Footy Tragic

LIST COMPISITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 5 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 2 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 7 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 6 (3.1)

Key Back: 5 (4.4)

Med Back: 5 (7.0)

Small Back: 5 (1.6)

Ruck: 4 (3.4)

Utility: 3 (1.1)

18-21: 20 (12.2)

22-25: 17 (16.9)

26-28: 6 (7.3)

29+: 2 (5.8)

Melbourne’s list is incredibly raw, with so many players aged between 18-21 and a few more just edging into the 22-25 bracket, any potential window is a few years away.

The club desperately lacks class midfielders, losing Scully has compounded that. If Jack Grimes can overcome his injury woes he has the game to become an inside midfielder, Tapscott and Bail are also bulls who could be part of the centre square rotations in 2012. The real deficiency is the Dees’ outside midfield stocks, the lack of outside running options with clean disposal and good decision making skills makes life hell for the forwards. Sam Blease has the pace and foot skills to help out in this area, ditto Dan Nicholson but this is a need that Melbourne should be really trying to address in the next couple of drafts.

The Key Forward cupboard is also quite bare; Watts is still very young and will hope to benefit from new recruit Mitch Clark’s addition to the team. Cook may play some senior football next year but Melbourne will be relying on a structure of Clark and Watts with ruckman Jamar and possibly Stefan Martin pinch hitting in 2012 this is another area which Melbourne must prioritise in upcoming drafts.

Melbourne have a plethora of mid size forwards that have all proven that they can cut it at AFL level at various stages of their career. Green, Howe, Petterd, Jurrah and Sylvia are all arguably in the team’s best 22. Sylvia and possibly Petterd & Green will be called upon to pinch hit through the midfield while Jurrah who was average in 2011 yet still kicked 40 goals will be another looking to benefit from Mitch Clark’s addition to the forward line. Bate and Dunn provide good cover in the VFL and under a new coach may find a new lease of life.

The small forward stocks are a worry and the team lacks a genuine crumber who can offer consistent defensive pressure. Bennell shows glimpses of class but doesn’t impose himself on enough contests, Jetta is probably more of midfielder in the Cruize Garlett mould and Wonaeamirri has struggled with fitness and form since 2009. Other than that Maric appears bound for North Melbourne and Johnston and Lawrence are rookies who didn’t set the VFL world on fire in 2011

Lead by Frawley and Garland, Melbourne are pretty well served for key defenders. Jared Rivers has returned to some decent fitness and form over the past three seasons but will most likely face a big challenge as Troy Davis and Tom McDonald fill out in coming seasons. Stefan Martin also has the ability to cover in defence if required as that was where he cut his teeth in his first two seasons of AFL.

On the surface it would appear that Melbourne are very deficient for mid size defenders in 2012. Strauss was horrifically injured in 2011 and will take time to get back let alone play in 2012, Grimes has struggled with injury in the past and Macdonald & McNamara’s futures are up in the air at the moment. However given the pace versatility of Garland & Frawley and the bigger bodied smalls such as Bartram, Nicholson, Bail and Tapscott there’s probably enough cover there for the shorter term. The smalls aren’t particularly classy but can get the job done.

The ruck is looming as a position of great depth at Melbourne in 2012. Jamar, Clark and Martin have all played well at AFL level, Gawn is an exciting prospect and the athletic Fitzpatrick is a medium to long term project player. Spencer and Campbell’s futures are somewhat uncertain at present but if retained could provide some adequate back up.

SUMMARY:

Melbourne are a very young list that could do with a couple more midfielders and another key forward. The backline and ruck depth is pretty good. Tweeners such as Sylvia and Davey will be required to cover gaps in the middle and forward in 2012. Any push up the ladder in 2012 will depend upon how senior players such as Green, Sylvia, Moloney and Davey react to new coach Mark Neeld as well as the improvement of Watts and Jurrah & what Mitch Clark can bring to the table. However the list is still very much in development mode and improvement should come with experience.

FANTASY SPIN:

Moloney and Jamar are pretty solid options

Watts and Jurrah could benefit from the addition of Mitch Clark to the Dees forward line.

Green, Sylvia and Davey are all better than their 2011 output.

Both Blease and Garland’s kicking is excellent if you are looking for a Supercoach defender.

Trengove looks ready to explode.

The Team:

The Bulldogs look certain to be on the rise in 2010 - already they have dominated the pre-season competition and look to have their full contingent of players ready to go for round one. The Dogs are a team who have typically been very good at dream team, but I expect in 2010 that they will be even better. They are an attacking juggernaut, and now with Barry Hall leading the forward line they are looking very formidable. High scoring teams (such as the Bulldogs) typically translates to high dream team scores, and now with their added push on tackling, they look to be capable of making some pretty big numbers this year, especially against some of the weaker teams in the competition. Further to this, the Dogs have very few players in their team that do not rotate through the middle for some point in each game, and just about every player is capable of kicking a goal or two. Do not be afraid to load up on Bulldogs this year, especially with some of their well-priced forwards and mids who look very capable of taking it up another notch in 2010.

Who’s Hot?:

Daniel Cross ($420,900): Recovered well from post season ankle surgery and looks set to have a big year. One of the fittest players in the comp, makes up for being handball happy by being a tackle maniac.

Ryan Hargrave ($409,500): With Morris, Lake and Williams playing shut down roles and Gilbee and Harbrow attracting opposition attention, Hargrave has the luxury of playing fairly loose, but not copping a forward tag

Barry Hall ($291,200): Although having a limited pre-season, he has come out of the blocks in the NAB cup at full throttle, proving that although he has a huge downside, there are also plenty of upsides to consider.

Daniel Giansiracusa ($378,500): Has had a fantastic pre-season and despite concerns over his durability, his knee injury last year was the first time he’d missed a game since 2006 
 

Who’s Not?:

Callan Ward: Very poor pre-season comp and suffered a slight niggle in the NAB Cup Grand Final.

Sam Reid: Recovering slowly from groin surgery. Was this injury sustained last year in his famous footage from on the bench??

Brad Johnson: Mr.Durable is battling to get on the track for pretty much the first time in his career. Has had niggles, without suffering any serious setbacks. 

The Bargain:

Barry Hall ($281,200): Barry is a very interesting prospect for 2010. Coming into the pre-season competition, I scoffed and anyone who so much as suggested they were putting him in their team – at 33 years of age and with his horrible on-field history, he simply screams of DT disaster. And that is still not untrue, but after seeing his incredible form across his three NAB cup games, it is hard not to consider him in your forward line. If we were to start by looking at the negatives, we would start by talking about his opposition; In the NAB cup, he has played against far shorter or skinnier opponents (except maybe Carlile). Although cracking the Saints typically impenetrable defense, it is worth noting that Lyon never put one of his stronger bodied defenders (such as Blake) onto Hall as a way of teaching his younger developing players, such as Dawson and Gaertner. Therefore it is worth taking his 7-goal haul somewhat with a grain of salt. Also, at Barry’s age he is an injury risk and carries 90 odd demerit points and a 50% loading hanging over his head! Now onto the positives; Firstly, he’s priced as a player who averages 64, and all going well he is a potential keeper, and all going badly he should have at least made you some money. What is really appealing about Barry is his role as the key forward in a highly attacking team such as the Bulldogs – perhaps it is easy to understand why he got so frustrated when playing for the Swans – it hardly ever went down to him! And we have seen this pre-season that the Doggies will do everything it takes to put him one-out with his opponent in the goalsquare (and there are very few defenders in the AFL who would be capable of matching it with Barry for strength and speed), meaning the chances of scoring high are very good. Perhaps the conclusion to take from Barry is that maybe he is not one to treat as someone you plan on keeping, but if he stays injury and suspension free there’s no reason why he couldn’t be your 5^th, 6^th or 7^th forward.

The Kid:

Brodie Moles ($94,500): Let’s face it, Moles is the only kid who’s any chance of cracking a game for the Dogs this year unless Roughead comes in if one of Minson or Hudson due to injury. At 24 years of age and straight off Geelong’s rookie list, Moles seems a player capable of stepping straight into the pace of AFL. He has been fantastic in the NAB, is very clean below his knees, has good pace and a thumping right foot. Job security is his main issue due to playing in such a good team. However, my gut-feel (and a feeling shared by Bulldogs-buff Dan) is that he’ll get in Round 1 and simply not let go of his spot. The expectation is that he will be promoted to the senior list in place for injured first year player Howard, who has already been placed on the Dog’s long term injury list (which brings up another issue as Howard is expected to be back about Round 6) so the worry is that he might not be there for a long time! So far this NAB series he has average 53 points, which is pretty reasonable for a player you should mainly have just sitting on your bench (the hope is that an occasional 70 – 80 will increase his price much faster).

The Premium:

Matthew Boyd ($456,400): Boyd is and always has been a super reliable and consistent dream teamer. You pretty much know what you’ll get – 22 games at an average of 105. Boyd doesn’t quite have the upside of other premiums, but makes up for it in spades with his amazing consistency. In 2009, he clocked up only five scores below 90, with the lowest being a still reasonable 75 (vs. Sydney). Not only is he consistent, but he is very capable of bringing in some pretty high scores. In 2009, he got his owners a total of 13 tons, including a four week run of 128, 111, 112 and 140! He is the type of player you can sit in your midfield and know what you are going to get week after week after week – he won’t increase in value or average, but nor should he go down. To make things even more tasty, he is a surprisingly unpopular DT selection – this is mainly attributed to him being a real meat and potatoes midfielder – he isn’t a Gary Ablett or Luke Hodge, so many coaches won’t pick him as he always tends to go unnoticed through games. This attribute also means he is a long way from attracting a tag behind the likes of Cooney, Griffen, Aker, Gilbee, Higgins. If you are concerned about the potential downside of many premium midfielders, then look no further than Boyd, and lock him in for an average of around 105 all year round. 

The Smokey:

Robert Murphy ($350,800): Murphy averaged 89 DT points in 2008, but then proceeded to struggle with injury for a lot last year, playing a total of just 16 games. Murphy is a very important player for the Bulldogs as he is effectively their CHF – and again this year he will likely play a hit up role for the pass just before the ball heads to Hall, meaning that there is going to be plenty of marks, kicks and goals added to Murphy’s tally in 2010. This NAB series, he has gotten scores of 14 (not playing the entire game), 74, 76 and 69, so he hasn’t exactly blown us away. In 2008 however, when he was last playing at his peak, Murphy averaged 89 points, top scoring with 149 points (which was one of seven tonnes he scored for the year). Also, he only dropped below 75 points on five occasions. This pre-season, Murphy has been fantastic on the track, and heavily suggested that he is capable of returning to his 2008 form – there are plenty of reasons why he dropped off in 2009 (all injury related), but now that he is totally over all of these issues, he is every chance to play 22 games and average 90-odd points. If you do choose him, the expectation will be for him to be a keeper – and I think that $350k is a reasonable sum to pay for a player who does not need to be traded and should score consistently through the year in one of the league’s best sides.

The Team:

2009 started for the Eagles much like how 2008 finished - poorly. They looked likely to finish once again in the bottom two and with no real positive future in sight. But how things changed by the end of the year – they ended up winning eight games, placing them a reasonable 11^th on the ladder. And seemingly, the only way looks to be up in 2010 – already they have started the year strongly with 3 out of four wins in the NAB cup – and most of those wins were very strong ones too. I am tipping them for a spot in the eight in 2010. West Coast’s DT pickings will be in their mid-priced players (of whom they have plenty) – these are the players that really began coming along towards the end of last year (Naitanui, Kennedy, Swift, Masten) and will continue to grow in 2010. There are very few players on their list who are on the downward spiral (they have no players 30 or over), so you can confidently pick Eagles, knowing full well that they should make you some money. Also, with their home-ground being Subiaco, there is much more kicking (and therefore marking) in their gameplan – Subi is a much longer ground than most, meaning disposals and all other key DT stats are increased.  

Who’s Hot?:

Nick Naitanui ($232,400): Not unexpectedly, the Panther had a massive pre-season and showed us the results in a couple of amazing NAB cup displays! Has all the tools to be a great footballer and more importantly, a great dream teamer!

Brad Sheppard ($133,500): The first year player has been praised for his amazing maturity since coming to the club – he is a very strong runner with great vision and pace and looks to have put his name heavily into round one calculations.

Luke Shuey ($94,500): Has really stepped up his training after an injury plagued 2009. The best bit is that he hasn’t just trained strongly, but his NAB games have also been both brilliant and consistent. Should really step up this year.

Chris Masten ($293,900): Has had a massive pre-season both on the track and on the field. Has really stepped up his running and worked on his disposal. All signs are pointing to a breakout season for the kid with him already winning stacks of the ball through all the NAB games as well as the Eagle’s intraclub.

Daniel Kerr ($271,600): Been one of the stars on the track this pre-season, looking very much like he could be getting back to his best in 2010. He is apparently totally over his groin issues from 2009. 

Who’s Not?:

Dean Cox: Took a very long time to recover from his 2009 groin issues and we have subsequently seen very little of him this pre-season. For the first time in many years, he should not be the first player selected in your team, if at all!

Beau Waters: Looked to have finally recovered from his elbow injury before injuring his knee mid-January. Fortunately, he was very fit up until this point, suggesting he won’t be totally underdone going into the season

Eric Mackenzie: Had shoulder surgery in the off-season and therefore is still quite underdone. 

The Bargain:

Beau Waters ($152,800): As with every bargain, there is often a reason behind why they are so cheap – for Waters, the problem is that he has played a total of just eight games in the past two years. His main impediment has been an issue with a dislocated elbow which he suffered in 2008, forcing him to miss the entire 2009 season. If we pretend that this injury history doesn’t exist, he is a fantastic pickup – at his best, Waters was a great rebounding defender, known for his ferocious attack on the ball and the ball carrier. In his last full season (2007), Waters averaged 79 DT points, including a score as high as 130 – definitely pretty good for a defender. His downside though is obvious – these injuries (which nearly ended his career) are not to be taken lightly – there is every chance he could break down again and cost you a valuable trade. His other problem is his known inconsistency – even at his best, Waters would post scores of 120 one week and 40 the next (as his did in 2008). And as an owner of Waters in 2008, I can tell you that it was mighty frustrating. Now reflecting on these two issues, it is fair to say that at a touch over $150k, I am prepared to cop inconsistency – the only other players I will pick up for this price are first or second year kids (or Presti!), who probably don’t have as much upside as Waters. As for the injury, the reports are suggesting that he is back at full fitness. He actually recovered from the elbow injury by the end of last year and was in fact training very well until suffering from a knee complaint that sidelined him until after Christmas. Fortunately, his huge pre-season to that point was enough to tide his fitness over. We have also seen him three times so far in the NAB cup – he has impressed in patches of games (and was a standout against the Blues), suggesting his body is ready for round one. I can’t give you a guarantee he will remain fit, but I do believe that if he is to stay on the park, he is one of the better buys of 2010.

The Kid:

Luke Shuey ($94,500): It would be hard to be a dream team fanatic and not have heard Shuey’s name this pre-season. Shuey is a second year player (who was drafted at pick 18 in the 2008 draft) and looks set to make his debut in round one this season, such was the quality of his NAB cup. Firstly, a history lesson – As a junior, Shuey was noted for his bash and crash style of play, much like a Nathan Jones or Luke Ball. In addition, Shuey was also highly regarded for his ball winning ability – In the 2008 Under 18 National Championships, Shuey averaged 18 disposals, 3 marks and 3 tackles in his 4 games, and to cap off his carnival, he was named Vic Metro’s Best and Fairest player. He also has great endurance, clocking up an impressive 14.4 beep test at the state screenings. Unfortunately, we were not able to see any of this potential in 2009 as Shuey both broke his leg and had to return to Victoria for family reasons – essentially, it was a debut season to forget for the youngster. But if his 2010 pre-season is anything to go by, Shuey is set for a much more influential year this year. He has played in all of the Eagle’s NAB cup matches and has been one of their better players throughout. And unlike many of his younger teammates who have been given point-draining roles in the forward line and backline, Shuey has been repeatedly placed on the wing, averaging 62 points in his first two games. West Coast are on their way up in 2010 and will be looking to lock in a team and attempt to stick with it for 22 rounds – especially through their midfield as they give ample time to the developing youngsters such as Shuey. I feel very confident suggesting Shuey for your DT midfield bench – not only is he a strong bodied player capable of competing at the highest level, but he’s is a great ball winner and looks to have already secured himself a spot in the team round one. 

The Premium:

Adam Selwood ($386,500): Selwood is probably the ‘smokiest’ premium I have talked about this pre-season, but that doesn’t make me any less confident he can get the big numbers. In previous years, Selwood has often been the Eagle’s first choice tagger, playing his games with the sole aim of taking his opposition out of the contest. However, in the second half of 2009 things changed – rather than attempting to shut down a player, he instead went head to head with them, meaning his game revolved more around winning possessions and clearances, effectively hurting his opposition in the other direction. This caused a dramatic increase in Selwood’s dream team ability, lifting his average from 72 in 2008 to 88 points in 2009. I believe that with a full season playing like this he is a good chance to add another 5 – 10 points to that average. So far this pre-season, we have seen that his numbers are going anywhere but down – he has already pulled in scores of 39 (only playing 2 quarters), 107, 121 and had another big game on Saturday (which we are yet to see the scores from). Admittedly, I am finding him very hard to squeeze into my lineup due to his tricky price-point – he is neither premium priced, nor mid-priced, meaning any team structure you are working on needs to be thrown out the window. But if you can get him in there I believe you will be very heavily rewarded – he has huge potential to score some massive points this year, and whilst you may have to suffer through the odd 70 score, I believe that at this price there is very little that can go wrong. 

The Smokey:

Daniel Kerr ($271,600): Two years ago, Kerr would have easily fitted into the above category, but his recent problems both in the medical room and at the tribunal have seen both his footy game and dream team game take a significant dip. Kerr’s loss of form has also been mirrored by the team’s loss of fellow premium midfielders, Cousins and Judd. As soon as they were out the door, all opposition attention turned to Kerr as he was clearly the best midfielder in the lineup – the fact he only had kids playing as teammates meant there was never any blocking the opposition or helping him out. Nothing has really changed in the past two years for Kerr and the question that now remains is how he will now cope with a much more developed midfield around him. Now with Masten and Priddis in the lineup, Kerr will not only have protection from teammates, but he may not always be the one given the close attention. A fantastic pre-season has also helped us believe that injuries are behind him and that the future is again bright for the little man. The problem with this selection is whether Kerr will in fact step up this year and be able to break the tag (because lets be honest, he will get it most weeks) – we have only seen him once this pre-season and he was reasonable without being spectacular. My gut feel is that Kerr is a no-go zone, but part of me also knows he has an immense upside. He can easily average a score in the 90′s when he’s on fire, but it is a massive risk to take for the hope of getting it. He won’t be in my team, but there are many coaches who will take the punt – and if they succeed, they will be heavily rewarded!

The Team:

Sydney has always been the team known as the dream team antichrist for a couple of reasons; firstly, their game plan sees very little ball use, leading them to be one of the lowest-disposal teams in the AFL. Also, due to the restrictive high-stoppage game plan which Sydney play, they often suck the life out of the opposition’s DT scores too. Therefore it is common knowledge; don’t ever name captain a player who is playing Sydney that weekend! Strangely though, I get this feeling we are going to see a slightly different Sydney in 2010 – their gameplan will surely stay the same, but an injection of youth and speed into the lineup should see them become more than just a one-trick pony! Whilst I would be far from recommending you to avoid Sydney players, I believe that this year there is some good value through their list, both in the form of first year players and in senior players looking to step up a notch in their careers. Also worth noting is Sydney’s regular success in getting the best out of new recruits. Therefore it is worth considering new Sydney tradees, McGlynn, Kennedy, Bradshaw, Seaby and Mumford.

Who’s Hot?:

Nick Malceski ($242,800): Since a breakout season in 2007 and a knee injury in 2008, Malceski has never looked like the same player – that is until this pre-season… He has been flying on the track and starred in all intraclub and NAB matches he has participated in.

Tadhg Kennelly ($204,700): After leaving Sydney to play in a Gaelic flag in 2009, Kennelly has returned, and fortunately with a sufficiently deflated price tag. His once weary body looks to have benefited from the time off and he is now looking super fit in the lead-up to the season.

Jesse White ($215,100) Has trained the house down through the pre-season and looks capable of taking a permanent spot in the Swans forward line.

Trent Dennis-Lane ($89,500): The mature-aged draftee has shone in both intraclub matches, kicking hauls of three and five goals against the Swans own measly defense-line. Should be capable of playing a number of games this year.

Lewis Jetta ($105,500): One of the younger players to take the NAB cup by storm, impressing with his fantastic pace along the wing. Has been encouraged by his coach and teammates to take the game on, and despite not winning stacks of the ball, it is what he can do with it that hurts the opposition. 

Who’s Not?:

Daniel Bradshaw: Had an arthroscopy to clear out his knee and is still recovering. The word is that he SHOULD be ready for round one, although I wouldn’t be taking any bets on that! Also, with no pre-season fitness base, he will take a while to find fitness in the real season.

Kristin Thornton: Had a limited pre-season after a knee cleanout.  

The Bargain:

Tadhg Kennelly ($204,700): Kennelly left the Swans at the end of 2008 to pursue a long-lived dream of competing in (and winning) an All-Ireland Gaelic football final. And fortunately for the Swans, his dream was fulfilled much sooner than expected with Kennelly’s club, Kerry, taking out the title in just his first year back home. As he tends to be able to do, Paul Roos convinced Kennelly to return back to Australia and to the Swans to compete for a second flag for the red and white. The great news for us dream teamers is that with his year out of the game, Kennelly’s price has dropped to one easily considered a ‘bargain!’ At his best, Kennelly is a strong rebounder from the Swans defense – in fact, he could almost be considered the best of them (and considering the Swans have four, this is a definite positive!). He was never a huge ball winner, but has the capability to get scores ranging from 60 – 100, and from someone at this price, you will very happily take that! Before Kennelly left for Ireland, his career with the Swans was somewhat in trouble anyway due to the amount of injuries he was getting, however coach Paul Roos has been very excited since Kennelly’s return – he has said that the year off from AFL, playing a sport such as gaelic football which is not very physical, has benefitted Kennelly’s body immensely – he is now as fit as he has ever been and has been tearing up the track in the pre-season. He really does tick all the boxes for a good bargain player – he is fully fit, a relatively consistent scorer, in his team’s best-22 and to top it off, he is in a good side. Due to all these factors, I believe that Kennelly will be a great pickup for the 2010 season, and whilst you may trade him mid-season, he is certain to make you quite a bit of money along the way! 

The Kid:

Jesse White ($215,100): White started his career as a backup ruckman to Darren Jolly, but found his niche when he moved to the forward line later in the season after the departure of Barry Hall. Fortunately for the Swans, he played the role with aplomb, becoming the most targeted player in the Swans forward-50 from round 16 onwards, and kicking 15 goals in this period (that’s just over 2 per game!). This year, with the quasi-retirement of Barry Hall and the recruitment of ruckmen Seaby and Mumford, the statement is that White is to be played as a permanent forward. He is a hard-leading player and very strong for his age (he is 22yo, 196cm and 105kg), so shares many attributes with the man who used to inhabit his position. The query above White’s head is where he will fit into the forward line which will also contain spearheads Bradshaw and Goodes. I believe that Bradshaw will line up at full-forward – there is no doubting this as that is where he has always played his football (he was never a CHF). Goodes has been talked up as the club’s CHF for 2010, but I don’t really see this being where he lines up. I expect he will play more as a high half-forward – more as a lead-up player who can crash the packs deep in the forward line as well as delivering the ball in from further upfield. He will still get stints in the middle, regardless of what Roos may be saying. White, I am certain will line up as the true CHF – he has played here through his two NAB cup games and looked very strong – he is also very fit and fast which will add to his ability to play this position. His scoring average is certain to go up from last year – he spent most of the season averaging poorly as a ruckman before scoring much better up forward for the last six games. Also, being young and adapting to a new position, he will begin to come along – I imagine he could average around 70 points for the year – think of Tippett last year; he will have the ability to score large, but due to the position he plays and his age and inexperience, you are sure to get some 40′s thrown in there too. I believe he is one of the better ruck prospects around the $200k mark and I am very tempted myself to stick him in as my second ruckman as I believe this will be his breakout year. 

The Premium:

Ryan O’Keefe ($425,400): After asking for a trade at the end of the 2008 season and then looking out of form for the first several rounds of 2009, it seemed like O’Keefe’s career was headed in a downward spiral. But fortunately, this was not so – in round 6 he was moved into the midfield, and it turn taking his game to a new level. He became the 2^nd highest disposal winner at the Swans and in the top 10 of the AFL from round 10 onwards. He also went through a mid-season purple patch in which he top scored with a whopping 173 DT points! Stats are one thing, and skills another – and O’Keefe has both! He finally proved himself to be an elite dream teamer in 2009, becoming to show consistency in his game, paralleled with his move to the midfield. Once again in 2010 he will be playing through the midfield so we should be able to see some similar numbers to last year. One of the impressive things about his game is his consistency – he rarely dropped below 80 after round six and scored over 100 nine times; he is the first player in a long time from Sydney’s list to be considered an elite dream teamer (and I’m sure it is an honor!). With McVeigh and Kennelly in the team, O’Keefe will not frequently be the target of taggers, and with his above-average height for a midfielder, it makes him even harder to match up on. I have little doubt that he won’t back up last year – and at his price he is very good value for a player of his quality. 

The Smokey:

Nick Malceski ($242,800): Malceski is an interesting case – he had a huge breakout season in 2007 where he averaged 87 DT points whilst running off the half-back line. Many expected 2008 would be another growing year for Malceski, however he ruptured his ACL in a February practice match, leading him to be the first player in the AFL to use a new form of knee reconstruction – it hurries up the recovery process due to the use of synthetic fibers which put in the knee instead of ligaments. He returned later in the year but was out of form; many blamed the knee and expected 2009 would be his year. 2009 rolled around and finished again, and in the process, Malceski had done anything but impress – he was dropped on several occasions due to form (which later has been blamed on a lack of drive), causing him to play only 12 game, averaging 55 DT points along the way – that is 32 points a game less than in 2007! This off season has been one of personal reflection for Malceski – he has come to terms with the limited life of an AFL footballer and has therefore put the foot to the pedal and pushed himself to be his best this pre-season. And by all reports, the extra effort has paid off – he is running a lot better than the past two years and is subsequently fitter; he has worked on his game a lot too which as a whole was reflected in his two NAB cup games where he scored 83 and 100 points. I read plenty about his work this pre-season and yet was still skeptical, so I was impressed with how he played in the two hit-outs (trust me, I watched him closely). I am quietly confident that this could finally be the year where we see him back at his best (or dare I say, better!?) and I am therefore locking him into my team. Yes, he is a big risk, but my gut feel is that it is one which will pay dividends!

The Team:

As the Saints showed the footy world last year, and so far in their pre-season this year, they are going to be one of the teams to beat in 2010. It is from teams such as St.Kilda that it is best to pick your premium players and key-positions. The catch is that players from St.Kilda will come at a premium due to their consistency last year - however, it should be expected that many Saints will maintain their 2009 averages this year, meaning that you should be happy to fork out premium prices for many of their players. The Saints game-plan is certainly one which complements dream team - not only is it a high-possession one, but it also involves a lot of tackling - the highest in the league! The other benefit of the Saints for DT purposes is their great run with injuries in recent seasons – the hiring of David Misson to elite performance manager a few years ago has proven wonders for the Saints soft-tissue issues. So load your team with premium Saints in 2010 – they will play consistently, justify the money spent on them and are all very likely to play 20 – 22 games this year!

Who’s Hot?:

Nick Riewoldt ($468,100): Coming off his best pre-season in five years, the captain is looking bigger, fitter and stronger than ever! Riewoldt was injured through a lot of 2009 yet still dominated games – consider what he will be like this year whilst fully fit and with a point to prove! You need to have him!

David Armitage ($321,100): This is Armo’s fourth year on the list, and now with a spot in the team vacated by Luke Ball, he has a huge opportunity to cement himself a position in the best 22. Had a super summer so my money is on him having a big year.

Jack Steven ($200,400): Taken as a bottom age player in 2007, Steven has shown the Saints plenty of promise, dominating in many VFL games last year and having a great debut game late in the season. Big things are expected this year from him and he is every chance to play a number of games and score highly.

Ben McEvoy ($194,100): Has added considerable bulk and muscle to his frame in the off-season. Lyon said that he has been the most impressive ‘kid’ this pre-season, running personal best times in all the time-trials, including leading the 3km! Should be able to force his way into the best-22 this year.

Adam Schneider ($348,000): A change of role in 2010 should see his scoring potential grow greatly. He will be playing through the midfield much more this year, and as he proved at the end of 2009, this position can be hugely lucrative for him as he averaged 100 points across a five-game period towards the end of the year.

Brendon Goddard ($455,700): Will be one of the first picked players in many sides, and rightly so! He is a star midfielder but can be picked up also as a defender! A massive positive! Also, he has shown already this year that he is a star DTer because he does it all – kicks, marks, goals and tackles! He is a complete DTer and will rarely give you a bad game! 

Who’s Not?:

Jesse W Smith: Has come to the Saints to get over his injury woes. So far he is looking much better, however he will not be ready until mid-season, putting him out of consideration for your starting team.

Lenny Hayes: Has had an interrupted pre-season due to a calf strain. Unfortunately, he corked the same calf against Freo, however he is expected to be ready for round one.

Raph Clarke: Pulled his hamstring in the intraclub game – could be ready round one, but I doubt he will get a game due to lack of match practice.

Robert Eddy: Been in a moon boot for most of the pre-season and would have to be very lucky to be selected early before proving himself at Sandy.

Andrew Lovett: Has been sacked by the club and will therefore play no part in their tilt at the flag. You don’t deserve the car if you’re silly enough to pick him! 

The Bargain:

David Armitage ($321,100): Often it can be hard to find the big improvers in the higher ranked teams as positions are often pretty well held by more experienced players. The only time that a younger player can ever really take a large step (as opposed to cameo roles which only score between 50 and 60 points) is typically due to a long term injury or retirement, or in St.Kilda’s case, the walking out of one of their senior players in the form of Luke Ball. The Saints have been so well-equipped with inside midfielder talent that they have not recruited once since Armitage in 2006, obviously expecting the likes of Lenny Hayes and Luke Ball to be at the club for many more years. However, when the unexpected happened and Ball walked out on the Saints at the end of last year, there was only really ever one man who would step up into that spot – and that was Armitage. His only real competition will come from the likes of McQualter, Jones and Geary – all of whom have either already secured a different position in the team (so why rob Peter to pay Paul?) or are not as good as Armo under the packs. Assuming Armo does step up this year and play 20 – 22 games, what are his chances of scoring well? Well… so far this pre-season, Armo has scored 99 points against Collingwood, 50 against Sydney (whilst being tagged by Brett Kirk – this WON’T happen in the real season) and 92 points against Freo on Saturday night. So he is proven this year he is up to the task, and last year was no difference – despite only three appearances, he averaged 92 DT points (including a whopping average of 9 tackles per game) and also winning himself 3 brownlow votes against Hawthorn! As a junior, he averaged 22 disposals through the TAC cup and was one of the higher ranked midfielders coming into the draft (and was subsequently taken at pick 9 by the Saints). Where he really shines in the Saints team is his ability to win his own ball, but also present a good option wide of the contest – the exact work rate lacked by Luke Ball that saw him dropped for several games last season. He also has an ability to go forward, averaging nearly a goal per game in his AFL career so far. To summarise, I believe that Armo is one of the better mid-priced players in the year’s dream team – not only should he play 22 games in a top-4 team, but he also has the runs on the board to show he is a great dream teamer. He should be one of the league’s biggest improvers in 2010, and if he is not, there will be plenty of questions asked, as are the expectation on his shoulders. 

The Kid:

Tom Lynch ($94,500): Lynch came to the Saints with the 13^th pick in the 2008 draft, lumped with plenty of Saints fans who saw him finally as the answer to their third forward worries. Unfortunately, 2009 saw no senior action for Lynch, a year in which the Saints made a very low number of changes to their team across the course of the year – almost the least on record. However, the one position that was far from set for the year was the position of a third tall in the forward line – the role was sporadically shared between James Gwilt, Sean Dempster and Robert Eddy. But still, none of these three became first choice, with the role being one that seemed to put each out of their comfort zone. The weekend’s game against Freo gave DT coaches a chance to look at Lynch for the first time in 2010 – and he was very impressive. Whilst not quite big enough for a key position, he certainly should be strong enough (and is definitely mobile enough) to hold down the third tall spot alongside Riewoldt and Kosi in 2010. It may be a bit much to ask of a second year player who has never played a game in the home and away season, but Lyon would surely want to develop Lynch as quick as possible as he is far and away the most suited player for this position in the Saints side. DT-wise, he is very good – he was ranked as the best forward (for DT) in his draft, mainly due to his high leads, which brought in plenty of marks, kicks and tackles. I’d want to see him named in round one first before selecting him. But Lyon has proven he doesn’t like to mess with structures, so if he plays round one, you can nearly be assured he will play plenty more games throughout the season. 

The Premium:

Nick Riewoldt ($468,100): For the second year in a row, Riewoldt was the highest scoring forward in dream team, and in 2010 it looks unlikely that there could be any better option! There is reason behind his high scoring – not only does he have one of the better marks in the competition, but his workrate is regarded as some of the best in the entire league, giving him the ability to venture far up ground for possessions, before gunning it back to the forward line to take a strong mark and kick a goal – simply put, he outruns and outclasses his opponents nearly every week. When choosing a premium priced player, it must be remembered why you are paying the big bucks for them – it is not necessarily to make money out of them, but to consistently get large scores, and never to be traded out barring injury. However, every now and then a premium comes along that has the potential to not only reap those large scores consistently, but also with a strong likelihood to improve on his previous years score. This appears to be the case for Riewoldt in 2010 – for the past number years he has struggled into the season (and often been inconsistent for the first several rounds) due to a lack of pre-season, but this year he has completed his first pre-season in five years, meaning he should step straight into the season in full flight – so far in the NAB cup he has shown he is in great form, scoring 85 and 86 points, both from very limited time on ground. Simply put, Riewoldt should be one of your first picked players – especially in 2010 as he looks even more like a premium than in years gone by. No longer can a coach have the usual excuse, “I’ll pick him in round five when he’s $100k cheaper,” as this year he is likely to come out swinging! 

The Smokey:

Adam Schneider ($348,000): Schneider has played as a forward for the majority of his career – this was up until late last year when Lyon gave him a turn through the midfield for the last half-dozen games of the season. As it seems through watching the NAB cup, it does not look like his time in the middle from last year (where he averaged 100 points across five games) will be a one-off. This NAB series we have seen him line up at the centre square for all three games, only moving forward occasionally (and therefore boosting his scoring power with a couple of goals) – he has clocked up scores of 104, 60 and 79 in his three games so far, and has looked at home in the midfield through each. He is still speculative due to the fact that St.Kilda still don’t seem 100% settled on each player’s positions for 2010, with Ross Lyon still tinkering with players in different roles. I do believe however, that Schneider will stay in the midfield for the majority of 2010 – with DalSanto and Goddard set to spend more time in the forward line, the logical conclusion is that Schneids will be the man who moves up the field to allow this. I believe that for the money you pay for him there should be a reasonable increase, but don’t expect much more than $50k – he may just prove to be more of a mid-priced keeper.

The Team:

The rule of thumb for dream team tends to be that you try and pick as many of your high priced players from winning sides as possible. And again this year, it seems to be the case. However, just as important to your side as the premiums is the rookie priced players – these are the players that are going to provide you with the cash to further upgrade all of your injured or underperforming premiums and mid-priced improvers. And the only places to find good quality rookies, likely to be given every opportunity at senior level is in the bottom few sides. This year, unless if we are greatly surprised, Richmond will again be one of those teams – their players will often be inconsistent and the side may lose occasionally by 100 points, but the plan for the coaches will always stay the same – play the kids! This kind of theory is perfect for dream teamers looking to chock full our benches with underpriced kids – and Richmond have a few gems! And the best part is, if you cannot find a player who fits the bill for your bench, it is always worth looking at rookies from these bottom teams as their younger players are likely to be given much more of a chance than those belonging to St.Kilda or Geelong.

Who’s Hot?:

Brett Deledio ($422,200): Really pushed himself over the pre-season after last season coming to the much publicised realisation that he was simply coasting and nowhere near the quality of player he could be. Should be set for a big year!

Dustin Martin ($149,500): The first year player has flown through his first AFL pre-season. Often told by coaches to stop over-doing things, such is his willingness to succeed – looks to have a work rate of the great Robert Harvey and if he is even half the player, he will be a super dream teamer!

Jack Riewoldt ($327,400): Had another solid pre-season and at his age, we should be able to expect some consistency from Riewoldt. Now with Polak in the forward line, he will no longer get the opposition’s key defender making it more likely that he will fire! 

Who’s Not?:

Trent Cotchin: Whilst he is currently competing in the NAB cup games, his lead up to the season was far from complete; he spent most of his time on a modified program so as to not re-injure himself. So far he is looking good, but skepticism reigns!

Ben Cousins: Had both hand and shoulder surgery in the off-season, meaning his aging body is surely ready to start slowing down this year.

Nathan Foley: In doubt for round one with repeated issues with his ankles. He has had off-season surgery but is still not 100% – I wouldn’t recommend him for this reason.

The Bargain:

Trent Cotchin ($296,200): Only half a paragraph ago I was criticizing Cotchin for coming into this season underdone, however, he is not so much underdone due to injuries, but rather a fear of injuries. Now as strange as that sounds, there was reason behind this madness – For Cotchin’s first two seasons at the Tigers, he suffered from several long-time injuries such as an Achilles issue and a hip complain, together ruining half of his debut season and most of his second year. Now with this much injury history in such a short space of time, any DT coach would need to be presented with a very persuasive case to so much as consider placing him in their team. Firstly I should say, I’m not here to convince you to get Cotchin or not get him, but rather to present you with the facts and let you make your minds up for yourselves. When selecting a player for your team, it is always worth looking at players priced in the same price-bracket whom you could be otherwise choosing – and if we look at Cotchin’s neighbors, we see two very popular DT names – Armitage and Masten – both players promising a meteoric rise in 2010 and whom many DT coaches are locking into their teams. So why would you choose an injury prone player from a team likely to finish with the wooden spoon over two players with little injury history and just about as much upside? Well… As a junior, Cotchin was an elite inside and outside midfielder – he not only won nearly 50% of his disposals from a contest, but delivered the ball with precision into the forward line (he averaged 8 inside 50s a game!). He averaged 28 disposals through the 2007 TAC Cup and was one of the best players throughout, subsequently causing Richmond to take him with their second pick in the draft. Whilst junior stats don’t always tell the complete story, Cotchin played some fantastic football in his debut season, averaging 17 disposals (great for a first year player). From there he has shown glimpses of his immense talent, again averaging 17 disposals in his injury interrupted 2009 season, using his boot as many times as his hand to deliver the ball – a great stat from a DT perspective. Whilst none of these numbers are really going to blow you away, Cotchin’s pure class and promise he has shown in his limited games has many coaches still considering him despite his bleak injury history. Honestly, I believe he has more upside (i.e. scoring potential) than Masten and Armitage, however, he must be fit to reach his peak. So far this pre-season, his monitored program is proving dividends with him looking ready to line up in round one for the first time in his short career. Also worth noting is that he scored 62 points against the Cats on the weekend, however played very limited game time and from all reports played with class and poise which suggested that 2010 may finally be his year. 

The Kid:

Dustin Martin ($149,500): I think there would be little chance that Martin is not in every single Dream Team in 2010 – those that do not have him round one will waste a trade getting him in for round two. Rarely do Dream Teamers get such a treat as we have gotten in Martin – he is a highly skilled, ball winning, solid bodied first round draft pick! At 186cm and 88kg, he has a body ready to step straight into the seniors and dominate. And is isn’t puppy fat he is carrying – look at any photo of the kid and he is ripped enough to think he’s been at this caper for years! Through his TAC Cup, Martin averaged 25 disposals, 3 tackles and nearly one goal – he is a speedy centreman, capable of both winning his own ball (average contested possessions: 38%) and also delivering it perfectly to his forwards. As for his pre-season, it has been flawless – he has been one of the most impressive and professional Tigers on the track in the pre-season and there is no chance he will be on the sidelines for round one. He is a certain starter for the Tigers in round one and should be at worst your 6^th midfielder – He is the most essential first year player since Marc Murphy! 

The Premium:

Brett Deledio ($422,200): After a breakout year in 2008, Deledio’s first half to 2009 was less than spectacular. But when caretaker coach Jade Rawlings threatened to drop him to the VFL midway through the year, it seemed to be the spark his year needed. Now, he labels that moment as a turning point in his career – when he realised the hard yards needed to be a consistent AFL midfielder. Hopefully this year we can see more of the same as Deledio at his best can easily be classified as elite. So far this pre-season his game has looked good, averaging 90 points across the two NAB games he has played. Deledio in 2009 was the highest disposal winning Tiger, as well as the one to play the most minutes for the year – quite an achievement for a midfielder! Both these stats bode well for him as DTer as it suggests both his teammates and coach want him on the field and with the ball in his hand. And whilst he wasn’t great at breaking some of the harder tags, he did prove by the end of the year that he was capable of escaping a taggers clutch through hard work, dispelling many fears of him being taken out of matches due to being the Tigers key midfielder. Now due to not being eligible as a forward his appeal does go down, but at a bit over $400k he does present the option of a consistent ball-winner who has the capacity to score some very large numbers. Whilst he may not be the first choice player in his price bracket, my gut feel is he could at least maintain his 2009 average of 96 points. 

The Smokey:

Daniel Connors ($156,000): If there was ever a list made of some of the biggest DT teases, Connors would certainly be up there. Since being drafted at pick 58 in the 2006 draft, Connors has played a total of just 10 games – poor for an uninjured player in a side such as Richmond’s, crying out for talent. Typically through his career, he has been played on a half-forward flank, never scoring particularly high DT scores, despite coming to the club in 2006 quite highly rated. In 2009, Connors presents himself as a great smokey pick due to his new role as a sweeper off the half-back line. As Raines showed in 2009, this role in Richmond is not particularly lucrative, but at a starting price as low as Connors’, there is plenty of room for improvement. So far in the NAB cup we have seen him play twice, and both times in this new role, suggesting it will be permanent, rather than an experiment – in week one he scored an impressive 98 points followed by a reasonable 64 against the Cats. The only drawback to Connors this year is that despite regularly being labeled as a forward/midfielder in previous seasons, Virtual Sports have named him purely as a midfielder. I believe he has the potential to make plenty of money for your side and score well in the meantime, however structurally he may prove an inconvenience in your side. But have a play with your team structure, and if you can fit him in, he could prove an inspired choice as he should gain in value by over $150,000.

The Team:

Well I’m glad that I didn’t pre-write these articles as so far this pre-season we have seen a totally different Port Adelaide side to the one that finished the 2009 season so poorly. So far they have pumped local rivals Adelaide and done the same damage to top-8 hopefuls, West Coast at Subiaco. Firstly, it was great to see Port win the games so convincingly, and with so many younger players in the squad! But even more importantly, they backed it up in Western Australia -  something they really struggled to do in 2009. I am especially excited about some of Port’s youngsters this year - some of them are in great form, but just as importantly, they look good enough to push for senior selection. Hopefully this can be a big year for Port Adelaide as they are one of the more exciting AFL teams when in full flight. At this stage, I would hardly hesitate recommending you to put a few Port players in your squad - lets just hope they don’t fail us come round one!

Who’s Hot?:

Travis Boak ($396,900): Had a great pre-season and looks every chance to step up and lead the Power’s young midfield.

Steven Salopek ($373,200): After a less than impressive 2009 riddled by injury and form issues, Sal pushed very hard over the off-season and has come back looking better than ever. So far in the NAB cup he has stood out with his great HB/midfield role and penetrating kicking.

Mitch Banner ($94,500): Was an elite ball winner as a junior and after a strong pre-season it looks like he may be ready to replicate those attributes in the AFL.

Robbie Gray ($321,200): Has played his career as a medium forward but has often showed glimpses of star talent, just craving to be moved to the midfield. Fortunately, he worked really hard in the off-season and in row running personal bests and looking very fit. There is a strong chance we will see him in the midfield this year.

Cameron Hitchcock ($97,800): A first round rookie pick who looks a classic excitement machine, tearing up one and a half NAB cup games, showing great work rate and natural footballing ability in the forward line.  

Who’s Not?:

David Rodan: Did his ACL in a training drill and required a knee reconstruction. Due to using the ‘Malceski Method’ to repair his knee, he could be back in action only a month into the season. Still avoid picking him though.

Hamish Hartlett: After a great start to his pre-season, he has been cut down by another hamstring injury. Should be ready for round one, but with Port’s strong team and competition for spots he may find himself in the SANFL to regain touch.

Daniel Motlop: Had several injury concerns over the pre-season and despite playing the first NAB cup he still doesn’t look 100% fit – in fact, his poor showing in that game proved you don’t want him in your team anyway.

The Kid:

Mitch Banner ($94,500): Banner has been on most keen dream teamers lists for a while now – in fact, before he was even drafted people were locking them into their dream teams. Why? Because the kid knows how to get the ball! This is the point in the article where I remind you about the concept of dream team – we are not here to pick the flashiest player, the one with the best disposal, nor even the ones who will put their heads over the ball (and that is not to say Banner doesn’t tick any of these categories), but the ones who just get the ball again and again and again. Well… fair enough to say, Mitch Banner is one of these guys – the year before he was drafted he averaged a whopping 29 disposals through the TAC cup – these are Dane Swan style numbers kids! This is now the point where you turn around to me and give the example, “Bradd Dalziell could rack them up, but Vossy wouldn’t select him cos he’s actually pretty poor at football! Will the same happen to Banner?” Well, no, is the simple answer. Banner came to the club in 2008 known for being on the bad side of average for ball disposal, but it seems that he has worked really hard on this facet of his game for the past 12 months, impressing me (and I’m sure Chocco would be pretty stoked too) with both his ball winning abilities (both inside and outside) as well as his neat disposal. Whilst he ain’t a Brendon Goddard or David Mundy, he is definitely good enough to hit a target enough times to keep his spot in the team. For me, he is almost a must-have. Put it this way – if he is named to play round one, GET HIM!

The Premium:

Travis Boak ($396,900): Every year since he was drafted, Boak has taken his game to another level, as looks to be the case again in 2010. If we were making a list of A-grade players likely to take the step to elite category this year (ala Montagna), Boak would likely head the list. He showed us what he can do in his last few games for the season, averaging 28 disposals from rounds 18 – 22 and in doing so, marking himself as Port’s premium midfield option. The only concern is how he will handle the likely tag, which he will attract in 2010 – previously, players such as Shaun Burgoyne and Danyle Pearce have attracted the harassment, but as teams cotton on to Boak’s ability the attention will surely come! I can tell you that I am not the only one at Footy Tragic who’s excited by Boak – we were all singing his praises towards the end of last year, and with a super pre-season under his belt we are all pretty keen to get him into our teams! Whilst not a lock just yet, his clear room for improvement and undoubted ability make him a hard one to go past at what is quite a reasonable price! 

The Smokey:

Justin Westhoff ($283,600): The talk over the off-season at Port was often about a couple of different things; firstly, who will support Dean Brogan in the ruck – a two man race between Lobbe and Trengrove. Secondly, many were concerned about the form (or lack thereof) of the much-maligned forward, Justin Westhoff. Westhoff was one of the best young players in 2007 as Port made it to the Grand Final, however has failed to come on since due to his heightened amount of attention from opposition defenses. Amazingly, the solution to both of Port’s dilemmas seems to be the one answer; playing Westhoff in the ruck. Whilst not the most amazing tap ruckman (he was thrashed in the centre square by A-grade combo Cox and Naitanui), he works really hard across the ground and still has the talent to be rested up forward when not rucking – a fantastic combination! He was much better than next-choice ruckman, Lobbe, who was beaten both in the ruck and around the ground, suggesting that Westhoff really has the position in the bag if he continues to work hard. As we saw last year with Paddy Ryder, these versatile players can be fantastic DT players, especially when coming at the right price. Currently, Westhoff sits a bit below the $300k mark, but has the potential to do much more. Until he is officially given the role he is still speculative, but if  he does line up in the centre square in round one, you could be doing much worse than to be having him in your team.

The Smokey #2 (Instead of Bargain):

Robbie Gray ($321,200): I’ve gone for a second smokey this week due to Port having no clear bargain on their list, rather just a bunch of well priced kids… Plus, I couldn’t decide between Westhoffe and Gray. Now, I must start by saying I have always had a love for how Robbie Gray goes about his footy – every year since his debut I have spent time with him in my trial team before realizing he is just going to play forward again and subsequently trading him out. But this year is different – this year Chocco had hinted very strongly that he may finally line up in the middle! He even played there in the intra-club and totally chopped! The only question surrounding Gray is HOW much potential does he really have – we have never seen him play midfield for a full game to see what sort of numbers he is capable of, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged 85 – 90 points a game (similar to Higgins of 2009). He can play both inside and outside and is very creative with the footy and is therefore regularly trusted with it in hand. This shouldn’t be taken out of context, but his work in the forward line has always reminded me of Ablett when he played there for the first few years of his career. Unfortunately, we haven’t see him line up yet this NAB cup, so once again everything is extremely speculative. But please, for your own sake, keep an eye on the kid – I am so confident this will be his breakout season it’s just ridiculous!

The Team:

It was great to get to watch North Melbourne go about their business on the weekend before giving an insight on them here as I was very surprised at how well tuned Brad Scott has them. I have never particularly rated North (at least in the past few years), nor their squad of kids, until watching everything just click on the weekend – Brad Scott has them flicking the ball around in a high-disposal, high intensity game plan which will not only reap rewards for the football club, but also for us Dream Teamers who have a few of the younger Roos in our team. Whilst from the outside, 2010 looks like it should be a rebuilding year for North, captain Brent Harvey has made very clear that they are still aiming for top-8. Whilst up until a week ago I would have sarcastically uttered “good luck with that,” their game on the weekend has given me some faith it all may be possible – and whilst I’m not one to get all gushy about a NAB cup win, I was mainly impressed with their ball skills – one trait which can’t be faked in the pre-season. Although they aren’t rebuilding, according the Harvey, Brad Scott will play many of the kids this season, giving them a taste of the AFL experience. Therefore, don’t be afraid to sample the North youth – they especially have a few beauties between $200k and $300k – as they should all get plenty of experience in 2010, and by the looks of it, Brad Scott’s high possession game plan should see them score you a few points too!

Who’s Hot?:

Sam Wright ($198,800): After only playing a couple of games in 2009, Wright has really impressed the new coach and was trialed in several roles on Sunday night, looking especially good through the midfield.

Ben Warren ($234,800): Has bulked up majorly in the off season, indicating that 2010 could be the twenty-year-olds year. He looked fantastic against the Cats in the first NAB game, kicking 3 goals on Andrew Mackie.

Jack Ziebell ($285,600): Trained purely through the midfield and has put on some bulk to help compete with the bigger bodies. He looked like a star in the making in 2009 and I doubt it will take him very long to show us what he is really made of.

Robbie Tarrant ($94,500): North’s first selection in the 2007 draft has finally gotten his body fit after a few frustrating years riddled with injuries. He has trained as a defender, which is disappointing from a DT perspective as it will definitely limit his output. Judging by his game against Geelong, his role will be purely negating. 

Who’s Not?:

Ben Cunnington: Had a hot spot in his foot, forcing him to wear a moon boot for the month of January. It was discovered early, so there is a chance he could still play round one.

Daniel Wells: Is on the slow road back from OP surgery. They won’t rush him as OP can flare back up very easily. He will be very underdone for the start of the season.

Andrew Swallow: Missed the first half of the pre-season with groin problems, however has been in training since mid-January and played against the Cats. Should be fine for round one, albeit a bit underdone.

The Bargain:

Jack Ziebell ($285,600): It’s hard to classify a bargain in the North Melbourne lineup, so instead I have picked the player I imagine will have the biggest dollar increase in the 2010 season – Ziebell. Ziebell proved to us in 2009 that he is no DT slouch, averaging a reasonable 65 points in his debut season. Unfortunately, his year was cut short by a broken leg in round 12, forcing him to sit out the remainder of the season. There are several things which make Ziebell a potential DT star – firstly, his love for kicking the ball (aka. 3 points) is fantastic, using his boot more than two times for every time he handballed it – the reason? – he has a great football brain and a long, accurate kick, able to pinpoint teammates from 50 meters away with great precision. Ziebell was also a good ball winner in juniors, averaging 18 disposals and 7 marks per game – he also kicked just under a goal a game, showing he is damaging up forward too. There is no chance that Brad Scott will not play him for 22 rounds if possible and I expect his average to jump significantly from 65 to 85 whilst running through the midfield. Get on early whilst his price is still low! 

The Kid:

Ben Cunnington ($141,500): If Dream Team was played in the TAC cup, Ben Cunnington would be Dane Swan. As an example, he averaged 98 DT points across his 13 games – he averaged 22.4 possessions, 5 tackles, 6 marks and nearly 2 goals per game. He is an inside midfielder who relishes a contest, winning 44% of his disposals from under a pack. Despite a minor injury setback this preseason, the labeled ‘very professional footballer’ did everything required of him to get back on the track – he is now training with the main group and I hope we will get a chance to see him this NAB cup before round one. He will certainly be in Brad Scott’s plans for his 2010 midfield, so I see him getting plenty of opportunities with a reasonable game time. And judging my the Roos first game on the weekend, they will be a very quality outfit this year, hopefully winning quite a number of games – this certainly bodes well for scoring potential as players in winning teams always score better. We need to see him play before he is a lock for round one, but I would be betting that Cunnington will make quite an impression in 2010 and is more than worth considering for your opening squad. 

The Premium:

Liam Anthony ($422,700): It seems somewhat surprising to be putting up a name of a player to have only played 10 career matches as my premium, however he certainly deserves the tag. Anthony burst onto the scene in 2009 (much later than many would have hoped, mind you!) as a mature aged recruit, averaging 96 DT points in his 10 games. He is predominantly used as an outside midfielder, however does win about a quarter of his possessions from a contest. In his 10 games for North last year, Anthony was the highest disposal winning Roo, as well as having the highest disposals per minute ratio at the club – two great DT indicators! In short, Anthony proved in 2009 that he is a DT freak. However, the worry often is after a debut season like this, how will it be backed up? And can I really spend over $400,000 on a second year player? Well, after one pre-season game this year, Anthony has worked hard to squash any fears that we in DT land may have had – although hurting his ribs in the second quarter, Anthony played out the game, racking up 38 disposals and 5 tackles in a clearly best-on-ground display. Many more of these games may see his $422K price tag put him in the bargain category! At the end of the day, it won’t be those who pick Gary Ablett from round one that win dream team 2010 – it’ll be those who take risks and gambles and find themselves the next Gary Ablett. Now I’m not saying Anthony is the next Gary Ablett, but I know I wouldn’t want him averaging 110 points and not be in my team… 

The Smokey:

Lindsay Thomas ($268,000): Thomas in now approaching his fourth AFL season, a career to date which has seen him play purely as a small crumbing forward. However, a potential role change looms for Thomas as he has had his best pre-season to date – he is running personal best times in all the trials and has gotten his skin folds down very low. Due to his hard work, there is a strong chance he will be moved to the midfield in 2010 – a position which he was initially drafted to play in 2006, until a shortage of small forwards saw him lining up in the Kangaroos forward line instead of on the centre square. The exciting thing about this move is the fact that Thomas was such a good ball winner as a junior, averaging 28.5 disposals in the SANFL with a kick to handball ratio of 2:1. If he is able to convert his junior stats to an AFL midfield, he could certainly be a bargain pick for 2010. Unfortunately, he did not play the game against Geelong and therefore this move is still speculative, and hence making him a smokey rather than a bargain. But keep a very close watch – if he so much as touches that centre square, pounce immediately!

The Team:

Melbourne finished the 2009 season struggling to stop from winning games and only just managed to scrape through with four wins to allow them the first two picks in the draft. With the new talent now secured, Melbourne will be pushing as hard as they can in 2010 and anything less than eight wins would likely be considered a failure. The trick will be developing the youth as quickly as possible – many will start very raw, but coach Dean Bailey must persist with this policy as have plenty of coaches before him. Due to this, Melbourne is a playing ground for many DT coaches with their plethora of young talent close to guaranteed to get a game this year. The only issue is the secrecy behind Dean Bailey – he refuses to give anything away, such as when kids will debut and how many games he expects them to play. As DT coaches, we want round one to be a lock and for him to spend all season spruiking a ‘youth polity.’ Unfortunately though, Bailey enjoys resting his younger players every few weeks – not a bad idea by development standards, but the game we are talking about is DT, one where we want 22 games from a player regardless if it is good for their health or not! But still, fill your interchange with cheap Melbourne players – hopefully they will be this year’s Fremantle!

Who’s Hot?:

Colin Sylvia ($418,700): Looks a strong chance to build on a very strong 2009 season. He has trained very well and showed he is in good touch with a  good performance in Sunday’s NAB cup game.

Jack Grimes ($392,300): Although 2009 was riddled with injury for Grimes, he showed what he is capable of. Has trained as a midfielder all pre-season and is currently injury free.

Jack Trengove ($153,500): Has fitted into the pace of training with ease. Although he had a mediocre showing on the weekend, I expect he will catch up to the pace of AFL over the next few weeks, ready for round one.

Who’s Not?:

Sam Blease: Is still recovering from the broken leg he suffered mid-2009. I would be surprised if he played many games this year.

Luke Tapscott: Has broken down with a hip injury he sustained at training. Will miss four months of football.

Jack Watts: Has bulked up a fair amount, but recently had an injury set back which will delay his start to the season.

Colin Garland: Further injury setbacks will see him miss the first chunk of the season.

The Bargain:

Jamie Strauss ($94,500): James Strauss was selected by Melbourne with pick 19 in the 2008 National Draft. Strauss was recruited from the Oakleigh Chargers and is listed as 185cms, 82kgs. Strauss represented Vic Metro in the 2008 Under 18 National Championships, where he averaged 14 possessions over his 5 games in the carnival. Strauss is a very athletic, fast (4^th overall in the 2008 Draft Camp for the 30 metre repeat sprints) and hard running midfielder, with elite endurance. Strauss also reads the play very well and is an excellent kick of the football on both sides of his body. Unfortunately for Melbourne, Strauss was cruelled by a series of ankle and leg injuries which saw him play no senior football in 2009 – although, this is a great thing for fantasy coaches as he will start the year at bottom price. He is a hard-bodied midfielder, which should see him given more opportunities than some of his other teammates, especially as he has had a full pre-season. He is also very versatile, as shown on Sunday night when he was thrown between the midfield and defense. Now that he has the fitness and there are spots in the team for him, I am confident that Strauss would be a great value pick in your 2010 team. He is both great value as well as being a more uncommon selection – a huge DT positive!

The Kid:

Jack Trengove ($153,500): I would be very surprised if you have not already put Trengove in your 2010 squad – he will likely be the most popular selection for most of the year. And there is very good reason behind this – he came to Melbourne in last year’s draft as the number 2 pick overall. He is a strong-bodied, ball winning midfielder, already with experience at playing against men. We got to see our first glimpse at the kid on Sunday night against Fremantle – unfortunately, he played a rather average game, suggesting that he may take a bit of time to get used to the pace of AFL. My first thoughts after the game were that he was out of my team, but on further thought I am going to keep him, but with much more of an eye on his next few games. I believe he has both the tools and potential to make a mark in 2010, but I want to at least see some signs in the pre-season before I confirm him as a lock. There is every chance that come round 1 he will be flying – but I want to be 100% sure before handing him a Guernsey for my team – especially with plenty of other top-notch kids fighting for a place!

The Premium:

Colin Sylvia ($418,700): It was a long time coming, but Colin Sylvia finally had his break out year in 2009, averaging 95 points whilst playing through the midfield and with stints up forward. Although coming into the 2010 season with a high average and in a bottom-eight team, I believe there is still huge potential in Sylvia and I reckon he will get even better and more consistent. The first concern about Sylvia is his discipline – twice in 2009 he was suspended by Melbourne for breaches of their rules, however I believe with a renewed sense of belief in what he can achieve in 2010, Sylvia will come out swinging in 2010, whilst also keeping his distracting antics at bay. Sylvia is a great Dream Teamer in that he is capable of huge games – some players who average 100 will never score more than 110 – he scored over 120 on four occasions, top scoring in round nine with 159 points. It is also worth noting that Sylvia’s great form did not actually kick in until about round 8 (he averaged 73 until then and 107 from then until the end of the season), meaning that his early average form has pulled his 2010 starting price down well below what is deserved for his talent. He is a lock for me in 2010 – he scores huge numbers, won’t regularly get a tag with Davey in the team and is also a relatively unique pick. Highly consider him for your team too!

The Smokey:

Joel Macdonald ($299,800): Macdonald was the biggest surprise delisting at the end of 2009 and subsequently was picked up by Melbourne with the first pick in the pre-season draft. Macdonald had his breakout season in 2008 with his run from half-back alongside the ever-injured Drummond, but in 2009 was relegated to a much more negating role in the backline as Ash McGrath was preferred ahead of him in the rebounding role. To compare his seasons, in 2008 his average was 75 and in 2009, 68. Whilst these numbers aren’t poles apart, I always thought he had a lot of improvement to come from his 2008 season, and I believe we will begin to see this in 2010. As was evident in the hit-out against Freo, Macdonald is getting trusted with more responsibility, often the go-to man off half-back. He was asked to defend Mayne, the third tall-target in the Freo forward line, breaking away from him at every opportunity. I think the worst case scenario with Macdonald is that there is no improvement, just flatline. However, I do believe there is potential in his new surrounds to add at least another 10 points to his 2009 average.

Dear Footy Tragics,

You may notice that this team summary is slightly different to previous team summaries. That’s because Toby has asked me to complete the Hawthorn team summary. I’m a passionate Hawks fan and I watch every Melbourne game live. Basically, I know the Hawks inside and out. Toby will be back next week, where he looks at Melbourne and North Melbourne – Tuney.

The Team:

The 2010 season can’t come quick enough for Hawthorn as they look to bounce back after a very disappointing 2009. With many of the Hawks big stars now fully fit after an early end to 2009 and the completion of full pre seasons, they are definitely looking to reclaim a top four spot this year.

In terms of dreamteam, I can’t see too many kids debuting for the Hawks this year with the arrivals of Shaun Burgoyne from Port Adelaide and Josh Gibson from North Melbourne. Competition for spots in the Hawthorn side will be hotly contested, so I’ve looked mainly at established players in this team summary, rather than at kids I don’t think will play in 2010.

Who’s Hot:

Jordan Lewis ($411,600): Lewis had a solid season in 2009, averaging 94 points per game after missing the first three matches of the season due to shoulder surgery in the off season. Despite missing a large chunk of the pre season, Lewis came into the side and performed admirably in trying circumstances for the Hawks.

Fast forward to February 2010 and Lewis has completed a full pre season and he is training the house down. Lewis has lost 7kgs in the pre season and moved very smoothly across the turf against Richmond on Saturday night. There is only one way to lose 7kgs in five months as an AFL footballer, and that is with serious gut running over summer. If Lewis can average 94 points per game with a limited fitness base, imagine what he could average with a full pre season under his belt. Lewis is a ball magnet with very strong hands and he loves to tackle. He sounds like the perfect dreamteam player to me.

Luke Hodge ($366,800): As an avid Hawks fan, it was painful for me watching Luke Hodge in 2009. Hodge ended the 2008 season as arguably the best player in the competition, with a Norm Smith medal and Premiership medal around his neck. Unfortunately, Hodge was a shadow of his former self for much of 2009 as he battled through a combination of shoulder and groin problems.

Hodge has completed a full pre season and now looks a picture of fitness after losing 5kgs over the summer. Hodge tore Richmond to ribbons on Saturday night as he cut a swathe through the midfield time after time before delivering passes laces out to Franklin and Roughead. We all know how good Hodge is and now that he is 100% fit, I expect him to dominate the competition again in 2010.

Buddy Franklin (354,900): After watching just 12 minutes of the Hawthorn vs Richmond game on Saturday night, I’d seen enough to be convinced Buddy will kick another 100 goals in 2010. The tape on Franklin’s left hand and thumb is gone, the powerful overhead marking is back and the lightning speed is also back. What’s more, Franklin’s kicking for goal was impeccable. When Hawthorn next meet Richmond in Round 8 at the MCG, Alex Rance should offer to carry Franklin’s bag to the game, rather than stand next to him in the goal square. Rance had nowhere to hide on Saturday night and looked like a deer in the headlights every time the ball came into Hawthorn’s attacking 50.

The great man is now 100% fit after minor foot surgery pre Christmas, so it’s time to get onboard and enjoy the ride. Keep in mind that Buddy will miss Round 1 through suspension.

Who’s Not:

Cyril Rioli ($334,900): Rioli has been put on ice over the last week due to groin soreness. The Hawks are hoping the injury is only minor, but missing a block of training in February is far from an ideal preparation. Rioli is still aiming to be fit for Round 1, but the Hawks will be taking a no risk policy with such a prized asset.

Shaun Burgoyne ($314,600): Burgoyne has only just joined the main training group after knee surgery in 2009. Burgoyne is also aiming to play Round 1, but he won’t have a solid fitness base behind him if he gets up for the season opener.

Clinton Young ($231,300): Young is still a long way off returning to the field due to an ongoing hip complaint. The hard running and penetrating kicking of Young was severely missed by the Hawks in 2009 and I wish him a speedy recovery.

The Bargain:

Rick Ladson ($185,100): Ladson was another player sorely missed by the Hawks in 2009. Ladson is the ultimate professional and he is very highly rated by the Hawthorn coaching staff. Ladson is one of the best kicks in the AFL and he gets the job done on a weekly basis with a minimum of fuss. While Ladson won’t average 90 plus points per game, he will average 70 – 75 points per game and play all 22 home and away matches if he remains injury free.

The Kid:

Ryan Schoenmakers ($181,800): It’s no surprise Port Adelaide tried so hard to lure Schoenmakers back to the city of churches over the off season, because he’s a precocious talent. It’s also no surprise that the Hawks told Port Adelaide to keep their grubby hands off him.

Schoenmakers really is a recruiting manager’s dream: 193cms, 86kgs, elite runner over short and long distance, big vertical leap, strong mark and effective kick on both sides of his body. What’s more, Schoenmakers looks like a natural footballer out on the field and like many quality players, always seems to have plenty of time.

In terms of dreamteam numbers in 2010, I’d expect Schoenmakers to average 50 – 55 points per game. I also expect him to play 22 home and away matches if he remains injury free, because he is currently in Hawthorn’s best 22 and very much in their long term plans.

The Premium:

Sam Mitchell ($449,200): Mitchell is a ball magnet and has been racking up 30 plus possessions on a regular basis for many years now. We’ve all seen Mitchell play many times, so we know what he will do if you select him in your side.

The Smokey:

Xavier Ellis ($305,600): Ellis is yet another Hawthorn player who was severely hampered by injury (hip, foot and ankle) in 2009. I’m pleased to say that Ellis has also done a full pre season and looked very impressive against Richmond on Saturday night. When watching Ellis last Saturday night, I wasn’t looking for him to rack up 40 possessions, I just wanted to make sure he was back to full fitness. I’ve seen enough in his 47 AFL games to know that he can seriously play our great game.

In conclusion, Ellis is fit, he’s underpriced and he’s in my side.

Good luck!