Footy Tragic
Setting Realistic Expectations
Dear Footy Tragics,
With four weeks of exposed form behind us, dreamteam coaches around the country now have a clear picture of which players have been quality selections and which players have been dud selections. Everyone is now talking about which players they are going to trade in or out of their squad, which is why I’m going to take a closer look at trading this week.
Ideally, prior to Round 1, you should have placed each of your 30 players into one of the following three categories:
Premiums - Price range $350,000 plus;
Mid Priced Value Picks - Price range $180,000 - $350,000;
Cash Cows - Price range under $180,000.
The reason why we need to categorise our players into one of the above sections, is so we can set our expectations accordingly. When we set our expectations too high, it will inevitably lead to disappointment. A disappointed dreamteam coach is usually very quick to wield the axe on an underperforming player, simply because: “player X is killing me, he has to go”. These rash decisions are usually based on emotion rather than logic and many trades are wasted as a result.
We should expect our premiums (or keepers) to average at least 85 points per game. This figure is on the conservative side and more suitable when talking premium forwards or premium defenders. If you have loaded up in your midfield with elite premium midfielders such as Dane Swan or Gary Ablett, an average of 110 points per game should be expected.
If you forked out $470,000 on Bryce Gibbs or $453,400 on Joel Selwood, you have every right to be feeling slightly bemused by their relatively slow starts to the season. However, any thought of trading them out now would be madness. Gibbs and Selwood are both high quality midfielders in their fourth season of AFL footy. I expect both of them to fire up sooner rather than later. As the old saying goes “form is temporary, class is permanent”.
We should expect our mid priced value picks to average between 70 - 80 points per game, with anything more considered a bonus. Players such as Nick Malceski and Hayden Ballantyne have been excellent selections in 2010. However, after just 38 points and 29 points respectively in Round 4, many dreamteam coaches are preparing to wield the axe. I’m sure most coaches would have taken an average of 85 points per game from Malceski and 68 points per game from Ballantyne pre season.
When analysing mid priced value picks, we must take the good with the bad. I don’t believe any coach has the right to praise Malceski one week after scoring 119 points in Round 3 and then crucify him for scoring 38 points the next week. Overall, Malceski and Ballantyne have been great thus far, so put that axe away and show some faith.
Last, but certainly not least are our all important cash cows. Our cash cows are every bit as important as our premiums such as Jonathan Brown and Matthew Pavlich and they are often where the game (or car) is won or lost. First year AFL players such as Alex Silvagni, Ben Nason, Tom Scully, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Ryan Bastinac, Mitch Duncan, Cameron Hitchcock and Carl Peterson have gone from being unknown 18 - 22 year old kids to core components of nearly 100,000 dreamteams in the space of just six months!
As expected, these first year players have some very good weeks, along with some average weeks. This should come as no surprise as the only thing consistent with first year players is their inconsistency. Unfortunately many dreamteam coaches act more like slayers than coaches as they wield that mighty axe after just one average game.
We should expect our cash cows to average between 55 - 65 points per game, with anything more considered a very nice bonus.
The worst thing a dreamteam coach can do is fritter away those all important trades due to a lack of patience. Before clicking that button to confirm one of your golden trades, ask yourself this all important question: “Am I making the right decision, or can I give my player one more week to redeem himself?”
Good luck!

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9 Comments on Setting Realistic Expectations
Good article, some great advice there.
Yeah i find it amazing how reactive some coaches can be - if you look at the 20 most traded in players this week you see names like, Matt Maguire (after his 111 points but at $162k), Michael Barlow (I can’t believe people were still trading him in at $186k…), Sam Gilbert (after his 152) and Brent Harvey (after his 163)…
Whilst these are all good players (but you wouldnt really want to be trading in two cash cows after already having two price rises!), it shows the reactive nature of so many coaches, ready to burn their trades. This is why so many teams end up with dud selections, due to the fact they base a player’s worth on one game along! Hence Leigh Harding in 2009! And Jared Brennan in 2008 (ahem…).
So the moral of the story is, be aware of your trade target’s history - not just their most recent score (which won’t count to your weekly tally anyway!). Be sure that these scores weren’t just one out of the box before you hit trade!
This is why i set myself goals - use your Dreamteam watchlist appropriately - tag all the players whom you see yourself wanting and monitor their progress through the season. I have tagged all the premiums who started the season slow, as i expect these will be the first i trade in - the likes of Selwood, Hayes, Cassissi, Hargrave, Cox, Didak, etc. We know the history of all these blokes, and for most of them a reason can be found for the wane.
And as Ben said above, make sure you know who you want out of your team - there is no point trading out a Gibbs or Selwood when by the same theory you are wanting to trade back in a falling premium (sounds pointless in hindsight doesn’t it?). So you must know (preferably before round one) which players are only in your team to make money and be traded - i know that all of Hall, McVeigh (already gone), Waters, Hunt, Maguire, Hille are all simply trade-bait in my team - these are the players i will upgrade to a premium or downgrade for cash. I don’t plan on trading any of my premiums unless i have to, as i know that by the end of the season their averages will tell the story - i.e. One bad game does not mean they deserve the chop - sometimes you need to step back and look at the bigger picture!
By the way, Great article mate!
Really like the changes to the website this year guys. You’re doing a great job.
Have a few queries. I dont spend as much time as you guys would on DT, but it would be good if the website had an explanation of how price increases occur or how they decrease, and what sort of scores players need to breakeven
EG barry hall was only ever in my team as a trade up option so is the right time to get rid of him now or will he go up more. Thats the stuff I dont really understand.
Sorry if thats a dumb question but I really dont know how they work out the price changes
Thanks and again keep up the good work
robocop: my suggestion would be to download ffgenie (Google it) - it is a sensational program that contains all you have asked for and more.
Yeah ffgenie will help. On a side note, Barry is playing Adelaide this week and i am hoping he can have a big game this week to bolster his price before i trade him next week!
Also, rumors are already circulating as to some big ins and outs this week:
Dogs will lose Minson and Boyd (and probably Moles). Roughhead should get his first game and Aker and Johnno will be back
Hawks should regain Sewell
Brisbane may be without Jono Brown as he is rumored to have some stomach issues - he WILL be named, but the question remains as to whether they will risk him against the Dees
Adelaide will drop Taylor Walker and Give Ricky Henderson his debut. VanBerlo should also return…
Ben and toby what are your thoughts of trading walker and dangerfield for rockliff and pods? This means i will have them and gumby and duncan. Too many rookies? With the hope of gumby to didak soon. Also how long do you think boyd will be out for?
You would be at least trading for two worthwhile rookies - it’s not like this trade is there for the sake of it to get cash! Personally, i would probably recommend downgrading to one of these two (i.e. Dangerfield to Rockliff - i believe he has better job security as Pods is on the rookie list/ stronger competition etc) and then upgrading the other now to Didak or Sylvia etc…
By doing this is saves one of those trades later on - if you work it out, there are two options:
A) Danger –> Rockliff
Walker –> Sylvia/Didak
This leaves you with no money in the bank, but you have Duncan, Rockliff and Gumbleton as three strong rookies (and you only need to play one!)
B) Danger –> Rockliff
Walker –> Pods
Approx $300k in bank = enough to upgrade Gumby to a premium (with a bit of change)
Therefore, in option A, you use two trades and have an immediate result, option B, you use 3 trades, have a slightly better bench and a little more cash, plus u will need to wait another week to bring in the premium.
Personally, i much prefer option A.
Hope this helps!
Boyd supposedly only out for 1 week while the swelling from the burst blood vessell in his hand goes down (AFL website); Am hoping Stants is back for my mob - the noises out of EFC have been positive and lastly, Cunnington also a strong possibility to debut - I hope he does as it would be perfect timing for a Round 7/8 downgrade/upgrade scenario :-) Do you think Sam Wright is good cover for Jono Brown? lol My forward line this year is creating the same levels of stress and concern as my Defence did last year and the year before… Is it just me, or are others noticing the same?
Forward line has been pretty solid this year I’ve found. Obviously the unexpected - Roo injury, Buddy’s amazing ability to get rubbed out and Grey seemingly taking an age to get back has been irritating but I think most people have a had a strong enough bench to cover one or two down in the early weeks.
Wish Rockliff had have been in the team since round 1 though. Had to eat a doughnut for that kid. Although his average over the last two weeks has probably made up for any points I would have got from another rookie in week 1.
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