Footy Tragic
Matthew Pavlich
OK, it’s getting tough going late in the season, but those of you who have structured their team specifically to go for a league win should still have a few trades left. There’s also a decent chance you’ve been struck down like the Bulldogs forward line. Shaun Higgins is out for a few weeks, so it’s a tough call to make. Bob Murphy isn’t too common, but given that we were singing his praises on here a couple of weeks ago he might be a little more common for Footy Tragics.
This is the last week of the DT H&A season, so you already know that you’ll be without Higgins for the first week of finals given that he has a 2-3 week diagnosis. If he only misses two games then you’ll have him back for the second week of finals, but will that be too late? If you need the points for to secure a finals spot this week, or even an all important Top 4 berth then it wouldn’t be unwise to make the move on him.
Matthew Pavlich is a pretty common player, but so is everyone else that’s any good around Higgo’s price range. Hopefully this will be relevant to some of you, rather than excitedly clicking on this morning’s article and being disappointed because Pav is already in your team!
First of all, last week was his return from injury and significantly that injury occurred against Collingwood when he was only on 16 points, so it has driven his price right down. He’s dropped almost $30K in his last couple of games as a result. Once again, he’s got a fairly high break even. Not unachievable, but I’d be surprised if he reached the 133 he requires to go up in price this week. With that said, you can usually expect Pav to be in the ball park of that figure.
He’s got a lovely run home from a DT perspective. This week will be pretty tough against the Bulldogs, especially if Brian Lake goes to him. The beauty with Pav though is that he can use his amazing endurance to move up the ground and take marks around the wing. I don’t reckon the Bulldogs defenders will mind too much if Freo’s only decent inside 50 target is taking marks up the ground, because there’ll be no one for him to deliver to with confidence. Still…should be good for his DT points even if it removes all of Freo’s attack from their forward 50.
After this week though he plays Port, Melbourne and Essendon. The way those first two teams are going you might as well remove the comma between the two teams and line him up against Port Melbourne of the VFL. Those two games should be an orgy of points for a gun like Pav. As for Essendon, they’re Pav’s favourite team to play against. His highest average against any one particular team is against Essendon.
The one downer in his draw is that all important Grand Final week for DT sees him up against Geelong down at the Cattery. It’s not all doom and gloom though. His last five games against Geelong have seen him average 105.6. I won’t stuff you around and post only numbers skewed in his favour though…be warned, he’s never scored a ton at Skilled Stadium.
Just a few quick names around his price, just in case you already have Pav but desperately need to trade out Higgo/Murphy I also considered writing about:
Leon Davis – form has been much better since Didak has been getting more attention.
Brett Deledio – disappointing this year, but at the end of the day averaging 90.
Aaron Davey – I’ve got him, has been frustrating, but can pull off big scores
Buddyyyyyy – the swagger is back (I’ve already written about him, so I can’t feature him again)
Travis Cloke – smokey, has scored three convincing tons in his last five games.
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