Footy Tragic

Note: To access Footy Tragic pre-season content from 2010, click on the following category links listed on the right hand side of  your window:

Dans Draftees
Toby’s Team Summaries
Tuney’s Tuition
Weekend Wrap-Up

First of all, Happy Birthday to us! A massive thank you to everyone who has been following us in our first year. We hope you’ve enjoyed what we’ve brought you so far and we look forward to stepping it up again in 2010 and the future.

MIDFIELD

PRICE: $400,000+

Looking good:

Jimmy Bartel ($480,200): Bartel was a bit down on his past couple of years in 2009. After averaging 114 and 113 in consecutive seasons, Bartel was down to 109 last year. I don’t see this as a decline in his game, but just a year where he saw a bit of time in the back line. With the return of Hunt, I expect to see Jimmy back in the midfield on a more permanent basis. IMO he has the best all round DT game in the league – marks, disposals, tackles, can go forward and kick goals – Jimmy ticks a lot of boxes and is an underpriced premium.

Brent Stanton ($443,600): It seems a bit obvious to rave about Stanton after the scores he posted in his two NAB games, but let’s put those into perspective – they were against Richmond and Melbourne. What I want to talk about is the improvement I see in him this year. One thing that’s always plagued Stanton owners (or driven some people away) is his tendency to have absolute shockers. Last year he posted five sub 80 scores, but all were in the first half of the season.  In 2008 he had 8 sub 80′s mixed in with some monster tons. I see him having a shift away from these stinkers and posting elite mid scores more consistently. His average jumped from 93 to 101 from 2008 to 2009 and I see another rise this year. He’s not a brilliant kick, so hopefully opposition are more likely to sit on Prismall, Winderlich or maybe Watson before targeting Stants.

Daniel Cross ($420,900): A little too handball happy, but maniacally tackle happy. While he doesn’t put boot to ball as much as you’d like your gun midfielders to do, I think Crossy understands full well that from a DT perspective tackles are worth more than kicks, so he sets out to hit hard. You’d have to go back to 2006 to find the one time he topped a 100 average in DT. In the last three years he’s averaged 92, 96 and 96 (give or take a little rounding). I expect improvement in the Bulldogs midfield this year, which should equate to more points being shared. I see Cross as a major beneficiary after scoring well in the NAB coming back from surgery on both ankles in the off season.

Avoid:

Before I get to the players, it goes without saying that Juddy is out for the first three weeks! Even though he’s never been a natural DT’er, you specifically need to avoid starting him this year.

Lenny Hayes ($478,500): Please forgive me, Lenny! My favourite ever DT’er and I can’t recommend him this year (yet). He’s had his share of knocks over the years and at his age, wear and tear has to be a bit of a concern. I had him in my team until he copped that knock on the calf against Freo in the NAB. His attack on the contest is fearless, but after so many years of throwing himself in head first how much longer can his body take it? Definitely still has the scoring potential to make me eat my words and the Saints will score well as a unit again, but DT is a young man’s game and Lenny just turned 30…

Shane Tuck ($422,300): Don’t be fooled by his good scoring in the NAB series, Tuck’s job security is constantly an issue. He accumulates well, but doesn’t use it well enough. Under a new coach it’s always going to be hard to say with any conviction, but Richmond seem to be heading in a new direction (as they have been saying so for the last couple of decades) and a not so damaging player at 28 years of age could easily be a coaches scapegoat, which wouldn’t be a first for Tuck. Bit of a soft target to put in this section, I must admit…

Overrated:

Liam Anthony ($422,700): After picking a soft target for my second avoid player, I thought I’d put my nuts back out there and make a harder call. Don’t get me wrong, Liam Anthony is a DT stud. He just knows where to run to get the ball and took like AFL like a duck to water last year. I don’t necessarily subscribe to the second year blues theory, per se, and Anthony seems like someone with a great work ethic who wouldn’t get complacent, but just consider that teams will put a lot more time and effort into stopping him this year. His 10 game career is too small a sample for me to justify spending over $400,000 on a player.

PRICE: $200,000-$400,000

Looking good:

Luke Ball ($366,500): I don’t know about you, but if I were Luke Ball I would be out to prove a point. Less than 50% TOG in the Grand Final?! I reckon he’ll make it abundantly obvious to Ross Lyon this year why he needed to be used more last year. Whatever the problems were at St.Kilda, he is flying in the pre-season at Collingwood. His scores were great in the NAB series and he’s looking super fit. Fantastic value after an eight point drop in his average last year.

Brad Ebert ($316,900): Which mid priced West Coast midfielder will go bang this year? Ebert is my pick of the bunch. He actually has a game suited to DT with pretty much a 1:1 kick:handball ratio, takes marks consistently enough and is a strong tackler. It’s his third year in the system and he’s ready to take a more prevalent role in West Coast’s midfield. I look at his Round 21 game vs. Adelaide last year as makings of a DT star – 11 kicks, 13 handballs, 10 marks and 5 tackles. Not that I preach for hanging your hat on one game, but Ebert is the type of player that can put numbers in a lot of different columns and I expect to see him do it a lot more this year.

Mark McVeigh ($268,400): McVeigh’s 2009 was ravaged by injury and suspension. After a massive step up in 2007 and 2008, he went way backwards in 2009 averaging a meagre 61 after 80 and 89 in the two years prior. His pre-season has been great and there’s every indication that he can get back to his best, which potentially makes him a keeper in the midfield at only a fraction of the price. Think Nick Stevens in 2008. Bear in mind he is suspended for the first week of this season, but with the glut of midfield talent in the rookies this year I’m sure you could get someone to cover for him for a game.

Avoid:

Travis Johnstone ($328,000): I find Johnstone’s role and stats in the pre-season to be a little misleading. He’s been playing loose behind the ball and has been the designated kicker. It looks like a lucrative DT role and given that he is such a good user of the ball it’s a role that makes sense for him. Just consider that Josh Drummond is the go to man for Brisbane and only played one pre-season game. Also Johnstone is one of the biggest DT teases in history and has had a career plagued by extreme inconsistency.

Brock McLean ($367,900): A lot were excited by the prospects of McLean moving to a team with a gun midfield. Even if Carlton won’t be up there this year, their midfield will be one of the highest scoring in DT. There should be a lot of points flying around, but they’ll be all Murphy, Gibbs, Judd and Simpson bound. Brock is very inside and isn’t elite enough to dominate DT from that role as other inside mids like Cross, J.Selwood and Bartel.

Overrated:

Chris Masten ($293,900): He’s getting a lot of love lately, but nothing screams DT about Chris Masten to me. He doesn’t mark the ball and he doesn’t tackle. If you choose Masten expect a lot of 20 touch games for an annoyingly low 60 points. In fact, heaps of people were raving about his pre-season game against Port where he got 28 touches…he only scored 74 points. Good player and will get the ball a bit, but does nothing in those other columns to get those scores. Other games from last year include 38 touches for 101 points (his only ton ever), 25 touches for 76 points, 27 touches for 77 and 84 points. If he needs almost 40 touches to crack a ton, good luck to those who pick him!

PRICE: $77,000-$200,000

First up, I’ve written about Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Lewis Jetta and Michael Barlow in my draftee articles, so check them out for more detailed views on those guys. For this article I’ll focus on other players…

Looking good:

Tom Scully ($157,500): At that price point people are looking at Trengove and Martin a lot closer. Scully isn’t really getting that much attention, but he’s going to get a fair bit of quality midfield minutes for Melbourne this year. He’s probably not your typical DT’er, but he’s got a lot of class for such a young player. At the end of the day he’s only priced at about 36, so he presents significant value and showed great scoring potential with a 95 in one NAB Challenge game.

Ryan Bastinac ($89,500): DEAN LAIDLEY IS GONE!!! It’s OK, ladies and gentlemen, North Melbourne kids might actually get a chance this year. Bastinac has had a cracking pre-season and could be a valuable bench selection. Once again, he’s a fairly inside sort of player and I think the Kangaroos are a team that suits him pretty well. He showed scoring improvement in each of his NAB series games, scoring 55, 66 and 72. It sounds like he’s a big chance for Round 1, so if named look closely because I reckon he could get a few games early on.

Brodie Moles ($83,800): Moles has already been elevated from the rookie list and at 24 years of age and yet to debut, he’s DT gold. We love our mature aged players. Moles has impressed in the NAB Cup, keeping his spot for all four weeks and impressing each game with his raking right foot kick and cleanness below his knees. The Bulldogs have great success with rookie upgrades (Boyd, Harbrow, Morris, Picken) and I can see Moles keeping his spot and scoring well. Just be aware that Christian Howard isn’t that far from coming off the long term injured list, so Moles might have to go back for a few weeks until anyone can be elevated after Round 11.

Avoid:

Ben Howlett ($77,800): Tough call this one, but my gut says he’ll have a tough time keeping his spot after early games just because. This may sound a little hypocritical after talking Moles up who I expect to crack into a much tougher midfield, but the Bombers will start the season without McVeigh, Lovett-Murray and Hurley. It’ll be tough to keep his spot. From all reports he’s been super impressive, but three people will have to make way early on for those three.

Anthony Morabito ($145,500): More than anything it’s his price tag. Morabito is every chance to get a lot of games for Freo this year, but I just rate the similarly priced Scully, Trengove and Martin as better scorers than him. I feel your money would be better directed to those three. Morabito is more of a run and carry player who will impact the game more than he’ll score well.

Overrated:

Daniel Connors ($156,000): Fourth year in the system and all of a sudden now he’s a big deal? I just can’t trust someone playing loose behind the ball who has poor kicking skills, not after I took Shane Edwards last year… Connors has had a good pre-season, but why now? He’s constantly been a tease and I feel this year rather than just teasing he’ll burn people because now people will pick him.

RUCK

Price: $350,000+

Looking good:

Aaron Sandilands ($419,800): 211 was just preparing himself for the real deal. Had a couple of decent hitouts to blow the cobwebs out. With 211 you at least know you’ll get like 40 points from hitouts per game. 40 points before he’s even touched the ball. Sounds good to me because he’s not exactly useless around the ground.

Avoid:

Dean Cox ($471,500): I shudder at the thought, to be honest. But he’s fully priced and there’s nothing to suggest his body is 100%. I’m also really curious to see what the effect of Nic Naitanui will do to him. Possibly nothing, but it’s an interesting situation. He’s priced at 107 and even though he’s very consistent it doesn’t take too much for him to drop a fair bit. Rather than an avoid I’m treating him as a wait and see prospect this year.

Overrated:

Darren Jolly ($381,500): To be honest, a case can be made for all $350,000+ ruckmen this year, but I’ve singled Jolly out because of his move. We all know about Sydney’s much famed anti-DT style of past years (note: past years, looks to be changing). Their high pressure, stoppage filled games ensured Jolly was contesting more hitouts than any other ruck in the competition. He’s a safe, consistent scorer, so if that’s your go, then have a dip, but I like a bit more upside than what Jolly can offer, which at best is to maintain his 87 average from last year.

Price: $200,000-$350,000

Looking good:

David Hille ($237,300): This guy ruined my year last year. It wasn’t so much that he did his knee, it was that he did precisely NOTHING in the first three rounds before doing his knee, so he bled cash like a teenage girl at DFO. However, I am cautiously going back there again. Without a viable full forward option in the absence of Lloyd and Lucas this year, Hille will get a lot of time in the goal square. He looks big and mean this pre-season, so he’ll be a tough match-up. He’ll still get plenty of ruck time, even though I think Ryder is their man. Either way, I’m very cautiously backing him in to score well enough either forward or ruck – a rise in $100K isn’t too lofty in my view and that brings a trade for Cox into the game.

Avoid:

Matthew Kreuzer ($330,500): I’m just worried about his role. I think he will end up being a star of the competition and I’m a huge fan of his, but I worry about the way Ratten plays him up forward. They sit him deep and his overhead marking isn’t a strength. His strength is his amazing endurance for a big, so get him moving Ratts! It sounds like he’ll end up in the ruck after Hampson and Warnock didn’t really impress, but I wish we got to see him more as a full time ruck in the pre-season. Can’t be confident he’ll add the 10-15 points per game he’d need at that price with the #1 mantle – he could, but we have nothing solid to base that on.

Overrated:

Nic Naitanui ($232,400): I fully recognise that this one could bite me big time BUT just consider that with the highs you will definitely get with Naitanui you’re likely to receive equally extreme lows. I still think he is a player that could quite literally end up with less than three kicks in a game. He’ll get hitouts and tackles, but I still don’t think he has the consistency in his game to be reliable enough. High risk, high reward and purely as a cash cow option he could be lucrative because of his potential for a couple of 100+ games, but there is a high chance of 30′s getting mixed in there still.

Price: $77,000-$200,000

Looking good:

Robert Warnock ($101,800): I actually think McEvoy could be a solid DT scorer, but too expensive for a bench option and too risky to be your second ruck. McEvoy is in no man’s land for DT unfortunately. As for Warnock, he’s a live body, simple as that. Even if not named Round 1 (I think he will get named anyway) he’s the only bench option that is remotely viable. I can’t see how you can avoid him.

Avoid:

No one: Seriously, anyone who is any remote chance of getting a game is worth a shot as your fourth ruck. Fourth ruck is in ridiculous tatters this year.

Overrated:

Matthew Lobbe ($94,500): He was seriously hyped before a ball was bounced, but I think everyone (including Choco) has gone a bit cold on him. With that said, he’s actually one of the most viable fourth ruck options (even if not named) because Brogan will need help at some stage and I don’t think Westhoff is the man to do it.