Footy Tragic
Smokies
View Smokies’ Team
Round 9 Score: 2,041
Current Overall Ranking: 18,583
Trades Left: 8
Remaining Salary Cap: $221,000
Dear Smokies,
Thank you for submitting your team. Firstly, I must congratulate you for selecting Jordan Russell prior to Round 1. Clearly an inspired selection that has paid off with handsome dividends! On the negative side of the equation, I’m very concerned that you have only eight trades remaining with 13 rounds still to be played. Ideally, you should aim to have one trade remaining for every round remaining.
After looking closely at your 2010 trading history, I am also concerned about some of the players you bought into your team through trades. You have clearly jumped on the bandwagon with certain players such as Mark Seaby prior to Round 3 and Kyle Reimers prior to Round 4. While you were not to know that these two players would get injured shortly after selecting them, these two players should never have been bought in at all. Seaby played one brilliant game in Round 2 and did little else, while Reimers is simply not a viable dreamteam option due to his chronic inconsistency. Neither of these two players lasted for more than four weeks in your team, which effectively means you wasted four trades (two to get them in and two to get them out).
Your team now is very solid with a complete midfield and ruck division. Ideally you would make another four upgrades (two in defence and two in the forward line), but you may have to settle for two more upgrades because of your lack of remaining trades. The chances of you running out of trades early are very high, so you must use your remaining trades very wisely. Unfortunately injuries are inevitable, so you must retain at least six trades to cover for injuries.
With no quality cash cow options priced under $120,000 set to soar in price after two games this weekend, this week is a good opportunity to hold fire and save your valuable trades. Furthermore, you have quality emergency cover in Webberley, Bastinac and Gumbleton (Dangerfield should be in your starting seven in the forward line).
I note in your e-mail to us that you are considering trading out Gumbleton for Pavlich this week. My fear is that this move could potentially end up being another case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted. Given the fact you are out of contention for the car and I assume gunning for private league glory, I believe it would be best to wait three weeks and then make a decision on inserting another premium forward. Pavlich has been brilliant thus far in 2010, but you need the player who will dominate from Rounds 19 – 22, not Rounds 1 – 9. Waiting three weeks will allow you to assess other quality forward options you may not have yet considered.
My message is don’t just lock in a player simply because he scored well last week. You don’t get points retrospectively for players you trade into your side.
Good luck!

7 Comments on Smokies
Ben, you have mentioned a couple of times the idea of keeping one trade for every round remaining… What is the idea behind that?
I wouldn’t presume to understand Ben’s reasoning, but common sense would seem to suggest that if you have one trade every round, you can use it as a contingency in the event of injury….
I’m not sure I subscribe to the whole ’1 trade per round’ thing. Especially if you’re just going for private league glory.
For small injuries (1-2 weeks), thats why you have a bench, to cover them. Long-term injuries to premiums simply do not happen every round of the season.
On another note, what do people with Jonathan Brown think about benching him? I like to be in the long haul for premiums as they will no doubt hit form again, but if he is playing injured and only scoring low, I have bench players that will outscore him. Anyone have a gut feel what he’ll be scoring vs. the Pies this week?
Bluebottle, my reason for keeping one trade for every one week remaining is to cover for missing players later in the season.
Take Geelong for example, every man and his dog has Gary Ablett and Paul Chapman. Expect them both to be “rested” at some stage between Rounds 19 – 22 (DT finals). Maybe even Round 22 against West Coast at Skilled Stadium. How would you fancy playing in your private league Grand Final with no Ablett or Chapman and no trades left?
Down the other end of the ladder, expect teams such as Richmond, Hawthorn, Adelaide and Essendon to put their players out to pasture early to prepare for 2011. After all, what is the point in risking superstars like Hodge, Franklin, Tippett, Watson etc. when you are no chance of playing finals?
Injuries happen, as do “restings” and mid to late season surgery to prepare players for next season.
DT premierships are won in August, not May.
I found the best players to buy are those playing in teams trying to get top 4 or battling for the 8 as they wont rest players. Who do people think i should start on this week, Trengove at skilled or howlett?
To help explain Ben’s theory, it is worth commenting that 1-2 week injuries later in the season are just as bad as a LTI. And knowing Ben and his theories well, a lot of his opinions and theories come from stats of previous years which prove his case. Look at the Prospectus’s ideal team from 2009 – they make several late season changes due to the resting of stars from St.Kilda and Geelong – there is no point covering for Ablett or Chapman or Lenny with a bench option for a week in the finals, only to lose week one by 20 points…
So, whilst i’m probably not as much of a theory buff as Ben, i can understand the need to leave trades for the end of the year, as should everyone. I think that his statement regarding one per week is more a rule of thumb than a rule in general.
For what it’s worth, my one theory for the past three years has been that the forward line wins you games – i have always focussed on creating the best forward line possible, and typically it has paid dividends… unfortunately, this year the forwards have been less than impressive with Riewoldt injured, Brown on one leg and the likes of O’Keefe, Gia, Higgins and Pav, all playing inconsistently…
Hi guys, i’m still undecided on my defender upgrade this week and was probably leaning towards Goddard at this stage. However, purely from a “league glory” perspective, i have noticed that basically all of my opponents have him and i’m starting to wonder whether picking him would give me any real advantage over someone like Scotland who is capable of scoring just as well and is more unique at least..
Only problem is, i’m not sure i’m entirely comfortable with having 4 Blues …being, Scotland, Carrots, Murphy and Gibbs?
Too many eggs in one basket you think?
James Kelly is also up there on my list and still very keen on Sam Fisher to free up some cash, Toby! ;)
Leave a comment on Smokies
You must be logged in to post a comment.
RSS feed for comments on this post · TrackBack URI