Footy Tragic

Dear Footy Tragics,

What an electrifying start to DT 2010 it’s been. The excitement that comes with a new season has hit fever pitch as we pore over any piece of pre season footy news we can get hold of. We are now just two days away from the commencement of the NAB Cup, which promises to shed some light over which players we should select in 2010.

As a new season starts, we all promise ourselves that we won’t make the same mistake we made last year, or that other mistake we made two years ago. Depending on how good your memory is, you may have also convinced yourself that you won’t make that same mistake you made three years ago, or even four.

The reality is, not only do we often repeat previous mistakes made, we also find ourselves making new ones, particularly when the rules changes. Regular visitors to our site will no doubt be aware of the “new rule” in 2010. The rule where the dreaded ZERO, becomes a thing of the past.

For those not familiar with this new rule, allow me to explain it in plain English.

STEP 1 - Select two dual position players. Note that they must both be defender / forward or midfielder / forward etc. You can’t have one defender / forward and one midfielder / forward.

STEP 2 - With these two players you have selected, choose one in each position.

STEP 3 - You can now swap these two players around at any time, without using one of your trades.

It looks like the days of the donut are gone, right? WRONG!

This could possibly be the most confusing and utterly useless rule I’ve seen. The reality is there are not many duel position players I’m interested in for 2010. What about Paul Chapman, Alan Didak and Shaun Higgins you ask? All three are quality dreamteam players, but I still want them in my forward line. Why would I choose Alan Didak as a midfielder and cost myself Leigh Montagna in the process? I’m greedy, so I want both.

Let’s run a case study. I’ve worked out this new rule and 2010 is definitely my year. I’ve picked up Alan Didak as a midfielder and Shaun Higgins as a forward so I can swap them around to cover injuries. It’s Round 6 and Gary Ablett is injured. What’s more, my 7^th and 8^th midfielders are running around in the VFL this week as part of “workload monitoring” in their debut AFL season. My rock solid midfield of eight last week is now down to five, but wait, I can swap Didak and Higgins around can’t I? Yes you can, but you’ve still only got five midfielders (with one of those five being Higgins, rather than Montagna).

The next scenario takes us to the Thursday night prior to Round 22. Didak and Higgins have both being picked to play their 22^nd game of the season. As you see their names selected on the official team sheet you think to yourself, what a futile exercise that was. Why did I weaken my all important midfield to cater for a strategy that can only be used in extraordinary circumstances?

We only get four premium midfielders, why reduce it back to three? I’m not compromising my midfield to gain some peace of mind in my defence or forward line. Choose your cheap defenders and cheap forwards wisely, and then back them in to get the job done. I prefer to attack, rather than defend. I’m not costing myself Brent Stanton, Brad Sewell or Jimmy Bartel to maybe cover a zero in Round 16.

I must confess I was going use this rule to swap Andrew Moore a $125,500 defender / forward (already in my side) with a suitable defender / forward. The problem being, there is no viable option under $140,000. If you can find one, please let me know.

As you may have gathered, I’ve decided to not use this new rule at all in 2010. I see it as an unnecessary distraction, with any potential benefit being far outweighed by the cost incurred in straying from my core strategy. My core strategy is to choose 30 quality players, not 29 quality players and an average defender / forward.

My advice, don’t let this new rule cloud your judgment over which players to select. If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

As we all dissect player prices and positions for season 2010 it’s time to talk strategy. When carefully constructing our squad of 30 players, there are some common traps that many dreamteamers fall into. One of these traps is what I call, “The appeal of the cheap journeyman”.

We’ve all fallen for this one in previous seasons, the discarded reject who was going cheap and about to kick start his career at another club. As the discarded reject embarked on his 6^th pre season campaign, he told reporters on a hot February night: “I feel like I’m 18 again and I’m as fit as I’ve ever been. I can’t wait for the season to start so I can prove to my old club that I belong at this level”. While a new club can be just the change a player needs to reinvigorate himself, you need to be very careful. This is particularly important where the player at his new club is “bargain priced”.

The players I’m referring to this season are: Andrew Raines ($218,200 defender), Xavier Clark ($168,500 defender / midfielder) and Matt Maguire ($101,700 defender). I’ve received many questions about these three players already, with many dreamteams keen to add some experienced players into their side at a “bargain price”.

The problem I see is that Raines had six years at Richmond, while Maguire and Clarke both had eight years at St. Kilda. If you can’t prove yourself as an accomplished AFL player in six years or more, it’s time to face the fact that you’re not good enough. While all three players have had more than their fair share of injuries over the journey, they have also had ample time in the AFL system to make an impact.

You might argue that Raines and Clarke were not discarded by their previous clubs, but when exchanging players for pick 40 or higher in a thin draft, the message is clear that they were no longer required.

My advice is to look forward rather than back. We’ve all heard of the term “youth policy” and it’s my core strategy. Brad Sheppard from West Coast looks a very likely type and what’s more, he’s a defender! Need a cheap forward, then why not give Luke Tapscott from Melbourne or Tom Lynch from St. Kilda a chance? As for midfielders, you don’t need my advice because there is an abundance of quality kids to choose from.

Personally, I’d prefer to take a punt on an 18 or 19 year old kid with huge potential and upside, rather than flog a dead horse.

Good luck!

Dear Footy Tragics,

Over the next four weeks, I will be advising you on how to carefully construct your dreamteam for season 2010. This article is written for those of you who have consistently struggled to force your way up the dreamteam rankings due to what I would call “common mistakes made”.

One thing I noticed time and time again last year analysing the large number of teams that were submitted to me in 2009, was that many people were selecting their players in the wrong position. For example, Shaun Higgins was a very popular and successful dreamteam selection in 2009. However, given that he was available to be selected as either a forward or midfielder, why did 30% of all dreamteams submitted in 2009 have Higgins as a midfielder? Higgins should have been selected as a forward. While this may seem an obvious mistake to many of us, it was clearly the most common mistake I saw in 2009 dreamteams.

You may now be wondering; why does it matter where we select Higgins? The answer lies in your overall team make up, where we select 9 forwards and 9 backs, but only 8 midfielders in our squad of 30 players. Firstly, this break up of players seems strange to me, given the way footy is now played with most teams running a rotating midfield of 10 - 12 players. This means that approximately 50% of all AFL players are virtually midfielders, rotating on and off the ground. Unfortunately, I cannot control the make up of dreamteam so we must work around it.

We all want to fill our squads with dreamteam stars, but the majority of these stars are available as midfielders only. Dominant dreamteam players such as Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Jimmy Bartel, Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes, Bryce Gibbs, Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell can only be selected as midfielders.

What all this means is that most dreamteams end up with a first class midfield, but a shaky defence or forward line (or sometimes both). This often results in the dreaded 0, which is usually caused by either a wobbly defence or forward line. By picking a player such as Shaun Higgins as a forward we can not only have him in our side, we can also choose another 8 quality midfielders.

Good luck for season 2010!