With the Bombers in a short form slump but a slump nonetheless and the Tigers knocking on the door for September it will serve as a crucial match for both teams. There’s plenty of off field side stories to add to the drama, Trent Cotchin’s recent article with Emma Quayle has caused quite a stir after the Richmond skipper voiced that he’d consider retirement if the Tigers won a flag, meanwhile Essendon appears to be feeling the heat from the ASADA investigation with their on-field focus appearing to be elsewhere and their CEO handing in his resignation.

It’s a flip the coin contest with both teams playing anything but convincing football and this has led us to take a bit of a different approach to this weeks preview as we attempt to take a closer look and diagnose just what’s gone right and wrong for both sides this season.

Essendon Key Indicators

We covered a lot of how Essendon operate in the preview against Geelong which can be found here. To briefly summarise the Bombers have a large dependency on foot skills, they love to move the ball via short kicks and as quickly as possible. The game style isn’t a concern as we know it can be successful, the problem for Essendon is the drop off in work rate in the last three weeks. Essendon’s complacency first reared its ugly head in the game against the Giants and you need to look no further than the half time scoreboard as evidence.

Against Geelong the Bombers were competitive in the first half but lacked the resolve and touch of class required to hang with the Cats.

Last week against Brisbane saw the red sash slip to a low point for the season in a loss to Brisbane. It wasn’t the loss itself which was the issue but how it came about with the Bombers appearing to take the Lions lightly. Essendon’s intent was clear as day from the get go with Ben Howlett named as sub and things didn’t get any better with Essendon allowing Brisbane to score from fifteen of sixteen inside fifties in the second half. The performance had all the making of an unaccountable side absent concentration, and one which looked completely different to the team who took on and defeated all comers in the opening five weeks.

The questions now are just how far have the Bombers fallen, if at all, are they taking a similar path to the great collapse from only a season ago, and can they right the ship? To get the best idea of exactly what the hell has happened to Essendon we’ve broken down both Essendon and their opponents output from rounds 1-5 and compared it to the output in rounds 6-8. The categories impacted the most are displayed and any that are missing have maintained an almost identical output throughout both periods.

Looking at Essendon themselves, what stands out most is the Bombers switch from winning a heavy amount of contested ball to playing a predominantly uncontested brand. For a team who had so much success via foot the drop in usage and increase in handballs is alarming. Further to this the dominant ruck advantage has left the building, tackling pressure is down and with it went scoring punch.

Essendon Rounds 1-5 v Rounds 6-8

The alarms sound loudest when looking at what Essendon’s opponents are doing as the majority of indicators point to a Bombers midfield that isn’t working hard enough, and one whose output mirrors that of the side who lost their will and with it seven straight games to close the 2012 season. Normally this wouldn’t raise huge concern (it’s three games) but given two of the three games in this sample size came against GWS and Brisbane at home the worry is warranted.

Opposition teams are finding plenty of space with little resistance and as a result are locating targets up forward despite experiencing fewer inside fifties than opponents who faced the Bombers from rounds 1-5. The brick wall defence that destroyed the Magpies on Anzac Day is now wafer thin and it’s largely due to the one way work rate of Essendon’s midfield.

In just three rounds of footy the Bombers have dropped from league leaders to sixth in goals registered from time in forward half percentage differential. The Essendon forward line isn’t anywhere near as effective and to magnify the problem opponents are scoring with ease.

Essendon Opponents Rounds 1-5 v Rounds 6-8

*Each value represents an increase unless otherwise noted

To make things extra creepy, here’s the change in output from Essendon’s opponents during the Bombers seven loss form slump to end season 2012. Outside of tackles, inside fifties and marks inside fifty, it’s practically identical. Is it another case of history repeating, or can Essendon regain their mojo? How Essendon respond should be the only question regarding the Bombers this week.

Essendon Opponent Differentials: Rounds 1-14 v Rounds 15-23, 2012

Richmond Key Indicators

Like Essendon, Richmond played a lacklustre brand of footy last week with the only difference being they actually won. With victories over Carlton, St. Kilda, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne wedged between losses against Collingwood, Fremantle and Geelong it’s a Tiger side that has yet to prove they’re capable of September action.

The good news for Richmond is that the past two weeks have allowed them to fine tune how they operate and acquire some confidence by practically wiping the opposition off the floor based on sheer weight of disposal numbers alone.

Like Hawthorn, the Tigers love to spread and do so via supreme foot skills and in recent weeks they’ve experienced an explosion in output to the tune of 154 more effective kicks and 119 more uncontested marks than their opponents at a kicking efficiency differential of +9.3%. Whether or not their style can hold up against the best of the best remains a mystery but with their results to date you’d assume it’s unlikely unless a burst of improvement comes to fruition.

With the likes of Brandon Ellis and Nick Vlastuin coming into their own and tracking faster than expected it would be foolish to write the Tigers off completely but for realities sake here is the Tigers splits this year in losses (Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong) and wins (Carlton, St. Kilda, Bulldogs, Port, Melbourne) in the three areas which are so prevalent in dictating the success of their game style.

It’s no secret as to why Richmond lost these particular games and if Essendon can find a heartbeat and actually break a sweat they may just disrupt the Tigers enough to get a win. That’s a big if though given the way the Bombers have played of late.

It look pretty simple at face value, keep the ball out of Richmond’s hands and take away their foot skills, you win. If only it were that easy.

The other major concern for the Tigers is their defensive work which is allowing opponents 14.7 marks inside fifty per game in losses and 13.2 per game overall. The back six aren’t solely at fault though; in losses Richmond has turned the ball over 11.7 times more than their opponents which will leave any defence exposed. We’ll take a deeper look at why this has been so damaging in the next section.

Scoring Sources

Richmond source more points from stoppages than any other team in the AFL whilst also restricting opponents to the fewest points from stoppages in the competition. The Tigers points from stoppages differential of +159 is forty-nine points greater than the second ranked side Hawthorn who register a differential of +113.

What’s remarkable about this stat is that last season the complete opposite was occurring with Richmond sourcing just 33% of points from stoppages compared to 45% this season. In fact, the Tigers are already halfway towards matching their season 2012 total of 733 points from stoppages. It also explains why Richmond currently lead the league in goals from marks but sit fifteenth ahead of only the Bulldogs, St. Kilda and Melbourne for goals from general play, they’re very methodical in their approach going forward with little scoring opportunities being sourced on the rebound.

It’s a clear change in strategy from coach Damian Hardwick with Richmond’s points from turnovers this season sitting at 49.37 points per game compared to 61.59 a year ago. Given the majority of quality sides are now focused on playing slingshot footy and forcing turnovers is this change actually a step in the right direction?

It’s too early to tell although you’d like to see more of a balance, but I’ll let you be the judge. Here is the top five and bottom five sides for points from turnover differential this season. It also explains exactly how Essendon operate and obtain their scores, and highlights that if the Bombers aren’t applying pressure their scoring dries up;

Last Time They Met

Last time the two teams met Richmond defeated the Bombers by 45 points although it should have been 145 points if not for wayward kicking. It would be Essendon’s sixth straight loss but it could have been so much worse with the Tigers registering just 13 goals from 37 scoring shots. To illustrate how bad Essendon were during this period of the season 90 of the Tigers 102 points on the night came via Bomber turnovers.

Richmond would accumulate ninety more uncontested possessions, double the Bombers marking tally 61-122, experience seventy more effective kicks at a kicking efficiency differential of +18.8%, amass 31 more inside fifties, 12 fewer turnovers and yet still lost the clearance count 28-26.

Shane Tuck led the way for Richmond with 33 disposals (27 effective) and 12 inside fifties whilst nobody did anything of note for Essendon, at all. The contest may have taken place at the basket case end of the season for the Bombers, but after three straight weeks of lacklustre effort a similar fall from grace could be repeating itself again.

Who Will Win and Why?

This comes down to how much you trust Essendon to be motivated. You’d imagine all the negative attention about their effort last week would be enough to kick them into gear but a side with the Bombers ambitions shouldn’t require an extra rocket up the ‘you know where’.

We could talk about matchups and who is doing what but the result of this battle will be completely dependent upon which Essendon side shows up. If they’re motivated and willing to work and match the determination they brought to the table in the opening five rounds you’d imagine they’ll defeat the Tigers. If not, Richmond will happily blow them off the map.

Of course, there’s every chance both teams are at their best and we get another ripping down to the wire dog fight. It doesn’t matter which way you cut it we’re in for an incredibly telling game of football which will unearth the underbelly of both sides.

Teams who have had success against the Tigers this year have proven that immense pressure is a necessity and I think Richmond’s vulnerability when it comes to turnovers will prove to be the difference. The Tigers have seven players inside the top 60 for turnovers per game, whilst the Bombers have just one player inside the top sixty in Elliott Kavanagh who likely won’t feature at all.

Trusting Essendon to turn up given form and current circumstance is playing with fire but if you need extra motivation beyond the Saturday night at the ‘G facing an historic rival platform, you have terminal issues.

The Bombers have proven this season that they’re capable of playing the exact style of football that can trouble Richmond.

It’s time to prove it all over again.

Tip: Essendon by 15 points.

You can Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

While ostensibly a player welfare policy, an element of its formulation must’ve been based on the AFL’s core value: brand protection. Yet the Ben Cousins fiasco circa 2007 (for the record he never tested positive), rumours of a certain player allegedly flatlining in Vegas whilst his teammates were allegedly doing their best Tony Montana impersonations from the final scenes of Scarface (sans the gunfight) all occurred under the current policy. Even if cover ups are occurring to a degree is it any less embarrassing or damaging to the brand than having the press gang ritually lampooning the ‘softness’ of the policy and the often wild speculation, rumour and innuendo surrounding unnamed Player X on Strike 2?

By all means keep counselling programs available to those who wish to seek professional help for their vices. But there is no point in the AFL trying to protect and help those who may not need or want it. It is an individual’s responsibility to manage their own behaviour. In his autobiography All Bets Are Off David Schwarz’s gambling was a documented problem before he entered the AFL system. While the large income he was receiving as an AFL player allowed him to effectively flush hundreds of thousands of dollars down the toilet at a time – his addiction was his problem, not his profession. Schwarz has openly stated that if it weren’t for football he’d probably be in jail or dead.
I’d wager that the drug use that occurs in AFL circles more or less reflects the use of illicit drugs in the mainstream population. The amount of people who haven’t tried drugs at some stage would be close to zero, it’s a minority of people who regularly use and those that do are probably better off having counselling or rehabilitation than being outcast as witches.

If some players wish to potentially jeopardize their health and career by overindulging that is ultimately their choice. At least they’d have the financial resources and support networks to seek the highest level of professional help – something that your average Harry Goldfarb doesn’t have going for him.

Yes, illicit drug use is illegal (whether it should be or not is a different debate) but so is tax evasion. Therefore should the AFL start paying for ATO agents to randomly audit its players just in case they’ve been taking financial advice from Wesley Snipes?

There is apparently the danger of criminals using their influence as drug providers to associate, infiltrate and manipulate player ranks leading down the slippery slope to match/spot fixing. The truth is criminals have sought out athletes and celebrities for time immemorial and there has been no evidence come to light of some kind of hybrid Hansie Cobain emerge in world sport. Anyway, isn’t gambling the real issue here? The AFL and almost every other sport under the sun seem content to whore themselves out to betting agencies, allowing exotic bet types to occur because of lucrative sponsorship deals and allow gambling advertising in coverage of games when minors may be watching. This is arguably a far more serious problem that the AFL could regulate far more effectively than illicit drug use.

WADA are an inherently stupid organisation founded by zealots. Who are they accountable to? Even if they fail to catch drug cheats all they do is cluck their tongues and put their hands out for squillions more of taxpayer money to fund their incompetence. They are also on the same moral crusade of ‘zero tolerance’ for illicit drugs which has only served to line the pockets of and amuse drug cartels. If government agencies have struggled to stop the spread of illicit drugs in mainstream society over the best part of half a century – what chance does some made up pissant anti drug sports authority have of stopping athletes getting hold of some gear?

Any sport that wants to be perceived as cleaner than bikie gang run power-lifting league should sign up to a world recognised anti-doping system to discourage use of performance enhancing drugs. But having the odd drag on a spliff is not the same as juicing. Should players really be banned for up to 2 years because they may have passively inhaled some Mary Jane smoke at a concert? According to WADA and the Patrick Smith gang they should be.

One of the keys to life is trying to control the controllable. How about:

• Journalists write about sport instead of speculating about athlete’s personal lives;
• The AFL runs focuses on running its competition;
• WADA continues to be unaccountable, not catch PED cheats and leech off international governments ;
• AFL players take responsibility for their own (inter)actions, health and welfare;
• The police deal with AFL players transgressing the law;
• We all say no to the AFL’s illicit drug policy

Just when you think you begin to get a handle on this game, she turns around and humbles you. With some surprise results, some outstanding performances and emotional finishes, Round 8 was certainly a reminder of why we love the game.

Here is what happened at your club over the weekend:

Adelaide (defeated St Kilda) 

The Buzz

Richard Douglas – The former Best and Fairest winner has gone largely unnoticed alongside the likes of Sloane and Dangerfield, but I think he’s been one of the Crows’ best in the first 8 rounds of this year. I think it’s because he’s not the sort of player that grabs a game by the throat and turns it around, but what he does is accumulates, and wins his position more weeks than he loses. HE would have been the perfect mid-priced midfield punt this year (rather than the dross I seemed to select).

Josh Jenkins – There are some weeks I watch this kid, and think he could be anything. He’s moving to the right spots, both when he leads to the ball and when he falls back, can take a contested mark and has a long kick.  He managed 2.4 on a young buck in Rhys Stanley after the ground had gasped in the first quarter when he appeared to hyperextend his knee.  

Buzzkill

Matthew Wright -  One of a raft of current mid-tier Crows who I’m sure the Coach is demanding more from (you can include the likes of Porplyzia, Jaensch and Henderson in this list). Largely impotent, he was subbed at 3 quarter time, and if you were silly enough to take a punt on him, perhaps it’s time to think about cutting your losses.

 Brisbane (defeated Essendon)

The Buzz

Dayne Zorko – Showed some of the form we know he possesses, but which had been somewhat repressed in 2013. Zorko provided some sparkle and class up forward, kicking 3 goals straight as well as providing significant pressure on the defensive side also. With a DT breakeven of 76, now might be the right time to jump on for the ride.

Jack Redden – Leadership is all about the intangibles, so says some crappy self-leadership book I read once. Well, Redden oozes both leadership and class, and whilst that sounds subjective (and messy), it’s also measurable. 12 tackles, 14 contested possessions and 4 clearances meant that Redden monstered the likes of Essendon’s much vaunted contested ball unit (Watson and Watson). Buy with confidence.

Buzzkill

Sam Mayes – It’s not the kid’s fault, but he was named as the substitute, and came on for Simon Black in the third quarter. As he did such a reasonable job, this would be a great disappointment to many (mainly me) who relied on him for a reasonable score. Related: If you’re relying on the likes of Mayes for a reasonable score, it’s probably time to give up your fantasy team’s hopes.

Carlton (defeated Port Adelaide)

The Buzz

Marc Murphy bounced back from his poor performance last week with a great game, playing predominantly in the forward line. He started up forward and it seemed to be a great move by Malthouse, freeing him of the tag whilst he was also able to impact the scoreboard with 3 goals from 24 disposals.

Mitch Robinson is working into some good form, playing through the midfield and half-forward line, winning 23 touches and booting 2.1. Many coaches offloaded him early in the year when he was concussed early in round one, however he is now showing the form that made so many of us start him. His price is pretty reasonable and you could do much worse up forward.

Buzzkill

Heath Scotland was particularly quiet for the Blues; whilst he still managed to pull together 20 touches, most of these were in the second half and didn’t have much contribution to the final result of the match. He’s yet to crack the DT ton this year, which has been pretty disappointing.

Collingwood (defeated Geelong)

The Buzz

 Harry O’Brien has been thriving in his move to the midfield this year and this game was his best to date, pulling in 31 touches and 9 marks in a highly influential game. With Maxwell back in the side, the Pies have no reason to move him back to defence, meaning that if you were to trade him in, you can rely on him keeping his place in the midfield rotations. He’s currently much more consistent than some other apparent ‘premium’ defence options.

Sam Dwyer was a huge reason behind the Pies’ upset win over Geelong with his last quarter dominance. He played across half-forward and provided a great link between the midfield and the goals, also proving to many DT and SC coaches that he had plenty of money left to make us (thanks Sam!). He finished with 27 disposals and three very important goals.

Buzzkill

Dane Swan had one of his quietest games in a while, finishing with only 29 disposals, yet failing to register much in the other stat columns – only 4 marks, 1 tackle and no goals. There’s nothing really wrong with him – he just didn’t get as involved as what we are used to seeing from him.

Essendon (defeated by Brisbane)

The Buzz

Jobe Watson – As if you needed any reminder, the Brownlow medallist is a classy player. He ran the Lions ragged with a study in efficient and contested possession. He has been a largely consistent accumulator, and as always is a safe bet for your chosen brand of fantasy.

Buzzkill

Michael Hurley  - I’m not sure how many games Hurley has missed through injury, but it feels like a lot. I know that won’t satisfy those of you who are numbers people, it must be disappointing for the Bombers and their fans. Hurley was subbed out of the match early with concussion, and will be monitored closely this week in the lead up to Dreamtime at the G.

Fremantle (drew with Sydney)

The Buzz

Zac Clarke came into the side for his first game for the year as Freo’s number one big man and he didn’t disappoint, winning 27 hitouts from 16 touches and 7 marks. His first quarter was particularly massive as he dominated all over the ground. The position is his for the year, and whilst he’s not dirt cheap, he could still prove undervalued considering what he could average.

Nat Fyfe returned from his suspension and picked up where he left off with 23 disposals, 5 marks and 6 tackles, as well as 2.2. He is a player capable of adapting to different roles and positions very quickly, meaning he is able to rack up the possessions, no matter where he is on the ground. Also, with Mundy in the team, and the fact Fyfe can sometimes be a bit wayward with his disposals, he doesn’t seem to be the first choice for taggers to go to – bonus!

Buzzkill

Michael Walters has been one of Freo’s best this year, however he hurt his ankle in a tackle late in the third term, which now looks like it will cause him to miss a week or two. He’s become one of Freo’s best players, so they really can’t afford to lose him for long.

Geelong (defeated by Collingwood)

The Buzz

Jimmy Bartel was both one of Geelong’s best and worst against the Pies; his first quarter was littered with uncharacteristic mistakes, such as handballing straight to the opposition in front of the goals, whilst also trying to kick the ball out of the air rather than take possession, only to miss the ball altogether and have it nearly bounce through for a goal. Fortunately, he put that quarter behind him and played the next three terms in the form we are used to seeing from him. He rotated between forward and defence, and ended up as one of the most influential Cats on the field.

Matthew Stokes continues to be one of the Cats’ best players this year, again rotating through the midfield and half-forward. He picked up 31 disposals and will again go up in price this week. For those who got him a few weeks ago, it seems he has become an absolute bargain. For those without him, he’s consistency suggests you should be considering him at his current price anyway.

Buzzkill

Joel Selwood was very well held by Brent Macaffer, managing just the 20 disposals – most of which came in the second half. He managed to get some influence on the contest late in the game as Geelong made their assault, but it wasn’t as much as what we have come to expect from the skipper.

Gold Coast (defeated Western Bulldogs)

The Buzz

Danny Stanley – O’Meara and Ablett were both predictably superb in this match, but for me it was actually Danny Stanley whose experience was the difference maker as he got heavily involved in the final quarter. He managed to finish with 20 touches, 10 marks and a goal.

Greg Broughton – You still wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole, but Broughton played possibly his best game in a Suns uniform, doing a (largely) nice job on Daniel Giansiracusa and collecting 20 touches, 5 of which were used to rebound from the defensive 50.

Buzzkill

Zac Smith – Had a scare with his knee in the first quarter, and whilst he came back on the field, was subbed out of the game before half time. I sincerely hope that whatever issue he had simply fades away with the week’s recovery. We’ve had quite enough knee injuries for one year, don’t you think?

Greater Western Sydney (defeated by Hawthorn)

The Buzz

Jeremy Cameron – Was again the bright spark of hope for both of the Giants fans looking for something to hang their hat on. He kicked 4 goals on an all Australian full back, and continues to be the sort of potential key forward you can build a franchise around.

Buzzkill

Lachie Whitfield  - Showed some signs of fatigue – and quite frankly, I don’t blame him.  He was subbed off in the third quarter for Dylan Shiel, who came on and had instant impact, albeit in a game where the sting had largely dissipated.

Hawthorn (defeated Great Western Sydney)

The Buzz

Sam Mitchell – When the game was up for grabs, Mitchell was there, leading from the front. He never fails to impress me. With 35 touches, GWS predictably did not really have an answer for Mitchell, although young Anthony Miles was given a lesson in how hard he needs to work to make it a high level.

Jarryd Roughead – Has made himself a factor in the Hawks squad this year with his versatility, but was afforded the luxury of spending most of his time up forward against an undersized Giants defence (let the irony of that sentence sink in for a second). Roughead was able to pick himself up a nice little 5 goal bag to go with his 22 touches and 118 DT points. You get the feeling the Hawks are going to enjoy the next month.

Buzzkill

Grant Birchall – Has to be tagged as the major disappointment of the day. I’m not sure if he’s carrying an injury, but this is the second straight match where he’s been below par and you’d expect better from him. Looked tired, and you would not be surprised if he had a match off, given his workload and Hawthorn’s next month.

Melbourne (defeated by Richmond)

The Buzz

Dean Terlich put in a heart-warming performance for all those Gibbs owners forced to play him on field this week. He was the Dees key rebounding option from defence, racking up 21 touches and 10 marks. He typically uses the ball pretty well and has no issues taking the game on (which doesn’t always end well though). Whilst he won’t dish out these kind of numbers every week, a 120 in his rolling average will help jack his price up nice and quick!

Aaron Davey played his best game in some time, back in his original small forwards role. He played quite well, bouncing up for 3.1 and largely used the ball well. He’s now dirt cheap in both comps thanks to continually being the sub. Personally I couldn’t go there, but he could prove a decent sideways trade from a rookie to make some quick cash.

Buzzkill

Jimmy Toumpas started slowly before having his ankle roll underneath him in a tackle in the 2^nd quarter. He was carried off in a lot of pain and regardless of the result, should be traded from your team. He doesn’t quite look ready for big-possession games just yet.

North Melbourne (defeated by West Coast)

The Buzz

Brent Harvey – Gee, the Roos must love having their leader back. Boomer picked up 24 touches and a couple of goals and showed his usual composure, efficiency and discipline. If you’re not scared off by his age, there are worse options to consider in your forward line.

Lachie Hansen  - Played the sort of breakthrough match that even generated the creation of a new stat. He looked to actually be a legitimate tall defender, taking a number of important marks (including 5 contested), and didn’t burn the ball when he got it. Did he have a nice match? Sure. Is he ever going to be consider a legitimate fantasy option? Doubtful.

Buzzkill

Lindsay Thomas  - Was destroyed by a combination of Darren Glass and his merry men, less than ideal supply from his engine room and a crippling lack of workrate to run himself out of the funk. It must have been upsetting for Roos’ fans who desperately would have liked a little but more pep up forward.

Port Adelaide (defeated by Carlton)

The Buzz

Kane Cornes was once again the standout performer for the Power, continuing his ultra-consistent season. He’s back playing the head-to-head tagging roles that allowed him to dominate the DT competition a few years ago – in this instance he went to Judd and worked off him very well. He’s the 2^nd highest ranked player in Dream team at the moment (behind only Ablett), so he should definitely be on everyone’s radar – especially considering he is still racking up the disposals even when Port are losing.

Robbie Gray continued his positive return from the knee injury which derailed his 2012 season, playing a split between the midfield and forward line. The injury certainly hasn’t stopped his attack on the football, still giving his all to every contest. He will only keep getting better, so has plenty of money still to make for his owners.

Buzzkill

Hamish Harlett gets the ‘buzzkill’ Guernsey again… Mate – pull your finger out! Ken Hinkley challenged him at half time to lift his intensity… So he punched Murphy and my find himself at the tribunal. This bloke is doing my head in!

Richmond (defeated Melbourne)

The Buzz

Brandon Ellis was easily the biggest buzz of the game, picking up 16 touches in the first quarter alone before going on with it to finish with a career-high 39 with 11 marks and 3 tackles. He played entirely midfield and used the ball fantastically, hence the Tiges continually worked it into his hands. Those who picked him up a few weeks ago will be feeling pretty good about life at the moment.

Nick Vlaustin was the other huge buzz for those who brought him in a fortnight ago. He is so polished through the midfield – he has no trouble finding the ball, but he also uses it beautifully! He’s in this team to stay and I daresay he will be sitting at over $400k in both comps in a matter of a fortnight!

Buzzkill

Jack Riewoldt owners would have been looking forward to his game against the lowly Demons, but unfortunately he was successfully curtailed by James Frawley, who actually has a very good record against Jumping Jack. He still booted 3.3 but it was from just the 12 disposals and with no tackles to boost his score.

St Kilda (defeated by Adelaide)

The Buzz

Jack Newnes – Newnes reads the ball and the play so well, and was one of a handful of Saints that fans could look at and be filled with hope. The more I see him play, the more I think he’s going to be less Goddard 2.0, and more Newnes mark 1. Would love to hear what Toby has to say about him.

Nick Riewoldt – I say this every time I see this guy play live I’m simply astounded. Astounded by his heart, astounded by his workrate, and astounded by how much hate he seems to attract from opposition fans. I thought Talia played a good game on him, but he still managed to have some impact on the game. His shoulders must hurt from carrying that forward line.

Buzzkill

Terry Milera – Judging by the response of Saints fan on social media, Milera is their new whipping boy. I personally did not think he was as bad as all that…but then again, I’m a Crows fan, so perhaps I was just enjoying it. Whilst I thought Beau Maister was also pretty ineffective in a forward line that just did not click, 4 Clangers and 36.4% disposal efficiency is never going to win you many friends, and so Milera kills our buzz this week.

Sydney (drew with Fremantle)

The Buzz

Daniel Hannebury had another awesome game through the midfield, really setting the Swans up for a win (before they coughed it up in the last 10mins). His midfield work was exceptional, as was his work forward of centre where he booted four goals. He’s become such a versatile player and can hurt the opposition from anywhere on the ground. Will only keep getting better.

Josh Kennedy played one of his better games for this year, winning 29 disposals and laying a whopping 11 tackles. With Freo’s midfield full of 190cm+ mids, it was important for Kennedy to have a big game and use his own big body against them. This was his best game of the year, so fingers are crossed the form can continue.

Buzzkill

Tommy Walsh played his first game of the year, and whilst improving ever so slightly on his last one-disposal performance, he looks to be only biding his time before Tippett is launched in round 13. He managed just 5 disposals and no scoreboard impact.

West Coast (defeated North Melbourne)

The Buzz

Darren Glass – Marshalled the troops in the West Coast backline and orchestrated a couple of fine attacks from the defensive 50. He played loosely on Lindsay Thomas, who failed to have any impact on the game, but Glass continued to do the hard things that have made him one of the most feared full backs in the comp.

Shannon Hurn – Did you know that the AFL Player Rating system (talked up exclusively by the AFL website and comprehensively ignored by the rest of the AFL universe) ranks Shannon Hurn as the competitions number 1 defender? Neither did I, but I’m assuming it has something to do with the contested marks he always seem to take in the defensive half, and the way he uses his exceptional leg to set up the play…

Nic Naitanui – Can’t let a recap of this team go without a mention of the return of NicNat. One has to remember that sometimes, in this age of hyperbole and hysteria, hype is justified. Naitanui did not play the perfect game, but he played his role sufficiently and was there when it mattered. Fantasy-wise, you  will need to closely monitor if there is any impact on the likes of Dean Cox.

Buzzkill

Sharrod Wellingham – Just when he was beginning to look like a handy contributor the Eagles midfield, Wellingham suffered an injury to his ankle and was subbed out of the game in the second quarter. Hope you didn’t get sucked in!

Western Bulldogs (defeated by Gold Coast)

The Buzz

Will Minson  - Is he having his best season ever? I’m not sure, but this is certainly the first year I can remember that Minson’s name has not been used as a rucking division punchline. He has had a wonderfully consistent thus far, and was able to dominate the match – particularly after Smith’s departure.

Jackson Macrae – Macrae showed some dash and poise – which is always impressive in a first year player – running through the midfield. I would suggest that if you want to move on him, you do it this week, as he’s only had a moderate price rise.

Buzzkill

Brett Goodes – Everyone’s favourite early season rookie-priced defender early in the season, Goodes has had a worrying tendency to cough the ball up under pressure. Given the nature of the Dogs side at the moment, it would be surprising if that caused him to lose his place, but it’s certainly something to monitor.

1: Brisbane Lions:

With Michael Voss dominating James Hird and Simon Black setting the pace early I felt the need to instinctively throw on some Ja Rule and log into MSN Messenger. Embracing a throwback to a decade ago the Lions took the fight to the Bombers and gave them a handy lesson not only in how to express a will to win but how to be efficient when going forward.

Essendon would accumulate fifteen more inside fifties than the Lions in the second half (31-16) but would be outscored 5.8.38 to 8.7.55. Via some backwards Matrix level once in a lifetime circumstance Brisbane managed to score from fifteen of their sixteen entries inside fifty in the second half. It was like witnessing someone other than Nathan Jones in a Demons jumper actually giving a shit. You’ll probably never see it ever again.

2: Close Games:

The average margin over the last fortnight of matches prior to round eight commencing was 44.33 points with fifteen of eighteen games decided by more than twenty-five points. Bor-ing. This week the average margin for the round thus far has been halved to 22.16 points. We’ve seen four games decided by ten points or less including a goal after the siren (welp) and a draw. Even GWS came to the party and kept their margin against Hawthorn under three-figures eventually going down in an eighty-three point thriller. You owed us, football gods. May the fourth quarter cold sweats and gnawing on finger nails continue.

3: Lachie Hansen:

I’d prefer to ignore anything related to Friday night for obvious reasons but considering Lachie Hansen has owned prime real estate under the bus this season his efforts deserve a mention. Utilising chloroform is frowned upon in AFL circles (I’ve checked) so in order to keep West Coast’s tall forward line quiet somebody in the Kangaroos defence had to stand up.

Hansen’s knees never buckled on his way to twenty disposals at 85% efficiency, a career high fifteen marks (five contested) and double digit “watch Lachie shirk this contest!” incorrect assumptions from some pessimistic idiot in my lounge room (me). The final ten seconds of the game may have been permanently burnt from my memory but not hating on a performance from Lachie Hansen is rarer than a convincing Vin Diesel performance in any scene from the Fast and Furious franchise.

Never. Forget.

4: Jeremy Cameron:

It was pretty obvious that the Giants key forward was headed for stardom after last season when his first year splits were on par with a third year Tom Hawkins, so this shouldn’t come as a shock. Young Jeremy took bottom eight sides apart in his debut year averaging just under three marks inside fifty and 2.5 goals per game but struggled against quality opposition. You can throw that narrative out the window with the twenty year old now producing against all comers.

Cameron has sixteen goals, sixteen inside fifties and twelve marks inside fifty in his last four games. The kid is a damn monster and should be credited with top five key forward status heading into 2014. He’s that good and best of all he only turned twenty a month ago.

5: Gold Coast:

The baptism of fire will come in the next month with fixtures against Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne and Essendon but right now the Suns are the feel good story of the competition after recording back to back wins for the first time in their history. After eight weeks of footy in 2013 they sit outside the top eight on percentage, have already surpassed their win total from last season and are yet to experience a loss greater than fifty points after having nine in 2012.

With Charlie Dixon missing through injury there were serious question marks over how the Suns would source marks inside fifty. After locating just two targets inside fifty in the first term coach Guy McKenna opened up the forward line and saw his troops register seventeen marks inside fifty for the remaining three quarters compared to the equally as challenged forward line of the Dogs which produced just four after quarter time, and this was all with inside fifties finishing practically even at 54-51 Gold Coast’s favour.

Hate

1: Score Review System:

Just set it on fire and bury it forever. It wastes time, it’s cheap and it doesn’t work. I’ve never been on worse terms with the word “inconclusive”, it now drives me insane. The entire process is embarrassing and has reached the point where I’d rather lose a grand final due to an umpire missing the footy shading the post than deal with it ever again.

Goal umpires had already become second guessing technology dependent slaves to irrelevancy and now they’re being consistently overruled by another umpire after *punches table* footage is deemed “inconclusive”. Everybody cringes when the umpire motions to the camera for the score review, not because we don’t want the correct decision to be made, but because we know they’ll stuff it up regardless.

2: Ducking Plague:

Why do we punish divers but not duckers? If you can get away with it, do it. I have no issue with players making the most of a situation and with West Coast in a win at all costs spot on Friday night they had to employ Essendon’s “whatever it takes” strategy, only with less substances and more ducking.

If dropping the knees gives you an advantage and there’s no consequence from AFL house then it’s only natural that a player do so. You can’t blame umpires either; they’re already operating in a fast paced environment littered with four thousand rules of which 95% contain grey areas. Yes, ducking is terrible to see and although everyone has a different definition the “spirit of the game” appears to be taking one in the teeth as a result. It’s an eyesore facet of the game that exists because it creates a benefit, just like tanking, although tanking doesn’t exist.

Now I’m confused, someone please fine me $500k.

3: Essendon Effort:

For the third week in a row the Bombers output has declined something chronic. This week on the wheel of negativity Essendon spun up “lack of effort” and assumed the position accordingly. It was obvious Essendon took the Lions lightly and approached the contest as though they had some sort of entitlement to the four points.

Brisbane was the exact opposite and took to the field gloves up, ready for the fight. The Lions won the tackle count 72-49, the defensive fifty tackle count 25-2 and pressure acts tally by a differential of +30. Dayne Zorko activated motivation God mode and went after anything with a red sash like Dennis Rodman on a loose ball finishing with forty-three pressure acts of his own. For a team with a target on their back and top four ambitions you’d expect desire to be the last thing missing from Essendon. Maybe they’re just not that good…

4: Bulldogs Forward Line:

We unearth the big issues at Footy Tragic and none has gone more under the radar than the Bulldogs lack of forward line bite. On a serious note it has to be painful for Doggies supporters to sit through every week. Since the 127 point outing in Round 1 this season the Dogs have averaged just 69 points and fewer than eight marks inside fifty per game. In their last nineteen games the Dogs have a 1-18 win/loss record, have topped the ton just once (Round 1 this year) and averaged 65 points per game.

Sure, delivery is limited due to the Bulldogs outside issues (they’ve won six of eight contested possession counts this season) but nine marks from fifty-one inside fifties and a 50/50 split for time in forward half percentage for a return of eight goals against the Suns is forehead through brick wall stuff. It looks like twenty weeks of stagnated footy with little creativity from the coaches box to top it all off. Concerns about Brendan McCartney are gaining steam as the Dogs are continually dishing up the same identical output.

5: Sydney’s Final Five Minutes:

After two hours of Ross Lyon and Horse Longmire trading tactical blows it appeared as though the Swans had it in the bag with a twenty-seven point lead just prior to the twenty minute mark of the final term. With the Dockers getting nowhere, hoofing the long ball inside fifty and butchering chance after chance any threat of a Fremantle comeback appeared dead in the water.

Then all of a sudden, everything clicked. With Sydney packed up and checked out mentally the Dockers kicked the final four goals and if it weren’t for Sam Reid could have easily committed the ultimate robbery. It was a just result in the end with Fremantle having fourteen more inside fifties, ten more scoring shots and nearly ten extra minute of time in their forward half.

What’s concerning though is the Swans inability to kill the game, especially against a side minus game winning x-factor in Stephen Hill, Matthew Pavlich and in the final quarter Michael Walters. Last night was a final five minute disaster for the Swans. Leave that stuff for the choking pros, like North Melbourne.

Keep it together, my fellow Kangaroo brethren.

Repeat after me: Sixth youngest list, Sixth youngest list, Sixth youngest list

You can follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

PORT ADELAIDE POWER

The Power have been very good in 2013. Their only real blemish was a thumping at the hands of Richmond last weekend (they were still good in the North loss).

Justin Westhoff played like a man inspired in the first 4 rounds, Hamish Hartlett is finally on the park and Travis Boak has taken his game to a new level as captain. Kane Cornes is experiencing a footballing renaissance, Wingard is showing us why he went #6 in the 2011 draft and pint sized Jake Neade has become an instant cult figure.

Ken Hinkley hasn’t yet proven himself a master coach but he is looking a far better man manager than his predecessor. You need only watch the same players that sulked through last year who are now playing with a sense of purpose and (fulfilling every fan’s most basic aspiration for their team) having a crack.

The loss against Richmond was the first major reality check for Hinkley’s mob in 2013. With a tougher draw in coming weeks, the honeymoon is over and we’ll get a bit of perspective on how the Power stacks up against some quality teams.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

While Port’s 5-0 start was a pleasant surprise, 3 of those victories came against Melbourne and the two expansion sides. The other two wins were against Adelaide and West Coast who aren’t exactly flying high either. However, most would’ve thought the Power a 2-5 or worse side at this stage.

As stated earlier; with Carlton (Etihad), Geelong (AAMI), Dogs (Darwin), GWS (Skoda) and Sydney (AAMI) to come – we’ll find out a lot more about Port’s mettle by the end of the next ‘quarter’. 7-5 come round 14 beckons; anymore will be a bonus, any less a regression.

RICHMOND TIGERS

If Brisbane 2013=Carlton 2005 & Collingwood=Hawthorn 2009/10 the Tigers probably=North Melbourne 2010/11.

Richmond bolted out of the blocks winning the first 3 games of the season against Carlton, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs but then received a major reality check with consecutive losses against Collingwood, Fremantle and Geelong, before pummelling Port last week.

A major criticism of Brad Scott’s tenure at North has been that while the Roos beat up on the crap teams they are consistently found wanting against the competition’s heavyweights. That is about where Richmond is at.

However, coming from a far lower base (in 2010 many were comparing Richmond to Fitzroy 1996) with steady improvement since 2010 – ‘flat track bully’ seems the next logical step for the Tiges.

Dustin Martin is in good nick, Trent Cotchin likewise, Deledio is heating up and Chris Newman looks a freer player for giving up the captaincy. There is a lot to like about Richmond, they play an attractive brand of football and the have got to 4-3 without all guns blazing.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

Looking at the draw pre season, most would’ve thought the Tigers a good enough side to be 3-4 at a minimum at this stage.

The next stanza of 2013 presents the opportunity for Richmond to really set up their season. Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (MCG), West Coast (Subi), Adelaide (MCG) and Dogs (Etihad) all represent winnable games for the Tiges if they are at their best. However, consistency won’t be their strength at this stage of their development. Richmond should be 7-5 at worst by the end of the next quarter.

ST KILDA SAINTS

For a team that has been up toward the pointy end of the ladder for the best part of a decade, a slide is usually inevitable. Most could see it coming with St Kilda, which is most likely a major reason (apart from cash) why Ross Lyon took the money and ran to Freo.

If the Saints continue to fall down the ladder Lyon’s villainy will grow within the club’s supporter base. He will be the man who failed twice in netting a flag, took a flat earth philosophy to developing youth and then scarpered at the first sign of trouble. In reality, he was a couple of lucky breaks away from tripling the Saints’ premiership tally.

On face value, the Saints results in 2013 are hardly earth-shattering for a team that has: a core of players past their prime, lost a key player to free agency, still has the aftertaste of two grand final failures and is in a total state of transition while trying to adjust to a new coach’s gameplan tweaks.

However, their have been some surprises; the Gold Coast loss was unexpected and disappointing, on the flipside no-one would’ve considered them to beat Carlton and Nick Riewoldt’s form has been an inspiration.

Scott Watters has also been adept at managing external expectations as well as the initial transitional phases of this team. While they could do with a star or two; David Armitage, Jarryn Geary, Ben McEvoy, Jack Steven and Dylan Roberton have all stepped up. Youngsters such as Murdoch, Newnes, Ross, Saad, Siposs and Wright have also dispelled the myth that the Saints have no quality youngsters coming through.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

As stated above 2-5 is about where most would’ve had the Saints pre season.

If other veterans can have half the form renaissance of their lionhearted skipper, they’ll go through the rest of the season undefeated. With Adelaide (AAMI), Bulldogs (Etihad), North (Etihad), West Coast (Etihad) and Melbourne (MCG) to come, St Kilda has a window of opportunity to push up the ladder towards the top 8 as none of its immediate opponents are flying.

The Saints should be aiming for 5-7 by the end of the next ‘quarter’. At worst they’ll be 4-8.

SYDNEY SWANS

It’s steady as she goes for the reigning premiers. Whilst the Swans have been convincingly beaten by fellow flag fancies in Geelong and Hawthorn – they’ve been comfortable in beating the 5 bottom 10 clubs they’ve faced so far.

Jarrad McVeigh has been sensational and Mike Pyke is playing like a man who has had the fear of Tippett God put into him. Dan Hannebury, Kieran Jack and Josh Kennedy are perhaps the best inside midfield combination in the game.

There is plenty of room for improvement though; Adam Goodes has battled for form and Lewis Jetta has had all but none – if those two get off the chain; Sydney will be even harder to beat. Kurt Tippett will make his debut in the back half of the season and regardless of his own form, his presence will give the dangerous Sam Reid a real chop out.

A soft draw has no doubt helped, but the Swans aren’t showing any obvious signs of a premiership hangover.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

5-2 is par for the Swans at this stage. A tougher series of opponents awaits Sydney in the next ‘quarter’: Freo (SCG), Pies (MCG), Dons (SCG), Crows & Port (AAMI x2) should provide a sterner test for the reigning premier. All 5 games are winnable, at the absolute worst Sydney will be 8-4 come round 14.

WEST COAST EAGLES

For time immemorial there has always been an ‘it’ team of the pre season that has ultimately flopped in the season proper. While it may seem strange to say at 3-4, West Coast has filled that role.

While the Eagles have had their injury problems, wins against Brisbane, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs don’t look that credible in 2013. Whenever faced with a better than garbage opposition the Eagles have fallen short. It has been a disappointing opening stanza for a team that many had pegged as flag favourites in the pre season. Top 4 hopes have just about been extinguished.

Josh Kennedy, Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Scott Selwood and Daniel Kerr (when fit) have been solid. Jack Darling has been up and down, ditto Andrew Gaff and Will Schofield has had a poor season.

Injuries have been cruel to West Coast: Darren Glass, Nic Naitanui, Beau Waters and Mark LeCras being absent has held the team back. While he wasn’t an out and out star, the departure of Quinten Lynch has had a negative impact structurally.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

Perth has been far from a fortress for the Eagles in 2013. 1-3 at Subi has been a sub par performance. Injuries notwithstanding, most would’ve had the Eagles anywhere between 5-2 or 7-0 at this stage of the season. Football’s a funny old game.

North (Subi), GWS (Skoda), Richmond (Subi), St Kilda (Etihad) & Hawthorn (Etihad) presents an interesting road ahead for West Coast. The GWS game is the only genuine gimme game but the rest aren’t exactly unwinnable. With key players coming back, the Eagles should be 6-6 at worst by round 14.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

After a stunning upset victory in Round 1, the Bulldogs have come crashing back to earth, losing 6 games on the trot. The Adelaide and West Coast losses were uncompetitive and while they had their moments in other games, the Dogs haven’t seriously threatened for a win since their annihilation of Brisbane.

Western Bulldogs are in a not dissimilar position to St Kilda; an ageing core, with few players of quality coming into their prime and senior players struggling for motivation in a defined transitional period with the knowledge that their shot at a flag is probably gone. A lack of key position depth and fitness/injury concerns have also dogged (pun intended) the team formerly known as Footscray.

The Dogs really need to unearth a long term key forward or two – Liam Jones is a better 2^nd or 3^rd banana, while Roughead and Cordy haven’t been convincing. Coach McCartney has earmarked Tom Williams for a key forward role but yeti sightings in the Kalahari are more common than Tom Williams on a footy field.

Adam Cooney has been in fine form, along with Nick Riewoldt, Kane Cornes and Luke Hodge he is having a career renaissance. Griffen has also been good when on the park.

While there is genuine consensus that this is a team in a state of flux and rebuild, McCartney will be feeling the pinch if they can’t win a few games in the back half of the season.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

1-6 is about where (if not slightly better than) most pundits would’ve had the Dogs at this stage of the season. Gold Coast (Metricon), Saints (Etihad), Port (Darwin), Collingwood & Richmond (Etihad x2) is the road ahead for the Dogs. On current form it is hard (not impossible) to see them being better than 2-10 by round 14.

If you love heavily contested and defensive footy then the round eight clash between Sydney and Fremantle is for you. With both teams knocking on the front door of a top four spot there’s plenty at stake.

The Swans are essentially adhering to expectation with losses to fellow contenders Geelong and Hawthorn, and they’ll be keen to get back on the winners list after returning from Melbourne empty handed.

Fremantle’s ruck department may have gone the way of Celebrity Splash but that hasn’t stopped them from putting together three straight wins and building some momentum. Sydney has won nine of the last thirteen between the two, including seven of nine at home, although the Dockers will have plenty of confidence after experiencing victories at the SCG in 2010 and 2011.

Key Indicators

The Dockers aren’t big ball winners but given how impressive their defensive output is it’s largely irrelevant and when they do have ball in hand they use it well. On average Fremantle opponents win more possession but they do little with it which is primarily due to the suffocating pressure the Dockers apply and their disciplined zone work. Fremantle have the fourth best uncontested marks differential, hold opponents to the sixth fewest effective kicks per game and fourth worst kicking efficiency which results in a lot of frantic circle work via handball. With opponents constantly on the move and a live ball often in play the Dockers are able to force rushed decision making and acquire the most valuable asset in the game, opposition turnovers. Behind league leader Geelong the Dockers rank second for turnovers from kicks differential and as a result sit fourth behind Essendon, Geelong and Port Adelaide for points from turnover differential. They’re a very disciplined outfit under the guidance of Ross Lyon and unless your skills are on song and among the best in the competition they’re incredibly tough to break down.

Offensively Fremantle will attack via the best option available whether long or short but almost always by foot; they rank fourth in the AFL for long kicks and sixth for short kicks, whilst maintaining the league’s highest kicks to handball ratio. When they do find a target the Dockers don’t mess around ranking second behind only Brisbane for mark and play on percentage. Individually Fremantle are all about the no “I” in team mantra with no player inside the AFL’s top twenty for disposals per game or marks inside fifty per game, instead it’s a vast array of players spreading the load which is partly forced given their injury list but to their credit hasn’t become a serious issue.

Personnel wise Chris Mayne and Michael Walters have been great up forward totalling eleven marks inside fifty each and combining for thirty-three goals. Matthew De Boer, Michael Barlow and David Mundy are all top ten in the competition for tackles with Mundy and Barlow doing the grunt work at stoppages. Nathan Fyfe will return from suspension which is critical as he ranks second in the league (per game) for inside fifties, fourth for contested possessions and eleventh for clearances.

Defensively is where the Dockers really impress with Luke McPharlin and Paul Duffield the avenue out of defence ranking eighth and eleventh for rebound fifties. The pair is also filling the hole with great reward and both sit top ten for interceptions. Zac Dawson and Michael Johnson are combining for eleven one percenters per game whilst Garrick Ibbotson has been somewhat of a revelation leading Fremantle in uncontested possessions, ranking top twenty for effective disposals and eleventh for interceptions. It’s a very settled back-six and one that can burn you both ways.
 

 
Sydney operates with a little more predictability via foot compared to the Dockers and almost always opts for the long option. The Swans lead the league (by a fair margin) in long kicks and are dead last in uncontested marks but are nowhere near as married to moving solely by boot ranking in the competitions bottom five for kick to handball ratio, and mark and play on percentage. From a negating perspective Sydney are right alongside Fremantle in the upper echelon of defensive units holding opponents to the fifth fewest effective kicks per game, fifth fewest uncontested marks and third lowest kicking efficiency. You can safely bookmark that whoever brings the better skill set to the table will more than likely pocket the four points.

Sydney will look to keep the game as contested as possible and with their cluster of inside talent and tackling ability it’s no secret as to why. Josh Kennedy ranks second in the competition for contested possessions and clearances, Ryan O’Keefe sits third for contested possessions and eighth for clearances, whilst Kieran Jack is second overall for tackles and twelfth for inside fifties. Luke Parker further ads to the Swans inside muscle ranking top ten for tackles and we’re all aware of the exploits from veteran Jude Bolton. On the outside Dan Hannebery has taken his game to the next level and is in Brownlow level form averaging sixteen uncontested possessions per game. Like Fremantle the Swans are lacking a consistent target up forward but have a slew of contributors when it comes to putting points on the board. Ben McGlynn, Adam Goodes, Jude Bolton, Mike Pyke and out of form forward Sam Reid all rank inside the top fifty for marks inside fifty with McGlynn, Goodes, Bolton, Reid and Jarrad McVeigh combining for fifty-three goals on the season.

These two teams match up quite well and we may find ourselves in a low scoring arm wrestle with both sides harbouring such dependable defences. For Sydney Heath Grundy and Ted Richards rank top five for interceptions whilst the forever underrated but ever dependable Nick Smith has continued ploughing his trade as Mr Consistent. Nick Malceski has been the most effective avenue out of defence leading the competition for rebound fifties and is seventh for bounces, there’s no doubt a forward tag could have significant dividends for the Dockers especially with the injured Rhyce Shaw still missing.

Mike Pyke may just find himself with the most important role on Saturday night with Fremantle’s Jonathon Griffin absent due to season ending knee injury number four thousand. Griffin’s production will be sorely missed, he was sitting fourth for effective hitouts an area where Pyke himself is no slouch ranking eighth. With Sandilands still five weeks away and Zac Clarke yet to see senior football this season Pyke’s work in the middle, up forward and plucking contested grabs around the ground will be crucial.
 

 

Scoring Sources

Last week the Dockers were blitzed by the Magpies at clearances, surrendering forty-five points with the majority coming in the third quarter. Fremantle were absolutely lethal on the counter attack though recording the fourth highest points from turnovers for the round outscoring Collingwood by fifty-two points. The same narrative has held strong for the season to date with Fremantle sourcing the fourth fewest points from clearances but the fourth most points from turnovers for a differential of +118 which highlights their defensive work and mirrors their output from last season. The turnover is particularly valuable for a side with the Dockers makeup; their small forwards are able to consistently find space, get the jump on their direct opponent and track back to goal with great effect.

Sydney on the other hand are more focused on generating scoring punch from their midfield and sit sixth from points from clearances and sixth from points from turnover differential. The worry for the Swans is that last week the Hawks showed how vulnerable they can be on their way to seventy-eight points from turnovers against the usually clean Swans. After experiencing the wrath of Hawthorn you’d imagine Sydney would be focused on tightening the screws. That could prove quite tough against arguably the best defensive outfit in the competition in Fremantle.

Last Time They Met

Last time Fremantle and Sydney played the Swans were victorious by thirteen points at the SCG in a tight contest. As expected the game was fought on contested grounds with the two teams combining for 332 contested possessions and 147 tackles, with the Swans winning both counts. Sydney narrowly edged the Dockers in the skills department finishing with a +7 effective kicks advantage but it was Fremantle who would have been kicking themselves due to wasted opportunities.

Shane Mumford would be absent and the Dockers ruck unit of Aaron Sandilands, Kepler Bradley and Zach Clarke dominated Mark Seaby and the hitouts 63-25 resulting in ten more clearances and ten more inside fifties but it wasn’t enough as the Swans experienced backline stood tall.

The big talking point for Fremantle this week will be that loss of their ruck prowess with no Sandilands, Griffin or Kepler Bradley to press their advantage. For the Swans Mark Seaby is long gone and Shane Mumford will again be missing but big Canadian Mike Pyke should be able to assume the role as the premier ruckman on the park with Jesse White in support if Sydney opt to go tall (eleven hitouts last week).

Sydney were starved of tall’s last time the two teams met yet still managed to win despite being decimated in the middle. Fremantle now face a similar challenge and given the Swans impressive midfield you’d have to think the circumstances this time around favour Sydney.

Who Will Win and Why?

There have been questions about Fremantle rotating all season and this week will serve as another test of Fremantle’s depth and Ross Lyon’s creativity in the coach’s box.

One issue for the Dockers will be whether or not they can find one alternative up forward to aid their smalls. Last week Alex Silvagni looked the liveliest of the pinch hitting options although his finishing was wayward kicking just the one goal from five shots. Jack Hannath and Zac Clarke have size but lack experience. Outside of Mayne, Walters and Hayden Ballentyne’s usual production it’s hard to see Fremantle locating a consistent target inside fifty and doing enough on the scoreboard to get a win especially when Sydney’s defence is set. The Swans will no doubt be keyed in on limiting their turnovers as well after such a reckless outing against Hawthorn. Charity will be limited.

Ryan Crowley will slow down a premier Swans midfielder but with so much talent on the field for Sydney it’s impossible to keep them all quiet, even for a side as good defensively as the Dockers.

Only twice has the margin between these two exceeded 40 points with twenty of their twenty-five matches decided by margins in the range of 13-38 points. This matchup should be no different and a tight defensive tussle looks to be a given with both sides relatively similar in how they operate and how they score.

When coming off a loss and returning to the SCG the Swans have posted a 19-4 win/loss record since 2006 so expect them to be hungry and focused. Sydney’s extra touch of class in the middle and home ground advantage should be enough to see them back in the winner’s circle.

Tip: Sydney by 21 points

You can Follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

WEST COAST EAGLES v NORTH MELBOURNE
Friday May 17, 6:40pm, Patersons Stadium

West Coast
B: Jacob Brennan, Darren Glass, Will Schofield
HB: Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Beau Waters
C: Matt Rosa, Scott Selwood, Andrew Gaff
HF: Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Chris Masten
F: Josh Hill, Josh Kennedy, Daniel Kerr
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey
Int: Brad Sheppard, Sharrod Wellingham, Dean Cox, Adam Selwood
Emerg: Mitch Brown, Bradd Dalziell, Mark Hutchings

In: Kerr, A. Selwood, Waters, Masten
Out: Brown, Dalziell, Smith, Hutchings

North Melbourne
B: Scott McMahon, Scott Thompson, Jamie Macmillan
HB: Daniel Wells Nathan Grima, Michael Firrito
C: Sam Gibson, Shaun Atley, Ryan Bastinac
HF: Ben Cunnington, Drew Petrie, Brent Harvey
F: Lindsay Thomas, Majak Daw, Leigh Adams
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Jack Ziebell
Int: Lachie Hansen, Sam Wright, Aaron Black, Aaron Mullett
Emerg: Kieren Harper, Taylor Hine, Will Sierakowski

In: Grima
Out: Sierakowski

 
ESSENDON v BRISBANE LIONS
Saturday May 18, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium

Essendon
B: Jake Carlisle, Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker
HB: Elliott Kavanagh, Michael Hurley, Michael Hibberd
C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell
HF: David Zaharakis, Patrick Ryder, Brendon Goddard
F: David Myers, Stewart Crameri, Jason Winderlich
Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Heath Hocking, Ben Howlett
Int: Nick Kommer, Jackson Merrett, Jake Melksham, Mark Baguley
Emerg: Nathan Lovett-Murray, Will Hams, Tayte Pears

In: Stanton, Ryder, Kavanagh, Merrett
Out: Lovett-Murray, Davey, Gumbleton, Hardingham

Brisbane
B: Mitch Golby, Daniel Merrett, Ashley McGrath
HB:Joel Patfull, Justin Clarke, Elliot Yeo
C: Jed Adcock, Brent Moloney, Pearce Hanley
HF: Dayne Zorko, Jonathan Brown, Ryan Lester
F: Jack Redden, Jordan Lisle, James Polkinghorne
Foll: Matthew Leuenberger, Tom Rockliff, Simon Black
Int: Andrew Raines, Rohan Bewick, Brent Staker, Sam Mayes
Emerg: Patrick Karnezis, Josh Green, Sam Docherty

In: Staker
Out: Green

 
HAWTHORN v GWS GIANTS
Saturday May 18, 2:10pm, Aurora Stadium

Hawthorn
B: Taylor Duryea, Brian Lake, Luke Hodge
HB: Shaun Burgoyne, Ben Stratton, Grant Birchall
C: Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
HF: Michael Osborne, Lance Franklin, Liam Shiels
F: David Hale, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
Foll: Max Bailey, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis
Int: Matt Spangher, Jonathan Simpkin, Jack Gunston, Paul Puopolo
Emerg: Cheney, Guerra, Grimley

In: Spangher
Out: Gibson

GWS Giants
B: Stephen Gilham, Joshua Bruce, Aidan Corr
HB: Adam Kennedy, Tim Mohr, Toby Greene
C: Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, Mark Whiley
HF: Tomas Bugg, Adam Tomlinson, Rhys Palmer
F: Taylor Adams, Jeremy Cameron, Devon Smith
Foll: Jonathan Giles, Tom Scully, Stephen Coniglio
Int: Dean Brogan, Anthony Miles, Tim Golds, Dylan Shiel
Emerg: Curtly Hampton, Kurt Aylett, Samuel Frost

In: Miles, Bugg, Golds, Whiley
Out: Reid, Treloar, Townsend, Williams

 
GOLD COAST SUNS v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Saturday May 18, 4:40pm, Metricon Stadium

Gold Coast
B: Trent McKenzie, Sam Day, Danny Stanley
HB: David Swallow, Rory Thompson, Greg Broughton
C: Matt Shaw, Gary Ablett, Jarrod Harbrow
HF: Harley Bennell, Thomas Lynch, Jesse Lonergan
F: Brandon Matera, Stephen May, Aaron Hall
Foll: Zac Smith, Jaeger O’Meara, Dion Prestia
Int: Jack Hutchins, Campbell Brown, Jared Brennan, Luke Russell
Emerg: Tom Nicholls, Clay Cameron, Tim Sumner

In: Russell
Out: Murphy

Western Bulldogs
B: Jason Johannisen, Jordan Roughead, Dale Morris
HB: Adam Cooney, Tom Young, Brett Goodes
C: Clay Smith, Matthew Boyd, Ryan Griffen
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Daniel Cross
F: Luke Dahlhaus, Jake Stringer, Daniel Giansiracusa
Foll: Will Minson, Liam Picken, Tom Liberatore
Int: Lukas Markovic, Koby Stevens, Jack Macrae, Nick Lower
Emerg: Mitch Wallis, Tom Williams, Tom Campbell

In: Goodes, Stevens, Stringer, Macrae
Out: Addison, Austin, Tutt, Wallis

 
COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG CATS
Saturday May 18, 7:40pm, MCG

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Jordan Russell, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Brent Macaffer
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Sam Dwyer
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int: Andrew Krakouer, Jarrod Witts, Josh Thomas, Paul Seedsman
Emg: Alan Didak, Ben Sinclair, Caolan Mooney

In: Ball, Russell, Witts, Williams
Out: D. Thomas, Shaw, Clarke, Mooney;

Geelong
B: Andrew Mackie, Tom Lonergan, Corey Enright
HB: Cameron Guthrie, Harry Taylor, Joel Corey
C: Mitch Duncan, Jimmy Bartel, Steven Motlop
HF: Mathew Stokes, Steve Johnson, Billie Smedts
F: Allen Christensen, Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly
R: Trent West, Joel Selwood, George Horlin-Smith
IC: Josh Hunt, Jordan Schroder, Jackson Thurlow, Mark Blicavs
E: Josh Caddy, Shane Kersten, George Burbury

In: Corey, J. Hunt
Out: Kelly, T. Hunt

 
SYDNEY SWANS v FREMANTLE
Saturday May 18, 7:40pm, SCG

Sydney
B: Nick Malceski, Ted Richards, Nick Smith
HB: Marty Mattner, Heath Grundy, Dane Rampe
C: Lewis Jetta, Ryan O’Keefe, Dan Hannebery
HF: Jarrad McVeigh, Sam Reid, Jude Bolton
F: Tommy Walsh, Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn
Foll: Mike Pyke, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack
Int: Mitch Morton, Shane Mumford, Craig Bird, Luke Parker
Emerg: Tony Armstrong, Andrejs Everitt, Jesse White

In: Morton, Mumford, Walsh
Out: White, Armstrong, Lamb

Fremantle
B: Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Michael Johnson
HB: Garrick Ibbotson, Luke McPharlin, Alex Silvagni
C: Danyle Pearce, Ryan Crowley, Paul Duffield
HF: Michael Barlow, Chris Mayne, Nathan Fyfe
F: Matt de Boer, Zac Clarke, Michael Walters
Foll: Jack Hannath, Clancee Pearce, David Mundy
Int: Cameron Sutcliffe, Hayden Ballantyne, Hayden Crozier, Nick Suban
Emerg: Tom Sheridan, Tanner Smith, Tendai Mzungu

In: Clarke, Fyfe
Out: Griffin, Mzungu

 
CARLTON v PORT ADELAIDE
Sunday May 19, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton
B: Mitch Robinson, Michael Jamison, Lachie Henderson
HB: Zach Tuohy, Dennis Armfield, Simon White
C: Kane Lucas, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ed Curnow, Andrew Walker, Jeff Garlett
F: Brock McLean, Jarrad Waite, Matthew Kreuzer
Foll: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland
Int: Josh Bootsma, Troy Menzel, Tom Bell, Shaun Hampson, Sam Rowe, Aaron Joseph, Jaryd Cachia

In: Waite, Rowe, Joseph, Menzel, Bell, Bootsma
Out: Betts, Ellard, Yarran

Port Adelaide
FB: Lewis Stevenson, Alipate Carlile, Cameron O’Shea
HB: Dom Cassisi, Tom Jonas, Andrew Moore
C: Kane Cornes, Travis Boak, Brad Ebert
HF: Matthew Broadbent, Justin Westhoff, Angus Monfries
FF: Robbie Gray, Jay Schulz, Chad Wingard
Foll: Jarrad Redden, Hamish Hartlett, Oliver Wines
Int from: Sam Colquhoun, Jake Neade, Cameron Hitchcock, Matthew Lobbe, Kane Mitchell, Paul Stewart, Tom Logan

In: Cassisi, Logan, Lobbe, Stewart, Hitchcock
Out: Stewart, Heath

 
RICHMOND v MELBOURNE
Sunday May 19, 3:20pm, MCG

Richmond
B: Steven Morris, Alex Rance, Troy Chaplin
HB: Chris Newman, Brandon Ellis, Bachar Houli
C: Shaun Grigg, Trent Cotchin, Dan Jackson
HF: Brett Deledio, Shane Edwards, Jake King
F: Luke McGuane, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
Foll: Orren Stephenson, Nathan Foley, Nick Vlastuin
Int: Robin Nahas, Jake Batchelor, Matthew Arnot, Matt Dea, Aaron Edwards, Ty Vickery, Matt White

In: A. Edwards, White, Cotchin, Vickery, Arnot, Dea
Out: Tuck, Knights, Maric

Melbourne
B: Neville Jetta, James Frawley, Dean Terlich
HB: Daniel Nicholson, James Sellar, Colin Garland
C: Jack Trengove, Jordie McKenzie, Michael Evans
HF: Luke Tapscott, Lynden Dunn, Jeremy Howe
F: Max Gawn, Chris Dawes, Jimmy Toumpas
FOLL: Mark Jamar, Matt Jones, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): James Strauss, James Magner, Dean Kent, Aaron Davey, Troy Davis, Jake Spencer, Rohan Bail

In: Jamar, Magner, Trengove, Jetta, Davis, Toumpas
Out: Byrnes, Sylvia, Viney

 
ADELAIDE CROWS v ST KILDA
Sunday May 19, 4:10pm, AAMI Stadium

Adelaide
B: Andy Otten, Ben Rutten, Luke Brown
HB: David Mackay, Daniel Talia, Brent Reilly
C: Brodie Smith, Scott Thompson, Nathan van Berlo
HF: Patrick Dangerfield, Shaun McKernan, Brodie Smith
F: Sam Kerridge, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Richard Douglas, Rory Sloane
Int: Ian Callinan, Ricky Henderson, Matthew Jaensch, Rory Laird, Jarryd Lyons, Jason Porplyzia, Matthew Wright

In: Jaensch, Callinan, Henderson
Out: Nil

St Kilda
B: Jarryn Geary, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt
HB: Sean Dempster, Dylan Roberton, Jack Newnes
C: Farren Ray, Nick Dal Santo, Arryn Siposs
HF: Terry Milera, Rhys Stanley, Leigh Montagna
F: Tom Hickey, Nick Riewoldt, Stephen Milne
Foll: Ben McEvoy, David Armitage, Jack Steven
Int: Clint Jones, Seb Ross, Ahmed Saad, Sam Dunell, Jason Blake, Jimmy Webster, Beau Maister

In: Blake, Maister, Jones, Dunell.
Out: Wright

 
Well, we’ve been racing without luck. Our fanciful multi and our omen bet was destroyed by the dishonesty of Ryan Griffen, whose work on the periphery was irrelevant when the Roos won the game in decisive style late in the third quarter and early in the fourth. Of course, we were pulling ourselves at half time. A disappointing result. As for My Girlfriend’s Collarbones Multi, I should’ve mentioned that they were so jagged I’ve cut myself on them in many heated moments of passion. I’m not sure what all of the excuses were for the benchless Blues, but they couldn’t get a side on the park, much like when Richmond got crippled with injury when they carried Footy Tragic’s hopes in the week previous. This week, we will again divide our $100 free bet from Sportsbet. And again, we expect all three to shit in.

Rent to Slab Multi

I’ve got the rent money this week, Footy Tragics. And it’s a disgrace to me. What’s the point of paying rent if I haven’t got any beer to drink in the dwelling I recline in? I’d rather risk it all and piss off my millionaire landlord in the event my desperate attempt to get lubricated backfires. West Coast porked North Melbourne in a final last year. And they will pork them again tonight. So we’ll have our slab in time for Saturday night. Guaranteeing a wet weekend.

$35  on West Coast to WIN @ $1.36 = $47.60

Fanciful Multi

My father was around for a drink while I typed up this investment. Since my modesty has been well and truly restored after loss after loss on this website, I welcomed his input. I found Dad to be incisive, but deranged.* So I continued on alone, without much needed help, while he sipped at a martini on the balcony and I downed Melbourne Bitter after Melbourne Bitter. I hope that this particular beverage, turns out to be inspirational. Here are our selections for this week:

West Coast TRI BET over 15.5 pts @ $1.71
Essendon PICK YOUR OWN LINE -32.5 @$1.32
Fremantle LINE of +17.5 @$1.92
Geelong WIN @$1.33

$35 @ $5.76 = $201.73

Choose your own Omen Bet

As expected, I woke up this morning. Underjoyed, I went out the front to get the morning paper. The Age weighed heavy against my torn rotator cuff. My dog followed me and started barking at the sun. In a suprising turn of events, she turned her back to the sun and defecated. I knew the shit was an omen. But I wasn’t sure what she meant. Were the dogs shit? Or would they shit on the Suns?  I got her to flip a coin. It came up tails. Dogs to WIN.

$30 on Western Bulldogs WIN @ $2.35 = $70.50

 
 
When the inevitable occurs and our investments prevail, we will have a cool $219.83 for The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia
 
 
 
*My old man won a trip to Europe last year when he declared Richmond certainties to win by over 60 points against Hawthorn. He won enough to take my youngest brother too and probably enough to take me if he wanted too.

In case you missed it: Clarkey’s Quarterly Review Part One: Adelaide to Fremantle

Part two of the quarterly review. How will your team do?

GEELONG CATS

Somewhere in the cosmos; British Standards Institute computer programmers, the Mayans and Nostradamus are having a meeting. The consensus is, that while they may have all unsuccessfully predicted the end of the world at some point, they were never silly enough to foretell Geelong’s demise.

Despite key recruits Josh Caddy, Hamish McIntosh and Jared Rivers having minimal impact as well as Steve Johnson missing the opening rounds of the season – the Cats haven’t missed a beat in 2013. Harry Taylor has been huge, Taylor Hunt was stepping up prior to injury and Matthew Stokes is in career best form.

Lead by inspiration skipper Joel Selwood, Geelong were still hungry enough to get the better of the Hawks, Roos and Blues in games that could’ve gone either way in the opening three rounds. Since then, they have dispatched Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Richmond and Essendon with authority.

Despite the departures of key players in Ablett, Ottens and Scarlett in consecutive years – the Cats keep on keeping on.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

While it would’ve been folly to write off such a great team, even the most optimistic Cats supporters would be pleasantly surprised with their team’s undefeated start to the season. With their draw, 4-3 or 5-2 wouldn’t have been an outrageously disrespectful pre season prediction to this point.

With Collingwood (MCG), Port (AAMI), Gold Coast (Simonds), GWS (Skoda) Brisbane (Gabba) you’d be brave to say that the Cats couldn’t go through the next ‘quarter’ undefeated. At worst they’ll be 10-2 at the beginning of round 14.

With their old warhorses still dishing up quality, some key players to return as well as youngsters such as Christensen, Duncan, T Hunt, Motlop, Murdoch, Smedts and most recently Jackson Thurlow starting to have a consistent impact Geelong’s demise doesn’t look imminent.
 
 

GOLD COAST SUNS

After probably taking a backward step in 2012 the Gold Coast Suns have improved vastly in 2013. In their first two seasons in the competition the Suns won just three games in each, 7 rounds into 2013 and they’ve already equalled that feat.

Gary Ablett is still the undisputed champion player in the competition and Rory Thompson and Charlie Dixon are having breakout seasons. Harley Bennell has also picked up where he left off last season. Zac Smith is more of a presence than the 2012 model.

The Suns have been authoritative in pummelling GWS and Melbourne, were unlucky to fall short against the Lions and had an impressive comeback victory against the Saints in the opening round.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

While most pundits would’ve expected an improved performance from the Gold Coast in 2013 it would’ve been bold to expect a 3-4 start to the season. Less than 3 wins wouldn’t have been completely unexpected or unacceptable (a loss to GWS might’ve).

The Suns have a tough run over the next ‘quarter’ with the Bulldogs (Metricon), Hawthorn (MCG), Geelong (Simonds), North (Metricon) and Essendon (Etihad) to come – it’s hard to see Gold Coast racking up wins.

The Suns will be 3-9, 4-8 or 5-7 come round 14. No better.
 
 

GWS GIANTS

During 2012 the Giants exceeded most expectations by winning two games. The common thought was that if Gold Coast could only scrape 3 wins with Gary Ablett and a number of talented players in their prime – what hope did the Giants have with Callan Ward, a bunch of kids and a few old hacks?

GWS will be more competitive in 2013 but it may not translate into wins – percentage is a more accurate guide. While the odd thrashing such as the loss to Adelaide may still happen the magnitude of defeats should reduce over time.

Callan Ward has been the Giants’ best again, while Sam Reid’s form has been a pleasant surprise and Jeremy Cameron continues to have football lovers referring to him as the next Carey.

On the flipside; Tom Scully is still looking an expensive flop, Jon Patton’s ACL was devastating and Jon Giles is having a dose of the second year blues.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

Their bottom of the ladder status should come as a surprise to no one, nor their winless status. The only real opportunities for a sneaky chance of victory were against the Suns & Dees. The Suns’ midfield is simply too good for the Giants at this point in time and Melbourne should’ve always won at the MCG.

The Giants will lose to Hawthorn (MCG), West Coast (Skoda), Carlton (Etihad), Geelong (Skoda) as well as Port (Skoda) and will be 0-12 come round 14.
 
 

HAWTHORN HAWKS

The Hawks have just one blemish on their 2013 season; a loss to Geelong, which should come as no surprise to anyone as Hawthorn are the Cats’ bitches.

Buddy Franklin’s contract status hasn’t seemed to affect the team, however his personal form has taken a dip over recent weeks – although it isn’t quite at Travis Cloke circa 2012 levels just yet.

Sammy Mitchell just keeps on keeping on and Luke Hodge is having a stunning renaissance for a player who looked cooked at the end of 2012.

Losing Cyril Rioli to a hamstring injury was a cruel blow as he was having all the makings of a genuine break out year.

Ryan Schoenmakers ACL injury was also a tragedy for a much maligned young player who was beginning to finally find his feet at this level.

Overall, Hawthorn are looking in good shape and they are due to get some players back and they could well be on their way to avenging last year’s Grand Final loss.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

The problem with being a really good side is there is usually only one way to go. Most would’ve expected 6-1 or 7-0 start to the season for the Hawks.

Hawthorn has a golden run with the draw over the next few weeks which should go a long way to securing a top 4 finish, which is essential for any club’s hopes of premiership success.

With GWS (Aurora), Suns (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (Etihad) and West Coast (Etihad) to come the Hawks should cruise to a 10-2 record at the absolute worst by the end of the next ‘quarter’.
 
 

MELBOURNE DEMONS

Horrific is the word that best sums up Melbourne in 2013. While most pundits might’ve been sceptical about the Dees prospects – it was hard to imagine Melbourne being worse than they were in 2012.

Lo and behold the club has firmly secured its status as the AFL’s incompetence limbo champions.

To recap the Dees were smashed by Port, hung drawn quartered and burned alive by Essendon, blasted by the Eagles, belted by Brisbane’s teenagers, walked over by Carlton and vaporised by the Gold Coast.

Complete blushes were only saved by a 12 goal quarter against GWS but overall it has been ugly and surely the Giants would have to start favourites when they next meet.

The club is now faced with the unthinkable prospect of axing a coach in the second year of his contract; the club can’t afford to sack Neeld and can’t afford to keep him on for a multitude of reasons.

The only shining lights this season have been Michael Evans, Colin Garland, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe, Matt Jones, Nathan Jones and Dean Terlich – but how many of them would be anything but fringe/role players at better clubs? It’s a hopeless mess.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

1-6 was just about the worst possible outcome when assessing the Demons’ prospects to this point of the season before AFL 2013’s first bounce.

With Richmond (MCG), Freo (Subi), Hawthorn (MCG), Pies (MCG) and Saints (MCG) to come there are no wins on the horizon for the MFC. The only ‘snowflakes chance in hell’ is against the Saints in round 13 – but St Kilda play honest footy and play for their coach which is enough to beat Melbourne by 8-12 goals at the moment.

Melbourne will be 1-11 after the next ‘quarter’.

NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS

The Roos have begun to slowly turn around their fortunes after a luckless start to 2013. North had their chances against Collingwood, should’ve beaten Geelong and could’ve beaten Hawthorn. The only genuinely poor performance for the season was the third quarter against Sydney in round 3.

Andrew Swallow has been terrific, Scott Thompson has looked in All-Australian form at full back, Todd Goldstein is back in form and Lindsay Thomas is having a career best season. Majak Daw is providing some real x-factor up forward an is a genuinely exciting prospect.

With Daniel Wells and Brent Harvey yet to hit peak form as well as scope for improvement in the likes of Ben Cunnington, Kieran Harper, Jordan Gysberts and Ben Jacobs – things are looking up for the Roos.

It is important for North to now get some wins on the board to push for the finals as being an honourable 9^th is little consolation to restless fans, see: Tigers, Richmond.

Forecasting to the end of Round 13

While they have been good 3-4 is probably where most of us would’ve had North at this stage of the season. Playing three of last year’s top 4 teams plus the Cats was never going to be easy – to their credit North have notably closed the gap between themselves and the competition’s upper echelon.

As stated above North now have to translate some of these good performances into wins. With West Coast (Subi), Adelaide (Etihad), St Kilda (Etihad), Gold Coast (Metricon) and Fremantle (Subi) coming up – the Roos will be backing themselves to win 4 of those matches. At worst they’ll win 3.

It’s budget week and with the 7^th round completed of the 28 week AFL season; what better time to reflect on how your club has fared in 2013?

ADELAIDE CROWS

Adelaide have endured a disappointing opening stanza to the 2013 season. In hindsight with Kurt Tiprat’s Tippett’s departure, a tougher draw and increased opposition attention, this year always loomed as a bit of a banana peel for the Crows. However, for a team that was a whisker away from a Grand Final appearance less than 8 months ago, a 3-4 record is lacklustre.

Up until his season ending knee injury, Taylor Walker struggled; this has also been compounded by the poor form of Jason Porplyzia. The ‘crisurtunity’ caused by the Mullet’s absence will give the likes of Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Lewis Johnston and Tom Lynch (who made an excellent start against the Giants) the chance to nail down a key forward role.

The backline has offered no rebound out of defence, they desperately need players such as Matthew Jaensch, Jared Petrenko or Bernie Vince to be cutting opposition teams up from half back – all have been fringe players this year and are at a crossroads in their respective careers.

Finally, Sam ‘Sauce’ Jacobs has looked a shadow of the dominant ruckman he was in 2012 and it’s actually making Angus Graham look a viable alternative.

Forecasting to end of Round 13

The losses to Essendon and Port were a shock; the Crows would’ve been budgeting for a 5-2 or 4-3 record at the beginning of the season. However, there is room for improvement – the likes of Callinan, Douglas, Jaensch, Porplyzia and Vince need to start playing like role players rather than fringe dwellers. As mentioned above, Sam Jacobs is also a far better player than what he is dishing up at present. Ultimately, the loss of Walker has ended any faint premiership hopes. Finals are still a possibility.

Over the next ‘quarter’ season they face St Kilda (AAMI), North (Etihad), Fremantle (AAMI), Sydney (AAMI) & Richmond (MCG). Sadly for Crows fans there’s a fair chance they’ll be 4-8 come round 13.

BRISBANE LIONS

In 2013 the Lions seem to be channeling the Carlton teams of the mid 2000’s. Dominant in the pre season and deplorable when the real stuff rolls around. For a team expected to make real strides this year and push towards the top eight, their performance has been – a narrow win against Gold Coast and an effective bye against an awful Melbourne – short of a complete disaster. They’ve been flayed by the Dogs, brushed aside by the Crows, crushed by North, thumped by the Swans and knocked out by the Eagles.

They have had injury worries but the sheer magnitude of the defeats against any decent opposition, the over reliance on Jonathan Brown up forward and Simon Black as the creative architect in the midfield are obvious problems for Michael Voss in his fifth year as coach.

Forecasting to end of Round 13

The upshot is that they still have Daniel Rich to come back and Simon Black is yet to return to full fitness as well as the fact that they have played four of last year’s finalists in the opening 7 rounds (not to mention they get to play the awful GWS at home and get another bye against Melbourne).

However, they would have expected to knock over the Bulldogs in round 1 and would’ve hoped for at least one win against either Adelaide or West Coast at home. After their strong pre season form, most would’ve expected to see the Lions batting at 3-4 or 4-3 rather than their paltry 2-5 record.

With Essendon (Etihad), Carlton (Gabba), Collingwood (Gabba), Fremantle (Subi) and Geelong (Gabba) to come in the next ‘quarter’, an optimist might see them winning a game. I don’t. They’ll be 2-10 come round 13.

CARLTON BLUES

The overuse of the word “process” by Mick Malthouse has been one of the more annoying soundbites of 2013. But truth be told the Blues haven’t been too bad this year.

Whilst a 3-4 record is hardly world beating stuff, Carlton was competitive in their first three losses against good opposition and were brave after being cruelled by injury in their loss to St Kilda.

They appear to be a better drilled team under Malthouse and are learning to work hard both ways. They have also managed to dispatch average opposition with relative ease.

The improvement in the all round games of Armfield, McLean and Walker has been noticeable and it is important for this middle tier to improve quickly en masse to somewhat negate the effect of Chris Judd’s rapidly fading powers.

Forecasting to end of  Round 13

In 2010 Mick Malthouse guided Collingwood to a flag with disciplined structures carried out critical mass of good to very good players creating depth in spades.

Carlton’s success will ultimately depend on the likes of Betts, Garlett Gibbs, Judd, Kruezer, Murphy, Waite, Walker and Yarran playing to their ultimate potential as well as Armfield, Carrazzo, Hampson, Henderson, Jamison, Lucas, McLean, Robinson, Scotland, Simpson, Touhy, Warnock playing their roles well.

With Port (Etihad), Brisbane (Gabba), GWS (Etihad), Essendon (MCG) & Hawthorn (Etihad) coming up the Blues should be at least 6-6 after the next ‘quarter’.

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES

If Brisbane is channeling Carlton of the mid 2000’s, Collingwood are channeling Hawthorn of 2009/10 – talent isn’t really the issue, motivation and fitness is. The Pies look a shadow of the team that lost just 7 out of 51 games in 2010/11.

The most bizarre thing about it is that the individual performances of the key midfielders namely Pendlebury, Swan, Beams (2012) and Sidebottom have been as good as or better than during the Pies’ days of domination.

However, as a collective the manic pressure that was characteristic of the Pies during the final years of Malthouse’s tenure has been missing. Opposition teams have scored more heavily against the Pies as a consequence.

It doesn’t help that Luke Ball, Darren Jolly and Nick Maxwell have missed important chunks of seasons with injuries. Nor does it help that Harry O’Brien, Ben Reid and Dale Thomas haven’t been able to consistently reproduce their 10/11 form. The Pies have also struggled to develop immediate replacements for the X-factor that Alan Didak and Leon Davis brought to the team in 2010/11.

The losses to Essendon, Fremantle & Hawthorn were generally uncompetitive and un-Collingwood like and the natives are restless.

Forecasting to end of Round 13

With three games against 2012 finalists and one road trip in the first 7 rounds the Pies would’ve hoped for better than a 4-3 start to the season.

With Nick Maxwell, Luke Ball and Dayne Beams to come back into the team, Collingwood will be hoping for an improved output.

With Geelong (MCG), Sydney (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Bulldogs (Etihad) and Port (AAMI) coming up – Collingwood should be 7-5 or better at the end of the next ‘quarter’.

ESSENDON BOMBERS

Horrible season off the field, excellent season on it – it’s the curious case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Peptide. For all the chaos surrounding the club, the players have reacted wonderfully well, waltzing to a 6-1 record.

Even the most optimistic Essendon supporter would’ve been cautious to predict the club’s victories over Adelaide, Fremantle and Collingwood.

The addition of Brendon Goddard as well as the further development of Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis has given the Bombers a much needed injection (nyuck nyuck nyuck) of class through the midfield and half back.

Michael Hibberd, Jake Carlisle and Tom Bellchambers are enjoying break out seasons and with the skipper consistent as ever the Bombers have shot up (nyuck nyuck nyuck) in most pundits’ premiership estimations.

Forecasting to end of Round 13

As stated earlier, the wins against Adelaide, Collingwood and Fremantle were very unexpected pre season.

You also wouldn’t have been completely insane in the pre season to think that Melbourne might’ve had a sneaky chance in round 2 given the Bombers were their bogey side.

Wins against the sliding Saints and the horrible Giants at Etihad would’ve been a minimum expectation internally, but externally most would’ve had the Bombers at 1-6, 2-5 or 3-4 at this stage of the season.

With Brisbane (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Carlton (MCG) and Gold Coast (Etihad) coming up, there are a couple of banana peel games thrown in there for the Dons. This second stanza of 2013 could make or break their top 4 chances but at their 6-1 form the Bombers should be 10-2 by the end of the next ‘quarter’.

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

Considering that Pavlich and Sandilands have missed most of the season, the Dockers are tracking wonderfully well at 5-2, not to mention they had the Bombers beaten at half time in Round 3.

Ross Lyon has brought structure and most importantly confidence to Freo. In 2010, under Mark Harvey, the Dockers took a skeleton side to Launceston and were soundly thumped by Hawthorn – in 2009 the Saints did the same thing under Lyon and beat the Hawks. That’s a credit to Lyon coached teams, not a knock on Harvey, as most clubs would’ve experienced similar outcomes given the same personnel input.

Fyfe, Hill, Mundy, McPharlin, Pavlich and Sandilands when fit make up Freo’s star core, the rest of the team is generally rounded out by good to average role players in Ballantyne, Barlow, Bradley, Crowley, Dawson, Deboer, Duffield, Griffin, Ibbotson, Johnson, Mayne, Mzungu, Pearce x2, Spurr, Suban and Walters – Lyon is maximising their output.

Forecasting to end of Round 13

Freo have had their fair share of injury woes: Sandilands is forever absent, Pavlich was underdone and is now injured, McPharlin and Fyfe have missed intermittently and now Bradley as well as Griffin are gone with season ending knee injuries. However, channeling Monty Python’s Black Knight and Robert Patrick in Terminator 2, Lyon’s Dockers just keep on keeping on in the face of seemingly hopeless odds.

So far they’ve easily beaten the Eagles, Bulldogs, Suns and Pies along with a narrow win over Richmond. 3-4 wouldn’t have been a bad start for Freo, 5-2 is excellent.

The Dockers face Sydney (SCG), Melbourne (Home), Adelaide (AAMI), Brisbane (Home) and North (Home) during the next ‘quarter’. They should win at least 4 out of those 5 games to be 9-3 come round 14.