Footy Tragic

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide:

Looking Good:

• Daniel Giansiracusa: Scored his first ton for the year in great style – moved to the midfield in Boyd’s absence and carved Adelaide up. Hopefully his form here could see it become a more permanent move!
• Ryan Griffen: Griffen is finally starting to learn how to win the ball, not just dispose of it well. He was best-afield with his brilliant kicking, and set up the win for the Dogs early on.
• Lindsay Gilbee: Was solid off half-back, with plenty of marks and kicks really helping his DT score. Shows what he is capable of when he doesn’t have an opponent sitting on him all game!

Disappointing:

• Patrick Dangerfield: Copped a knock early in the game and never really got into it. His main DT problem is going to be his lack of kicks, marks and tackles – he just seems to love handballing!
• Nathan VanBerlo: This was his first game of the year and understandably he never really got into it. The fact his game time was limited and the fact his team saw little of the ball meant his first game back was nothing to be too excited by.
• Robert Murphy: Didn’t participate too much in the match until he got a bunch of bonus points in a kick-to-kick session at the end of the match. Still doesn’t seem to have come into any form yet this year…

Blip on the Radar:

• Nathan Eagleton: Generally is a good participant in the game and is one of the Dog’s more outside players. Whilst there shouldn’t be any doubt on his potential to rack up the stats, his problem is both his consistency and his age; his form can be very up and down, coupled with the fact his age increases his likelihood of getting injured (as we saw with his late start to the season).

Sydney vs West Coast:

Looking Good:

• Beau Waters: Was a really solid player again for the Eagles and looked to move more upfield in the absence of Kerr. His form and fitness have proven to be one of the great DT stories so far this year!
• Dean Cox: He’s baaaaaaaaack!! Cox finally looks to be over his injury worries and is looking to have his form back. Whilst still switching between ruck and the forward line, he was clearly Woosha’s first-choice ruckman for the game. He has now bottomed out, so this is the time to pounce!
• Ryan O’Keefe: Was best afield all the way until three-quarter time (he spent most of the last quarter on the bench). He continues to rack up the disposals through the midfield with the highlight being the fact he continues to kick more than he handballs!

Disappointing:

• Dan Hannebery: After two super games in a row, the second year player saw very little of the ball, and frustratingly was exclusively handballing.
• Chris Masten: Has proven to be one of the worst DT ‘bargains’ of the year – his form has been really average – he just looks like he can’t get anywhere near it. The absence of Kerr will hurt him (as we saw here), as it means he will now be the main tag target in the team.
• Nic Naitanui: Cox’s return to form hurt Nic-Nat’s scoring as it relegated him to mainly playing in the forward line. If there were one slight on Naitanui’s game, it would be his marking, meaning his form as a forward is not fantastic.

Blip on the Radar:

• Kieran Jack: Was one of the most pivotal players in the game with his hard brand of football. But whilst he is a potential future star, Jack’s current role in the team is that of a tagger – and whilst this week he was not required to lock down as hard, against better opposition he will ultimately have to sacrifice his own game for the good of the team.

Melbourne vs Brisbane:

Looking Good:

• Jack Trengove: Easily his best game in the red and blue – was probably the classiest midfielder on the field and his accurate passes and great goals were highlights. Is really building on his form, proving that throwing the kids to the wolves is by far the best way to develop youngsters.
• Michael Rischitelli: Is in great form at the moment, and I was especially impressed by his work around the stoppages. Whilst he fell just short of the ton, I thought he was one of the few Brisbane players capable of walking off with their heads held high.
• Colin Sylvia: Another super game by the Melbourne tyro – he again played his game between both the forward line and the midfield and threw his body into every possible contest, proving that he has no reservations about the jaw he broke just over a month ago.

Disappointing:

• Jonathan Brown: There was much speculation coming into the game about Brown’s fitness – and whilst he played, he was clearly hampered. He would have been better to sit the game out, and by the way he was looking, don’t be too surprised if he is out of next week’s team.
• Tom Scully: I feel guilty singling this kid out as he definitely isn’t a bad player – but his game is just not the most suited to dream team (too many handballs, not enough kicks or marks). Those who picked him over Trengove may now be feeling a bit bashful…
• Ash McGrath: After such a strong finish to the 2009 season as a rebounder, McGrath looks to be back into a defensive role. Disappointing from a DT point of view.

Blip on the Radar:

• Joel Patful: Patful is one of the more versatile ‘defensive’ players on the Lions’ list, meaning he is regularly rotating through different roles, depending on what is most suited. Whilst he spend this game running off Petterd, most of the time he plays as either a dour defender or a tagger – two rubbish DT positions.

Port Adelaide vs St.Kilda:

Looking Good:

• Domenic Cassisi: This was Cassisi’s best game for the season and was exactly the kind of game he relishes – it was in tight and close and hard. Worth noting is how cheap he is at the moment after a slow start to the year – but if he (and Port) can keep this form up, he could prove an absolute steal!
• David Rodan: In only his second game back from a knee reconstruction, Rodan was clearly the best on field. The Saints stupidly allowed him to run free (Montagna was his opponent) and he took full advantage of it with some brilliant runs up the middle.
• Leigh Montagna: One of the better Saints on the night and the highest disposal getter on the ground – thanks to the omission of both Gram and Ray, Montagna was the only elite outside player left in the Saints team, meaning he was continually delivered the ball.

Disappointing:

• Justin Koschitzke: Was easily the worst player on the ground – if there were one player who needed to step up, it was Kosi. Yet every time he had his chances – a big mark or a goal – he stuffed it up. Needs to find form, and fast.
• Brendon Goddard: Was attempting to play a very outside role for the game (he is typically a ball-winner, not just receiver) due to the loss of Gram and Ray, but due to the fact the game was played so tight, it meant his disposal count suffered. Will bounce back.
• Robbie Gray: Played predominantly as a forward and didn’t do too much. He sat out much of the last quarter with cramp which suggests he is not fully match fit after his stint on the sidelines. I am very worried about if and when he will come good…

Blip on the Radar:

• Paul Stewart: Still a young player with plenty of scope, but found himself the loose man on many occasions. This won’t be a regular occurrence, so until it becomes a consistent thing don’t get too excited.

Essendon vs Collingwood:

Looking Good:

• Sharrod Wellingham: Is really stepping up this year, minus the plaudits. Has both an inside and outside game and runs the lines really well. What initially looked like a bit of a flash in the pan is becoming somewhat of a consistency instead.
• Dayne Beams: Another player taking his game to a new level – had 11 brilliantly weighted inside-50s, making him the most important player on the ground. Is proving he is more than just a hard-ball winner.
• Brent Stanton: Returned from a week off and picked up where he left off. His ball-winning skills are sublime, and as we spoke of in the pre-season, his consistency is becoming a real highlight.

Disappointing:

• Dane Swan: Whilst 83 points isn’t something to be ashamed by, but when you are Dane Swan and the most popular captain choice in dream team, it is appalling. He just couldn’t get into the game, being well held by Hocking. A move to behind the ball in the last quarter proved to be a points-saviour.
• Mark McVeigh: Played again as a tagger, this time on Leon Davis, meaning he was relegated to the back pocket for long sections of the match. This role is a total DT-killer. Get rid of him before he starts to leak cash!
• Michael Hurley: Kicked only one goal whilst spending most of the game in the forward line. Admittedly, the Bomber’s forward line was totally dysfunctional, however Hurley’s form is nothing close to what he promised at the end of last year!

Blip on the Radar:

• Josh Fraser: Got amongst the goals and played stints in the ruck in his best game of the year. But as he has proven in the other four games this year, his new role of forward/ruck (rather than ruck/forward – No, this is not a Zoolander quote…) has proven to be detrimental to his DT scoring – I wouldn’t expect that this game will prove a permanent form turnaround.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne:

Looking Good:

• Luke Hodge: Again played an awesome utility game, adding another string to his bow by becoming the key ruckman in the absence of Renouf. Still seems to play most of the game without an opponent.
• Jordan Lewis: Looks to be back in touch after his round 3 concussion ruined both that round and his week after. Was back to his hard and tough best and low looks a bargain option for any midfield!
• Daniel Wells: Was back into the midfield after a stint off the half-back line and was the Kangaroo’s best. Not only did his kick three pretty decent goals, he seems to be racking up the disposals too. Seems to be finally maturing.

Disappointing:

• Clinton Young: Still lacking some much needed match fitness and only gained himself 10 disposals. Young is one of the most important players on the Hawks list, so they will play him into form. The only worry is that it may take a while for him to get there.
• Rick Ladson: As usual he got plenty of the ball in patches, yet finished with only 66 points. He played stints in the midfield, so I was disappointed that this wasn’t able to improve on his scoring.
• Gavin Urquhart: For so long now I have held high hopes for this kid, yet since his debut season he just hasn’t come along. He is a player capable of kicking the ball so well, yet he always feels the need to just bomb it long…

Blip on the Radar:

• Stephen Gilham: Yes, I know I used Gilham as an example last week… and yes, that does kinda defeat the purpose of this segment if he is scoring consistently! But still, the warning remains: Do not go near Gilham – he has been lucky (two weeks in a row now) at winning plenty of cheap ball, but it is not part of his game requirements. Don’t be sucked in by two games in a row! Please!

Fremantle vs Richmond:

Looking Good:

• Michael Barlow: Looked back to the form he showed in the opening rounds with some really strong ball-winning skills and a huge kick. Runs around like a really mature player and always makes the right decision.
• Brett Deledio: Was played off the half-back line and his creativity set up a lot of Richmond’s scoring. He looked really at home down there, despite his opponent having three shots on goal (fortunately he only kicked 1.2). He was good enough to make this a permanent move.
• Nat Fyfe: Was ultra impressive in his first game – the kid looks like he’s still mid-puberty, but he clunks a mark like a pro! Was really lively in the forward line and I was impressed with his marking and quick handballing skills. Unfortunately, his goal-kicking was the one let-down of his game.

Disappointing:

• Michael Johnson: Was back-up to Sandilands, but really just floated around the packs without much contribution. I think he would be much more suited to playing a key-position, but unfortunately with Zac Clarke still developing it looks like Johnson is the only real 2^nd ruck option.
• Troy Simmonds: Spent his time trying to nullify Sandilands instead of actually trying to get a hit-out and struggled all day. I couldn’t help but feel sorry for him when his kick at goal at the end of the game went straight into the man on the mark, and as he scurried after it, he tripped and fell over the line… It sorta summed up his game.
• David Astbury: Whilst I talked up his game last week, I struggled to even catch a glimpse of him this week. I just wanted to make the point that he is perhaps not the forward to bring in (if you are looking at doing a downgrade) – perhaps the likes of Fyfe would be a better option.

Blip on the Radar:

• Adam McPhee: Played definitely his best game for Freo since his return, although it was still marred with plenty of his trademark turnovers and trips… Personally I wouldn’t go near him, because even though he may be finding some form, the form he has found is still nothing spectacular.

Geelong vs Carlton:

Looking Good:

• Gary Ablett Jnr: Despite being tagged by his nemesis Aaron Joseph, Ablett did as he pleased and racked up a game high 33 disposals. He still does not look like slowing down – those who invested in Dane Swan over Ablett will be starting to get pretty angry…
• Bryce Gibbs: His first game this year where he has actually impressed me. Played more as a straight midfielder rather than being assigned a job – those coaches getting worried may finally be able to breath a sigh of relief.
• Chris Judd: Dominated just as he did last week, although Ling did slow him down a bit in the second half. It is hard not to love Judd’s hard-ball winning ability – it is second to none in the AFL. He is finally looking over his injuries too, which will only help him.

Disappointing:

• Steve Johnson: Was absolutely dominated by Jordan Russell and was kept to only one goal and one mark for the game. The Cats forward line seemed totally dysfunctional without his contribution – I also worry that he may still not be 100% recovered from his hip injury.
• Tom Hawkins: He is still not getting any of the ball, and for the second week in a row was totally ineffective. He didn’t even get a kick, let alone kick a goal!
• Lachie Henderson: Had several chances to take an easy mark in front of goal but dropped all of them – he is still very young and raw, and it must be remembered that the Blues are not using him as a main option in the forward line with their new three-small forward structure.

Blip on the Radar:

• Jordan Russell: Played out of his skin, totally dominating Steve Johnson. Not only did he stop Johnson’s effect on the game, he ran off him to the tune of 21 possessions and 10 marks – a great dream team game. Russell has shown signs in his few games this year, however I do worry a little about his consistency in this role for the rest of the season, especially with the eventual return of Waite and Thornton. He could prove a DT star of the future, but this year I feel may be a bit too early.

Expert: Dan
Team: Hank Scorpio EDT
Current Ranking: 8,658
Round 5 Score: 2,192
Trades Remaining: 16
Team Changes This Week:
In: James Podsiadly, Tom Rockliff
Out: Walker, Relton Roberts

Expert: Toby
Team: Fiora’s Hardnuts
Current Ranking: 4,004
Round 5 Score: 2,025
Trades Remaining: 17
Team Changes This Week:
In: Lenny Hayes
Out: Dustin Martin

Expert: Ben
Team: The Redbacks
Current Ranking: 506
Round 5 Score: 2,045
Trades Remaining: 18
Team Changes This Week:
In: Tom Rockliff
Out: Paul Medhurst

Be sure to check out today’s edition of Tuney’s Tuition!

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ADELAIDE
Western Bulldogs
B: Jarrod Harbrow, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Ryan Hargrave, Tom Williams, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Nathan Eagleton, Daniel Cross, Daniel Giansiracusa
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
F: Jarrad Grant, Barry Hall, Shaun Higgins
Foll: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen
I/C: Dylan Addison, Jason Akermanis, Andrejs Everitt, Jordan Roughead
Emg: Brodie Moles, Josh Hill, Easton Wood

In: Akermanis, Johnson, Grant, Roughead
Out: Matthew Boyd (hand), Josh Hill, Will Minson, Brodie Moles

New: Jordan Roughead (North Ballarat Rebels)

• Roughead is finally confirmed to debut after being named on the extended bench a couple of weeks ago. He proved in the NAB cup he is a legitimate player and will be good with time. Unfortunately, the issue will be that his job security – i feel that dropping Minson is just a statement, rather than a permanent change. So if you have Roughead already, good luck to you, but if you don’t, he is not worth the trade to get him in.
• Veterans Akermanis and Jonson return to the lineup, which a number of coaches will be happy to see. Also, Jarrad Grant gets his first game of the year – again, don’t expect him to set the world on fire – key positions take a long time to grow and learn the game, so don’t expect anything different from Grant.
• Boyd out is a big one for plenty of coaches, but it will only be this week. It is disappointing to see Moles dropped, but it’s not too hard to see why. Being first emergency could be good if either Johno or Aker don’t get up.

Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Chris Schmidt
HB: Simon Goodwin, Phil Davis, Michael Doughty
C: Myke Cook, Patrick Dangerfield, Andrew McLeod
HF: Chris Knights, Brett Burton, Bernie Vince
F: Jared Petrenko, Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia
Foll: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly
I/C: Nathan van Berlo, Tyson Edwards, Richard Douglas, Ricky Henderson
Emg: Jonathon Griffin, Scott Stevens, Matthew Jaensch

In: van Berlo, Henderson
Out: David Mackay (hamstring), Taylor Walker

• Adelaide seem down to their last few fit players – Mackay will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury and Walker has been dropped.
• VanBerlo is a big in for the Crows (although he has never been a super DT star!). Henderson will make his debut for the club – he is a rookie listed Key Position player and averaged only 32 points in the NAB. He is a real project player (he has come from basketball), so i would be surprised if he had a major impact.

SYDNEY SWANS v WEST COAST
Sydney Swans
B: Craig Bolton, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Tadhg Kennelly
HB: Martin Mattner, Heath Grundy, Nick Malceski
C: Jarrad McVeigh, Brett Kirk, Rhyce Shaw
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Goodes, Josh Kennedy
F: Shane Mumford, Daniel Bradshaw, Jarred Moore
Foll: Mark Seaby, Jude Bolton, Kieren Jack
I/C: Daniel Hannebery, Lewis Jetta, Nick Smith, Jesse White
Emg: Ed Barlow, Ted Richards, Gary Rohan

In: Smith
Out: Ben McGlynn (quad)

• Disappointing to see McGlynn injured after some super early form – he will miss 3 – 4 weeks which can make things hard to cover.

West Coast
B: Matthew Spangher, Darren Glass, Brett Jones
HB: Shannon Hurn, Will Schofield, Beau Waters
C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley
HF: Chris Masten, Mitchell Brown, Ashton Hams
F: Dean Cox, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Brad Ebert, Adam Selwood
I/C: Patrick McGinnity, Bradd Dalziell, Scott Selwood, Lewis Stevenson
Emg: Ben McKinley, Brad Sheppard, Tom Swift

In: Hurn, Stevenson
Out: Daniel Kerr (hamstring), Ashley Hansen

New: Lewis Stevenson (Claremont/rookie list)

• Stevenson is a good sized midfielder – he is 20 years old and has come off the rookie list to play his first game (This is his third year on the club’s rookie list). The club will be hoping one of him or Scott Selwood can step up into the void left by the injured Kerr (12 weeks) – keep a close eye on both these boys as the increased role has the potential to see their scoring skyrocket.

MELBOURNE v BRISBANE LIONS
Melbourne
B: James McDonald, Matthew Warnock, James Frawley
HB: Cameron Bruce, Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn
C: Jack Trengove, Aaron Davey, Clint Bartram
HF: Brad Green, Ricky Petterd, Nathan Jones
F: Colin Sylvia, Matthew Bate, Rohan Bail
Foll: Mark Jamar, Jack Grimes, Brent Moloney
I/C: Joel Macdonald, Jordie McKenzie, Tom Scully, Jamie Bennell
Emg: Stefan Martin, Jordan Gysberts, Kyle Cheney

No change

• Probably the first time in a long time the Dees have gone in with no changes!

Brisbane Lions
B: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Travis Johnstone, Matt Maguire, Josh Drummond
C: Jared Brennan, Daniel Rich, Andrew Raines
HF: Justin Sherman, Jonathan Brown, Jack Redden
F: Todd Banfield, Brendan Fevola, Brent Staker
Foll: Matthew Leuenberger, Michael Rischitelli, James Polkinghorne
I/C: Mitch Clark, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff, James Hawksley
Emg: Albert Proud, Troy Selwood, Matt Austin

In: Clark, Black, McGrath
Out: Luke Power (hip), Albert Proud, Troy Selwood

• Whilst both Clark and McGrath return from suspension, the real story is that Rockliff is now set to play his third game – his form has been great so it is good to see him rewarded.
• Luke Power is the big out for Brisbane, although i think this will hurt Brissie more than it will hurt dream teams.

PORT ADELAIDE v ST KILDA
Port Adelaide
B: Jacob Surjan, Alipate Carlile, Troy Chaplin
HB: Paul Stewart, Chad Cornes, Steven Salopek
C: Danyle Pearce, Domenic Cassisi, Jason Davenport
HF: Matt Thomas, Warren Tredrea, David Rodan
F: Robbie Gray, Brett Ebert, Justin Westhoff
Foll: Dean Brogan, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes
I/C: Tom Logan, Matthew Lobbe, Jay Schulz, Hamish Hartlett
Emg: Mitchell Banner, Michael Pettigrew, Josh Carr

In: Schulz, Lobbe, Hartlett, Stewart
Out: Daniel Stewart, Nathan Krakouer, Jack Trengove, Cameron Hitchcock

New: Matthew Lobbe (Eastern Ranges)

• Port have made several changes for their big clash against the Saints – both Krakouer and Hitchcock are out with one week injuries, and Stewart and Trengove have each been dropped.
• Lobbe is confirmed for his first game, although don’t expect the scoring to be massive. He showed in the pre-season that he is not yet a DTer, however if he can prove a good chop-out for Brogan, expect him to keep his spot!
• Injured midfielder Hartlett will play his first game for the year – keep a good eye on the kid as he is a future star – the only worry is his hamstrings!

St Kilda
B: James Gwilt, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert
HB: Steven Baker, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Leigh Montagna, Clinton Jones, Nick Dal Santo
HF: Andrew McQualter, Jason Blake, Adam Schneider
F: Justin Koschitzke, Michael Gardiner, Stephen Milne
Foll: Steven King, Raphael Clarke, Lenny Hayes
I/C: David Armitage, Brett Peake, Farren Ray, Jarryn Geary
Emg: Robert Eddy, Jack Steven, Ben McEvoy

In: Koschitzke
Out: Jason Gram (inj)

• Whilst Kosi was the obvious ‘in’ after his three week suspension, Gram’s injury was the surprise. If i were a skeptic, i would not be too surprised if Gram was actually dropped (this EXACT same scenario happened last year – Gram was out ‘injured,’ but lined up in the VFL that weekend) – his game on the weekend was sub-par, and with a strong team across the board, Ross Lyon has every right to make an example of players not pulling their weight.

COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON
Collingwood
B: Heath Shaw, Ben Reid, Ben Johnson
HB: Harry O’Brien, Nick Maxwell, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Luke Ball, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Josh Fraser, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
F: Dayne Beams, Paul Medhurst, Leon Davis
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas
I/C (from): Leigh Brown, Brent Macaffer, Tarkyn Lockyer, Chris Dawes, Nathan Brown, Alan Toovey, Shane O’Bree

In: N. Brown, Dawes, O’Bree, Reid
Out: Simon Prestigiacomo (groin soreness)

• Although Presti is a massive ‘out’ for Collingwood, the fact he averages about 15 DT points mean we aren’t too interested – in fact, all of Collingwood’s changes are totally irrelevant to DT!

Essendon
B: Dustin Fletcher, Tayte Pears, Nathan Lovett-Murray
HB: Courtenay Dempsey, Cale Hooker, Henry Slattery
C: Jake Melksham, Jobe Watson, Kyle Reimers
HF: Brent Stanton, Scott Gumbleton, Ricky Dyson
F: Jason Winderlich, Michael Hurley, David Hille
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Andrew Welsh, Travis Colyer
I/C (from): Angus Monfries, Sam Lonergan, Bachar Houli, David Zaharakis, Alwyn Davey, Heath Hocking, Mark McVeigh

In: Stanton, Monfries, McVeigh, Davey
Out: Mark Williams (foot)

• “Foot…?” Yeah right… After four poor games to start the year, Williams has gotten the ‘boot!’
• Stanton is a HUGE in – he is averaging the most points per minute this year in DT so is a very welcome inclusion to many teams! It is also great to see McVeigh back, assuming Knights plays him in the midfield and not in a back pocket.

HAWTHORN v NORTH MELBOURNE
Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Thomas Murphy
HB: Ben Stratton, Ryan Schoenmakers, Rick Ladson
C: Grant Birchall, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman
F: Michael Osborne, Jarryd Roughead, Campbell Brown
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C (from): Xavier Ellis, Jarrod Kayler-Thomson, Garry Moss, Carl Peterson, Liam Shiels, Brendan Whitecross, Clinton Young

In: Sewell, Franklin, Kayler-Thomson, Shiels
Out: Jarryd Morton

• It looks like the Hawks are finally starting to get some of their stars back – both Sewell and Buddy are very welcome inclusions, whilst JKT and Shiels have been named on the extended bench. If i were an owner of the latter two, i would not be holding my breath over them playing though, unfortunately.

North Melbourne
B: Michael Firrito, Scott Thompson, Brady Rawlings
HB: Nathan Grima, Lachlan Hansen, Scott McMahon
C: Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Ryan Bastinac
HF: Aaron Edwards, Todd Goldstein, Brent Harvey
F: Daniel Wells, David Hale, Ben Warren
Foll: Hamish McIntosh, Andrew Swallow, Levi Greenwood
I/C (from): Liam Anthony, Lindsay Thomas, Leigh Adams, Gavin Urquhart, Josh Smith, Sam Wright, Cruize Garlett

In: Smith, Greenwood, Garlett, Cunnington
Out: Leigh Harding

New: Ben Cunnington (Geelong Falcons)

• Ben Cunnington – FINALLY! The kid had a bit of a run of injuries leading into the season, hence his late start, but i’m sure Brad Scott has been desperate to play him. Cunnington was the DT superstar of the TAC cup, averaging over 100 DT points in each of his matches. He is a tackling hero, averaging five per game – this mainly stems from his love for the contest; he is foremost an in-and-under player, winning 44% of his 20 disposals from under a pack. Essentially, he is a ‘Brad Scott-type’ player with his tough attitude and great work-rate. This kid will go far this year and win plenty of DT friends i’m sure.

FREMANTLE v RICHMOND
Fremantle
B: Jay van Berlo, Chris Tarrant, Adam McPhee
HB: Greg Broughton, Luke McPharlin, Roger Hayden
C: Matthew de Boer, David Mundy, Paul Hasleby
HF: Michael Johnson, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill
F: Des Headland, Chris Mayne, Anthony Morabito
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow, Paul Duffield
I/C (from): Hayden Ballantyne, Rhys Palmer, Nat Fyfe, Clancee Pearce, Kepler Bradley, Ryan Crowley, Alex Silvagni

In: Fyfe, Palmer, Bradley
Out: -

New: Nat Fyfe (Claremont)

• Fyfe is a ball winning medium forward, drafted to the Dockers with pick 20 in last year’s draft. He only averaged 42 points in the pre-season, but Mark Harvey’s love of picking the kids may see him earn plenty of opportunities this year.
• Palmer may also play his first game of the year after being sidelined for 12 months after rupturing his ACL. As proven in his first year, he is a strong ball-winner both inside and outside packs. He looks to have put on a lot of muscle in the off-season which will only help him through the year.

Richmond
B: Shane Edwards, Luke McGuane, Matt Dea
HB: Richard Tambling, Kelvin Moore, Chris Newman
C: Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin
HF: Troy Taylor, Jack Riewoldt, Nathan Foley
F: Ben Nason, David Astbury, Ben Cousins
Foll: Tyrone Vickery, Alex Rance, Shane Tuck
I/C (from): Troy Simmonds, Andrew Collins, Mitch Morton, Mitch Farmer, Dean Polo, Matt White, Robin Nahas

In: Newman, McGuane, Foley, Cousins, Polo, Nahas
Out: Daniel Jackson (leg), Tom Hislop (leg), Jayden Post

• More changes for the Tigers, but at least the three debutants from last week have kept their spots – i was most impressed with Astbury who looked confident at senior level – they will face a test this week against Freo though.
• Senior players Newman, McGuane, Cousins and Nahas return to the team, and Nathan Foley will play his first game of the year – several big positives for Richmond.

CARLTON v GEELONG CATS
Carlton
B: Ryan Houlihan, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Dennis Armfield, Simon White, Jordan Russell
C: Bryce Gibbs, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Andrew Walker, Setanta O’hAilpin, Marc Murphy
F: Eddie Betts, Lachlan Henderson, Chris Yarran
Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Heath Scotland, Andrew Carrazzo
I/C (from): Jeff Garlett, Richard Hadley, Kane Lucas, Brock McLean, Mitch Robinson, Jarrad Waite, Robert Warnock

In: Hadley, McLean, Waite
Out: -

• No outs yet, but Lucas, Robinson and Hadley would all be looking pretty shaky on that bench. Personally i see Waite, Robinson and Hadley missing out, but i have been wrong before. The final Monday teams won’t be released until Friday night, so be sure to check prior to lockout before you rely on one of these guys.

Geelong Cats
B: Josh Hunt, Tom Lonergan, Darren Milburn
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: James Kelly, Cameron Ling, Joel Corey
HF: Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly, Paul Chapman
F: Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Gary Ablett
Foll: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
I/C (from): David Wojcinski, Mark Blake, Nathan Djerrkura, Ryan Gamble, Shannon Byrnes, Max Rooke, Simon Hogan

In: Djerrkura, Gamble, Rooke, Hogan
Out: Mitch Duncan (general soreness)

• No incredibly important ins for Geelong, but Duncan’s exit is a disappointing one. Although he is only out with General Soreness, he will now find it very tricky to break back into the Cats strong lineup.
• Despite Duncan’s omission, one forward line positive is the fact that Podsiadly is sitting pretty, named at CHF for his third game!

Dear Footy Tragics,

With four weeks of exposed form behind us, dreamteam coaches around the country now have a clear picture of which players have been quality selections and which players have been dud selections. Everyone is now talking about which players they are going to trade in or out of their squad, which is why I’m going to take a closer look at trading this week.

Ideally, prior to Round 1, you should have placed each of your 30 players into one of the following three categories:

Premiums – Price range $350,000 plus;

Mid Priced Value Picks – Price range $180,000 – $350,000;

Cash Cows – Price range under $180,000.

The reason why we need to categorise our players into one of the above sections, is so we can set our expectations accordingly. When we set our expectations too high, it will inevitably lead to disappointment. A disappointed dreamteam coach is usually very quick to wield the axe on an underperforming player, simply because: “player X is killing me, he has to go”. These rash decisions are usually based on emotion rather than logic and many trades are wasted as a result.

We should expect our premiums (or keepers) to average at least 85 points per game. This figure is on the conservative side and more suitable when talking premium forwards or premium defenders. If you have loaded up in your midfield with elite premium midfielders such as Dane Swan or Gary Ablett, an average of 110 points per game should be expected.

If you forked out $470,000 on Bryce Gibbs or $453,400 on Joel Selwood, you have every right to be feeling slightly bemused by their relatively slow starts to the season. However, any thought of trading them out now would be madness. Gibbs and Selwood are both high quality midfielders in their fourth season of AFL footy. I expect both of them to fire up sooner rather than later. As the old saying goes “form is temporary, class is permanent”.

We should expect our mid priced value picks to average between 70 – 80 points per game, with anything more considered a bonus. Players such as Nick Malceski and Hayden Ballantyne have been excellent selections in 2010. However, after just 38 points and 29 points respectively in Round 4, many dreamteam coaches are preparing to wield the axe. I’m sure most coaches would have taken an average of 85 points per game from Malceski and 68 points per game from Ballantyne pre season.

When analysing mid priced value picks, we must take the good with the bad. I don’t believe any coach has the right to praise Malceski one week after scoring 119 points in Round 3 and then crucify him for scoring 38 points the next week. Overall, Malceski and Ballantyne have been great thus far, so put that axe away and show some faith.

Last, but certainly not least are our all important cash cows. Our cash cows are every bit as important as our premiums such as Jonathan Brown and Matthew Pavlich and they are often where the game (or car) is won or lost. First year AFL players such as Alex Silvagni, Ben Nason, Tom Scully, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Ryan Bastinac, Mitch Duncan, Cameron Hitchcock and Carl Peterson have gone from being unknown 18 – 22 year old kids to core components of nearly 100,000 dreamteams in the space of just six months!

As expected, these first year players have some very good weeks, along with some average weeks. This should come as no surprise as the only thing consistent with first year players is their inconsistency. Unfortunately many dreamteam coaches act more like slayers than coaches as they wield that mighty axe after just one average game.

We should expect our cash cows to average between 55 – 65 points per game, with anything more considered a very nice bonus.

The worst thing a dreamteam coach can do is fritter away those all important trades due to a lack of patience. Before clicking that button to confirm one of your golden trades, ask yourself this all important question: “Am I making the right decision, or can I give my player one more week to redeem himself?”

Good luck!

So as I was explaining last week, this article will look at players that are set to go bang. Generally I’ll have a look a couple of falling premiums, maybe try and explain why their scoring has been below par, find some stats to indicate they’re on the way back up etc. However, I’m also committed to using this article to write a brief description of all rookie priced players who are on the verge of their first price rise. 

This week there are SEVEN players on the bubble, so forgive me for not writing about a premium this week, I’ve got seven rookies to write about so there’s plenty of reading material for you to go on with. FWIW, Dean Cox is the most intriguing premium. He’ll still be relevant to write about next week, but his break even this week of 106 this week is actually achievable, so this could be as cheap as Cox will be this season. Pending a good game this week I’ll be taking a very close look at him next week when there are far less rookies about to soar in price…  
 

Chris Schmidt – Adelaide ($94,500 DEF, Break even: -71) 

First two games: 81 vs. Melbourne (L), 60 vs. Carlton (L) = 70.5 avg. 

The rookie listed Crow hasn’t been too bad in his first couple of games. To be “not too bad” is basically like being in the Top 5 at the Crows the way they’re going this year. His spot in the team should be pretty safe for a few weeks with so many Crows playing so badly. For a rookie back his scoring potential isn’t really a problem, he fits the bill there, but long term I’d be more worried about his job security, which as I mentioned seems pretty solid for now. He’s not a super kick of the ball, so as the Crows start getting guys back from injury I wonder if his kicking will come under the microscope from match committee. Mind you, that’s more of a general comment about his game – his kicking has been fine in his two games so far. 

Tom Rockliff – Brisbane ($101,100 FWD, Break even: -91) 

First two games: 87 vs. Port (W), 78 vs. Bulldogs (W) = 82.5 avg 

My love for him is well and truly on the record. I love the way he’s been able to find space on the wing so far in his first two games of the season. For a bloke who was always knocked for having poor fitness, he’s working pretty damn hard. It’s obviously been a big improvement in his game. He’s a very smart footballer with the capability of racking up good numbers. Job security could be an issue down the track, but with his current form he demands selection and will make good money quickly. If the Lions have a few more guys pushing into their midfield, Rockliff could keep his spot in the team as a forward too. 

Kane Lucas – Carlton ($113,500 MID, Break even: -77) 

First two games: 67 vs. Essendon (L), 93 vs. Adelaide (W) = 80 avg. 

He managed good numbers in his first game against Essendon, but didn’t really look that good IMO. A much better performance against admittedly pedestrian opposition last week and he almost snagged a ton! He’s a little pricier than most of midfield rookies at $113K. I’m a bit of a fan of his and honestly there’s nothing intuitive about this next comment, but I just kind of get the feeling he might take a little bit of time to consistently be a good scorer at AFL level. It’s more of a hunch than anything, but if your hunch makes you think the other way, then good luck. 

Travis Colyer – Essendon ($89,500 MID, Break even: -75) 

First two games: 68 vs. Carlton (W), 73 vs. West Coast (L) = 70.5 avg. 

Pacy outside player with a reasonably one way game and questionable kicking skills – sounds like someone Knights would play. That sounds a lot harsher on Colyer than it’s really meant to, because I’ve enjoyed his first two games I quite liked his form for WA in the U/18 Nationals last year. The major worry I have is that Knights seems to be a coach that likes to give players a taste at the top level and then drop them to Bendigo (Pears, Myers in 08, Zaharakis in 09, Howlett this year). Consider his stint in the seniors a bit of an experiment and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t back to the VFL in a few weeks after gaining some valuable experience. 

Jake Melksham – Essendon ($121,500 MID, Break even: -27) 

First two games: 57 vs. Carlton (W), 59 vs. West Coast (L) = 58 avg. 

Like his similarly small framed teammate, job security will be a risk with any Essendon youngster that isn’t a freak of nature (see: Hurley). Melksham is a naturally inside player and he has remarkable poise for someone of his age. He’s just one of those players who always seems to have more time than you think, but isn’t necessarily quick (reminds me a bit of Pendlebury in that regard). However, with a small frame and an inside game I’d only be expecting him to play another 4-5 consecutive games at most. He’s a player I rate very highly, but I’m currently drafting a personal rule where I don’t take Essendon rookies. I’ll be watching the case study of Colyer and Melksham very closely after the unwarranted demotion of Howlett. 

James Podsiadly – Geelong ($77,800 FWD, Break even: -143) 

First two games: 85 vs. Freo (L), 115 vs. Port (W) = 100 avg. 

Seriously, who doesn’t love this guy?! There’s something incredibly endearing about a guy that he made his debut at such a late age he’s actually starting to sprout a couple of grey hairs. And how has his form been? He’s kicked eight goals in his first two games and has been in better form than Mooney and Hawkins. Those who were sold on a downgrade to Rockliff this week have to be asking a few questions of themselves now. J-Pod (yep, I’m not ashamed to use such a lame nickname) is about $25K cheaper, has similar top end scoring potential and similar job security. Like Rocky if he keeps up this form he simply can’t be dropped. With their expected price booms it makes sense to trade in the forwards this week with Hitchcock and Gumbleton pretty close to maxed out on price and Roberts a total spud. Rocky vs. J-Pod will be a huge decision for many coaches this week. 

Ben Stratton – Hawthorn ($89,500 DEF, Break even: -37) 

First two games: 62 vs. Bulldogs (L), 41 vs. Collingwood (L) = 51.5 avg. 

Out of all the guys ‘on the bubble’ that I’ve spoken about I rate Stratton’s job security the best, especially with Josh Gibson out for so long at Hawthorn. The 21 year old originally from East Perth is not a huge ball winner though. So you’re more looking at a guy with a fairly safe spot in the team, but more of an emergency type for your team. He’s not going to be one you rely on for big scores, but every now and then might bust out a 70 or so to pump up his price. If you missed on Maguire at the start of the year, I think Stratton is a pretty decent alternative before his price rises. 

I would also like to thank Grimlock and FF Genie for the break even numbers. Don’t know what FF Genie is? Check out www.freewebs.com/ffgenie – top quality program!

There comes a time early in the season, in just about every team, where you regret a few pre-season decisions – you’ve taken a punt on a player who never improved, or you blew your budget to lock in a premium who has so far done less than the player you have sitting on your bench… So round five onwards seems to be the time where you begin to ditch these failed experiments and leaky premiums for greener pastures – you look at players who are averaging 110 points (who you nearly had in your team before round one) and you wish you had enough money to afford them. But then you look a little bit down the list at players already well below their starting price, the players whom other coaches are wishing they didn’t start in their teams. But unlike your dud player, these other players have dropped for a variety of other reasons – an early injury in one game, a really hard tag in another, or possibly the team around them just got off to a really slow start. But the beauty of these players is that you know they are going to come good again – they averaged well over 100 last year, and if it weren’t for a couple of poor games to start 2010, they would be averaging 100 again now. These premium players, who may have already dropped in excess of $50,000 are the types you should be targeting right now – you will be getting them at bargain basement price, and often you are well aware of what you are going to get out of them for the remainder of the season. So this week I will look at two falling premium forwards; Alan Didak and Steve Johnson – historically they are both DT stars, but so far in 2010 they haven’t been any better than average – but lucky for you, I believe things are about to change!

Alan Didak:

Didak started the season with a price of marginally over $450k, but after four weeks he has already lost his owners $59k, meaning he is currently priced at the very affordable $392,400. The reason behind his early season plummet is taggers – whilst in round one against the Dogs Didak player well, scoring a very good 111 points, in round two it was form that was the issue – like most of the Pies, he just couldn’t get into the game (This was when they narrowly defeated the resilient Demons). Weeks three and four, Clint Jones and Gary Moss followed him around the ground, each doing a fair job at curtailing his influence, a fact that could certainly read as either good or bad – good because it is not a form issue behind his low scoring, bad because it is proving that he is the main target of taggers in the Pies lineup. Fortunately though, Didak does have some fairly good support around him to potentially take the pressure off – all of Pendlebury, Swan, Davis and Thomas have the potential to cop the opposition’s number one tagger for the game. If we shoot back 12 months to Didak’s 2009 season, we can see that he didn’t really hit his straps until his 6^th game of the season – 127 points against Melbourne. From then until round 22, Didak averaged 110 points, and only dropped below 90 points twice. So he is certainly capable of having some big games, and plenty of them in a row. The fact that Collingwood is only now starting to hit their straps is also an encouraging factor – against both Melbourne and St.Kilda they were very flat and the entire team scored appropriately – so it was not just Dids who copped a low score. Also, his game was actually not too bad – he was well held, but he did show signs that he is not far off his dominant form. So whilst he is often the subject of tagger’s attention, he has proven in the past that he has the workrate (and the team around him) to combat this.

As it stands, Didak has probably one more week until he hits his lowest price – he has a breakeven of 134 points, so at the very best he is still likely to drop down some more – 100 points will see him slashed a further $15,000 or so. At this price, Didak is worth the gamble – he is a great DT player and has the runs on the board to prove it. His team is currently coming out of a rut and into some form which should help carry his average upwards.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.4 : 1

Average Marks per game: 2.5

Average Goals per game: 1.75

Average Disposals per game: 21.75

Breakeven: 134

Average Dream Team Points: 84

Price: $392,400

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.4 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.1

Average Goals per game: 1

Average Disposals per game: 25.5

Average Dream Team Points: 103

Steve Johnson:

Stevie J is a notoriously slow starter to the season. In 2008 he averaged 71 points in the first four rounds before averaging 93 for the season, and in 2009 a dry patch from rounds 3 and 6 saw his price drop when he averaged 87 points. Again in 2010, the average for his first four games has been 86 points, forcing his price to drop by $45,000. But his 103 points (thanks to a bag of six goals) in round four is proof that he is coming back into form. Johnson’s issue has not so much been taggers (although he was well held by Broughton in round 3) as it has been fitness. As many coaches would know, Johnson’s 2009 season was cut short at the business end thanks to ongoing issues with his hip – it caused him to miss six of the last nine games and then a large portion of the pre-season. Like many of his teammates, Johnson was put on a very low-grade training program in the off-season to ensure he came into the season well rested. Whilst these sorts of programs can prove effective at preventing injuries, the side-effect is that it will generally take a few weeks for players to get satisfactory match fitness up. Now, Johnson’s few weeks of regaining fitness appear to be up and his six goals on the weekend have gone a long way to proving he is back in touch. The only worry is that he spent very little time venturing upfield to win ball in the midfield – whilst one can assume that this is again related to his fitness, there is the worry that perhaps his hip is hindering more than Geelong would care to let on and therefore there is a chance he could be bound to the forward line for the majority of the year so as to make sure he does not re-injure the hip. When he is up and going, Johnson is brilliant to watch, and scores you plenty of DT points. I am pretty confident that his form (and DT points) will return as his fitness continues to build (and Geelong get on a bit of a role), however a part of me does throw caution to the wind – I am still a bit worried that his hip issue that Geelong say ‘disappeared’ in the off-season may come back to bite both him and the coaches that pick him up in the bottom… Perhaps just be sure to have a trade up your sleeve for the business end of the season…

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.77 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.75

Average Goals per game: 2.75

Average Disposals per game: 18.75

Breakeven: 118

Average Dream Team Points: 86.25

Price: $391,900

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 6.2

Average Goals per game: 2.22

Average Disposals per game: 20

Average Dream Team Points: 99