Footy Tragic
Due Diligence Is Key
Until about 6pm AEST, things were normal. Life was good. The weekend was thriving and Fremantle were enjoying their huge win over an underperforming Port Adelaide. But then disaster struck - two Freo players, Palmer and Barlow, ran towards the forward-50 arc with arms outstretched, eyes on a ball they each thought they could mark… But suddenly the flowers all wilted, fairies died, the sun went down and over 160,000 DT coaches shed a tear as Barlow had his left leg pushed from underneath him, snapping both his tibia and fibula in the process. Barlow’s season ends, and now we look to trade the good man out.
Theatrics aside, Barlow’s debut season has been a masterpiece - it has been the greatest DT rise in the history of dream team - Better than Rich, Trengove, Priddis, Sidebottom, Riewoldt, Hodge, Judd, Anthony and all others before him… The kid has been a superstar, and not only should we thank him for his ultra impressive high scoring, his consistency, his legacy… but also the fact he left behind him an impressive pot of money – $454,600 to be exact. So this week at Footy Tragic is going to be Barlow week – for the next three days, each Footy Tragic contributor will write up an article with suggestions for the forthcoming trade, arguably the biggest of the season. It is likely that many coaches will ponder the different theories behind the trade, so today my article will contain trade advice, proposing to you how best to deal with the situation. Tomorrow, Dan will look at the premium mids who have been the cream of the crop all year, analysing who will be the best pick for your team. Wednesday, Ben will look at the less selected players who may have slipped below everyone else’s radars, for those coaches looking for a slightly alternative selection. So good luck, and happy trading!
As stated above, I will focus my following article on the tactics involved with a trade at this point of the game. Firstly, I should make a point – regardless of whether you have one trade or ten trades left, I am of the opinion that you should be making a trade.
Rule #1: Trade – No matter what.
Barlow is the 6th most expensive player in the competition at the moment, and these are the kinds of players you need to burn a trade on. Essentially, even with just $5,000 in the bank you could trade to anyone except Goddard or Swan, meaning the points gain between a rookie (who may come in off your bench) and one of the many elite midfielders you could choose from is massive. There is NO POINT putting Barlow on your bench and playing a rookie, even if it is a relatively consistent player such as Trengove or Martin. The average gain between these players and someone such as Ablett, Chapman or Montagna is around 50-60 points – easily enough to be the difference between winning and losing your finals.
I feel like a lot of this article is going to be based around what NOT to do, rather than what to do with this trade, but I think that this is due to there being plenty of traps when it comes to trading such a player. For much of the year, our aim has been to target cheaper players, players on the rise whom we can bring into our team, nurture and sell for a profit. However, at this stage of the game, with finals only four weeks away, the aim is now to load up on as many elite players as possible – not to make money. I worry that plenty of coaches will start their searches around the expensive end, then as they pan down the list may begin to find some players considered more a ‘bargain’ than those priced similar to Barlow. Don’t get sucked in, whatever you do! They may be a bargain at $350,000, but in reality, you are probably only buying a player worth no more than $400,000. This to me is stupid when you could quite easily bring an elite player (top 5-10 in the competition) straight into your team. A move like this could quite easily cost you in excess of 20 points a week.
Rule #2: Don’t trade for the sake of a ‘Bargain.’
This brings me straight to my third rule:
Rule #3: At this time of year, breakeven’s are irrelevant!
Who cares about trading in an elite player with a high breakeven if you KNOW they are on the up? Players like Chapman, Ablett, Hodge and Murphy all have somewhat unreachable breakevens, but this in no way means you should wait for them to drop! What’s the point of costing yourself in excess of 100 points just so you can save $10-$30k? No point – exactly. If you can find a reason for that odd game that has sunken their price, then I wouldn’t hesitate to bring them into my team.
This next rule is an obvious one, but it applies now more than ever;
Rule #4: Inspect thoroughly before purchase.
The last thing you want to do is have to trade this player out of your team again in two or three weeks because he has been carrying an injury. Do your research on the players all the way up to an hour before lockout – find the forums for your chosen player’s club and investigate for any evidence or rumour that may suggest he is carrying an injury. Looking at Montagna or Goddard? Visit www.saintsational.com. Looking at Chapman or Ablett? Go to the Cats board on www.bigfooty.com, etc. These forums are free to view and filled with so many club supporters happy to discuss their players (Don’t start threads titled “Is player X injured?” though or you may find your question unanswered). You would be thorough if buying a car or house – the same diligence should be used for your dream team!
This time of year, some teams may begin to rest players, and more often then not, these players are in teams out of finals calculation.
Rule #5: Don’t buy from the bottom 8.
Whilst Scott Thompson, Brad Green or Boomer Harvey may be in great form, the slightest injury concern will likely see them rested. They have nothing left to play for, so their clubs aren’t about to risk a significant injury to any key personnel. Make this rule a constant one for all remaining trades, except for perhaps rookies, as the last thing you want is to discover an article on Friday titled “Cox to sit out season with ankle injury.” Don’t scoff – it may happen.
The number one player in the league at the moment is Dane Swan, and quite possibly he will be out of the reach of many teams, sitting at $57,500 more expensive than Barlow. Whilst theoretically Swan may be the best pickup if you don’t already have him, I believe a double trade is not worth it.
Rule #6: Do not use a double trade to pick up a more expensive midfielder.
When you could quite easily afford players like Montagna, Ablett, Chapman or Boyd, I don’t believe players like Swan or Goddard are worth two trades, especially this time of year.
Perhaps the only time I could condone a double trade would be if you are also looking at upgrading in another position on the ground. Say, for example, you are also short a forward (e.g. Brown is your seventh forward), you could use Barlow’s huge price as leverage to also afford a better quality forward than what Brown’s price may otherwise allow you. One theory I have toyed with, which may be of interest to others, is upgrading Brown to Chapman by trading Barlow to a more mid-priced midfielder. Whilst this goes against plenty of my rules, in theory you are still trading in a top-line midfielder in Chapman, but just in a different spot. Also, arguably, mid-priced midfielders should score better than mid-priced forward, although most midfielders around the $300k mark are probably not going to help your team substantially. This theory would only work if you had enough money in the bank (Approx. $50k) to bring in a midfielder such as Stanton, McVeigh (Sydney), Cassissi or Carrazzo.
Rule #7: Don’t rob Peter to pay Paul
There is no point bringing in an elite forward (or any other position for that matter) if you are just going to fill the midfield spot with rubbish so that you can afford it. The theory can only work if both sides are allotted strong players. So, only attempt this discussed double trade if your finances allow you to bring in TWO premium players, not one and a half!
Rule #8: Press your own trade button.
Think it through, make up your own mind, and when you have decided, press ‘trade.’ At the end of the day, this game should be played on your own terms and you need to be happy with your own selections – don’t let someone else convince you into a trade you may regret, as once that button is clicked, Barlow is gone and there is no turning back.
So I think I have probably made it pretty clear of my suggestions. Personally, I am trading Barlow to Montagna, but am looking forward to hear the cases for plenty of other players over the next couple of days. Best of luck to you for what may prove to be the biggest trade of the season – and as usual, feel free to discuss your own dilemmas or theories below, hopefully we at Footy Tragic or one of your fellow posters can help you come to the correct conclusion.

22 Comments on Due Diligence Is Key
Toby,
Completely agree with you. I think Barlow to Montagna is the best way to go. Thinking ultra-critically, the only downside will be that I think every man and his dog will head that way.
For me, I’m looking for a Premium mid who is (relatively) unique. I don’t want to sacrifice quality for uniqueness, but I can’t see the point of having too many players that over 50% of the league already have. I don’t have Ablett, but won’t pick him up because (a) I already have Jimmy, and (b)171,367 people already have him.
So, on that basis, Montagna is the standout.
Kade Simpson and/or Daniel Cross may be worth a look also?
Priddis has potential, but is DT poison (being from West Coast), and I don’t trust Brad Green as far as I can kick him (and i’m not that tall, so that’s not very far)
(I have Boyd, Pendles and Lewis)
Hi Toby,
Great write up on the Barlow trade dimemna, however, I disagree with the MUST trade philosophy, regardless of number of trades left.
If you have 4 or more trades I would agree, however any less and you run the risk of trading in a gun only to see them get injured or rested come DT finals time.
Personally I only have 2 trades left, I have bench cover, am sitting 2nd in my league, with 4 easy games against bottom 8 duds, so should stay 2nd, I’m no chance of winning the car, so I’m now all about winning my league.
To trade out Barlow now would only result in me winning my last 4 games by an extra 50 points or so, but with the HUGE risk of the premium I trade in getting injured or rested come round 19, when finals start.
I’m much better off putting Barlow on the bench until the Friday night before round 19, when the teams are out and I know who I’m playing in my first final and have assessed his/her team.
That’s when I’ll be trading Barlow out.
Cheers,
Gazz
wow i can’t believe it was up all along haha! Worth the wait anyway mate thanks for the info, love your work.
I don’t have Ablett either and I’m not getting him. Barlow -> Montagna for me.
barlow -> chapman for me. had a poor run of injuries the last couple of weeks: brown, kreuzer, barlow, fyfe, grimes…
Thanks for the article Toby, great work as usual – I’ve been looking forward to reading it since yesterday – and am also keen to read tomorrow’s piece :-)
For those that haven’t heard, Sam Mitchell is OUT for Round 15 with a broken hand – so he’s not an option if you’re looking to trade this week as I am. I’m 9th on the ladder in one of my Leagues, so keeping Barlow is sadly not an option.
Similarly to eebzzub and Greg, at this stage I’ve ruled Ablett out as an option, but intend to spend more time than I’ve spent in the last 6 weeks or so combined, in planning what I intend to do trade-wise over the next 2-3 weeks as I’ve also got issues in the Forwards and Ruck to deal with.
I think i’ll go with either Montagna or Boyd
I have to downgrade Howett aswell to a player under $165,000 got any ideas?
(im thinking Jay Van Berlo or Koby Steven(if he gets a game this week))
(It needs to be a player under 165k so i can upgrade Paul Bower(injured) to goddard)
Spending an 80k for a 10 point avge bump is folly. You could get Gilbert instead, and save 80k, and take a 10 point hit.
However, if you insist on Goddard, why don’t you downgrade Nason to Strijk?
thanks eebzzub but howlett wont play many more games maybe 1 or 2 this season and nason will play most.
Ill definitely consider Gilbert
thanks
Hey good to hear everyone enjoyed the read. And Gazzastream, i can understand your point of view, and if fact, would encourage you to persue your own theory there. I guess it gives you the option to bite the bullet whenever you see fit.
Maanco, surely the Barlow trade is the most important? I can understand you wanting to bring Goddard in, but perhaps that trade is worth waiting on – especially if you have Nason on your bench – Bower may only we another week or two away, so whilst you are surely sick of him, he may be worth persisting with. Offloading him will cost you a trade (or two if you need extra cash) which i feel may not be worth it when you could save your cash as suggested by eebzzub…
thanks toby do you even think its worth trading Howlett out i would only end up being for cash so if i wanted i could downgrade him to a 77k DP and get more cash
On Average how many players get injured in the 8 weeks?
Toby, i am interested to hear your thoughts on what to do with Sylvia and if he is not to be named again this week. Safe to say he has been probably the biggest disappointment of my team this year, as i’m sure many others, and if he does not play AGAIN this week i am starting to question the point of holding onto him, or if he will get back to any sort of reasonable form.
I have been considering you comments on using Barlow’s cash as leverage to upgrade him to Chappy, then bringing in a sub-premium mid for Barlow. I guess it’s the same situation for Brown owners but at least he has been given some sort of time-frame with his injury, where as Sylvia just seems to be in limbo for selection at the moment and i can only assume his toe injury is ongoing perhaps??
Also, slightly digressing from ‘Barlow-mania’ for a minute.. What are peoples thoughts on Heath Scotland at the moment? After a few down weeks and consequent price drops, his current price tag is quite tempting. I currently have the coin to trade Barlow to virtually anyone, but have also been thinking of off-loading Rhyce Shaw to strengthen my team before finals.
Although, Rhyce has taunted me with scoring a ton this week against the Tigers, the bastard… still, 2 tons for the year is just not good enough.
Thoughts?
Wilson, i have some good news for you: Sylvia played in the VFL on the weekend, and by all reports had a strong showing. From all reports, he will definitely play this week.
As for Scotland, I don’t mind him as a pick if you HAD to make a backline trade, but i feel that offloading Shaw at this time of year is simply a trade for the sake of a trade. He may strengthen your team, but his numbers have been down for a reason – his form of late hasnt been terrific, and even though he managed to clock the ton against Brisbane, he wasn’t prolific in any way, he simply got on the end of plenty of cheap ball. If Goddard or Hodge were bottomed out (proven elite players who can DEFINITELY improve your team), then i’d definitely recommend the trade. But how you are situated at the moment, I’d personally be leaving it…
But in saying all this, don’t forget Rule #8…
i’m still undecided on my trade for barlow.
maanco – be easier to get help if you say how many trades u have left.
Just a quick note – the wednesday link on the homepage currently links to today’s article. Can you just add a comment here of a back way into that article if the wednesday link doesn’t work in the morning? Thanks heaps boys always look forward to the articles and comments each day!!
GT
Good to hear that news on Sylvia, thanks Toby! At least that removes the temptation to trade him for now! hehe..
And yeah, i can see your point with Scotland, but the reason i like him is for that very reason you mentioned! He IS able to get on the end of plenty of cheap ball more often than not, which is why i rate him as a DT option. He isn’t the greatest footballer but has always been quite serviceable for DT over the years.
My current situation is that i’m sitting 6th in a league ranked just outside the top 300, so very strong competition. My last 4 games are against teams that are outside of the 8, but i am still weary of them because i have had a few upsets this year in games i thought i had in the bag.
5 trades left with reasonable bench cover in all positions and no other injuries other than Barlow.. (hopefully Sylvia can come up this week)
Another option i’m toying with is going a little more on the unique side (uh oh, not that word again!) and going Barlow to Hayes and Shaw to Lake. I like the idea of Lake and Hayes being a point of difference in my team which can hopefully work to my advantage (or perhaps to my detriment?) against my opponents come finals, being that most of the top 8 sides in my league have your staple Goddard’s and Ablett’s as premium Back’s and Mid’s, respectively… what do you think?
GT, we are working on that problem, thanks. However, if you click the ‘Get Your Feed’ button on the homepage, it will always take you straight to the latest article. So if all else fails tomorrow, click that button!
P.S. Can’t wait until we unveil the new site in a couple of weeks! ;-) It’ll make issues like this a thing of the past! We are EXTREMELY excited about it and all it’s new features!
Wilso, I actually REALLY like your last suggestion! Lake can be up and down, but his best is amazing, whilst Lenny is in red-hot form too! I have him in my team and I love the man! I wouldnt worry about Sylvia – the fact he played on the weekend and pulled up well intimates he should play.
New website! SWEEET!! Can’t wait fellas!
Yeah, i’m starting to like the idea of Lake too acutally! I must admit, ever since he cranked out that 192 i scoffed at him and thought he’d get shoved back to his usual lock-down defensive role… but nope, he still seems to be running around with no opponent all the time and taking hundreds of marks!
Safe to say now that Lake is no longer a ‘Blip on the Radar’ in FootyTragic language, and has achieved genuine DT status??
nice new website any sneak peaks of what will be new toby.
It appears that Lake and Hargrave Swapped positions this year.
do you think its worth downgrading Howlett? (i have 6trades left)(i could downgrade him to a 77k DP and get more cash)
Maanco, with Howlett I’d wait to see Essendon’s team this week. After their shocking display on the weekend there will be a heap of changes. He’s in serious trouble if he can’t even crack the 25 this week.
Unfortunately I already have Ablett, Montagna, Boyd and Bartel in my midfield and Hodge, Goddard and Chapman elsewhere. Really my only good option is Swan.
Currently I have Nason on the field and Maguire on the bench, I’m thinking a triple trade over 2 weeks, Maguire – strjkrjrk (close enough spelling) and Barlow – Swan first week then Nason – Scotland/ Gilbert. Just hoping the cash allows coz itll be $50 k for Swan then about 150-200 for scotland or gilbert.
Good times!
Like the sound of them Holman – if you have the trades, all three of them are a win. What’s more, your downgrade target in Strijk is a winner – he looks a very good prospect, and obviously offers more to your team than Goose at the moment.
Maanco, money isnt important this time of year – if you havent finilised your benches at this stage, then its too late. You need to fix the rest of your team first. THEN if you have trades left, trade Howlett to the best mid option at his price.
And as far as the new website goes, we don’t wanna give too much away, but it will be a new look site, much easier to navigate, including a few new features which should dramatically help your team! We’re disappointed we couldnt get it up earlier, but we have been working on it since pre-season this year! Should be a cracker though!
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