Footy Tragic

Adelaide vs Geelong:

Looking Good:

• Bernie Vince: Played another great game through the midfield, further damaging my prediction of a few weeks ago that he wouldn’t come good this season. Has returned from injury well and is leading the Crows resurgence.
• Joel Selwood: Was one of only a few in-form Geelong midfielders on the night as their high-possession game plan seemed to fall by the wayside. Finished with a very impressive 35 disposals and 6 marks.
• Harry Taylor: Was fantastic in the Cats defence, mopping up plenty of Adelaide attacks. He played on a variety of younger opponents and was allowed to run off them when the likes of Scarlett and Enright weren’t. Played very well, but don’t expect too many games like this one.

Disappointing:

• Corey Enright: Second week in a row he has stunk it up so he tops my disappointing list. He used to be Mr. Consistent, but has lately been finding himself tagged out of games with the likes of Hunt and Taylor taking up his rebounding responsibilities in the process. Should really come good soon – I think it is more coincidence than form issues that have seen him give out two poor scores in a row.
• Kurt Tippett: Looked lively early when manned by Lonergan, but as soon as Scarlett moved to him he was held very quiet. Finished with just one goal, but it was his five frees against that really killed his score.
• Gary Ablett: Ablett finished on a respectable 81 points, but his game was quite poor by his standards. In fact, his form across the past month or so has been quite average – at this point I would not consider making him captain at all! He is getting frustrated by his game, is going to ground more and receiving less support from both his teammates and umpires. It may just be coincidence, but this Gold Coast decision certainly seems to be looming over his head.

Blip on the Radar:

• Harry Taylor: As I stated above, Taylor’s game was a great one, however not one that will likely be repeated too often this year. He is close to AA form this year, but his game does not typically involve much rebound from defence, especially with players like Scarlett, Milburn and Enright alongside him.

Collingwood vs St.Kilda:

Looking Good:

• Dane Swan: Best on ground again for Swan with 36 touches and 7 marks. He is stunning through traffic and great at finding his own space, hence being the ball-winning man that we love. He simply keeps producing. I am already salivating about him playing Richmond next week at the MCG! Especially with Jackson out suspended!
• Sam Fisher: Was the Saints best player, acting as a loose man in defence and chopping off plenty of Collingwood forward-entries. He had a whopping 18 marks amongst 33 disposals. Hopefully this can be the start of a purple patch for him.
• Dale Thomas: Was great all day, but especially in the second half when Collingwood started displaying their party tricks. Played through the midfield all day again and is still keeping his consistency up with 27 disposals and 12 marks. He won’t ever sell a dummy to Hayes again though…

Disappointing:

• Farren Ray: Played as a small defender on the repositioned Heath Shaw and lacked any sort of rebound. Has been ultra consistent since crossing from the Dogs, so it is a shame to see him have a bit of a shocker.
• Stephen Milne: Just the one goal for Milne, and it was a gift from Pattison. He simply struggles in big games, and proved it here with another poor showing.
• Chris Dawes: Was held pretty tight by Dawson and only kicked the one goal for the game. Saints have got a typically good record on Tall forwards, and with no Cloke to act in support, Dawes’ game wasn’t necessarily a surprise.

Blip on the Radar:

• Jarryn Geary: Has been a good developing player for Saints, but is more of a role player than a ball winner. This season he has switched from defence to defensive forward each week, with this game seeing him given a role as the latter. The Saints often played through him to keep his opponent accountable, but it is not a typically high scoring role, nor one we will see him in consistently.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane:

Looking Good:

• Jordan Lewis:
  

  Played again on the half forward flank and kicked a bag of four goals, including three in the first quarter. His role was a defensive one of Travis Johnstone, but to keep Johnstone accountable, the Hawks regularly went through Lewis to get into the forward line, hence his massive score. He plays this role very well, suggesting this is where he will play out the season from.

• Brad Sewell: Sewell was dropped in selection this week due to his continued poor form, but was given a reprieve when Buddy was a late withdrawal. Sewell came out swinging, finishing with 39 disposals and 6 tackles – a huge increase on what he has been dishing out up until now. Whilst I wouldn’t pounce on him yet, if he can recapture his 2009 form he is currently dirt cheap.
• Wayde Skipper: Played his best game for the Brown and Gold, making plenty of owners thankful that Hille had reinjured his hamstring. Whilst he wasn’t prolific, he showed good ball winning skills and a good set of hands. Kicked a nice goal too which was some good icing on the cake.

Disappointing:

• Jonathan Brown: In his first game in over a month, Brown showed that he will likely take a few weeks to adjust back to the pace. He kicked three goals but did very little else, being well held by Gibson.
• Brendan Fevola: Only three possessions and a goal for Fev this week, showing the three goals against the Saints last week was simply a blip on the radar. He is in simply shocking form and is playing with no passion or love for the Brisbane Guernsey.
• Justin Sherman: Another player deserving to be dropped from the squad after playing his fourth game of under ten disposals in a row. What’s worse is that he is actually playing a role as a ball-winning midfielder, not a tagger, so these sorts of stats are very damning.

Blip on the Radar:

• Shaun Burgoyne: Burgoyne is a star and was one of Hawthorn’s best two or three players, and will likely continue to be for the remaining rounds. Then why has he made this section? Simple – he is not a dream teamer. Whilst he will play occasional games of over 100 points, typically he will be averaging between 80 and 90, not quite good enough to be selecting at this time of year. He is a brilliant user of the ball and one of the best clearance players in the AFL, but unfortunately, Dream Team doesn’t reward either of these things and he is only an average ball-winner – the most important stat to us.

Essendon vs West Coast:

Looking Good:

• Mark LeCras: This game from LeCras was something special – he finished the game with 12 goals and two behinds – a total of 76 points worth of scoring, or an incredible 118 points worth of DT points if you count the kicks he made to kick the goals! It was an amazing effort and brilliant to watch as Essendon interchanged four opponents on him to no avail.
• Matt Priddis: Priddis controlled the midfield all night, especially in the second and third terms as he pushed West Coast towards the win. He is such a good dream teamer, finishing with 32 touches and 6 tackles.
• Dean Cox: Without wanting to speak too soon, Cox looks to be coming into a bit of form over the past fortnight. As Naitanui begins to tire, Cox’s body seems to be getting fitter with every week – he ended this game with 18 disposals and 7 marks as one of West Coast’s better players.

Disappointing:

• Patrick Ryder: Paddy has really dropped off over the past month, mirroring Essendon’s poor form. Whether he is waiting for Hille to return, or the lack of forward entries are hurting him, I am unsure, but one thing I am sure of is that I would avoid bringing him in after a couple of poor performances in a row.
• Beau Waters: Played another negating role in the backline, killing his dream team potential. After his massive purple patch a month ago it is hard watching his scoring peter away – hopefully it can return for the finals.
• Jay Neagle: After a good game last week, this game he was kept very quiet by Schofield, proving he is not a player for your DT.

Blip on the Radar:

• Ben Howlett: Nearly cracked the ton, but got a lot of the ball in the final quarter junk time. Don’t get too sucked into this one large score though, he is bench cover at best – we all know Knights’ selection policy, so therefore it is probably best to keep well away.

Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide:

Looking Good:

• Daniel Cross: Crossy was the Dogs best, and as is his usual trademark, he was hard all day, helping himself to 33 hard-fought disposals, which also included 14 marks (well up on his average). He is super consistent and a great option heading to finals if you do need a midfielder.
• Matthew Boyd: Speaking of consistency, Boyd was brilliant again, winning plenty of ball through the middle and also dropping forward of centre to snag himself two goals. Strangely unheralded, Boyd is hardly a step behind Dream Team stars such as Montagna and Swan.
• Kane Cornes: In his 200^th game it was fitting that Cornes ran around picking up ridiculous amounts of disposals, as has been his trademark for his previous 199 games. He finished with 35 disposals for the game and a bonus two goals.

Disappointing:

• Cameron Hitchcock: Hitchcock has been a godsend to plenty of forward benches this year but is fading fast. Unfortunately, the AFL season is a long one and takes its toll on younger players like Hitchcock. He was hardly sighted in this game, picking up just the 9 disposals.
• Daniel Giansiracusa: Gia, for me, has been one of the most frustrating players in DT 2010 – his new role in the forward line has been less than beneficial as his points have varied between mid-40′s, all the way to over 150 points! He gives off too many goals and I don’t think his hands are good enough to play as a key forward, so I’m praying for a cameo midfield role though the finals series… somehow I think I’m going to be disappointed.
• Jay Schultz: Possibly took mark of the year, but was unfortunately well held other than that. I think he would be a great third tall forward but struggles as the key target. He did still kick two goals on Lake though – certainly better than most!

Blip on the Radar:

• Nathan Eagleton: Eagleton is very close to being the 22^nd player selected at the Dogs – he is an exclusively outside player, something that the Dogs have in abundance. He is able to find the ball, but his form wavers quite frequently, meaning he is not an ideal selection, this end of the season, or even at the start.

Carlton vs Sydney:

Looking Good:

• Adam Goodes: Once again playing through the midfield, and once again best on ground. He is thriving on his returned responsibilities, now with only occasional time spent in the forward line. Could easily average over 100 for the remaining rounds if this role continues.
• Bryce Gibbs: Gibbs followed Goodes around most of the day and won plenty of his own ball too, finishing with 24 disposals and 6 tackles. He’s still not playing great footy, but is at least building to some good form – hopefully he can sustain some scores over 100 throughout the DT finals.
• Heath Grundy: After a number of weeks of average scores, Grundy clocked up his first ton in a while. He played in defence and helped run plenty of the ball out alongside Malceski and Kennelly. Whilst the oppositions lack of pressure certainly helped, hopefully the Blues have played him back into some form.

Disappointing:

• Lachie Henderson: Was largely ineffective again, finishing with just the five disposals. It has to be remembered that he is a project player and will take a couple of years – at least he is playing better than Fev!
• Paul Bower: Bower played a purely defensive role, ruining his own DT scoring in the process. I’m totally confused about Bower’s season – either his role seems to change every week, or he is injured. Maybe a good 2011 prospect, but I would still be hesitant.
• Brett Kirk: Kirk is a great player, but he plays for the Swans, not your Dream Team. He is one player who looks like he wouldn’t give two stuffs about DT – if he finishes with two disposals and his opponent the same, then he is happy. His point scoring fluctuates as much as anyone, so he is not the type of player you want in your side.

Blip on the Radar:

• Shaun Grigg: Grigg has been in and out the the side all year (more so out), and will likely to continue to be as the Blues continue to fix their forward line on the run. He plays a half-forward role, but can be as inconsistent as hell.

North Melbourne vs Richmond:

Looking Good:

• Leigh Adams: Racked up the ball all day on a forward flank, finishing with 28 disposals and 3 goals. The Roos regularly used him across the half-forward position and he was a strong reason for their win.
• Daniel Connors: Continued his great recent form with another 30 possession game coming out of the backline. He is almost becoming too good to start on your bench with three scores in a row over 115 points.
• Andrew Swallow: Got the hard stuff all day and fed all his fellow midfielders with his superb pack-work. Racked up 31 touches and 8 tackles for the game.

Disappointing:

• Trent Cotchin: Was well held by Greenwood, managing only the 12 touches. His game was further soured by a head-high hit on Wright, which will unfortunately likely see him suspended, despite it being totally accidental. This will be a big talking point in the media this week.
• Aaron Edwards: Has been dominating in the VFL, but just couldn’t mirror the form to AFL level, finishing with only a handful of disposals. May find himself looking for a new club at season’s end.
• Jack Riewoldt: Grima did a great job of holding Riewoldt to just the three goals and 8 disposals. Unfortunately, he can’t dominate every week, especially when his midfield is thrashed.

Blip on the Radar:

• Jake King: If you got points for trying hard, King would be a must have addition to your Dream Team. But unfortunately, trying won’t get you too far in DT – he is a tagger, nothing more, and is not a player you want in your team, ever!

Fremantle vs Melbourne:

Looking Good:

• Paul Duffield: Duffield rarely dominates a game, but he drifts in for several key plays through the game, and every time he always ends with a beautiful pass into the forward line, a great run down the wing, or a great tackle – he is becoming a great player, and a very consistent one at that. Finished with 22 disposals, 7 marks and 6 tackles.
• Colin Sylvia: He started up forward, but was quickly, and fortunately, moved into the midfield for most of the game. He had some good passages and was particularly prevalent when the Dees were getting back into the game. He even got himself a 14-pointer, which was a sight for sore eyes (tackle, free kick, kick, goal = 14).
• Jack Watts: I really wanted to single this kid out for a very impressive game – the stats don’t speak the whole story here, but his workrate up through the midfield and along the wings was first-rate. He followed up plenty of his hard work for some one-twos and looks very ready to lead the Dees young forward line. If he had a bit more meat on the bones he would command a real presence I think – I’m really excited about the future of this kid!

Disappointing:

• Brent Moloney: Was tagged out of the game early by McPhee and really struggled, managing just 16 points in two and a half quarters of footy. He then got a corked thigh in the third, for which he was put in cotton wool – I think he could have kept playing, but was having no effect on the game so was therefore rested.
• Ryan Crowley: Played as a tagging forward and also as a small defender in bursts and it killed his scoring. Whilst he is not typically a big scorer, 26 points is well below what should be expected.
• Mark Jamar: Jamar competed well against Sandilands in the ruck, but struggled for much effect around the ground. In fact, Johnson was the most dominating ruckman around the ground.

Blip on the Radar:

• Joel MacDonald: I like Joel, but I think he is way too much on the cusp of selection at Melbourne. The Dees want to play the kids, so the senior players only need to give the slightest excuse to be dropped. Grimes back in a couple of weeks will also put some pressure on him.

Expert: Dan
Team: Hank Scorpio EDT
Current Ranking: 2,924
Round 16 Score: 2,243
Trades Remaining: 3
Team Changes This Week:
In: Tadhg Kennelly
Out: Ben Nason

Expert: Toby
Team: Fiora’s Hardnuts
Current Ranking: 1,612
Round 16 Score: 2,131
Trades Remaining: 4
Team Changes This Week: None

Expert: Ben
Team: The Redbacks
Current Ranking: 833
Round 16 Score: 2,147
Trades Remaining: 7
Team Changes This Week: None

ADELAIDE v GEELONG CATS

Adelaide

B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens

HB: Brad Symes, Phil Davis, Simon Goodwin

C: Michael Doughty, Nathan van Berlo, David Mackay

HF: Richard Douglas, Ricky Henderson, Matthew Jaensch

F: Patrick Dangerfield, Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker

R: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly

Int: Jonathon Grffin, Bernie Vince, Andrew McLeod, Rory Sloane

Emg: James Sellar, Jason Porplyzia, Nathan Bock

In: McLeod, Mackay

Out: Tony Armstrong, Jason Porplyzia

• A couple of strong inclusions to Adelaide’s lineup. Mackay is good to see back, although i doubt he is in too many teams now after the period of time he is missed. McLeod is a speculative one – a lot of people thought he would play SANFL this week, so is a chance to be a late out. Then again, you don’t play Rolls Royces on those grounds, so perhaps he will play…
• Armstrong again makes way, showing ball-winning doesn’t guarantee a game. The Porpoise is out again thanks to his average recent form.

Geelong Cats

B: Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Tom Lonergan

HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, James Kelly

C: Andrew Mackie, Cameron Ling, Joel Corey

HF: Paul Chapman, James Podsiadly, Gary Ablett

F: Mathew Stokes, Cameron Mooney, Travis Varcoe

Foll: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel

I/C: Shannon Byrnes, Mark Blake, David Wojcinski, Joel Corey

Emg: Tom Hawkins, Taylor Hunt, Mitch Duncan

In: Corey, Mooney

Out: Mitch Duncan, Darren Milburn (general soreness)

• Corey back, but his missing last week is proof that he is probably a bit too much of a risk this year. Mooney also returns from suspension, whilst Stevie J appears to miss another game. Hawkins will play VFL this week.
• Duncan is omitted, whilst Milburn is the first of the Cats veterans to be rested.

COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA

Collingwood

B: Heath Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo, Ben Reid

HB: Harry O’Brien, Tyson Goldsack, Alan Toovey

C: Sharrod Wellingham, Dane Swan, Jarryd Blair

HF: Luke Ball, Chris Dawes, Leon Davis

F: Dayne Beams, Leigh Brown, Steele Sidebottom

Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas

I/C: Alan Didak, Ben Johnson, Tarkyn Lockyer, Brent Macaffer

Emg: John Anthony, Josh Fraser, Luke Rounds

In: Davis, Macaffer

Out: Travis Cloke (suspended), John Anthony

• Two tall forwards omitted/suspended for Collingwood, yet still no Fraser or Medhurst. Writing on the wall perhaps? Cloke will miss two weeks with suspension, whilst Anthony is simply dropped.
• Davis will return from a neck injury – I wouldn’t be counting on a season-changing game from him though…

St Kilda

B: Zac Dawson, Jason Blake, Sam Gilbert

HB: Jason Gram, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt

C: Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Farren Ray

HF: Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Leigh Montagna

F: Andrew McQualter, Nick Riewoldt, Stephen Milne

Foll: Michael Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Adam Schneider

I/C: Jack Steven, Adam Pattison, Brett Peake, Jarryn Geary

Emg: Ben McEvoy, Sean Dempster, David Armitage

In: Koschitzke, Goddard

Out: Sean Dempster, Ben McEvoy

• Kosi returns, although it is still speculative whether he will play – Lyon said mid-week he would be named regardless and they would see how he pulls up before the game before making the final decision. Goddard also returns from the Flu.
• McEvoy is dropped in favour of Pattison, who played his best game for the club last week – perhaps this could also be read as a sign that Kosi will be a late withdrawal.

HAWTHORN v BRISBANE LIONS

Hawthorn

B: Brent Guerra, Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson

HB: Thomas Murphy, Stephen Gilham, Grant Birchall

C: Clinton Young, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman

HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Michael Osborne

F: Shaun Burgoyne, Jarryd Roughead, Campbell Brown

Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Xavier Ellis

I/C: Jordan Lewis, Carl Peterson, Wayde Skipper, Brendan Whitecross

Emg: Jordan Lisle, Shane Savage, Brad Sewell

In: Mitchell, Whitecross

Out: Brad Sewell, Ryan Schoenmakers

• Two pretty high profile omissions for Hawthorn! As far as I am aware, neither man is injured, so it is certainly a big statement, especially the omission of Sewell, who has certainly been well down on his 2009 efforts.
• Mitchell has been named after missing just one game with a broken finger. His spot in the team is still speculative, so make sure you have emergency cover for him.
• Also, Buddy has been named despite rolling his ankle at training yesterday. They will give him until the first bounce to prove his fitness.

Brisbane Lions

B: Tom Collier, Daniel Merrett, Ashley McGrath

HB: Daniel Rich, Joel Patfull, Travis Johnstone

C: Jack Redden, Tom Rockliff, Justin Sherman

HF: James Polkinghorne, Jonathan Brown, Luke Power

F: Todd Banfield, Brendan Fevola, Brent Staker

Foll: Mitchell Clark, Michael Rischitelli, Jared Brennan

I/C: Matthew Leuenberger, Pearce Hanley, Amon Buchanan, Matt Maguire

Emg: James Hawksley, Aaron Cornelius, Jesse O’Brien

In: Brown, Maguire

Out: Aaron Cornelius, Simon Black (ankle)

• Michael Voss is true to form, bringing injured skipper, Jon Brown back one week early from injury. Definitely a welcome inclusion to plenty of DTs though! Maguire is also named after impressing last week in the QAFL.
• Cornelius, their leading goal-kicker of the past three weeks is the unlucky omission, whilst Black has an ankle injury and will miss.

ESSENDON v WEST COAST

Essendon

B: Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hurley, Heath Hocking

HB: Courtenay Dempsey, Cale Hooker, Brent Stanton

C: Mark McVeigh, Jobe Watson, Kyle Reimers

HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Angus Monfries

F: Patrick Ryder, Jay Neagle, Travis Colyer

Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Jake Melksham, Jason Winderlich

I/C: David Zaharakis, Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Ben Howlett

Emg: Bachar Houli, Brent Prismall, David Myers            

In: Gumbleton, Melksham, Fletcher

Out: Andrew Welsh (groin), Ricky Dyson (knee), Leroy Jetta (suspension)

• Gumby returns after being a late withdrawal last week, as does Melksham and Fletcher who has now served his three week suspension.
• Two injuries and a suspension force the changes with Welsh, Dyson and Jetta those missing out.

West Coast

B: Will Schofield, Eric MacKenzie, Brad Sheppard

HB: Beau Waters, Mitchell Brown, Shannon Hurn

C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Andrew Embley

HF: Andrew Strijk, Josh Kennedy, Brad Ebert

F: Nic Naitanui, Quinten Lynch, Mark LeCras

Foll: Dean Cox, Adam Selwood, Chris Masten

I/C: Ashton Hams, Scott Selwood, Ashley Smith, Lewis Stevenson

Emg: Tim Houlihan, Koby Stevens, Callum Wilson

In: Hurn

Out: Brett Jones

• Hurn makes his way back into the squad after spending two weeks on the sidelines with injury.
• The main news though is the naming of Waters, who was suspected to miss after corking his hamstring. Fortunately, the man is tough as nails and can play through the pain!
• In other good news, all of Smith, Stevenson and Hams keeps their spots.

WESTERN BULLDOGS v PORT ADELAIDE

Western Bulldogs

B: Jarrod Harbrow, Brian Lake, Dale Morris

HB: Ryan Hargrave, Tom Williams, Lindsay Gilbee

C: Ryan Griffen, Matthew Boyd, Nathan Eagleton

HF: Robert Murphy, Andrejs Everitt, Callan Ward

F: Shaun Higgins, Jarrad Grant, Daniel Giansiracusa

Foll: Ben Hudson, Daniel Cross, Adam Cooney

I/C: Jordan Roughead, Easton Wood, Liam Picken, Brad Johnson

Emg: Andrew Hooper, Liam Jones, Brodie Moles

In: Everitt, Eagleton

Out: Brennan Stack (hamstring), Barry Hall (ankle)

• Barry Hall is out with a sore ankle and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks, whilst Stack will miss around 3 weeks.
• Brad Johnson is making the trip to Darwin, whilst Aker will miss again, despite completing his club suspension.

Port Adelaide

B: Paul Stewart, Jackson Trengove, Nick Salter

HB: Steven Salopek, Troy Chaplin, Matt Thomas

C: Kane Cornes, Domenic Cassisi, Travis Boak

HF: Justin Westhoff, Jay Schulz, David Rodan

F: Jason Davenport, Daniel Motlop, Brett Ebert

Foll: Dean Brogan, Danyle Pearce, Tom Logan

I/C: Mitch Banner, Matt Broadbent, Cameron Hitchcock, Jay Nash

Emg: Andrew Moore, Scott Harding, Daniel Stewart

In: Davenport, Nash, Schulz

Out: Atipate Carlile (back), Josh Carr, Daniel Stewart

• OUT: Mark Williams; IN: Matthew Primus
• Davenport is the main inclusion into the Port side this week, besides their new Coach.
• The statement towards youth has already been made by the dropping of Carr and the non-selection of Chad Cornes, despite his fitness.

CARLTON v SYDNEY SWANS

Carlton

B: Aaron Joseph, Michael Jamison, Andrew Walker 

HB: Jordan Russell, Paul Bower, Bryce Gibbs

C: Heath Scotland, Kade Simpson, Kane Lucas

HF: Andrew Carrazzo, Lachie Henderson, Jeff Garlett

F: Chris Yarran, Jarrad Waite, Eddie Betts

Foll: Sam Jacobs, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy

I/C (from): Dennis Armfield, Marcus Davies, David Ellard, Shaun Grigg, Shaun Hampson, Mitch Robinson, Robert Warnock

In: Waite, Grigg, Warnock, Ellard, Davies, Lucas

Out: Ryan Houlihan (knee), Bret Thornton, Setanta O’hAilpin

• Ratten has rung the changes as Carlton with Thornton and O’hAilpin dropped.
• There will likely be even more changes once the final teams have been named with plenty of average performers sitting on the extended bench.
• Waite will return, whilst plenty will be hoping for the selection of Warnock over Hampson after he was one of the Bullants’ best afield last week in the VFL.

Sydney Swans

B: Rhyce Shaw, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Nick Smith

HB: Paul Bevan, Heath Grundy, Tadhg Kennelly

C: Nick Malceski, Brett Kirk, Kieren Jack

HF: Daniel Hannebery, Ryan O’Keefe, Josh Kennedy

F: Ben McGlynn, Adam Goodes, Jarred Moore

Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh

I/C (from): Trent Dennis-Lane, Brett Meredith, Mike Pyke, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner, Lewis Jetta, Jesse White

In: Mattner, White, Jetta

• No outs yet for Sydney, but Mattner, White and Jetta have all been named. Mattner will likely play, whilst Jetta was BOG in the weekend’s VFL game.
• Expect Meredith, White and TDL to make the emergency list.

RICHMOND v NORTH MELBOURNE

Richmond

B: Chris Newman, Will Thursfield, David Astbury

HB: Shane Tuck, Brett Deledio, Daniel Connors

C: Jeromey Webberley, Ben Cousins, Shane Edwards

HF: Matt White, Jack Riewoldt, Richard Tambling

F: Robin Nahas, Tyrone Vickery, Andrew Collins

Foll: Angus Graham, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin

I/C (from): Kelvin Moore, Jake King, Mitch Farmer, Luke McGuane, Dean Polo, Jayden Post, Alex Rance

In: McGuane, Polo, Tambling, Rance, Post, Cousins

Out: Daniel Jackson (suspension), Ben Nason (soreness), Ben Griffiths (shoulder)

• A few forced changes for Richmond after a big win is disappointing, although it at least makes room for the returning Cousins and Tambling. Post will also definitely play, suggesting that McGuane, Polo and Rance are likely to make the emergency list if no other changes are to be made.
• Webberley has also been named which is very good news for his owners.

North Melbourne

B: Michael Firrito, Scott Thompson, Brady Rawlings

HB: Robbie Tarrant, Nathan Grima, Daniel Pratt

C: Leigh Adams, Brent Harvey, Ryan Bastinac

HF: Lindsay Thomas, Lachlan Hansen, Ben Warren

F: Daniel Wells, Todd Goldstein, Sam Wright

Foll: Hamish McIntosh, Andrew Swallow, Levi Greenwood

I/C (from): Ed Lower, Ben Cunnington, Gavin Urquhart, Aaron Edwards, Matt Campbell, Jamie Macmillan, Leigh Harding

In: Harding, Edwards, Grima, Urquhart, Macmillan

Out: Drew Petrie (foot), Cruize Garlett (calf)

New: Jamie Macmillan (Oakleigh Chargers)

• Two outs for North, one of which is Petrie who played a week too early and re-injured his foot AGAIN, meaning he will now miss the remainder of the year. I expect Edwards will step into his forward spot this week when the final teams are named.
• Jamie Macmillan (Not to be confused with Jamie Macmillan-Pittard from Port) has been named for his debut and is a good chance to play. He was the 37th pick in last years draft and is a medium sized midfielder. In the TAC cup last year he averaged 19 disposals and 4 tackles per game whilst playing for the Oakleigh chargers. Then, when playing for Vic Metro in the carnival, he averaged 15 disposals and 5 tackles a game – the best in the squad. He has a good sized body which should be capable of competing at AFL level, although I’d want to see him in action before trading him in.

FREMANTLE v MELBOURNE

Fremantle

B: Dylan Roberton, Alex Silvagni, Kepler Bradley

HB: Matthew de Boer, Luke McPharlin, Roger Hayden

C: Garrick Ibbotson, David Mundy, Nathan Fyfe

HF: Jay van Berlo, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill

F: Adam McPhee, Michael Johnson, Hayden Ballantyne

Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Paul Duffield

I/C (from): Anthony Morabito, Clancee Pearce, Chris Tarrant, Rhys Palmer, Nick Suban, Greg Broughton, Paul Hasleby

In: McPharlin, Broughton, Fyfe, Tarrant

Out: Tim Ruffles

• Some great ins for Freo, with all of McPharlin, Broughton, Fyfe and Tarrant best-22 players. Their inclusion will obviously see a few players missing out, with Pearce, Suban and Hasleby the ones most likely. Certainly keep an eye on the final teams on Friday night if you have any of these guys!

Melbourne

B: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Clint Bartram

HB: Jordie McKenzie, James Frawley, Cameron Bruce

C: Jamie Bennell, Nathan Jones, Brad Green

HF: Lynden Dunn, Jack Watts, Tom Scully

F: Colin Sylvia, Matthew Bate, Liam Jurrah

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Aaron Davey

I/C (from): Joel Macdonald, Kyle Cheney, Paul Johnson, Rohan Bail, Addam Maric, Matthew Warnock, Cale Morton

In: Rohan Bail, Matthew Warnock, Addam Maric, Cale Morton

Out: Jack Trengove (hip)

• A few good inclusions for Melbourne, but one very big out in Trengove – this will certainly hurt plenty of teams, including Melbourne!
• Morton and Bail are named on the bench and a good chance to make the cut with Macdonald, Cheney and Johnson all skating on thin ice.

Dear Footy Tragics,

With so many teams “complete” by Round 16, many DT coaches are asking what to do with those surplus trades over the last seven weeks of the season. At this point of the season, most teams start to focus on private league glory, as they come to realise that the car is out of reach, except for the top 300 teams overall. This week I talk about what to do with those remaining trades and how many you should keep for Rounds 19 – 22, DT finals!

My strategy, which has served me well in previous seasons, is to retain four, possibly even five trades for the finals. Assuming I finish top four, my trades over the last four weeks will be used in the following manner:

• Week 1 – Use two trades searching for a win and a rest in Week 2. I look for a two for one trade to bring in an absolute gun;
• Week 2 – Hold fire (assuming you win Week 1);
• Week 3 – Use one to two trades (the Preliminary Final is arguably harder to win than the GF, because teams often use their remaining trades in the lead up to this final). Look for another two for one trade, or simply replace an injured or rested premium.
• Week 4 – Use one trade to replace an injured or rested premium.

If you finish 5 – 8, you must go for broke because there is no second chance.

Do not underestimate injuries or restings in the latter part of the season. We must remember that Mark Thompson and Ross Lyon are not concerned with our DT’s. If Gary Ablett, Paul Chapman, Jimmy Bartel, Leigh Montagna, Brendon Goddard, Lenny Hayes or Nick Dal Santo need a rest before the AFL finals, they will be given one between Rounds 19 – 22! Let’s not forget Round 19 last season, when St. Kilda rested all of their stars in the one week against Hawthorn, week 1 of DT finals.

The AFL season is long and brutal and all players at this point of the season are carrying various ailments and niggling injuries. AFL premierships are won in September, not August and clubs want their stars peaking during the finals series (AFL finals, not DT finals)! Don’t fall for the trap of thinking your current starting lineup of 22 players in Round 16 will be the same 22 players who get the job done for you in Rounds 19, 20, 21 and 22.

One week is a long time in football, which makes seven weeks an eternity. You’ve been warned.

Good luck!

Pearce Hanley – Brisbane ($118,600, BAC, Break even: -22)

First two games: 32 vs. Freo (Round 7) and 80 vs. St.Kilda = 56 avg.

Brisbane’s Irish project didn’t look too bad on the weekend. He had one game earlier in the year against Freo where he looked completely lost, but he came back into the team last week and the only time he looked like he had no idea what to do was during the three quarter time melee.

Voss could look to get a few games into him in the run home with Brisbane’s season not looking like it’s going anywhere too fast (well, maybe down). You couldn’t be too sure of his job security though, but I actually think he’s a bit less of a speculative Irish experiment – he might not turn out too bad. However, if you really need a cheap back option you can still get Andrew Strijk for $2500 less and he has a much better chance at playing the year out, so despite having one price rise I couldn’t recommend Hanley over Strijk.

Jarryd Blair – Collingwood ($94,500, MID, Break even: -69)

First two games: 67 vs. West Coast and 74 vs. Port = 70.5 avg.

I was always a big fan of Blair. I wasn’t sure if he was “AFL material” but that assessment was probably wrapped up in silly pre-conceived notions about height and build. I was still hoping that someone would give him a chance somewhere and Collingwood gave him that chance on their rookie list (breaking the mold of midget on ballers to win Morrish Medals, but miss out on making an AFL list).

Blair is a tough midfielder who will get in there and do the grunt work. He’s got good discipline and has been given a couple of tagging jobs so far, but it also hasn’t stopped him from putting up respectable enough DT numbers. Collingwood don’t have much of an injury list (only Maxwell and Dick of note), so he’s doing well to be in their team right now. I’d tentatively recommend him, as he’s playing a role and doing well so far. If you really need a bit of cash or even just some rookie coverage in the midfield there might not be much more coming along.

Trent Dennis-Lane – Sydney ($89,500, FWD, Break even: -27)

First two games: 44 vs. Richmond and 51 vs. North = 47.5 avg.

The mature aged recruit from Subiaco was set to be one of the most popular DT forwards at the start of the year, but his pre-season was a bit of a fizzer and then he copped an injury early in the NAB Cup. He didn’t look quite there in his first game against Richmond, but was a little bit more comfortable against North on the weekend.

The worry I would have with TDL is that he’s got his spot in the side with Jetta and Rohan currently out of the side. Rohan is listed as having a one week ankle injury, but apparently Jetta had a ripping game for Swans reserves on the weekend. In Sydney’s run to the finals they’ll have a few forwards to come back into the side (Bradshaw, Jetta, White, Rohan) so it could be a completely different looking Swans forward line. There’s a few too many variables with his job security for my liking. Even though he didn’t do too badly against the Roos there’s an entire forward line structure not in the Swans 22 at the moment. I wouldn’t put a line through him, by any means, but you’d have to be wary of that.

This week I wanted to spend a bit more time discussing a theory that I broached on the site a few weeks ago - and this is the theory of trading senior players onto your bench. The thought process behind this concept is the trading in of regular best-22 players into your side priced around the $180,000 - $250,000 price point, with the intent to actually keep them on the bench than actually play them in your own best-22. This theory sounds strange at first, but let me explain - with finals fast approaching, plenty of coaches not only have very few trades left, but plenty are also looking at competing in a finals campaign with very poor bench cover. Unfortunately, at this time of year there are no rookies debuting – ideally, you’d still have a Trengove, Martin or Scully on your midfield bench, a Rockliff, Hitchcock or Henderson in your forwards and a Nason, Silvagni or Maguire in defence. But I’d bet my bottom dollar that there aren’t too many coaches with a trustworthy bench come finals time.

Personally, I have completed my team - in every spot on the field there is a player whom I consider a keeper of at least medium-grade. All my mids are premiums, as are my defenders. My forwards are OK, but in 2010 Chapman has been about the only real premium option, so I’m going to have to be satisfied with mid-tier players. However, my benches don’t read such a pretty story; In defence I am trusting in regular games to Hams and Webberley, in my forward line I have Hitchcock who is fast running out of legs and form, and my mids are appalling – Shuey and Stevens – neither have played the past two games and Shuey is unlikely to be sighted again this year.

So this is where my theory comes into play - my thought is to trade in a mid-priced player, likely underpriced due to recent injury or a brief drop in form, and this player can be used as cover if one of my best-22 players do become injured. It must be noted though that this MUST be a best-22 player you are trading in, NOT an improving rookie who still may be on the verge of selection! Whilst many players may see this trade for bench cover as a waste, personally I believe it may save you trades come finals. Essentially, in finals, a one week suspension or injury to ANY player, whether it Paul Chapman or Beau Waters is just about necessary of a trade – you can’t risk keeping a player only to be bailed out by 20 points, hence making any remaining trades redundant anyway. Therefore, in my scenario I could put Chapman or Waters on the bench for a week, knowing I have a reasonably trustworthy score to come from my mid-priced benchwarmer. He only needs to be used for a week, then the following round Chappy can come back in to score 140 points – whereas if I’d traded Chapman to (for example) Pavlich, he is unlikely to score near the realms of Chapman, meaning I would be missing out on plenty of valuable points come my next finals game.

Obviously everyone is different and this is a strategy that may work for some but not others, but I thought it certainly one worth discussing. This could be the perfect solution for coaches worried about late season resting from the top clubs like Geelong and St.Kilda. This theory also really lends itself to duel-position players. Essentially, you could pick a DP mid/forward in the midfield and then have the ability to swap him between the midfield and forward line as it suits (because let’s be honest, you surely have at least a few DP forwards!).

Below I have listed my best choices between the $180k – $250k price range. I look forward to hearing your comments on the theory and whether it applies to your team and whether it is something you may consider.

Defenders:

Chad Cornes – $246,100, Avg. 62.86 (DP Back/Mid): It is probably bad timing to suggest Chad as he missed this last week with suspension, but he should be back this week to play the Dogs. Whilst his form hasn’t been amazing this year, he is still very capable of scoring reasonably and it will also be interesting to see where the new coach does play him. Defence is his best position, so if playing here he could average about 60-70 points.

Tadhg Kennelly – $217,100, Avg. 68.42: Kennelly hasn’t been nearly as bad as his price reflects – in fact, his awfully low price is almost exclusively thanks to the early injury he sustained in round 9 which saw him finish the game on zero points. He subsequently dropped over $85,000 in three weeks thanks to the rolling average. But after scoring 119 points on the weekend he looks back on his way up.

Midfielders:

Chance Bateman – $248,500, Avg. 65.3: Chance has not been nearly as good a dream teamer in 2010 as he has been in previous seasons, almost exclusively thanks to his role as a tagger. I do still like him for his price tag however, as if he is ever let off the tagger chain he is capable of scoring some very large numbers. Also, he has had a very stop-start season, missing several games through injury and suspension, so part of his scoring woes may be able to be attributed to a lack of consistency.

Chris Masten – $228,200, Avg. 57.62: I’m actually not a huge fan of Masten as a dream teamer as he handballs way to much, but right now, and for the purposes suggested, he does present as a good option. He is two games back from injury now, so is building to a larger game-time. He has scored lowly these past couple of weeks thanks to WCE giving him much smaller roles as he readjusts to AFL pace after his injury. In the run home he should be capable of averaging around 70 points – enough to justify him for the purposes mentioned.

Forwards:

Leon Davis – $236,500, Avg. 62.69 (DP Mid/For): Missed last week with a neck injury, but should return against the Saints. He has had a poor season by his standards, playing exclusively as a forward. He just looks like he is lacking confidence in himself when the ball is in his hands – although he does look a lot like a player who may only need one big game to have a sudden re-emergence. He is certainly not in much form, but he can still score OK and his DP status certainly makes him tempting.

Brendan Fevola – $223,900 Avg. 64: Fev has battled injuries all year and was finally forced to sit out in round 14. He returned against the Saints this week and actually looked to be moving a bit better, although still dropping a few sitters and lacking much chase. Don’t expect a re-emergence of the Fev from 2008/2009, but when Brown returns next week he may find himself able to kick a few more goals when not double teamed.