Footy Tragic
Finding a Needle in a Haystack
Dear Footy Tragics,
One of the most important aspects of dreamteam research is sorting through the latest batch of draftees, to determine which ones are worthy of a place in our squad of 30 players. The top three draft picks from the 2009 national draft: Tom Scully, Jack Trengove and Dustin Martin are already household names, despite a combined total of 0 AFL games. As you scroll down the list, names such as Gary Rohan, Brad Sheppard and Ryan Bastinac are already locked into many dreamteams. The first year players are a key element to any successful dreamteam and this is widely known.
Another aspect of dreamteam we are all very familiar with is choosing our “premiums”. The premiums are the big point scorers who you can’t live without. Names such as Dane Swan, Gary Ablett, Paul Chapman and Nick Riewoldt fit this category. Once again, this part of dreamteam is obvious to all of us, so there is no point in me talking further about this.
The real challenge in dreamteam is finding those under priced gems who are priced in that awkward price point of between $160,000 – $250,000. Any player priced in this range is high risk because if you are spending this much money on a player, he’s going to be in your starting 22. The risk is if the player does not perform, not only will you have a passenger in your team, you will need to use up a valuable trade to dump your unwanted passenger.
Finding quality players in this price bracket is like trying to find a needle in a hay stack. This may come as a surprise, but five of the best selections in this price bracket last year were: Andrew Swallow ($227,800 midfielder), Sam Gilbert ($221,900 defender), Mitch Clark ($217,800 forward / ruck), Patrick Ryder ($214,000 defender) and Jarryn Geary ($192,100 defender). Of these five players, four would have been valuable keepers all the way until Round 22 (Geary being the odd one out). If you had all five of these players in your starting squad prior to Round 1 in 2009, please send your details into Footy Tragic and I’ll get you to choose my Tattslotto numbers for this Saturday night!
The key to becoming an elite dreamteam performer is finding these mid priced gems. While sometimes these gems stand out for all to see (e.g. Shaun Higgins last year as a $211,900 forward / midfielder), the majority are very hard to find.
Nailing your first year player and premium selections is extremely important, but it’s your mid priced gems that will take your team from good to elite.
Good luck!
18 Comments on Finding a Needle in a Haystack
I would have liked to see your top 5 160K-250K players.
I’m going with the following: Kenelly, Martin, Dangerfield, Ballantyne & Mayne.
I could have easily reeled off names such as Patrick Dangerfield, Tadhg Kennelly, Josh Hunt etc. but that would be like me telling you 12 months ago to get onboard Shaun Higgins.
My point is, not many teams had Andrew Swallow or Patrick Ryder last year prior to Round 1, yet they were golden choices in 2009.
We’ve all heard the obvious names thrown around, our challenge is to find the not so obvious ones.
It’s the unique selections you need to be successful, because the majority of teams will have Dangerfield, Kennelly etc.
I think one big common factor behind last years top 5 is their age- there was no players returning from injury etc, meaning that if we go by last years example, we should b looking at players about to start their second or third years, and not so much Kennelly or waters. So players like danger, Jesse white, Campbell, Warren, swift, Jack steven, myers, Henderson, etc are the players to concentrate on…
Sorry, and balla, mayne, leuenberger, wright, gray, etc
I’ll give you three players I was very impressed with last Friday afternoon who are mid priced and unique: Chris Yarran, Myke Cook and Rory Sloane.
Anyone else out there prepared to stick their neck out and nominate some mid priced players about to step up in 2010???
To have started with Ryder or Clark last year (and to a lesser extent Swallow) would’ve been nothing but luck. There was nothing to suggest Ryder was going to play ruck and even so, that he would score well there. Clark was nothing more than an injury prone, inconsistent tall forward pocket before Charman and Leuy’s injuries thrust him into the ruck all year – where once again there was no real guarantee he would score well there.
Those two were not informed decisions last year and if you started them, you were nothing more than lucky because there was nothing to indicate they would score well.
My random five for this year would be C.Dempsey, D.Connors, K.Jack, T.Walker, S.Wright. Maybe a year early with Wright, he could be 2011. FWIW, I’ve only got the stones to pick one of these guys.
The rucks are doing my head in though, because I look at Seaby, Hille, Ottens, NicNat, McEvoy and Jamar capable of lifting big time…but at best I reckon only one, maybe two of them actually will.
You are only looking at the negatives attached to Ryder and Clark. The positives are both players were first round draft picks (Ryder # 7, Clark # 9) and both had showed huge potential without being brilliant in their first three seasons of AFL footy.
If people want to play safe and finish 3,000th overall, good luck to you. Personally, anything outside the top 100 after Round 22 is a fail in my book. I’m after glory and I’d prefer to take risks and finish 10,000 overall, than play it safe and finish 3,000 overall.
Those who have the courage to take risks and back their own judgement will be rewarded, possibly with a new car???
A fool is a person who makes the same decision twice and expects a different result the second time.
Definitely agree with your sentiments RE: Sloane. Looks ready. However with the crows players still to come back in it is difficult seeing him being anything other than a fringe player.
Another unique: Mitch Robinson. While a touch over the 250k level, i believe he will explode this year. Improved on the poor elements on his game(going to ground too much, disposal) and has kept his beautiful aggression and loves the goals. He has averaged 70-80 in the preseason and would be a unique pick…but again, it is hard to pass up Armitage/Masten.
Yarran is one people say will breakout this year. He will certainly get close to 22 games if he doesn’t play them all. Queries as to whether he can stay in games or if he will fade in and out of them remain unanswered. Maybe a 2011 player for mine
Ryder and Clark were only allowed to score the way they did because of unforseeable long term injuries to pretty much the whole ruck division at their clubs.
All things equal, going into 2009 Hille and Laycock were the #1 and #2 ruckmen on the list at Essendon. Laycock was ruled out for the season in the pre-season IIRC, so at best you could’ve seen Ryder as a pinch hitting ruckman while Hille was having a rest. It was when Hille went down that Ryder went bang and if you picked Ryder from Round 1 that is pure luck, because there was nothing to suggest he would end up being Essendon’s #1 ruck and he had always been a terrible DT’er as a back. He was a 51 and 48 avg in his previous two years and in the first four games of 2009 before his move to ruck he averaged 56, indicating that he was not improving greatly enough to the 82 he ended up averaging. Pure luck that Hille got injured for anyone who owned Ryder.
Same deal with Mitch Clark, except neither ruck had fallen by the time Round 1 hit. Charman and Leuey played Rounds 1 and 2 and Clark scored 75 and 24. Charman missed Round 3 and Clark was made back-up ruck for a 67 against Sydney. Charman was back for Round 4, but Leuey was ruled out for the season after Round 3. I think Charman went down during the game so Clark got to be #1 ruck for a lot of the night and scored a 95. It wasn’t until two injuries hit that allowed him to be #1 ruck. Before last year Clark was an injury prone (4 games and 11 games in the two years prior when he was considered best 22) forward pocket with a career high score of 80 in a game. There’s no way anyone could’ve anticipated a guy with a high score of 80 in three years would go on to AVERAGE 94. Once again, pure luck, not an informed pick.
Based on the above logic/debate, a unique pick at slightly higher price than the range you mentioned ($283K) is Justin Westhoff. If Brogan goes down with or an injury (or more than likely, cops a suspension) and Chocco doesn’t think Lobbe is ready and Cloke walks under a ladder and Venus lines up with Mars and Michael Clark gets back with Lara Bingle and…….and……..so on and so forth, Westy could be your man. No really, he could. He could be a Ryderesque ruckman or a Richo-like wingman. Imagine bragging to your mates about picking the Hoff at the beginning of the season.
Walker could definately be the smokey this year, is fit and bulked up heaps.
Looking for a third mid. Got Lewis in atm but only averaging 74 in NAB. Have you guys been watching him closely? is he going to fire?
Well Clark and Ryder aside, the other three names mentioned by ben were Gilbert, Geary and swallow. These boys are probably more representative of the players to be looking at. Swallow had a massive preseason after a ultra disappointing 2008- disappointing due to the fact he finished off 2007 so well! Gilbert was the same- those who did their research would have known 2008 was a learning year for him after spending 2007 showing he was a great rebounder. Lyon used 2008 to teach Gilbert the art of taking a man and accountability. He then let gilbo off the leash in 2009, allowing him to combine his attacking and defending skills. Research had to b done to have known this, but the signs were there. Geary was very promising in his debut year and at under $200k was worth the punt when he was named in round one- a fate that looks like it could be mirrored by the likes of wright this year. I think wat this article is trying to prove is that the money is not always going to in the rookie priced picks, but also in those around $200k- a price point likely to score much larger than those players in their first year in the system. Often it takes knowing some more intimate knowledge about a club- like as a saints supporter, I expected Gilbert to take that step, just as I expect Jack steven to take it up a notch this year… So essentially, as we have been stating on Footy tragic- sharing is caring!!
Well.. more big news just released:
WAYDE SKIPPER INJURED!!! He will be out for an expected 6 – 8 weeks with a hamstring injury!! Does this mean Grimley is now our man!? Poor Hawthorn… this is getting ridiculous!
KB, that’s a very fair comparison, although I don’t think Westhoff is any good as a ruckman. Westhoff shows good mobility for the position and scored pretty well from there, but purely from a footy perspective he’s not very good there – as a DT’er he could work out well though.
It would require a Ryder/Clark like aligning of the planets, but if Brogan goes down I think Port are stuffed because even though I don’t like the hindsight call of Ryder and Clark, they showed a lot more ability as actual ruckmen in their first few years than Westhoff has. If he’s leading their ruck, Port will be roving to the opposition tap nearly every time IMO.
I actually wasn’t meaning to rubbish Tuney’s article. It just really grinds me to think that Ryder and Clark could’ve been considered educated picks. As Toby pointed out, there were signs there with Swallow, Geary and Gilbert, but it’s just the examples of Ryder and Clark that I protest in an otherwise excellent article!
Seriously, without Skipper I have no idea who my fourth ruck will be. What it does do is hopefully bring Jordan Lisle back into the frame as a $94,500 back option. At 196cm he was tried in the ruck at stages this pre-season. Otherwise Roughead might be backing up Renouf. Grimley is so far from ready it’s not funny! The kid played like 3 TAC Cup games!
In light of the above discussion, you could do a lot worse than inserting Brent Renouf as your 2nd ruck. Let’s face it, he’s going to be in the thick of the action and playing a lot of minutes on the ground. While Renouf is hardly a smooth mover, he does work hard around the ground, contest well, provide good 2nd efforts and take a nice grab.
Jordan Lisle will be Hawthorn’s back up ruckman. Lisle played some very solid footy for Box Hill last year and he deserves a chance to prove himself at AFL level. Lowden and Grimley are both very raw and will be left to develop their games in the VFL.
As for Jordan Lewis, he’s been solid during the practice matches. He has proven his scoring ability in previous seasons, so I wouldn’t be concerned that he is not averaging 90 points per game in the practice matches.
Worth noting too is that Renouf did have a very strong game on the weekend, beating the Brisbane rucks. It will be interesting to learn tomorrow what his score was from that match… Another to keep an eye on i guess!
Freako is already out. He only got 45. When I heard Skipper was injured Renouf jumped into my head, but quickly out again.
I like the thinking behind both Justin Westhoff and Taylor Walker. Both have showed enormous potential over their short AFL careers, with a lack of consistency holding them back from being high quality AFL players. They have also been very impressive over the pre season, Westhoff with a role change and Walker setting personal best running times.
Sure they would be considered “risky selections”, but the greatest risk of all is to take no risk!
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