HAWTHORN v WEST COAST
Friday 21 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

Hawthorn
B: Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Brent Guerra
HB: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Luke Hodge
C: Shane Savage, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
HF: Paul Puopolo, Lance Franklin, Jordan Lewis
F: David Hale, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
Foll: Max Bailey, Brad Sewell, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Liam Shiels, Taylor Duryea, Jack Gunston, Jonathan Simpkin
Emerg: Kyle Cheney, Xavier Ellis, Matt Spangher

In: S.Savage
Out: I.Smith (corked calf)

West Coast
B: Sam Butler, Darren Glass, Mitchell Brown
HB: Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Beau Waters
C: Andrew Gaff, Scott Selwood, Andrew Embley
HF: Luke Shuey, Josh Kennedy, Chris Masten
F: Mark LeCras, Dean Cox, Jack Darling
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Matt Priddis, Daniel Kerr
Int: Blayne Wilson, Patrick McGinnity, Bradd Dalziell, Matt Rosa
Emerg: Brad Sheppard, Ashley Smith, Jacob Brennan

In: D.Glass, B.Waters, M.LeCras, J.Kennedy, B.Dalziell, P.McGinnity
Out: A.Selwood (back), J.Hill (hamstring), A.Hams, J.Brennan, B.Sheppard, J.Cripps

PORT ADELAIDE v SYDNEY
Saturday 22 June, 1:10pm, AAMI Stadium

Port Adelaide
B: Matthew Broadbent, Alipate Carlile, Jack Hombsch
HB: Cameron O’Shea, Thomas Jonas, Tom Logan
C: Matt Thomas, Brad Ebert, Kane Cornes
HF: Robbie Gray, Justin Westhoff, Paul Stewart
F: Jake Neade, Jay Schulz, Angus Monfries
Foll: Matthew Lobbe, Chad Wingard, Hamish Hartlett
Int: Oliver Wines, Jasper Pittard, John Butcher, Domenic Cassisi
Emerg: Nathan Blee, Andrew Moore, Campbell Heath

In: D.Cassisi, J.Pittard
Out: T.Boak (finger), C.Hitchcock (ankle)

Sydney
B: Tony Armstrong, Ted Richards, Dane Rampe
HB: Nick Smith, Heath Grundy, Nick Malceski
C: Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh
HF: Luke Parker, Kurt Tippett, Craig Bird
F: Jude Bolton, Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn
Foll: Mike Pyke, Ryan O’Keefe, Kieren Jack
Int: Tom Mitchell, Jed Lamb, Jesse White, Mitch Morton
Emerg: Tim Membrey, Brandon Jack, Xavier Richards

In: T.Armstrong, K.Tippett, J.Lamb
Out: A.Everitt (Achilles), S.Mumford (cheekbone), B.Jack

ST KILDA v MELBOURNE
Saturday 22 June, 4:40pm, MCG

St Kilda
B: Rhys Stanley, James Gwilt, Dylan Roberton
HB: Jarryn Geary, Sam Fisher, Jack Newnes
C: David Armitage, Sean Dempster, Terry Milera
HF: Nick Dal Santo, Justin Koschitzke, Clinton Jones
F: Trent Dennis-Lane, Nick Riewoldt, Jack Steven
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Farren Ray, Leigh Montagna
Int: Jimmy Webster, Tom Simpkin, Sam Dunell, Sebastian Ross
Emerg: Arryn Siposs, Brodie Murdoch, Ahmed Saad

In: J.Koschitzke, S.Fisher, T.Milera, T.Simpkin
Out: S.Milne, B.Maister (hamstring), A.Saad, J.Saunders

Melbourne
B: Lynden Dunn, Colin Garland, Dean Terlich
HB: Tom McDonald, Cam Pedersen, Mitchell Clisby
C: Jeremy Howe, Jack Trengove, Matt Jones
HF: Aaron Davey, Chris Dawes, Sam Blease
F: Shannon Byrnes, Colin Sylvia, David Rodan
Foll: Jake Spencer, Jack Watts, Nathan Jones
Int: Dean Kent, Jack Fitzpatrick, Daniel Nicholson, Jimmy Toumpas
Emerg: James Sellar, Max Gawn, James Magner

In: S.Byrnes, M.Clisby, J.Spencer, D.Nicholson
Out: M.Jamar (toe), J.McKenzie (elbow), M.Evans (foot), L.Tapscott

WESTERN BULLDOGS v RICHMOND
Saturday 22 June, 7:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Jason Johannisen
HB: Dale Morris, Michael Talia, Robert Murphy
C: Jack Macrae, Nick Lower, Adam Cooney
HF: Daniel Giansiracusa, Liam Jones, Matthew Boyd
F: Luke Dahlhaus, Lukas Markovic, Clay Smith
Foll: Will Minson, Ryan Griffen, Tom Liberatore
Int: Liam Picken, Jake Stringer, Nathan Hrovat, Lachie Hunter
Emerg: Dylan Addison, Mitch Wallis, Jarrad Grant

In: N.Hrovat, L.Hunter
Out: D.Addison, K.Stevens (shoulder)

Richmond
B: Steven Morris, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
HB: Chris Newman, Troy Chaplin, Nick Vlastuin
C: Shaun Grigg, Trent Cotchin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Aaron Edwards, Shane Edwards, Jake King
F: Ty Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
Foll: Ivan Maric, Brett Deledio, Nathan Foley
Int: Matt White, Brandon Ellis, Reece Conca, David Astbury
Emerg: Jake Batchelor, Matt Dea, Sam Lonergan

FREMANTLE v NORTH MELBOURNE
Sunday 23 June, 1:20pm, Patersons Stadium

Fremantle

In: M.Walters , T.Sheridan , M.Taberner
Out: -

North Melbourne

In: L.Anthony, L.Delaney, L.Greenwood, B.Jacobs, B.McKenzie
Out: S.McMahon (ankle), W.Sierakowski

BRISBANE LIONS v GEELONG
Sunday 23 June, 4:40pm, Gabba

Brisbane

In: J.Brown, D.Merrett, B.Moloney, J.Polkinghorne
Out: N.McKeever

Geelong

In: H.Taylor, T.Hunt, S.Motlop, J.Caddy, M.Blicavs
Out: T.West (back), M.Brown

BYES: Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon

It’s been a West Coast season to date that resembles a Pro Hart Spaghetti Special, their 4-1 Interstate record compared to their 2-4 record in Perth looks like a glitch in the Matrix, the pantsing at the hands of Richmond after a five game winning streak brought on thoughts of the apocalypse and losing four games this season despite being ahead at quarter time could only result in unnecessary fawning from the folk down at Arden Street. No matter which way you cut it, West Coast has issues.

As for the Hawks it’s been business as usual. Hawthorn sits top of the ladder, has won ten straight, has a league leading time in front percentage of 80% and an average winning margin of forty-one points.

Look at them with their nonchalant brilliance. What a pack of impressive bastards.

Despite losing Ryan Schoenmakers and Matt Suckling for the season, and Cyril Rioli for an extended period of time, health has been quite kind to the Hawks who have used just 30 players this season, the second fewest amount behind only Fremantle. Hawthorn is one of six teams in double digits for players who have played every game, so they’ve had a fair chunk of their primary core on the field week to week as they build towards their premiership tilt.

Hawthorn Key Indicators

Another year of Hawthorn contending bring about another season of Hawthorn’s high possession brand of football. The Hawks unique skill based style has had more success during the home and away rounds than it has in September but that doesn’t warrant a complete overhaul of the system, not when you’re coming as close as the Hawks did in 2012 and not when on average this season you’re sending out a team who (behind only Sydney) has an average age eight months older than the next ranked side. This Hawthorn outfit is experienced, disciplined, function like a well-oiled machine in all of the necessary areas and most importantly is super-efficient when venturing inside 50.

Hawthorn Rankings 2013

We know that Hawthorn love to own the wealth of disposal and this season they sit second in the competition for time in possession differential compared to West Coast who is tenth. Where the Eagles may have success is restricting the Hawks ability to locate targets inside 50 as they currently allow the fewest opponent marks in that area although this is a Hawthorn side who scores at the second highest rate of efficiency of any side when kicking inside 50. When you look at the Eagles defensive output in the areas which are critical to Hawthorn concerns only deepen. West Coast is ordinary at restricting successful long kicks, limiting the effectiveness of disposal, forcing turnovers by foot and remaining resilient at ground level when opponents venture inside fifty.

West Coast Defensive Rankings 2013

West Coast Key Indicators

Like Hawthorn, the Eagles love to utilise the long ball to gain territory ranking sixth for long kicks, the only problem is from a skills perspective the two teams couldn’t be further apart. West Coast currently sits outside the top ten for effective kicks, kicking efficiency, handball effectiveness, total disposals, disposal efficiency, uncontested marks, the list goes on. It’s a far cry from the Eagles 2012 output which saw them functioning on the fringe of a legitimate premiership threat and warranted several pundits (myself included) circling them as their pick for the flag this year.

Hindsight is often ruthless and us Eagles backers have been made to look like clueless idiots but in our favour is a West Coast midfield output that looks more 2013 Melbourne than it does 2012 West Coast. How a team (especially an up and coming team) can fall from the highest of cliffs to this degree is perplexing to say the least. If your three areas of improvement from 2012 to 2013 are in three of the most obsolete areas of success in today’s game (contested possession, clearances and tackles) it’s safe to say you’re going to have a problem or ten.

The biggest knock on West Coast last season was the lack of bravado and toughness from their midfield ranks. Whether or not they’ve decided to sacrifice all that made them successful last year in an attempt to get fractionally more resolute at the coalface is tough to gauge, but the game is constantly changing and the correlation between winning first use and success is practically dead.

Has a new directive failed to click with the playing group or is it as simple as previously damaging players struggling with extra attention? (I miss that Andrew Gaff fella) It would take a much deeper analysis than this to pinpoint the exact issue(s) but at face value something has definitely gone wrong in the last eight months in what can only be described as an Amanda Bynes level of midfield meltdown;

West Coast Rankings 2012 v 2013

What’s most painful about the above is that West Coast has an incredibly talent forward line and is the most efficient side at scoring once inside 50, which of course offers little value when you’re accumulating the 13^th most inside 50s of any side.

Defensively Hawthorn remains impressive but they still have some concerns. If teams can win enough of the footy and maintain the pace the Hawks can be hurt and we saw Carlton do this exceptionally well for three quarters last week. Hawthorn currently ranks 15^th defensively for opponent kicking efficiency which is ahead of only Gold Coast, Melbourne and GWS. The Hawks have been able to get away with letting teams locate easy targets because they allow the third fewest kicks per game. Opponents use it well against Hawthorn, just not often enough.

If Hawthorn is to be vulnerable opposing teams are stuck with the tough task of having to win control of the football first and maintain possession. Listing why this is so hard to accomplish would require far too many words so we’ll let the following table do the explaining. Basically Hawthorn is very sound at limiting their opponent practically anywhere and far beyond the pedestrian categories listen below;

Hawthorn Defensive Rankings

The same can be said about the two teams when it comes to pressure ratings. The Eagles trusty back six has a veteran presence and has held firm all season long but the two midfields are at polar opposites. Likewise up forward, teams are simply strolling out of the Eagles defensive 50 which in part explains why West Coast has allowed the fourth most points from kick-ins this year.

Hawthorn and West Coast: Pressure Ratings

Scoring Sources

Like the majority of statistical indicators suggest there’s really only one primary difference between these two sides and that’s how their midfields operate. Obviously Hawthorn is far more superior from a talent perspective so it shouldn’t exactly come as a surprise that it’s reflected on the scoreboard.

Hawthorn attack via the corridor the second most of any side behind only Geelong with the difference being the Hawks have a greater balance and obtain more scores via stoppages as opposed to the Cats who counter heavily via turnovers. As a result Hawthorn is second in the competition for score launches via their midfield, the number one side for scores from stoppages differential and sit fourth for scores from turnover differential which makes for a seriously lethal combination.

Defensively West Coast is quite sound when it comes to limiting opportunities via the corridor ranking fifth in the AFL for fewest scores conceded but that is where any positive vibes end.  As a midfield the Eagles are quite easy to score against with West Coast allowing the tenth most scores from stoppages and eighth most score launches from midfield. Hawthorn should have little trouble impacting the scoreboard given this particular West Coast midfield has historically beaten up on only inexperienced and unaccountable opponents.

As for West Coast’s scoring punch they rank tenth for scores via the corridor and aren’t anywhere near as bullish at stoppages or direct as the Hawks. The Eagles sit 11^th for scores from stoppages and fifth for scores via turnovers but given Hawthorn’s supreme use it would be logical to assume turnovers will be at a minimum. The Chances of the Eagles scoring quickly and heavily Friday night should be quite limited given Hawthorn is top five defensively in every scoring indicator that is tracked.

West Coast Scoring Source Differentials – Wins

West Coast Scoring Source Differentials – Losses

Who Will Win and Why?

The game being played in the smaller confines of Etihad will help but it’s tough to find anything that suggests the Eagles midfield is capable of doing enough defensively to impact Hawthorn.

There’s always plenty of talk regarding West Coast’s heavy ruck advantage and the statistical disparities are quite telling in this specific match up at face value. Unfortunately for Eagles fans that statement couldn’t be any further from the truth thanks to West Coast’s incredible ability to waste what can only be described as a significant advantage. Just look at these ruck related statistics;

Hawthorn and West Coast Hitout Differentials;

Not only is West Coast smashing all comers in the ruck (and rightly so) they’re essentially turning it into an advantage for their opposition at the same time.  It’s quite remarkable and really makes you think about the true value of the position. It also further underlines the value of athletic types such as Geelong’s Mark Blicavs who are becoming worth their weight in gold.

One of the main issues pointing to the above ruck issue for the Eagles is their lack of variety regarding stoppage personnel. West Coast has seven players with over one hundred centre square involvements this season: Matt Priddis, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey, Dean Cox, Chris Masten, Daniel Kerr and Nic Naitanui with no other player breaking through the fifty plus involvement threshold. First year player Callum Sinclair is the closest with forty-seven involvements. Surely that minimal rotation would see players fatiguing quite early?

By comparison Hawthorn has Jordan Lewis, Max Bailey, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, David Hale and Shaun Burgoyne as their primary unit with at least one hundred involvements, whilst Luke Hodge, Liam Shiels, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Bruest, Paul Puopolo and the currently injured Cyril Rioli all have over 50 involvements. Hawthorn has plenty of options and variety, West Coast has their core seven and little else. With the pace of today’s game rotating players through the midfield has become critical to most teams, it appears West Coast for whatever reason (injuries included) just doesn’t have the cattle at present.

In round two earlier this year Hawthorn totalled 54 points from stoppages, sourced 119 total points from their midfield, finished with a kicking efficiency of 71.4% and registered a goal from 37.1% of all entries inside 50. The Eagles do have a 5-3 record at Docklands since 2001 so I doubt we see the same one-sided score line but there’s little to suggest this West Coast outfit will trouble Hawthorn.

Tip: Hawthorn by 28 points

You can follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

So how did we all go in Round 12? Did your team surprise you and put up a strong performance? post a healthy score in the face of adversity? ..or did you beat an old friend in a league matchup with the aid of a cheap late withdrawal in the last game of the round to be gifted the win?… *shifty eyes*

Here was my congratulatory message from eebz, by the way..

Anyhow, here’s how my team travelled. Ranking slipped expectedly but I managed to stay within the top 1000, which was nice. I don’t expect to still be in there after this week though..

What a week last week was at the trade-table! I don’t think I’ve ever been so undecided on my trades! My head was spinning by Friday afternoon, but thanks to some quality suggestions and discussion from the ever-giving FT community, I made the call to bring in my trusty old workhorse, Matty Boyd, for which I was dutifully rewarded for. Thanks Boydy, I knew I could count on you to deny the curse for another week!

Speaking of the curse; I noticed a couple of interesting revelations over the weekend that I’m sure have some sort of ‘Post-Wilson Curse’ relevance. David Mundy, who I ousted in the first week of the byes due to his lackluster output, was clearly upset by this decision and decided to go all “2011 Mundy” on me, knocking out a team high 124 against the Lions. Also, Jordan Lewis, who came in in Round 10, decided that he’d have a post-curse week hangover and kick me where it hurts for 57 measly points against the Blues, his lowest score of the year. So just some food for thought there, but some interesting incidents nonetheless. Curse related? Monitor closely.

So, here we are, this is the daunting one guys, some heavy-hitters sitting out for this Round as you’re well aware. No Ablett, no Swan, No Pendlebury, etc. the DT-Apocalypse in a sense.

ADELAIDE, CARLTON, COLLINGWOOD, ESSENDON,

GOLD COAST, GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

Booo! Fair to assume that I won’t be the only one to field a scarily depleted side this week? In which case, it’ll be the bare minimum 18 starters for me, pending Thursday teams, and that’s WITH completing 2 trades. Not pretty.

Ok. I’ll let you all in on a little secret. I’ve had my eye on one particular guy to bring in this week who I think could be the goods. Flying under the radar and with very little fanfare is the unassuming Swans youngster, Tom Mitchell.

I know, I know.. I can hear all of your scoffed remarks and jeers now – “Wilson, you’re insane!”, “this guy isn’t worth a second-thought”, yadda, yadda.. but I think I could be onto something with him, and I strongly suggest you consider tra…. ok I’m done.

No brainer for me this week, and I assume everyone, has to be Mitchell, with Kommer or O’Meara the likely pair to make way my end. This gives me room for an upgrade in any position with my current bank balance of $47k before trades. At this stage I’m focusing on my defence to sure up that area, though I haven’t ruled out a forward upgrade, either.

Down back, I like Enright first and foremost for consistency, though the likes of Ibbotson, Ellis, Malceski and just to be different – Bachar Houli (do yourself a favour and have a look at his numbers this year) all seem like legitimate options. Though getting Gibbs back into my side will be paramount next week, so bringing one of the above guys in may not be an imperative option as opposed to others yet, but we’ll see. So with the ongoing indecision as whether to hold or fold O’Meara, I am considering moving on Macaffer for an Enright-type (through switching Staker) who has been more than serviceable. This enables me to hold Jaeger for another week and make a decision on him next week instead at no price fluctuation this week. That move looks like this.

This decision is also made harder by the fact that I had slated Macaffer as my permanent forward bench cover of late, so if I get too sentimental with Caff and/or Jaeger, then who else?

Scotland has been underwhelming and is clearly not the ultra-consistent premium defender he’s been of the past several years, so he could also be a candidate, though once I complete my backline he could be handy cover to swing through my midfield if needed as well. Gut feel is he stays for now for that reason, though I can be swayed. ;)

Onto forwards, and the 3 clear standout options would have to be Nick Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Rockliff for mine. I have had trouble splitting these guys for the last few days though am tending to lean more toward Voldt and Rocky (note: I traded Rocky after his injury) purely as Dusty has burnt me massively the last couple of years, and petty grudges unfortunately do hold stead in lieu of Fantasy decisions.. you all know they do, ha! Rocky still has a high breakeven to consider as well, so I could wait another week or so on him perhaps? Anyway, I think either one of these guys should be extremely solid for the run home and easily finish as top 5-7 forward premiums, though Rocky and Dusty are obviously DPP’s. So once again, I can turn Macaffer or O’Meara into either one of the above guys with a midfield switch, and that’s with Kommer to Mitchell already done. That’ll look like this.

With a look to Round 14, I envisage the likes of Staker, Rowe, Blicavs and Naismith all to be up on the chopping block for upgrade purposes. Rowe and Naismith are are largely useless to me with limited to zero game time. (Macaffer and O’Meara’s fate both pending this weeks decisions)

Also, with the next few weeks to be focused on finalising our teams, I figure these upcoming trade decisions will be some of the most pivotal of our seasons to date. At this point we’ve had a fair chunk of the year to gauge form, roles, upcoming fixtures, etc and to who we think will be finishing in the top 5-10 overall scorers per their respective positions. So the time for ‘experimenting’ with mid-pricers and risky unique types should be behind you as you look to strengthen every position with top-line premiums.

Let me know if you think I’m on the right track below and fire me any thoughts you might have, as last weeks were all brilliant – thanks again guys!

Neeld is gone. He deserved to go for a multitude of reasons not least because his team was getting ritually gubbed by 80+ points per game. While Neeld was a problem it would be folly to think he was the whole problem. Ultimately the Demons have been a club dictated by personality and a messiah/villain complex.

At different times during their tenure individuals such as Ron Barrassi, Joe Gutnick, Jim Stynes, Garry Lyon, Jack Watts, even Mark Neeld and now Peter Jackson have been lauded as saviours of the club. On the other side of the coin Neale Daniher, Cameron Schwab, Craig Cameron, Gabriel Szondy, Dean Bailey, Chris Connolly, Barry Prendergast, Don McLardy, Garry Lyon (as kingmaker) and Mark Neeld are known enemies of the state. The truth is that Melbourne’s awful state has been a collective effort and it will take a collective effort to pull itself out of the muck.

The biggest worry is that its reactive and knee jerk culture will continue to put all of its faith/blame in individuals. Paul Roos has an outstanding record as coach but is it worth rolling up to his front door with a sack full of cash and blind faith when the whole playing list is pox and under developed? Is Roos good enough to make strawberry jam out of shit? Is anybody?

Likewise Peter Jackson also has an impressive track record however it is slightly worrying that he seems to be the one man decision maker/saviour for the club. Indeed every article about the Demons’ plight mentions him no less than 50 times. Thankfully he has extended his tenure til the end of 2014 but it would be folly to expect that the Demons will be fixed by then. Is it really wise to have one man making very important long term decisions when his own tenure is short to medium term? It seems like Garry Lyon in another form…

The club is at a critical juncture in its history. It cannot afford to rule out any options in its new round of key appointments. Even if that means that a Hawthorn supporter becomes president or another untried coach assumes the big chair. Members deserve the best people for the position no matter the name.

The club also needs to stop treating its people like shit and find some unity and stability. Over the past 12 years the club has had 6 Chairmen, 8 CEO’s and 6 coaches (since 2007) for a supposedly soft club its axemen are perpetually busy. A massive portion of its pre 2009 debt was due to high staff turnover. The club’s treatment of its own players as bartered livestock over the past 6 seasons is well documented.

Rather than spinning false hope and spamming up members inboxes with discount car hire offers, perhaps the club’s admin should beg members forgiveness for the crap that has unfolded over the past 7 seasons and make supporters feel more valued.

Currently Melbourne is a divided club, ruined by the cult of personality. It is going to take a mighty administrative team, a good on field team and coaching panel to begin to turn it around. It will also need to slowly build a culture of trust, belief and healthy relationships with its players, staff and supporters alike. Because at the moment it’s still on the road to nowhere.

Some weekends this year fill me with vitriol (see last week), and others just fill me with resignation. Perhaps it’s to do with my lacklustre Dream Team, or the insipid actual team I support, but I’m tired. Still love the football, just having to find new aspects of the game to care about.

Adelaide (defeated by Richmond)

The Buzz

Patrick Dangerfield – This tweet pretty much summed up my entire feeling on the Adelaide game. Dangerfield again stood alone, and appeared to be everywhere in the first half…or perhaps it’s that the rest of his squad were nowhere. The only blight on his game was his inaccurate kicking for goal, but he wasn’t Robinson Crusoe there (see Sunday morning’s musings from Scotty)

Buzzkill

Bernie Vince – It is so frustrating to watch a player like Bernie Vince squander the talent he has been so obviously blessed with. There are times that we see glimpses of his potential, but of late we have too often seen the impetuous, ill-disciplined, immature and inconsistent version of number 17. It must stop.

Nathan van Berlo – He tries his best…he really does. I’m sure he provides significant leadership around the club, but it’s not the sort of on-field leadership the fans understand – you know the type of ‘leadership’ that takes the game by the scruff of the neck and tears it apart (Hodge, Swallow, Selwood…). VB is not that guy, and add to that the fact the he looks old (he’s not)? I worry about him.

Brisbane (defeated by Fremantle)

The Buzz

Sam Mayes started the game slowly, but really worked into it well in the second half, working up hard onto the wing to provide a good link target. As he has displayed many times this year, this skill really helps him pull in large numbers of marks (something I enjoy for my UF category league!). He looks confident on the field and will only get better. If you still have him, it could be worth keeping him as at least an emergency for a few weeks.

Matthew Leuenberger returned to the side, and whilst many were skeptical of him actually take to the field, not only did he play, but he played well. He competed well around the ground, although did struggle a bit with his time up forward. That’s not too much of a worry as I’m sure those who kept him would have been pumped with his timely return, as well as his score – one of his best so far this year.

Buzzkill

Brent Staker would have been on everyone’s field this week thanks to the byes, but he was unfortunately deployed deep in defense for the entire game, meaning he only managed the 11 touches.

Pearce Hanley (although this could also be Vossy as the buzzkill) was surprisingly stationed in the forward line for the majority of the first half, effectively killing and chance of a decent score. When he did get his hands on the ball he used it well, but the Lions really missed his drive and creativity off half-back. Therefore I have no idea what Vossy was thinking putting him up forward… just bizarre.

Carlton (defeated by Hawthorn)

The Buzz

Bryce Gibbs – As Carlton disintegrated, it’s astonishing to look at the numbers of a couple of the performers at Carlton’s top end. Gibbs was influential in the first half and has now strung together a number of tremendous matches – this match netted him 28 touches, 8 tackles and 123 DT points. He is still below his starting price, and is a good upgrade for the run home.

Buzzkill

Marc Murphy – I wonder if it’s too soon to label the skipper ‘much-maligned?’ In any case, Murphy viciously head butted Luke Hodge’s shoulder, and came away with a fractured cheekbone. Carlton’s medical staff suggest he will miss up to a month, added to the 7 weeks he missed last season for a collision with Patrick Dangerfield. If you’d decided he was a premium mid in your squad this year, it might be time to let him go.

Kane Lucas – Mick Malthouse’s baffling Sub policy aside (a policy that has seen the likes of Chris Yarran and Brock McLean used in the role this year), you would have expected Lucas to come on and have a fair crack after his Skipper went down early. It’s fair to say that he could use some time in the VFL on exposed form, and although I don’t think it will garner the improvement he needs with his foot skills, it may give him some confidence.

Collingwood

The Buzz

Dane Swan – Order has been restored in Magpieland, with Dane Swan back to his ball-winning, cheap possession getting best, playing through the middle. He’s owned by a significant number of teams, as you’d expect, but if you don’t have him, it would be ideal to find a way to get him in after his round 13 bye.

Travis Cloke – Is clearly one of the most important (if not the most important) cog in the Magpie forward line. He took 8 marks inside 50, which made for a tough day for Jordan Roughead, given the lack of defensive pressure applied by the Bulldogs midfield. Scoring 5 goals, it’s pertinent to note that (fantasy wise) when Cloke scores big, he definitely scores BIG.

Buzzkill

Ben Reid – Was subbed off in the third quarter with a corked hamstring. If he were to miss any time, it would not be unreasonable that this may impact the time that someone like Harry O’Brien can spend on the wing.

Luke Ball – His late withdrawal pretty much cost me my match against Wilson. Bitter? Me? Absolutely.

Essendon (defeated Gold Coast)

The Buzz

Brendon Goddard was awesome for the Dons, picking up a huge 38 disposals, 12 marks and a goal. This was clearly his best game in the red and black. He played mainly across half back, but swept through the midfield when needed, using his foot-skills beautifully to drive the ball forward. Whilst he’s not quite the midfielder they wanted him to be when the poached him, I still reckon he adds an extra element of danger to their list.

Paddy Ryder was great in the ruck, taking advantage of the inexperienced Suns’ duo. He worked off them really well, sneaking forward for 2 goals, whilst also picking up 18 touches in a very attacking role. His own defensive side was non-existent, but we’ll leave it for his actual coach to tell him off about those things…

Buzzkill

Michael Hurley really struggled again all game, consistently mistiming his leads, or being out-bodied in the contest (in fairness though, he was consistently double-teamed). Then, with 30-seconds left on the clock, he went down with another injury. He’s had a retched run with injury this year that just doesn’t look like letting up.

Fremantle (defeated Brisbane)

The Buzz

David Mundy was clear best-afield, running through the midfield like a rolls-royce; nothing ever appears an effort to him as he not only racks up the ball, but disposes of it beautifully too, as was displayed by the 17 slow-mo replays of him kicking for goal, which the foxtel commentary crew ogled over again and again and again… He finished with 27 touches, 6 marks, 5 tackles and 2.1.

Garrick Ibbotson has certainly stamped himself as a much-consider player in fantasy this year. His role off half-back is a thing of beauty when considering Dream Team – the Fremantle defenders play with the ball for as long as they need (kick, mark. Kick, mark. Etc…) before they go long to a target. This results in some huge scores from their back-half, with Ibbo the biggest beneficiary to date. He also doesn’t particularly hurt the opposition with his disposal, hence he is highly unlikely to be tagged.

Buzzkill

Paul Duffield seemed to be the one defender not joining in on the party as he was given the unfortunate task of manning Rockliff – one of Brisbane’s few damaging playmakers for the game. I used to have Duffy in my team every year, but at the end of last year I drew a line in the sand and said, “no more!” And games like this are the reason why.

Geelong – BYE

Gold Coast (defeated by Essendon)

The Buzz

Jaeger O’Meara was simply a joy to watch, dodging in and out of packs, beautiful foot skills, great pace… You can certainly tell he’s been watching his skipper closely at training. Many of us had planned on trading him this week ahead of his bye, but a game like this one is going to make that decision very very tough…

Gary Ablett (who you may remember from this column, every single other week this year), had another great performance, despite being ‘kept quiet’ by Heath Hocking. He still managed to rack up 36 touches and lay 7 tackles, working his way through packs to extract every point possible out of himself. Good on you Gary – we all love you for it.

Buzzkill

Tom Lynch started the game well with a real presence up forward, but an unfortunate collision with Melksham hurt his knee, forcing him to be subbed out. Initially it looked pretty bad, although the word out of the club since has inferred it may not be season-ending, which is certainly great news.

Greater Western Sydney (defeated by Port Adelaide)

The Buzz

Adam Tomlinson had a good game for the Giants, playing as a CHF and roaming up onto the wings, bringing in plenty (that would be 12) marks. His workrate was really impressive as he continually worked up the ground and back again, continually giving his defenders a strong tall option through the midfield. Unfortunately, he didn’t affect the scoreboard himself, but it was still an impressive game.

Toby Greene was again stationed in the backline, but this was definitely his best game in this role. As an owner of Greene in many draft leagues I have been pretty frustrated with this role, however if he continues to show form like against the Power, then I am not to adverse to it – he provides a good link option off half-back and with his love for a contest, is not afraid to take the game on. Also, my fingers are firmly crossed that he may become DEF eligible in Ultimate Footy in the coming weeks. Now that would make his slow season worthwhile!

Buzzkill

Jeremy Cameron had an extremely quiet first three quarters, hardly taking a mark and therefore not kicking a goal. Firstly, the Port defense did a great job double-teaming him, whilst the delivery to him was also far from first-class. Luckily for his owners, his last quarter produced some stats as he banged home a couple of consolation goals.

Hawthorn (defeated Carlton)

The Buzz

Jack Gunston – Is creeping a little to regularly on my radar for my liking. He, along with Franklin and Breust make for an incredibly threatening triple-threat forward line for the Hawks, especially when you consider the likes of Roughead and a returning Rioli who can also cycle through there. Fantasy-wise, Gunston may not yet be consistent enough to warrant a spot, but keep in mind he’s been more consistent than Franklin over the last 4…you could do worse.

Brian Lake – Could it be? The artist formerly known as Harris has experienced somewhat of a renaissance at a new home, in a manner that only the most optimistic of Hawthorn fan could have predicted….particularly after the demise of Suckling this year. He’s moving it well, and still taking his fair share of contested marks, finishing with 19 touches and 98 SuperCoach points.

Buzzkill

Isaac Smith – Can be a prolific ball winner on his day, and a zippy contributor all around the ground, but just could not manage to break free of his tag by Ed Curnow in this match. Will be better, but never really threatened.

Shaun Burgoyne – Is in my AFL Fantasy squad, so the poor bloke really doesn’t have much hope winning any ball this year. (the eebzzub curse perhaps?) A quiet night for the Junior Burger, but I’m certainly hoping he improves his output soon!

Melbourne – BYE

North Melbourne – BYE

Port Adelaide (defeated Greater Western Sydney)

The Buzz

Travis Boak had a great game for the Power, starting off in fine form with a couple of goals in the first quarter and double-digit disposals. The best thing was that he continued on with it too, finishing off 29 touches, 8 marks and 3 goals. When GWS had announced this game as their Grand Final, it was obvious from the outset that Port had no intent in making it a celebration for them, led well by their captain in Boak.

Cam O’Shea played one of the best games I have seen from him, floating loose across half-back and up into the midfield for bursts. I don’t believe he had an opponent all day, which certainly helped him pick off plenty of loose ball and run it forward. He finished with 30 disposals, whilst also dropping forward for 2 opportunistic goals. I can’t imagine this sort of score being the norm for him though as all of Port’s backline were having some sort of a ‘possession party’ against the lowly GWS.

Buzzkill

Robbie Gray started the game donning the green vest, which for me is a buzzkill from the outset. Why he was the sub, when a player such as Hitchcock started on the field just bemuses me. He did have a quiet week last week, but against a pretty inexperienced opponent this week, this could have been a good opportunity for him to get a run in the legs. Plus, I really could have done with a DT ton from him too!

Richmond (defeated Adelaide)

The Buzz

Dustin Martin – Forget the cries of ‘this kid could be anything.’ This kid is something special right now. He tore Adelaide apart early on and was relentless in accumulating 19 touches and 4 goals, one of which was as good a long bomb as you’ll see in the modern era.

Brett Deledio – The Crows again slipped into their nasty little habit of leaving one of most opposition’s most skilful player unchecked, allowing Deledio free reign in the first half before shifting Matthew Wright to mind him. It didn’t make much difference, however, as Deledio carved up the Crows with 28 super efficient touches.

Buzzkill

Aaron Edwards – Edwards struggled to find the ball in his second game for the club, and had little success curtailing the influence of his direct opponent. May win a reprieve due from the VFL to the result, but didn’t show a lot.

St Kilda – BYE

Sydney – BYE

West Coast – BYE

Western Bulldogs

The Buzz

Ryan Griffen -  Again stood out on what was a bleak day for the Bulldogs. Much like Dangerfield for Adelaide, there are times when he appears to be carrying his team this season, winning inside and outside ball.

Robert Murphy – Showed that he can still play some very good, efficient football. Worked largely up and down the wing, running off Harry O’Brien, but picked up 28 touches. It would be unreasonable to expect that sort of output from him every week, but he is clearly still capable of putting in a nice effort.

Buzzkill

Daniel Giansiracusa – Giansircausa is another veteran Dogs player who can still clearly play at a very high level, but it must be a concern to the Bulldogs that he is unable to run out matches. The Sub vest provides a solution, but it’s still not ideal.

How did you go? Did you survive the bye round? Let’s try this: Post your score (specify DT or SC), Buzz and Buzzkill below…

1: Brian Lake:

Plenty questioned the offseason acquisition of the former Bulldog but he’s taken like a duck to water in the Hawthorn back-six. Lake currently accumulates 15.7 disposals and 6.1 spoils per game whilst operating at a kicking efficiency of 84.1%. Of defenders with at least five games played Lake is leading the competition on a per game basis for marks from opposition kicks and more importantly concedes just one goal per game to his direct opponent.

Friday night Lake had arguably his best game for the Hawks totalling 19 disposals, 11 Intercept possessions, five marks from opposition kicks (four contested), five spoils (four effective) and three rebound 50s. It appears the man formally known as Harris simply required a change of scenery and renewed motivation. Hawthorn took the punt and they’re being heavily rewarded.

2: Joe Daniher:

Forget the surname from here on out and just go by “Joe”. We all know who commentators and the general public will be referring to. The one name tag often involves substantial risk but after the first half last night chances are the “Joe” career path will closely resemble a Madonna or Bono as opposed to Sinbad or Coolio, at least in AFL circles. Joe may have faded in the second half against the Suns but given it’s his second game a drop in production period was always to be expected.

As for the red hot first half Joe accumulated thirteen disposals at 92.3% efficiency, eight contested possessions, seven marks (five contested), two ground ball gets, two inside fifties and a goal assist whilst kicking three majors himself. It’s fair to say Joe has packed the bags and signalled the end of Scotty Gumbleton’s career at Essendon.

3: Garrick Ibbotson:

The Dockers love to move out of defence in a very safe and methodical manner, and there’s no more logical route than via the world’s most famous Garrick. Since returning in round five the 25 year old defender has been incredibly productive and against the Lions this week was simply superb. Ibbotson totalled 28 disposals with 20 of them kicks (19 effective) at a ludicrous video game efficiency of 96.4%. Reading that stat line the first thoughts are “stat padder” but Ibbotson worked hard for his touches accumulating 12 handball receives.

The value of Ibbotson is that he’s been hurting opponent both ways with three of his 11 marks coming via opposition kicks resulting in eight intercept possessions. Ibbotson also finished with nine score involvements against Brisbane, second for the Dockers behind only Clancee Pearce. He’s creeping into AA contention on my watch and will be close to a lock if this damaging form continues.

Hate

1: Adelaide’s Third Quarter:

Already 27 points down with their season on the line the Crows came out after half time with the intent required from a side hell bent on making a statement. Adelaide did everything right only they failed to put the return on the scoreboard kicking a grand total of zero goals from their first 11 inside 50s for the quarter, and would finish the quarter with 12 kicks inside 50s for zero marks. In fact, the Crows would finish the game with 46 kicks inside 50 but located a target just 6.5% of the time.

It was a wasteful effort on par with throwing a bucket of bath water on a buffet. The Crows dominated the third term yet lost the quarter thanks to an inaccurate 1.6 to Richmond’s 2.3.

Richmond v Adelaide: 3^rd Quarter Stats

2: Simon Black being Subbed out:

Social media exploded with hate for Michael Voss when Simon Black was thrown the vest in a milestone game. The only explanation that would make any sense is Voss spinning a wheel with a list of random coaching moves on it, and this time around it landed on “Sub Black”. Well, that or the former Brownlow Medallist was actually falling victim to physical fatigue. All the outrage, hate and insults may have been entertaining but they were misguided with Voss later stating that Blacky just didn’t have the legs;

“I’m not going to sub him out of the game in his 319th record-breaking game am I? But he couldn’t finish out the game … I would’ve liked him out in the middle and leading the charge in the last quarter.”

That being said it still doesn’t explain Voss sitting Pearce Hanley deep in the forward line during the third quarter. Maybe crazy Vossy is a wheel spinning lunatic after all?

3: Carlton’s White Flag:

We touched on the Navy Blues bed sharting expertise last week and after blowing another lead against Hawthorn we can now officially lump them in the choker ring with North Melbourne. At the moment Carlton look about as confident in fourth quarters as Daryll Cullinan facing Warney in the final over before tea.  In six of their seven losses this season the Blues have experienced a double digit lead at some point.  For whatever reason they just can’t capitalise, and against Hawthorn it was the same old rinse and repeat narrative. The Blues experienced more inside 50s in the final term but registered scores at a -28.2% differential.

Game Over;

Carlton v Hawthorn: 4^th Quarter Differentials

You can follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

Note: We at Footy Tragic are thrilled to have formed a partnership with Sportsbet & The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia in 2013. Sportsbet have offered us a weekly free bet of $100 to invest at our discretion, with all winnings going to the Prostate Cancer Foundation.

Nice to get a decent collect last week, Footy Tragics. The Gold Coast did the right thing by us. It really helps to have the best player in the AFL on your side of the wager, particularly against a team that still hasn’t found a bloke as classy as their evergreen superstar Brent Harvey. Interested to see what the line is for North and Freo next week. The Kangaroos are completely gone from a finals perspective if they get done against the Dockers next week, and some would say that’s generous. But they’ve proven they can push the best and there is definitely money to be made off them in the second half of the season.

We’ve got sides returning from the bye in Round 12. Simply put, a side coming off the bye and playing a side that hasn’t yet had it’s bye is at an enormous advantage and should win. GWS and Brisbane defied that axiom last year, and since the latter got a bit of a hiding from Hawthorn, you can see why it’s a good rule. If the roles were reversed and Carlton and Adelaide were the beneficiaries of a week off and Hawthorn and Richmond had to soldier on another week with players carrying injuries you’d want to be on them instead. The Port and GWS game is best avoided though, as the Giants have to pick up a win somewhere and despite coming off the bye and being the first division lottery winners of the phoney-season, Port belong at the bottom of the ladder.

So we’re going to take multis with the fresh sides Richmond and Hawthorn to get the job done in matches they’d be favoured to win without the benefit of a week off. And a couple of sneaky $10 bets at what I thought was some nice value.

Bet #1

Hawthorn pick your own LINE @ -12.5 ($1.47)

Richmond pick your own LINE @-6.5 ($1.44)

$40 @ $2.11 = $84.67

Potential donation of $44.67

Bet #2

Hawthorn @ THE LINE of -26.5 ($1.92)

Richmond @ THE LINE of -20.5 ($1.92)

$40 @ $3.68 = $147.45

Potential donation of $107.45

Bet # 3

Fremantle v Brisbane (Highest Scoring Match of The Round) $10

$10 @ $10 =$100

Potential Donation of $90

Bet # 4

Jake King Most Goals $16

$10 @ $16 = $160

Potential donation of $150

$392.12 to The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia courtesy of a $100 free bet from Sportsbet if they all salute.

This Saturday afternoon the match of the round will feature two sides with finals appetites trading punches at the home of football. Both Richmond and Adelaide have eloped with inconsistency all season long which makes the task of predicting this results all the more challenging. The Tigers are coming off the bye following an impressive win over the Eagles in Perth, whilst the Crows are still licking their wounds after being flattened by the Tom Mitchell express.

The match up will see star heavy midfields in Cotchin, Martin and Deledio going head to head against Thompson, Sloane and Dangerfield but it’s the more unfamiliar names who could dictate this one. For the Tigers Shane Edwards will need to deliver at the coalface and continue his under the radar form which has him ranked second at the club for contested possession, hard ball gets, clearances and first for loose ball gets. We know that Jack Riewoldt will do the business but who will offer support? Tyrone Vickery leads the club in marks on lead totalling six more than Riewoldt on the season. That lead up groundwork will be critical if the Tigers are to navigate past a stingy Crows defence.

For Adelaide Richard Douglas has been in All-Australian form and leads the club in uncontested possession, effective kicks, uncontested marks and tackles but it’s his ability to hit the scoreboard which has been so damaging. Douglas leads Adelaide for inside fifties, score assists, scoreboard impact and is involved in 32% of all Crows scores which is the fifth highest percentage of any player in the AFL. In the absence of Taylor Walker key forward Josh Jenkins has taken on the role as the vocal point up forward and has been quite productive. Jenkins leads the Crows in marks on lead, marks inside fifty, disposals inside forward fifty and goals. It’s no surprise given Jenkins has been targeted inside fifty seventy-three times, forty more times than the next ranked Adelaide player which is still Taylor Walker.

We should be in for a close and hard fought affair. Whoever has more contributors on the day will likely take home the four points.

Richmond Key Indicators

How the Tigers go about it is pretty cut and dry at this point as they’ve been using the same system for quite some time. Richmond is heavily reliant upon an uncontested disposal dependant game plan with safety always the priority which results in a lot of their indicators being sugar coated to the extreme. The Tigers lead the competition in short kicks and sit top five for effective kicks, kicking efficiency, kicks, marks, uncontested marks and uncontested possession. The more space available the happy Richmond is but when opponents work to close that space is when trouble starts as you can see from the following tables representing their output in wins and losses.

Richmond Wins

Richmond Losses

It doesn’t come much more black and white than a complete reversal of output. To take it a step further let’s take a look at where opponents who have defeated Richmond ranked in those areas this season. What you’ll find below is that outside of Geelong who were below average at limiting opposition skills via foot, each team was very consistent and above average in all areas that influence the amount of opponent space and their success going forward.

Adelaide was another side who fit the mould of teams likely to trouble the Tigers but fall away in a few areas, especially when it comes to pressure. The inside fifties ranking is also of concern but considering the Crows are second defensively for percentage of scores allowed from opponent inside fifties they’re well equipped to sufficiently restrict Richmond’s forward line.

Richmond Losses: Opponent Differential Ranking

Adelaide Key Indicators

The Crows days of being a stoppage beast that would destroy opponents via contested possession and clearances are long over. Last season Adelaide was close to unstoppable when playing direct and stiff arming at the coalface, in 2013 we have an unfamiliar Crows outfit that has been plagued by inconsistency. After three straight wins including a comeback from the clouds against North Melbourne it appears as though Adelaide were back on track and utilising the corridor with great effectiveness.

In the past fortnight it’s all come undone and that good work has been forgotten. There’s no shame in dropping games against the two hardest teams to navigate in pressure cooker “gluepot” sides Fremantle and Sydney, but recording the third highest loss at home in your clubs history is reason enough for alarm bells. Adelaide looked methodical, uninspired, predictable and lazy against both the Dockers and Swans, and ultimately played to their opponent’s strengths. Playing wide and calculated is a fine approach if it suits your squad’s makeup, only the Crows are slightly above average, not elite, in all skill based indicators.

It doesn’t matter where you look Adelaide will rank between fifth and tenth in every standard statistical area that exists as far as usage goes. Their only standout weak areas are tackling (fifteenth) and clearances (twelfth) with their primary above average areas hard ball gets (third), loose ball gets (fifth) and marks on lead (fifth). At either end of the ground they are impressive in numerous areas scoring at the sixth most efficient rate of any side once inside fifty and rebounding from defensive fifty at the second most efficient rate.

The good news for Crows fans is that Richmond is below average to average in most defensive areas that influence skills or are related to pressure. The Tigers are in the bottom five teams defensively for short kicks, kicking efficiency, marks and uncontested marks. Richmond appears to be in the upper echelon of teams at face value when it comes to restricting contested possession (first defensively), clearances (fifth defensively) and tackles (third defensively) but these are all products of their system. The whinging about Richmond’s tackle counts has been targeted all season long but their style is never taken into account. The more uncontested you play the lower your tackle count; the raw output is a misguided indicator. The Tigers could definitely do with some improvements in their tackling output but it’s not the sore thumb issue their last place ranking indicates.

Tackling Analysis

Of course if you want to look at pressure rating it’s a whole different level of ordinary for both sides. The following is inexcusable for teams with finals ambitions. For the Tigers their corralling zone just doesn’t get the job done against seasoned teams with high skill levels.

Pressure Rating Differentials

Scoring Sources

Last time we previewed Richmond we noted the switch this season in scoring dependence from turnovers to stoppages which you can read more about here. The narrative hasn’t changed for the Tigers who found themselves struggling to break through against a mature and defensive Essendon midfield registering a season low twenty points in total from stoppages, but a week later crushed an unaccountable West Coast in the middle for a scores from stoppages differential of +26 points. This has been the tale all season long, against seasoned big bodied midfields the Tigers struggle to implement their scoring punch which sees them ranked second overall in the competition for scores from stoppages differential.

As far as turnovers go it’s a Richmond outfit going against the grain and failing to make the most of opportunities ranking thirteenth for scores from stoppages differential ahead of only St. Kilda, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Melbourne and GWS.  If the Tigers midfield is heavily pressured they’ll deliver free points in spades with opponents in Richmond losses averaging eleven goals from turnovers and registering a score from 50% of their forward fifty entries.

Richmond Wins (points per game)

Richmond Losses (points per game)

Adelaide has registered a more even balance when it comes to sourcing scores in season 2013. The Crows rank eleventh for scores from stoppage differential, tenth for scores from turnover differential and second for scores from kick-ins differential. Transitioning from defence has been particularly kind to the Crows this year and has resulted in a two goal scoring advantage in games they’ve won. Like the majority of teams this year turnovers are where Adelaide really breaks down their opposition so it will be imperative for Richmond to be on top of their skills.

The Tigers have shown an impressive ability to hurt teams at stoppages and this has been the standout worrisome area for Adelaide as they’ve allowed opponents to source at least four more goals from stoppages in losses compared to wins. If Adelaide brings the intensity they displayed against Sydney they’ll again be wiped off the map. Given the scrutiny that came their way you’d imagine they won’t allow that be the case this week.

Adelaide lead the competition in score launches from midfield with 88.9% of all Crows scores kick started in either their midfield or defensive fifty. It’s no secret that the Crows have struggled since losing Kurt Tippett and Taylor Walker and as a result they sit dead last for score launches from their forward fifty. Once the ball enters the forward line it vacates rather quickly which should aid the Tigers when they look to counter from their defensive half.

Adelaide Wins (points per game)

Adelaide Losses (points per game)

Who will win and Why

Given their inconsistencies it’s hard to trust either side but after looking at each team in depth a blowout would surprise here. The two teams rank fourth and sixth for time in possession differential and can protect the football. Both teams are also well represented defensively in most areas which are critical to their opponents’ ability to score.

We’re likely to see two contrasting styles with Richmond fifteenth for attacks via the center corridor (ahead of only Melbourne, West Coast and Brisbane) so bank on them to use the width of the ‘G with plenty of short and rapid uncontested possession. Adelaide rank sixth for scores via the center corridor and before last week’s rabble was behind only Geelong and Essendon. The direct avenue is the Crows lifeblood. There’s no Fremantle or Sydney to navigate this week but unfortunately chances are route one for the Crows will be in lockdown yet again and this is where I believe Richmond wins the game.

Adelaide has struggled against sides that defend the corridor well with the following table telling the entire story:

Adelaide Losses: Opponent Defensive Ranking

Adelaide also generates more goals than any other side in the competition from rebound fifties, an area where the Tigers rank second defensively.

Neither side is supreme when it comes to applying pressure or playing consistent footy week to week. Unfortunately there are two areas of importance we can’t break down, how Richmond is feeling internally off the bye and Adelaide likewise off a historically embarrassing loss.

This is a critically important fixture for a pair of sides who are pressing for a finals birth. It’s a chance for Richmond to jump into the top six and Adelaide to maintain touch heading into their bye.

The result could swing either way as it has all the makings of a classic let down game for Richmond but provided the conditions are dry they should be able to get over the line.

Tip: Richmond by 15 points

Bets of the week: GWS +6.5 first quarter, Hawthorn -5.5 first quarter and Brisbane lowest scoring team for the round at $2.50.

You can follow Scott on Twitter: @ScottyBarby

CARLTON v HAWTHORN
Friday 14 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton
B: Mitch Robinson, Michael Jamison, Lachie Henderson
HB: Zach Tuohy, Dennis Armfield, Josh Bootsma
C: Andrew Carrazzo, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ed Curnow, Andrew Walker, Jeff Garlett
F: Brock McLean, Jarrad Waite, Matthew Kreuzer
Foll: Levi Casboult, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland
Int: Bryce Gibbs, Kane Lucas, Eddie Betts, Jaryd Cachia
Emerg: Chris Yarran, Sam Rowe, Simon White

In: A.Carrazzo, J.Bootsma
Out: S.White, C.Yarran

Hawthorn
B: Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Brent Guerra
HB: Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall, Sam Mitchell
C: Isaac Smith, Luke Hodge, Bradley Hill
HF: Jack Gunston, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
Foll: Max Bailey, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis
Int: Liam Shiels, Taylor Duryea, David Hale, Jonathan Simpkin
Emerg: Kyle Cheney, Sam Grimley, Shane Savage

In: M.Bailey, J.Gunston
Out: K.Cheney, S.Grimley

RICHMOND v ADELAIDE CROWS
Saturday 15 June, 1:40pm, MCG

Richmond
B: Steven Morris, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
HB: Chris Newman, Troy Chaplin, Nick Vlastuin
C: Shaun Grigg, Trent Cotchin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Aaron Edwards, Shane Edwards, Jake King
F: Ty Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
Foll: Ivan Maric, Brett Deledio, Nathan Foley
Int: Matt White, Brandon Ellis, Jake Batchelor, Reece Conca
Emerg: Robin Nahas, David Astbury, Sam Lonergan

In: R.Conca, B.Ellis
Out: S.Lonergan, M.Dea (calf)

Adelaide
B: Rory Laird, Ben Rutten, Andrew Otten
HB: David Mackay, Daniel Talia, Brodie Smith
C: Nathan van Berlo, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane
HF: Thomas Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Bernie Vince
F: Jason Porplyzia, Shaun McKernan, Ian Callinan
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Scott Thompson, Richard Douglas
Int: Matthew Jaensch, Luke Brown, Ricky Henderson, Matthew Wright
Emerg: Graham Johncock, Jarryd Lyons, Brad Crouch

In: D.Mackay, M.Jaensch, M.Wright, L.Brown
Out: B.Reilly, J.Petrenko (shoulder), S.Kerridge, B.Crouch

FREMANTLE v BRISBANE LIONS
Saturday 15 June, 2:40pm, Patersons Stadium

Fremantle
B: Zac Dawson, Luke McPharlin, Lee Spurr
HB: Paul Duffield, Michael Johnson, Nick Suban
C: Clancee Pearce, Ryan Crowley, Michael Barlow
HF: Nathan Fyfe, Chris Mayne, Hayden Crozier
F: Hayden Ballantyne, Jack Hannath, Alex Silvagni
Foll: Zac Clarke, David Mundy, Stephen Hill
Int: Garrick Ibbotson, Tendai Mzungu, Matt de Boer, Danyle Pearce
Emerg: Cameron Sutcliffe, Matthew Taberner, Tom Sheridan

In: A.Silvagni
Out: C.Sutcliffe

Brisbane
B: Ryan Harwood, Justin Clarke, Elliot Yeo
HB: Jed Adcock, Joel Patfull, Ryan Lester
C: Sam Mayes, Jack Redden, Pearce Hanley
HF: Rohan Bewick, Jordan Lisle, Dayne Zorko
F: Ashley McGrath, Matthew Leuenberger, Brent Staker
Foll: Niall McKeever, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff
Int: Andrew Raines, Mitch Golby, Sam Docherty, Daniel Rich
Emerg: James Polkinghorne, Billy Longer, Marco Paparone

In: M.Leuenberger, T.Rockliff, J.Lisle, D.Rich, M.Golby, N.McKeever, S.Mayes
Out: B.Moloney (back), J.Polkinghorne, P.Karnezis, B.Longer, J.Crisp, S.Michael, M.Paparone

ESSENDON v GOLD COAST SUNS
Saturday 15 June, 7:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Essendon
B: Tayte Pears, Jake Carlisle, Mark Baguley
HB: Brendon Goddard, Cale Hooker, Michael Hibberd
C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell
HF: Jason Winderlich, Michael Hurley, Stewart Crameri
F: Nick Kommer, Joe Daniher, Alwyn Davey
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Heath Hocking, David Zaharakis
Int: Jackson Merrett, Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett, David Myers
Emerg: Tom Bellchambers, Elliott Kavanagh, Kyle Hardingham

In: T.Pears, J.Merrett
Out: W.Hams, D.Fletcher (groin)

Gold Coast
B: Trent McKenzie, Sam Day, Joel Wilkinson
HB: David Swallow, Rory Thompson, Tom Murphy
C: Matt Shaw, Gary Ablett, Jarrod Harbrow
HF: Liam Patrick, Tom Lynch, Aaron Hall
F: Campbell Brown, Daniel Gorringe, Timmy Sumner
Foll: Tom Nicholls, Danny Stanley, Dion Prestia
Int: Jack Hutchins, Michael Rischitelli, Luke Russell, Jaeger O’Meara
Emerg: Jacob Gillbee, Steven May, Maverick Weller

In: D.Gorringe
Out: C.Dixon (ankle)

GWS GIANTS v PORT ADELAIDE
Sunday 16 June, 1:10pm, Skoda Stadium

GWS Giants
B: Lachie Plowman, Joshua Bruce, Adam Kennedy
HB: Curtly Hampton, Tim Mohr, Sam Reid
C: Lachie Whitfield, Adam Treloar, Tom Scully
HF: Jacob Townsend, Jeremy Cameron, Stephen Coniglio
F: Rhys Palmer, Adam Tomlinson, Devon Smith
Foll: Jonathan Giles, Callan Ward, Toby Greene
Int (from): Zachary Williams, Taylor Adams, Stephen Gilham, Dylan Shiel, Aidan Corr, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Gerald Ugle

In: W.Hoskin-Elliott, Z.Williams, T.Greene
Out:

Port Adelaide
B: Alipate Carlile, Jack Hombsch, Cameron O’Shea
HB: Matthew Broadbent, Thomas Jonas, Tom Logan
C: Chad Wingard, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes
HF: Jake Neade, John Butcher, Angus Monfries
F: Cameron Hitchcock, Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff
Foll: Matthew Lobbe, Oliver Wines, Hamish Hartlett
Int (from): Nathan Blee, Andrew Moore, Brad Ebert, Matt Thomas, Robbie Gray, Kane Mitchell, Paul Stewart

In: M.Thomas, M.Lobbe, P.Stewart, A.Moore, N.Blee
Out: C.Heath, J.Redden (shoulder)

COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Sunday 16 June, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Heritier O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Kyle Martin, Tim Broomhead, Ben Sinclair, Alan Didak, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Adam Oxley

In: S.Dwyer, T.Broomhead, J.Elliott
Out: nil

Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Dylan Addison
C: Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Ryan Griffen
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus
Foll: Will Minson, Tom Liberatore, Nick Lower
Int (from): Lukas Markovic, Liam Picken, Mitch Wallis, Koby Stevens, Clay Smith, Nathan Hrovat, Tom Campbell

In: M.Boyd, A.Cooney, L.Markovic, T.Campbell
Out: T.Williams (shoulder)

BYES: North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast, Sydney, Geelong, Melbourne

Well, that was painful. 1 down, 2 to go. How did you all fair in the first week of the bye rounds?

Ya’ know, these 3 weeks kind of remind me of that scene when Homer, whilst posing as Krusty for an appearance at Krusty Burger, starts brutally pummelling the dwarf dressed as the Krusty Burglar when he thinks that he’s stealing the burgers, and as the crowd of horrified children look on, one of them in tears blabbers “Stop! Stop! He’s already dead..” Somehow, in some twisted way, that’s what it feels like these bye rounds are doing to our teams – Helplessly beating them into submission whilst all we can do is watch on in despair until it’s over.. and perhaps cry? (hehe!). Please don’t ask me how on earth I extracted that reference and made the correlation.. ha!

(Ps. That is such a great episode!)

ENN-E-WAYY! ..Here’s how my boys went in R11.

Note: Moved up inside the top 500 to 465th, so it wasn’t all bad, though I’m very much not looking forward to the next 2 weeks so I think I will savour that ranking while it lasts.

Kieran Jack and to a lesser extent, Ben Kennedy, can hold their heads up high this week after becoming the latest inductees to the “Wilson Curse Debunkers – Hall of Fame”, with 130 and 83 points respectively, on debut for the Vinegar Strokes. Though one could argue that it were near on impossible for a Swans player to score poorly against the Crows on Saturday night, right eebz? ;)

GEELONG, NORTH MELBOURNE, SYDNEY, ST KILDA, WEST COAST, MELBOURNE.

..Are the teams wrecking our lives for this weekend, so let’s see how this pans out, shall we?

Now, after being able to field a fairly strong side last week (21 players) I have been brought back down to earth this week in crushing fashion with the likely scenario of only fielding the minimum 18. Whether they’re my “best 18″ is almost insignificant. This situation is predominantly due to my Cat-heavy forward line in Bartel, Stevie J and Stokes, also chuck Josh J. Kennedy in there and it’s looking grim on that line. Thankfully, I have the ability to alleviate some of that carnage by switching Sam Rowe with Roughead in my rucks and slotting Roughy up forward for a week using the magical Dual Position links, though this would’ve worked out a lot nicer had Rowe been getting games, so unfortunately it’s still a donut from him, barring a Mick Malthouse change of heart before the weekend, which is unlikely.

My list of absentees for this round is as follows: S.Selwood, Cox, Kennedy, Jack, Rampe, Johnson, Stokes, Bartel, Thurlow, Terlich, Ferguson, (Rowe). 12 players with 7 premiums in total. Not fun, so lets have a look at how much I can stop the bleeding.

Firstly, I’ll admit I had a mare with picking up young Ferguson a couple of weeks ago. I was suckered in by his DP def/fwd status of which I could link with Brent Staker, and naively thought that if he could string a few games together over the byes to help me out then that would give me greater flexibility. Thus, he had an absolute shocker of debut, got subbed off at half-time, finished on a score of -6 which has to be some sort of new record in Fantasy terms (an inverted donut perhaps?) and was immediately dropped the next week. This now makes him a liability to my team rather than an aid. Wilson Fail.

“Gotta risk it to get the biscuit” right Dockerone? … though, no biscuits for me there, and I like biscuits. Damn..

So unfortunately I’ve snookered myself a bit here. Oh well, what’s done is done and I now have the frustrating task of either holding Ferguson on the unlikely chance of a recall next week, or just to straight up trade him to a R11 bye player to help strengthen my backline for what will be further hurt next week, (4 premium defenders out for R13) as I can’t rely on simply Thurlow & Terlich alone.

This is why I can only foresee the one trade scenario this week – Blicavs to Nicholls, then Ferguson to a defender under $400k – which at this stage is likely to be Birchall or Ellis. I only mention these guys as front-runners as they have both had their byes and both look to be the best value within that price range. I’m tending to swing toward Ellis at this stage as although Birchall started of the year like steam train, his form-line has dropped off significantly in the last month or so and has clearly been targeted by opposition teams after his damaging start. Whereas Ellis has hit some fine form before his bye and still has a negative break even, which means he makes money regardless. In that case I envisage my team looking like this, which I feel is likely the best way to prepare myself for the R13 bye week, as at this point it’s looking like I’ll be only fielding another 18 as a minimum next week.

I have played around with a few different trade ideas this week including upgrading Terlich to a Duffield type, but unfortunately everything leads me back to covering my depleted backline for R13, as you can see above. This means Ferguson has to go as he will be of no help next week when I’ll need all possible hands on deck.

Let me know what you think and if you have any glaring observations or something I may have missed, as I’d love to hear it! As you can see, theres not much ‘luxury’ trading going on this week in the Wilson camp, as I’m sure we’re all well into damage control mode..

How is your team prepared for the 2nd week of bye rounds? Hopefully better than mine! Let us know below.

Also, click here for 11 seconds of awesomeness.