Footy Tragic
Alligator Pav
View Alligator Pav’s Team
Round 16 Score: 2,007
Current Overall Ranking: 12,900
Trades Left: 3
Remaining Salary Cap: $160,600
NEW TO FOOTY TRAGIC
Dear Footy Tragics,
From now until season’s end, the “Submit Your Team” section will be broken up into two parts:
- PART 1 - The “Submit Your Team” section as per normal;
- PART 2 -The NEW section where I unearth a hidden gem who I expect to make an impact in 2010. These players are under priced because they have been in the AFL system for 3 years or less & are still trying to establish themselves as AFL footballers. I’m looking for the next Andy Otten, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitchell Brown or Taylor Walker.
PART 1:
Dear Alligator Pav,
Thank you for submitting your team.
I’m reluctant to recommend any trades this week, because it is in your best interest to retain these for the finals. Additionally, with the possible return of Josh Fraser this week, you should have a solid team of 22 players this week. Having said that, I’m going to focus more on your team structure & advise you where to use your remaining 3 trades:
- TRADES 1 & 2 - Assuming no injuries, I would hold off on any more trades until Round 19 (Week 1 of finals) & then do a 2 for 1 trade. Your 7th defender Nathan Grima has done well to average 66 points per game, but you need to upgrade him to a premium defender (e.g. Brendon Goddard or Paul Duffield) to bolster your defence. You could consider offloading Stephen Hill or Ryan Houlihan instead of Grima, depending on what is the most appropriate option at the time.
To free up sufficient cash to make this trade, I would recommend offloading either Liam Anthony or Daniel Rich (you’ll need to make that call prior to Round 19). I’d keep one of these two as your 6th midfielder & sell the other for a cheap playing midfielder who could be used as an emergency in the finals. It’s worth noting here that Beau Muston was named in the best players for Box Hill last weekend, so he could still return to AFL action in 2009.
- TRADE 3 -Hold this trade until either Round 21 or Round 22 to cover for an injury. By following my recommendation above, you should have approximately $150,000 - $200,000 in the bank to make your final trade. This means that you’ll be able to select an absolute gun with your final trade, to replace an injured premium.
If you do not pick up any injuries to your premiums between now & Round 22, insert either Dane Swan or Nick Riewoldt to finish off your team in style.
Good luck!
PART 2 (NEW):
Hidden gem Week 1: Tom Lynch - St. Kilda - Forward - $102,600
Tom Lynch was drafted by the Saints with pick 13 in the 2008 National Draft. Lynch was recruited from the Sandringham Dragons as a 192cm, 85kg forward, in the mould of Ryan O’Keefe from Sydney.
While Lynch has played the majority of his under age footy as a fast & hard leading forward, he has the endurance to play midfield (he was 9th overall in the beep test at the 2008 draft camp) & the versatility to play defence.
Lynch was co - captain of the Vic Metro Under 18 team in the 2008 Under 18 National Championships, where he averaged 13.5 disposals, 5 marks & 1.5 goals per game.
Lynch has been super impressive for Sandringham in the VFL this season, having been named in their best players numerous times, as well as being a regular goal kicker. In Lynch’s most recent game 2 weeks ago, he kicked 4 goals in a losing side against Collingwood (Sandringham had the bye last weekend).
One thing I like about Lynch is that he can be selected in your dreamteam as a “forward”. As we all know, there is always an abundance of cheap midfield options to select, but it can be tricky selecting a quality under priced forward.
In summing up, despite Lynch’s very impressive form at VFL level this season, he is unlikely to make his AFL debut in 2009 because St. Kilda is flying. While this is not great news for Lynch, it is great news for dreamteamers, because we will be able to pick him up for a bargain price in 2010. What’s more, by then he’ll have two pre - seasons under his belt.
Please feel free to post a comment to let me know your thoughts on the new section. Please also advise if you’ll be considering Tom Lynch in your dreamteam in 2010.
Thanks & good luck!
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11 Comments on Alligator Pav
Nice pick (Phil Davis another possible forward), I think this should really be broken down further to,
“mid priced gems” which is players that should be 200-300k and could be worth a look at. Rick Ladson (defender) is one i will watch over the pre-season, 230k mark if he doesn’t get a discount (hopefully he does).
“rookie/rookie priced” which is your new draft picks, and the rookies like Lynch that hasn’t played. (Nick Heyne is also one i will watch if he can get close to a spot in the side).
Chad
I quite like this site, and think you lads deserve more traffic, but quite frankly, this advice is amateurish.
Whilst I agree that he needs to hold his trades, improve his 7th back - which he has cash to do with one trade - and add a premium with the third (injuries allowing), your advice to sell one of Rich / Anthony makes no sense.
He has great coverage in backs and forwards, and only one in the centre. You tell him to downgrade one of Rich and Anthony to leave only an untried rookie in the mids for reserve? Madness.
He should sell one of his two bench players on the forwards or backs. Then, if injuries allows it, he can upgrade Rich / Anthony to a Swan / Hayes / Montagna and still have a gun reserve in the mids.
Do you think anyone wants to rely on Clarko to bring Muston back in and keep him? This is the same knobend that played him Muston a tagger AFTER two brilliant displays as a talented outside footballer. Suprise, suprise, not as good = dropped.
Madness, mate.
SammyH, this isn’t my site or advice i am a guest just like you :)
Thanks for the great feedback Chad.
We will consider breaking down our “hidden gems” further as per your advice.
I’ll also be keeping a very close eye on Rick Ladson (great choice) & Nick Heyne for 2010.
However, I’m lukewarm on Phil Davis as a viable dreamteam option. There is no doubt about his talent, I just wonder how an 18 year old (19 next month), 195cm, 85 kg key position player will score points consistently in 2010.
Sammy H
Glad to hear your take on my article. It’s always great to get feedback, regardless of whether the feedback is positive, negative or in your case, critical.
The reason why I recommended selling Liam Anthony or Daniel Rich is quite simple. By Round 19, I expect both of these boys to be priced around the $280,000 - $300,000 mark.
On the other hand, I expect Mitch Brown to be priced around the $240,000 - $250,000 mark.
Come finals, I want as much cash as possible in my starting 22, rather than sitting idle on the sidelines. By selling Rich over Brown, you can make an extra $50,000, which can be used on a SCORING premium.
Why not bring in Matthew Broadbent ($86,000) for Daniel Rich ($292,000) & use the $206,000 you save on a SCORING premium? Broadbent is more than capable of scoring 60 - 70 points per game, which is more than adequate as a reserve.
In addition, I challenge you to find me a SUITABLE forward option, priced under $100,000 to replace Mitch Brown with.
As for Muston, my comment was that he could return to AFL action in 2009 if he maintains his current form. I stand by this comment & we’ll find out if I am correct in the fullness of time.
As for calling Alistair Clarkson a “knobend”, I find this offensive. I’m not sure if you are aware, but Clarko is the 2008 premiership coach. Please respect the great man & refrain from using such juvenile terms, as they have no place on our site.
Thank you & good luck to Alligator Pav!
Phil Davis a chance to play this week since Scott Stevens is ment to have a corked calf. So that ruin his 2010 price unless he plays 1 or 2 games like danger and otten did last year and then can start at 110k and be a good bench warmer =)
In fairness, knobend is a kind term after pretty much everyone made a move to get Muston only to have his role change the week we all got him!
I must admit, as I read the article this morning I was thinking I’d be dead against downgrading Rich or Anthony at this stage of the year. Upgrade is certainly a viable option, but I don’t like the idea of downgrading excellent bench cover. Late in the year, a good sub is just as good as a trade.
From looking at Alligator Pav’s team I actually see all the money tied up in the back bench. Between the last three backs you’re not getting much scoring, but you are getting around $470K between two of them. Personally I’d downgrade one (Post or Broadbent?) which creates a little less than $400K to spend on a defender. Leaving a bit of cash to play with for your last trade would be pretty wise though.
I completely agree with Ben about forward options though. Unless something changes drastically, the cupboard looks very bare. But I am definitely more a fan of a defensive shuffle to get that seventh defender and then hopefully use that last trade down the track for a mid upgrade (leaving you with one of Rich/Anthony as bench cover).
Hey guys,
I am the coach of Alligator Pav and I must admit this is some good discussion on my team. Thanks to all, I have a lot to think over in the coming weeks.
As we know too well and all too often DT can throw an unexpected curve ball, despite the best laid plans and strategies, so I think all suggestions for the next few rounds are extremely useful especially at this point in time, and looking forward to a couple of weeks down track.
I can definitely see Ben’s point on the downgrade trades through the midfield, bringing in a playing rookie and generating maximum cash within my scoring 22. Especially because at the end of the day if you think about it, if one of my premium mids goes down come finals, I will probably prefer to trade rather than take the emergency score anyway, especially if he is out for multiple games. Often DT does come down to having a roll of the dice, especially when trades are minimal.
However, having said this, at the same time I think you Sammy, and especially Dan, both have very valid arguments too. I like Dan’s thoughts about offloading one of my reserve backs to upgrade my seventh, and then the advantage that follows from holding on to Anthony/Rich on the bench in the middle. I can see I am going to have to crunch some numbers in the coming weeks.
Sammy, also before you get too critical of Clarkson, let’s not forget that his objectives are unknown but i think its safe to say they are probably not DT oriented. Having said that imo i agree that the Hawks are a better side with Muston in full flight (and not as a tagger)!
Thanks again and keep up the great work Ben! Cheers to all for the input
Bad news for the Alligator Pav’s with Josh Fraser being ruled out for 2-3 weeks. http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,25824147-23211,00.html?from=public_rss
This makes things very interesting. Can you afford to carry his 0’s into the finals? Jake Spencer has played two games in a row for Casey and Jamar is out injured now, so maybe he’s not too far away.
That is a prick of a situation, but I suppose it’s the risk you take with Josh Fraser, who hasn’t been traditionally durable.
BTW, with Ablett under an injury cloud DO NOT name him vice captain. That goes for anyone under an injury cloud. If your captain misses imagine having your vice captain miss too!
Jake Spencer is’nt going to play. Dean Bailey said as much today, he’s just coming back from injury and they want to get more game time into him at Casey.
Which unfortunately means that after a few weeks of having a decent ruckman my Dees are forced to bring back that knobend Paul Johnson to lose the ruck, not contest the hard ball, make really stupid decisions with the ball and probably get run down from behind a couple of times.
sigh.
Spewing!!! Yea Fraser has definitely thrown a spanner in the works!! Cheers for that Dan. 2-3 weeks that’s tricky too… looks like im going to have to use a trade on that eventually now also. Ben’s submit your team post from last week suddenly has a lot more relevance to my team now too.
Yea BigHughie, I heard Bailey say Spencer was no chance too (not that it really helps the Fraser situation) but the cover would have been handy.
Once again cheers for the input guys
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