Footy Tragic

This week I am going to look at two similarly priced defenders; with players such as Hunt, Maguire, Nason and Ladson seeming to have reached their highest prices, now is the time to consider upgrading them. The question is, do you pounce on a premium player who has had a rough start to the season and is now dirt-cheap compared to his starting price, or do you look at a younger player who looks on the verge of a breakout season? The two players I will look at are Ryan Hargrave and Paul Bower – hopefully by the end of this article the answer can appear more clearly…

Paul Bower:

Bower is still a very young player – at 22 years old, he has only played 47 career games. He has always been a player whom Carlton saw plenty of promise in, so they have spent plenty of time teaching him both the art of stopping a forward, but also running off his man. In his first three years, Bower was given somewhat of an “apprenticeship” by Carlton, being given big tasks on some of the games most dominating forwards, such as Riewoldt and Franklin. The idea of this apprenticeship is to teach him defence before teaching him attack – essentially, attack is easy for a player (such as Bower) who has always played attacking football as a junior, but it is important to teach him from early in his career how to defend. St.Kilda gave the same type of apprenticeship to Sam Gilbert over the first few years of his career and we saw the results last year when he was finally allowed to combine his two crafts – defensive and attacking football.

Last year saw Bower given some rebounding responsibilities in the absence of Waite (who went down mid-season with a knee injury), and he managed to finish the season ranked second at the club for rebound-50s and as proof he is capable of reading the play well, he was also second at the club for marks from opposition kicks. Across the year he averaged 19.5 disposals per game, 5.8 marks and 2 tackles.

So far this year, Bower has only played in two games, and this is what makes his form slightly hard to read – whilst he has been fantastic in those two games, it is a much larger risk picking up a player such as him who has no real form history to base the selection on – essentially you are basing your selection on two good games and some high potential. That potential is very high though – his form graph from previous seasons shows an average of 45 in 2006, 52 in 2007, 56 in 2008, 71 in 2009, and already he is averaging 112 in 2010.

His two early high scores are certainly not unwarranted though – whilst there are plenty of players who can have an ‘out of the box’ game, and then some really rare cases where they have two in a row, a player with as much potential, promise and expected DT rise such as Bower should not be taken simply as chance. Like he became in the second half of last year, Bower is a key rebounding target for Carlton – he still takes key forwards, but Carlton have given him a licence to run off his man, a fact that made him the second leakiest defender at Carlton last year, but I believe his high quality rebounding will mean Coach Ratten won’t get too concerned. Also, with the inevitable return of Thornton and Waite, Bower is likely to get put on less dangerous forwards, allowing for more ventures upfield.

To sum up, I think Bower is a really positive choice – he has already proven this year that he is capable of some high scores, and whilst I doubt his average will stay at 112, I think he could still comfortably average around 90 points a game – a healthy return for a player of his price. His rise in stats and form are not total surprises either – he is a nominated rebounder for Carlton and his quality is recognized by Ratten, meaning he will regularly be put in ball-winning positions. As with any defender, you must expect some bad with the good, but I feel that 2010 is a year likely to filled with plenty more good than bad for Bower and his owners.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 0.8 : 1

Average Marks per game: 11

Average Tackles per game: 2.5

Average Disposals per game: 28

Breakeven: 8

Average Dream Team Points: 111.5

Price: $313,100

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 0.8 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.8

Average Tackles per game: 1.9

Average Disposals per game: 19.5

Average Dream Team Points: 71

Ryan Hargrave:

Hargrave is a very interesting trade target – he came into the season as the second most expensive defender (behind only Goddard), but has shown his owners absolutely nothing of his 2009 form, which saw him earn this hefty starting price-tag! Now I know I often make a case for players each week, telling you why they scored poorly – I blame taggers, heavy bumps, or being played out of position, however there is no player with a bigger and easier to find reason for poor scoring than Hargrave – and that is what now makes him such a bargain! In round one he scored a poor 49 points (it was later admitted he shouldn’t have played due to suffering from a head cold), round two was 69 points (and the cold excuse was given again), then in round three he injured his ankle only a few minutes into the game, finishing him on 9 points. Round four he was eased in, given very little game time, meaning he finished with only 65 points. He then missed round five with the injury and was back on the weekend, scoring himself 108 points. Get the idea?

So it hasn’t been the most ideal start to the season for Hargrave (or his owners!), but by the looks of his game on the weekend, things may be on the improve… His 108 points did get a bit lost in the other massive Bulldogs scores from the same game, however his role was more what stood out to me than how many times he got it. Whilst Hargrave spent the first quarter manning Zac Dawson, the rest of the game he was given the role of a loose defender, meaning he was free to do as he pleased. Unlike the likes of Gia and Gilbee who got most of their disposals from backwards kicking, Hargrave won most of his ball from legitimate rebounding (plus a few cheapies which this role always comes with!) – this to me says that his scoring could become somewhat consistent again. It was positive to see Hargrave back to the role that won him plenty of the ball in the past two years – the week off seems to have done his body a deal of good and this role is always going to be one he will score well in.

Clearly we are not basing Hargrave’s future scoring predictions in one good game, but on plenty of games prior to this season – it was only in the second half of 2008 that we really saw a rise out of Hargrave’s scoring; from rounds 1 – 9 in 2008, he averaged 51 points, but from rounds 10 – 22 he was averaging a much more respectable 87 as he was given more license to attack out of the backline and was often played as a lose man. His average and price rose again in 2009, and he averaged 93 points for the year – this shows that he is capable of consistently high scoring and further proves the point that his first few weeks were just aberrations caused by injury.

I don’t think there is much doubting Hargrave’s expected turn around from this point on – he is a proven scorer and in once again being played in the position that has won him so many points in the past. Whilst it may be a bit over-zealous to expect a 90-something average, his current price is still way too low to ignore; he has so far dropped $117,000 and won’t be dropping any further with a low breakeven this week. Some may want to wait another week to see if he can replicate Friday’s score against Melbourne, but personally I think that the key ingredients are there to make him a worthwhile pick; he is now injury free, he is dirt cheap, he has previously exposed good form, and is coming off a very good game. I therefore don’t see the need to hesitate.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.4

Average Tackles per game: 2.2

Average Disposals per game: 15.4

Breakeven: 42

Average Dream Team Points: 60

Price: $292,100 (-$117,400)

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.9 : 1

Average Marks per game: 7

Average Tackles per game: 2

Average Disposals per game: 24.2

Average Dream Team Points: 93

Note: Don’t forget to check out Toby’s Weekend Wrap-Up from Round 5!

This week I’m looking at two more players who have started the season slowly – this time in the midfield. These are two players who have had a few slow weeks, only to finally hit back on the weekend with some very respectable scores. This means their prices have now leveled out and should be heading upwards each week from now. The two players I am talking about are Domenic Cassisi of Port Adelaide and Jordan Lewis of Hawthorn.

Domenic Cassisi:

Cassisi, Port’s Captain, is a very tough inside midfielder, who over the past two seasons has averaged 93 DT points. The strength of Cassisi as a dream teamer is his amazing tackling ability – in 2009 he averaged a whopping eight tackles per game (that’s 32 points worth!) with a total season tally of 161! Tackling is arguably one of the most important modern-day traits to have in your DT players, and statistically Cassisi is the second best in the league (behind only Brett Kirk), so this is a great trait to be able to rely upon every week. So far in 2010 Cassisi has made 32 tackles (equal 6^th in the league), however the rest of his game has been less than ordinary. Over the past two years Cassisi has averaged 22.5 disposals and 3 marks per game, however in the first four games of the year he has averaged only 16.5 disposals (and evidentially only 68 DT points) – clearly well down on his previous years output.

Now I wouldn’t be doing my job if I couldn’t give a reason behind this apparent form slump, so going back to round one (72 points vs North Melbourne) is about the only game I can’t find much reason for – Port played well and Cassisi went head-to-head with Ziebell, however in rounds 2 – 4 we can see more reason for his low output; in round two Adam Selwood shut him down, round three Power were smashed by Brisbane’s midfield, round four saw Port play at Skilled Stadium, and whilst Cassisi was Port’s top scorer, he still did not quite make the ton thanks to a dominant Cats midfield. But watching both Cassisi and the rest of the Port team against St.Kilda on Saturday night he looked much better – 28 disposals, ten marks and five tackles. The team around him also looked much stronger, and now with Boak, Rodan and Pearce all in good form it is much more likely that Cassisi will be less effected by taggers.

To compare this year to the past couple, it is interesting to see that Cassisi has started slowly in both of his past two years; in 2008 he averaged 84 for the first five rounds (before averaging 95 for the rest of the year) and in 2009 it was 81 points for the first four, but averaged 96 points for the rest of the year – and in these remaining games he clocked up a score over 100 on 10 occasions (5 of which were over 120) and only dropped below 90 on five occasions. So from these stats it can be seen that Cassisi is typically a slow starter to the year, meaning that his big game on the weekend could well be the start of a big year for him.

Whilst he is not quite premium material, right now his price seems too low to pass up (he has hit bottom price now, so pounce now if you are ever going to!) – he is capable of scoring some massive numbers, especially with his immense tackling rate. Right now he is already ranked 6^th in the competition for tackles, yet hasn’t even hit his strides – and what is even more important about a selection like Cassisi is his uniqueness – he is in only 0.89% of teams, so it is very unlikely you will be coming up against many mates with him in your team!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1

Average Marks per game: 3

Average Tackles per game: 6.4

Average Disposals per game: 18.8

Breakeven: 97

Average Dream Team Points: 78.6

Price: $351,000 (-$61,000)

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 0.7 : 1

Average Marks per game: 3.1

Average Tackles per game: 7.7

Average Disposals per game: 22.4

Average Dream Team Points: 94

Jordan Lewis:

Jordan Lewis is arguably the toughest player in the Hawks lineup – and that is a big call when he is running alongside players such as Hodge, Sewell and Taylor. However, thanks to his ferocity to the ball and the ball carrier, Lewis has had a very tough start to the season. Lewis started the year on a good note as the Hawks thrashed Melbourne – in this game he was the best afield and helped himself to 109 DT points, which consisted of 27 disposals – many of which were huge contributors to his team’s large win. Round two saw the Hawks pitted against the reigning premiers Geelong, and like many of his teammates he had a quiet one. The game was played in close (just how Lewis likes it), yet he strangely saw little of the ball and only lay the one tackle. In week three against the Dogs, Lewis had already gained 52 points by halfway through the second quarter and was looking in great form until he was KO’d by Jarrod Harbrow and was left unconscious. He returned briefly at the end of the game for 12 more points but looked completely out of it. This hit did plenty of damage to Lewis – for those who saw it, they would agree how bad it looked – Lewis was left  unconscious on the ground and with his eyes still open – it is amazing he even made it back on the field the next week, let alone in the same game. In week four against Collingwood it was clear he was still not 100% recovered from the bump and subsequently spent a lot of time on the bench.

So it is fair to say that Lewis has not had the most appropriate start to the season – he looked great in his first game, and just as good against the Dogs until he was knocked out. This week, against North Melbourne, he looked back into form, having now recovered from the effects of the bump – he scored 112 points and was one of the Hawks better players. The subsequent price drop that has followed his few low scores has now made him super cheap – pre-season Lewis was being talked up as a great prospect for 2010 – he hadn’t missed a beat at training (for the first time in a while) and looked good through the NAB cup. However, despite the fact he was a very popular DT choice in the pre-season, he has ended up in just 1% of teams, making him a very unique pick.

For the past three years Lewis has really improved his game (and subsequently his DT game), and he averaged 94 points in season 2009. In 2009 he averaged 26 disposals and never dropped below 20 disposals all year – a fantastic stat which proves his consistency (in dream team he only dropped below 80 points on four occasions). The one area in his game that really could be improved is his tackling – despite being a great in-and-under player, he only averaged 2.4 tackles per game in 2009 – but I am hoping that the five tackles he laid against the Roos is showing that he is attempting to make this a part of his game (5 tackles was his second best tackling effort in 2009). If he were to make up for his lack of tackling, it would be the fact he averaged over 6 marks per game – a good effort for a midfielder.

The great part of Lewis as a pick is the obvious reason for his price drop – a low-grade injury. It is also good to have been able to see him play two very good quality games on either side of this injury – it shows us that not only did he come into the season in good form, but his latest efforts have also been of quality. There is plenty of expectations on the Hawks this season, so Lewis, along with his teammates, will really need to step up a gear (and soon!) to make this season count, and I expect this is exactly what they will do – with Young, Burgoyne and Bateman all coming back from injury, it shouldn’t be too long before the Hawks find another gear, aiding the likes of Lewis to score higher.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.36 : 1

Average Marks per game: 6.2

Average Tackles per game: 2.2

Average Disposals per game: 21.8

Breakeven: 83

Average Dream Team Points: 83.2

Price: $349,200 (-$62,400)

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.9

Average Tackles per game: 2.4

Average Disposals per game: 26.2

Average Dream Team Points: 94

There comes a time early in the season, in just about every team, where you regret a few pre-season decisions – you’ve taken a punt on a player who never improved, or you blew your budget to lock in a premium who has so far done less than the player you have sitting on your bench… So round five onwards seems to be the time where you begin to ditch these failed experiments and leaky premiums for greener pastures – you look at players who are averaging 110 points (who you nearly had in your team before round one) and you wish you had enough money to afford them. But then you look a little bit down the list at players already well below their starting price, the players whom other coaches are wishing they didn’t start in their teams. But unlike your dud player, these other players have dropped for a variety of other reasons – an early injury in one game, a really hard tag in another, or possibly the team around them just got off to a really slow start. But the beauty of these players is that you know they are going to come good again – they averaged well over 100 last year, and if it weren’t for a couple of poor games to start 2010, they would be averaging 100 again now. These premium players, who may have already dropped in excess of $50,000 are the types you should be targeting right now – you will be getting them at bargain basement price, and often you are well aware of what you are going to get out of them for the remainder of the season. So this week I will look at two falling premium forwards; Alan Didak and Steve Johnson – historically they are both DT stars, but so far in 2010 they haven’t been any better than average – but lucky for you, I believe things are about to change!

Alan Didak:

Didak started the season with a price of marginally over $450k, but after four weeks he has already lost his owners $59k, meaning he is currently priced at the very affordable $392,400. The reason behind his early season plummet is taggers – whilst in round one against the Dogs Didak player well, scoring a very good 111 points, in round two it was form that was the issue – like most of the Pies, he just couldn’t get into the game (This was when they narrowly defeated the resilient Demons). Weeks three and four, Clint Jones and Gary Moss followed him around the ground, each doing a fair job at curtailing his influence, a fact that could certainly read as either good or bad – good because it is not a form issue behind his low scoring, bad because it is proving that he is the main target of taggers in the Pies lineup. Fortunately though, Didak does have some fairly good support around him to potentially take the pressure off – all of Pendlebury, Swan, Davis and Thomas have the potential to cop the opposition’s number one tagger for the game. If we shoot back 12 months to Didak’s 2009 season, we can see that he didn’t really hit his straps until his 6^th game of the season – 127 points against Melbourne. From then until round 22, Didak averaged 110 points, and only dropped below 90 points twice. So he is certainly capable of having some big games, and plenty of them in a row. The fact that Collingwood is only now starting to hit their straps is also an encouraging factor – against both Melbourne and St.Kilda they were very flat and the entire team scored appropriately – so it was not just Dids who copped a low score. Also, his game was actually not too bad – he was well held, but he did show signs that he is not far off his dominant form. So whilst he is often the subject of tagger’s attention, he has proven in the past that he has the workrate (and the team around him) to combat this.

As it stands, Didak has probably one more week until he hits his lowest price – he has a breakeven of 134 points, so at the very best he is still likely to drop down some more – 100 points will see him slashed a further $15,000 or so. At this price, Didak is worth the gamble – he is a great DT player and has the runs on the board to prove it. His team is currently coming out of a rut and into some form which should help carry his average upwards.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.4 : 1

Average Marks per game: 2.5

Average Goals per game: 1.75

Average Disposals per game: 21.75

Breakeven: 134

Average Dream Team Points: 84

Price: $392,400

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.4 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.1

Average Goals per game: 1

Average Disposals per game: 25.5

Average Dream Team Points: 103

Steve Johnson:

Stevie J is a notoriously slow starter to the season. In 2008 he averaged 71 points in the first four rounds before averaging 93 for the season, and in 2009 a dry patch from rounds 3 and 6 saw his price drop when he averaged 87 points. Again in 2010, the average for his first four games has been 86 points, forcing his price to drop by $45,000. But his 103 points (thanks to a bag of six goals) in round four is proof that he is coming back into form. Johnson’s issue has not so much been taggers (although he was well held by Broughton in round 3) as it has been fitness. As many coaches would know, Johnson’s 2009 season was cut short at the business end thanks to ongoing issues with his hip – it caused him to miss six of the last nine games and then a large portion of the pre-season. Like many of his teammates, Johnson was put on a very low-grade training program in the off-season to ensure he came into the season well rested. Whilst these sorts of programs can prove effective at preventing injuries, the side-effect is that it will generally take a few weeks for players to get satisfactory match fitness up. Now, Johnson’s few weeks of regaining fitness appear to be up and his six goals on the weekend have gone a long way to proving he is back in touch. The only worry is that he spent very little time venturing upfield to win ball in the midfield – whilst one can assume that this is again related to his fitness, there is the worry that perhaps his hip is hindering more than Geelong would care to let on and therefore there is a chance he could be bound to the forward line for the majority of the year so as to make sure he does not re-injure the hip. When he is up and going, Johnson is brilliant to watch, and scores you plenty of DT points. I am pretty confident that his form (and DT points) will return as his fitness continues to build (and Geelong get on a bit of a role), however a part of me does throw caution to the wind – I am still a bit worried that his hip issue that Geelong say ‘disappeared’ in the off-season may come back to bite both him and the coaches that pick him up in the bottom… Perhaps just be sure to have a trade up your sleeve for the business end of the season…

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.77 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.75

Average Goals per game: 2.75

Average Disposals per game: 18.75

Breakeven: 118

Average Dream Team Points: 86.25

Price: $391,900

Key Stats 2009:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 6.2

Average Goals per game: 2.22

Average Disposals per game: 20

Average Dream Team Points: 99

Note: We suggest reading the article below before voting!!!

Ok… Well I’m sure there will be no big surprises as to what this article will be about; after the tragic injury to Nick Riewoldt on Friday night, 148,449 coaches felt the pain of losing Dream Team’s most premium forward. There are now plenty of questions on everyone’s minds; “Do I trade him?” “If so, do I swap him for a similarly priced premium?” “Or do I swap him for a cheaper option, allowing me to upgrade another player with the excess cash?”

All questions are appropriate, and different answers will apply to different circumstances – although one question will have a universal answer, and that is no matter how much you love the man, no matter how many trades you have left, you must trade him – firstly, it is expected he will miss (a minimum) 8 – 10 weeks, but as is the nature of his injury, any timeframe given will be purely speculative, meaning that it has every chance of being longer. Also, you don’t want a player worth $445,000 sitting idle on your bench when that sort of money could easily afford you a player who will average at least 100 points for the year.

I believe there are two main strategies to choose from, and within each strategy there are two players to choose from. For this reason I am going to shoot myself in the foot and set myself a massive task for this article – I will review all four players, as well as the pros and cons of each tactic.

Tactic 1: The Like-for-like Swap

I believe that this is the path most coaches will take for the Riewoldt trade – it is safe (as you know you are picking up a premium player), and to make it easier, there are two very clear options of who to trade to. This method involves swapping Riewoldt for a player of similar price and stature – the two clear trade options are Jonathan Brown and Ryan O’Keefe. Each player has his own benefits, and the great part about this tactic is that neither have any significant downsides.

Jonathan Brown:

Brown has started the year on absolute fire and after round two was the “must-have” player for just about anyone who didn’t have him. He has been in dominating form, already booting 17 goals for the year! Coming into the season, many people had worried about the possible adverse effect that Fevola would have on Brown’s game, but clearly Fev’s inclusion has worked brilliantly for him. Whilst Bradshaw was a great player, Fev is clearly better, meaning there is absolutely no chance an opposition coach will stick a second-rate defender on Fev – in turn this means Brown is less likely to be double teamed (and hence increasing his scoring potential). What’s more, Brown came into the season in great condition for the first time in many years – this means he is super fit, strong, and less likely to get injured. Anyone who has watched a Brisbane game this year will attest to the super form Brown is in – he is simply dominating games and looks close to unstoppable! If there were a downside to Brown, it would be the fact he has played three reasonably weak defences – West Coast, Carlton and Port Adelaide – and whilst none of these three are considered ‘poor’ backlines, they’re are certainly no St.Kilda, Geelong or Bulldogs. This means we have not yet seen Brown pitched against any of these top teams and makes us slightly hesitant to get him as we are unsure if he will have the capacity to dominate against such sides. At the end of the day, I think this weakness is one that could become over-exaggerated – regardless of the opposition, no one would have been able to stop Brown in his current form.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 4.36 : 1

Average Marks per game: 10

Average Goals per game: 5.66

Average Disposals per game: 20

Breakeven: 86

Average Dream Team Points: 124.33

Price: $441,600

Ryan O’Keefe:

O’Keefe would bring a very different style of player into your Dream Team than Brown – O’Keefe is one of the few DT forwards who actually don’t play their games in the forward line. Although O’Keefe used to play as a third forward for Sydney, his role is now as a ball winning midfielder with a great workrate and a great kick. He is a very sneaky pick for your team as you are essentially picking up a midfielder in your forward line! His season to date has also been a very impressive one – he would likely be leading Sydney’s B&F at the moment thanks to his great ball-winning ability, but also has the capabilities to find space and hit up his forwards with precision. Last year O’Keefe proved that in his new role he was able to clock up some very impressive dream team scores, such as the 173 he scored against Carlton. He is also incredibly consistent, only dropping below 85 three times after round six. He has also already proven this year he can crack the big scores with two games above 120 points! The worry with O’Keefe, as there seems to be with any Sydney player, is the amount of ball that gets won through the Sydney midfield. Sydney have typically been a team known for their low disposal count – up until this year that is! They are really using the ball differently this season to years past with their injection of youth and speed into the lineup – Sydney have never been so exciting to watch. So as it stands, I think there is little to worry about regarding Sydney as a team – they are in winning form and have stepped up their disposal count, meaning O’Keefe could be every chance to step up from the high standard he set for himself last year.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.67 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.6

Average Goals per game: 1.6

Average Disposals per game: 27.6

Breakeven: 97

Average Dream Team Points: 114.67

Price: $438,300

Tactic 2: The Mid-Priced Bargain

This theory is obviously a little different to the first; it sees you instead downgrading Riewoldt to a cheaper player, but not necessarily one who will score you any less. These are players on the bubble – they have played two games and are in fantastic form. The trade to them will allow you some extra cash to perhaps upgrade (either this week or later on) one of your underperforming players from elsewhere on the field. It is a riskier strategy as you are not necessarily swapping for players with much of a rich DT history, but from their exposed 2010 form there is every likelihood that they are on the cusp of a breakout year.

Jarred Brennan:

Without wanting to blow my own horn (but when you have the opportunity…) I called Brennan’s meteoric rise this year in the pre-season when every training session he spent 100% of his time with the midfielders. So, what I mean by this is that his huge first two games weren’t necessarily out of the box – the writing was on the wall if you looked close enough. Brennan has for many years been a special talent, however we have never seen him mature into a consistent footballer. Now 25 years old, Brennan seems to have finally matured – it is certainly noticeable in his on-field presence as well as his maturity now when interviewed. Now, whilst only so much can be read into a player’s persona in front of a camera, for Brennan his maturity was often what Leigh Matthews (his previous coach) put as the reason for his inconsistencies as a player – so now he has grown up we should be able to expect a much better player. When we look at both games he has played this year (he sat out round 3 with a suspension), it is clear he is in form – he dominated in both games, winning plenty of the ball, but also adding tackling to his long list of skills. He is a highly talented player and there is no doubting his ability, but if we trade him in, the expectation is that he continues in the same vein. So what is to stop him from reverting back to his old ways? I believe, from both watching him onfield and listening to him off it, 2010 could finally be the year we see Brennan establish himself in the elite bracket of footballers.

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 8

Average Disposals per game: 26.5

Breakeven: 31

Average Dream Team Points: 120

Price: $373,000

Cyril Rioli:

Sometimes it can be too easy to get sucked into a player just because they are highly skilled, but unfortunately they don’t get enough of the pill for DT. Rioli has often looked like he will be one of these players – he could be best on ground, yet only have 20 touches of the ball. But already this year, with his high pace, skill and frenetic energy, Rioli has shown he is no DT slouch. In his most recent game (against the Bulldogs), Rioli scored a very impressive 130 DT points – certainly nothing to scoff at! Coming into the season, Rioli had been suffering from early Osteitis Pubis – a cruelling groin injury, which strips players of their pace and penetration on their kicks. Fortunately, Hawthorn rested Rioli properly (the only way to get over this issue) and he appears to be now healthy. His role in the team sees him playing mainly as a forward, but he is capable of pushing up the field and racking up plenty of possessions on the wing. And it is no secret that Hawthorn want him to play as much time in the midfield as possible this year – not only does he have fantastic skills, but his renowned pace and tackling ability will put fear into any opposition midfielders. As the year wears on and Hawthorn are more confident with the condition of Rioli’s groin, I expect we will see much more of him in the midfield, but up until then, he will still spend large chunks of each game in the forward line, meaning there is a strong chance he will have the occasional stinker (i.e. 30 – 50 points). Other than his injury history, my main worry with Rioli is that his game has never been one very suited to Dream Team, so there is every chance that this 130 points is one out of the box. However, as Dan pointed out on the site yesterday, that just like Gary Ablett Jnr he has never had a game suited to DT – but perhaps he is just so bloody good he is going to score well anyway!

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.8 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 5.5

Average Disposals per game: 16

Average Goals: 2.5

Breakeven: 42

Average Dream Team Points: 100.5

Price: $334,900

Note: Be sure to check out Toby’s extensive Weekend Wrap-Up from Round Two.

Welcome to the first of Footy Tragic’s two brand new articles for 2010, “Who’d you rather?” This article will replace the weekly poll, and will pitch two players of equal value (from the same position) up against each other – I will discuss the pros and cons of each player and give my executive decision of which I think is the better choice for your dream team. I will try to make these articles as relevant as possible. And it must be re-iterated, I am not discussing which is the better player of the game, but who is the better dream teamer! And just to make things more fun, a poll will be included for you to vote on which pick you would most prefer in your own dream team! Enjoy!

This week I will be looking two of the mid-priced rucks; this pre-season, many coaches spent hours deciding who would be their second ruck, and many looked at those players in the $200k – $250k price range. Unfortunately, as it is at round two, not all of these options have worked out (in fact, some of the premium options have been even worse!), so I am pitching two of the more impressive mid-priced ruckmen against each other, Mark Seaby and Todd Goldstein.

Mark Seaby:

I must admit, my feelings for Seaby through the pre-season were awfully sub-par. He didn’t look good at training and I thought he looked to lack any sort of intensity through the NAB cup. But oh how things have changed in the past two weeks – most notably in the game on the weekend (against Adelaide), Seaby really stepped up his physical presence in the contests and used his body size to his advantage, easily winning contested marks and fighting strong for the hard ball – he even laid six tackles! He reminded me a lot of Mitch Clark from 2009 where he racked up the hitouts and possessions around the ground, but was then able to drop back in the hole and win plenty of marks, or go forward and kick himself some goals. I honestly was really impressed with Seaby’s form on the weekend and believe that it was not just a flash in the pan. His other main advantage as a ruckman is the fact he plays for Sydney – the number one stoppage team in the league. Sydney’s incredible amount of stoppages leads to an increased number of rucking contests, meaning Seaby will contest more ruck contests than any other ruckman in the AFL – the stoppages won’t just help him win plenty of hitouts, but will also give him plenty of opportunities to be a key part of the play. One last gushing positive about the big man is his kick to handball ratio; rarely do ruckman use their boots to dispose of the ball, but so far this season Seaby has nearly used his boot once for every time he has handballed it – an incredibly good ratio for a ruckman!

Key Stats:

Kick : handball ratio: 1 : 1.2

Average Hitouts per game: 27 (5^th highest in AFL)

Average tackles per game: 3

Average Disposals per game: 16.5

Average Dream Team Points: 104.5

Price: $226,700

Todd Goldstein:

Probably not as much has been written about the big man from North as there has been on Mark Seaby, but it doesn’t mean that his start to the season has been any less impressive. He is still young, so does not yet have the experience, nor the history to base any real DT expectations on. However, on several occasions we have seen Goldstein step up and either play a big part in a game, or ever take it by the scruff of the neck as he did when he kicked five goals against Melbourne in 2009, earning him a NAB rising star nomination. Also this year his form has been very good, especially for a player in a losing team. His ability to not only play well in the ruck, but also at both ends of the ground is what has held him in good stead – although he hasn’t kicked any goals yet in 2010, he does have a good presence up forward (as in he’s not one of those ruckmen who have no idea where to lead etc). He is also capable of sitting in the hole down back and plucking marks as he showed against the Saints. As much as I have talked Goldstein up with his ability to play in key positions, rucking is still his specialty – he is very strong in the air and also when the ball hits the ground, which is not incredibly common for young ruckmen of his age. This year alone he has already won 36 hitouts (and so far he has played on strong ruckmen, Brogan and Gardiner), and the stat that has impressed me the most, his nine tackles! Of the more traditional ruckmen in the competition (i.e. not Naitanui), I believe that Goldstein is probably the best of the younger generation and the most likely to have some good DT improvement this year. He is capable in the air at winning hitouts, but also his work around the ground is rapidly improving, suggesting he has the ability to be a high-disposal ruckman and not just another gorilla only used at centre bounces.

Stats:

Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1.5

Average Hitouts per game: 18 (12^th highest in AFL)

Average tackles per game: 4.5

Average Disposals per game: 14.5

Average Dream Team Points: 86.5

Price: $221,100

The Decision:

I believe that at the end of the day, Mark Seaby is the better pick between these two for a few reasons; the fact he is number one ruckman in the number one stoppage team in the league is a very persuasive fact all on its own – and not to say that Goldstein won’t get his opportunities in a youth focused North Melbourne, but McIntosh is always going to be in front of him. Seaby has already presented some pretty big scores to us in the first two rounds, and he was always going to be a decent dream teamer if given the chance. Seaby only turned me off in the pre-season due to his lack of intensity, but now that he has turned that around I believe he could be a great pickup! But don’t think for a moment that he will average 105 points all year, but even if he averages 90, that would be similar to what we got from Sandilands in 2009. Right now he is a bargain for what he can offer you, so now is the time to pounce if you are ever going to! And please don’t be dissuaded from picking up Goldstein if you are keen, as I believe that he too is set for some big improvements in 2010!