Footy Tragic

The Team:

The Bulldogs look certain to be on the rise in 2010 - already they have dominated the pre-season competition and look to have their full contingent of players ready to go for round one. The Dogs are a team who have typically been very good at dream team, but I expect in 2010 that they will be even better. They are an attacking juggernaut, and now with Barry Hall leading the forward line they are looking very formidable. High scoring teams (such as the Bulldogs) typically translates to high dream team scores, and now with their added push on tackling, they look to be capable of making some pretty big numbers this year, especially against some of the weaker teams in the competition. Further to this, the Dogs have very few players in their team that do not rotate through the middle for some point in each game, and just about every player is capable of kicking a goal or two. Do not be afraid to load up on Bulldogs this year, especially with some of their well-priced forwards and mids who look very capable of taking it up another notch in 2010.

Who’s Hot?:

Daniel Cross ($420,900): Recovered well from post season ankle surgery and looks set to have a big year. One of the fittest players in the comp, makes up for being handball happy by being a tackle maniac.

Ryan Hargrave ($409,500): With Morris, Lake and Williams playing shut down roles and Gilbee and Harbrow attracting opposition attention, Hargrave has the luxury of playing fairly loose, but not copping a forward tag

Barry Hall ($291,200): Although having a limited pre-season, he has come out of the blocks in the NAB cup at full throttle, proving that although he has a huge downside, there are also plenty of upsides to consider.

Daniel Giansiracusa ($378,500): Has had a fantastic pre-season and despite concerns over his durability, his knee injury last year was the first time he’d missed a game since 2006 
 

Who’s Not?:

Callan Ward: Very poor pre-season comp and suffered a slight niggle in the NAB Cup Grand Final.

Sam Reid: Recovering slowly from groin surgery. Was this injury sustained last year in his famous footage from on the bench??

Brad Johnson: Mr.Durable is battling to get on the track for pretty much the first time in his career. Has had niggles, without suffering any serious setbacks. 

The Bargain:

Barry Hall ($281,200): Barry is a very interesting prospect for 2010. Coming into the pre-season competition, I scoffed and anyone who so much as suggested they were putting him in their team – at 33 years of age and with his horrible on-field history, he simply screams of DT disaster. And that is still not untrue, but after seeing his incredible form across his three NAB cup games, it is hard not to consider him in your forward line. If we were to start by looking at the negatives, we would start by talking about his opposition; In the NAB cup, he has played against far shorter or skinnier opponents (except maybe Carlile). Although cracking the Saints typically impenetrable defense, it is worth noting that Lyon never put one of his stronger bodied defenders (such as Blake) onto Hall as a way of teaching his younger developing players, such as Dawson and Gaertner. Therefore it is worth taking his 7-goal haul somewhat with a grain of salt. Also, at Barry’s age he is an injury risk and carries 90 odd demerit points and a 50% loading hanging over his head! Now onto the positives; Firstly, he’s priced as a player who averages 64, and all going well he is a potential keeper, and all going badly he should have at least made you some money. What is really appealing about Barry is his role as the key forward in a highly attacking team such as the Bulldogs – perhaps it is easy to understand why he got so frustrated when playing for the Swans – it hardly ever went down to him! And we have seen this pre-season that the Doggies will do everything it takes to put him one-out with his opponent in the goalsquare (and there are very few defenders in the AFL who would be capable of matching it with Barry for strength and speed), meaning the chances of scoring high are very good. Perhaps the conclusion to take from Barry is that maybe he is not one to treat as someone you plan on keeping, but if he stays injury and suspension free there’s no reason why he couldn’t be your 5^th, 6^th or 7^th forward.

The Kid:

Brodie Moles ($94,500): Let’s face it, Moles is the only kid who’s any chance of cracking a game for the Dogs this year unless Roughead comes in if one of Minson or Hudson due to injury. At 24 years of age and straight off Geelong’s rookie list, Moles seems a player capable of stepping straight into the pace of AFL. He has been fantastic in the NAB, is very clean below his knees, has good pace and a thumping right foot. Job security is his main issue due to playing in such a good team. However, my gut-feel (and a feeling shared by Bulldogs-buff Dan) is that he’ll get in Round 1 and simply not let go of his spot. The expectation is that he will be promoted to the senior list in place for injured first year player Howard, who has already been placed on the Dog’s long term injury list (which brings up another issue as Howard is expected to be back about Round 6) so the worry is that he might not be there for a long time! So far this NAB series he has average 53 points, which is pretty reasonable for a player you should mainly have just sitting on your bench (the hope is that an occasional 70 – 80 will increase his price much faster).

The Premium:

Matthew Boyd ($456,400): Boyd is and always has been a super reliable and consistent dream teamer. You pretty much know what you’ll get – 22 games at an average of 105. Boyd doesn’t quite have the upside of other premiums, but makes up for it in spades with his amazing consistency. In 2009, he clocked up only five scores below 90, with the lowest being a still reasonable 75 (vs. Sydney). Not only is he consistent, but he is very capable of bringing in some pretty high scores. In 2009, he got his owners a total of 13 tons, including a four week run of 128, 111, 112 and 140! He is the type of player you can sit in your midfield and know what you are going to get week after week after week – he won’t increase in value or average, but nor should he go down. To make things even more tasty, he is a surprisingly unpopular DT selection – this is mainly attributed to him being a real meat and potatoes midfielder – he isn’t a Gary Ablett or Luke Hodge, so many coaches won’t pick him as he always tends to go unnoticed through games. This attribute also means he is a long way from attracting a tag behind the likes of Cooney, Griffen, Aker, Gilbee, Higgins. If you are concerned about the potential downside of many premium midfielders, then look no further than Boyd, and lock him in for an average of around 105 all year round. 

The Smokey:

Robert Murphy ($350,800): Murphy averaged 89 DT points in 2008, but then proceeded to struggle with injury for a lot last year, playing a total of just 16 games. Murphy is a very important player for the Bulldogs as he is effectively their CHF – and again this year he will likely play a hit up role for the pass just before the ball heads to Hall, meaning that there is going to be plenty of marks, kicks and goals added to Murphy’s tally in 2010. This NAB series, he has gotten scores of 14 (not playing the entire game), 74, 76 and 69, so he hasn’t exactly blown us away. In 2008 however, when he was last playing at his peak, Murphy averaged 89 points, top scoring with 149 points (which was one of seven tonnes he scored for the year). Also, he only dropped below 75 points on five occasions. This pre-season, Murphy has been fantastic on the track, and heavily suggested that he is capable of returning to his 2008 form – there are plenty of reasons why he dropped off in 2009 (all injury related), but now that he is totally over all of these issues, he is every chance to play 22 games and average 90-odd points. If you do choose him, the expectation will be for him to be a keeper – and I think that $350k is a reasonable sum to pay for a player who does not need to be traded and should score consistently through the year in one of the league’s best sides.