Footy Tragic

Friday:

Collingwood vs Carlton:

It’s these sorts of matches that make me sometimes hate the fact I have to watch every game, every week! What is generally a luxurious task can become harrowing when served up such drivel as was this match on Friday night. Such was the quality of disposal, we can only thank our lucky stripes that we play Dream Team – a possession based scoring system – rather than Supercoach, one that relies on clean disposal. Now i’m probably being only 50% fair here – Carlton were the ones responsible for the state of play and Collingwood ran out fair victors. The star of the show was Leon Davis – the only man on the field capable of waking us from our slumber with two miraculous goals. He has really stepped up since the pressure has moved from him to Didak in the past fortnight. Once again, the star of the DT points was Dane Swan – he has been my saviour this year with his consistency and his massive scoring potential. I have no reason to play anyone else but him as captain this year, and if you have him, I advise you to do the same! For Carlton, Marc Murphy was the best, and interestingly, I thought Heath Scotland – the second highest scoring Blue – was one of the worst on the ground, seemingly turning over every second disposal. Fev also proved the point I have been making about him the past two weeks – he is the best AFL player you DON’T want in your dream team, due to the massive difference between his best and worst.

Get on: Leon Davis - has been seemingly out of form for a month or so, but stamped himself as ‘back’  with an amazing display which gained him BOG honours.

Get off: Paul Medhurst – I’ve said it so many times now, I feel I should change my choice, but I refuse. He is incredibly out of form, even though the team around him is playing great footy. He is a passenger in 2009.

Injury: Brendon Fevola – had his ankle stood on by the goal umpire and limped out the match. Should be fine, but keep an eye on him.

Saturday:

Geelong vs Hawthorn:

This game was a distinct parallel to Friday night’s game - it was high pressure, high quality and was played by two desperate teams with a lot on the line. In the end, it was a hard-fought win by Geelong, who pushed through adversity with two men down. However, it was not the final score that was the significant number of the game - it was the number 185 - this is the number of dream team points collected by third-year Geelong star, Joel Selwood! 185! 185! That’s ONE-EIGHTY-FIVE!!! And he didn’t just get it from playing kick-to-kick all night in the backline – he epitomised the game through his hardness at the ball and tackling pressure. It was Joel Selwood who won the first game of Geelong’s amazing streak for them back in 2007, and it could be he who reignites their recently faltering 2009 season. Also of DT news was the continued form of Buddy – he kicked five goals – and whilst he was playing a Cats team without Scarlett or Taylor, it was the way that he went about it that impressed me the most – all goals were true ‘Buddy’ goals – the swagger looks to be back!

Get on: Joel Selwood – The kid is a superstar – he is fantastic to watch and works so hard for his team. You can tell he loves the blue and white hoops, just as you will love him in your team. But think quick – he won’t last at $400,000 for long!

Get off: Mark Blake - he didn’t play, I am aware. But I can guarantee that he won’t play again this year. Mumford and Hawkins are both offering much more than Blake, so if you have him, get off him, he won’t be coming back!

Injury: Matthew Scarlett and Harry Taylor - each injured their groins and were put on ice. I would expect them to miss a week or two whilst Geelong make sure they are 100%.

Fremantle vs West Coast:

Half way through this game I was begging for a replay of Friday’s Collingwood vs Carlton instead! Without wanting to complain about how hard I have it, I will instead just give you the run-down you are after! Again it was a game where even the stars of their respective teams were making silly mistakes. But again, it is dream team we care about, so who cares!? Matthew Pavlich came back in keen style, playing very much as a wide receiver, meaning his stats were well up on earlier in the season. It is worth noting to those who don’t have the Pav, in his previous game he was injured early, meaning he only scored a measly 16 points. This means that his price is set for a real dive over the next fortnight – so if you are in need of a forward, look out! Also a welcome inclusion into the Freo side was big Sandilands – as expected, he dominated in the ruck and won the medal for BOG. He looked unaffected by any injury, meaning that if you are still debating your ruck stocks, he could be your man! For the Eagles, Priddis was great as usual, and I was more than impressed with the game of Tim Houlihan – he played on the wing and scored very well, cracking the ton for the first time in his career. He is very cheap and could be worth keeping an eye on.

Get on: Matthew Pavlich – was a touch rusty in his first game back from injury, but should play out the season as a reliable forward option. He is Freo’s best player and can play anywhere on the ground, meaning Freo will make sure that he is positioned close to the ball at all times!

Get off: Kepler Bradley - Q: How do you know if a team is tanking? A: They are giving games to Kepler Bradley!

Injury: Tim Ruffles - was very sad to see him collapse with a buckled knee late in the match. Fearing the worse, he could be out for the year.

Brisbane vs North Melbourne:

It is very handy that the three players I wanted to talk about are Brisbane’s three highest DT points scorers for the match. Leading the way was Jonathon Brown, who kicked eight goals on his way to a dominant 145. He is on fire, and as I continue to say, he is like a train – when he gets in a run of some form, he is close to impossible to stop! Mitch Clarke has become a somewhat saviour to many coaches in recent weeks when he became the most popular trade target down from Dean Cox – and he hasn’t disappointed, scoring 114 and 126 in his past two matches. He is in hot form and still worth jumping on board! Playing his third game for Brisbane was Jack Redden – I said to get him last week and I hope you listened! He backed up his previous effort with a 106 points – and he worked hard to get there. There is no wonder Vossy loves this kid – I’m sure he can see a bit of himself in him! For the Kangas, Liam Anthony was my favourite as usual, but was closely followed by Gavin Urquhart – I really rate this kid, as do the Roos – he has been out of form for a while, but this game may have signalled that he has re-found that spark from early in this year. Watch him next week and if he backs it up, get on!

Get on: Jonathon Brown: It’s hard to ignore the big guy when he is in such good form, yet still under $400,000!

Get off: David Hale: Mark, kick, goal = 12 points. Tackle = 4 points. 2 kicks = 6 points… Surely not THAT hard to score, right? Right? Five points from Hale just doesn’t cut the mustard if you ask me!

Injury: Strangely, not David Hale.

St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs:

The Saints again pushed off another group of top four wannabes with a comprehensive win which once again saw them gather extreme amounts of DT points! They have become a dream team juggernaught with ten players again cracking the ton (and three more less than 10 points off!). In doing so, they stymied the Bulldogs normal point-scoring abilities, with only two players making their way to 100. The moral of this story – don’t name any captains against St.Kilda… hell, even Dane Swan only scored 79 points against them earlier in the year! Brendon Goddard was best afield with 37 disposals – most of them coming in the back half of the ground, showing that he is playing more of a sweeping role – one which it would be hard to tag him in, due to the way the Saints set up. Riewoldt was next best, smashing Brian Lake and his dreams to become All-Australian, kicking five goals on him. Roo is in fantastic form at the moment and with a good run home should be able to keep it up without too much fuss! The bad news from the match came in the form of Shaun Higgins as he limped to the bench in the second quarter with a groin injury. He was sent back out, only to pull up even worse with a groin related hamstring stain… does not sound good!

Get on: Nick Riewoldt – he is in fantastic form and with a brilliant run home for a forward (Sydney, Hawks, Essendon, North and Melbourne) should see him score well for the DT finals campaign!

Get off: Josh Hill - really faded with the pressure of the big game, and the Doggies have a lot similar coming up. If I were a Hill owner, I would be paranoid as to what I would get out of him in coming weeks!

Injury: Shaun Higgins - Should miss around 3 weeks with him groin/hamstring issues. Robert Murphy also had a light hamstring strain which should see him miss a couple of weeks too.

Sunday:

Melbourne vs Sydney:

In a somewhat nothing game that no-one really seemed to care about, Sydney prevailed, yet with no real bravado or flair. Unfortunately for all the ROK owners who simply ‘forgot’ to put him captain last week, yet ‘remembered’ this week, he only pulled out half of his last week’s score. He was still good, yet in a low scoring game, scores of 173 cannot be expected! It was again a ruckman that gained the BOG honours, with Darren Jolly kicking three goals and dominating the ruck. Whilst his score only just broke the hundred, his game epitomised what should be expected from him – and that is consistency. Whilst he rarely scores 130′s, he rarely brings home 50′s either. Because of this, he is a good mid-priced option who can be relied upon. For Melbourne, I liked Michael Newton, but would never put him in my team – whilst he can take a massive grab, he very easily goes missing. Petterd also continued his move upfield, surely impressing coaches who were wise enough to hold onto him (or who didn’t have enough trades to offload him when they wanted to!).

Get on: Jordie McKenzie – played well in his first game, after deserving his Guernsey with several good performances in the VFL. He is a mid priced at $91,000 for those needing a downgrade option who should play the remaining rounds.

Get off: Paul Johnson - Not even Bailey wants him - had a sook about being forced to select him with Jamar’s injury. Clearly not the type you want in your team with finals approaching.

Injury: None

Essendon vs Richmond:

Damn you Richmond! You cost me a perfect eight in my tipping competition! Although I am happy that it was Deledio who led you over the line! In fact, there were several good scores from this game – whilst most notably was the return to form of Deledio, Jack Riewoldt’s six goals are very hard not to mention! He is an exciting player when up and running! He was played on predominantly by Hurley – a player who typically has trouble on bounding forwards such as Riewoldt, which obviously helped his scoring potential. Due to this, I wouldn’t get too excited about Riewoldt as a 2009 prospect. Although, when the tigers become a force in years to come, he may become one of the first selected in Dream Teams each year! For Essendon, Prismall led the way – I have been very impressed with him this year – his maturity levels seem so high for his age, and he even looks like a potential future captain of the club. I feel Geelong will certainly miss him in years to come!

Get on: Brent Prismall – Really wins the ball well as both an inside and outside player. With both Stanton and Watson in the team, he is not on the top of ‘players to tag’ lists, meaning he will generally be free to do what he wants.

Get off: Mark McVeigh – Been such a disappointment over the past month - I expected him to be a great smokie come finals time, but he is just not pulling his finger out.

Injury: Matthew Lloyd - Limping all day with a sore heel - unsure how long he will be out for. Jarrod Silvester – Looked to injure his knee late in the match, but was seen walking the boundary unaided after the game. Hopefully he’s just a sook and will be back this week.

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide:

Another disappointingly unexciting match between two rivals saw Adelaide come out easily on top. What this match really needed in it was a bit of Matt Thomas… I certainly missed his ‘crow-killing’… From a DT perspective, this was quite a poor match as many of the favourite players playing came out with less than acceptable scores, as well as injuries to Andy Otten and Chad Cornes. Fortunately, Otten’s injury looks only to be a one weeker… Chad’s didn’t look quite as good though. Nathan Bock won the BOG medal and was definitely the deserved winner – whilst he fell one point short of the ton, his rebound work was sublime, and as I have said in previous weeks, his consistency is something to treasure come finals time. In fact, his past fortnight has seen some of his best footy this season. For Port, my favourite was Jason Davenport – he’s a classy little nugget and reminds me a lot of Geelong’s Paul Chapman. Whilst his scoring is not quite that of Chappy’s yet, he is definitely on the improve – definitely one that will need to be looked at closely for 2010.

Get on: Michael Doughty - one of those players who goes about his business totally unnoticed…  until you realise he is only a $350,000 defender who averages close to 90 points a game.

Get off #1: Brett Ebert - Again was smashed by his opponent and allowed him to run off…  tempts coaches with some great games, but lacks consistency.

Get off #2: Kurt Tippett – No, don’t trade him out! I’m just giving my boy a wake-up call and sending out the reminder that I warned everyone not to get sucked in! Brett Burton is back and stealing Tippett’s goals – don’t expect 7 goals again any time soon!

Injury: Andy Otten – Corked Thigh – Should return next week. Chad Cornes – Hurt his knee again – diagnosis not yet available, but I remain sceptic that he will return with any great form for the finals.

Expert: Dan
Team: Hank Scorpio EDT
Round 17 Score: 2,203
Overall Ranking: 3,700
Trades Remaining: 1
Remaining Salary Cap: $125,500
Team Changes This Week: None

Expert: Toby
Team: Fiora’s Hardnuts
Round 17 Score: 2,324
Overall Ranking: 117
Trades Remaining: 1
Remaining Salary Cap: $12,400
Team Changes This Week: None

Expert: Ben
Team: The Redbacks
Round 17 Score: 2,189
Overall Ranking: 4,476
Trades Remaining: 1
Remaining Salary Cap: $103,400
Team Changes This Week:
In: Luke Hodge
Out: Jack Grimes

It’s really hard to try and makes these articles relevant now, because most teams primarily aiming for the best possible overall ranking will probably have done their upgrades by now. However, for those of you shooting for league supremacy it’s impossible to predict where you need upgrades. I guess I’ll just check out the best value that I see on the board and that man is Triple D. 

Dalziell was a DT’ers dream, so to speak last year. He came in from Round 16 and dominated with a 94.7 average all at a rookie price. Dalziell is all grown up now and is priced around the same mark as other DT guns, but to me he’s presenting great value for the run home. Injury cost him points back in Round 5 when he scored 48 points. In his first game back after a long lay off Razzle Dazzle showed no signs of missing a beat with a 103 (granted, against Freo). 

Maybe it’s just the romanticism of last season, but so far this season he has scored four tons in six games (one of those was when he got injured against Geelong). That’s already more tons than he scored in his impressive run home last year. 

The thing I really like about Dalziell is that he’s a very average kick of the ball. The opposition are more than happy to let him have the ball, because there a better chance that it’ll result in a turnover than if they allowed someone like Luke Power or Simon Black. If you’re an AFL coach, really you’re pretty cool with Dalziell having his hands on it by comparison to some of Brisbane’s silky users. 

His run home is neither here nor there. Brisbane don’t play any of the teams Top 5 teams for DT points against, however they don’t play the three stingiest teams. Their run home of North, Collingwood, Essendon, Bulldogs, Port and Sydney is mostly full of teams that are around mid table for DT points conceded. It should be noted that although Sydney have typically being DT shockers, that’s starting to change a little bit (they’re the fourth most restrictive team this year). 

The one thing I will point out about Dalziell is that he has a very big break even score this week, so he’s not quite at his cheapest. If your structure demands an extra gun midfielder this week, then Dalziell presents the best value in my opinion. Bear in mind though, if you are in no rush to make an upgrade that you should be able to get him a little cheaper next week. At this stage of the year, money won’t be a huge issue for most coaches (the amount of trades left is the big issue!), but I thought I’d just throw that out there.

View Alligator Pav’s Team
Round 16 Score: 2,007
Current Overall Ranking: 12,900
Trades Left: 3
Remaining Salary Cap: $160,600

NEW TO FOOTY TRAGIC

Dear Footy Tragics,

From now until season’s end, the “Submit Your Team” section will be broken up into two parts:

• PART 1 – The “Submit Your Team” section as per normal;

• PART 2 -The NEW section where I unearth a hidden gem who I expect to make an impact in 2010. These players are under priced because they have been in the AFL system for 3 years or less & are still trying to establish themselves as AFL footballers. I’m looking for the next Andy Otten, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitchell Brown or Taylor Walker.

PART 1:

Dear Alligator Pav,

Thank you for submitting your team.

I’m reluctant to recommend any trades this week, because it is in your best interest to retain these for the finals. Additionally, with the possible return of Josh Fraser this week, you should have a solid team of 22 players this week. Having said that, I’m going to focus more on your team structure & advise you where to use your remaining 3 trades:

• TRADES 1 & 2 – Assuming no injuries, I would hold off on any more trades until Round 19 (Week 1 of finals) & then do a 2 for 1 trade. Your 7^th defender Nathan Grima has done well to average 66 points per game, but you need to upgrade him to a premium defender (e.g. Brendon Goddard or Paul Duffield) to bolster your defence. You could consider offloading Stephen Hill or Ryan Houlihan instead of Grima, depending on what is the most appropriate option at the time.

To free up sufficient cash to make this trade, I would recommend offloading either Liam Anthony or Daniel Rich (you’ll need to make that call prior to Round 19). I’d keep one of these two as your 6^th midfielder & sell the other for a cheap playing midfielder who could be used as an emergency in the finals. It’s worth noting here that Beau Muston was named in the best players for Box Hill last weekend, so he could still return to AFL action in 2009. 

• TRADE 3 -Hold this trade until either Round 21 or Round 22 to cover for an injury. By following my recommendation above, you should have approximately $150,000 – $200,000 in the bank to make your final trade. This means that you’ll be able to select an absolute gun with your final trade, to replace an injured premium.

If you do not pick up any injuries to your premiums between now & Round 22, insert either Dane Swan or Nick Riewoldt to finish off your team in style.

Good luck! 

PART 2 (NEW):

Hidden gem Week 1: Tom Lynch -  St. Kilda - Forward – $102,600

Tom Lynch was drafted by the Saints with pick 13 in the 2008 National Draft. Lynch was recruited from the Sandringham Dragons as a 192cm, 85kg forward, in the mould of Ryan O’Keefe from Sydney.

While Lynch has played the majority of his under age footy as a fast & hard leading forward, he has the endurance to play midfield (he was 9^th overall in the beep test at the 2008 draft camp) & the versatility to play defence.

Lynch was co - captain of the Vic Metro Under 18 team in the 2008 Under 18 National Championships, where he averaged 13.5 disposals, 5 marks & 1.5 goals per game.

Lynch has been super impressive for Sandringham in the VFL this season, having been named in their best players numerous times, as well as being a regular goal kicker. In Lynch’s most recent game 2 weeks ago, he kicked 4 goals in a losing side against Collingwood (Sandringham had the bye last weekend).

One thing I like about Lynch is that he can be selected in your dreamteam as a “forward”. As we all know, there is always an abundance of cheap midfield options to select, but it can be tricky selecting a quality under priced forward.

In summing up, despite Lynch’s very impressive form at VFL level this season, he is unlikely to make his AFL debut in 2009 because St. Kilda is flying. While this is not great news for Lynch, it is great news for dreamteamers, because we will be able to pick him up for a bargain price in 2010. What’s more, by then he’ll have two pre – seasons under his belt.

Please feel free to post a comment to let me know your thoughts on the new section. Please also advise if you’ll be considering Tom Lynch in your dreamteam in 2010.

Thanks & good luck!