Footy Tragic
AH YEP/Hidden Gem
NEW TO FOOTY TRAGIC
The “Submit Your Team” section is now broken up into two parts:
- PART 1 – The “Submit Your Team” section as per normal;
- PART 2 -The NEW section where I unearth a hidden gem who I expect to make an impact in 2010. These players are under priced because they have been in the AFL system for 3 years or less (this week I have extended it to 5 years) and are still trying to establish themselves as AFL footballers. I’m looking for the next Andy Otten, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitchell Brown or Taylor Walker.
PART 1:
Let’s get ready to rumble!!! The finals are upon us and it’s time to sort the men from the boys. Hours upon hours of research, studying the pre season form, monitoring club injury lists and identifying talented young rookies has hopefully got you into the top 8 of your private leagues. It’s now time to use those trades you have been saving up, to crush your mates in Week 1 of the finals.
View AH YEP’s Team
Round 18 Score: 2,142
Current Overall Ranking: 489
Trades Left: 4
Remaining Salary Cap: $12,200
Dear Ah Yep,
Thank you for submitting your team.
I have identified three problem areas that need attention:
PROBLEM 1 – Your 7th defender – Nick Suban has done a great job averaging 52 points per game this year, but you can’t carry any passengers during the finals. On the other hand, Peter Burgoyne has been pathetic this season and has not played since Port Adelaide’s Round 15 loss to Melbourne. I don’t see Burgoyne returning this week either after the Power’s impressive win against Hawthorn last week.
PROBLEM 2 – Your 6th midfielder – Paul Hasleby has been solid in 2009 with an average of 85 points per game, but he seems to be running on fumes at the moment, with an average of just 73 points over the last 4 weeks.
PROBLEM 3 – Your 8th forward – Hayden Ballantyne is a great 8th forward, but why didn’t he just cop the 1 week penalty from the match review panel? He challenged the ruling, was found guilty at the tribunal and is now out for 2 weeks, so frustrating!
I can’t rectify all three of these problems this week, so I’ve focused on the area where I think you can pick up the most points this week, problem 2, the midfield. I’m hoping to get you an additional 50 – 60 points this week, as well as freeing up some more cash for your last two trades.
Dane Swan has been in magnificent form this season and is my tip for the 2009 Brownlow Medal. Swan has played all 18 games this season and has averaged an amazing 123 points per game. Every time I watch Collingwood play, I ask myself the same question: Who is on Dane Swan? The answer is usually nobody. The reason why is because Swan is the hardest running midfielder in the AFL. Swan will gut run for 7 minutes flat out, running from the back pocket to the forward pocket and back again, before sprinting to the bench for a 2 minute spell. When the 2 minutes is up, Swan sprints back onto the field and does the same thing again.
Another important aspect to Swan’s game is his pace. Swan has an ungainly running style, to go with an awkward kick. However, do not be fooled as Swan is one of the five quickest players over 20 metres at Collingwood. One last point on Swan, he’s been clearly the number 1 Dreamteam player at the moment and you need to get him into your side immediately.
Keep Liam Anthony as your midfield emergency.
PROPOSED ACTION THIS WEEK (WEEK 1 OF FINALS):
OUT: Peter Burgoyne ($283,000) and Paul Hasleby ($325,800);
IN: Callum Wilson ($75,300) and Dane Swan ($499,400).
I’ve chosen Callum Wilson simply because he is cheap and likely to play the remaining 4 games for West Coast in 2009. With a score of 55 points in his first game, he is more than adequate as a 9th defender.
PROPOSED ACTION NEXT WEEK (WEEK 2 OF FINALS):
I’m assuming you are gunning for private league glory (you are too far behind the leaders to win the car). If you win your final this week and earn one weeks break (if you finished between 1st and 4th), do not trade next week.
PROPOSED ACTION THE FOLLOWING WEEK (WEEK 3 OF FINALS):
Upgrade Nick Suban to the best defender you can afford, using surplus cash freed up from my recommendation above, this will rectify problem 1.
Hayden Ballantyne will have served his 2 week suspension by now and should return, thus rectifying problem 3.
Finally, hold your final trade for Round 22, in case of injury.
Good luck!
PART 2 (NEW):
Hidden gem Week 3: Max Bailey – Hawthorn – Ruck – $86,600
This week I set myself a challenge to select a potential 3rd or 4th ruck option. My first two hidden gems have been a forward (Tom Lynch) and a midfielder (Luke Shuey). I could have easily written about yet another $86,000 midfielder who could step up in 2010, but as we all know, midfielders are a dime a dozen in Dreamteam.
Max Bailey was drafted by the Hawks with pick 18 in the 2005 National Draft. Bailey was recruited from West Perth and is now listed as a 206cm, 107kg ruckman. While 2010 will be Bailey’s 5th season at AFL level, given the amount of time he has spent out injured and the fact that ruckman take longer to develop, I still see Bailey as a young talent on the rise.
Bailey made his AFL debut in his first season, playing 4 games towards the end of 2006. Hawthorn were delighted with Bailey’s progress in his first 12 months at the club and started grooming him for the number 1 ruck position. Unfortunately, Bailey has not played an AFL match since, due to rupturing his right ACL twice. The first happened in the 2007 pre season, the second during a match for Box Hill reserves in June 2008.
It gives me great pleasure to say that Bailey has played 4 of the last 5 games for Box Hill seniors. The fact that Bailey is back out on the park again playing footy is great news for both the man himself and the Hawthorn Football club.
While I’ll openly admit that Bailey is the most speculative of my three hidden gems thus far, consider the following in relation to Hawthorn’s current ruck options:
- Robert Campbell is an honest toiler, but at 199cms he is undersized against the likes of Aaron Sandilands and Dean Cox. He also struggles to keep up with the new breed of ruckman like Matt Kruezer, Mitch Clark and Patrick Ryder;
- Simon Taylor is a clumsy, bungling dinosaur. I’d like to see a ruck combination of Brent Renouf and Max Bailey for Hawthorn in 2010. Renouf has impressed me in his short AFL career and he is well worth persisting with. Just look at how much Clark and Ryder have improved this year, after being given opportunities due to injuries to more noted ruckmen in their respective sides.
With many dreamteams burnt in 2009 with injuries to dreamteam favourites in Dean Cox, David Hille and Josh Fraser, the need to have solid 3rd and 4th ruck options in 2010 is crucial.
While Bailey is an obvious risk given his knee injuries, make no mistake of the fact that he has all the attributes needed to become a successful AFL player. If he can put together a full pre season and show some good form in the practice matches, he could be a very nice fit for your dreamteam in 2010. Good luck Max!
Please feel free to post a comment, we welcome all feedback.
Please also advise if you’ll be considering Max Bailey for your dreamteam in 2010.
16 Comments on AH YEP/Hidden Gem
For ruck options, I think my Port Adelaide will surely be the club to look at. Lade should retire which leaves a few options.
Matt Lobbe was our first round pick 2 years ago, 86k mobile ruckman, need a bit more beef but might get a did. one i will be watching.
Johnathon Giles 86k could take the #2 ruck spot
The other one that is a chance, Jackson Trengove was pick #22 last year (touted as top 5 but fell down because of injury). Recovered from that, in SANFL at the moment. Classed as a DEF/RUC by VS this year, but more a CHB/CHF. 86k, keep an eye on him too.
Just further on the rucks, Seaby or Charman for 200kish one to consider? (Seaby if he trades to another club where he will get more chance, or Charman if he is fit and ready to go in 2010).
They are not huge scorers, but is the extra 100k worth a 50-60 average cover?
Hey thanks for the great advice Ben. Appreciate it. However I’m still a bit worried about playing suban because you said in the next 1-2 weeks upgrade him to the best defender you can afford but i would only be able to afford a 270k defender which isnt anyone good so i probably wouldnt bother.
so the other option ive come up with is:
anthony starting for haselby = 85 points
+ bringing in enright for suban after trading out purgoyne = 95 points
=180 points per week
as opposed to swan instead of haselby = 130 points + suban = 40-65 points
= 170-195 points
the second option that you suggested i think has the potential to do better as swan can score so massively but if i do the other option i have enough money to trade out haselby for pendlebury/hayes/corey/dal santo/selwood etc. the next week which ends up being
180 points for first week then an extra 30 points with pendlebury instead of anthony = 210 points for the rest of the season with 1 trade left
as opposed to
about 170-195 points for 3 weeks and then using my last two trades to upgrade suban getting about 230 points that week
that ends up favouring the 1st option by about 40 points over the rest of the season
thoughts on that would be greatly appreciated by anyone and everyone.
Chad,
Good point about the Port Adelaide back up rucks with Brendan Lade coming towards the end of his career.
I’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on Lobbe and Trengove over the pre season.
I don’t think I’d go for Charman or Seaby at a price of $200,000, unless they were dominant in the pre season.
Personally, I’d prefer Leuenberger. Leuenberger has more upside because he is much younger and he is still in development mode.
Ideally, I’d like Leuenberger as my 3rd ruck and Bailey as my 4th.
Im very keen on Matthew Warnock as a third ruck option – he’s a good scorer and will be dirt cheap after missing the full season!
Samwise, i like this option too! Suban is a worry in that spot, and probably your weakest link! But, you do really need Swan to win the finals! Therefore, if you can work out away to solve those two problems, your in business!!
yeah i know swan is amazing but i dont think you can say you must have him to win the finals as im sure someone like pendlebury can match it with him for a few weeks and thus i would do better without him considering what i have to do to get him in.
so i think this week it is
out: purgoyne, suban
in : wilson, enright(most likely)
actually now that i think about it. do you think i would be better to upgrade haselby this week instead of suban? might get me more points but i would also have to check the break evens of everyone
Samwise,
You make a valid point and the two options you suggested are both viable.
I guess it comes back to your priorities. Is your main focus private league glory, or the highest overall ranking you can possibly get?
My recommendation is more suitable if you are aiming for private league glory, because I’m setting your team up for a big week 1. By bringing Swan in for week 1 of the finals, you are sending out a strong message to your opponents that you are the man to beat.
Assuming you win week 1, you could then hold fire the following week by not trading (with a weeks break), then load up your team for week 3 of the finals. You could potentially do another 2 for 1 trade here to get a premium 7th defender, but that would leave you exposed in Round 22 if one of your premiums gets injured. The flipside is that this is the most aggressive approach you could take and promises the highest return if it pays off.
On the other hand, your suggestion about saving approximately $100,000 by bringing in Pendlebury, Hayes, Corey etc. rather than Swan, and spending the extra money on your 7th back is also valid. In my opinion, this is a more conservative approach, but it too has merit. I’m not a fan of Corey Enright though. I think he is an ordinary player who gets carried along for the ride in a very good Geelong side. Ryan Hargrave would be my choice.
At the end of the day, it all comes back to making the right call, at the right time. Without the luxury of a crystal ball, we cannot be 100% sure which call is the right one. Having said that, we can weigh up all the available information and make an informed decision based on the facts. My advice to you is go with your gut instinct and back your own judgement. As the old saying goes:
“There are two things in life you never get back: time & opportunity”.
“Matthew Warnock”
Surely you mean Robert. I certainly dont like the idea of the Demons playing Matthew in the ruck.
Matthew Warnock in the ruck. Wouldn’t Melbourne just call that “experimentation”?
Ben,
I think i will go with the option of not getting swan because of the points you raised.
i dont like the fact that i will have no trades for the last round of finals, if i make it – i think that is terrible for trying to win finals. (i am trying for overall ranking and finals as im in bigfooty div3 and saints div1 so both are in top 20 leagues and would love to win one of them)
i’ll just pray swan doesn’t do ridiculously like it seems he will and that the gun i pick up instead does well. who would you suggest i get?
i also am unsure who i will get as a defender i just said enright for the meantime but i will definitely look at players like hargrave before lockout.
God im bad with names… lol… yes, ROBERT Warnock!
“Wouldn’t Melbourne just call that “experimentation”?”
Geelong throw Mooney in the ruck or Carlton put Brett Thornton forward and they’re masterstrokes, Melbourne put Warnock in the ruck and it’s tanking.
yeah I didn’t think that was tanking. Yes you wouldn’t do that if you are trying to make the finals but you should do it when you aren’t because you should find out more about your players, especially when bailey has such a young list.
also, now that i have riewoldt, lovett, montagna and goddard out i dont know whether i should go through with option2.
i was thinking if purgoyne is named in final 22 then i would do the same thing but instead of purgoyne i would upgrade lovett. think that is alright? and what would you do if purgoyne doesnt play?
Samwise,
Joel Corey, Brent Stanton, Brad Sewell and Marc Murphy are all viable options priced under $392,000. For further information about Joel Corey, check out Dan’s “Player of the Week” article.
Also, I’m thinking Peter Burgoyne is unlikely to make the final 22 this week. I watched their game last week and I’m expecting them to be unchanged. Hartlett, Logan and Salter appear to be locks. Davenport is the only player who may get dropped.
The changes at St. Kilda have thrown a massive spanner in the works for many teams this week.
thanks to injuries it looks like i am going to do purgoyne to wilson and put him on for fisher/goddard along with suban and pearce. then upgrade lovett to didak also this week. then next week upgrade suban to enright and have 1 trade and like 50k left for last injury trade and keep haselby/anthony playing.
thoughts on that?
Samwise,
The changes you have mentioned above are solid, as is your strategy of keeping $50,000 in the bank for your final trade.
Personally, I’d take Hargrave over Enright.
Good luck mate.
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