Footy Tragic

Don’t forget to check out the Weekly Wrap from week one of the split round!

Geelong vs St.Kilda:

Looking Good:

• Nick Dal Santo: Dal was let of the Ling leash for the first time in several years and he relished the freedom. He made the most of his lack of tag with 31 touches, 90% of which reached their target – a statistic that suggests that it is unlikely the Cats will allow him this much freedom next time they meet.

• Joel Selwood: Was the Cats best by a mile – his work in the clearances was sublime and he continued to work hard all evening, thriving in the wet, contested conditions. When he initially lined up on Hayes in the first quarter, I must admit I got a bit excited – unfortunately though it didn’t last too long.
• James Gwilt: Gwilt, although not quite making it to a DT ton, was the Saints best through the game with his great drive off half-back. His confidence was clearly up, as was his decision making skills, making him a very threatening player coming off the backline. Not only did he win 27 of his own disposals, but he also shut Podsiadly completely out of the match, keeping him goalless.

Disappointing:

• James Podsiadly: Pods had a night to forget, kicking no majors amongst his 7 disposals – easily his worst return of the year. Admittedly it wasn’t his ideal conditions, but he certainly let down plenty of dream teamers this week.
• Rhys Stanley: Stanley has been serviceable, if not good, in his handful of games this year, however his inclusion has been somewhat of a structural decision rather than one based on form. But now with the imminent return of Riewoldt, Stanley will likely find himself out of the squad – whilst he hasn’t done much to suggest he should be dropped, Lyon is unlikely to give such a young player much of a chance as his team approaches the finals.
• Travis Varcoe: If there is one type of player who can carve up St.Kilda, it is a speedy wingman with great acceleration and ball-handling skills. So it was surprising to see Varcoe given such a small role on the ball in this game, especially in the wet conditions. He should have been given the opportunity to rack up 25 disposals, but instead finished with just 11.

Blip on the Radar:

• Darren Milburn: Milburn is a DT veteran, and is still capable of providing a large score as proven in this game. However, at his age and in the role he predominantly plays in the Cats backline, don’t be expecting many huge scores out of him this year. It is always a huge risk bringing a player of Milburn’s vintage into your side, especially with few trades remaining.

Sydney vs Collingwood:

Looking Good:

• Darren Jolly: Played his best game of the year against his old side and clearly acted like he had something extra to play for. He finished with 17 possessions and was the dominant ruckman on the ground. I considered putting this game down as a blip on the radar due to his average form all year, but the hope can maybe be that this will be his breakout game in the white and black.
• Martin Mattner: Stepped up in the backline in the absence of Kennelly and the relatively low output of the heavily tagged Malceski. He played on Leigh Brown, but had obvious license to rebound, collecting 26 possessions, 7 tackles and 8 marks for the game.
• Heath Shaw: Thrived without any opposition, especially in the first half when Sydney allowed him to roam free as the loose man. He finally received some attention in the second half, but he had fortunately seen enough of the ball early to help himself to his first ton in a little while.

Disappointing:

• Adam Goodes: Was spanked by Presti and didn’t look like his usual attacking self. In Bradshaw’s absence he played closer to goal and this only helped Presti’s plight. Only finished with the 13 touches.
• Leon Davis: When Presti scores more Dream Team points than you, you know you’re in trouble! He started the game with spark, looking dangerous when the ball came in his area, but as soon as he had to do something with it, his confidence went out the window. A whopping five frees against didn’t help his scoring either.
• Daniel Hannebery: Was pretty poor against a quality opposition. Just had one of those games where he couldn’t get anywhere near it.

Blip on the Radar:

• Leigh Brown: Brown is a player who can come out and play one or two blinders a year, but has never proven himself as a consistent dream teamer, nor a consistent participant in the Collingwood side. Don’t ever get sucked into this guy, no matter how many good games he may play.

Adelaide vs Melbourne:

Looking Good:

• Simon Goodwin: The Skipper played one of his better games of the season, running off the half-back line. This was the first time this year the Crows have really shown some consistent form, and if it continues, Goodwin’s form should hopefully continue as he plays out the final weeks of his career.
• Graham Johncock: When actually fit, Stiffy has played some very good games this year, and again his run off half-back was a highlight of the game. He racked up 32 disposals, and as he has proven time and time again, he is also capable of dropping forward for the odd goal.
• Tom Scully: This kid is going to be a star, and it is not hard finding parallels between him and Judd at the same age. His inside work is great for a first year player – he finished with 9 tackles for the game – just think of how good this kid will be in a few years!

Disappointing:

• Brad Miller: Stood by Rutten and did nothing all day, only contributing a solitary behind to the scoreboard. The Dees must be hoping Jurrah isn’t far away!
• Richard Douglas: Played on a forward flank, rather than in the midfield position that has won him plenty of DT fans in the past month or so. Unfortunately, he also chose to handball the footy much more than kicking it, meaning his reasonable 24 disposals only translated to an average 68 points.
• Jordie McKenzie: I don’t quite understand why McKenzie has fallen so quickly out of favour after a great start to the year – this week he was given a run-with role on Bernie Vince, but did a better job at shutting himself out of the contest, finishing with only 11 disposals.

Blip on the Radar:

• Bernie Vince: Vince played well – in fact he finished with 30 disposals and a goal, despite a tag. The worry is though, Neil Craig has blatantly announced that Vince is not 100% fit, and won’t be for the remainder of the year. Whilst he is currently very cheap, and is a very good player, the last thing you should do is trade an unfit player into your squad at this stage of the season. Not only could he miss more games, his game time will likely be down on his average, and he may even be made to sit out the last few games of the year when Adelaide concede that they won’t make finals. Consider him for 2011 instead.

St Kilda

B: Steven Baker, Jason Blake, Sam Gilbert

HB: Jarryn Geary, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt

C: Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Farren Ray

HF: Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Adam Schneider

F: Brett Peake, Ben McEvoy, Stephen Milne

Foll: Michael Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna

I/C: Robert Eddy, Jack Steven, Andrew McQualter, Rhys Stanley

Emg: Sean Dempster, Zac Dawson, Adam Pattison

In: Steven

Out: Raphael Clarke (hamstring)

• Steven returns for his second game of the year, which was a significant surprise as he hasn’t been carving it up at Sandringham. He did however make a name for himself in the 2008 NAB cup by kicking the winning goal against Geelong – perhaps they want to see whether he is up to competing with the big boys as through the pre-season he seemed to be a big part of their plans.

Geelong Cats

B: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt

HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright

C: James Kelly, Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel

HF: Mathew Stokes, James Podsiadly, Shannon Byrnes

F: Travis Varcoe, Cameron Mooney, Steve Johnson

Foll: Mark Blake, Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood

I/C: David Wojcinski, Taylor Hunt, Trent West, Tom Lonergan

Emg: Mitchell Duncan, Ryan Gamble, Simon Hogan

In: Mooney, Scarlett

Out: Paul Chapman (hamstring), Simon Hogan

• HUUUUUUGE NEWS!! Chappy’s hamstring has finally gone ping! Devastating news for those who own him, as this will unfortunately put him out for 3-4 weeks…
• Scarlett and Mooney return as expected, however question marks will still surround Mooney until he actually lines up.

SYDNEY SWANS v COLLINGWOOD

Sydney Swans

B: Rhyce Shaw, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Nick Smith

HB: Martin Mattner, Heath Grundy, Tadhg Kennelly

C: Nick Malceski, Brett Kirk, Kieren Jack

HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Goodes, Josh Kennedy

F: Daniel Hannebery, Daniel Bradshaw, Jesse White

Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh

I/C: Paul Bevan, Craig Bird, Ben McGlynn, Mike Pyke

Emg: Gary Rohan, Patrick Veszpremi, Lewis Jetta

In: Shaw, Bradshaw

Out: Patrick Veszpremi, Gary Rohan

• Shaw and Bradshaw are both good inclusions for the Swans, although Rohan’s dropping is a big blow to many – especially for those who own both him and Chapman.
• Disappointing to see Veszpremi dropped as he didn’t actually perform too badly last week.

Collingwood

B: Heath Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo, Leigh Brown

HB: Harry O’Brien, Tyson Goldsack, Alan Toovey

C: Sharrod Wellingham, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom

HF: Luke Ball, Travis Cloke, Brad Dick

F: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Leon Davis

Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas

I/C: Alan Didak, Ben Johnson, Tarkyn Lockyer, Ben Reid

Emg: Josh Fraser, Brent Macaffer, Jaxson Barham

In: Johnson, Didak, Ball, Goldsack, Dawes

Out: Josh Fraser, Paul Medhurst, Nick Maxwell (calf), Brent Macaffer, Jaxson Barham

• Plenty of changes for the Pies – there are several big ins with Johnson, Didak and Ball all returning from injury.
• Plenty of big outs too though – clearly the Pies are fed up with the poor form of Medhurst and Fraser – both are clearly out of form and out of favour – look to trade them if they are holding a spot in your team.

ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE

Adelaide

B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens

HB: Michael Doughty, Phil Davis, Matthew Jaensch

C: Brad Symes, Simon Goodwin, David Mackay

HF: Scott Thompson, Kurt Tippett, Nathan van Berlo

F: Richard Douglas, Taylor Walker, Ricky Henderson

Foll: Ivan Maric, Patrick Dangerfield, Brent Reilly

I/C (from): Jonathon Griffin, Bernie Vince, James Sellar, Rory Sloane, Jared Petrenko, Tony Armstrong, Jason Porplyzia

In: Sellar, Vince, Jaensch, Phil Davis

Out: Nathan Bock (groin)

• Bock makes way again, whilst a raft of younger crows come onto the extended bench.
• Jaensch and Davis are certainties to play, named on the field, whilst there is little doubting Vince will also get a game. Perhaps the out of form Griffin and Porplyzia will make way, however those with Armstrong will be sweating it out as his spot has already been proven insecure once this year.

Melbourne

B: Clint Bartram, Matthew Warnock, James Frawley

HB: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Jack Grimes

C: Brad Green, Jack Trengove, Cameron Bruce

HF: Cale Morton, Matthew Bate, Tom Scully

F: Neville Jetta, Brad Miller, Aaron Davey

Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones

I/C (from): Joel Macdonald, Jordie McKenzie, Jack Watts, Lynden Dunn, Jamie Bennell, Kyle Cheney, Jake Spencer

In: Macdonald, Cheney, Spencer, Bennell

Out: Jordan Gysberts

• Another huge out in Gysberts – many weren’t worried trading him in after two huge first games, but his third game was well below par, leaving him to feel the wrath of the selection panel.
• The other big news is the non-inclusion of Colin Sylvia – despite nearly making it to play a fortnight ago, he still seems not to have recovered from his toe injury. Maybe he should have a chat with Daniel Chick and just chop the bloody thing off!!

View Bluetonium’s Team
Round 12 Score: 2,305
Current Overall Ranking: 37,876
Trades Left: 11
Remaining Salary Cap: $28,400

Dear Bluetonium,

Thank you for submitting your team. The question you have put to us asking the best way to finalise your team for the run home is one of the most common questions we get asked. Having 11 trades up your sleeve to use over the remaining 9 rounds is certainly a luxury and the time has come for you to start using some of those valuable trades.

The best way to improve your side is to start making what is commonly referred to as “two for one” trades. This trading strategy involves trading out two average or mid priced players and replacing them with one gun and one rookie. The gun player that you bring into your team becomes a keeper for the run home, while the rookie becomes a valuable addition to your side as a reserve e.g. your 8^th defender or forward, 7^th midfielder etc. I have identified the following nine mid priced players who you should look to trade out of your side in the run home.

These players are: Ben Nason, Tadhg Kennelly, Ryan Bastinac, Dustin Martin, Brodie Moles, Matthew Leuenberger, Hayden Ballantyne, Sam Wright and Cameron Hitchcock.

Choosing the guns to bring into your side is the easy part. My advice is to bring in the best player you can afford in each position. Players such as Heath Scotland, Dane Swan, Gary Ablett, Leigh Montagna, Matthew Boyd, Dean Cox, Paul Chapman, Matthew Pavlich and Alan Didak should be very much on your radar over the next 6 – 8 weeks.

Choosing the rookies to bring into your side is much more challenging. My advice is to select the rookies with the greatest job security for the run home. This means that we want our rookies playing regular AFL footy, rather than being constantly in and out of the side. At this point of the season you should be looking very closely at rookies from teams out of finals contention such as: West Coast, Adelaide and Richmond. The reason for this is because these teams need to start building for the future, which means they need to test their rookie’s ability by giving them regular games of AFL footy. You should avoid looking at rookies who play for teams such as: Geelong, St. Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn etc. because these teams will be relying on their more experienced, proven players as they strive for September glory.

Prior to Rounds 14 and 15 you should bring Andrew Strijk and Koby Stevens into your side, along with two guns I have mentioned above. For other future rookie selections, be sure to read Dan’s weekly “Bargain Basement” article on Wednesday’s.

Good luck!

As mentioned earlier today, Dan’s article, ‘Boys on the Bubble’ was unable to be submitted due to personal reasons – he passes on his apologies. Toby however (overworked and underpaid), has very kindly offered to write an article in its place.

Thanks to you all.

The Team At Footy Tragic

Since the ‘Boys on the Bubble’ article is practically obsolete today (due to there being practically no-one on the bubble), I thought it may not be harmful to take a close look at what we should do with Jonathan Brown in the coming weeks. Now I should say firstly, this is not another ‘Who’d You Rather’ article, but instead a bit of a discussion point on what to do with the great man. He currently sits in 138,060, making him the 6^th most popular player in this year’s dream team and is priced at $305,500. But unfortunately, as it stands he is doing bugger all for any of us as his is currently sitting on the bench, and looks to continue to do so for the next 4 games or so (he is listed as four weeks on today’s injury report). However, I am sure that I am not the only one watching Brisbane’s current form and wondering whether they will bother to rush him back, if at all. They currently sit 11^th on the ladder – two games and percentage out of the eight and are coming off an embarrassing loss to Richmond at the Gabba. Things couldn’t get much worse for the Lions as their injury list mounts. The issue with Brown is, as much as he is an amazing player, his stomach injury is one which will only heal if given rest – essentially, they could play him in two or three weeks and allow it the flair back up, or play him in four to six weeks and hope it stays away. My worry (as a Brown owner) is that with the fact Brisbane is very unlikely to make the eight, there is a significant chance they will put Brown on ice for the remainder of the season, readying him for 2011.

So there are several ways that we can look at this Brown scenario, and every coach will look at it differently, especially considering the different bench options. Personally (when my full team is fit) I have a bench of Hitchcock and Rockliff – currently, Brown and Higgins reside in their spots, meaning I have $639,700 sitting on the pine – not ideal. Hopefully, Higgins will return this week, meaning Rockliff will be the only emergency I have playing, and with an average of 105 points over the past four games, I’m not overly concerned. So in this scenario, where I have adequate cover, I can ask myself three questions; do I keep Brown, hoping he will return, and knowing I have Rockliff providing adequate cover his spot in the meantime? Or do I trade Brown for a rookie (using the acquired cash elsewhere), leaving Rockliff on the field for the remaining games, hoping he can remain good to form? Or thirdly, do I upgrade Brown to another forward, pushing Rockliff back onto my bench, only to be used as cover? As it stands, I am tempted to hold onto Brown – in my case, I don’t need to upgrade any other areas of my field, and part of my worries are that Rockliff may not sustain his form (although I am equally concerned about Brown not returning). But if you have a similar bench to me, yet are lacking your final premium midfielder or defender, than biting the bullet and offloading Brown may be a decent idea. If you are to trade him, may I suggest Aaron Cornelius – a $165k forward from Brisbane who came in for his first game on the weekend, playing in Brown’s role. He kicked three goals and looked lively, finishing on 64 points.

The second scenario sees a bench that is perhaps not as trustworthy – perhaps you have a combo of Watts, Hitchcock, Stewart, or the like. These players are in the best 20-25 in their squads, meaning they can’t be relied upon for getting a game, nor performing consistently. These sorts of players unfortunately can’t be trusted to hold a spot in your team (unless you are down to your final couple of trades, which makes things very hard), so in this scenario I believe Brown has to go. As I eluded earlier, the issue with Brown’s injury is when he will actually return – to reiterate, due to the nature of his injury, and Brisbane’s current form, there is a chance Brown won’t be sited again this season. Currently he is listed by Brisbane as four weeks from returning, and I would assume that this is at least four weeks. Therefore, I recommend to those who have no adequate cover, offload him. Around this price are some good picks – players such as O’Keefe, Giansiracusa and Sylvia who had good early form, only to drop in price with a few poor games mid-season. Then there are players such as Rioli and Varcoe – both who have shown great improvement in recent games, yet are still reasonably priced. Whilst both may produce some sporadic scoring (due to the nature of their games), they are both capable of dominating a game too, scoring in excess of 120 points. Personally, if it were me, I would be trading either of these two names in, rather than the common mid-pricers such as Gia, O’Keefe and Sylvia. They will add more x-factor to your team come finals time and could be the wild card selection that gets you over the line.

Lastly, there are the teams down to the dregs of their trades – I see this as anywhere between four and zero remaining (if you have zero, then my advice is to keep Brown…). At this stage, these trades are like gold. If Martin is your last mid, keep him. If you are playing a rookie as your final defender, keep him. None of these trades should be used to upgrade rookies to premiums, unless in the first couple of weeks of finals. Whilst I don’t have a set strategy or timeline for using my trades as some other coaches do, one thing that I am aware of burning plenty of coaches is the use of all your trades too early. From this point onwards, only use your trades to cover long term injuries to your key players. Essentially, you are better using a trade to upgrade Chapman in round 18 when he does his hamstring, than you are upgrading Silvagni to Carrazzo this week. So in the Brown scenario, things get a little tricky – as I said above, only trade long term injuries, and only trade premiums when you have no cover. So there is a case here to say Brown ticks both those boxes – and personally, I would actually hit trade on him this week if I had four trades and no decent cover. I would offload to the best I could afford (or if I couldn’t afford anyone ‘premium,’ I would do a straight swap for Varcoe or Rioli). I think in this case it is worth it as low grade cover options such as Watts, Hitchcock and Stewart, etc are all only averaging 40-60 points. A trade from Brown to Rioli could see a net gain of at least 50 points – well worth it in my book! I think that if Brown had rolled an ankle, we knew he would be three weeks and Brisbane were in the top 8, I would keep him – but with all the variables I have mentioned with his injury, it is better to bite the bullet now and notice the points gain straight away than constantly suffering for another four weeks until we hear the real story.

Well, I hope this all helps, and hope it was an interesting read – and even if it doesn’t solve your problems, hopefully it can get you thinking about your own strategies. And surely, these are probably not the only ideas for everyone’s Brown woes – if you have an alternative, I’d be interested to hear it! Thanks again fellas and happy trading!

Well, this week the topic is probably no huge surprise – with the highly unfortunate injury to young Carlton star Matthew Kruezer, I will look at some of the better trade options for those 44,586 coaches with him in their side. Due to the fact he only managed 5 points before falling with injury, his price will severely drop – likely to be as low as $300,000. Therefore, taking into account that everyone won’t have a lazy $100k sitting in the bank for a straight upgrade to Sandilands, I am going to look at some options at a few different price-points.

Aaron Sandilands: Big 211 has been the ruckman of the competition so far this year – at his towering height and newly acquired marking skills, he is close to impossible to beat for many ruckman. In the early years of his career, he was simply a tall guy who could tap the ball at stoppages, however he has greatly developed in recent years to also become a fantastic midfield option for Fremantle too. He averages 17 disposals and 36 hitouts a game, showing it is close to impossible for him to score below 80 (something he has done only once so far this year). He is very consistent and capable of big scores, making him the number one ruck target for your team this year.

Paddy Ryder: After a slow start to the year, where he averaged just 69 points for the first five rounds, Ryder has really turned his form around, averaging 106, including no scores under 90 points. Essendon have been rotating their rucks quite a bit through the forward line (however, Ryder’s time in the ruck has been up the past couple of weeks due to Hille’s injury) – this means that Ryder is often capable of quite a few disposals, as well as snagging a few goals. He has averaged 12 disposals, 19 hitouts and one goal a game – but where he really builds up some points is in his 5.25 tackles per game (over 20 DT points worth). Ryder epitomises the ideal new-age ruckman; he is tall, fast and agile, capable of running all day and essentially playing as an extra midfielder. He is the most expensive ruckman at the moment, but his current form can certainly justify his price.

Dean Cox: Coxy has had a decent year without being terrific – he started the year well underdone, returning from injuries that cut his 2009 campaign short. Because of this slow start, he averaged just 67 points for the first four rounds and subsequently dropped $93,800 from his huge starting price. Since round five, Cox has started to build some form and fitness back and it has helped him turn his scoring around. However, it should not be expected we will see the Cox of 2007-2009 return now that Naitanui is in the side – Woosha (John Worsfold) is giving NicNat the most time in the ruck, playing Cox forward more often then not. This has certainly dropped Cox’s scoring ability – he has averaged well over 100 the past few years, but in 2010 he has averaged just 85 points (94 not including the first four rounds), which includes only three scores over 100 (102, 108 and 103). His current price is probably all that he is worth, unless the long season starts to take a toll in Naitanui, which wouldn’t be surprising. The hope would be that as the season progresses, Cox can spend more and more time in the middle, pushing his price up – however, as it stands, Cox is probably the best of the mid-priced ruckman – he is no longer a premium.

Shane Mumford: I gave Mummy a bit of a wrap two weeks ago and it still stands – after averaging 100 points over the past four weeks, he has become a very viable option. He plays the game with  a huge amount of aggression, tackling hard and getting plenty of contested ball. He has been in somewhat of a purple patch since Seaby injured himself a few weeks ago – since becoming Sydney’s number one ruck he has averaged 7 tackles, 35 hitouts, and 13.5 disposals a game – all very much up on his stats from earlier in the year when he was second fiddle to Seaby. This form shouldn’t just be temporary either – Seaby isn’t due back for a couple of months and the only other viable ruck on Sydney’s list is Mike Pyke, who certainly isn’t setting the world on fire. Whilst Mumford is possibly becoming a bit pricey, I think he has the runs on the board to suggest consistency – he plays the game with huge intent, so is not simply going to drift in and out of games. I see him as just as good an option as Cox.

Kepler Bradley: Bradley is a very left-field option, but currently he is averaging the fourth best score of all ruckman, so is certainly worth discussing. He has always been a much-maligned player known for his flailing limbs and often used as a whipping boy for Fremantle fans. However, this years things seem to have changed; he came into the squad for his second game in round 9 for the suspended Michael Johnson and looked very good. He is playing as Sandilands’ second fiddle in the ruck, but also playing as a full-forward the rest of the time – the four goals he kicked against North Melbourne were the difference in round 10 and he doesn’t seem to have looked back since. He has averaged 80 points, however hasn’t scored over 100 once which is a slight worry – at least the consistency is there for him to build upon. He could certainly be worth considering, although I don’t know how many dream teamers could actually stomach trading him in (I threw up twice when writing this article!).

Other Possibilities:

Angus Graham: Having his breakout season and priced a little over $300k. His tackling was a highlight early (he averaged 7.5 for his first three games), but has only laid three since. He is really coming of age, but I worry he may score sporadically alongside Richmond’s form.

Mark Jamar: Jamar has been one of the biggest improvers of the year, although his DT scoring hasn’t been quite as impressive. I really like watching the Russian go about it as he is one of the big reasons for Melbourne’s rapid rise this year. Unfortunately though, he is averaging just 72 DT points with only one game over 100 – you would be better looking at one of the above options.

Kurt Tippett: Adelaide have been terrible this year and the delivery to this young man has far from helped his case. But at the back of everyone’s minds, surely people are questioning whether Adelaide will bounce back in the second half of the year – players are starting to return from injury and they do look OK in bursts. If they get going, Tippett’s price may suddenly jolt upwards, but is it a risk you’re willing to take?