Footy Tragic
The Forwards
Note: To access Footy Tragic pre-season content from 2010, click on the following category links listed on the right hand side of your window:
Dans Draftees
Toby’s Team Summaries
Tuney’s Tuition
Weekend Wrap-Up
Dear Footy Tragics, welcome to the last week of the pre-season and first week of the real deal! Over the next four days, Footy Tragic will help you make some of the biggest decisions you will have to make over the next 12 months, and with our three part series starting today, Toby, Dan and Ben will each look at one of the on-field positions and who has shone through this pre-season. These wraps are aiming to show which players are coming into the season in great form - not necessarily those names who have been part and parcel with dream teams of years past. Also, it is worth commenting that yesterday was Footy Tragic’s first birthday, so it goes without saying, we wouldn’t still be here one year on, without you, the reader. So thankyou and may you keep reading and enjoying the content on www.footytragic.com!
Forwards:
PRICE: $350,000+
Looking Good:
- Ryan O’Keefe: Has been one of the most impressive players all pre-season, and of all players to play three or more games, his DT average is the highest with a very good 106.3. The great bonus of picking up a player such as O’Keefe in the forward line is that he is in fact playing as a midfielder. He showed us last year that he is capable of some massive scores, and already this pre-season he has pulled in a 150 against North Melbourne, showing he has lost none of his ability.
- Daniel Giansiracusa: Came into the NAB cup in excellent shape after a fantastic pre-season. Fortunately, he was able to convert his ability on the track into form on the field and averaged 99 points across four NAB games (the highest of any Bulldog). With the arrival of Barry Hall into the Dogs forward line, the likes of Gia will be forced to play much further upfield, in turn equalling more possessions and tackles.
- Nick Riewoldt: He is the premium priced forward in DT competition, but this pre-season has proven to be worth every cent. He played three games with limited TOG in each, yet still managed to average 92 points. He looks so fit and should easily average over 100 points this year if he stays fit.
Avoid:
- Brendon Fevola: Played three games in the Lions new forward structure, yet Brent Staker managed to kick more goals than him. The worry when he came to the Lions was that the Brown/Fevola combo would cause one of the two to have less impact, and there was never a chance this would be Brown! This NAB series, Fev has kicked only a few goals and has averaged 48 DT points, playing full TOG in each. Fev needs to be kicking goals to get his DT points as he doesn’t get many possessions, nor tackle. Although fit, I would avoid him this year more than most – Brown will simply take away too much of his supply.
- Matthew Pavlich: Has moved back to the forward line which initially looking like it would re-invigorate his Dream Team game. Unfortunately, this seems not to be the case – in watching a few of the Docker’s games, they are simply bombing it high and long to him, causing him to ALWAYS be double-teamed. In turn, this has caused a pre-season average of just 57 points – nowhere near enough for his high price-tag.
Overrated:
- Lance Franklin: After getting off to a massive start with a 92-point DT game against Richmond in round one of the NAB cup, Franklin’s form seemed to drop away, averaging just 53 points over the next three games – a bit of a worry. Whilst we know that Franklin is a freak footballer, the worry is whether we will get a repeat of his 2009 season where he never really found form. Adding to the woes of selecting Franklin in 2010 is that he is suspended in round one. I don’t know the definitive answer about picking Franklin, but I can tell you I am certainly concerned with his selection in my team – especially with players like Higgins and Gia who could be selected instead.
PRICE: $200,000 – $350,000
Looking Good:
- Robbie Gray: Played only the last two games, but was fantastic in both. Finally, after much praying and angry letters to Chocco Williams, Gray has been moved to the midfield. He has the potential to average close to 85, which is much better than what his price suggests. So far this pre-season he has averaged 77 points.
- Barry Hall: It is hard not to mention BBBH – he has surprisingly been the player of the NAB series, kicking 17 goals in 2.5 games! This huge scoring has resulted in an average of 92 points – very good for this price-point. As discussed in an earlier article, he is a player with heaps of upside, but also, plenty of potential downside too.
- Kurt Tippett: Tippett was one of the big improvers of 2009, and if his NAB series is anything to go by, 2010 will see him get even better again. His past two games have yielded scores of 100 and 83 (against Melbourne and Carlton), suggesting he will be a big scorer again this year – but hopefully a bit more consistent than in 2009. Also of note is that plenty of the Crows better players played very little part in their NAB series, indicating that they will be a much better team than their pre-season form has let on. As a full-forward, Tippett’s scores will be greatly improved by the presence of these much better players.
Avoid:
- Brett Burton: He has only played one game this NAB cup and scored an 82 in it, suggesting he is not really out of form. However, the fact he then missed the next three weeks (and will likely miss rounds one and two) with issues surrounding his reconstructed knee, suggests to me that he is a suckers buy this year – I would expect him to be spending a lot of time in the nurse’s office this year – avoid.
- Adam McPhee: Probably one of the worst players of the pre-season competition. For a senior player to come into a team as inexperienced as Fremantle and be the worst player on the field is a massive worry. He has played three games, averaging 56 points, however I think he probably turned every single one of his disposals over to the opposition. Amazingly, he will be lucky to play round one – avoid like the plague.
Overrated:
- Patrick Dangerfield: He hasn’t really been terrible this pre-season, but his average of 57 is probably a bit lower than we would have hoped. He should improve as the season goes on and he gets more game time, but I wouldn’t be overly confident with the numbers he has produced so far.
PRICE: $77,000 – $200,000
Looking Good:
- Sam Wright: Wright has been one of the more impressive North young-guns, averaging a respectable 61 points through the NAB cup. He is still lightly framed, but moves well and plays in a good DT position. The Roos will be giving plenty of responsibility to their young brigade in 2010 meaning that Wright will get plenty of chances.
- Tom Rockliff: Rockliff was drafted as a forward known for his lack of motor, but so far this pre-season he has proven all the doubters wrong, not only spending most of his time in the midfield, but averaging 75 points in the process. He is a good chance to get plenty of games this year, despite the fact the Lions have a very strong on-ball brigade. The fact Travis Johnston has moved to defence will mean that there is a midfield spot up for grabs.
- Cameron Hitchcock: The skinny Port forward was one of the most impressive kids this pre-season, working hard to be elevated to the Power’s senior list for 2010. He has a real spark – a factor that Port looks to be heavily looking for this season. He is a livewire around goals and should be capable of getting some reasonable scores this year (think Nahas of 2009). He averaged 56 points this pre-season – good for a rookie listed player and enough to hopefully see him rise to around $250,000.
Avoid:
- Phil Davis: When Andy Otten ruptured his ACL this pre-season, eyes went to Adelaide’s first pick in the 2008 draft for the solution. Unfortunately, Davis has been unable to show much form at all through the NAB cup, suggesting his name won’t be on the list come round one. He averaged only 19 points across four games and seemed to often be caught by the pace of the game. We may see him later in the year, but I couldn’t imagine him debuting early enough to start him in your team.
- Ryan Murphy: Murphy seems to be the epitome of a decoy forward – he is simply there to take a defender, but rarely does much himself. He has averaged 25 points this pre-season and hasn’t really looked capable of much more. Look elsewhere.
Overrated:
- Trent Dennis-Lane: TDL shone in both of Sydney’s pre-season intraclubs, only to play one NAB game, scoring a poor 24 points. Despite the hype surrounding him pre-NAB, I can’t imagine him playing too many early games – especially with the arrival of Jetta into the Sydney ranks.
Tune in tomorrow for Dan’s wrap of the Rucks and Midfielders.

11 Comments on The Forwards
Great write up as always Toby. Just have on Query, I have had Tippet in and out of my team as I keep changing my opinion on him, I would like to pick him but I am a bit worried he won’t be able to average enough to be worth picking. I think an average of 85 or more is what I would be looking for; do you think he is capable of this?
Hey spoony, I think he will be capable in patches through the year. He showed last year he is capable of pulling in some very Large scores, but being a full forward, he will always pull in the occasional 30-50. That is the same thing troubling me- there is no doubt he will improve on last year and is great value at his current price, but the worry surrounds his consistency. If there is any consolation, it is in the fact he will probably be the highest scoring forward in the $300k – $350k price range. U need to upgrade to Gia of higgins to really step up…
nice write up guys. unfortunately you pretty much named all my players :) agree with the DT Talk boys, i think a lot of teams will be similar this year.
Yea thanks Toby your very right about his constancy, and now you have made me what to take him out again lol. I wish I could upgrade him to Higgins but I can’t find the cash, I can only manage to find enough to upgrade him to someone around the 350k mark and I am not really interested in anyone around there. Oh the last decisions before lockout are always so hard.
I have almost every player in the looking good category as well Chad.
I have a few tough decisions remaining in my forward line. Would appreciate anyones help.
Le Cras or Frankin, or Gray? (want 2 of these)
walker or wright?
and another real gun forward thats not reivoldt or ROK. I have gian but looking to upgrade to secure another 10 points per game.
Cheers
Keep an eye on Carl Peterson from the Hawks! Looking good in that small forward roll. Good mark on the lead for his side. Could replace Mark Williams in the Hawks Forward stucture but can chase.
Slight injury concern and job security a little bit of a concern, but with our injury history, shouldn’t be a problem!
Hey Toby, thoughts on Matt Campbell?
And Adam Goodes while you’re at it :)
Amazing work footytragic.com this preseason (and last year) fellas – keep it up!
Im tempted to bring in Sam Wright as a 7th fwd – will he play 22 games?
Also, Ben Warren; i read your earlier wrap on him (team summaries) and i haven’t been a fan of his scores or his possessions. He tends to only get ~10 or so possessions as a small forward…convince me otherwise!
Hey – looks like a few queries! Good to see!
Tom, Matty Campbell was great in the first two NAB games as he was given plenty of time through the midfield. This resulted in scores of 88 and 71 – definitely a great average for a player only a bit over $200k. At this point in time he became a lock in my team, but unfortunately he followed this up with scores of 31 and 25 – woeful, even for a forward. It brings a real dilemma – i studied plenty of North team boards and hardly found a write-up on him in either game. He definitely played full game time, but my concern is that by him presenting two of these scores (i would have even been a bit concerned with one!) that the difference between his best and worse could be great. Admittedly, at his price you will take inconsistency, but i have come to realise that there is probably some better value players in that price point (balla, Dangerfield, Walker). And whilst he MIGHT work out, at this stage from what we have seen, he is too speculative for me.
Adam Goodes: I don’t like his new role at CHF – in what can normally be a high scoring position, at Sydney this proves to be quite the contrary. This pre-season he was well beaten in his first three games before going to town on Lachie Hansen in the forth. He has always been more of a supercoach player than a DTer anyway. The attraction to Goodes is that he is a great AFL player and has the potential to score in excess of 150 DT points. But the downside is that he is now playing a permanent forward role in one of the lowest scoring teams in history. And don’t be fooled by reasons for his move to the forward line – they say that they need a new forward, but when they are already laden with Jesse White and Bradshaw as key forwards, my mind automatically starts thinking about his troublesome knee and the fact he can probably no longer make it round the ground as easily…
Ben Warren: A no for now – he plays a great game and that is what sucked me in. But the best game i have ever seen him play yielded just 72 points – a worry from a DT perspective. And you are right Patriots, his possessions is the worry. In that game of 72, he kicked four goals and had a number of marks. Whilst he may take his AFL game to another level in 2010, I don’t expect him to be a huge DT improver unfortunately.
As for Sam Wright, i believe he is quite a good pick – his NAB average of 61 is good enough to make some money out of if he took that form into the season. I don’t think he will play 22, but at his price (and what we expect from him), ideally he would play the first 10 or so matches and you would upgrade him to another player at his top value. He is never going to be a keeper, so there is no need to hope for him to be one – treat his position in your team how it should be treated – a higher priced cash-cow
dtmaster: With the worry of making your team like everyone else’s, Gray and Franklin would be my picks. I love LeCras as a player, but cant imagine him improving too much on last year, and at that price you really want an improver, not a mid-scoring keeper. If he moved to the midfield i would be all over him, but unfortunately, the Eagles have no other forward pocket players capable of taking his place, meaning he is stuck there for at least another year.
Hope this helps everyone, and thanks again for reading!
Cheers for the detailed reply Toby! But, was Goodes not playing CHF when he stormed home with those monster scores at the end of the season?
Leave a comment on The Forwards
You must be logged in to post a comment.
RSS feed for comments on this post · TrackBack URI