Footy Tragic

When choosing a new player for your squad, you are typically targeting a player who presents good value for money. Rarely will you trade in a player who is at his peak price – often you will look to players on their way into some form, or perhaps a player who we know is talented, but simply has had some poor recent form. It is however a precarious balancing act as you want to make sure you are not trading a player who has outplayed his abilities two weeks in a row, and nor do you want a player flying down in value, only to continue the trend after you have traded him in. So it is important to discover that particular equilibrium between a bargain and a booby-trap. Therefore in this article I will compare two players of similar standing in today’s game – one is a superstar who has had an average season until late, whilst the other was an early season star before an injury put a serious dint in his price – today I will be looking at Adam Goodes and Nick Riewoldt.

Adam Goodes:

Up until a couple of weeks ago, Goodes’ season could probably be considered a pretty average one – he has rarely torn a game open, as has been his trademark in previous seasons, and he has kicked no more than four goals in a game – a feat he has only achieved once, against the Dogs. Dream Team-wise he has also been ordinary, topping 100 points only four times with scores of 100, 102, 103 and 106 – hardly anything too amazing. His one saving grace has at least been consistency – he has averaged 86 points and has dropped below 80 only three times, meaning that 80% of his games have seen him score between 80 and 110. It has been Goodes’ role that has been the main cause for his diminished form – in a Sydney team lacking Barry Hall, Goodes has resumed the CHF mantle for the team – a position that is particularly hard to play, especially in a team such as Sydney that plays most of it’s matches at the SCG – a small ground that often sees the ball kicked over the head of the centre-half forward. He has played the role well, but has far from shone, with many critics suggesting he needed a move back to the midfield to reinvigorate him. Fortunately, in round 15 this is exactly what coach Paul Roos did.

Goodes started the game against North Melbourne in the centre square and dominated from start to finish – he racked up 33 disposals (including 20 kicks), 11 marks, 5 tackles and also snagged three goals when he drifted forward late in the game. His form was stunning, and finally we saw the Goodes of old, the Goodes who has won two Brownlow medals playing through the midfield as both a ruckman and a ruck-rover. The worry after this game was whether he would start the same way the following weeks against Carlton, or whether it was just a ploy by Roos to play Goodes into some form. Fortunately, the same role was given to Goodes against the Blues and it had similar effects, with him snaring another 25 disposals, 7 marks, 5 tackles and a goal. So over the past fortnight, he has averaged 137 DT points – an incredible 51 point differential to the rest of his season!

Now not for a minute am I suggesting that Goodes will likely average 137 for the remaining rounds, but he is certainly playing in a style that will unlikely see him drop below 100 points on too many occasions through the remaining rounds. In fact, if Goodes continues his midfield role for the remaining rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to average over 110 per game. But that is precisely the issue – WILL Goodes continue to play in the guts for the remaining rounds, or is it purely a sporadic role given to him to play him into some form? In a way, it wouldn’t be a huge loss if you did trade him in and he went back to averaging around 90 points (much better than plenty of other options), but that is not the point! If you trade him now as a Sydney Swans midfielder, you want it to remain this way for the remaining rounds – and this is exactly why you would be paying a premium on him from where he was a couple of weeks ago.

I think the best way to gauge Goodes’ role for the remaining rounds it to look at the rest of the team, assessing who could possibly play his CHF role if he was to permanently move to the midfield. Firstly, the Swans main other tall options are Jesse White, Bradshaw and Henry Playfair – Bradshaw is injured and is expected back in 2-3 weeks; Playfair will likely miss the rest of the season, whilst White impressed on the weekend after being a late inclusion for the Swans. So, the other tall timber looks average, but I am pinning my hopes on the role he played against Carlton on the weekend – he played almost equal time in both the midfield and at CHF, almost like a resting ruckman. When he was in the midfield, White was the main target, whilst small forwards such as McGlynn stepped up. Also, injuries to midfielders McVeigh and Smith could see Goodes spend more time on ball – the role given to Bolton on a HFF also opens up another spot. So, in summary, I do like his chances of spending at least 50% of game time on the ball – seemingly enough to see him clock up the ton.

Despite two big games in a row, Goodes could still be a bit of a risk, but I think that because of the large amount of potential he offers, he is worth the price tag. As I stated earlier, his form at least hasn’t been shocking as a forward, but as a midfielder he would certainly be much more valuable. It has been a year of poor, inconsistent forward options, so hopefully Goodes can offer a reprieve to plenty of stressed coaches in the latter parts of the season. His price is on the up, so now is as good a time as any to pounce!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 2.2 : 1

Average Marks per game: 7.4

Average Tackles per game: 2.5

Average Disposals per game: 18.9

Average Goals per game: 1.87

Breakeven: 18

Average Dream Team Points: 93

Price: $383,700(-$51,100)

Nick Riewoldt:

After round two, when Riewoldt kicked seven goals against the Kangaroos, he looked to be the in-form player of the competition and, for the first time in five years, was coming off a complete pre-season and looked a million dollars. Then, as everyone will know, round three saw him tear his hamstring from it’s tendon early in the game, finishing him on 20 points and subsequently putting him out of action for three months and a day, all the way to round 15. He has now played two games, and understandably is still finding his feet after such a long layoff. Fortunately though, Nick is a professional and has returned in very good physical condition, just as he has done, despite injuries, in round one of the past five years. And just like these two games, he has taken some time to adjust his fitness and get to a good pace, then almost like clockwork, three or four games back and he is once again in dominating form. Since injuring his hamstring, Roo has dropped $113,100 from his starting price of over $450,000, now making him a very appealing buy. But can he recapture his form in time for DT finals?

Whilst previous years haven’t seen Nick injure himself quite so severely, he has regularly come into the season underdone - whether it be a pre-season knee injury or shoulder troubles, but he always bounces back very quickly after about 3-4 games of low game time and adjusting to the pace. In 2009, he averaged 78 for the first three games before averaging 106.5 for the rest of the season. In 2008 he averaged 75 for the first five games and 99.4 for the remaining rounds. 2007; 71 for the first four, 99.3 for the remaining. 2006; 86 for the first five and 96.7 for the full season. So going by his history, we should hopefully expect Nick back scoring over 100 in around round 18 – the week before of DT finals. Whilst it is a more significant injury he is returning from, he has at least been able to participate in full training for the past month, meaning he shouldn’t be too far behind the 8-ball, especially considering the amount of work he puts in on the track.

So far, he has played two games and they have both been reasonable -  he has played only around 60% game time in each, meaning  he hasn’t had much of a chance to get much of a rhythm going, and nor has he had much of an opportunity to score much higher than he has. He is presenting well and is still going for the kamikaze marks – his main worry looks to be kicking at goal, but the fact he was confident enough to kick one from 50 metres against the Pies shows that he is winning the mental battle. His game time should begin to ramp up over the next fortnight – normally his game time is around 90%, so he is playing well below his usual TOG, suggesting there is plenty of improvement to come. The Saints also have one of the easiest draws for the rest of the season, meaning he should have many opportunities to rip apart a game – the Saints play Hawthorn this week, then after that it’s Essendon, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide – all bottom-eight sides.

There is no doubting that Nick is a risk, but I believe that he has plenty of upside in him. Clearly he is a star player and his best is simply amazing - the query is whether he will return to this sort of form this year. Whilst I believe we won’t see him in the sort of form he started the season in, he does have enough weeks remaining to really make a statement before the Saints embark on their finals series. He will also provide your team with a good dose of x-factor - unlike most of the other high-scoring forwards, Riewoldt won’t be in too many teams. Whilst there will be a large number who jump on him over the next month, it must be remembered that plenty of coaches will be down to their last couple of trades and are probably unlikely to be able to fit him into their squad. He probably carries more risk than any other forward at the moment (Chappy included), but I also believe his upside is well and truly the greatest.

Key Stats 2010:*

Kick : handball ratio – 1.3 : 1

Average Marks per game: 8.5

Average Tackles per game: 2

Average Disposals per game: 17

Average Goals per game: 3.25

Breakeven: 131

Average Dream Team Points: 98.5

Price: $355,000(-$113,100)

*(Stats do not include his round 3 game where he injured his hamstring 20mins in)

This week I wanted to spend a bit more time discussing a theory that I broached on the site a few weeks ago - and this is the theory of trading senior players onto your bench. The thought process behind this concept is the trading in of regular best-22 players into your side priced around the $180,000 - $250,000 price point, with the intent to actually keep them on the bench than actually play them in your own best-22. This theory sounds strange at first, but let me explain - with finals fast approaching, plenty of coaches not only have very few trades left, but plenty are also looking at competing in a finals campaign with very poor bench cover. Unfortunately, at this time of year there are no rookies debuting – ideally, you’d still have a Trengove, Martin or Scully on your midfield bench, a Rockliff, Hitchcock or Henderson in your forwards and a Nason, Silvagni or Maguire in defence. But I’d bet my bottom dollar that there aren’t too many coaches with a trustworthy bench come finals time.

Personally, I have completed my team - in every spot on the field there is a player whom I consider a keeper of at least medium-grade. All my mids are premiums, as are my defenders. My forwards are OK, but in 2010 Chapman has been about the only real premium option, so I’m going to have to be satisfied with mid-tier players. However, my benches don’t read such a pretty story; In defence I am trusting in regular games to Hams and Webberley, in my forward line I have Hitchcock who is fast running out of legs and form, and my mids are appalling – Shuey and Stevens – neither have played the past two games and Shuey is unlikely to be sighted again this year.

So this is where my theory comes into play - my thought is to trade in a mid-priced player, likely underpriced due to recent injury or a brief drop in form, and this player can be used as cover if one of my best-22 players do become injured. It must be noted though that this MUST be a best-22 player you are trading in, NOT an improving rookie who still may be on the verge of selection! Whilst many players may see this trade for bench cover as a waste, personally I believe it may save you trades come finals. Essentially, in finals, a one week suspension or injury to ANY player, whether it Paul Chapman or Beau Waters is just about necessary of a trade – you can’t risk keeping a player only to be bailed out by 20 points, hence making any remaining trades redundant anyway. Therefore, in my scenario I could put Chapman or Waters on the bench for a week, knowing I have a reasonably trustworthy score to come from my mid-priced benchwarmer. He only needs to be used for a week, then the following round Chappy can come back in to score 140 points – whereas if I’d traded Chapman to (for example) Pavlich, he is unlikely to score near the realms of Chapman, meaning I would be missing out on plenty of valuable points come my next finals game.

Obviously everyone is different and this is a strategy that may work for some but not others, but I thought it certainly one worth discussing. This could be the perfect solution for coaches worried about late season resting from the top clubs like Geelong and St.Kilda. This theory also really lends itself to duel-position players. Essentially, you could pick a DP mid/forward in the midfield and then have the ability to swap him between the midfield and forward line as it suits (because let’s be honest, you surely have at least a few DP forwards!).

Below I have listed my best choices between the $180k – $250k price range. I look forward to hearing your comments on the theory and whether it applies to your team and whether it is something you may consider.

Defenders:

Chad Cornes – $246,100, Avg. 62.86 (DP Back/Mid): It is probably bad timing to suggest Chad as he missed this last week with suspension, but he should be back this week to play the Dogs. Whilst his form hasn’t been amazing this year, he is still very capable of scoring reasonably and it will also be interesting to see where the new coach does play him. Defence is his best position, so if playing here he could average about 60-70 points.

Tadhg Kennelly – $217,100, Avg. 68.42: Kennelly hasn’t been nearly as bad as his price reflects – in fact, his awfully low price is almost exclusively thanks to the early injury he sustained in round 9 which saw him finish the game on zero points. He subsequently dropped over $85,000 in three weeks thanks to the rolling average. But after scoring 119 points on the weekend he looks back on his way up.

Midfielders:

Chance Bateman – $248,500, Avg. 65.3: Chance has not been nearly as good a dream teamer in 2010 as he has been in previous seasons, almost exclusively thanks to his role as a tagger. I do still like him for his price tag however, as if he is ever let off the tagger chain he is capable of scoring some very large numbers. Also, he has had a very stop-start season, missing several games through injury and suspension, so part of his scoring woes may be able to be attributed to a lack of consistency.

Chris Masten – $228,200, Avg. 57.62: I’m actually not a huge fan of Masten as a dream teamer as he handballs way to much, but right now, and for the purposes suggested, he does present as a good option. He is two games back from injury now, so is building to a larger game-time. He has scored lowly these past couple of weeks thanks to WCE giving him much smaller roles as he readjusts to AFL pace after his injury. In the run home he should be capable of averaging around 70 points – enough to justify him for the purposes mentioned.

Forwards:

Leon Davis – $236,500, Avg. 62.69 (DP Mid/For): Missed last week with a neck injury, but should return against the Saints. He has had a poor season by his standards, playing exclusively as a forward. He just looks like he is lacking confidence in himself when the ball is in his hands – although he does look a lot like a player who may only need one big game to have a sudden re-emergence. He is certainly not in much form, but he can still score OK and his DP status certainly makes him tempting.

Brendan Fevola – $223,900 Avg. 64: Fev has battled injuries all year and was finally forced to sit out in round 14. He returned against the Saints this week and actually looked to be moving a bit better, although still dropping a few sitters and lacking much chase. Don’t expect a re-emergence of the Fev from 2008/2009, but when Brown returns next week he may find himself able to kick a few more goals when not double teamed.

There is always one position every year which simply stinks – whilst in 2009 it was impossible to find a good defender, 2010 has been a year where the forwards have stunk it up. Early season guns Riewoldt and Brown sustained long-term injuries; Gia, Higgins, O’Keefe and Sylvia couldn’t sustain their early form; Buddy keeps getting suspended; Barry Hall peaked in the pre-season, and Chapman’s hamstring has finally gone ping! They are some shocking stories for players featuring in plenty of Dream teams – unfortunately, inconsistency isn’t curable – a sideways trade looks to cause you just as much pain, but just with a different pain. There are some players now looking like spending a further four-or-so weeks on the sidelines, and at this time of year, this can be a very big problem. Jonathon Brown is now out until at least round 16, Stevie J has been given a four week ban, and Jarrad Waite three. Many coaches will debate what to do with these players, with similar worry surrounding the likes of Chapman, Higgins and Sylvia – all who should return this week (hopefully…). So I thought it may be time to propose two options hat could hopefully fill one of your empty spots for the remaining nine rounds – both are in good current form and priced under $400,000, making them somewhat gettable. I am talking about Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin and Alan Didak, two of the few forwards to be averaging over 100 points across the past three games.

Lance Franklin:

Like most other forwards, Buddy’s season has been an inconsistent one, although this has been little to do with form - through a series of separate high bumps, Buddy has spent a total of four games on the sideline through suspension, meaning he has played nine games out of a possible 13 - frustrating for any owner! Although, if looking for positives from his season, despite his time on the sidelines, he has still been consistent with his form, averaging an impressive 95.11, and only dropping below 80 points twice (a 67 and 74 in his first two games of the year). In fact, since these two games (where Hawthorn were convincingly beaten) he has averaged 102 points - second of all forwards to Paul Chapman.

So with such an ability to find himself in front of the tribunal, why should you take the punt on Franklin? Well, whilst I can’t guarantee you anything surrounding the tribunal (especially since they proved themselves a farce with the Steven Baker decision!), what I can tell you is that both he and Alistair Clarkson have made public statements, commenting that Franklin will be working hard for the remaining rounds to avoid making any contact with the heads of his opponents. We can help by simply keeping our fingers crossed. Despite his recent suspension record, as I stated earlier, his form over the past month or so has been fantastic – in fact, dream team-wise he has been the third best forward across the past five rounds, behind only Chapman and Jack Riewoldt. And just in watching him, his form has been obvious – and those who saw his game against Essendon last week will agree – he didn’t just get 130 DT points and kick five goals, but it was the way he went about it that was impressive. Unlike last year, where he spent the whole year carrying injuries and therefore out of fitness and form, he is now running at full pace and finishing off games in good condition – essentially, he is back to his dominating best.

On his day, Franklin is close to impossible to stop, and as shown in the Essendon game, Hawthorn will go to great lengths to ensure he is kept in the game - they played Beau Muston in the forward line, giving him the job of keeping Fletcher away from Franklin, meaning the less superior Hocking was given the job on Buddy - I assume this will be a tactic used more this season due to how successful it proved to be. Franklin now also has the fitness base to be able to run far off his opponent - he has the tank to allow him to spend plenty of time up of the wings - a tactic that doesn’t just wear out his opponent, but also one which allows him to rack up even more disposals through the midfield.

It is strange, but due to Buddy’s suspension record this year, he has flown somewhat under the DT radar - almost every week where coaches may be looking to bring a forward in, he has been suspended. This has left him in just 23% of teams - still a large number, but not nearly as large as seasons past where he has easily cracked the 50% mark. If he can stay on the park he is an extremely consistent player, and as he has shown on several occasions this year, he can easily crack the ton. I really like him as an option - especially with the amount of poor form and inconsistencies in the forward line this year - it could be nice to have a player whom can actually be relied upon most weeks to perform.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.7 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.1

Average Tackles per game: 3.4

Average Disposals per game: 17.9

Average Goals per game: 3.3

Breakeven: 59

Average Dream Team Points: 95.11

Price: $386,500(+$31,600)

Alan Didak:

In 2009, Didak was one of the most prolific DT scorers, with a five week stretch of games in which he averaged a huge 147.2 points (all five games netted over 120 points each). It was a series of games that showed how much DT potential Didak has – until that point he had been a very good dream teamer, but scores like that stamped him as elite. Unfortunately though, in 2010, just like most other forwards, Didak’s form (or at least his DT scoring) hasn’t been close to that he experienced last year – so far he has averaged 94.17 points a game, but has had only one game over 120 points (last week). 2010 has been more of a season of consistency for Didak, rather than sporadic mega-scoring like in 2009. Although only cracking 120 once, he has still made it to 100 on five occasions and only dropped below 80 twice (a 52 and 79).

I talked about Didak earlier in the year, blaming taggers for his form, and quite possibly, the same diagnosis can be blamed for his current scoring patterns – almost every week he gets the number one tagger, although as the season has gone on, he has proven an ability to work through the tag. This week for example, Didak was tagged by Nick Smith, Sydney’s number one tagger, but was still able to reach a respectable 89 points. Smith followed him all game very closely, but at each sign of congestion, Didak worked hard to get behind the packs and get his hand on the clearances, often losing Smith in the congestion. It is this sort of hard work that will see him continue his average for the remainder of the season.

Unlike Buddy, Didak is more a midfielder who spends occasions in the forward line, rather than the other way around. Obviously, this can’t be a bad thing – in fact, due to his duel roles he averages 1.75 goals and 23.5 disposals a game – both very good statistics. Collingwood isn’t a very bad team either – this time of year, the players you want are the ones residing in the teams atop of the ladder and Collingwood is only half a game off ladder-leaders Geelong and St.Kilda, meaning that their key playmakers (such as Didak) are the ones you want in your team.

As I said at the start of this article, I am chasing a player who is consistent. Too many forwards this year are producing scores from every end of the scale and personally I am sick of it. Didak therefore is a good choice – whilst it seems he will rarely produce the 140+ point games his 2009 season became known for, he is also rarely producing many games sub-eighty points. His form also appears to have been building lately, suggesting that he could come home with a bit of a flurry in the final rounds.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.7 : 1

Average Marks per game: 3.4

Average Tackles per game: 3.25

Average Disposals per game: 23.5

Average Goals per game: 1.75

Breakeven: 87

Average Dream Team Points: 95.11

Price: $393,300 (-$58,000)

Well, this week the topic is probably no huge surprise – with the highly unfortunate injury to young Carlton star Matthew Kruezer, I will look at some of the better trade options for those 44,586 coaches with him in their side. Due to the fact he only managed 5 points before falling with injury, his price will severely drop – likely to be as low as $300,000. Therefore, taking into account that everyone won’t have a lazy $100k sitting in the bank for a straight upgrade to Sandilands, I am going to look at some options at a few different price-points.

Aaron Sandilands: Big 211 has been the ruckman of the competition so far this year – at his towering height and newly acquired marking skills, he is close to impossible to beat for many ruckman. In the early years of his career, he was simply a tall guy who could tap the ball at stoppages, however he has greatly developed in recent years to also become a fantastic midfield option for Fremantle too. He averages 17 disposals and 36 hitouts a game, showing it is close to impossible for him to score below 80 (something he has done only once so far this year). He is very consistent and capable of big scores, making him the number one ruck target for your team this year.

Paddy Ryder: After a slow start to the year, where he averaged just 69 points for the first five rounds, Ryder has really turned his form around, averaging 106, including no scores under 90 points. Essendon have been rotating their rucks quite a bit through the forward line (however, Ryder’s time in the ruck has been up the past couple of weeks due to Hille’s injury) – this means that Ryder is often capable of quite a few disposals, as well as snagging a few goals. He has averaged 12 disposals, 19 hitouts and one goal a game – but where he really builds up some points is in his 5.25 tackles per game (over 20 DT points worth). Ryder epitomises the ideal new-age ruckman; he is tall, fast and agile, capable of running all day and essentially playing as an extra midfielder. He is the most expensive ruckman at the moment, but his current form can certainly justify his price.

Dean Cox: Coxy has had a decent year without being terrific – he started the year well underdone, returning from injuries that cut his 2009 campaign short. Because of this slow start, he averaged just 67 points for the first four rounds and subsequently dropped $93,800 from his huge starting price. Since round five, Cox has started to build some form and fitness back and it has helped him turn his scoring around. However, it should not be expected we will see the Cox of 2007-2009 return now that Naitanui is in the side – Woosha (John Worsfold) is giving NicNat the most time in the ruck, playing Cox forward more often then not. This has certainly dropped Cox’s scoring ability – he has averaged well over 100 the past few years, but in 2010 he has averaged just 85 points (94 not including the first four rounds), which includes only three scores over 100 (102, 108 and 103). His current price is probably all that he is worth, unless the long season starts to take a toll in Naitanui, which wouldn’t be surprising. The hope would be that as the season progresses, Cox can spend more and more time in the middle, pushing his price up – however, as it stands, Cox is probably the best of the mid-priced ruckman – he is no longer a premium.

Shane Mumford: I gave Mummy a bit of a wrap two weeks ago and it still stands – after averaging 100 points over the past four weeks, he has become a very viable option. He plays the game with  a huge amount of aggression, tackling hard and getting plenty of contested ball. He has been in somewhat of a purple patch since Seaby injured himself a few weeks ago – since becoming Sydney’s number one ruck he has averaged 7 tackles, 35 hitouts, and 13.5 disposals a game – all very much up on his stats from earlier in the year when he was second fiddle to Seaby. This form shouldn’t just be temporary either – Seaby isn’t due back for a couple of months and the only other viable ruck on Sydney’s list is Mike Pyke, who certainly isn’t setting the world on fire. Whilst Mumford is possibly becoming a bit pricey, I think he has the runs on the board to suggest consistency – he plays the game with huge intent, so is not simply going to drift in and out of games. I see him as just as good an option as Cox.

Kepler Bradley: Bradley is a very left-field option, but currently he is averaging the fourth best score of all ruckman, so is certainly worth discussing. He has always been a much-maligned player known for his flailing limbs and often used as a whipping boy for Fremantle fans. However, this years things seem to have changed; he came into the squad for his second game in round 9 for the suspended Michael Johnson and looked very good. He is playing as Sandilands’ second fiddle in the ruck, but also playing as a full-forward the rest of the time – the four goals he kicked against North Melbourne were the difference in round 10 and he doesn’t seem to have looked back since. He has averaged 80 points, however hasn’t scored over 100 once which is a slight worry – at least the consistency is there for him to build upon. He could certainly be worth considering, although I don’t know how many dream teamers could actually stomach trading him in (I threw up twice when writing this article!).

Other Possibilities:

Angus Graham: Having his breakout season and priced a little over $300k. His tackling was a highlight early (he averaged 7.5 for his first three games), but has only laid three since. He is really coming of age, but I worry he may score sporadically alongside Richmond’s form.

Mark Jamar: Jamar has been one of the biggest improvers of the year, although his DT scoring hasn’t been quite as impressive. I really like watching the Russian go about it as he is one of the big reasons for Melbourne’s rapid rise this year. Unfortunately though, he is averaging just 72 DT points with only one game over 100 – you would be better looking at one of the above options.

Kurt Tippett: Adelaide have been terrible this year and the delivery to this young man has far from helped his case. But at the back of everyone’s minds, surely people are questioning whether Adelaide will bounce back in the second half of the year – players are starting to return from injury and they do look OK in bursts. If they get going, Tippett’s price may suddenly jolt upwards, but is it a risk you’re willing to take?

This week I will look at two forwards who each started the season under $330,000, averaged less than 80 points for the first 6-8 rounds of the season, yet have clocked up an impressive 111 point average over the past five rounds. So perhaps I am jumping on these two dynamos a couple of weeks to late, but sometimes it is too hard to ignore players in such breakout form. The two players I talk of are Richmond’s new saviour, Jack Riewoldt, and Adelaide’s own rising star, Richard Douglas.

Richard Douglas:

It’s fair to say that the first time Douglas scored a ton against Richmond in round seven I was a skeptic, in fact I singled him out as a ‘blip on the radar’ in my Weekend Wrap. However, in all but one game since then he has scored at least 115 points, becoming Adelaide’s most consistent and in-form player. From rounds 1 to 6, Douglas was playing predominantly as a forward with cameo roles through the midfield – in this time he averaged just 63 points. However, since round seven and his more permanent move to the midfield, he has averaged a very good 111 points.

The beginning to Douglas’ career has been a slow one – he is already 23 years of age and is in his fifth year of AFL football. His early career has been played mainly on the half-forward flanks, often as a defensive forward. His strength is in-close football, a fact that has helped him to an impressive tackle average, as well as a good ability to win his own ball in a contested situation. As a junior, Douglas was a midfielder with a good ability to find the pill – something which he finally looks to be matching at AFL level. I have personally found Douglas a very one-dimensional footballer over his first few years – he is good at the grunt work, but has shown very little flair and has never threatened to rip a game open. Things have certainly changed lately, and I have been watching him closely – his addition to Adelaide’s midfield is mostly due to their depth of injuries, however I cannot imagine Neil Craig moving him from here, even if they do all return.

He suddenly has a bit more excitement to his game, winning his own ball and running it up the wings – he is breaking through packs and delivering the ball into the forward line as if this has been his role for five years, not five games. He is also yet to gain the attention of taggers – lately, Thompson has been the target, whilst McLeod and Vince also find themselves being shut-down often. One of Douglas’s more impressive stats is his tackles – averaging just two per game until round 6, he has averaged five per game since – 12 points in difference. His kick to handball ratio is also strong – nearly two kicks for every handball since round 7.

Whilst Adelaide themselves are not going very strongly, Douglas seems to be leading their now young midfield. I also don’t believe that Adelaide are as bad as their form suggests – they did get thrashed again on the weekend, but they were still competitive through parts of the game. Also, plenty of their key players are either returning from injury or coming into form, suggesting a few more wins won’t be far away. Senior players will continue to either retire or be wrapped in cotton-wool in preparation for 2011, meaning that the younger players such as Douglas are going to be left with plenty of responsibility. He is probably a bit overpriced compared to a few weeks ago (his price has risen $125,400 since the start of the year), however he is one of only a few forwards who have averaged over 100 points for the past five weeks. He will also present as an uncommon selection for your team approaching finals – he is in the fewest amount of teams of all top-20 forwards. You could certainly do much worse than him for the remaining rounds – he is certainly showing no signs of slowing down.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.5 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.8

Average Tackles per game: 3.4

Average Disposals per game: 20.5

Average Goals per game: 1

Breakeven: 55

Average Dream Team Points: 87

Price: $414,400(+$125,400)

Jack Riewoldt:

There were never too many doubts about whether Riewoldt would become a good player, but the worries were more about when – he plays in the forward line for the bottom team of the competition and has become known (in his short career) for being a very selfish player – something which certainly slows down his development. But in the past several weeks we have witnessed Riewoldt getting better and better every week. I sat behind the goals last week at Etihad Stadium as he kicked himself six goals against the Saints – and even the great defensive side that is St.Kilda had few answers for him. He has amazing strength for a player of his age – not that it looks like it – but watching Sam Fisher and Jason Blake double-teaming him, yet BOTH getting out-bodied by the much younger player proved just how good he is getting both physically and as a player.

There will be doubts about whether he can keep this form up, but from watching him he is certainly not showing any signs of slowing down. He is clearly loving his football at the moment and his current form is indicative of this. There is, however, no better example of how well he is playing then the 10 goals he kicked against West Coast this weekend – the first time a player has hit the ten-goal mark in nearly three years – the last player being Jono Brown (not bad company to be in!). This is no mean feat, especially when you are playing for the team sitting clear on the bottom of the ladder, in a position that would generally be considered one of the hardest in football. Yet in the past five weeks, he has kicked 32 goals – more than any other player in the competition, and a tally that now has him sitting two goals clear on top of the Coleman medal list.

What makes Riewoldt’s game more interesting is the way he plays his role – to put things in comparison, he is 193cm, the same size as his cousin, St.Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt – unlike many other players of his size, his ability at ground level is almost the equal of any small forward. Where most tall forwards would palm the ball down to their crumbers when unable to take a mark, Riewoldt instead palms the ball to space where he himself can run onto it to kick a goal, ala Stephen Milne. It is a freakish ability, and one that shouldn’t be taken lightly from a player of his stature.

Goals are not his only way of troubling the stats sheet, as he has also worked on many other areas of his game too this year, such as his tackling – he averages just over four tackles, nearly double his average from 2009. His disposals average has remained the same from last year, but what has improved is his kick to handball ratio – in 2009, he was running at a very good 2.5 kicks for every handball, but this year his 5.6 kicks to every handball is simply ridiculous!

It could possibly still be argued that Riewoldt is not worth choosing due to the team he plays in, but I believe that this is not an issue – whilst it would be much better for him to be playing at Geelong or St.Kilda, the players delivering the ball to him are all great users of the ball (Cotchin, Martin, Cousins), meaning it is typically placed very well for him. Also, being such a key target, they go to him much more than any other player – think of Fevola at Carlton over the past few years. He is a brilliant player, despite only being 21 years old. He will only continue to get better and is even a chance to make it to the lofty heights of his great cousin if he works hard enough. He is not as left-field a pick as many may make themselves believe, plus with forward lines being the bane of all evil in 2010, it is worth being creative – it just may pay off!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 5.6 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.75

Average Tackles per game: 4.1

Average Disposals per game: 12.75

Average Goals per game: 3.75

Breakeven: 23

Average Dream Team Points: 92.58

Price: $395,300(+$67,900)

This week has been a shocking one for Dream Teamers with plenty of injuries to popular players – the worst part about this is many of these injuries are being given within the frustrating 2 – 4 week bracket; questions begin to arise – do you trade, or hang tight for a hopefully speedy recovery? To make matters worse, there are issues in all four positions; whether you have Higgins, Podsiadly, Mooney or Sylvia up forward, Hille in the Ruck, Maguire, McLeod, Davis or McGrath in defence, or Selwood, Young or Higgins in the midfield, you may be in a spot of bother in round 12. So, I have decided to take a bit of a different angle in this week’s ‘Who’d you Rather’ article, instead suggesting three players from each position; a premium, a mid-priced and a potential cheapy (NB: Midfield prices being so excessive have meant a ‘bargain’ is around $300k). I won’t go into as much detail as usual (as I am looking at 12 players), but hopefully this could help you more than the standard two-player comparison.

Defence:

Premium:

Brendon Goddard – $458,500, Avg. 111.18: Goddard has been sensational all year, but has really picked up his form over the past three weeks (he has averaged 128 over the past three weeks). He was completely dominant against the Tigers on Friday on his way to 138 points – his highest score of the year, and eighth score over 100. Goddard biggest asset is his versatility on field – he can be switched between the midfield, forward line and in defence – but wherever he is played, it is ALWAYS in an attacking role. He is great at winning his own ball, but works very hard to space to receive the ball from his teammates – as he is the best kick in the team he is regularly on the end of passes from his teammates. He is one of the most consistent performers in the competition and could even be relied upon as a captain choice.

Mid-Priced:

Andrew Carrazzo – $365,600, Avg. 95: Thanks to a game last week where he was employed as a tagger, Carrazzo’s score is looking much lower than what his form suggests would be appropriate (it was his only game under 80 points for the season). Carrazzo has played 2010 predominantly as a midfielder, often given jobs on the opposition’s better players – however, unlike many other taggers of the competition, Carrazzo is given license to work off his man and get his own ball. He has proven to have a high ceiling with two scores over 120, however he seems more to be a consistent performer between 80 and 100 points – in fact, seven of his 11 games have been in this score-bracket. Whilst he seems to only crack the big scores on occasion, consistent defenders are very hard to come by, so this is a great trait to have.

Budget:

Nick Suban – $217,500, Avg. 55.83: Suban has only played the six games this year after injuring himself in round three – he returned to the team in round nine. This is his second year on the Freo list and he was always expected to improve this year after a fantastic first season last year where he came home with gusto. Since returning from injury, he has played only three games, and honestly only one particularly impressed, however I am basing this pick on previous promises – I really enjoyed watching him last year and so far this year he doesn’t look to have really found his feet or fitness yet. But give him a few weeks and I believe that he should be able to average 70 – 80 points in the straight home to the finals. He is a penetrating, accurate left kick and his teammates want it in his hands – I would be very surprised if he didn’t come good soon!

Midfield:

Premium:

Gary Ablett – $491,000, Avg. 125.9: I think I said it all in last week’s article, but to reiterate, Ablett is the most prolific scorer of DT season 2010 and is seemingly becoming a must-have player if he can keep his body right for the remainder of the season. He has taken a nice little price drop over the past couple of weeks thanks to some scores only a little bit over 100 and is now priced under the $500k mark, still making him one of the most expensive players in the competition. He has an amazing fitness base and an incredible ability through traffic – not only do his quick hands have the ability to grab any ball thrown to him, but his strong hips allow him to break free from almost any tackle. Has been added to the ‘untaggable’ list this year with his continued ability to break free from any opponent put on him. The complete package and an easy lock for captain each and every week.

Mid-Priced:

Nick Dal Santo – $396,000, Avg. 99.18:

Has only four scores below 95 to his name for this year, and one of the more recent ones (47 against Carlton) has really dragged his price down, despite a very good average of 99.18. Over the past two years, Dal has taken his game to much greater heights – he has worked hard on his pack work and is now one of the bigger contested ball winners at the Saints. He also now averages 3.5 tackles a game – a stat we would never associated with him two years ago. With his newfound ambition in the game has also seen him working much harder to break tags. No longer will he just give up, but continues to work very hard, especially around the centre bounces where he is becoming a clearance king – only once this year has he lost his battle with a tagger, and twice he has broken even (including against arch-nemesis Kane Cornes). A really consistent option now and very capable of pulling some big scores!

Budget:

Andrew Walker – $337,400, Avg. 81.14: Walker’s season had a massive turnaround in round 4 when Ratten stuck him behind the ball against Adelaide. It was a great DT game, but unfortunately, just the following week he injured his arm against Geelong. The 52 points he scored has helped level his price out to be very appetising. Since returning from the injury last week he has already scored a 108 and an 87 after being put back in the same sweeper position in which he racked up 134 points in round four. I think at the moment Walker is at a very appealing price and almost too hard to ignore. He has the potential to average close to 100 points in a team who looks in some good form. Ratten seems set to keeping him in this position which is a real positive.

Ruck:

Premium:

Aaron Sandilands – $383,900, Avg. 99.36: Sandi has been in great form this year and is easily the most dominant ruckman in the competition and there is no reason to suggest he won’t be for the rest of the season. Up until round eight he averaged a fantastic 107 points – scores that would even be very good for a midfielder. Unfortunately, in the past three weeks his scoring has dropped off somewhat and he has averaged only 79 points – this is mainly a reflection of Mark Harvey dropping his time of ground. Fremantle have made a conscious effort to rest the big guy so he doesn’t tire for the business end of the season. I expect that his ground time will ramp back up after the mid-season break, suggesting you will be able to get him for a pretty good price up until then. He has worked very hard this year to be clean around the ground and is averaging 17 disposals a game – very handy for a guy of his size. Add this to the 36 hitouts he should average and the one goal and you are looking at a ton almost every week.

Mid-Priced:

Shane Mumford – $324,900, Avg. 78.33: Big Mummy has really become a viable option over the past couple of weeks after two very strong games against decent sides in Hawthorn and Essendon. Over these two games he has really asserted his presence in the game, not only by winning his own ball, but also at the bounces where he has racked up over 40 hitouts in each game – huge numbers for even the best rucks in the competition (Sandi has only cracked 40 twice this season in his 11 games). Mummy’s scoring has been helped by the fact he is clearly the side’s number ruckman – fellow off-season tradee Seaby is on the sidelines until late in the year and Mike Pyke is still learning the game. The signs shown by Mumford in the past couple of games are enough to suggest consistency and not just a flash in the pan. Could be a really big improver in the second half of the year.

Budget:

Kurt Tippett – $238,400, Avg. 55: Whilst there would be plenty of upset people who would want to dispute the validity of Tippitt as a ‘bargain,’ but watching his past few games closely I believe that his expected form isn’t far away. Against the Saints he was taking huge leaps and out-bodying his opponents as well as his did in 2009 – He was well held by Tarrant against Freo, but I still thought he showed signs of improvement. Adelaide also seem to be on the improve from their shocking start to the season which will only help – whilst he’s not going to average 100 – he could become consistent enough to be pulling in scores around the 80-mark a little more frequently.

Forward:

Premium:

Paul Chapman – $477,200, Avg. 119.36: Nothing much has changed with Chappy since the article I wrote about him last week – he still has two hamstrings in tact and has still not scored below 100 points after his 112 on the weekend. After years of injury plagued seasons, 2010 is optimistically looking like it could be his first without any major setbacks. When in form – and he certainly is at the moment – Chappy is an incredible DTer – he can tackle, loves to kick and often finishes with a couple of goals. Also, amongst such a star-studded midfield as Geelong’s, he often goes through the match without much opposition attention. With his injury history he is still a huge risk, but a risk that could surely pay huge dividends if he can stay on the park.

Mid-Priced:

Ryan O’Keefe – $331,800, Avg. 93: O’Keefe suffered heavy concussion a few weeks ago and hasn’t looked very good since (until this weekend that is!). He obviously hasn’t been feeling his best as Sydney have been playing back in the forward line for a couple of weeks – obviously to help him regain touch and fitness. But his last game saw him thrown back into the midfield mix, and like a duck to water he didn’t even flinch. When in form through the midfield, O’Keefe is an awesome DTer and right now his price is very much a bargain. He could easily average 100 points for the remaining rounds without much challenge. He is great at winning his own ball, and he is excellent around the goals. If you don’t already have him, he is certainly one to consider very highly.

Budget:

Brendon Fevola – $252,100, Avg. 67: This could be bang or bust with Fevola; so far this year he has been quite poor, in fact he has leaked the second most amount of cash of anyone in the competition. Some of his scoring decrease has been to do with his slight change of roles and responsibility at Brisbane – whilst Fevola is very much a focus, Brown is still getting more of the delivery. I do however believe that a lot of his poor scoring has been to do with his groin injury, which is clearly hampering him. It has been a few weeks since it flared and then began to ease and we are starting to see a slightly more mobile Fevola in the past couple of weeks. I give him until the mid-season break, but I think some better form isn’t far off. Don’t be expecting a turnaround to his Carlton days, but an average of around 80 with occasional scores between 110 and 120 would be enough to satisfy you as your 7^th forward.

It’s about time to start getting serious – I have looked at players having a slow start, those just finding form, those who are elite but pretty cheap, but I think it’s time to talk about some big guns – guys who have been firing all season and whom those with enough cash in the bank and an appetite for the expensive have their eyes set firmly on. I am talking about a man who is averaging 120 points this year and another who is averaging 127 – the two bald superstars from Geelong: David Johnson and Tom Harley… oh wait, Gary Ablett and Paul Chapman (whoops!).

Gary Ablett Jnr:

By the age of 25 years, there is not much this little man from Geelong hasn’t accomplished: Two premierships, a Brownlow medal, Dream Team 2009… The list goes on. Essentially, he is an outright superstar and if you don’t know much about him there is clearly something not right. So far this year he has already given great value to his whopping starting price of $522,000 with an average of 127.67 and only one score under 100 points (a lowly 96 points).

He is widely regarded as the best current-day midfielder, but it is his great ability to not only be a consistent top-tier player, but also a fantastic dream teamer (not always a natural combination). He has perfected the art of handball-receives with his amazing ability to work his way through traffic. He uses the ball well enough, but he has the fitness to run all day and a freakish ability to break free of tackles, which keeps the disposal count growing. Unlike many other top midfielders in the game, Ablett has perfected the art of breaking a tag – in fact, I can hardly remember the last time he was nullified in a game. Being part of a top team, he gets plenty of support from the bigger bodied midfielders around him, who regularly block his opponents to allow him room to move (not that he needs much room). His ability to break a tag has gotten so ridiculous that some teams are not even bothering to tag him anymore, instead deciding to play a similarly attacking footballer on him so they can at least get something out of the contest (Ablett’s one slight is his lack of defensiveness). However, by no means does this adversely effect his scoring. Typically by half time, the opposition have a runner sitting on him (usually to no avail).

Whilst there are plenty of positives about Ablett, there does come some worry with spending over $500k on a player. Ablett has always had his odd injury concerns – nothing ever very significant, but the odd niggle has made him miss occasional matches in the past few years. In 2009 he missed three games and in 2008 he missed four – three of these seven games coming after round 15 in each season, a worrying stat when you rely on a player such as Ablett around finals time. Due to the high quality of the team around him, Ablett is never risked by the Cats, meaning he can find himself on the sidelines for even the most minor strain. He missed round 6 this year with a minor hamstring strain. Also, the other worry with top teams is the resting of players towards finals time – often in the last four rounds of the year, right when we are immersed in DT finals campaigns. This is not to say that Ablett is certain to find himself on the sidelines in round 21, but the concern is certainly there. There is even rumours currently circulating that he is carrying an injury, and the constant innuendo about his possible move to Gold Coast makes things even more unclear.

There is no doubting Ablett’s form, nor consistency. He has one of the highese DT ceilings in the competition, meaning he is regularly capable of scoring well in excess of 120 points – a feat he has achieved already seven times this year (from nine games!), meaning he is the perfect candidate for a regular captaincy! If you are looking at bringing him into your side, ideally next week would be the time to pounce – after two ‘average’ games in a row (where he averaged 100.5 points), his price has taken a heavy hit and will drop further next week. Potentially you could pick him up for around $485,000 at the end of round 11. Whilst I may have scared you off with his injury concerns, there is still no doubting his immense scoring ability – he is still the 3^rd highest ranked player in the competition, despite the fact he has missed a game.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 0.72 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5

Average Tackles per game: 4.6

Average Disposals per game: 34.55

Average Goals per game: 1.9

Breakeven: 153

Average Dream Team Points: 127.67

Price: $505,300 (-$16,700)

Paul Chapman:

Chappy is typically known for two things in DT circles: 1. He is an amazing dream teamer with arguably the highest ceiling in the competition. 2. His hamstrings are made from crepe paper and he will likely miss games at the business end of the season. So he essentially makes for a pretty interesting choice – part of you desperately wants him for his regular high scoring, yet the rest of you knows to avoid the temptation due to his injury history. However, if the man himself is to be trusted, season 2010 has seen his injury woes put behind him. A new fitness coach at Geelong has worked hard with Chappy and his troublesome hammys to make sure he lasts the full season with no more repercussions – and so far, things seem to be going to plan!

So far in 2010, Chappy has not missed a game and is the only player in the competition not to have scored below 100 in any of his games – an amazing feat! As far as point scoring goes, Chapman is leading all comers in DT 2010, sitting pretty as the number one player in the competition. He has had five scores over 120 points, three of which were over 140, proving his amazing scoring ability. His role in the team is predominantly as a midfielder, although he does spend a lot of time across the HFF thanks to his great ball-disposal skills and goal kicking ability. This year has seen him spend more time in the middle, with the likes of Ablett, Varcoe, Stokes and Duncan spending more time in his forward-line role. He is a very solid player and uses his body size to his advantage – like the rest of his teammates, he is very capable of busting through a tackle and takes a very strong mark. He is often used as a wide-receiver of the footy, meaning he is not often relied upon to win his own ball – however he will go in and get it when it is his turn. As is also proven in Ablett’s case, Geelong’s extremely high-possession game plan is ideal for dream team and it sees players like Chappy (and Ablett) treated to plenty of the ball, and like Ablett, Chapman is one of Geelong’s most trusted ball users, meaning he is frequently given the ball by his teammates.

Now back to the worries – as I mentioned before, Chapman claims that Geelong’s new fitness guru has cured his plight with hamstrings, so we have to choose whether to believe this or not before trading him in. The worry is, if the issues really aren’t gone, history suggests that Chapman will miss most of his games at the back-end of the year. For example, these are the games he missed for the past three years; 2009: Rd 8, 10, 19, 20, 22; 2008; Rd 9, 10, 18, 19, 20; 2007: Rd 7-9, 17-19. Get the gist? Knowing that rounds 19 – 22 are DT finals time, Chapman has missed 6 of a possible 12 finals games, including last year’s Grand Final! So if you were to trade him in, you’d want to damn well believe his word!

Despite the above facts, sometime the positives can become too hard to ignore; #1 in DT 2010 (so far), no games under 100 points, in seemingly good condition physically… And there is no doubting his ability on the football field. For those teams gunning for either a top place in their league, or for a new car, Chappy is going to cause a number of sleepless nights – do you take the risk on a player who has a poor injury history, but is the only real consistent forward of 2010 and is averaging a huge 20 points more than the second highest forward, Matthew Pavlich? Personally I love Chappy – in fact, until he ripped my Saints a new hole in last year’s Grand Final, he was my favourite player outside St.Kilda… But I had him in 2009… burned, 2008… burned. For me I think it’s a case of twice bitten…

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.68 : 1

Average Marks per game: 6

Average Tackles per game: 4.1

Average Disposals per game: 29.3

Average Goals per game: 1.4

Breakeven: 157

Average Dream Team Points: 120.1

Price: $492,400 (-$2,100)

At this time of the season it is becoming pretty clear as to which players are premium and which ones are stinkers. But are there still a few players yet to hit their straps and therefore sitting at a tasty, tasty price? Well I reckon there are still a couple, and with the likes of Waters, Nason and Silvagni peaking in price and injuries to Kennelly and Adcock, I thought I’d focus myself on the backline. Currently there are two players whose price sits them well below the odds of what they can really offer you. I will be looking at players who only this week seem to have secured what now looks to be a consistent role in their teams after plenty of injuries to teammates have seen them take on other rules. This week I will be looking at Sam Fisher and Ash McGrath.

Sam Fisher:

With the Saints loss of Riewoldt in round 3, things have been far less than consistent for all of the Saints key-position players, such as Fisher. In Fisher’s case, he has been pushed forward on a few occasions to take CHF, whilst in other games he has been forced to play a more defensive role in the backline as one of Dawson, Blake or Gilbert was moved forward. Fortunately, this week things looked to be finally clicking in St.Kilda’s  forward with the inclusion of rookie forward, Rhys Stanley – this meant that all of the Saints defenders were allowed to assume their regular roles in the backline. Listening to Ross Lyon after the game, it was suggested that Stanley did enough to hold his spot in the team, and I expect he will be given every chance to stay around and develop until Riewoldt returns in about six weeks.

Due to all this mixing around, Fisher’s scoring has been very up and down (it is also worth noting that he missed the first two games with an ankle injury and was nursed through his first few games back with a lower game time), which has obviously seen him drop in price. Fortunately though, he has not been out of form – it is simply the positions he has been played in. At his best, Fisher is a strong rebounding defender for the Saints who is also capable of taking a man (and doing a good job too!), as well as stopping the opposition’s forays forward with his strong ability to read the play. Due to all these skills, the Saints are regularly in need of him in a damaging position and will therefore be very happy to be able to line him up at CHB for the rest of the year.

For the past number of seasons, Fisher has been the Saints best rebounder, which has led to several teams working hard to shut him down (and none have been better at this than Carlton, hence his round seven score of 37!), however in the latter part of last year and through the start of 2010, Gilbert’s game has gone to another level, giving the opposition a second player to focus on. Fisher has a history of good DT, averaging 87 points a game in the past three seasons, however there does seem to be a trend with his scoring every year – in each season he has had a patch of 5-7 games that have been below par, often at the start of the season. So one can hope that rounds 3 – 9 were Fisher’s slow weeks in 2010.

The quality of defenders now around Fisher always helps him with his scoring – with Blake the best defender in the Saints unit, he will always take the opposition CHF, Gwilt is now able to take another tall while Dawson (albeit, who is very out of form and confidence) takes the full-forward/ resting ruckman. Fisher will always take a medium forward or third tall whom he will then work off. But he is still not afraid to take on the big jobs – over the years he has played on, and worked off, Pavlich, Brown and Hall, amongst others. His strongest trait is his ability to cut off the opposition’s kicks into the forward line, meaning he is regularly freed up as the loose-man in defence. This will always get him plenty of kicks and marks. When in form, Fisher can score some massive numbers too – from round 21 until the Grand Final last year (five games), Fisher averaged 113 points, and not for the first time in his career.

I believe that now things are looking back on track and settled at the Saints, scoring is going to pick up for Fisher as he will finally get to play his designated role all game for the first time this year. He has the DT history to show his scoring capabilities and his only sub-70 score of the year (and the game which has dragged his price down) was against Carlton, a team he has a very poor history against. He is a very consistent player and will typically score you between 80 and 100, whilst giving you several scores over 120. Could be the biggest bargain of the defenders as of round nine.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.26 : 1

Average Marks per game: 7.1

Average Tackles per game: 1.6

Average Disposals per game: 20.7

Breakeven: 53

Average Dream Team Points: 82.57

Price: $321,200 (-$52,100)

Ash McGrath:
I’ll say now that Ash McGrath was strongly in my dream team calculations leading into this season after his strong finish to 2009. But so far, I have been pretty happy to not have chosen him. Up until now that it is – whilst averaging 63 points up until round 8, he came out in round 9 with a whopping 140 points. Whilst some may think it was just a blip on the radar, those who watched McGrath’s finish to 2009 will agree that it was more a game we had been waiting to see than one we were surprised to see!

In football, through injury comes opportunity – we have plenty of recent stories to attest for this, such as the examples given last year in the form of Paddy Ryder and Mitch Clark when they were each given extra responsibilities in the absence of their team’s key ruckmen. Throughout the year we are bound to see a few more good examples, but right now, McGrath is the one that is painfully obvious. After spending the first number of years of his career playing as a small defender, 2009 saw his duties change at the back-end of the year. Vossy gave him more responsibility and he often became the key playmaker out of the Lions defence. After averaging a miserly 53 points for the first 11 rounds of the season, McGrath’s year was spun on it’s head when his role changed: for the remaining 11 weeks of the year he averaged a much better 86 points, which included three scores over 110 and only three below 80!

Unfortunately, at the start of this season McGrath wasn’t placed back into the rebounding position that made him look like such a potential DT star in 2009. Yet now with the injuries to key playmakers Drummond (season), Brennan (4 weeks) and Adcock (4 weeks), McGrath has been once again required to step up into an attacking role. This weekend we saw him rack up 31 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles and two goals as a rebounding defender, showing exactly what he is capable of in this role.

The one worry with McGrath is that we have only seen one game so far this year where he played this role, and we only have a little previous scoring potential to base our judgement off. However, I do feel that this role (and subsequent scoring) will be consistent and will in turn deliver some reasonably high scores. He is also incredibly unique, only in just under 6,000 teams. If he does get up and running, he has already proven he has a very high DT ceiling and should be in a reasonably consistent role. He’s still a huge smokey, but definitely one to strongly consider.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.6 : 1

Average Marks per game: 4.4

Average Tackles per game: 3.5

Average Disposals per game: 17.2

Breakeven: 23

Average Dream Team Points: 73.25

Price: $304,700 (-$4,100)

As was the theory last week, I am this week going to be comparing two very important midfielders from top-eight sides. Both started the season a little shaky, but have since well and truly hit their straps. Furthermore, both are certainly underpriced for what they offer. Each could be locked in for captaincy across the entire season and both are well-known DT heroes from season’s past as well as this one. Give up? I’m looking at my main man Lenny Hayes and DT stud, Dane Swan.

Dane Swan:

If you are a dream team coach and you are not completely in love with Dane Swan, there is something clearly wrong with you! This is a man who over the past four years has dominated the dream team competition, averaging a remarkably high and consistent 106.5 across his past four years, including a whopping average of 119 points last year! But Dane goes about his footy a little bit differently to a lot of the other DT studs – whilst there is no denying his ability as a footballer, you would be stupid to suggest he is as good as someone like Gary Ablett, let alone better than him in his Brownlow year of 2009 – but if you go by stats alone (and that is all we are concerned about in DT), Dane was the best player in the competition in 2009, a season in which he became the first player in AFL/VFL history to top 700 disposals in a season – that’s a monstrous average of 32 a game!!

So that’s enough gushing about his stats – clearly he is a man capable of fulfilling a huge role in your team – hell, you could lock the “C” onto him every week and be pretty confident he will deliver. There are several very good facts that surround Swan that make him an even more appealing addition to your team – he plays for Collingwood, a team who are sitting a game clear on top of the ladder and play a great style of high-possession footy; as far as the opposition is concerned, Swan is not the greatest player on the team – therefore taggers are likely to assume roles on teammates such as Pendlebury, Didak and Thomas; also, Swan has a great ability to win his own ball and a tank that allows him to run all day, clocking up dozens of handball-receives, all the way to the final siren.

This year has been a bit of a slower start for Swan – after scoring 143 points in round one, over his next four rounds he averaged just under 100 (99.5). Whilst if these scores came out of 95% of the competition, I’d say most coaches would be very pleased, but the fact he started the year priced at a lofty $523,500, it’s fair to say it was a hard pill to swallow for some coaches who had him locked in before the start of the season. But his past three weeks have seen him return to the Swan we know and the Swan we paid the big bucks for – he has averaged 131 points over the past three weeks and his price looks to be as low as it is going to get for the season (barring an early injury).

With Swan’s amazing DT history, and the fact he has now got the runs on the board for season 2010, he looks like an obvious choice in any midfield. He is a player capable of running all day and burns off an opponent when he does find himself with one. He has averaged five tackles and 30 disposals a game this year, showing he is right on the pace to claim a spot in the top five DTers for the year (again…).  The only question is whether you can afford him – he is the third most expensive player in the competition, but with an average of 117 points, it seems almost impossible to avoid wanting him for your team.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.3 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.3

Average Tackles per game: 5

Average Disposals per game: 29.6

Breakeven: 93

Average Dream Team Points: 116.88

Price: $484,300 (-$39,200)

Lenny Hayes:

Like Swan, Lenny has been a DT jet for a few years now, however in 2009 he took his game up another notch, averaging 109 points for the season. Although not quite as big a scorer as Swan, Lenny is massively consistent and comes $50,000 cheaper – and despite his scores not being as high as Swan’s, they are still big enough and consistent enough to lock him as Captain each and every week.

The interesting thing with Lenny this season is how he started it – in fact, it is exactly the same way he started his stellar 2009 – he came into the season with a calf complaint which saw him eased into the action for the first four rounds where he averaged 90 points and around 65% game time. Obviously, as his time on ground increased, so did his scoring. Since recovering from his injury and returning to his usual 85% TOG, his scoring has increased respectively – he have averaged 115 points in the four games since.

As a player, Lenny is a star and plays the sort of game that attracts Brownlow votes as he plays a very uncompromising inside brand of football – however he is also more than capable of spreading from a contest and providing an option. As a huge Lenny fan, his ability to work his way around a man and avoid tackles is a highlight – a talent he has worked hard on due to his average level of pace. Like Swan he can run all day and proves very hard to tag – whilst he has high-quality teammates in DalSanto, Montagna and Goddard, all of whom are more likely to attract a tag, Hayes still finds himself with a defensive player on him due to his ability to will his team across the line – not unlike Chirs Judd. But, he has proven that he is able to work off his opponents through hard running and an uncompromising attack on the ball and the ball carrier.

This is where Lenny’s game differs to players like Swan – whilst Swan makes 80% of his scoring through marks, kicks and handballs alone, Lenny uses tackling as a large part of his point scoring. This year, just over 25% of Lenny’s scoring has been from tackling – a whopping 208 points worth. This is not to say he is not a ball winner – in 2009 he averaged 28 disposals, whilst this year he is already averaging 27 per game, however his huge average of 6.5 tackles (he has averaged 8 per game for the last four rounds) it what really gives his score a nice buffer.

At this stage of the game, Lenny looks to be only getting better – he is pushing 30, but is still showing continued class and longevity at his age, despite the hard-hitting way in which he plays his football. Even though the Saints appear below par, the midfield is still getting more of the ball – it is just their forward line (or backline on Sunday night) that is dysfunctional. I have even expected Hayes to step up his workload (if that is possible) whilst Riewoldt is out and now that he is skipper – until recently I was always of the opinion that Hayes was a better leader than Roo. He may average around 5 – 10 points less that Swan, but he is $50k cheaper and also presents himself as a much more unique pick (Hayes = 5.8% of teams vs Swan = 28%) – essentially, Hayes is a hugely consistent player, and just watching him you will see that he never gives up, no matter what the score-line.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1 : 1

Average Marks per game: 3

Average Tackles per game: 6.5

Average Disposals per game: 27

Breakeven: 92

Average Dream Team Points: 102.5

Price: $443,500 (-$35,000)

Note: Don’t forget to check out Toby’s Round 7 Weekend Wrap-Up.

After spending the past few weeks looking at players on the decline, I think it’s time I looked at some players well and truly on the up. With a couple of injuries in the forward line this week and the maxing out of players such as Barry Hall, plenty of coaches will be looking at this position to make an upgrade. And fortunately, there are a couple of clear-cut options who look well and truly on the way up: Matthew Pavlich and Ryan O’Keefe.

Matthew Pavlich:

The Pav is currently the second highest scoring forward in the competition, and what has made things much better for his output is the fact he is now the star in a winning team, rather than just being a star in a team that can’t get the ball to him. It has been a fast turnaround for the Dockers from where they finished last year – they are sitting second on the ladder and have only lost the one game – a close match against the Saints. Pavlich has been a star in each game and has only dropped below 85 points once!

Pav as a player is an interesting one: most players  improve their point-scoring potential by moving to the midfield, but strangely enough, Pav’s move to the centre in 2009 brought home less than ideal numbers – despite still averaging 92 points for the year, this was eight points down on the previous two years in which he played in the forward line. This year Pav has moved back to being a semi-permanent forward and it has seen his average jump back up to 99 points per game. His role sees him playing a CHF role, which includes several brief stints in the midfield each game. And whilst the scores from last year suggest that midfield is not his preferred position, I belive that these occasional runs help to stimulate him and keep him in the game.

We saw his best game for the season on the weekend against an undermanned Brisbane defence and he looked dangerous every time the Dockers went forward. He is clearly the most used option in their forays forward, and now with the likes of Hill, Duffield and Mundy delivering him the ball, it is more often than not kicked well to his advantage. Also, unlike many other forwards this year, Pav’s accuracy on goal seems to be quite reasonable – so far this year he has kicked 24:10 – this high rate means he is more likely to convert you the 6-pointers than a whole collection of ones.

Personally I see Pavlich as the best option in the forward line leading into Round 8 – he seems to be in great form and is at a reasonable price for what he offers. He hasn’t quite had any scores yet that will blow you away, however I think the form he is in suggests he can consistently deliver a high score – much better than what plenty of the other forwards seem to be offering this year. Also, the only forward averaging higher than him is Paul Chapman, whose hamstrings simply cannot be trusted.

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.6 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.3

Average Goals per game: 4

Average Disposals per game: 18.8

Breakeven: 46

Average Dream Team Points: 104

Price: $422,000

Ryan O’Keefe:

After asking for a trade at the end of the 2008 season and then looking out of form for the first several rounds of 2009, it seemed like O’Keefe’s career was headed in a downward spiral. But fortunately, this was not so – in round 6 last year he was moved into the midfield, and in turn taking his game to a new level. He became the 2nd highest disposal winner at the Swans and in the top 10 of the AFL from round 10 onwards. He also went through a mid-season purple patch in which he top scored with a whopping 173 DT points! Ball-winning ability is one thing, and skills another – and O’Keefe has both! He finally proved himself to be an elite dream teamer in 2009, showing consistency in his game, that was paralleled with his move to the midfield.

Now in 2010, he is still being played through the midfield and fortunately he has been able to provide us with some very similar numbers to last year. One of the impressive things about his game is his consistency – last year he rarely dropped below 80 after round six and scored over 100 nine times, whilst this year he has only scored below 90 points on one occasion (this week against Geelong).

Typically, Sydney players have always been ones to avoid in dream team, however with a new attacking game-plan in place, their DT value have all gone skyward and fortunately, O’Keefe’s midfield position has been a real winner points-wise because of it. It is also always nice to be able to pick up a true midfielder in a DT forward position and O’Keefe is exactly that – he is a very hard working mid and thanks to the likes of McVeigh and Kennelly, he is rarely the first choice to be tagged.

I believe that O’keefe is a great choice in the forward line as he seems to present as being one of the most consistent dream team performers. As he has shown both last year and this year, he rarely has a poor game, and also has the potential to pull a blinder out of his hat. I think the choice between him and Pavlich is very hard – you are competing between one of the harder working forwards in the game and one of the harder working mids in the game… very tricky!

Key Stats 2010:

Kick : handball ratio – 1.77 : 1

Average Marks per game: 5.4

Average Goals per game: 1

Average Disposals per game: 24.5

Breakeven: 144

Average Dream Team Points: 101.71

Price: $407,400