Footy Tragic
Nolls XXII/Hidden Gem
Category: Submit Your Team · Round: 2009 - Round 21
NEW TO FOOTY TRAGIC
Dear Footy Tragics,
The “Submit Your Team” section is now broken up into two parts:
- PART 1 – The “Submit Your Team” section as per normal;
- PART 2 -The NEW section where I unearth a hidden gem who I expect to make an impact in 2010. These players are under priced because they have been in the AFL system for 3 years or less and are still trying to establish themselves as AFL footballers. I’m looking for the next Andy Otten, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitchell Brown or Taylor Walker.
PART 1:
View Nolls XXII’s Team
Round 19 Score: 1923
Current Overall Ranking: 62,626
Trades Left: 0
Remaining Salary Cap: $37,100
Dear Nolls XXII,
Thank you for submitting your team.
- As you have run out of trades and are currently sitting 62,626 overall, I’m going to focus more on giving you some pointers to help you in 2010. I’ve also decided to use this opportunity to highlight some common dreamteam errors I have seen in 2009.
- How to conserve my valuable trades? – I’ll try to keep this brief, because I could easily turn this into a 5,000 word thesis. The key here is to nail your starting squad of 30 players. As we all know, injuries play a major role in dreamteam and they affect us all in varying degrees. I’ve heard all the excuses, but I’ve got no time for them. We only get 20 trades for the year, so use them wisely.
- Be wary of the key forward in dreamteam – Jarrad Grant may turn out to be a very fine Centre Half Forward for the Western Bulldogs in the coming years, but don’t expect big dreamteam scores from him. Grant is a big man who stands at 192cms, and his greatest strength is his marking. You are much better going after a crumbing forward / midfielder, rather than a key forward such as Grant.
- Shutting the gate after the horse has bolted - Leigh Harding was inserted into many dreamteams prior to Round 3, after scoring 150 (against Melbourne) and 108 in the first 2 weeks of the season. Unfortunately for Leigh and 45,733 dreamteamers, he averaged just 75 points per game for the next 16 weeks. To compound this problem, Harding suffered a season ending hamstring injury in Round 18, just before our finals. The lesson here is to pick next weeks winner not last weeks. As the world’s richest man Warren Buffett says, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been”.
If you picked Matthew Richardson, Paul Chapman (injured again during dreamteam finals), Josh Fraser or Chad Cornes in your 2009 dreamteam, don’t ask for sympathy or bleat about injuries. Yes, all four of these players have the potential to score very highly, but all are injury prone! If you want to take the risk on one of these players in 2010, let me remind you of a favourite saying of mine: “A fool is a man who does the same thing twice but expects a different result the second time”.To sum up this point, pick durable players, below age 30.
PROPOSED ACTION THIS WEEK (WEEK 3 OF FINALS):
None – no trades left
Good luck in 2010!
PART 2 (NEW):
Hidden gem Week 5: Matthew Broadbent – Port Adelaide – Midfield /Defence – 2009 price $86,600;
2010 price $??? (It’s at the discretion of dreamteam headquarters but I’m hoping $150,000).
- So far in my hidden gem series, I’ve looked at two ruckman, one forward and one midfielder. The final piece of the puzzle and the most difficult is the defence. I’ve spent a considerable amount of time researching the lower priced defenders before writing this article and I’ve settled on Broadbent.
- This week I’ve been ably assisted by fellow Footy Tragic expert Dan, our resident guru on all the young talent coming through the AFL system. It’s worth noting here that our man Dan has been all over Broadbent, since watching him live in action for South Australia in the 2008 AFL Under 18 National Championships.
- I am aware that Broadbent has already played 2 matches in 2009 (Round 16 against West Coast for 55 points and Round 17 against Adelaide for 39 points), but let me explain why I think Broadbent is still worth consideration at a price of approximately $150,000 – $160,000 in 2010.
- Let’s not forget that Jack Grimes was a defender priced at $186,400 prior to Round 1 2009 after just one game in 2008 for 42 points. I’m not saying Broadbent will be the 2010 version of Grimes, but I believe it is worth forking out some extra cash to get a quality player such as Broadbent into your defensive structure.
- Matthew Broadbent is a local product and he was drafted from SANFL club Woodville – West Torrens with pick number 38 in the 2008 National draft. Broadbent is listed as 189cms, 84kgs and he is an old school half back flanker. Broadbent played 11 senior SANFL games for Woodville – West Torrens in 2008, mostly as a 17 year old (he turned 18 last August). Broadbent has also spent the majority of this season playing for Woodville – West Torrens and he has been very impressive. So much so that he is an outside chance to play against Brisbane this Saturday night.
- Port Adelaide coach Mark Williams says the following about Broadbent, “He reminds me of a young Dom Cassisi”. Williams was referring to Broadbent’s strong work ethic, good character and determination, high praise indeed from the senior coach!
- As for our man Dan, this is what he had to say, “Broadbent is a ball magnet who is made for dreamteam. He reads the play extremely well, is good overhead for his size and he has neat disposal. Broadbent is not outstanding in any one area of his game, but he has no glaring weaknesses either. The best way to describe Broadbent would be hard, fearless, honest and reliable”.
- The downside for Broadbent appears to be job security. While Mark Williams clearly rates the young man, it’s well known that Williams has a preference for dynamic and explosive running players that suit the Power’s run and carry / keeping’s off style game plan. Players such as Danyle Pearce, Shaun Burgoyne, Travis Boak, David Rodan and the super impressive Hamish Hartlett all fit this mould.
- Having said that, with a second pre season under his belt, there is no reason why Broadbent can’t force his way into the senior side for Round 1, 2010. It will take him a great deal of hard work and dedication, but Broadbent has the required work ethic and strength of character to become a successful AFL player.
- Good luck Matthew!
Please feel free to post a comment, we welcome all feedback.
Please also advise if you’ll be considering Matthew Broadbent for your dreamteam in 2010.
Category: Submit Your Team · Round: 2009 - Round 21
11 Comments on Nolls XXII/Hidden Gem
I do like broadbent and in the past he has had great DT numbers. I hope he keeps his back eligibility. I just wonder if there will be a spot for him in the 22. We have a few in a similar role (and marlon motlop will be back from injury).
It’d be crazy if Broadbent didn’t keep his defender eligibility, but they’ve mader stranger decisions when classifying players.
Tuney, what’s with the “Warren Buffet” quote? That was said by hockey legend Wayne Gretzky.
Both Buffett and Gretzky have said it, but considering Buffett is the richest man in the world, he gets the nod in my book.
He is referring to the share market, but the same principles apply to dreamteam.
Would need to show a fair bit pre-season wise for me to take a punt on Broadbent if he is around the 150K mark, another to add to the watch list I guess.
Also what do you guys think about trading Griffen to Tyson Edwards? Can only afford a player around 355,000 and under as also want to turn Houlihan into ROK.
Tuney, but surely the origins of the quote should get the credit. It’d be like calling Under The Bridge an All Saints song.
Ned, I like Edwards as an option. He should be safe for 90-100 if you look at his recent history against West Coast and Carlton. If you want a bit more upside check out his teammate Scott Thompson, who has a good history against WC and Carl.
A smokey I’ll throw at there around that price range (don’t laugh) is Richard Tambling. Take out his first three games this year, which were bad, and his average in his last 15 has been 96.2. Hawthorn and WC isn’t a challenging run home, so tons should be on. I wouldn’t have the balls just because he was so quiet on the weekend, but he could be an interesting point of difference in the last two. He’s actually come of age this year.
Thanks Dan just had a look at Tambling, surprisingly good, although seems like he had a couple of injury worries on the weekend according to fanfooty AC joint/ankle problem so might steer clear.
Coin toss between Edwards and Thompson hmmm who would McLeod pick…
I’d like to throw another pet dreamteam hate of mine into the mix, I call it “The Herd Mentality”. Let me explain.
Please note the figures below are: 1 – 2009 starting price; 2 – 2009 average points per game; 3 – Number of dreamteams with player:
Matthew Boyd $406,800 – 103 – 7,844 teams;
Chris Judd $378,600 – 95 – 112,172 teams;
Jude Bolton $378,600 – 97 – 4,304 teams;
Travis Boak $369,600 – 91 – 2,432 teams;
Jobe Watson $360,300 – 95 – 9,946 teams;
Daniel Jackson $318,300 – 91 – 2,180 teams.
My question is, why do so many people flock to Chris Judd every year when there are so many other viable alternatives out there?
Sure Chris Judd is a very good AFL player, but he has never been an elite dreamteamer.
My preparations are well underway for 2010 and my sole aim is to win the car. I’ve done pretty well the last few years (1,500 overall in 2007, 19th overall in 2008, currently 2,382 overall in 2009) but I want more.
In order to give myself a chance for overall glory in 2010, I’m going to take a few risks and back my own judgement. If this means picking up a Matty Boyd or Travis Boak in 2010, I’ll do it. I sure as hell won’t be picking up Gary Ablett or Chris Judd. There is no thought process or uniqueness with Ablett or Judd.
The herd mentality originates from pre historic times. Our ancestors would all group together to avoid being left solo and becoming someone else’s lunch.
We no longer have to worry about being someone else’s lunch, so it’s time to release ourselves from the “herd mentality”.
Agree with your points about the herd mentality, but Ablett has the second highest average in the league. Sure, he missed a few games, but the security he gives you as a captain option makes him a worthwhile selection (plus even after missing games he’s still 8th for total points in the midfield).
Thought process or uniqueness doesn’t come into for me if the player is a dead set DT stud. Judd isn’t, but Ablett absolutely is.
Great points Ben, the thing with Juddy, everyone knows he is a superstar and he is priced cheaper at the start of the year (because he isn’t a great DTer). So many of the “less fanatical” see judd so “cheap” and jump on. There was suggestions that he was fitter and a chance to play more outside this year, but that hasn’t really happened.
Boyd and Boak are ones i will look at next year. Boak worries me with ‘durability’ (games per year 11,17,16*) *may get upto 18 if stays on park for last 2 games.
Watson will unfortunately be more expensive next year (based on 95 average around 425k mark)
Yeah i definately agree Ben – although, i still enjoy putting a couple of what i like to call “known quantities” in my team. Each year, it can be almost guaranteed that Ablett and Swan will chop… but it is those other selections which truly shape your team.
This year i chose Selwood, K Cornes and Luke Ball as my ‘others’, and it must be said that only 1 and a half of these were successful – Selwood was great, Kornes wasnt as good as hoped, and Ball has had a shocking year.
Young kids are definitely important as they typically have the most improvement in them – Next year i’m looking at Cotchin, Boak, Callum Ward and Chris Mayne as some players who should really improve over the next off-season! With a couple of fantastic drafts in recent years, we should soon be spoiled with a plethora of great choices! The trick is working out the star from the pack!
The guys that are usually most beneficial are the ones that have a role change. Mark LeCras looks mighty tempting for next year, based on how he’s finished this season. Hopefully he maintains forward eligibility because he looks set for a full time midfield move.
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