Footy Tragic
Marc Murphy
If you’ve been saving up trades for the Preliminary Finals you’ve done well to get this far with them in tact, especially after the debacle of Round 19 (and let’s never speak of that round again). By this stage you have to look really closely at the run home your trade in target has. This combined with current form is the key to finding the right trade in target.
I’m not gonna lie, I ran out of trades many weeks ago, so my crude attempt to find you a super sweet bargain is a bit half arsed. Not to worry, I looked through about 10-15 unique-ish midfielders around the $375K-$425K mark and picked what I reckon looks to be the best of the lot.
Marc Murphy is part of Carlton’s Fab 4 (that consists of three people) and the good news for guys that aren’t Chris Judd is that they’re not likely to get the #1 tagger. Murphy is a beautiful accumulator of the ball and he uses it well, to boot. Not that it matters how well he uses it, but hey, if you’re Bryce Gibbs and you’ve got Andrew Carrazzo and Murph free, who are you gonna pass the ball too? Every little bit helps.
He’s got an average of 109.2 over the last five weeks, so he ticks the box for current form. A few of those have been tough games as well. Even though Sydney aren’t the DT killers they once were, they’ve still claimed a few scalps this season. Collingwood and Geelong don’t concede too many points either and he posted 111 and 97 against them respectively.
As for his run home, well, the great news is that he plays Melbourne, who after winning on the weekend will not be taking any chances to lose their priority pick in the remaining two games. To make sure they don’t win as if they’re going to pay proper respect to their gun mids. They’ll probably stick Michael Newton on him or something. Anything less than 120 would be a disappointment, that’s how much I expect Murph to chop this weekend.
For the final game and the all important DT Grand Final week he’s up against Adelaide, his second best DT opponent in the league. He averages 95.8 against them across his career, so it’s a good match up. Shirley usually goes to Judd (and be wary Judd owners because Shirley generally does well on him and has never let him score a ton against the Crows, not even in his WC days) so you’re more likely going to see Murph going head to head with someone like Thompson or Edwards. Maybe Doughty will get a job on him, but whatever the Crows have tried in the past hasn’t really hampered his scoring against them.
His ripping form and solid run home makes it an ideal trade if you’re looking to bolster your mids for these all important last couple of weeks (I hope it’s the midfield you’re looking to trade into).
8 Comments on Marc Murphy
yeh marc is a gun. my boy. great DTer, attention goes to juddy and maybe gibbs.
Hey guys, a little off topic (sorry about that) but i was wondering if i could get your thoughts on why you think matty stokes as had such a large drop ins coring the past 7 weeks. Average of 56 from his last 7 compared to an average of 87 in his first 9 games.
Not a huge fan of Stokes’ second half to the season – i was actually pondering the same thing last night Chad…
My conclusion was two main reasons – firstly, with the amount of personnel out of the Geelong side in the last two months, Stokes has been forced to play as a permanent forward – his scoring last year (and the first half of this year) came from time in the midfield. Also, the progression of Shannon Byrnes in the second half of the year has probably meant he has taken Stokes’ role.
My second reasoning came down to the simple reason of form – he really irks the hard stuff, and doesnt like working too hard for the footy. This means two things – he wont see as much ball, and Bomber wont play him in high-possession areas such as the midfield because of this lack of work-rate… Footy has really passed by those forwards not willing to work for their possessions as “frontal pressure” has become in vogue…
It will be interesting to watch his pre-season, however. He has averaged very low this year due to this lack of form. Could be a cheap smokie next year with great upside if he is able to get back to the numbers expected of him!
Chad / Toby,
The problem with Matty Stokes is that he is a “downhill skier”. If anyone needs proof, I’ll send you a copy of last years Grand Final where Stokes was towelled up by Luke Hodge in front of over 100,000 people.
When Geelong are flying and beating teams by 8 – 10 goals every week, players like Stokes, Mooney, Varcoe, Rooke etc. join the party and get taken along for the ride.
It’s very easy to play well in a quality side, because your “A grade” team mates such as Bartel, Ablett, Corey, Selwood, Chapman, Stevie Johnson etc. carry you.
The problems start when opposition teams catch up to you, a few key players get injured and the lesser lights are expected to step up to the plate.
The problem is, these lesser lights such as Stokes, Varcoe etc. are just average players.
I’d love to see Aaron Davey, Colin Sylvia or Matty Bate running around for St. Kilda or Geelong for a few weeks. These 3 players are geniunely quality players in my book, but you never hear much about them because they all play for a basket case such as Melbourne. If they played for Geelong, the media would be raving about them and putting them up for All Australian selection.
On the other hand, throw Joel Selwood into the Melbourne team and see how he goes. I really rate Joel Selwood as an AFL player, but would he be widely regarded as a top 10 player in the league if Melbourne drafted him rather than Geelong 3 years ago? Not a chance.
On the other hand, if Jack Grimes played for Geelong, the media would be all over him and hailing him as the next Andrew McLeod.
The key is to make this work to your favour, by digging a little deeper when choosing your dreamteam for 2010.
There are plenty of quality young players for Melbourne, Fremantle, West Coast etc. who are ready to step up in 2010.
The media won’t talk about them, but that’s fine because that means that you may be able to uncover a hidden gem of your own.
Wow, seems all I’m doing this week is completely disagreeing with you Tuney. First of all, and this is just a minor point, I don’t agree that Rooke and to a lesser extent Varcoe are in that group of players that get taken along for the ride. Rooke is one of the hardest workers at Geelong. Remember when they dropped him against Collingwood last year? It was their only loss apart from the Grand Final and they were absolutely embarrassed. The leadership group apparently approached match committee and said never drop Rooke again. OK, so they did drop him this season, but I think that game illustrates how important Rooke can be to them (especially since they were smashed with hardness that night). I rate Varcoe very highly, but that’s just my opinion.
I certainly agree with your points about gun players in dud teams getting under appreciated and vice versa, but I’ll be picking my team next year highly geared towards how I think the ladder will pan out. There’s a not too coincidental correlation between teams that win games and teams that score big DT points. There are obvious individual exceptions (Cox, Sylvia, Grimes, Freo’s only four good players) but my team will be more biased towards 15+ wins.
I have never, ever heard anyone describe Prawn Bate as a potential All Australian. Having said that he’s been our best ‘pure’ forward this year and done pretty well considering he’s on the receiving end of some of the worst inside 50 delivery I’ve ever seen.
Book him in for a break out year next year once the demons clear out the Robbo/Miller/Juice Newton chaff that’s getting in his way.
I think Bate will be one of the best DT’ers once Melbourne’s exciting young list develops. Probably need to wait for them to improve a bit more though. Half forward on a low placed side is a DT dead zone. He’s doing remarkably well to score as he has been!
I’ve always liked the way Matty Bate goes about his footy.
He is a fantastic size at 192cm,90kgs, has great hands, nice kick, can find space and he covers the ground very nicely.
Let’s not forget that he finished 3rd in Melbourne’s best and fairest in 2007, in only his 3rd season of AFL footy.
Bate will start the 2010 season as a 22 year old with around 70 AFL games under his belt.
As long as he gets another big pre season under his belt, I’m expecting him to have a big year.
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