Footy Tragic
Article #5 – Decisions, Decisions…
Dear Footy Tragics,
As regular readers of my column may have noted, one of my objectives with my weekly article is to draw attention to certain areas you may have overlooked. As my fellow Footy Tragic writers Toby and Dan often say, I do look at dreamteam and the underlying strategies used very differently to most.
I make no secret of the fact that my goal in 2010 is to win something more tangible than my private league (a new car would be nice)! While the joy obtained from gaining bragging rights over mates cannot be underestimated, I’m searching for more. If you are reading this article now, there’s a fair chance you are serious about your dreamteam. If so, you probably find it easy to beat 15 of your mates, year after year. What is not so easy is beating 250,000 people!
At times it feels like the impossible dream, to win the ultimate prize against so many competitors. The reality is, the difference between finishing 19th overall (as I did in 2008) and winning the competition is 2 – 3 incorrect decisions over the course of the season. If you finish 431st overall (as Toby did last year), the difference might be 7 – 8 incorrect decisions over the course of the season. It’s important to realise that we don’t make 50 decisions over the course of the season (30 players now, plus 20 trades), we make closer to 1,000. The more decisions we get right, the higher up the rankings we move. The question is, “How do I make the right decisions?”
Do I pick Brent Harvey or Shaun Higgins as my 3rd forward? Both players averaged approximately 89 points per game last year and are priced around the $390,000 mark. Harvey and Higgins are both quality players with one major point of difference, their age. Harvey is 31, whereas Higgins is 22 (on 4 March). This decision for me is obvious; I’ll take Higgins because he is younger and therefore less likely to be troubled by soft tissue injuries. Some dreamteams will choose Harvey (incorrect decision number 1) and then start bleating when he tears a calf muscle in Round 7. Or the dreamteam coach who picks up Paul Chapman at a price of $494,500 (incorrect decision number 2), the man with an average of 113 points per game in 2009. The problem is, Chapman has hamstrings made of crepe paper and will miss games at some point in 2010.
I can hear the excuses already, excuses such as “injuries have killed me”, “bloody injuries”, or my favorite “I’ve just been unlucky this year”. Injuries happen so prepare your team for them and don’t complain when they happen. Good coaches see injuries as an opportunity to improve their team, rather than an excuse for failure. Even better coaches choose durable players likely to play 22 games, thus saving valuable trades!
Another very important consideration is what to do with your midfield structure. Do I choose, four premiums and four cash cows, or do I choose two premiums, three mid tier players and three cash cows? Or maybe I should choose two premiums and six cash cows because all the cash cows are in the midfield this year? Do I choose Dane Swan or Gary Ablett? Do I choose Leigh Montagna or Bryce Gibbs? Do I choose Tom Scully or Jack Trengove? Do I choose Michael Barlow or Mitch Banner? When making these decisions, keep in mind the fact that every decision you make will impact on your final ranking at seasons end.
The end result is that for every decision you get wrong, it will cost you points. Not only will poor decisions cost you valuable points, they will also cost you trades. We only get 20 trades for the season, so don’t waste them by making poor decisions with your initial squad of 30 players.
Getting back to my original question, “How do I make the right decisions?” My advice to you is to make your decisions based on facts rather than innuendo and to back your own judgment over your mate’s advice. You need to consider all factors such as a player’s: age, height, weight, draft history, injury history, form, fitness, previous club, role change, job security, opportunities available due to injuries to teammates, capacity for improvement etc.
Don’t be afraid to stick your neck on the chopping block and pick that unique player you want, even though it seems you are the only coach interested in that player. Personally, I always favour a unique selection over a player who is in over 100,000 teams (I’m trying to beat those teams, not follow them to the finish line)! I see so many dreamteamers make poor decisions because they can’t make a decision for themselves, so they copy what their mate is doing. I’m reminded here of a famous saying “the ditch is fairly obvious into which the blind led by the blind must fall”.
With so many decisions to make over the course of the season, it can all seem so complicated. Let me make it simple and easy for you, make more good decisions and less bad decisions and you’ll climb up the rankings. To take it a step further, if you make more good decisions and less bad decisions compared to the other 250,000 competitors, you may end up with a new car by September!
Good luck!

6 Comments on Article #5 – Decisions, Decisions…
First good decision: Reading Footy Tragic! Haha… Good work Ben!
I’m trying my hardest to avoid these ‘bad decision’ players at the moment:
Jarrad Waite, Ottens, Hille… Even McVeigh is one if you look at his history!
By my belief, this biggest trap this year is Barry Hall! I had him in my team THREE TIMES in one year once… my worst DT memory!
Higgins vs. Harvey is an interesting one though given Higgins’ own injury history!
I’m not gonna lie, Hille, McVeigh and Hall are both in my team at the moment because they present value. They are not intended to be keepers for me, I just need to get the first half of a season out of them.
As mid priced players I see them making enough money to be easily upgraded. Ultimately all three have the scoring potential to be keepers, but I am planning to trade all three out, so having the luxury to keep one of them would be a bonus if they are going well enough.
Initially i ignored Higgins, and a week or two ago i put him in my team, now i can see nobody as an equal or better replacement given my other selections.
I became serious about DT last year, causing my meteoric rise (If I don’t mind saying so myself) from a 20-40k ranker to 531st. Missed out on a weekly prize by the wrong captaincy choice. Burn.
Setting myself pretty high goals this season and have been spending almost an hour a day at this stage going through articles and statistics.
I’ve steered away from injury prone players except for Ladson ( at this stage..).
Question – Who are you guys playing as your 7th defender? I can’t see any first year player that has a locked spot yet (that scores well enough for a spot on my field).
You raise a great point Murphinator about your rapid rise up the rankings last year as a result of taking DT more seriously. The more research and time you spend on your DT, the more good decisions you will make.
One of the challenges we found prior to commencing this site was finding quality dreamteam content. I refuse to look at any other DT sites, because I don’t trust the information provided. Much of the information is based on rumour and innuendo. A large part of the content is also aimed at what can only be described as “beginners content”, or to put it bluntly “useless garbage”.
You can rest assured that the team here at Footy Tragic conduct thorough research from reliable sources prior to writing these articles. This is one of the reasons why our site is fast becoming the number 1 site for quality and accurate DT content!
I’ll be discussing this in much greater detail in my article next week.
In answer to your question, I currently have Rick Ladson as my 7th back.
Higgins vs Harvey
This is the problem I’m facing with my team this year. I’m worried about Higgins injury history the fact that he might be another Chapman with hamstring tightness a real worrie. Harvey on the other hand has a very good injury history only missing last year due to a broken arm i think and not soft tissue or a knee like other players.
I would be backing Harvey to play more games than Higgins.
Got both of these guys in my side at the moment and thinking of trading out Higgins for Okeefe or Brown who both have better injury histories but on the other hand may not have the upside of higgins.
What are your thoughts of Ballantyne? Don’t get any footy overseas so haven’t been able to see any NAB cup action but his numbers look impressive. Also Rockcliff do you think this guy can crack it into Brisbane’s best 22. Still deciding if he will be my 8th or 9th forward. Pods is in the mix if Rockcliff is in the best 22, will have to see when the teams are announced.
Dlow, ive really enjoyed Ballantyne’s pre-season – he is working much higher up the ground this year with a promised rotation through the midfield. He has really set the tone for his teammates, often tackling hard and setting up plenty of inside 50s. Personally, im trying to find a spot for him in my team at the moment!
As for Rockliff, he has also looked great through the midfield – he racked up plenty of disposals against the Dogs and was near to BOG. However, with Black, Power and Adcock still to return, his spot in the side is far from guaranteed! He does play like a Vossy clone (like Redden did last year), so is sure to draw favoritism from the coach!
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