Price: $350,000 +

Looking good:

Brendon Goddard ($455,700): Goddard is clearly the number one defender in 2010 and I’d be very surprised if he is not in well over 100,000 teams by Round 1. Goddard averaged 104 points per game in 2009 and he also averaged 85 points per game over three pre season matches. He is simply a must have for your DT in 2010, much like Dean Cox in previous seasons.

Hawthorn Hawks Training Session


Luke Hodge ($366,800): The 2008 Norm Smith Medalist struggled with injury throughout the 2009 pre season and regular season. Hodge is a genuine superstar of our great game and I rate him in the top five players in the AFL when fully fit, but injuries can stop a train. After averaging only 83 points per game in 2009, I fully expect Hodge to average 100 points per game in 2010. Hodge is now fully fit, as shown by the fact he played all four pre season matches with a very solid average of 84 points per game (please note NAB cup / NAB challenge scores are usually lower than home and away matches due to more players on the interchange bench reducing the time on ground for all players).

Avoid:

Lindsay Gilbee ($360,900): I’ve watched Gilbee play a lot of footy over his career, but the Lindsay Gilbee of 2009 / 2010 is nothing like the player I remember from his All Australian year of 2006. In 2005 and 2006, Gilbee was one of the first players chosen in my DT. The man from Coldstream was not only a vital member of my DT; he was a player I loved to watch with his precise kicking and ability to kick goals on the run from outside 50 metres. Watching Gilbee during this year’s NAB cup, he looked either injured (if so, why was he playing), or horribly out of touch. An average of just 69 points per game over four NAB cup matches wouldn’t fill many coaches with too much confidence either. At his best, Gilbee is one of the Bulldogs most important players, but I haven’t seen his best on a consistent basis in any of the last three seasons.

Overrated:

Jed Adcock ($371,400): The appeal with Adcock is that you can pick up a player who spends plenty of time in the midfield, as a defender. The downside is, at this price you are looking at your 3rd defender to average 90 – 95 points per game, and I see many better options than Adcock at this price point. Adcock is what I would call a “good ordinary player”. Sure he’s serviceable and will provide good run off half back or through the midfield, but don’t expect 25 possessions, 8 marks and 4 tackles per game on a regular basis (which is what I want from my 3rd defender).

Price: $220,000-$350,000

Looking good:

Heath Grundy ($287,400): After choosing the two most obvious players in Goddard and Hodge as my premium backs, I’ve decided to choose someone more unique at this price point. Grundy had his best season in 2009 and finished the season 9th in the Swans best and fairest. With a modest average of 65 points per game in 2009, Grundy has stepped up a notch over the pre season and boosted his average to 70 points per game (as mentioned, pre season scores are usually lower). I’ve chosen Grundy here for two reasons: 1 – He’s unique; 2 – I rate him as a quality AFL player. Grundy has now played 46 AFL games; he’s 192cms, 99kgs and 23 years of age. I’m backing Grundy to improve on his impressive season last year and average 80 points per game in 2010.

Avoid:

Adam McPhee ($340,800): I know Toby told us to avoid McPhee on Monday, but given the fact he can be selected as a forward or defender, I would be derelict in my duties if I didn’t tell you to avoid him like the plague. If I was an Essendon supporter, I would be seething with the way McPhee walked out on the club last year. After seven years at Essendon, of which six were very ordinary, the 27 year old McPhee demands a three year deal. In today’s cut throat world of AFL footy, three year deals are reserved for quality players 24 years of age or under, or genuine superstars of the game such as Nick Riewoldt and Jonathon Brown. I’m not sure which category McPhee thought he belonged to, but the value of his 2004 All Australian jumper had been diluted greatly by the five ordinary seasons that followed. Andrew Welsh took his medicine, did the right thing by the club and signed a two year deal. McPhee walked out (after the trade period leaving Essendon with no compensation), signed a three year deal with Fremantle and looks like he’ll be spending the majority of those three years playing in the WAFL after a horrible pre season series.

Overrated:

Lachie Hansen ($265,600): Given that Hansen was selected at pick three in the 2006 National Draft, I’ve watched him closely over the last three seasons. While I believe Hansen will end up being a solid ten year player at North Melbourne, I don’t think he’ll ever come into DT calculations. The boy from Nar Nar Goon just doesn’t get his hands on the footy enough to score you those valuable points. With an average of just 44 points per game over four pre season games, I’d steer clear of Hansen.

Price: $77,000-$220,000

Looking good:

Beau Waters ($152,800): It’s hard to ignore such a quality player in Waters at this price, particularly after three pre season games with an impressive average of 69 points per game. At this price point, the main concern with players is job security. This is not a factor with Waters because at his best, he is easily in the top 10 players at West Coast. The concern with Waters is the horrific elbow injury which sidelined him for the entire 2009 season. I wish Beau all the best in his return to AFL football in 2010.

Avoid:

Graham Polak ($149,400): I wish Polak all the best in his courageous return to AFL football, but don’t believe the hype that was coming from Richmond back in February. While I’m rapt that he is now taking strong overhead marks again (at training), please don’t think that he is a viable option for your backline in 2010. The Polak comeback has been nothing short of inspirational, but after averaging 22 points per game over three pre season games, avoid selecting Polak in your DT.

Overrated:

Andrew Raines ($218,200): It seemed I was the only DT without Raines prior to Round 1 last year. The non selection of Raines turned out to be my best decision in 2009. If you were one of the many coaches who fell for this trap last year, please don’t let it happen again. We all make mistakes, but only fool’s make the same ones twice!