Footy Tragic
Green At The Top End
First of all, I would like to salute Michael Barlow for his stellar 2010 season that ended abruptly in most unfortunate circumstances. There wouldn’t be many footy fans out there that haven’t fallen in love with his sudden rise from gun VFL on baller to one of the top midfielders in the AFL in only 14 matches. I wish him the best in his recovery and as a sign of a true DT star he reached his break even score before getting injured.
I won’t go too far into my personal philosophy, but one thing I will say is that uniqueness is a very, very minor part of the equation when you’re talking about bringing in the big boys. I’d rather back my own judgment on who is going to score the most points – total points is the key. Basically I think it’s pointless to worry too much about unique when it could work against you. Montagna is great, but the least popular of these five players…if you choose Montagna over Ablett because of uniqueness, it won’t have done you any good if Ablett outscores him (that’s just an example, I’m certainly not saying that Montagna can’t/won’t outscore Ablett).
Here is a look at the premium options to bring in for this rookie listed sensation.
Dane “The Champ” Swan – $512,100 MID, Avg: 121.64 (hasn’t missed)
I think Swan can now officially claim the title of the best DT’er in the game. Ablett has him pipped for average this year, but Swan’s durability is a huge plus in his favour. The thing I love about Swan is that he has no trouble really smashing a ton. Eight times this year he has scored 120+, in three games he has scored 100-119 and in another three games he didn’t crack a ton.
When he tons up, he is probably the best at going on with the job. He’s DT’s version of Ricky Ponting. There’s a reason why he’s the most expensive player in the game – his consistently high output this season sees him continue to go up and up in price. He’s actually below his starting price at the moment and is likely to go up this week with a break even of 117. Swan is one of those rare players where you can expect a 117 from, not just hope for.
Main DT asset: He’s hard to tag, loves the cheap stuff and in some cases opposition don’t consider his disposal damaging enough to warrant a tag.
Brendan “Everywhere” Goddard – $478,900 BAC/MID, Avg: 113.21 (hasn’t missed)
Followers of this site will know that I’m a fan of the DP system. The flexibility it allows you is fantastic, especially if you happen to receive an injury to a DP player. If you haven’t got Goddard in your backline already, don’t turn your nose at the prospect of getting him into your midfield.
He’s scored the third most amount of points this season (behind Swan and Montagna) and if you’re desperate to squeeze him into your backs, it’ll cost you a hell of a lot more money than the $24K it costs to upgrade Barlow to Goddard.
Goddard is the only player to have scored six straight 120+ games this season (not counting Ablett’s streak because he missed a game in the middle of that run) and quite possibly ever – maybe a someone with nerdier stats than I have can confirm. This is a streak he is currently enjoying. He’s had three sub 100′s this year, but all were in the first five weeks. He’s scored tons in nine straight games and St.Kilda have an incredibly soft draw in the run home (only two Top 8 teams to come).
Main DT asset: Fantastic versatility allows him to move to any part of the ground to find the ball.
Paul “Hamstring” Chapman – $459,600, FWD/MID, Avg: 118.6 (missed one game)
I’ll write a bit more on Chappy, because he’s the most intriguing case. He has been amazing for those that took the risk on him this year. His hamstring issues from past years are well documented and it’s always been enough to put me off (I have never owned Chappy). This year it’s been more painful than usual. Normally I’ve been able to sit there, watch him rack up points and smugly say “he’ll miss games.” His last full season was in 2006 and since then he has missed 6, 5 and 5 games each year.
This year he has been so dominant that even if he were to end up missing four more games (having already missed one) you could argue that you’re well up anyway, due to how badly the rest of the forwards are underperforming and how ridiculous his scoring has been (lowest score of 99).
The big call for those of us without the bald one is whether or not we’ve missed out on the best of Chappy and will simply trade him in only for him to miss his obligatory few games in the run home. One thing that does work in his favour, is that even if he gets injured you have his DP link.
Not that this should sway you, but I just want to put my scenario out there as it’s probably a common one – Rockliff is currently my 8th forward. If I got Chappy and, heaven forbid, nothing has changed, then I can sub Chappy to my forward bench, play a capable DP forward (I have ROK, Pav, Higgo, Goodes) and then put Rocky’s inevitable ton in as my 7th forward.
Best case scenario, Chappy averages more than these other four guys in the run home and you’re a massive winner. Worst case scenario (if you’re DP equipped with good forward coverage) is that Chappy spends a couple of weeks on your forward bench. I wouldn’t have the stones to take him if I didn’t have Rocky as my 8th…but now I’m seriously considering it. It would be an unfortunate estimated 20-30 point loss for each game he misses, but if any one of these other premiums misses a game you’re probably losing 50+ points with whoever you’re covering – the Catch 22 is Chappy’s higher likelihood of missing games.
Main DT asset: DP capabilities allows you to take on his injury risk.
Leigh “The Unique” Montagna – $459,900, MID, Avg: 114.57 (hasn’t missed)
Of these five, Montagna has the least love in Dream Team, in roughly 43K teams. For the most part I’d say this is because he’s simply not as big a name. For a bloke that averages 114 he does kind of fly under the radar, at least of mainstream thought. Any keen DT’er knows that Montagna is an absolute stud of the game.
Some people say he doesn’t get tagged, but I’ve watched St.Kilda live a few times and his work rate to break a tag is fantastic. A lot of sides will attack St.Kilda by stopping their outside run and Montagna is their best man for that. It’s important to stop Dal Santo’s kicking, so he attracts the most attention, but there is this belief in the wider footy community that I don’t quite subscribe to, and that is that Hayes is the second mid to stop for the Saints. He’s a gun, no doubt, but it’s harder to put a tight tag on such an inside player – that’s why I reckon more teams look to get the ball to the man he’s feeding: Montagna.
That sounds like I’m talking Monty down a bit, but remember it’s his ability to break a tag that impresses me so much. He works so hard, so when it looks like he’s picking up cheapies on the TV, he’s probably just busted his balls to get into that position. The Saints have a delicious (thanks Bruce) draw, as mentioned above with Goddard and Montagna is every shake to score the most in the run home.
Main DT asset: Easy run home and ability to break tags.
Gary “I Traded Him In Last Week WTF?!” Ablett – $456,900, MID, Avg: 121.85 (missed one game)
I feel a bit dirty turning my back on the great man after anointing Dane Swan as the new champ. Given that I traded him in last week, I’m hoping my words motivate him to push to new heights he’s never reached before. I know that he’s a regular reader of Footy Tragic.*
It’s hard to argue with form though and Ablett has been a little down by his very lofty standards. Now, don’t get me wrong, down by his lofty standards has still resulted in six straight tons and only one score below 100 this year (a 96). You’re also not likely to get him much cheaper than this either.
The risk with Ablett, like Chapman, is that he has a bit of a habit of missing games here and there to freshen up for finals. It’s not as strong a trend as Chappy, but it’s still gotta be in the back of your head.
Finally, who would’ve thought that you’d be able to SIDEWAYS trade Barlow for Ablett by Round 15 – it’s an absolutely absurd notion, but once again, thank you very much for your contribution this year, Michael Barlow.
* Blatant lie.
Main DT asset: Commands the ball. Begs for it! PLEADS FOR IT! The master of the ol’ 1-2.
Wash up: At the end of the day, I just can’t bag any of these guys and it really comes down to personal preference and who you already have anyway (you’d have to have AT LEAST two of these guys already). Everyone will have their own reasons for going to whichever way they end up going. Good luck with your choice.
And not to forget…bargain basement:
Andrew Strijk – West Coast ($77,800, BAC, Break even: -65)
I know it’s all about Barlow and the midfield this week, but it is worth noting that there is a good downgrade target in the back line this week. Strijk looks a likely type and a few weeks ago I pumped him up as someone on the horizon and sure enough he debuted that week. He’s likely to provide good depth on your bench for the rest of the season for those nervously holding the likes of Hams, Webberley or even Maguire.
13 Comments on Green At The Top End
really enjoyed reading that. thanks Dan
i have 6 trades do you think its worth getting goddard and montagna with 3 trades
Don’t ask me why as I couldn’t give a direct response, but I just don’t like Ablett….might be different if at least one of the “1-2″ possessions were a kick. So I won’t be trading in Ablett. I already have Swan and Goddard.
I was planning on Barlow->Montagna but your comments on Chapman’s DP status has me reconsidering. I have ROK, Pav and Didak in my forwards and Rockliff as my 8th. My mid bench is Shuey/Gysberts so I’m rather nervous about not having any cover in my mids. As you mentioned, trading in Chapman would provide good cover through the DP system (provided Brown comes back and doesn’t leave me short in the forwards).
I’m very nervous about Chapman being rested again and/or getting injured. I have 7 trades left, so it might be time to bite the bullet and just trade out Shuey for better cover (seems like a wasted trade though) and just get Montagna as planned.
Plenty to think about before Friday lockout.
doubt shuey will be back this year, so get rid of him. id go montagna over chapman. i have all the guys in this article bar chapman, so i think i’ll pick him up
aideye there are other options LIKE boyd and other people that I’m sure Dan will talk about tomorrow
Just a note on Chapman, I had him all last year and all the year before. Last year he pretty much single handedly cost me the finals. The only reason I traded him in this year was because of an article I read a few weeks ago on AFL.com.au about a new fitness regime he was trying which was solving his hamstring issues. Doesn’t explain why he was out a couple of weeks ago, but for the most part this seems to be correct. Especially if you’re using with DP a very good idea.
I know what you mean about Rockliff Dan, I’m gonna have some issues when Brown comes back!
Starting to really rue my decision to not start any of these blokes in my team this year. Instead, i opted for a different tactic to start the likes of Pendlebury, Murphy, Gibbs etc. in the hope that they’d lift their average by 10 points or so and become the Montagna-type improver’s from last year, but that has backfired slightly. Pendles has been about the only one that has delivered relatively consistent 110+ scores, but even he’s been up and down…
I am able to nab one of these guys with the Barlow-trade this week however. But i would really like to own 2 or 3 before the end of the year.
Would it be silly to think about going Barlow to Ablett/Chappy and Murphy to Montagna/Goddard perhaps??
I know it’s the ultimate sideways trade in off-loading Murphy, but in light of this article and seeing many peoples teams, it’s becoming more and more obvious to me that you really need to have AT LEAST 2 or 3 of these guys (as Dan mentioned) to give your team any sort of potency, especially come finals time…. hmmm
Seems i ponder a different trade/strategy each day at the moment.. haha
I dont know why alot of people are against Ablett.
I will admit at the start of the season I chose Swan over him in my starting team and then when given the chance to upgrade to him in the midfield i chose not too, however now he is looking like the best choice.
Ablett is close to as low as he will likely get this year. Though currently ‘out of form’ (scoring 100′s not 130′s) he is the highest scoring player i dont own. I think he may miss another game this year, reson i chose swan over him, but theres much more chance Chappy will and always the possibility someone else will.
Wilson, you have just epitomised the definition of a ‘sideways trade!’ haha… I didn’t actually think that Murphy had been to bad this year – in fact, despite missing a week (and subsequently low game time on the weekend…), he has been VERY good. Whilst ALL the above players look tantalisingly good, sometimes you just have to accept some losses for 2010 and think about them for next year. Personally, i think Goddard was the only must-have out of all of these guys at round one (as he was a very good price and also a duel position player), so if you missed the boat on a couple it aint a huge problem.
Remember too that injuries can always strike heading to finals – you may just need to be looking at other mids in two weeks time if Murphy (or another) injures himself. There are so many variables to really give the right advice, but if it were me, i’d just choose one guy and stick with him.
Yeah, i knew it was a silly thought. I guess it was more frustration coming through than anything else. You’re right though, Murphy hasn’t been ‘bad’ by any stretch i suppose, just not as damaging as i’d hoped or maybe i have just set my standards too high from the day one?? haha..
Actually Toby, you might have some insight on this? As i am heavily considering the great man Lenny this week, i only noticed today that he had some sort of groin complaint from the weekends game, but seemed to have played through it. (with a bonus 2 goals in the last quarter, if you don’t mind!)
Do you think this is of any great concern, because i can’t seem to find much about it other than a couple of sources saying he pulled up sore? Begs the question whether he might get rested over the coming weeks if the Saints if that’s the case? And although Dan mentioned that your mob has a reasonably nonthreatening run home, (especially the last 4 games really) it makes me worry that bit more….
Thoughts?
i have 6 trades left do you think its worth using 3 trades to get Goddard and Montagna? (this will get rid of 2 donuts on my field and 1 on my bench)
Lenny is a little injury prone, not as much as Chapman by any stretch but still I would bank on him missing at least 1 game between now and the end of the year, if it’s anything like last year first week of finals :@.
The main problem though with Lenny, he consistently gets 10 or so points less than Montagna, which means you are automatically at a disadvantage vs any team with Monty. I would say Murphy at least has a chance of exceeding Montagna whereas Lenny plays for the same team so would usually have a similar score.
I would recommend saving that trade for finals unless you currently have over 8 or so remaining, can always offload Murphy then when you have a bit more of an idea if someone won’t be playing.
Yeah, i have conceded on the Murphy trade for now. I am talking a straight Barlow to Lenny trade at the moment, but you make some good points with him and Montagna actually. Definitely food for thought.
One bloke who i have been looking at that costs virtually the same as Lenny and very capable of pulling those big numbers, is Joel Corey.
Obviously he has been off the scene for quite a while now, but i cant see why he cant get back to the ‘Joel Corey of old’ for the remainder of the year…
Didn’t seem to miss a beat last week after a 9 week lay-off and if the Cats were to rest any players before finals, you would figure it’d be your Abletts’, Chappys’ or Bartels’ before him. Can’t see why he would miss any games from here on in, unless of course his injury flares up again, so it could also be a good advantage over those that might have to field a Dustin Martin to cover for a rested Montagna/Hayes/Ablett in Round 20, for example.
Anyway, i might be jumping the gun here as he might get a mention in Ben’s article tomorrow about left-field options.
Holman – funny you say that – This week going into the last game I had a 10 point lead and Montagna versus Hayes. Id take Montagna every day over Hayes in DT world (though probably not in real life).
GT
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