Footy Tragic
Bombs Ahoy
View Bombs Ahoy‘s Team
Round 7 Score: 1,938
Current Overall Ranking: 37,373
Trades Left: 14
Remaining Salary Cap: $60,000
Dear Bombs Ahoy,
Thank you for submitting your team. I have noted from your e-mail that your main objective is private league glory and that you are currently sitting 9th in your league.
With 14 trades remaining, I recommend using three of these trades over the next two weeks. There is no point saving these trades for the finals of your private league if you are still in 9th position after Round 18. In addition, I strongly believe that you really need to finish in the top 4 of your private league to have a serious crack at winning the premiership. The double chance you gain with a top 4 position is invaluable. In fact, when it comes to your private league, finishing 4th after Round 18 is just as good as finishing on top because there is no home ground advantage in dreamteam!
The obvious problem you have this week is the injured Jared Brennan. With Brennan’s ankle injury likely to sideline him for 3 – 6 weeks (depending on which article you read) the decision is simple, he has to go.
My recommendation this week:
OUT: Jared Brennan ($348,200);
IN: Alan Didak ($392,700).
My reason for recommending Didak is simple, he is a proven DT gun and he is the best forward you can afford. There is no stand out cash cow who is about to play his 3rd game this weekend, so I recommend using one trade this week and two trades next week.
Next week, I recommend dumping Barry Hall and one of Matt Maguire or Ben Nason. I understand that Hall has a breakeven of 120 points this week but I would prefer to use this weekend to have a second look at Brad Sheppard and Jeromey Webberley. You can then bring in a gun premium forward for Hall using the cash obtained from the Nason / Maguire to Sheppard / Webberley trade.
These recommendations will set you up for a strong run home and a place in the top 8 (or hopefully top 4) of your private league.
Good luck!
13 Comments on Bombs Ahoy
I like this analysis – can I just ask, if he had the cash to trade up to Pavlich, would you do that over Didak?
I am seemingly in a similar situation (as I’m sure a lot of people are), but have plenty of cash in the bank (240K).
Acidfiend, Didak and Pavlich are both DT guns so assuming they both stay fit and healthy, you would expect both of them to average 100 points per game.
The one you ultimately choose comes back to your personal preference. You want the highest scoring player from Rounds 8 – 22, not the highest scoring player from Rounds 1 – 7. Back your gut instinct and don’t be swayed by previous scores.
Pavlich is in red hot form at present, but Jonathon Brown was equally red hot in the first two rounds of the season. The Pav is great, but he won’t continue to score 120 points per week.
Interesting analysis – I must work out how to submit my team!
In the meantime, I would appreciate some advice on what to do this week – I’ve got over 300K in the bank and am deciding between the following:
1. 1 x Trade – Upgrade Relton to Pav (leaving only 30K in the bank)
2. 1 x Trade – Upgrade Rockliff to Pav – if they achieve their breakevens this week, they will both go up by a similar amount (leaving 100K+ in the bank)
3. 2 x Trades – Upgrade Brennan to Pav and Martin to Hayes (or Swan)
Which of these scenarios would you choose? Are there any obvious flaws or do you have a better suggestion? TIA :-)
@juzz I would pick up swan seeing as he’s hit his bottom price and pav for Brennan is an upgrade if Brennan is out for 6+ not 3, if it is three then rockliff should suffice as backup and will get games. I don’t think relton straight is a good choice he may get one or two more games for the year bu is more likely to spend the year as your 9th fwd. Rockliff still has money to make and more importantly he isn’t injured, if you trade him to pav then another of your forwards get injures you’ll hav to trade again to cover it. (assuming a Brennan/relton bench)If you don’t trade rockliff this week in a couple he’ll be much closer to a goodes/rok/Sylvia who are all set price drops.
Some thoughts on Palmer would be helpful, I think he’s gametime is set to ruse from it’s current 68% leading to higher dr scores as he a magnet, coming back from acl but he hasn’t missed a preseason seeing as he did it Ed 6 last year and was back for this years preseason so he’s fitness isn’t an issue more Likely freo being cautious. Barlow/hase/pav/duff/mundy are attracting the tags but I’d only keep him until gaj has a couple bad games or finals so is it worth the trade to bring him in just to trade him out again later? It’d be one of jetta/Martin turning into him. Also going to downgrade hall to jaensch even though I don’t like his security there art many other choices, Rohan maybe?
PODSIADLY OUT!!!!!! WHAT!?!?!?!?!
groin soreness….
@Toby – groin soreness is the word on Pods… Makes my Trading decision clearer as I can’t fit Relton, Brennan and Pods all on the bench :-(
Other team changes or non-changes of interest (to me at least!):
Webberley named on field; Hams named on field; Howlett named on extended bench – at least we’ll know before lockout if he is in or out and lastly, both Rockliff and Rohan have retained their spots in their respective teams.
Teams are up kids!
Joker, I like Palmer, and your game time stat makes me like him even more! Ive watched all his games this year so far – he really is getting a lot of the ball, and seems to have worked hard on his disposal in the off-season, meaning that his teammates will trust him more with it in his hands (although not good enough to tag!).
I like all of your theories you mentioned too btw!
Thanks Toby, pods being out has kinda thrown my planned trades this week but I think Palmer is still going into my team, i see it as risky but hopefully it pays off. Also whispers of chapman missing and if he does I hope Duncan comes in.
hey guys, just a quick one…. rockliff (geelong) or fyfe (collingwood) to play for pods.
and captains choice out of Mitchell (tigers) Boyd (swans) or Gia (named in the ruck)
@rembrandt – I’d probably give Mitchell the big ‘C’, but would be seeing if I could find some historical evidence of his performance in the first match back from injury.
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