:

I did an article on Schneider in the pre-season, praising his ability to find space and kick stacks of goals and run through the middle, etc etc… But the sub-text on that article (for those who remember) was that it seems to only happen in the latter half of the year - and that is exactly what we are seeing from Schneids at the moment. Whilst he has had quite a good season, his recent form is what stands out the most for DT purposes. His role is much more of like a midfielder than a forward at the moment - he will start forward, but drifts through the middle for five minute bursts to lose his opponent, then has a very good knack of finding space up forward and then kicking goals. The weekend’s game was the best example as he continually presented in the forward line and was the Saints target in the forward line the same number of times as Riewoldt. But at the same time, he racked up 30 disposals and five tackles in his 154 point game. He has averaged 102 over the past eight games and is in good form with some presumably easy games coming up over the next fortnight against North, Richmond and Adelaide. He is in only 12,028 teams.

Others to consider:

Brad Symes - $340,400:

Came back from injury in round 12 and has averaged 91 points since, including 100 over the last three. Looks in very good nick and is part of an extremely functional and well-drilled backline. Unfortunately, it is the Crows forward line that is stuffed.

Dale Thomas - $376,100:

Has dropped off a little lately but re-found form on the weekend against the Cats with 115 points. He is in 38,180 teams, but still there are plenty of DT coaches not to have caught onto his great 2010 form. As I have said above, look at your opponents’ teams and go from there. Thomas is a great pick if only one or none of your opponents have him.

Colin Sylvia - $430,500:

It only took him all bloody year, but he finally got there, averaging 115 points over the last five games. He has mistreated his owners terribly this year, but it is great to see him bounce back into some form with a role in the Melbourne engine room.

Shane Tuck - $396,600:

He is a guy that has worked bloody hard to stay in this team and he is not about to let anyone take his spot from him. Despite a couple of off games in the last month (a 64 and a 76), he has averaged nearly 100 points for the full season - in fact, despite these two down games, he has scored below 85 twice. He is never going to get tagged and has some big games to round out the season, which he typically loves. Also, he is in just 1,982 teams!

With the finals now on our doorstep, everyone will find themselves in a variety of different circumstances - whether you have made the top four, just missed it, or are sitting outside the eight, you will be working on your own strategies to deal with the next month - a month which will build to that one day in August - the dream team grand final.

As well as everyone having different finishing positions, everyone will also find themselves with varying amounts of trades. We have talked many times on this site about the ‘ideal number’ of trades, but whether you have stormed in with six or limped in with one, you must use them all very wisely. The first issue that will test coaches will be player resting, which will likely happen over the next month or so. Fortunately, the Saints and Hawthorn losses on the weekend will make it very hard for them to rest any players, just as Freo and the Bulldogs will be needing to win every match to snare fourth spot. Collingwood and Geelong on the other hand are another story - whilst Collingwood may play around a bit with their lineup, I can’t imagine them really resting too many stars since they far from have top spot sealed. Geelong is the real DT enemy this year - they have already forecast resting Enright, Chapman and Ablett, after already resting Podsiadly and Bartel this week. We as coaches are going to have to think very long and hard about what to do if one of our stars is put out for a week through finals, and I think it will differ depending on where you sit on the finals table;

• If you are in the top four, and have bench cover, you can certainly consider saving a trade. I probably wouldn’t trade if your opposition the rested player too, but would certainly consider it if you are going in as the underdog.
• If you are ranked 5-8 (whether in the top or bottom league), I would probably trade unless if you have very good bench cover (i.e. a mid priced player who could score 80+ points). You have no second chance here so you need to go in with the best team possible.

When trading in players in the finals series, suddenly trading strategies become a bit different. When through the season, trading in a Swan, Ablett or Montagna are all good picks, it can be worth looking at who your main opposition has in their team. If all of the top four have Ablett and Swan, what is the point of trading them in? All that you will do it match them point for point when ideally you want to be beating them. Look to less common players like Boyd, Tuck, Hayes, Cross or Corey to give you an edge on the opposition. Whilst your player may not outscore theirs, it is a risk worth taking at this time of year. Over the next three weeks, my ‘Who’d You Rather’ article will focus on these less common picks.

This above point can also be made about Captain choices. I know some coaches who intentionally try to pick the same captain as their opposition every week - this is simply just not backing your own judgement and it certainly won’t help you win matches. Whilst Swan is probably going to be the best captain choice through the finals, why wouldn’t you select an in-form Montagna, Goddard, Chapman or Hodge who may be able to give you an extra 20-30 points? Swan only got 114 points on the weekend to Boyd’s 145, proving that the great Dane is not always going to be the BEST option for you every week (make sure to read Dan’s Wednesday article on Captain choices for hints and advice!).

I have already spoken about trades, but to go back over it, I want to remind you to use ALL of your trades! This probably sounds laughable to all the people limping in with one or two, but there is a chance of getting to the final week with one or two still in hand. Whether this means using the spare trades to upgrade your 7^th forward or defender, or possibly just upgrading on your bench, it won’t harm your finals aspirations in any way. And by this same theory, if you are in an elimination final, throw everything you have at it - remember that if you lose this game your season will be over.

At the end of the day, I think there is one rule more important in dream team than any other - and that is showing off, talking yourself up, rubbishing your mates team and being anything but humble in either victory or defeat. It has been a long season and we have finally hit the business end - I must comment that it has been a thoroughly enjoyable year on Footy Tragic. I can speak on behalf of the rest of the boys when I say that we have really appreciated the comments, feedback and ‘robust discussion’ on the site this year and can’t wait to show you the bigger and better site layout that has been in development all year (hence some occasionally short articles!) - hopefully we can get it online before the season closes.

Best of luck to you all over this next month and keep the comments flying - great to hear how everyone is doing in their own personal leagues!

We discussed this a bit last week in the wash up from my article, and it is the theory that at this time of year you shouldn’t bring in anyone but the best. Many ask about the idea of sideways trading and I wanted to confirm the definition of this; a sideways trade is one that nets you little noticeable points value - i.e. a trade to a player who will only score an extra five or so points is considered a sideways trade - especially at this time of year. What we want at this stage is a player who will regularly score at least a ton. There are only a few players who fit this bill, and my recommendation to you as finals approach is to hold tight on sideways trading. If you have any of the frustrating players such as Gia, Higgins, Pods, Pav, Cox, Enright, Waters, Carrazzo, Harbrow (and I’m sure everyone could name a dozen or so more), it is now probably best to hold tight - keep them as your 7^th forward or 6^th mid or whatever and just hope they fire in finals. The grass can always seem greener, but don’t get sucked in to trading one of these guys to someone who is likely going to frustrate you as much.

However, if you can afford a proper upgrade of any of these guys, then I can certainly see the merit - an upgrade is a noticeable points increase, as discussed above. If you have a fair amount of trades left, it could even be a consideration to do a two-for-one trade to bring one of these guys in to strengthen your side. My suggestions of the real premiums are detailed below; please note though I have only picked a couple of midfielders as there are quite a few who could fit the bill.

Good Luck! (and apologies for the lateness of the article!)

Defenders:

Brian Lake - $457,200; season avg. 104.29; last five avg. 118.8:

I think coaches started waking up to Lake as a dream teamer when he scored a whopping 192 points in round 9. At the time I wrote it off as a blip on the radar, never to be seen again. As it turns out, I was proven wrong. Although playing a full-back role, a position typically inhabited by players with no interest in finding the football, he plays a very creative attacking game - and what’s more, he is very capable of shutting down his direct opponent in the process.

Lake is a fantastic reader of the play and is ranked first in the AFL for marks from opposition kicks, showing that he is almost able to play the loose man role in the backline whist still actually having an opponent - he knows exactly when to zone off his opposition and intercept a foray forward. He has brilliant marking skills too, ranked number one in the AFL for marks and number five for contested marks. Even lately, opposition coaches have attempted shutting him down and this became laughable against Carlton when the Blues forwards spent more time trying to spoil Lake from marking, rather than marking it themselves.

Whilst he has had 137 contested possessions for the year (remembering that backmen will typically have a very high contested count), he has had a whopping 235 uncontested possessions, which for a backman is typically consisting of either rebounding out of the backline with no pressure, or kick-to-kick football. Lake loves a bit of kick-to-kick, and it often the middle man when bulldogs play the game - last week he racked up 30 points in under five minutes of play and this is not the first time it has happened. With the Bulldogs killing games early, Lake is able to get plenty of ball later in the game as they chip it around.

By now it is hard not to think of Lake as a dream team star - he has done it consistently now for most of the year, only dropping below 80 twice - both times in the first four games. You could do much worse than bringing Lake into your squad, and being in just 11% of teams, there is a strong chance you won’t have too many opponents who have him too.

Midfielders:

Dane Swan - $539,000; season avg. 124.41; last five avg. 136.6:

There is little more to say about a man who is so prolific in this game we play - he is a star, plain and simple. In fact, looking at his season stats, he has only dropped below 110 points on three occasions, and two of those times in the first five rounds! That’s mammoth! He is a ball magnet, but more so is a ball winner. His incredible fitness allows him to run all day and run into space to pick up plenty of ball from his teammates. He is also great at clearances, regularly seen streaming out of packs with the ball and kicking it long into the forward line. Another stat line he seems to be succeeding at is tackling -  he averages nearly five per game.

Essentially, at this point of the game, if you don’t have Swan you are making it very very hard for yourself. With those clever enough to have kept him captain over the past month would have been treated to scores such as 322, 282, 276 and 266 - all immense figures. Compare this to players using Ablett as Captain over the past month - 216, 218, 162 and 252 - that’s a huge 298 points difference in four games of football!! So it is worth not only thinking about what he may bring to your team as a player, but think about what he may bring to your team as Captain! He could quite easily be the difference between you winning or losing your final.

He is not slowing down either, proving himself untaggable again this year. Fortunately, the likes of Didak, Pendlebury and Thomas are all having good years too, meaning Swan is not regularly at the attention of taggers, and if he is, it is generally not the primary one. Teams have learnt not to let the likes of Didak off the leash as he is much more damaging by boot.

Essentially, I think you need Swan this year. Most years it is not as easy to suggest one player as a necessary addition, but he is simply so far ahead of everyone else it is just ridiculous. If you don’t have him, he may be the guy who squashes your own finals hopes, being your opponent’s captain.

Matthew Boyd - $489,700; season avg. 115.8; last five avg. 125.4:

Boydy is way too unrecognised for his amazing DT skills - in the past month or so he is in fact not too far behind Swan. Since round 11 he hasn’t dropped below 110 and has been over 130 on three occasions. He is Mr. Consistent this year, and whilst his best may not be as high at Swan, he is consistently around a very good level.

One of the best things about Boyd is his lack of owners - he is only in 11% of teams, mainly thanks to his lack of media attention, but this doesn’t make him any less great. He is currently ranked 15^th in dream team and 10^th for disposals in the AFL, despite missing two games earlier in the year - if he had played them and gotten his average in each, he would have been ranked 3^rdfor disposals and 2^nd for dream team - not bad figures at all!

Boyd is another untaggable, but that is mainly because he typically plays a role on opposition mids. Boyd is very good at stopping the tougher in-and-under mids in the competition, but will often try to hurt them the other way with his own fitness. He will often play on players who lack much of a defensive side to their game, meaning that they will rarely stop him from sneaking forward for a goal, as he does quite a bit.

I don’t think Boyd is a better pick than Swan, but he is cheaper by $50k and won’t average significantly less than him for the rest of the season. He is also a lot less common, so if you are looking to beat your opponents rather than be the same as them, Boyd could be a fantastic way to go.

Forwards:

Paul Chapman - $454,500; season avg. 117.25; last five avg. 112.6:

We all know the highs and lows that are Chappy - whilst he is far and away the best DT forward option this year, averaging nearly 20 points better than his nearest opponent, most of those who don’t have him are clearly paranoid about his hammys going ‘ping!’ But so far in 2010, Chapman has missed only the one game, a stat which certainly goes against what history would suggest of him.

Chapman claims that Geelong’s new fitness guru has cured his plight with hamstrings, so we have to choose whether to believe this or not before trading him in. The worry is, if the issues really aren’t gone, history suggests that Chapman will miss most of his games at the back-end of the year. For example, these are the games he missed for the past three years; 2009: Rd 8, 10, 19, 20, 22; 2008; Rd 9, 10, 18, 19, 20; 2007: Rd 7-9, 17-19. Get the gist? Knowing that rounds 19 - 22 are DT finals time, Chapman has missed 6 of a possible 12 finals games, including last year’s Grand Final! So if you were to trade him in, you’d want to damn well believe his word!

Also, Bomber Thompson has signalled he will be resting his stars over the next month or so, putting further doubt into the minds of many. But all this aside, perhaps we have to look at the positives - you won’t win dream team without taking risks and Chapman is certainly a big one. He doesn’t appear to be carrying any injury and we know that he would certainly have been rested if he was. I really like him as a pre-finals trade. Just before (or maybe after) week one after assessing all the current media about him. I have a gut feeling that all will be OK, but still, you would want to have some fair cover. Personally I don’t have him, but I will shortly be doing the maths to find out how possible trading him in is.

When choosing a new player for your squad, you are typically targeting a player who presents good value for money. Rarely will you trade in a player who is at his peak price - often you will look to players on their way into some form, or perhaps a player who we know is talented, but simply has had some poor recent form. It is however a precarious balancing act as you want to make sure you are not trading a player who has outplayed his abilities two weeks in a row, and nor do you want a player flying down in value, only to continue the trend after you have traded him in. So it is important to discover that particular equilibrium between a bargain and a booby-trap. Therefore in this article I will compare two players of similar standing in today’s game - one is a superstar who has had an average season until late, whilst the other was an early season star before an injury put a serious dint in his price - today I will be looking at Adam Goodes and Nick Riewoldt.

Adam Goodes:

Up until a couple of weeks ago, Goodes’ season could probably be considered a pretty average one - he has rarely torn a game open, as has been his trademark in previous seasons, and he has kicked no more than four goals in a game - a feat he has only achieved once, against the Dogs. Dream Team-wise he has also been ordinary, topping 100 points only four times with scores of 100, 102, 103 and 106 - hardly anything too amazing. His one saving grace has at least been consistency - he has averaged 86 points and has dropped below 80 only three times, meaning that 80% of his games have seen him score between 80 and 110. It has been Goodes’ role that has been the main cause for his diminished form - in a Sydney team lacking Barry Hall, Goodes has resumed the CHF mantle for the team - a position that is particularly hard to play, especially in a team such as Sydney that plays most of it’s matches at the SCG - a small ground that often sees the ball kicked over the head of the centre-half forward. He has played the role well, but has far from shone, with many critics suggesting he needed a move back to the midfield to reinvigorate him. Fortunately, in round 15 this is exactly what coach Paul Roos did.

Goodes started the game against North Melbourne in the centre square and dominated from start to finish - he racked up 33 disposals (including 20 kicks), 11 marks, 5 tackles and also snagged three goals when he drifted forward late in the game. His form was stunning, and finally we saw the Goodes of old, the Goodes who has won two Brownlow medals playing through the midfield as both a ruckman and a ruck-rover. The worry after this game was whether he would start the same way the following weeks against Carlton, or whether it was just a ploy by Roos to play Goodes into some form. Fortunately, the same role was given to Goodes against the Blues and it had similar effects, with him snaring another 25 disposals, 7 marks, 5 tackles and a goal. So over the past fortnight, he has averaged 137 DT points - an incredible 51 point differential to the rest of his season!

Now not for a minute am I suggesting that Goodes will likely average 137 for the remaining rounds, but he is certainly playing in a style that will unlikely see him drop below 100 points on too many occasions through the remaining rounds. In fact, if Goodes continues his midfield role for the remaining rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to average over 110 per game. But that is precisely the issue - WILL Goodes continue to play in the guts for the remaining rounds, or is it purely a sporadic role given to him to play him into some form? In a way, it wouldn’t be a huge loss if you did trade him in and he went back to averaging around 90 points (much better than plenty of other options), but that is not the point! If you trade him now as a Sydney Swans midfielder, you want it to remain this way for the remaining rounds - and this is exactly why you would be paying a premium on him from where he was a couple of weeks ago.

I think the best way to gauge Goodes’ role for the remaining rounds it to look at the rest of the team, assessing who could possibly play his CHF role if he was to permanently move to the midfield. Firstly, the Swans main other tall options are Jesse White, Bradshaw and Henry Playfair - Bradshaw is injured and is expected back in 2-3 weeks; Playfair will likely miss the rest of the season, whilst White impressed on the weekend after being a late inclusion for the Swans. So, the other tall timber looks average, but I am pinning my hopes on the role he played against Carlton on the weekend - he played almost equal time in both the midfield and at CHF, almost like a resting ruckman. When he was in the midfield, White was the main target, whilst small forwards such as McGlynn stepped up. Also, injuries to midfielders McVeigh and Smith could see Goodes spend more time on ball - the role given to Bolton on a HFF also opens up another spot. So, in summary, I do like his chances of spending at least 50% of game time on the ball - seemingly enough to see him clock up the ton.

Despite two big games in a row, Goodes could still be a bit of a risk, but I think that because of the large amount of potential he offers, he is worth the price tag. As I stated earlier, his form at least hasn’t been shocking as a forward, but as a midfielder he would certainly be much more valuable. It has been a year of poor, inconsistent forward options, so hopefully Goodes can offer a reprieve to plenty of stressed coaches in the latter parts of the season. His price is on the up, so now is as good a time as any to pounce!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio - 2.2 : 1

Average Marks per game: 7.4

Average Tackles per game: 2.5

Average Disposals per game: 18.9

Average Goals per game: 1.87

Breakeven: 18

Average Dream Team Points: 93

Price: $383,700(-$51,100)

Nick Riewoldt:

After round two, when Riewoldt kicked seven goals against the Kangaroos, he looked to be the in-form player of the competition and, for the first time in five years, was coming off a complete pre-season and looked a million dollars. Then, as everyone will know, round three saw him tear his hamstring from it’s tendon early in the game, finishing him on 20 points and subsequently putting him out of action for three months and a day, all the way to round 15. He has now played two games, and understandably is still finding his feet after such a long layoff. Fortunately though, Nick is a professional and has returned in very good physical condition, just as he has done, despite injuries, in round one of the past five years. And just like these two games, he has taken some time to adjust his fitness and get to a good pace, then almost like clockwork, three or four games back and he is once again in dominating form. Since injuring his hamstring, Roo has dropped $113,100 from his starting price of over $450,000, now making him a very appealing buy. But can he recapture his form in time for DT finals?

Whilst previous years haven’t seen Nick injure himself quite so severely, he has regularly come into the season underdone - whether it be a pre-season knee injury or shoulder troubles, but he always bounces back very quickly after about 3-4 games of low game time and adjusting to the pace. In 2009, he averaged 78 for the first three games before averaging 106.5 for the rest of the season. In 2008 he averaged 75 for the first five games and 99.4 for the remaining rounds. 2007; 71 for the first four, 99.3 for the remaining. 2006; 86 for the first five and 96.7 for the full season. So going by his history, we should hopefully expect Nick back scoring over 100 in around round 18 - the week before of DT finals. Whilst it is a more significant injury he is returning from, he has at least been able to participate in full training for the past month, meaning he shouldn’t be too far behind the 8-ball, especially considering the amount of work he puts in on the track.

So far, he has played two games and they have both been reasonable -  he has played only around 60% game time in each, meaning  he hasn’t had much of a chance to get much of a rhythm going, and nor has he had much of an opportunity to score much higher than he has. He is presenting well and is still going for the kamikaze marks - his main worry looks to be kicking at goal, but the fact he was confident enough to kick one from 50 metres against the Pies shows that he is winning the mental battle. His game time should begin to ramp up over the next fortnight - normally his game time is around 90%, so he is playing well below his usual TOG, suggesting there is plenty of improvement to come. The Saints also have one of the easiest draws for the rest of the season, meaning he should have many opportunities to rip apart a game - the Saints play Hawthorn this week, then after that it’s Essendon, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide - all bottom-eight sides.

There is no doubting that Nick is a risk, but I believe that he has plenty of upside in him. Clearly he is a star player and his best is simply amazing - the query is whether he will return to this sort of form this year. Whilst I believe we won’t see him in the sort of form he started the season in, he does have enough weeks remaining to really make a statement before the Saints embark on their finals series. He will also provide your team with a good dose of x-factor - unlike most of the other high-scoring forwards, Riewoldt won’t be in too many teams. Whilst there will be a large number who jump on him over the next month, it must be remembered that plenty of coaches will be down to their last couple of trades and are probably unlikely to be able to fit him into their squad. He probably carries more risk than any other forward at the moment (Chappy included), but I also believe his upside is well and truly the greatest.

Key Stats 2010:*

Kick : handball ratio - 1.3 : 1

Average Marks per game: 8.5

Average Tackles per game: 2

Average Disposals per game: 17

Average Goals per game: 3.25

Breakeven: 131

Average Dream Team Points: 98.5

Price: $355,000(-$113,100)

*(Stats do not include his round 3 game where he injured his hamstring 20mins in)

This week I wanted to spend a bit more time discussing a theory that I broached on the site a few weeks ago - and this is the theory of trading senior players onto your bench. The thought process behind this concept is the trading in of regular best-22 players into your side priced around the $180,000 - $250,000 price point, with the intent to actually keep them on the bench than actually play them in your own best-22. This theory sounds strange at first, but let me explain - with finals fast approaching, plenty of coaches not only have very few trades left, but plenty are also looking at competing in a finals campaign with very poor bench cover. Unfortunately, at this time of year there are no rookies debuting - ideally, you’d still have a Trengove, Martin or Scully on your midfield bench, a Rockliff, Hitchcock or Henderson in your forwards and a Nason, Silvagni or Maguire in defence. But I’d bet my bottom dollar that there aren’t too many coaches with a trustworthy bench come finals time.

Personally, I have completed my team - in every spot on the field there is a player whom I consider a keeper of at least medium-grade. All my mids are premiums, as are my defenders. My forwards are OK, but in 2010 Chapman has been about the only real premium option, so I’m going to have to be satisfied with mid-tier players. However, my benches don’t read such a pretty story; In defence I am trusting in regular games to Hams and Webberley, in my forward line I have Hitchcock who is fast running out of legs and form, and my mids are appalling - Shuey and Stevens - neither have played the past two games and Shuey is unlikely to be sighted again this year.

So this is where my theory comes into play - my thought is to trade in a mid-priced player, likely underpriced due to recent injury or a brief drop in form, and this player can be used as cover if one of my best-22 players do become injured. It must be noted though that this MUST be a best-22 player you are trading in, NOT an improving rookie who still may be on the verge of selection! Whilst many players may see this trade for bench cover as a waste, personally I believe it may save you trades come finals. Essentially, in finals, a one week suspension or injury to ANY player, whether it Paul Chapman or Beau Waters is just about necessary of a trade - you can’t risk keeping a player only to be bailed out by 20 points, hence making any remaining trades redundant anyway. Therefore, in my scenario I could put Chapman or Waters on the bench for a week, knowing I have a reasonably trustworthy score to come from my mid-priced benchwarmer. He only needs to be used for a week, then the following round Chappy can come back in to score 140 points - whereas if I’d traded Chapman to (for example) Pavlich, he is unlikely to score near the realms of Chapman, meaning I would be missing out on plenty of valuable points come my next finals game.

Obviously everyone is different and this is a strategy that may work for some but not others, but I thought it certainly one worth discussing. This could be the perfect solution for coaches worried about late season resting from the top clubs like Geelong and St.Kilda. This theory also really lends itself to duel-position players. Essentially, you could pick a DP mid/forward in the midfield and then have the ability to swap him between the midfield and forward line as it suits (because let’s be honest, you surely have at least a few DP forwards!).

Below I have listed my best choices between the $180k - $250k price range. I look forward to hearing your comments on the theory and whether it applies to your team and whether it is something you may consider.

Defenders:

Chad Cornes - $246,100, Avg. 62.86 (DP Back/Mid): It is probably bad timing to suggest Chad as he missed this last week with suspension, but he should be back this week to play the Dogs. Whilst his form hasn’t been amazing this year, he is still very capable of scoring reasonably and it will also be interesting to see where the new coach does play him. Defence is his best position, so if playing here he could average about 60-70 points.

Tadhg Kennelly - $217,100, Avg. 68.42: Kennelly hasn’t been nearly as bad as his price reflects - in fact, his awfully low price is almost exclusively thanks to the early injury he sustained in round 9 which saw him finish the game on zero points. He subsequently dropped over $85,000 in three weeks thanks to the rolling average. But after scoring 119 points on the weekend he looks back on his way up.

Midfielders:

Chance Bateman - $248,500, Avg. 65.3: Chance has not been nearly as good a dream teamer in 2010 as he has been in previous seasons, almost exclusively thanks to his role as a tagger. I do still like him for his price tag however, as if he is ever let off the tagger chain he is capable of scoring some very large numbers. Also, he has had a very stop-start season, missing several games through injury and suspension, so part of his scoring woes may be able to be attributed to a lack of consistency.

Chris Masten - $228,200, Avg. 57.62: I’m actually not a huge fan of Masten as a dream teamer as he handballs way to much, but right now, and for the purposes suggested, he does present as a good option. He is two games back from injury now, so is building to a larger game-time. He has scored lowly these past couple of weeks thanks to WCE giving him much smaller roles as he readjusts to AFL pace after his injury. In the run home he should be capable of averaging around 70 points - enough to justify him for the purposes mentioned.

Forwards:

Leon Davis - $236,500, Avg. 62.69 (DP Mid/For): Missed last week with a neck injury, but should return against the Saints. He has had a poor season by his standards, playing exclusively as a forward. He just looks like he is lacking confidence in himself when the ball is in his hands - although he does look a lot like a player who may only need one big game to have a sudden re-emergence. He is certainly not in much form, but he can still score OK and his DP status certainly makes him tempting.

Brendan Fevola - $223,900 Avg. 64: Fev has battled injuries all year and was finally forced to sit out in round 14. He returned against the Saints this week and actually looked to be moving a bit better, although still dropping a few sitters and lacking much chase. Don’t expect a re-emergence of the Fev from 2008/2009, but when Brown returns next week he may find himself able to kick a few more goals when not double teamed.

There is always one position every year which simply stinks - whilst in 2009 it was impossible to find a good defender, 2010 has been a year where the forwards have stunk it up. Early season guns Riewoldt and Brown sustained long-term injuries; Gia, Higgins, O’Keefe and Sylvia couldn’t sustain their early form; Buddy keeps getting suspended; Barry Hall peaked in the pre-season, and Chapman’s hamstring has finally gone ping! They are some shocking stories for players featuring in plenty of Dream teams - unfortunately, inconsistency isn’t curable - a sideways trade looks to cause you just as much pain, but just with a different pain. There are some players now looking like spending a further four-or-so weeks on the sidelines, and at this time of year, this can be a very big problem. Jonathon Brown is now out until at least round 16, Stevie J has been given a four week ban, and Jarrad Waite three. Many coaches will debate what to do with these players, with similar worry surrounding the likes of Chapman, Higgins and Sylvia - all who should return this week (hopefully…). So I thought it may be time to propose two options hat could hopefully fill one of your empty spots for the remaining nine rounds - both are in good current form and priced under $400,000, making them somewhat gettable. I am talking about Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin and Alan Didak, two of the few forwards to be averaging over 100 points across the past three games.

Lance Franklin:

Like most other forwards, Buddy’s season has been an inconsistent one, although this has been little to do with form - through a series of separate high bumps, Buddy has spent a total of four games on the sideline through suspension, meaning he has played nine games out of a possible 13 - frustrating for any owner! Although, if looking for positives from his season, despite his time on the sidelines, he has still been consistent with his form, averaging an impressive 95.11, and only dropping below 80 points twice (a 67 and 74 in his first two games of the year). In fact, since these two games (where Hawthorn were convincingly beaten) he has averaged 102 points - second of all forwards to Paul Chapman.

So with such an ability to find himself in front of the tribunal, why should you take the punt on Franklin? Well, whilst I can’t guarantee you anything surrounding the tribunal (especially since they proved themselves a farce with the Steven Baker decision!), what I can tell you is that both he and Alistair Clarkson have made public statements, commenting that Franklin will be working hard for the remaining rounds to avoid making any contact with the heads of his opponents. We can help by simply keeping our fingers crossed. Despite his recent suspension record, as I stated earlier, his form over the past month or so has been fantastic - in fact, dream team-wise he has been the third best forward across the past five rounds, behind only Chapman and Jack Riewoldt. And just in watching him, his form has been obvious - and those who saw his game against Essendon last week will agree - he didn’t just get 130 DT points and kick five goals, but it was the way he went about it that was impressive. Unlike last year, where he spent the whole year carrying injuries and therefore out of fitness and form, he is now running at full pace and finishing off games in good condition - essentially, he is back to his dominating best.

On his day, Franklin is close to impossible to stop, and as shown in the Essendon game, Hawthorn will go to great lengths to ensure he is kept in the game - they played Beau Muston in the forward line, giving him the job of keeping Fletcher away from Franklin, meaning the less superior Hocking was given the job on Buddy - I assume this will be a tactic used more this season due to how successful it proved to be. Franklin now also has the fitness base to be able to run far off his opponent - he has the tank to allow him to spend plenty of time up of the wings - a tactic that doesn’t just wear out his opponent, but also one which allows him to rack up even more disposals through the midfield.

It is strange, but due to Buddy’s suspension record this year, he has flown somewhat under the DT radar - almost every week where coaches may be looking to bring a forward in, he has been suspended. This has left him in just 23% of teams - still a large number, but not nearly as large as seasons past where he has easily cracked the 50% mark. If he can stay on the park he is an extremely consistent player, and as he has shown on several occasions this year, he can easily crack the ton. I really like him as an option - especially with the amount of poor form and inconsistencies in the forward line this year - it could be nice to have a player whom can actually be relied upon most weeks to perform.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio - 1.7 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.1

Average Tackles per game: 3.4

Average Disposals per game: 17.9

Average Goals per game: 3.3

Breakeven: 59

Average Dream Team Points: 95.11

Price: $386,500(+$31,600)

Alan Didak:

In 2009, Didak was one of the most prolific DT scorers, with a five week stretch of games in which he averaged a huge 147.2 points (all five games netted over 120 points each). It was a series of games that showed how much DT potential Didak has - until that point he had been a very good dream teamer, but scores like that stamped him as elite. Unfortunately though, in 2010, just like most other forwards, Didak’s form (or at least his DT scoring) hasn’t been close to that he experienced last year - so far he has averaged 94.17 points a game, but has had only one game over 120 points (last week). 2010 has been more of a season of consistency for Didak, rather than sporadic mega-scoring like in 2009. Although only cracking 120 once, he has still made it to 100 on five occasions and only dropped below 80 twice (a 52 and 79).

I talked about Didak earlier in the year, blaming taggers for his form, and quite possibly, the same diagnosis can be blamed for his current scoring patterns - almost every week he gets the number one tagger, although as the season has gone on, he has proven an ability to work through the tag. This week for example, Didak was tagged by Nick Smith, Sydney’s number one tagger, but was still able to reach a respectable 89 points. Smith followed him all game very closely, but at each sign of congestion, Didak worked hard to get behind the packs and get his hand on the clearances, often losing Smith in the congestion. It is this sort of hard work that will see him continue his average for the remainder of the season.

Unlike Buddy, Didak is more a midfielder who spends occasions in the forward line, rather than the other way around. Obviously, this can’t be a bad thing - in fact, due to his duel roles he averages 1.75 goals and 23.5 disposals a game - both very good statistics. Collingwood isn’t a very bad team either - this time of year, the players you want are the ones residing in the teams atop of the ladder and Collingwood is only half a game off ladder-leaders Geelong and St.Kilda, meaning that their key playmakers (such as Didak) are the ones you want in your team.

As I said at the start of this article, I am chasing a player who is consistent. Too many forwards this year are producing scores from every end of the scale and personally I am sick of it. Didak therefore is a good choice - whilst it seems he will rarely produce the 140+ point games his 2009 season became known for, he is also rarely producing many games sub-eighty points. His form also appears to have been building lately, suggesting that he could come home with a bit of a flurry in the final rounds.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio - 1.7 : 1

Average Marks per game: 3.4

Average Tackles per game: 3.25

Average Disposals per game: 23.5

Average Goals per game: 1.75

Breakeven: 87

Average Dream Team Points: 95.11

Price: $393,300 (-$58,000)

Well, this week the topic is probably no huge surprise - with the highly unfortunate injury to young Carlton star Matthew Kruezer, I will look at some of the better trade options for those 44,586 coaches with him in their side. Due to the fact he only managed 5 points before falling with injury, his price will severely drop - likely to be as low as $300,000. Therefore, taking into account that everyone won’t have a lazy $100k sitting in the bank for a straight upgrade to Sandilands, I am going to look at some options at a few different price-points.

Aaron Sandilands: Big 211 has been the ruckman of the competition so far this year - at his towering height and newly acquired marking skills, he is close to impossible to beat for many ruckman. In the early years of his career, he was simply a tall guy who could tap the ball at stoppages, however he has greatly developed in recent years to also become a fantastic midfield option for Fremantle too. He averages 17 disposals and 36 hitouts a game, showing it is close to impossible for him to score below 80 (something he has done only once so far this year). He is very consistent and capable of big scores, making him the number one ruck target for your team this year.

Paddy Ryder: After a slow start to the year, where he averaged just 69 points for the first five rounds, Ryder has really turned his form around, averaging 106, including no scores under 90 points. Essendon have been rotating their rucks quite a bit through the forward line (however, Ryder’s time in the ruck has been up the past couple of weeks due to Hille’s injury) - this means that Ryder is often capable of quite a few disposals, as well as snagging a few goals. He has averaged 12 disposals, 19 hitouts and one goal a game - but where he really builds up some points is in his 5.25 tackles per game (over 20 DT points worth). Ryder epitomises the ideal new-age ruckman; he is tall, fast and agile, capable of running all day and essentially playing as an extra midfielder. He is the most expensive ruckman at the moment, but his current form can certainly justify his price.

Dean Cox: Coxy has had a decent year without being terrific - he started the year well underdone, returning from injuries that cut his 2009 campaign short. Because of this slow start, he averaged just 67 points for the first four rounds and subsequently dropped $93,800 from his huge starting price. Since round five, Cox has started to build some form and fitness back and it has helped him turn his scoring around. However, it should not be expected we will see the Cox of 2007-2009 return now that Naitanui is in the side - Woosha (John Worsfold) is giving NicNat the most time in the ruck, playing Cox forward more often then not. This has certainly dropped Cox’s scoring ability - he has averaged well over 100 the past few years, but in 2010 he has averaged just 85 points (94 not including the first four rounds), which includes only three scores over 100 (102, 108 and 103). His current price is probably all that he is worth, unless the long season starts to take a toll in Naitanui, which wouldn’t be surprising. The hope would be that as the season progresses, Cox can spend more and more time in the middle, pushing his price up - however, as it stands, Cox is probably the best of the mid-priced ruckman - he is no longer a premium.

Shane Mumford: I gave Mummy a bit of a wrap two weeks ago and it still stands - after averaging 100 points over the past four weeks, he has become a very viable option. He plays the game with  a huge amount of aggression, tackling hard and getting plenty of contested ball. He has been in somewhat of a purple patch since Seaby injured himself a few weeks ago - since becoming Sydney’s number one ruck he has averaged 7 tackles, 35 hitouts, and 13.5 disposals a game - all very much up on his stats from earlier in the year when he was second fiddle to Seaby. This form shouldn’t just be temporary either - Seaby isn’t due back for a couple of months and the only other viable ruck on Sydney’s list is Mike Pyke, who certainly isn’t setting the world on fire. Whilst Mumford is possibly becoming a bit pricey, I think he has the runs on the board to suggest consistency - he plays the game with huge intent, so is not simply going to drift in and out of games. I see him as just as good an option as Cox.

Kepler Bradley: Bradley is a very left-field option, but currently he is averaging the fourth best score of all ruckman, so is certainly worth discussing. He has always been a much-maligned player known for his flailing limbs and often used as a whipping boy for Fremantle fans. However, this years things seem to have changed; he came into the squad for his second game in round 9 for the suspended Michael Johnson and looked very good. He is playing as Sandilands’ second fiddle in the ruck, but also playing as a full-forward the rest of the time - the four goals he kicked against North Melbourne were the difference in round 10 and he doesn’t seem to have looked back since. He has averaged 80 points, however hasn’t scored over 100 once which is a slight worry - at least the consistency is there for him to build upon. He could certainly be worth considering, although I don’t know how many dream teamers could actually stomach trading him in (I threw up twice when writing this article!).

Other Possibilities:

Angus Graham: Having his breakout season and priced a little over $300k. His tackling was a highlight early (he averaged 7.5 for his first three games), but has only laid three since. He is really coming of age, but I worry he may score sporadically alongside Richmond’s form.

Mark Jamar: Jamar has been one of the biggest improvers of the year, although his DT scoring hasn’t been quite as impressive. I really like watching the Russian go about it as he is one of the big reasons for Melbourne’s rapid rise this year. Unfortunately though, he is averaging just 72 DT points with only one game over 100 - you would be better looking at one of the above options.

Kurt Tippett: Adelaide have been terrible this year and the delivery to this young man has far from helped his case. But at the back of everyone’s minds, surely people are questioning whether Adelaide will bounce back in the second half of the year - players are starting to return from injury and they do look OK in bursts. If they get going, Tippett’s price may suddenly jolt upwards, but is it a risk you’re willing to take?

This week I will look at two forwards who each started the season under $330,000, averaged less than 80 points for the first 6-8 rounds of the season, yet have clocked up an impressive 111 point average over the past five rounds. So perhaps I am jumping on these two dynamos a couple of weeks to late, but sometimes it is too hard to ignore players in such breakout form. The two players I talk of are Richmond’s new saviour, Jack Riewoldt, and Adelaide’s own rising star, Richard Douglas.

Richard Douglas:

It’s fair to say that the first time Douglas scored a ton against Richmond in round seven I was a skeptic, in fact I singled him out as a ‘blip on the radar’ in my Weekend Wrap. However, in all but one game since then he has scored at least 115 points, becoming Adelaide’s most consistent and in-form player. From rounds 1 to 6, Douglas was playing predominantly as a forward with cameo roles through the midfield - in this time he averaged just 63 points. However, since round seven and his more permanent move to the midfield, he has averaged a very good 111 points.

The beginning to Douglas’ career has been a slow one - he is already 23 years of age and is in his fifth year of AFL football. His early career has been played mainly on the half-forward flanks, often as a defensive forward. His strength is in-close football, a fact that has helped him to an impressive tackle average, as well as a good ability to win his own ball in a contested situation. As a junior, Douglas was a midfielder with a good ability to find the pill - something which he finally looks to be matching at AFL level. I have personally found Douglas a very one-dimensional footballer over his first few years - he is good at the grunt work, but has shown very little flair and has never threatened to rip a game open. Things have certainly changed lately, and I have been watching him closely - his addition to Adelaide’s midfield is mostly due to their depth of injuries, however I cannot imagine Neil Craig moving him from here, even if they do all return.

He suddenly has a bit more excitement to his game, winning his own ball and running it up the wings - he is breaking through packs and delivering the ball into the forward line as if this has been his role for five years, not five games. He is also yet to gain the attention of taggers - lately, Thompson has been the target, whilst McLeod and Vince also find themselves being shut-down often. One of Douglas’s more impressive stats is his tackles - averaging just two per game until round 6, he has averaged five per game since - 12 points in difference. His kick to handball ratio is also strong - nearly two kicks for every handball since round 7.

Whilst Adelaide themselves are not going very strongly, Douglas seems to be leading their now young midfield. I also don’t believe that Adelaide are as bad as their form suggests - they did get thrashed again on the weekend, but they were still competitive through parts of the game. Also, plenty of their key players are either returning from injury or coming into form, suggesting a few more wins won’t be far away. Senior players will continue to either retire or be wrapped in cotton-wool in preparation for 2011, meaning that the younger players such as Douglas are going to be left with plenty of responsibility. He is probably a bit overpriced compared to a few weeks ago (his price has risen $125,400 since the start of the year), however he is one of only a few forwards who have averaged over 100 points for the past five weeks. He will also present as an uncommon selection for your team approaching finals - he is in the fewest amount of teams of all top-20 forwards. You could certainly do much worse than him for the remaining rounds - he is certainly showing no signs of slowing down.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio - 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.8

Average Tackles per game: 3.4

Average Disposals per game: 20.5

Average Goals per game: 1

Breakeven: 55

Average Dream Team Points: 87

Price: $414,400(+$125,400)

Jack Riewoldt:

There were never too many doubts about whether Riewoldt would become a good player, but the worries were more about when - he plays in the forward line for the bottom team of the competition and has become known (in his short career) for being a very selfish player - something which certainly slows down his development. But in the past several weeks we have witnessed Riewoldt getting better and better every week. I sat behind the goals last week at Etihad Stadium as he kicked himself six goals against the Saints - and even the great defensive side that is St.Kilda had few answers for him. He has amazing strength for a player of his age - not that it looks like it - but watching Sam Fisher and Jason Blake double-teaming him, yet BOTH getting out-bodied by the much younger player proved just how good he is getting both physically and as a player.

There will be doubts about whether he can keep this form up, but from watching him he is certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. He is clearly loving his football at the moment and his current form is indicative of this. There is, however, no better example of how well he is playing then the 10 goals he kicked against West Coast this weekend - the first time a player has hit the ten-goal mark in nearly three years - the last player being Jono Brown (not bad company to be in!). This is no mean feat, especially when you are playing for the team sitting clear on the bottom of the ladder, in a position that would generally be considered one of the hardest in football. Yet in the past five weeks, he has kicked 32 goals - more than any other player in the competition, and a tally that now has him sitting two goals clear on top of the Coleman medal list.

What makes Riewoldt’s game more interesting is the way he plays his role - to put things in comparison, he is 193cm, the same size as his cousin, St.Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt - unlike many other players of his size, his ability at ground level is almost the equal of any small forward. Where most tall forwards would palm the ball down to their crumbers when unable to take a mark, Riewoldt instead palms the ball to space where he himself can run onto it to kick a goal, ala Stephen Milne. It is a freakish ability, and one that shouldn’t be taken lightly from a player of his stature.

Goals are not his only way of troubling the stats sheet, as he has also worked on many other areas of his game too this year, such as his tackling - he averages just over four tackles, nearly double his average from 2009. His disposals average has remained the same from last year, but what has improved is his kick to handball ratio - in 2009, he was running at a very good 2.5 kicks for every handball, but this year his 5.6 kicks to every handball is simply ridiculous!

It could possibly still be argued that Riewoldt is not worth choosing due to the team he plays in, but I believe that this is not an issue - whilst it would be much better for him to be playing at Geelong or St.Kilda, the players delivering the ball to him are all great users of the ball (Cotchin, Martin, Cousins), meaning it is typically placed very well for him. Also, being such a key target, they go to him much more than any other player - think of Fevola at Carlton over the past few years. He is a brilliant player, despite only being 21 years old. He will only continue to get better and is even a chance to make it to the lofty heights of his great cousin if he works hard enough. He is not as left-field a pick as many may make themselves believe, plus with forward lines being the bane of all evil in 2010, it is worth being creative - it just may pay off!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio - 5.6 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.75

Average Tackles per game: 4.1

Average Disposals per game: 12.75

Average Goals per game: 3.75

Breakeven: 23

Average Dream Team Points: 92.58

Price: $395,300(+$67,900)