Footy Tragic

Hawthorn vs Essendon:

Looking Good:

• Lance Franklin: The most talked about individual game of the weekend was Franklin’s, with his two amazing runs down the wing in the last quarter the highlights. He is looking so much more confident in his body and his form this year and could be a really good trade option for those with a weak forward line.
• Jobe Watson: Was especially influential in the second half when the game turned towards the Bombers, despite a tough tag from Sewell. Watson is working just as hard outside the contests these days and it is helping his DT scoring exponentially.
• Michael Osborne: Played more time through the midfield this week and played with plenty of spark through the four quarters. Was one of Hawthorn’s best in delivering the ball inside-50.

Disappointing:

• Michael Hurley: After a very good game last week, Hurley again failed to deliver much fire-power to the Dons. He does try very hard, and it must be remembered he is only in his second year, despite his great finish to 2009.
• Chance Bateman: Played a tagging role on Stanton and it killed his own scoring. He was also concussed in the last quarter, however strangely can’t remember how it happened.
• Luke Hodge: Took a knock to the knee early and it really slowed down his explosiveness. He was also heavily tagged by Welsh who gave him no room, despite the injury. The injury fortunately, doesn’t look serious enough to make him miss any games.

Blip on the Radar:

• Beau Muston: Those who saw the game would have been pretty impressed by Muston in his defensive forward role, but his score of 46 was a clear sign that he should not be a dream team target.

Fremantle vs Carlton:

Looking Good:

• Aaron Sandilands: When Kruezer was injured in the first quarter, big Sandi stepped it up a notch, dominating the much younger Sam Jacobs. He came one hitout short of the magical 50 mark, also clocking up 19 disposals and a bonus goal.
• Michael Barlow: Played more around the half-forward flanks, but it didn’t hinder his ball-winning abilities at all. He racked up another 30 possessions, as well as a very good four goals.
• Andrew Walker: Was one of the Blues best as a rebounder off the half-back line. He has been playing this role really well this year, and most importantly, consistently – he reached 27 disposals with 12 marks.

Disappointing:

• Heath Scotland: Second week in a row he has been down on form, only reaching 20 disposals, despite still playing through the midfield. The Blues had very little lift or form through the first three quarters and Scotland helped tell that tale.
• Alex Silvagni: Played in defence on Henderson and only had 6 disposals – his lowest of the year. He shouldn’t lose his spot, but the arrival of Roberton may take some of his kicks.
• Matthew Kruezer: Landed awkwardly in the first quarter and it was all bad news for the rising star – it was confirmed on Sunday that he has ruptured his ACL and will miss the remainder of the year.

Blip on the Radar:

• Garrick Ibbotson: In his 50^th game, seemed to attract more ball than usual, playing in the backline. He plays shut-down roles these days, so occasional big scores like this one are more due to over-possessing the ball than a role change.

Brisbane vs Richmond:

Looking Good:

• Jack Redden: It’s not surprising this kid has now played a couple of very good games in a row after a great breakout season in 2009. Unfortunately, it’s only been the past couple of weeks we have seen this promised form after a slowish start to the year. He is a great in-and-under players and looks to be one of the few Lions who are trying to lead a team quickly falling apart.
• Angus Graham: Has been thriving this past month as Richmond’s number one ruckman – once again he produced the goods, racking up 23 disposals and 12 marks for the game.
• Daniel Connors: In his second game back from suspension, Connors was again a highlight for the Tigers. He looks very dedicated to paying the club back after his earlier indiscretions and is certainly going the right way about it with a strong 23 possession game.

Disappointing:

• Brendan Fevola: In his 200^th game, Fev had an absolute stinker. Despite being the target of 13 Brisbane inside-50s, he only capitalised with the one goal. In Vossy’s presser afterwards, strong intimations came that no-one was safe, even Fevola – if I were him I’d be pretty concerned about my spot in the team right about now.

• Trent Cotchin: He is a class player but just can’t handle the tag – this time, the attention of Sheldon kept him to just the 46 points.
• Ben Griffiths: I only had to bring it up as it is the first time (which I can remember) that this has happened – thanks to Griffith’s first three scores of 19, 15 and 19, could he be the first $89k player to go DOWN in price after his first three games??

Blip on the Radar:

• Matt White: White played well around the half-forward line, and he presents himself as a good player, but he currently looks much more like a player who will break out in 2011 than in the latter half of this year. In a young team and consistently thrown between roles, inconsistent scores can be expected.

Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne:

Looking Good:

• Brent Harvey: Harvey was best afield for the Roos and Port had no answers for him, with neither Kane Cornes or Cassisi capable of shutting him down. Harvey is a top DT choice, however his main flaw is his ability to pull out the odd mega shocker – his ability to break the tag this week and the Roos good form are both good signs though!
• Jay Schulz: Booted seven goals as the most dominant forward on the ground. His form has been decent this year, but seven goals was totally out of the box from what we should typically expect of Schultz.
• Lachlan Hansen: Is starting to become accustomed to his new role up forward and his press in the papers didn’t seem to do him too badly either as he kicked five goals on Chad Cornes. I am still a sceptic, but he may not be as poor an option as I have originally suggested.

Disappointing:

• Lindsay Thomas: After his mega game last week, Thomas returned to his usual form with a standard 1.3 goals. Proof that you shouldn’t jump on a player after just one good game.
• Jackson Trengove: Second week in a row he has stunk it up now, which is unfortunate, as the past two weeks are about the only ones he will have been needed all season thanks to him covering for plenty of teams who have the injured Hille.
• Mitch Banner: Many were relieved to see him return, but a low game time saw him feature only a little in the stats. Only finished with the 15 disposals, well down on what he made us expect earlier in the year.

Blip on the Radar:

• Jacob Surjan: Surjan has been having a good year, but he is your typical tough-nut defender who does more one-percenters than he has disposals. In this game he held Lindsay Thomas tight and was allowed to run off him on occasion – something that won’t be allowed by his opponents too frequently this year.

Western Bulldogs vs West Coast:

Looking Good:

• Daniel Giansiracusa: Gia played a very good game again as a permanent forward, kicking two goals. He is still learning the role, but his leading up the flanks is getting stronger and he was the Bulldogs best player in the first half. Fortunately, he is also building on his consistency – something that has been queried so far this season.
• Beau Waters: Another strong game in the backline where he played loose man for the first three quarters. He drifts around and gets so much of the ball – he also uses it pretty well too so his teammates will continue to trust him with it. His role also sees him drifting into the midfield on occasions – his game could be well likened to Malceski or Duffield.
• Jarrod Harbrow: Played further afield thanks to the lack of Eagle small forwards and he played very well. However, I wouldn’t be expecting a permanent shift thanks to his great form to date as a defender.

Disappointing:

• Josh Kennedy: Just couldn’t exert any influence on the contest, only kicking the one goal through a good mark in the third term. Was very well held by Morris – also, the delivery from West Coast’s backline was shocking, certainly not helping his case.
• Brad Johnson: This was Johno’s first game back from an achilles injury and he certainly doesn’t look 100% – I predict a few DTers will look at Johnson’s price and get a bit excited, but already he has proven this year that he is no longer capable of the sort of scoring that was expected of him a few years ago. Also, his body can no longer be trusted.
• Barry Hall: When Jack Riewoldt kicked 10 goals against the WCE backline last week, Hall owners may have been excited about his prospects in this game. Unfortunately, he could only make it to three goals for the game.

Blip on the Radar:

• Will Schofield: Schofield played his game on both Lake and Johnson – two players who hate standing still and love venturing far away from their direct opponent, styles which allowed Schofield to be left alone plenty of times through the game and attract plenty of the ball as loose man. Whilst he is progressing well as a defender, he is not the right choice for dream team.

Expert: Dan
Team: Hank Scorpio EDT
Current Ranking: 4,618
Round 13 Score: 2,056
Trades Remaining: 7
Team Changes This Week: None

Expert: Toby
Team: Fiora’s Hardnuts
Current Ranking: 2,377
Round 13 Score: 2,033
Trades Remaining: 6
Team Changes This Week:
In: Gary Ablett, Koby Stevens
Out: Brodie Moles, Ben Howlett

Expert: Ben
Team: The Redbacks
Current Ranking: 1,082
Round  13 Score: 2,012
Trades Remaining: 8
Team Changes This Week: None

• And don’t forget to read today’s Tuney’s Tuition article!

HAWTHORN v ESSENDON

Hawthorn

B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Thomas Murphy

HB: Grant Birchall, Ben Stratton, Rick Ladson

C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman

HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne

F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Ryan Schoenmakers

Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell

I/C: Xavier Ellis, Beau Muston, Wayde Skipper, Clinton Young

Emg: Carl Peterson, Liam Shiels, Brendan Whitecross

In: Bateman, Young

Out: Brendan Whitecross, Carl Peterson

• Peterson is back out of the squad, with Bateman back from suspension and Young returns from his quad injury.

Essendon

B: Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker, Henry Slattery

HB: Heath Hocking, Tayte Pears, Mark McVeigh

C: Jarrod Atkinson, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton

HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Leroy Jetta

F: David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley, Sam Lonergan

Foll: Patrick Ryder, Jason Winderlich, Jake Melksham

I/C: Brent Prismall, Andrew Welsh, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Tom Bellchambers

Emg: David Myers, Bachar Houli, Courtenay Dempsey

In: Prismall, Atkinson, Hooker

Out: Ricky Dyson , Courtenay Dempsey , David Myers

• Another raft of changes at the Dons – Prismall makes his way back into the squad, with defenders Atkinson and Hooker.
• Three running backmen have all been dropped, with Dyson, Dempsey and Myers now finding themselves on the outer.

CARLTON v FREMANTLE

Carlton

B: Aaron Joseph, Michael Jamison, Paul Bower

HB: Jordan Russell, Andrew Walker, Bryce Gibbs

C: Kane Lucas, Kade Simpson, Heath Scotland

HF: Marc Murphy, Jarrad Waite, Jeff Garlett

F: Eddie Betts, Lachie Henderson, Bret Thornton

Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Chris Judd, Andrew Carrazzo

I/C: Richard Hadley, Ryan Houlihan, Sam Jacobs, Chris Yarran

Emg: Dennis Armfield, Shaun Grigg, Mitch Robinson

In: Bower, Henderson, Yarran, Lucas

Out: Setanta O’hAilpin (calf), Dennis Armfield, Steven Browne, Mitch Robinson

• O’hAipin is out with a calf – Henderson will replace his spot in the forward line, despite speculation that Hampson will find his way back into the squad.
• Lucas is a good return for any with depleted midfields, whilst Bower is the biggest inclusion of the lot, a move which Brett Ratten believes will push Gibbs permanently into the forward line.

Fremantle

B: Nathan Fyfe, Chris Tarrant, Kepler Bradley

HB: Antoni Grover, Adam McPhee, Roger Hayden

C: Garrick Ibbotson, David Mundy, Anthony Morabito

HF: Jay van Berlo, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill

F: Ryan Crowley, Alex Silvagni, Hayden Ballantyne

Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow, Paul Duffield

I/C: Dylan Roberton, Rhys Palmer, Paul Hasleby, Matthew de Boer

Emg: Tim Ruffles, Clancee Pearce, Jesse Crichton

In: Palmer, de Boer, Roberton

Out: Byron Schammer, Nick Suban, Zac Clarke

• Palmer returns after being a late withdrawal against the Saints, whilst Roberton is back to play his third game of the year.
• Not surprisingly, Schammer has been dropped after his first game of the year last week, but the surprise omission is Suban who hasn’t been able to recapture his strong 2009 form.

BRISBANE LIONS v RICHMOND

Brisbane Lions

B: James Hawksley, Daniel Merrett, Andrew Raines

HB: Travis Johnstone, Joel Patfull, Troy Selwood

C: Luke Power, Daniel Rich, Tom Rockliff

HF: Tom Collier, Brent Staker, Justin Sherman

F: Todd Banfield, Brendan Fevola, Jared Brennan

Foll: Mitchell Clark, Michael Rischitelli, Simon Black

I/C: Sam Sheldon, Jack Redden, Amon Buchanan, Matthew Leuenberger

Emg: Aaron Cornelius, Pearce Hanley, Jesse O’Brien

No change

• No injuries this week for the Lions, and as already discussed, Brown will be missing for the next few weeks as his rests a hip complaint that has been troubling him all season.

Richmond

B: Chris Newman, Luke McGuane, Will Thursfield

HB: Shane Tuck, Brett Deledio, Daniel Connors

C: Ben Cousins, Daniel Jackson, Shane Edwards

HF: Matt White, Jack Riewoldt, Ben Nason

F: Richard Tambling, Ben Griffiths, David Astbury

Foll: Angus Graham, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin

I/C: Mitch Farmer, Tyrone Vickery, Jake King, Andrew Collins

Emg: Jeromey Webberley, Jayden Post, David Gourdis

In: Will Thursfield

Out: Kelvin Moore (leg)

• No huge changes, but it is disappointing to see Webberley not included in the final squad, despite some good form at Coburg on the weekend.

NORTH MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE

North Melbourne

B: Michael Firrito, Scott Thompson, Brady Rawlings

HB: Scott McMahon, Nathan Grima, Daniel Pratt

C: Jack Ziebell, Cruize Garlett, Ryan Bastinac

HF: Ben Cunnington, Lachlan Hansen, Brent Harvey

F: Daniel Wells, Todd Goldstein, Lindsay Thomas

Foll: Hamish McIntosh, Andrew Swallow, Levi Greenwood

I/C: Ed Lower, Matt Campbell, Ben Warren, Sam Wright, Jamie MacMillan, Aaron Edwards, Gavin Urquhart

In: Edwards, Urquhart, MacMillan

• Urquart is a possible inclusion after several good weeks for Werribee in the VFL – he just needs to find some good form at AFL level as he does have stacks of talent.
• MacMillan is named on the extended bench for a possible debut – he is a medium midfielder with a good workrate around the ground – he averaged 5 tackles a game in the TAC cup – the highest of all players in the Vic Metro squad. He doesn’t get stacks of the ball but uses it well, meaning he will unlikely be a huge DT prospect straight away.

Port Adelaide

B: Jacob Surjan, Alipate Carlile, Troy Chaplin

HB: Paul Stewart, Chad Cornes, Matt Thomas

C: Kane Cornes, Domenic Cassisi, Travis Boak

HF: Jason Davenport, Jack Trengove, David Rodan

F: Cameron Hitchcock, Daniel Motlop, Tom Logan

Foll: Dean Brogan, Danyle Pearce, Josh Carr

I/C: Daniel Stewart, Matthew Lobbe, Danny Meyer, Mitchell Banner, Cameron Cloke, Jay Nash, Jay Schulz

In: Cloke, Schulz, Meyer, Stewart, Banner, Carr

Out: Steven Salopek (shoulder), Brett Ebert (ankle), Hamish Hartlett (hamstring)

• Salopek is out with a shoulder injury, whilst Hartlett is out AGAIN with a hamstring injury – the kid has no luck!
• Banner is an exciting inclusion (albeit on an extended bench), as well as Stewart who could help secure a few depleted forward lines this week.

WEST COAST  v WESTERN BULLDOGS
West Coast

B: Andrew Strijk, Eric MacKenzie, Will Schofield

HB: Beau Waters, Beau Wilkes, Shannon Hurn

C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Brad Sheppard

HF: Adam Selwood, Mitchell Brown, Andrew Embley

F: Ben McKinley, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras

Foll: Dean Cox, Brad Ebert, Koby Stevens

I/C: Bradd Dalziell, Ashton Hams, Quinten Lynch, Patrick McGinnity, Nic Naitanui, Scott Selwood, Ashley Smith

In: Lynch, Adam Selwood, Hams, Strijk, Smith, Stevens

Out: Mark Nicoski (shoulder), Brett Jones, Lewis Stevenson

• Some huge changes at the Eagles – the only name of note who is out is Stevenson, but there are some huge DT inclusions in the form of Hams, Selwood and the debuts of Strijk, Smith and Stevens.
• Strijk is a mature-aged rookie and is a running defender who has averaged 19 disposals a game in his 2009 WAFL season (he has been playing in the WAFL for four years, intimating he will be capable at AFL level). This is what Dan said about Strijk on Wednesday; “Strijk is a beautiful kick, who could be used at either end of the ground.”
• Smith is also a running defender (Note: he is named on the extended bench) who has also been playing WAFL seniors for the past two years. He is a very fast player and averaged 13 disposals a game in his 13 senior appearances last year.
• Koby Stevens is the most exciting of the three, as Dan commented this week; “SURELY he gets a game in that midfield this week. He’s been in great form in the WAFL and they might as well blood a few more players. The most likely and best downgrade target remaining as far as I’m concerned. Personally, I didn’t trade Gysberts in because I’m waiting for Stevens.” He is a great in-and-under player who also loves to tackle. In his 8 TAC games in 2009, he averaged 25 disposals and 3.5 tackles, suggesting he could be a great DT prospect, and as Dan has suggested, the last great white hope of 2010.

Western Bulldogs

B: Jarrod Harbrow, Brian Lake, Easton Wood

HB: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Lindsay Gilbee

C: Ryan Griffen, Matthew Boyd, Liam Picken

HF: Josh Hill, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson

F: Jarrad Grant, Barry Hall, Daniel Giansiracusa

Foll: Ben Hudson, Daniel Cross, Adam Cooney

I/C: Will Minson, Nathan Eagleton, Brennan Stack, Ryan Hargrave, Brodie Moles, Andrejs Everitt, Sam Reid

In: Hargrave, Everitt, Reid, Johnson

Out: Tom Williams (hamstring)

• Hargrave back in is welcome relief to many, whilst Johnson is probably a bigger inclusion to the Doggies than to dream teams. Still, it may be worth keeping an eye on his form, although his age should probably deter most.

View Grechatano’s Team
Round 12 Score: 2,085
Current Overall Ranking: 43,875
Trades Left: 6
Remaining Salary Cap: $202,500

Dear Grechatano’s,

Thank you for submitting your team.

Having already used 14 trades this year, your team is nearing completion. Of the 30 players in your squad, the only player I would be trading out this week is Matt Maguire. Maguire has served his purpose brilliantly this year, averaging 75 points per game and rising in price from $101,700 to $286,600. Maguire has without doubt been one of the most valuable DT selections in 2010, but there is no place for sentiment in football and it is clearly time for him to go. He is out for another 3 weeks with his foot injury and given his past injury concerns with this foot, combined with the fact he is not a keeper, it’s time for him to go.

MY RECOMMENDATION THIS WEEK:

OUT: Matt Maguire ($286,600)

IN: Heath Scotland ($413,200)

I rate Scotland as a high quality player and the bonus with Scotland is that you can insert him into your backline, despite the fact he plays as a midfielder. Scotland has averaged 101 points per game in 2010 and he shows no signs of slowing down. Scotland is the 3^rd highest ranked defender behind Luke Hodge and Brendon Goddard in terms of total points scored in 2010, illustrious company indeed!

I recommend holding onto Jonathan Brown, despite the fact he is out for 4 weeks (3 games with the split round) with an abdominal strain. Brown when fit is a definite keeper and you need him for the finals. It seems pointless to trade him out and then bring him back in later in the season, using two valuable trades in the process.

For the 138,060 teams with Jonathan Brown in your side, I see no point trading him out unless you are currently sitting inside the top 500 teams overall and gunning for the car. If you are outside the top 500, you have no chance of winning the car because you are too far behind the leader, so it’s time to focus on winning your private league.

For those following my team on the site this year, my team has now slipped out of contention for the car after I played with only 19 players last weekend (a record low for me). Never before have I had three late withdrawals from the same position (Brown, Sylvia and Didak)! It’s all my own fault though because my horrible selection of Relton Roberts prior to Round 1 has come back to bite me in the worst possible way. My other non playing forward was Shaun Higgins. This example highlights the importance of having quality cover! Needless to say, my focus is now on private league glory and I’ll have another crack at the car in 2011!

Good luck!

This week I more want to talk about rookie strategy going into the run home. Given the relative ease with the salary cap this year, some teams could already be finished, with those last few trades saved for injuries. For those guys, rookie strategy shouldn’t matter too much and well done to you for being done by this stage!

For those still trying to make their last upgrades it’s frustrating, because the cupboard is quite bare for downgrade options. I’ll have a quick yarn about the less than inviting options this week before previewing a few options that could bob up in the run home.

Ricky Henderson – Adelaide ($94,500, FWD/BAC, Break even: -12)

First two games: 33 and 51 = 42 avg.

The big basketball project is developing quite nicely. He’s an impact player at AFL level and his pace is a good asset. Maybe he’s some silly chance of staying in the rabble that is Adelaide’s 22, but for the most part he might just be getting a taste at the highest level and left to develop in the SANFL. As far as I’m concerned, scoring potential doesn’t mean as much as job security at this stage in the game, but for what it’s worth I wouldn’t expect him capable of scoring much more than the 51 he got on the weekend.

Taylor Hunt – Geelong ($94,500, BAC, Break even: -54)

First two games: 53 and 73 = 63 avg.

I really like Hunt. I also like a Geelong half back line reading Taylor Hunt – Taylor – Hunt. Just for laughs…

He reminds me a lot of David Wojcinski. He’s super fast, doesn’t have much of a brain but will put his head down and run like the wind. He looks to be playing a more controlled sort of game at AFL level and like all Cats, he’s scoring pretty well. However, the Cats have quite a few outs and I can’t see anyone but him being the first man out (except West for Ottens, but that’s a specific ruck change). Hunt is just warming someone elses seat.

Ben Griffiths – Richmond ($89,500, FWD, Break even: 32)

First two games: 19 and 15 = 17 avg.

Probably the best job security of the lot this week. Richmond are playing the kids, he’s highly rated down there BUT in two games he is yet to score over 20 points and he was incredibly injury prone as a junior. His shoulders have been particularly troublesome. Unfortunately, the one rookie that I can see getting a few games will give you next to no points coverage and is a huge injury risk.

Has a standard priced rookie ever gone down in price after his first price change? Griffiths would need to almost double his highest score just to reach break even!

ON THE HORIZON

Here’s a few names to look out for over the next few weeks…hopefully!

BACKS

Tyson Slattery – Essendon – could be nearing selection. Burns the ball a bit coming off half back, but is a pretty neat player.

Andrew Strijk – West Coast – Strijk is a beautiful kick, who could be used at either end of the ground. There are rumours on Eagles forums suggesting that he is battling groin problems though. If the injury rumours are true it’s a bit of a worry, but I’ll be looking extra close at him if he gets a game.

MIDFIELDERS

Claye Beams – Brisbane – brother of Collingwood’s Dayne, has been impressing for the Suncoast Lions in the Queensland league. A bit like Dayne, tough on baller, but doesn’t have a sleeve tattoo.

Ryan Harwood – Brisbane – also a tough on baller, who has actually been a bit less impressive, but came to the club considered one of the more ready made prospects from the 2009 National Draft. If given games he could score handily and I reckon Voss would like his style.

Marcus Marigliani – Essendon – would be a great DT’er if he can crack a game. I’m not sure if he is close to getting a game, but he’d be a perfect downgrade option. He’s a tough, strong bodied, mature aged midfielder.

Ben Speight – North Melbourne – I’ve noticed him named in the best players in the VFL a few times, but haven’t seen any of his games this year. He’s a short, but strong body midfielder with no particular stand out skills, but a good well rounded game. If he can snag games I can see him fitting playing solidly enough to hold his spot.

Braydon Norris – North Melbourne – elite endurance and is a hard working midfielder. Once again, no particular tricks other than his hard work rate – sounds a lot like a Shinboner. Has been named emergency a couple of times for North.

James Strauss – Melbourne – has already played two games, but didn’t go well. He struggled with kicking and decision making at AFL level, but believe me, he is a cracking kick of the ball. It’d be good for his development to get a few late games and he was named in the bests for Casey last weekend.

Koby Stevens – West Coast – SURELY he gets a game in that midfield this week. He’s been in great form in the WAFL and they might as well blood a few more players. The most likely and best downgrade target remaining as far as I’m concerned. Personally, I didn’t trade Gysberts in because I’m waiting for Stevens.

FORWARDS

Jack Gunston – Adelaide – lightly framed, young key forward (doesn’t sound great for DT) but then again, so is Nat Fyfe and Jarrad Grant. Gunston has a ripping set of hands and is super talented. He’s very raw, but with Adelaide doing so bad they might want to expose him to a bit more AFL this year. Has already played one game.

Matthew Jaensch – Adelaide – has actually played three games and had a price rise, but is still priced at less than $130K and has a break even of -35. Only out of the team due to a  club suspension, but has the talent to play the season out. FWIW, had 28 touches in the SANFL on the weekend – would’ve been 128 DT points, so he can score!

Luke Breust – Hawthorn – creative goal sneak with great footy sense. I rate him, hopefully Hawthorn do too.

Troy Taylor – Richmond – another one that could get games in the run home. Seems to be popular with the coaches at Richmond and they are heavily playing the kids. I wouldn’t expect huge scoring out of him. Richmond just seem to be a good team for rookies this year, but I wouldn’t feel too safe with him on the bench.

Trent Dennis-Lane – Sydney – a lot of us have been hanging out for TDL. Mature aged goal sneak, originally from WA. I reckon he could be a bit overhyped. Everyone is hanging out for him and it seems to be a foregone conclusion for many that they’ll trade him in when he gets a game, but small forward can be a DT graveyard. If he’s doing well enough though, he should keep his spot in that Swans forward line if he starts getting games.

Relton Roberts – Richmond – LOL JK, he sucks.

This week I will look at two forwards who each started the season under $330,000, averaged less than 80 points for the first 6-8 rounds of the season, yet have clocked up an impressive 111 point average over the past five rounds. So perhaps I am jumping on these two dynamos a couple of weeks to late, but sometimes it is too hard to ignore players in such breakout form. The two players I talk of are Richmond’s new saviour, Jack Riewoldt, and Adelaide’s own rising star, Richard Douglas.

Richard Douglas:

It’s fair to say that the first time Douglas scored a ton against Richmond in round seven I was a skeptic, in fact I singled him out as a ‘blip on the radar’ in my Weekend Wrap. However, in all but one game since then he has scored at least 115 points, becoming Adelaide’s most consistent and in-form player. From rounds 1 to 6, Douglas was playing predominantly as a forward with cameo roles through the midfield – in this time he averaged just 63 points. However, since round seven and his more permanent move to the midfield, he has averaged a very good 111 points.

The beginning to Douglas’ career has been a slow one – he is already 23 years of age and is in his fifth year of AFL football. His early career has been played mainly on the half-forward flanks, often as a defensive forward. His strength is in-close football, a fact that has helped him to an impressive tackle average, as well as a good ability to win his own ball in a contested situation. As a junior, Douglas was a midfielder with a good ability to find the pill – something which he finally looks to be matching at AFL level. I have personally found Douglas a very one-dimensional footballer over his first few years – he is good at the grunt work, but has shown very little flair and has never threatened to rip a game open. Things have certainly changed lately, and I have been watching him closely – his addition to Adelaide’s midfield is mostly due to their depth of injuries, however I cannot imagine Neil Craig moving him from here, even if they do all return.

He suddenly has a bit more excitement to his game, winning his own ball and running it up the wings – he is breaking through packs and delivering the ball into the forward line as if this has been his role for five years, not five games. He is also yet to gain the attention of taggers – lately, Thompson has been the target, whilst McLeod and Vince also find themselves being shut-down often. One of Douglas’s more impressive stats is his tackles – averaging just two per game until round 6, he has averaged five per game since – 12 points in difference. His kick to handball ratio is also strong – nearly two kicks for every handball since round 7.

Whilst Adelaide themselves are not going very strongly, Douglas seems to be leading their now young midfield. I also don’t believe that Adelaide are as bad as their form suggests – they did get thrashed again on the weekend, but they were still competitive through parts of the game. Also, plenty of their key players are either returning from injury or coming into form, suggesting a few more wins won’t be far away. Senior players will continue to either retire or be wrapped in cotton-wool in preparation for 2011, meaning that the younger players such as Douglas are going to be left with plenty of responsibility. He is probably a bit overpriced compared to a few weeks ago (his price has risen $125,400 since the start of the year), however he is one of only a few forwards who have averaged over 100 points for the past five weeks. He will also present as an uncommon selection for your team approaching finals – he is in the fewest amount of teams of all top-20 forwards. You could certainly do much worse than him for the remaining rounds – he is certainly showing no signs of slowing down.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.8

Average Tackles per game: 3.4

Average Disposals per game: 20.5

Average Goals per game: 1

Breakeven: 55

Average Dream Team Points: 87

Price: $414,400(+$125,400)

Jack Riewoldt:

There were never too many doubts about whether Riewoldt would become a good player, but the worries were more about when – he plays in the forward line for the bottom team of the competition and has become known (in his short career) for being a very selfish player – something which certainly slows down his development. But in the past several weeks we have witnessed Riewoldt getting better and better every week. I sat behind the goals last week at Etihad Stadium as he kicked himself six goals against the Saints – and even the great defensive side that is St.Kilda had few answers for him. He has amazing strength for a player of his age – not that it looks like it – but watching Sam Fisher and Jason Blake double-teaming him, yet BOTH getting out-bodied by the much younger player proved just how good he is getting both physically and as a player.

There will be doubts about whether he can keep this form up, but from watching him he is certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. He is clearly loving his football at the moment and his current form is indicative of this. There is, however, no better example of how well he is playing then the 10 goals he kicked against West Coast this weekend – the first time a player has hit the ten-goal mark in nearly three years – the last player being Jono Brown (not bad company to be in!). This is no mean feat, especially when you are playing for the team sitting clear on the bottom of the ladder, in a position that would generally be considered one of the hardest in football. Yet in the past five weeks, he has kicked 32 goals – more than any other player in the competition, and a tally that now has him sitting two goals clear on top of the Coleman medal list.

What makes Riewoldt’s game more interesting is the way he plays his role – to put things in comparison, he is 193cm, the same size as his cousin, St.Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt – unlike many other players of his size, his ability at ground level is almost the equal of any small forward. Where most tall forwards would palm the ball down to their crumbers when unable to take a mark, Riewoldt instead palms the ball to space where he himself can run onto it to kick a goal, ala Stephen Milne. It is a freakish ability, and one that shouldn’t be taken lightly from a player of his stature.

Goals are not his only way of troubling the stats sheet, as he has also worked on many other areas of his game too this year, such as his tackling – he averages just over four tackles, nearly double his average from 2009. His disposals average has remained the same from last year, but what has improved is his kick to handball ratio – in 2009, he was running at a very good 2.5 kicks for every handball, but this year his 5.6 kicks to every handball is simply ridiculous!

It could possibly still be argued that Riewoldt is not worth choosing due to the team he plays in, but I believe that this is not an issue – whilst it would be much better for him to be playing at Geelong or St.Kilda, the players delivering the ball to him are all great users of the ball (Cotchin, Martin, Cousins), meaning it is typically placed very well for him. Also, being such a key target, they go to him much more than any other player – think of Fevola at Carlton over the past few years. He is a brilliant player, despite only being 21 years old. He will only continue to get better and is even a chance to make it to the lofty heights of his great cousin if he works hard enough. He is not as left-field a pick as many may make themselves believe, plus with forward lines being the bane of all evil in 2010, it is worth being creative – it just may pay off!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 5.6 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.75

Average Tackles per game: 4.1

Average Disposals per game: 12.75

Average Goals per game: 3.75

Breakeven: 23

Average Dream Team Points: 92.58

Price: $395,300(+$67,900)