Footy Tragic

Well… what a week! It has been a while since a round of football has brought so many upsets! First up, the Pies beat Brissie at the Gabba, before Saturday saw Sydney sink the Blues and Port knock out the reigning premiers, making them 1-3. That night, however, the two ladder leaders carried on their winning ways, showing their dominance. Sunday, North defeated Essendon, and Melbourne had Richmond supporters demanding for the head of coach Terry Wallace. The weekend was ended with probably the biggest upset of the round, with the tenacious Eagles ending the Dog’s winning streak!

Friday:

Collingwood vs Brisbane:

First up was Collingwood’s win up at the Gabba – although leading for the first half of the game, a Medhurst inspired Collingwood got on their horse and pushed hard for their win. The match saw a fantastic debut from father-son draftee Jaxson Barham – he tackled hard and presented good skills. I liked the look of him, and playing for Collingwood aint a bad thing – they tend to enjoy playing the kids! Be mindful however, Maxwell and Heath Shaw are yet to return from suspension, so his spot could be in jeopardy. Shannon Cox showed his predicted ball-winning abilities off half-back on his way to his first ton of the season – although, this may change somewhat on Heath’s return. Brissie’s big worry is how their ruck stops will be tested over the next month or so as Charman went down with an injury – this could bode well for Mitch Clark – their last remaining ruckman up to AFL level! And unfortunately for J Brown fans, he did not kick a bag as predicted this week by Voss – although it may not be far away!

Get on: Tarkyn Lockyer – often played behind the ball, taking many uncontested marks, as well as kicking some goals. He has the ability to do this consistently, and is still going up in price.

Get off: Anthony Rocca – I had to go with the obvious one here – he is this year’s Gehrig – the game doesn’t suit him anymore, and he’s very inconsistent.

Injury: Both Adcock and Charman went down with ankle injuries. Apparently the Charman one is the more serious of the two.

Saturday:

Sydney vs Carlton:

As a dream-teamer, this game made me angry, angry, ANGRY!! So few of the Carlton stars really shone, and nor did the kids. Admittedly it was against Sydney – the dream team antichrists – however, this is not an excuse!! Mitch Robinson needs to pull his finger out before he is dropped – and I don’t just mean from my team! Houlihan was also pretty rubbish, as well as Murphy and Judd being well tagged. In the Sydney camp, the only player to cap 100 points was Rhyce Shaw. This fact highlights how ordinary Sydney is as a Dream Team squad – as a winning side, you would expect much higher scores! Also for Sydney, Jolly did nothing much, Goodes was tagged out of the match, and Ryan O’Keefe made it clear he doesn’t want to be in the red and white.

Get on: No one from this game deserved recognition.

Get off: Ryan O’Keefe – Doesn’t care about the colours he wears. Deserves to be dropped to the reserves for a week until he finds the spirit.

Injury: Barry Hall was suffering from ‘old’ and was a late withdrawal.

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide:

Port smashed on the scoring in this game, with 8 players scoring over 100! This included fantasy young guns Travis Boak and Nathan Krakouer – both starting to really hit their straps. Hamish Hartlett looked quite good – he is bigger than I expected (although only just) – and I expect he will play a few games this year. Again, keep in mind the players currently on the sidelines – the Burgoyne brothers and Cassissi. For Hawthorn, Garry Moss went BANG, and Roughy flopped… as did Mitchell, Hodge and to an extent, Franklin, who is still yet to hit his straps (take this as a good thing!).

Get on: Danyle Pearce – he won the rising star a few years ago, so was always going to be good. He has stepped it up this year, and really seems to have improved in the areas that saw him dropped last year.

Get off: Daniel Motlop- maybe I just feel this because I find his arrogance annoying, but he is WAY to inconsistent for me, as this round’s performance highlighted.

Injury: Brent Guerra – did his hammy, so should miss the obligatory 3 – 4 weeks.

St.Kilda vs Fremantle:

Saints did what they should have done on Saturday night, and sank Freo to the tune of 83 points. Riewoldt hit his straps, kicking 5 goals (1 more than the entire Fremantle team), and the continued dominance of St.Kilda’s midfield, Montagna, DalSanto and Goddard, helped put a smile on many coach’s faces. Fremantle on the other hand were lowly – we’re lucky that this isn’t Supercoach! Their key players, including Pavlich and Sandilands, just couldn’t get their hands on it. The Saints are showing massive Dream Team potential, and now is the time to get on them before their prices skyrocket even further! Especially Riewoldt, as his price will start to rise over the next few weeks (keeping in mind though that he traditionally isn’t very good against Port).

Get on: Sam Gilbert – was a star on Saturday night, and literally received a standing ovation after a purple patch in the 3^rd quarter. He is still priced under 300k and is worth every cent.

Get off: Chris Tarrant – Looked like rubbish, and any slice of Dream Team potential in him has been sucked dry.

Injury: Justin Koschitzke – Apparently was taken from the field only as a precaution – however, will most likely miss at least one match.

Geelong vs Adelaide:

Little Gary Ablett broke the record for handballs – can someone tell him that a handball is only worth 2 points?!? Regardless of this disappointing fact, he made his way to the biggest score of the round, and for the second week in a row I was stupid enough to not make him captain! Oh the tragedy! The rest of the team looked good too, with Corey and Bartel scoring well, and with Selwood getting his first ton of the year! For the Crows, Tyson Edwards was the only one to score over 100, with Scott Thompson and my main man Tippett not far behind.

Get on: Gary Ablett – Did you lose because your opposition had him as captain? If you answered ‘yes’, you know why you need him!

Get off: Cameron Mooney – just can’t seem to get it right – he will kick a bag occasionally, but don’t look to him for consistency!

Injury: A few knocks and cuts… but they’ll get over it!

Sunday:

North Melbourne vs Essendon:

Finally, Brent Harvey was able to get a good score, and get all fantasy coaches across Australia licking their lips at his now deflated price. He was best on ground with 33 possessions and 3 goals! Others to impress were young Jack Ziebell and big Hamish McIntosh, who is now replicating his 2007 form. Unfortunately for many coaches, Skipworth went down with a hamstring, but luckily scored 54 before going down. For some it is disappointing – for others, a good excuse to use a trade on a player you weren’t feeling too secure about anyway! David Hille’s form continued to be down – the question is whether he can turn his season around.

Get on: Brent Harvey – but wait another week or two until his price flat-lines (also to make sure he can keep this form up) – we know what he can do, and he is worth getting on at a good price.

Get off: Mark McVeigh – it is unfair to put him here after his first game of the season, but the reason is more to say ‘Hold Off’ – he is a star, but needs some match fitness first.

Injury: As stated above, Skippy injured his hammy, and Matt Campbell was also injured.

Richmond vs Melbourne:

I really don’t think the result of this game was as surprising as everyone is making it out to be. Richmond have been poor all season, and Melbourne have actually looked quite reasonable – They just needed to come up against an easier opposition than those they have been playing. Joel Bowden set himself the target of beating Gary Ablett’s new record, however falling short. The only positive Richmond can take away is the good form of Alex Rance and the decent debut of Andrew Collins. Again, it was some of Richmond’s more mature players who did nothing to help the cause, with Newman, Deledio and Simmonds the main offenders. For Melbourne, I enjoyed watching Petterd’s dual with Newman, and Aaron Davey’s continued early season form. Also, contrary to Richmond, it was the kids who got Melbourne across the line – a very good sign for the future.

Get on: Aaron Davey – seems to be working much harder this year – possibly he is more fit than previous years. He is still priced low and worth the punt.

Get off: Troy Simmonds – he has been playing with poor skills and poor attitude. Don’t put him in your team because he doesn’t want to be there.

Injury: Brad Green – Broken jaw will put him out for at least a month

West Coast vs Western Bulldogs:

Probably the biggest upset of the round, the Eagles looked a totally different outfit to the one who lost to the Saints last week. In fact, they played much of the game with the same ferocity as the team who beat them by 97 points last week. Bulldogs just couldn’t control their skills that, in turn, led to the final result. Wirripanda attained the best score, but it was Shaun Higgins who impressed me the most – he looks like he has taken such a big step this year from last – he puts himself in all the right places, and has the skills to finish it off. Cox was also better this week, playing with a bit more spark, especially with a long run down the wing, which would have tired anyone out! Also, it was good to see such a ferocious game from Kerr – he played like… ummm… Kerr, which was great to see – bouncing in and under every pack with no regard for his own health.  Disappointing was the games of Gia and Gilbee – both seemed like they were lacking game time and ther ability to get into the game.

Get on: Shaun Higgins: I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again – he’s a keeper, and still priced under $300k. GET HIM!

Get off: Chris Masten – this is the second week in a row he has looked flat. In a winning team, and with no tag, he should be scoring higher.

Injury: The Dream Team world stood still when DT Superstar Darren Glass went off the field injured… fortunately he returned to see out the match!

Expert: Dan
Team: Hank Scorpio EDT
Round 4 Score: 2,031
Overall Ranking: 6,440
Trades Remaining: 17
Remaining Salary Cap: $116,900
Team Changes:
In: Dayne Beams
Out: Liam Anthony

Expert: Toby
Team: Fiora’s Hardnuts
Round 4 Score: 2,065
Overall Ranking: 875
Trades Remaining: 18
Remaining Salary Cap: $68,400

Expert: Ben
Team: The Redbacks
Round 4 Score: 1,843
Overall Ranking: 7,729
Trades Remaining: 18
Remaining Salary Cap: $15,300

Be sure to check out last night’s webcast with special guest Darian Kuzma. View it here

Round 4 is always the best time to start talking about Nick Riewoldt. Obviously we know he’s a DT gun, but if you’ve got him and you’re worried by his price drop, here’s some stats to alleviate your fears. If you haven’t got him, here is exactly why he should be on your radar to trade in over the next few weeks.

Riewoldt’s a notoriously slow starter, which is why I typically don’t start with him. You can generally bank on getting him at a cheaper price a few weeks into the season. So far that has gone to plan this season, but only because he copped a knock in Round 1, so he had a low score of 39 in that game.

His two games since then have been 93 and 102, which is back towards the scores we have come to expect from him. His break-even score for this week is still quite high (around the 130 mark) so he could be in line for another slight drop in price, which would have him only a little above $400K.

With that said, he is playing against Fremantle this week. They look shocking so far this year and St.Nick has a great record against them (last five vs. Freo 126, 152, 107, 107 and 119). OK, so maybe he’s a chance to go up in price this week, but the two weeks following are against two sides he hasn’t performed well against recently (average of 63.4 in his last five against Port and 82.6 vs. Bulldogs). Here’s hoping that form continues because his price will be super low come Round 7 and 8!

If you have a look at Riewoldt’s stats he goes BANG at about the half way point of the season. In somewhat of a coincidence you can even pinpoint Round 13 as the point where he generally explodes. However, his form can be a little patchy leading up to that point of the season.

If we’re to look at past form, you can get him well underpriced for roughly a 3-4 week window around Round 7-10. The reason I’m writing this now, rather than then is that it’s important to always keep him in mind, because he could easily buck the trend and go psycho with his scoring at any stage, but do bare in mind he has two sides coming up that have contained him a bit better than most over the last few years.

His season average in 2008 was 99.4, but in the last ten games he averaged 118.0. There’s a similar correlation over the two years before that with his season average in 2006 and 2007 being 96.7 and 99.3 respectively, but his last ten games in those season being 104.9 and 108.5. So he’s usually better by ten points per game in the second half of the year. The fact that you can get him underpriced means that you’re paying for him based on an average around the mid 90′s, but if your timing is right you get a player who averaged almost 120 on the run home last year.

Monitor him closely, because it’s absolutely critical that you don’t miss the Riewoldt train. It’s a week-to-week proposition trying to figure out if he has hit his basement price, but you’ll obviously get a huge advantage if you can get him at his cheapest. Now that we’ve seen the first movement in prices I know I’ll be more interested in Riewoldt’s scores than any other player I plan on trading in.

Note: YouTube upload speed is killing us at the moment and pinpointing a time this broadcast becomes available has proven very difficult . We will address the situation. Thanks everyone, enjoy the show.

This week, the Footy Tragic panel welcomes a very special guest, Darian Kuzma, who is currently ranked #8th overall in Supercoach (not to mention almost cracking the top 1000 in Dream Team).

View Darian’s Supercoach team here

View The Ruckus’ Team
Round 3 Score: 2,063
Current Overall Ranking: 3,254
Trades Left: 18
Remaining Salary Cap: $153,900

Dear The Ruckus

Thank you for submitting your team.

I’m going to start off by axing a very popular 2009 dreamteam player in Andrew Raines. I just can’t understand what all the fuss is about with Raines. The guy can’t mark above his head & he refuses to kick the football. Why over 46,000 teams still have him in their side despite the fact he sustained a knee injury in Round 1 is beyond me. It is worth noting here that Raines missed almost the entire 2008 season with a knee injury. Raines may return in Round 5, but I very much doubt he will repay the faith shown in him by so many teams when he does return. At best, I expect Raines to average approximately 60 points per game. At a price of $188,100, I can’t see his price sky rocketing in value. To put it bluntly, I prefer others.

The other change I have recommended is a forced change given Trent Hentschel is out until at least Round 7. As you currently have $153,900 sitting in the bank, my recommendation is to dump Raines for a defender priced around the $87,000 mark & load up on the next best available forward.

Paul Medhurst is your man. Medhurst was one of the dreamteam success stories of 2008. After a stellar year, last season, Medhurst missed a large part of the Magpies 2009 pre – season due to injury. Despite very little preparation, Medhurst has still averaged 79 from the first 3 rounds & fallen to a very attractive price of $371,100. While this is hardly a match winning score, I see plenty of upside for Paul Medhurst in 2009. I expect him to average around 90 this season, which is very solid for a 4th or 5th forward.

PROPOSED ACTION THIS WEEK:

OUT – Andrew Raines ($188,100), Trent Hentschel ($122,700);

IN – Alex Rance ($86,600), Paul Medhurst ($371,100).

This will leave you with $7,000 in the bank.

Good luck!