Footy Tragic

Inside mids: 14

Outside mids: 5

Key forwards: 4

Medium forwards: 2

Small forwards: 4

Key backs: 6

Medium backs: 6

Small backs: 1

Rucks: 4

Utilities: 2

18-21: 35

22-25: 8

26-28: 0

29+: 5

Where to start? Their age composition is bizarre. Their heavy loading on midfielders, particularly inside mids is in part due to the weak pool of key position players in the draft this year. It will take years to balance this list, but they’ve got every opportunity to do that with the base of youth that they have.

Let’s look at their engine room for starters. They’ve got a hell of a lot of talent in there. It’s noticeably lacking the marquee Gary Ablett type signing, but they’ve got a chance to address that for the 2013 season. There will be a very heavy reliance on Callan Ward and Tom Scully to win the ball out of the middle this year, given their relative experience and that they’ve proven to already be proficient in that regard at AFL level. I expect Dom Tyson and Dylan Shiel to be a massive part of their midfield this year. They scream out as players ready to make an immediate impact in the AFL, regardless of their support cast. It’s possible that a couple of the elder statesmen in Power and McDonald will get thrown in there to ease the load, but for the most part I think they’ll be playing at opposite ends of the ground.

I’m really intrigued with their midfield dynamic, because there isn’t a lot of outside run there and no one who would be a strictly outside mid over 21 years of age. It reads to me that by design they’re looking to play a very tough, contested style of footy. It’s going to be a huge ask for so many young kids to shoulder that load. Only Callan Ward and Rhys Palmer have played over 50 AFL games from their core midfield group (unless McDonald or Power end up playing a lot more in the middle than I anticipate).

It’s going to be a pretty tough initiation into AFL for Jonathan Patton, Israel Folau and Jeremy Cameron. Setanta O’hAilpin has been drafted to take a bit of the heat off them and be a sacrificial lamb of sorts. I also wonder if Setanta might be able to help Folau along, considering years earlier he made the transition from a sport nothing like Australian football (remember Setanta was a prominent hurling player, not gaelic football). O’hAilpin, along with Chad Cornes will be used to plug holes extensively this year. The Giants have copped a bit for their “nursing home” recruiting policy, but I reckon Cornes will offer a lot this year in whatever role he’s required to play.

It really worries me that the key forward and key back stocks of the Giants have only three players with AFL experience (Cornes, O’hAilpin and Phil Davis). It’s a huge ask for mature aged players Folau and Tim Mohr to come in and play pivotal roles for the developing youngsters, particularly with Folau’s lack of exposure to the sport. Davis himself is still very green, with only 18 games to his name.

Folau strikes as an amazing professional and I think he’ll actually be pretty handy this year, while Mohr will be crucial to their defensive set up and by extension a good rookie option this year. Provided Davis and Mohr are fit for 22 games it will give the talented Jack Hombsch a chance to ease his way in and not be forced to play week in, week out on some of the biggest names. I expect to see Josh Bruce and Adam Tomlinson get used on third talls a bit during the year, but I’ve got less hope of seeing them 22 times – I reckon Hombsch is the young one more likely to get that all important continuity in games (keep an eye out for his thumping left foot).

While Joanathan Giles is pretty much a lock to be a bench ruckman in DT/SC in 2012 it really worries me if Dean Brogan’s body fails him, as it did so often in 2011. After a few listless years on Port’s list, Giles really hit his stride immediately after getting delisted and transferring from Central District to Sturt. His year with Sturt is what caught the eye of GWS and he genuinely looks ready for AFL action, but it’s a huge expectation for someone to come in and have the #1 ruck job without a senior game in the bank yet. Brogan really concerns me. Call me paranoid, but something doesn’t quite sit right with me when I hear: recent achilles and calf problems, 33 years old and 97kg.

Summary: It’s going to be a very tough year for GWS. I’m not sure if they’ve genuinely struggled to lure bigger names, are purely setting themselves up for the future, or they’ve got something big in store for their uncontracted signings next year. Whatever the case there’s two absolutes – they will be uncompetitive in 2012 and it will be hard for anyone to compete with them in about 3-4 years. Their youth is scary, a lot scarier than Gold Coast’s initial group. To top it off, with a couple of slow years to start off with they’ll still get early draft picks in 2012 and probably 2013.

A lot has been made of the gap between their older players and their younger players (beautifully punctuated by having not one player in the 26-28 age group), but I don’t mind it terribly. McDonald, Power and Cornes are renowned for being maniacs on the training track and will set a good example for the young and impressionable players they’ll be mentoring. I also think that trio will add enough on the field to be worthy acquisitions. I’m not sold on Brogan, but skill wise he’s definitely there and if he stays on the park is a handy pick up. As far as these guys all having one, maybe two years left in them the Giants can easily address that next year by picking up a few more guys in the same boat as them. There are always players forced into retirement a year early that will play for minimum chips.

In the future they will be a pretty tough and hard team, but their boys will need a few summers in the gym. It’s going to be a very long and frankly ugly road, but they’ll be scarily good in a few years.

Fantasy spin: Their Round 11 bye will make it very difficult to load up on Giants players, as we did with Suns in 2011. Benches in DT/SC will likely be back to two in all positions this year, so not only will you have your Giants rookies missing in Round 11, also remember that all of your Crows, Lions, Roos, Eagles and Bulldogs will be out too! I could go on for a very long time here, but for now I’m just going to go with a few key players that stick out to me.

Dylan Shiel: Will be priced cheaply, as he was a 17 year old they were eligible to pre-select at the end of 2010, but he would’ve comfortably being a Top 3 pick this year. Unfortunately I didn’t see him play in 2011 at all, but on his exposed 2010 form I would’ve had him as a genuine chance to have been the #1 pick this year. He’s a tough as nails inside mid with elite agility and pace. His kicking is neat, but not super. I see him as a more athletic version of this years #3 pick Dom Tyson. As with all kids track their pre-season, but for me he’s the biggest lock on their list.

Dom Tyson: I just touched on it a bit in Shiel’s wrap, but Tyson isn’t a super athlete, but he is just a bloody good footy player. His work around stoppages is his biggest asset and he’s ready to jump in at AFL level. The drawback will be his hefty price tag being the #3 draft pick, but I can see him scoring enough to justify the cost.

Adam Kennedy: A proficient ball winner at TAC Cup level, who was quite unlucky to have not being drafted or rookie listed in 2010. Having being through the draft process he was available for GWS to either sign on or on trade. GWS (and Gold Coast the year before) both had a heavy focus on trading these eligible players, but they must really like Kennedy to have held onto him. The knock on him in 2010 was his undamaging kicking, but he went from a low 60% kicking efficiency to just over 70% in 2011. He improved a lot and could be a bit of a smokey.

Devon Smith: I think he’ll end up making it as a midfielder, but I can also see him getting first crack at small forward for the Giants. He’s a tenacious little player, who isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty. He’s got very good goal sense and has an extremely high kick to handball ratio (think Kevin Bartlett). He’ll be a little over base price after getting picked up at #14, but keep an eye on his NAB Cup.

Israel Folau: Some weeks he’ll be completely outclassed by the experienced opponents he’s bound to get, but I don’t think he’ll be putting up Karmichael Hunt numbers in his first year (in a good way). He should be good for a goal or two and with his tremendous athleticism and thirst for physical contact I’m looking forward to seeing him smash a few blokes in tackles.

Jack Hombsch: He’s got a massive left foot and I’d love to see the Giants try and utilise that out of defence. He’s not likely to get as many big jobs as Tim Mohr, Phil Davis, Chad Cornes or Setanta O’hAilpin, but I still think he’s good for a lot of games this year.

Tim Mohr: I don’t think he’ll get big numbers, but I’d be surprised if the Tasmanian wasn’t playing every week. He had a breakout year with the Casey Scorpions, winning their best & fairest from a key defensive post.

Jonathan Giles: The only worry for me is if they open Round 1 with Brogan and a pinch hitter like O’hAilpin. If they play two genuine ruckmen Giles will be a very popular bench selection, but he and Brogan aren’t the most versatile rucks going around. I can’t really see either doing much damage resting in the forward line. Incidentally, I will be very curious to see how Sheedy deals with the sub rule, is has become frowned upon having two genuine rucks in the same side – it wouldn’t be like Sheedy to do things conventionally though.

Chad Cornes: Go on, I dare you. He’s only priced at 66.8 for DT and 69.8 for SC! His body will be fresh after playing most of last year for Glenelg. This one is a rather facetious suggestion, but you know what…Kristian has had crazier thoughts, like Rhys Palmer in 2011. I’ll give you the tip…Kristian is considering Palmer again in 2012.

WESTERN BULLDOGS LIST ANALYSIS

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 7 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 8 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 5 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 3 (3.1)

Key Back: 5 (4.4)

Med Back: 5 (7.0)

Small Back: 1 (1.6)

Ruck: 3 (3.4)

Utility: 0 (1.1)

18-21: 13 (12.2)

22-25: 13 (16.9)

26-28: 6 (7.3)

29+: 8 (5.8)

My final list assessment for this year is the Western Bulldogs. I’ve read and heard a lot of people write them off for season 2012, but I have no doubt, looking at what they have to put out on park in 2012, that finals, at least internally, will be an expectation, especially with a change of coach.

In terms of the future, there is an obvious gap in talents between the age brackets of 18-26 and 27+. Most, if not all of the Bulldogs best players are not young anymore, with the Griffen and Cooney the main exceptions, but Cooney’s knee troubles are a really big concern going forward.

Even though the Dogs are on the wrong end of the age bracket, most of their senior players still have at least two or three good years in them, which should see them still be up and around the mark of the top eight for a years to come.

Rodney Eade was pretty good when it came to blooding the kids, so we’ve seen what a lot of them can do, namely Wallis, Liberatore, Dahlhaus, Jones and Howard.

I really do like the Bulldog’s younger players, but it’s a question of whether they can become quality AFL players by the time the likes of Boyd, Cross, Giansiracusa, Lake, Morris and Murphy depart. I think the future is pretty bright for the Bulldogs, but there could be a couple of lean years before they’re really challenging for a flag again with that distinct age difference in their list.

In terms of current list structure, the Dogs are balanced. The one gaping hole they have is that they don’t have a genuine key forward over the age of 21, so that will obviously pose problems for them against the better teams in the competition and if they were to make the finals. The talent there is impressive, however. I’m a big fan of Liam Jones, but I see him more as a lead up centre half forward than a big bustling deep forward and Matthew Panos had a great season in the VFL.

The Bulldog’s mediums to small forward stocks are really healthy, but the problem is the output. Luke Dalhaus was a revelation off the rookie list last season as well as Andrew Hooper who provides a handy little presence up forward as well. Those two guys, Dalhaus in particular will be long term players for the Bulldogs in the forward line and there is still Pat Veszpremi who has never gotten a good run at it at AFL level, but he showed good form in the VFL late last season.

Daniel Giansiracusa is now the senior player up there without Barry Hall, and he enjoyed arguably his best season for the Dogs in 2011, showing some excellent goal kicking form. Jarrad Grant was one of the disappointments of the competition in 2011, after having some what of a break out season in the year previous. He can be such a dynamic, unique player when he’s at his best, but it looked like he lacked confidence in a big way, in which hopefully the new coach can no instil in him. Shaun Higgins is one of my favourite players in the competition, but he is constantly out of luck when it comes to staying on the park. His form suffers because of a lack of continuity and I think he was fairly harshly criticised during the year by some Bulldogs supporters and general media people. Playing as a high half forward is one of the most difficult positions to play on the ground, and when you’re not fit, it’s really hard to get into games and remain consistent during the course of a match. Ryan O’Keefe is probably the best exponent of the high half-forward position we’ve seen in the modern era, and you’ll find it’s really hard to find many quality players of that ilk. Shaun Higgins is one of them, but he needs to get his body right, which I’m sure he will. He still has lots of footy ahead of him. Zephanier Skinner is the one guy that the Dogs can build a forward line around if he reaches anywhere near his potential. He has a really good attitude and seems happy to be at the Dogs, so I have little doubt he’ll make the grade.

The Dogs’ midfield is very impressive. When you have Boyd and Cross as your two genuine hard nut ball-winners, complimented by tall, athletic runners in Griffen and Cooney, it’s a seriously dynamic quartet. It’s unfortunate we’ve probably seen the best of Adam Cooney, but Ryan Griffen is still yet to reach his full potential in my opinion. Christian Howard is the kind of guy that will not exactly replace Cooney, but he’ll become a very damaging left-footed wingman, in the mould of a fully fit Clinton Young. You then have the right footed Jason Tutt on the other wing that will just run all day, knock up getting the ball and kick goals. It’s a great duo to have for the future, especially as they are both so damaging by foot and how they run to the right places, key assets to the modern day wingman. Justin Sherman is the guy that provides a bit of ‘X-Factor’ to the midfield, but he is just too inconsistent to be relied upon each and every week, and it will be interesting to see how he fits into McCartney’s plans, and you could say the same for Nathan Djerrkura. Last but certainly not least, the Dogs now have three, very solid, young inside midfielders to build their future side around in Tom Liberatore, Clay Smith and Mitch Wallis. Smith is a potential future captain for the Dogs who gives absolutely everything to his team’s cause.

The Dogs scored a really solid get in the draft with pick 39 in Michael Talia. Whilst I certainly didn’t think he was the best key position defender in the draft, at pick 39 he seemed to have been a bit of a bargain. Heading to the Bulldogs will be good for him, as he won’t have to be thrown into the deep end from day one, and he can develop in the VFL with a strong Williamstown side around him. A fully fit Brian Lake completely changes the dynamic of the Bulldogs side, and they’ll really need him up and about in 2012 to have a good crack at the top eight. Tom Williams, much like Shaun Higgins, needs continuity. He’s a really good centre-half back when fit, but that is a pretty rare sight these days. With Williams, Lake and Morris all on the park, the Dogs look great. I liked what I saw from Markovic this season and Mulligan showed some promise in his limited games.

What the Dogs do need is some quality small and medium defenders in the upcoming drafts to fill the holes of some of their aging players. Easton Wood is one answer off half-back, but they need another one of his type and at least one more back pocket. Andrew Hooper potentially could be the answer there.

Finally, the Dogs need one more developing ruckman for backup. Minson, Roughead and Cordy are a handy trio but I’d anticipate they’ll rookie one more for insurance.

SUMMARY: The dogs have a pretty balanced list position wise, but have a big gap between their aging players and younger players with nothing in between. It’s hard to fix that now, so they’ll have to invest in the draft and get the best possible young talent in. I think a key forward, a ruck, and running defenders should be on the list in the upcoming rookie draft on Tuesday.

FANTASY SPIN: I think Matthew Panos will play lots of games in 2012, so look to put him on your forward line bench. Mitch Wallis is a ball magnet, and should get much more opportunity as well. I’ll be looking closely at Brian Lake as well if he can have a full pre-season.

Hit me up on Twitter! ‘KristianPisano’.

Ages based on what the player will turn in 2012.

Inside mids: 9
Outside mids: 6
Key forwards: 5
Medium forwards: 5
Small forwards: 2
Key backs: 3
Medium backs: 8
Small backs: 0
Rucks: 2
Utilities: 0
18-21: 10
22-25: 17
26-28: 7
29+: 6

After my last two articles have been pretty savage (Port and St.Kilda) it’s going to be a nice change of pace to have a look at a list in good shape. The first thing that stands out to me about their list is the spread of their oldest age bracket. They’ve got a good core of old players with premiership experience, who are all quite different to one another. With good kids coming through this allows them to balance a competitive team for the next couple of years with a good chance at smoothly transitioning into the next generation.

The first negative that stands out to me is the lack of quality outside midfielders, which I think they need a bit more of considering they play so many of their games on the wide Subiaco. They’ve definitely got a tough, inside brigade, which is where finals footy is won, but as far as outside speed there’s a big gap between the close to retiring Andrew Embley and future gun Andrew Gaff.

Most of their emerging inside mids are one paced – only Shuey has a bit of toe and he’s a fantastic long term replacement for Kerr with his speed and toughness. Koby Stevens is one that I rate very highly and would love to see him get more opportunity (and maybe he will with Ebert out of the depth chart), not that he helps them with any sort of pace.

As for key forwards I struggled a bit with Jack Darling and Scott Lycett. Darling has started his career more as a third tall, but I’m pretty confident he will develop into a key target when Lynch moves on. What a magnificent find he has been! Josh Kennedy is obviously already a known quantity and has a lot of good footy ahead of him.

Lycett had a very good first year of development and was impressive in his one and only AFL game. We all rave about Cox and Naitanui these days and it’s widely accepted that Nic Nat will take the reins after Cox retires, but I think it’s equally important to recognise that Naitanui and Lycett could form just as potent a duo for a much longer time than Cox and Naitanui’s careers intersected.

Mark LeCras is one of the best medium forwards in the league, being a genuine threat in the air and on the ground (plus his ability to move into the midfield). Mark Nicoski is an interesting one though. He reinvented himself this year and played a pivotal role in West Coast’s resurgence this year with his physical presence in the forward line and that’s one area I’m not sure they’ve got that one covered moving forward. McGinnity or either of the Selwood’s probably have the physical presence to do it, and it can’t be forgotten the amount of physical pressure Darling provides in that forward line.

Josh Hill is an interesting acquisition and I’m not exactly sure where he fits in. He’s played as a medium forward, defender and outside midfielder for the Bulldogs. I’ve got him as a medium forward who can push into the midfield, but more than anything I think he’ll be a depth player with talent worth taking the chance on.

With Darren Glass nearing the end I think it’s important for them to get a developing key defender into the system. Eric Mackenzie goes alright, while Will Schofield is best suited as a third tall, but playing key isn’t out of the question for him. Mitch Brown battled to keep his spot in the team this year and will need to get some continuity in his game this year after having a tough run with injury lately. All considered, now is about the time to start planning for life without Glass.

I feel that medium backs, and in particular rebounding defenders is a strength of theirs. Shannon Hurn is the most damaging kick in the league and I reckon Ashley Smith has a leg on him with plenty of potential. Between developing Brad Sheppard and Jacob Brennan they’ve got a bit more potential to add to their rebounding stocks, though those two would be more likely to punish with their run than their kicking.

Summary: It’s a well balanced list and they’ve only got two live picks in the National Draft. I’d like to see them target a young tall defender and a bit more pace in the midfield. They’re in a good patch at the moment, but I just don’t think they’re quite going to get there with this current crop. The kids are good and there’s a clear succession plan for their older players, but their 26-28 only has Priddis and LeCras as genuine top quality, with Butler, Waters, Rosa and A.Selwood as solid citizens (don’t get me wrong, Waters is one of my favourite players in the league). I reckon immediately after any upcoming retirements there’s a slight vacuum before their kids take over. I think they’ll stay up there and competitive until their young ones are about 25-26 when they could really challenge.

Fantasy spin: I reckon there’s a younger brigade of rucks these days that will create a market shift away from Dean Cox, and I reckon Nic Nat is a bit underrated in those discussions (amongst Leuenberger, Goldstein, McEvoy etc.) He might still be 12 months off, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a break out fantasy season in 2012.

Koby Stevens should benefit from Brad Ebert returning home to SA. He only played two games last year and both were as a sub, so he only averaged 18 in DT and 25 in SC. Chris Masten is another who was used as sub quite a bit, but busted out a 140 and 115 in DT in the last two rounds of the season with a corresponding 182 and 137 for SC. I’ve never actually rated him as a fantasy player…to be honest, I’m still inclined to call him fools gold if you’re looking at those scores, but he’ll only be priced at about a 50 average, which could make him a solid mid priced option.

SYDNEY LIST ANALYSIS

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 9 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 6 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 3 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 3 (3.1)

Key Back: 4 (4.4)

Med Back: 4 (7.0)

Small Back: 2 (1.6)

Ruck: 3 (3.4)

Utility: 1 (1.1)

18-21: 8 (12.2)

22-25: 15 (16.9)

26-28: 8 (7.3)

29+: 7 (5.8)

Three teams to go in our list analysis series, which brings us up to mighty Sydney Swans.

In the pre-season I had tipped them to make the top four, and while they didn’t get there, they made a genuine threat to making the preliminary finals again. Their consistency amazes me, and every time they got knocked down, they come back up, ten fold. I really rate their list, and looking at it now, it’s arguably in better shape than when it was back in 2005 and 2006, from an age and balance perspective anyway.

The thing that is so admirable about the Swans is that they never bottom out. Their drafting and dare I say thanks partially to Phil Scully in recent years, has been top notch, and of course the recruiting of recycled players each and every year to fill list needs is beyond amazing. They did that again this trade period, needing outside midfielders and a key position forward, so they got Mitch Morton, Tony Armstrong and the best get out of them all in Tommy Walsh. They got all of those guys for basically nothing, somehow.

Sydney’s midfield would have to be the most under rated in the competition. You look at the seasoned veterans in isolation in Jarrad McVeigh, Jude Bolton, Ryan O’Keefe and Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn and that is a damn good five to have. Then you take into account their young guns, which are all VERY good in Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Keiran Jack, Josh Kennedy, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta and Craig Bird and you have, seriously, one of the best midfields in the competition. There are not many that can stack up against that, and it’ll get better, even though Goodes, Bolton and O’Keefe are ageing, we haven’t even been close to seeing the best of the other guys, in particular Gary Rohan and Luke Parker.

Their rucks are fine, with all three very capable of holding down #1 spot. Mumford is the obvious star, but Pyke has shown outstanding improvement. Maybe they could make do with one development ruckman for the future, but it’s not really a priority considering those guys are still no where near retirement.

Their medium to small backs are also very good. Nick Smith is one of the best back pockets in the game right now, and his 2011 season went largely unnoticed. I love Nick Malceski, but he had a really down season. I have no doubt he’ll be back bigger and better than ever, as I think at his best, he’s definitely in the Swans best 22. Mattner is a great stopper and rebounder and Shaw had an outstanding season, which also went under the radar as well.

The Swans key backman, are again, underrated. Ted Richards has become a mighty fine player, Grundy is a very solid centre half back, and Alex Johnson in just his first season, cemented a spot in their line up. I’d draft another key back to be honest, just to be safe, but there are certainly no panic stations.

The medium to small forwards contain lots of talent as well. Mitch Morton is a good addition, and I suspect will play lots of games. Jed Lamb could honestly be anything, he was just about my favourite player in last year’s draft, and I really hope he gets a decent run at it in 2012 to show everyone what he’s capable of. Dennis-Lane seems to struggle when making the step-up to AFL, but he has time on his side and plenty of talent. You also have guys like McGlynn, Goodes, Rohan, Jetta, McVeigh and O’Keefe who are all more than capable forwards.

Finally, the Swans have landed themselves one of the best key forwards in the game in Sam Reid. He’ll be so hard to stop in a few years with those vice-like hands. He needs to work on his set shot kicking though. Tommy Walsh is a brilliant get, and he and Reid will prove to be an awesome duo.

SUMMARY:

I love the Swans list. They are incredibly under rated, and if you think they’ll slip out of the eight, well then think again. They’re not going anywhere, anytime soon. In the draft, I’d really just focus on getting development talls in, for example possibly one ruck, one key back and one key forward. Their midfield is not a priority at all. 

FANTASY SPIN:

I really can’t see any ‘must-haves’ for the Swans next season as they’re such an even team. Keiran Jack could step up into the 100+ average category as well as Hannebery. Watch out for Lamb to get some games as well.

St.Kilda have a fair few problems with their list and the following isn’t going to make for pretty reading for Saints fans, whether you agree with me or not.

Ages based on what the player will turn in 2012. League average in brackets.

Inside mids – 7 (7.6)

Outside mids – 7 (5.8)

Key forwards – 4 (3.5)

Medium forwards – 1 (3.8)

Small forwards – 5 (3.1)

Key backs – 1 (4.1)

Medium backs – 8 (6.5)

Small backs – 1 (1.6)

Rucks – 1 (3.2)

Utilities – 1 (1.1)

18-21 – 9 (11.8)

22-25 – 8 (16.1)

26-28 – 11 (6.9)

29+ – 8 (5.6)

As soon as Kristian and I went through each clubs list one afternoon in October I had a fair idea that whoever was writing about St.Kilda was going to be full of scorn. It actually surprised me how much worse they look than I was expecting, so I’ll be taking to their list with the same machete, as they have internally for the last few years.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s still a good short term future for the Saints and I reckon they’ll be competitive for 2012 and possibly even 2013, but I just can’t see how they won’t be in a world of pain in years to come as their current stars finish up.

The age composition of their list is an absolute disgrace. There’s no two ways about it. As it stands pre-draft they are the only club to have more over 26 players than under 26. To put this into context the next closest to this sort of mark is Sydney, who have seven more under 26 than over.

Obviously they will address this during the draft…but so will every other club. Where most clubs right now are sitting with about 13-15 more under 26 year olds, the Saints are -2 (it was -3 until Dawson walked out). One thing I will say in their favour is the Saints have seven picks (not including the one allocated for Blake), which is more than anyone, apart from GWS.

They’ve cut pretty deep into their 22-25 year olds, delisting Cahill, Smith, Gamble, Heyne, Johnson, while trading Walsh and Lynch. The big reason for their terrible age profile is their drafting from 2008-2009. From their ten national draft picks in those two years only Rhys Stanley and Nicholas Winmar remain, both of whom are under pressure in 2012 to keep their spots on the list.

There was not much wrong with their 2007 draft, but they only had three picks (McEvoy, Steven and Fraser Gehrig). Even within that you see part of the problem. It’s long been speculated that Ross Lyon had a lot of interference with recruiting mature aged players like Gehrig, Polo, Gamble, Pattison, Jesse Smith and Begley (remember that guy?!) I’m just listing all the mature aged players they’ve taken in the national draft since 2007, so if there’s one or two that Lyon wasn’t pushing for it’s not exactly absolving him of too many terrible calls.

Two quality kids in only three years of drafting is far too low of a hit rate and will leave them with last years decent looking draft crop of Cripps, Crocker, Ledger, Siposs and whoever they take over the next few years to replace aging guns like Hayes, Montagna, Riewoldt and Fisher. I left Milne out of that group because he’s a specialist player that they have specifically recruited well to replace.

As for their positional breakdown, I don’t want to harp on about their lack of key defenders. After Zac Dawson walked out there was a fair bit made of that issue and they will obviously be in trouble there. Jackson Ferguson is a project player from NSW, who has a fair bit of development left.

Medium defenders Blake, Fisher and Gilbert are experienced players who might be forced to play taller than what best suits them, as youngsters Ferguson, Simpkin and Archer try their hand. Simpkin is a little undersized, but he’s very competitive and would be the kid I’d love to see get a crack at it. I’d be very surprised if they didn’t look to draft a young state league player with decent performances on the board, such as Kyle Hartigan or Nathan Blee. Goddard is so versatile and competitive, but despite him having the capability of playing key defender (or pretty much anywhere), you’d be hoping they don’t use his creativity in that role.

Medium forward is another huge hole in their list, with Siposs the only I think is best suited to that position. They cleared out a heap of very average medium forwards this off season – Gamble, Heyne and Lynch – there’s nothing wrong with getting rid of players like that. I find medium forwards to be a microcosm of their list, in that they’ve had a massive clean out in the 22-25 age bracket because the quality simply wasn’t there.

Their key forward stocks are very reliant on the two elder statesmen Riewoldt and Koschitzke. I’m still not sold on the super athletic, but not footy smart Rhys Stanley and athletically challenged, but more natural Daniel Archer. They’re obviously still in good hands with Riewoldt and Koschitzke, but they need to try and find another option or two. It’s most unfortunate for them that Tommy Walsh requested a trade, because he’s a good prospect that was developing very well. I couldn’t understand why he wasn’t blooded for games last year under Lyon…but I guess he’s not held accountable for that anymore…

They made a very smart move when they traded for pre-listed players Ahmed Saad and Terry Milera from GWS to not only fill some of the void in their 22-25 age bracket, but get a couple of creative and lively players.

I must admit to not being the biggest Saad fan in the world, but my knocks on him are things that can be coached (very one sided and selective defensive efforts) and his talent makes him a smart acquisition to one day replace Milne as their small forward. The two could work well in tandem this year.

Milera has developed from being just a goal sneak to playing a fair bit on the wing for Port Magpies in 2011. I think he’ll be best suited as an outside mid at AFL level, who can also be effective up forward. The Saad and Milera move is a good sign that the new faces down at Seaford are looking to be proactive, because of their past recruiting errors.

To be honest, small forward and medium back are about the only two positions that aren’t a priority for the Saints. They need to get developing inside and outside mids and a young ruck or two to develop. The full blown rebuild starts now and their new youth development academy sounds like an exciting concept to hopefully minimise an entire age bracket going by the wayside. Whether it was recruiting or player development, I’m not to say, but the Saints have a new recruiting team headed up by Tony Elshaug and a very impressive sounding new development academy.

Summary: While their older talent is still around they’ll be fine. There’s a massive gulf in talent after Goddard and Dal Santo. Those two have a lot of footy left in them, but after that there’s not a lot of scope for top end talent within their list – McEvoy definitely, Steven possibly, Armitage at a stretch (and a bit too early to call on the 2010 draftees). I really can’t see how they don’t have a massive slide down the ladder in a couple of years with very little 22-25 year talent pushing up.

Fantasy spin: The guns are still there. Goddard is still probably the best defender in fantasy. Lenny Hayes will get a huge discount and he will be very tempting. He’ll be 33 next year though and with a year out of the game it’s a risk, but Lenny is one of the very few in the AFL you could trust with that adversity.

Dal Santo proved to be a very viable DT option last year after mostly being a SC specialist and I like him for 2012. His rise was at the expense of Montagna to some extent and I’m still a little wary of his super elite form returning (but still being solid). I worry that Riewoldt’s best days are behind him. I’m never a fan of a player being considered underpriced two years in a row, because the line is a bit too close to decline for my liking.

McEvoy is a ruck option in 2012 and should be for many years to come with a new and impressive breed all around 23-26 years of age. Milera and Saad are definitely ones to track in the pre-season – at this very early stage I’m more keen on Milera as a fantasy option with Saad being a bit more impact than high numbers.

RICHMOND LIST ANALYSIS

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 8 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 3 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 4 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 1 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 3 (3.1)

Key Back: 6 (4.4)

Med Back: 5 (7.0)

Small Back: 1 (1.6)

Ruck: 4 (3.4)

Utility: 1 (1.1)

18-21: 10 (12.2)

22-25: 20 (16.9)

26-28: 4 (7.3)

29+: 3 (5.8)

So we’re finally up to my beloved Tigers…..

When I’m asked about our chances next year for a finals appearance, I really struggle to come up with a response. My heart says ‘yes’ we can do it, surely we can improve from our eight and half wins in 2011 (with losses against Port Adelaide and Gold Coast), and snaffle a few extra wins to enter our third finals series in my life time. My head is still unsure. Glancing over that table without really going into too much detail, the Tigers are still young, really young.

Richmond’s best players, bar Chris Newman, Nathan Foley, Kelvin Moore when fit, and to a lesser extent Daniel Jackson and Jake King are all between 18 and 25 years of age. To add to that, hardly any of those players in that 22-25 year age are actually even close to 25 excluding Ivan Maric (25) and Brett Deledio (24).

I just can’t see how the Tigers are going to match it physically against the likes of Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast, Carlton and Hawthorn yet, and their performances against those opponents in 2011 highlighted that fact. History says you don’t have to beat the top five teams though to make the final eight, so there is hope, as the Tigers were generally competitive against the rest of the competition in 2011.

Anyway, let’s break down the list. In my opinion the four most important positions on the ground are the inside midfielders, the key forwards, the ruckman, and the key defenders. If you have depth in those areas, you’re on your way. The Tigers don’t necessarily have the required quality in those departments just yet in an AFL sense, but the talent is there.

I’ll begin with the Richmond midfield. It’s amazing to think Dustin Martin only just turned 20. I included him in the inside midfielder bracket for his clearance capacity. He has an extremely dangerous outside game as well, but when selecting my player categories, I gave the ‘benefit of the doubt’ to the inside bracket. You could go as far as saying Dustin Martin is a utility, as he’s used at deep forward so often, but as he develops more of an engine (scary), permanent midfield is his home.

Brad Helbig is a second year player in 2012, and while he played his few debut games at half forward, his role in the future is in the guts. He’s come back to the pre-season in pristine condition so a midfield spot could be closer than some think.

Trent Cotchin is my love-child (for those who don’t know), and he can do no wrong. Again, like Martin, he has a deadly outside game, but his clearance work has to be seen to be believed. I honestly think his season was grossly under rated by the general football public. He polled very well in the Brownlow, took home the Jack Dyer medal, and led the competition most of the season in centre clearances, contested possessions and clearances per game (on averages). Cotchin is also great when rested up forward as he reads the play better than anyone and can take an over head grab.

Overall, the Tigers inside midfielders honestly look great, especially when you have the likes of Cotchin and Martin in there. People forget just how good Nathan Foley was/is, and with another injury free pre-season under his belt, he should be back to close to his best. There are also three terribly maligned players (mostly by Richmond supporters) in there, namely Shane Edwards, Daniel Jackson and Shaun Grigg. Shane Edwards, is terribly vital to the Tigers, even though his kicking leaves a bit to be desired sometimes. He is the perfect role player on the opposition’s best speedy midfielder, a type of player who has cut up the Tigers on countless occasions in the past. He shut down those players this season, and no one would’ve even noticed (well no one did, in fact). Shaun Grigg performs a similar role, but he has the height. I must admit, I was sceptical of his recruitment initially, as I didn’t rate him by foot, but to be honest, I didn’t noticed Grigg much this season, so that must be a good thing. He sure does know how to find the footy though.

Things on the outside for the Tigers don’t look as rosy, and with a really good guess I reckon that’s where picks 15 and 26 will be invested. Reece Conca is genuine quality, but he is still only 19 years old. Daniel Connors has all the talent in the world, and he’s lucky I actually classified him as a midfielder, but I think that’s where his best position is. I’m hoping this year’s trade period is the wake up he needed, because the talent is there, and on paper he’s in the Richmond best 18 every day of the week. Jeromey Webberley is an honest toiler, and we’re really yet to see what he can do, as he was the substitute for nearly all of his few games this season. What I do know is that he’s a bit too good for VFL. What I must say is, the lack of outside midfielders really isn’t a disaster. Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Brad Helbig have really good outside games, and Brett Deledio is just sitting there as a utility, mostly on the half back flank, which is slightly handy. Robbie Nahas pushed up the ground a lot in 2011 and the other players that could fill a ‘wing’ role are Bachar Houli and Chris Newman (I’d love to see the skipper in the midfield).

The key forwards for the Tigers look decent. Jack Riewoldt and Tyrone Vickery are the future. Vickery’s improvement was huge this season, and I won’t be surprised if he is the Tigers main spearhead next season, with Riewoldt playing a bit more up the ground and using his creativity. Ben Griffiths could be absolutely anything, and he is the genuine unknown quantity on the Richmond list. He could be a top five player at Richmond on talent, but it’s a question of whether injury will permit. You could also make cases for Jayden Post and David Astbury as key forwards, but I think short term they’ll be looked at being groomed for key back roles.

In the medium to small forwards, the Tigers are OK, without being outstanding. Jake King and Robbie Nahas re-invented themselves, but it’s a question of whether they can back it up next season. Matt White is a solid depth player, who I’m actually really looking forward to seeing what he can produce in 2012. It’s definitely a make or break season for him. Dean Macdonald, who will enter his second year, came to the club with below par fitness. By all reports he’s come back in great shape, and if he keeps it up he will definitely play games next season, as he fills a list need.

I’ve been harping on all throughout the trade week period about Richmond NOT needing another key position defender, and it really gets frustrating (for some strange reason) that guys like Zac Dawson are thrown up as potential pick-ups for the Tigers. While some may say the quality isn’t there, Richmond currently have six young key position defenders on the list, and you could even throw Kelvin Moore in there as he plays tall. Now why would you go and recruit and 26 year old battler is beyond me. The Tigers need to develop all these talls and pump games into them, and as we’ve seen with Alex Rance, experience comes with immense improvement and ultimately he’s just about the most important play on the Tigers list. I have Dylan Grimes ear marked as a future full back for the Tigers, and when he develops physically, he’ll be a fine player. Jayden Post and David Astbury are genuine centre-half back options that just need games and experience. Then you have Luke McGuane who is the most experienced out of all of them, and he does know how to do a job. David Gourdis is still developing, but he’ll need a big season you’d think to remain on the list as he’ll naturally get pushed out.

Again, the medium to small defenders are fine, and with the inclusion of Steve Morris, maybe Deledio can push into the midfield and fill that outside midfielder void. Bachar Houli has been a great pick up, and he and Newman will be the two half back flankers for season 2012. Jake Batchelor and Matty Dea are both extremely young, but are two vital cogs to the Richmond defence going forward, including next season. This is why I’m sceptical about Richmond’s season in 2012, as they are relying on 19 year olds to play big roles in defence, even though they’ll turn out to be two great players.

Finally, we address what was the Tigers’ biggest problem, the ruck. It got fixed during trade week with the inclusion of Ivan Maric, and he’ll be the club’s #1 ruckman going forward. The club will continue to invest lots of time into Andrew Browne, and Tom Derickx. If Derickx didn’t get injured early this year, I have a feeling he would’ve played close to 22 games. I also get the feeling that Tyrone Vickery, ONE DAY, will be the Tigers #1 ruckman, IF Ben Griffiths comes along in the forward line. It doesn’t look all that bad at the moment, anymore, and there’s still Angus Graham there as insurance.

SUMMARY: The Tigers are young, really young. They’re well balanced structurally though, and that will put them in good stead for the future. They’ve invited Addam Maric and John McCarthy to train with them over the pre-season, and they’ll fill a couple of voids on the list if they get picked up. I think they’ll use the first two picks in 15 and 26 on midfielders, mainly outside. The names like Brandon Ellis, Sam Docherty, Mitchell Grigg, Daniel Markworth and Elliot Kavanagh immediately spring to mind.

FANTASY SPIN: Steve Morris is a must buy for Dream Team and SuperCoach next season. Watch for Dean Macdonald to get lots of games too. Brad Helbig could also be a chance to step up into the midfield as well as Reece Conca.

Inside mid: 8
Outside mid: 6
Key forward: 5
Medium forward: 2
Small forward: 2
Key back: 3
Medium back: 7
Small back: 2
Ruck: 4
18-21: 10
22-25: 18
26-28: 7
29+: 4

It came as no great surprise that Port’s list didn’t come up too well in this format. I suppose the one positive you can say about their recent list management is that they’ve trimmed a lot of dead fat from the 29+ age bracket this year and especially after this draft period they’ll have an incredibly young list.

The big problem is pretty basic – they just lack talent. Their best players do still have room for improvement, and I guess part of the problem is that all of their best players are still quite young. I’m talking about John Butcher, Travis Boak, Robbie Gray and Hamish Hartlett and all have the potential to be elite players. I know he’s only played a handful of games, but I’m comfortable calling Butcher one of their best four players – it’s more of a statement at how they’re traveling at the moment. The expectations on that kid are scary!

It’s crazy how young they will be next year and due to some poor drafting in the past they’ve got a massive hole over 26 years of age. Even more of a worry is that even though their 26+ players are few in numbers they’re not that good in quality. Every team will have solid foot soldiers like Logan, Schulz and Chaplin, but a scary percentage of their elder statesmen are borderline best 22 – Brett Ebert, Cornes, Surjan.

While the age composition of their list isn’t great they are bound to get plenty of development into their youngsters over the next few years. As for their positional composition they’re a bit light on for midfielders and quality mids at that. Boak, Gray and Hartlett I’ve already spoken about as good players, who are still on the upward curve. There’s a definite need for young, hard nosed inside mids. It’s good for them that Brad Ebert returned home, but he’s not the big answer. It’s something they should look to address with their Pick 6 this year. I’d love to see them go for a young midfielder with a bit of mongrel like Toby Greene or Taylor Adams. They’ll be hoping like hell that Chad Wingard slips through.

Ruck was a big hole, as admirable as Matthew Lobbe was last season they’ve done OK to get Renouf from Hawthorn. He’s no world beater, but he’ll get the job done. It was a pretty good trade period for plugging holes, but not much more than that.

They’ve got the numbers in the key forward stakes, but not really the quality. Butcher, I’ve already spoken about, and there’s definitely quality there. Schulz and Westhoff both go OK. They’re limited, but there’s a decent enough trio to work with there. They definitely need a roaming forward who can take a mark and play at ground level. Collingwood noticeably don’t really play a medium forward, but that’s largely because of their quality mids rotating forward to play that role. Port don’t have that luxury. In fact, only Collingwood have the depth to pull that off. A younger version of Brett Ebert is pretty much what they need right now.

I don’t reckon their defence is too bad. I mean, it obviously doesn’t hold up too well at this point in time (it’s not exactly like it gets a heap of protection from their midfield) but it’s young and has promise. I like Pittard and O’Shea as medium defenders. Pittard will be a beauty to have kicking out of their back line for many years. I also think Paul Stewart adds a much needed competitive edge that they were clearly lacking in the second half of the year after his shoulder injury. I was probably a bit generous of calling Chaplin a key defender, he’s somewhere between key and medium, but a young developing key defender couldn’t hurt their list structure. One thing I will point out is that Nick Salter recently got a two year deal. Really? I’m not sure what he’s done to get two years after already spending a few in the system. I could try and look at their list with some sort of optimism, but decisions like that perplex me. How did their multi year deals work out for Hitchcock, M.Westhoff (two years each) and Kane Cornes (three years).

Summary: There is going to be a bit of hurt for a little while. It’s a list that’s a few years away from doing anything, but they’re all set to load up on youth over the next couple of years. Father time will squeeze a few out of the top end out and there’s plenty of delist potential in the 22-25 age group as they hit the draft hard.

Fantasy spin: It’s hard to recommend a gun from a team that will almost certainly finish in the bottom few. The point scoring potential at the top end is just less likely to be there in a team getting beaten (or smashed) most weeks. Renouf could provide value with the starting ruck role, but I also would like to see how Lobbe goes in the pre-season.

Considering they played most of their kids last year there’s no one really rookie priced to provide value. Aaron Young was named emergency late in the year a few times, but will need a solid pre-season in the weights room for any sort of sustained playing time. He’s an exciting high leaping medium forward, which is admittedly a void in their team. Whoever they pick at #6 (unless it’s Billy Longer) would be a good shake for early games.

NORTH MELBOURNE LIST ANALYSIS

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 7 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 6 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 5 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 2 (3.1)

Key Back: 5 (4.4)

Med Back: 6 (7.0)

Small Back: 0 (1.6)

Ruck: 3 (3.4)

Utility: 1 (1.1)

18-21: 11 (12.2)

22-25: 18 (16.9)

26-28: 6 (7.3)

29+: 3 (5.8)

Next up are the mighty Roos. In terms of young, up and coming sides, the Kangaroos have assembled quite the list, full of talent and balance (position wise).

The majority of the list is between the 22-25 age bracket, meaning everything going well, they should at least be in the running for the finals next season and then becoming a really big challenger in the next few years. The Roos only have the three veterans now with the retirement/de-listing of Pratt and Rawlings, so there’s lots of opportunity for Brad Scott to blood some new guys to see if they’ve got what it takes.

The positional break down looks quite impressive. It’s pretty well perceived that North Melbourne have one of the best up and coming midfields in the competition, and this table backs those statements up. Quality, inside ball winners are hard to find, and the Roos have at least four of them in Swallow (the superstar), Bastinac, Ziebell and Greenwood. I still have queries over Cunnington, but in round 24 against the Tigers, in probably his best game of his career, he showed what he is capable of. Adams is a soldier, and is pretty under rated, so it will be interesting to see where he fits in long term at the Roos. All these guys are EXTREMELY young, and are already doing the bulk of the grunt work, so it’s obvious to see why everyone is so chuffed.

The outside midfield stocks are just as impressive, albeit with stars in Wells and Harvey in there, but Atley and Speight look to have bright futures. Liam Anthony was surprisingly on the outer later on in the year and Wright still has a bit of a question mark over him. I think the Roos might be looking to draft another outside midfield type to fit in the the 18-21 age category, but having said that, it isn’t beyond the realms that a Scott McMahon or Aaron Mullett could make a move into the middle or a wing.

The Kangaroos also boast arguably the best ruck stocks in the competition. Todd Goldstein is an out and out star who is still extremely young, Majak Daw could be absolutely anything and Hamish McIntosh is a proven performer who still has lots of good years left.

Compared to lots of other clubs we’ve looked at as well, North Melbourne’s key position stocks look comparatively healthy as well. They acquired themselves a genuine quality swingman in Cameron Pederson who will probably start forward in 2012. Drew Petrie is the superstar forwards, and I really rate Aaron Black, who showed some great signs in his debut match against the Tigers. Lachie Hansen had a down season, but in 2010 he showed he was capable of holding down centre-half forward.

The key backman are equally as solid with Grima and Thompson holding down full back and centre half back respectively. Lachie Hansen could be swung down there if need be, but Luke Delaney showed some great signs later on in the season. They have lots of depth in this department, with Pederson an option as well.

What the Roos do lack is a genuine back pocket. They’re going pretty well, because that’s the most glaring deficiency on their list, and probably the easiest to fix in the draft with the likes of Puopolo and Duigan being plucked out of the SANFL. The medium backs are great though, with lots of depth and genuine quality ball users. Sierakowski will prove to be a great pick up, and could play games next season. Mullett is a great little player as well, and is an awesome kick of the footy.

Finally we get to the smaller forwards for the Roos, and again, lots of depth. The quality is questionable, but every player there has the talent. Warren and McKinley are probably a bit too one dimensional, but Harper is an up and coming star, and Edwards plays his role well. Matty Campbell has had terrible luck with injury, so hopefully he gets a good run at it in 2012, and Thomas had a down season, but he does have talent. They’re a pretty lethal duo when up and running.

SUMMARY

Possibly the most well balanced list I’ve looked at so far. They have a great young midfield, awesome ruck stocks and a very solid defence. The forward line is a little questionable post-Petrie but it certainly isn’t the worst going around. If I were drafting for the Roos, I think a player like Brandon Ellis is perfect for their first pick. He would slot into their backline straight away and fill the back-pocket role as well being capable of playing midfield down the track. I’d also look at possibly another outside midfielder with good pace and kicking skills.

FANTASY SPIN

I’m looking at break out years from Aaron Mullett and Levi Greenwood. I was big on Greenwood last season but he got struck down with injury. I like him as a Dream Team player with his high tackle counts. Scott McMahon could go to the next level as well.

LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 8 (7.8)

Outside Mid: 4 (6.1)

Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)

Med Fwd: 2 (4.0)

Small Fwd: 4 (3.1)

Key Back: 4 (4.4)

Med Back: 8 (7.0)

Small Back: 2 (1.6)

Ruck: 3 (3.4)

Utility: 2 (1.1)

18-21: 11 (12.2)

22-25: 14 (16.9)

26-28: 9 (7.3)

29+: 6 (5.8)

So we’re at the Hawks, who were incredibly unlucky to not have played off in the Grand Final this season.

For what it’s worth, I’m tipping them for next years premiership IF they can maintain a fully fit list come finals time. The problem with the Hawks though, is that a couple of injuries to key players could easily derail their season as they don’t have a lot of depth on the key posts. As limited in ability as he is, I thought it was a strange decision to let Brent Renouf go in the trade period. Max Bailey had a fine season, but he is hardly trustworthy enough to play 22 games, and Grimley and Lowden are miles away from playing AFL. You have Hale there as well, but they’re cutting a fine line with only having two AFL quality ruckman on the list with a team that is in a premiership window.

Looking at the Hawks age brackets, it’s not hard to see why they’re on the brink of premiership success again. Most of their players are between the age of 22 and 28 and all of them bar maybe Boumann would be in their best 26 players.

I’ll start with the key forwards. Franklin and Roughead are the obvious stars, with Hale the utility. I have also put Schoenmakers in the forwards, as that’s where I think he’ll make it at AFL level, it at all. He was drafted as a forward, but was immediately groomed as a key defender and I’m not sure why. I’m not exactly sure what Pelchen thought at the time that made him believe Boots would be a defender, but he simply doesn’t read the play well enough, nor does he have the physical strength to match it, as we saw in the finals when he got exposed. Schoenmakers best bet is as a leading half-forward where he can use his athleticism as he showed at U/18’s level, but Gunston has now been recruited who will basically play that role anyway, so I’m not sure where that leaves Schoenmakers next year.

The medium to small forwards, while there’s not a whole lot of them, are quality. Gunston, Whitecross, Breust and Osborne all do their roles and do it well, and you can also through Rioli in the mix most of the time when he isn’t in the middle. There are really no issues in that department.

Similarly in defence, the smaller backs are lathered in class and depth. Birchall, Sucking, Guerra and Puopolo are the ‘stayers’ (spring carnival mode), but Ellis, Cheney, Murphy and Bruce are all more than capable of plugging the holes and performing a task.

The main concern and it has been since Trent Croad retired, has been the Hawks key defenders. When they’re all on the park, there are no issues, as they’re all quality players, but it’s been a constant struggle. Stephen Gilham and Ben Stratton going down did help their cause, and they were forced to use Schoenmakers and Murphy. Murphy arguably had his best season in the AFL after he’s had a much maligned career but as we’ve touched on before, Schoenmakers isn’t the answer. Gibson was awesome all year, but he must maintain that level of consistency in 2012 for the Hawks to be any sort of chance as he’s become most arguably their most important player. To compensate for their loss of Lisle in the trade period, they brought in Boumann, so there’s not much lost there. If worse comes worse, I personally think Roughead would make a great centre-half back.

Again, their outside midfield stocks aren’t particularly loaded up, but it’s decent four or five players to have. Isaac Smith is the PERFECT modern day wingman, as is Clinton Young when he’s fit. Rioli floats through there at his leisure as does Shaun Burgoyne, whose preliminary final performance was immense to say the least. I put Burgoyne as a utility because of his ability to play everywhere on the ground, as well as Luke Hodge.

Finally, the Hawks inside midfielders are as good as it gets. Sam Mitchell’s year was unbelievable, as well as Jordan Lewis and Sewell got into the groove late. Liam Shiels had a breakout season as well as Shane Savage to a lesser extent, who’ll both be superb players for the Hawks. Mitch Hallahan I rated quite highly in his draft year, and Tom Schneider was really good in the pre-season games I thought. Luke Hodge is also mostly an inside mid, which is just the cherry on top. This line is just another one where the Hawks don’t really have to worry about.

SUMMARY:

The Hawks have got most bases covered leading into this year’s draft. If you really want to be picky, a mature age ruckman might be the go as well as a developing key back for the future. A key forward just for insurance could be handy as well, perhaps someone like Callum Wilson, who got de-listed by the Eagles.

FANTASY SPIN:

Spots are tight at the Hawks, but Clarkson isn’t afraid to blood new talent. Clinton Young and Xavier Ellis will both be cheap in 2012, but their spots aren’t as guaranteed as they were a couple of years ago.

Thomas Schneider is my smokey to get a few games next season.

List composition

NOTE: Ages based on what birthday the player will celebrate in 2012.

Inside mids – 8 (7.6)

Outside mids – 6 (5.8)

Key forwards – 4 (3.5)

Medium forwards – 5 (3.8)

Small forwards – 2 (3.1)

Key backs – 4 (4.1)

Medium backs – 7 (6.5)

Small backs – 1 (1.6)

Rucks – 5 (3.2)

Utilities – 2 (1.1)

18-21 – 29 (11.8)

22-25 – 6 (16.1)

26-28 – 6 (6.9)

29+ – 3 (5.6)

There’s no prizes for guessing who has the youngest list in the competition – something the Suns will maintain even with the addition of GWS, considering the Giants went for so many players in their 30’s. 29 players in the 18-21 age bracket says it all, with the next highest total being Collingwood with 18. Of course, their age profile is unbalanced, but it’s clearly a long term plan with the Suns.

It’s scary, but obviously no surprise how good the Suns talented youngsters are. They’re not all going to work out and they will also lose some good players over the next few years to homesickness or salary cap squeeze. By sheer weight of numbers they are in the best position to target the youngsters they desperately want to keep – and for those they simply can’t keep (you suspect Josh Caddy will be one of these) they’re likely to be get good value on the trading market anyway.

With so many draft, salary and list concessions they haven’t left any area of their youth development behind. To me their ruck stocks stand out and will be the most valuable commodity on their list. Zac Smith has already made a good impression and it’s fair to predict he will only continue to rise, however they still have Daniel Gorringe, Tom Nicholls, Rory Thompson, Tom Hickey who have all shown early signs that they could have either a future at Gold Coast, or good value on the trade market, considering they won’t all be there in 3-4 years. Gorringe and Nicholls, in particularly, are very exciting prospects.

The luxury they have, as I touched on earlier, is that they can target which ones they see having the brightest future at their club, while shopping the others around.

Both their inside and outside midfield stocks are littered with young talent. As if to really drive the point home they traded for the freakishly talented Jaeger O’Meara, who is not available to play AFL until 2013.
Despite being on the end of their fair share of losses, Gold Coast were actually pretty competitive in the clearances, led by mature bodies in Gary Ablett, Michael Rischitelli and Sam Iles. David Swallow was super around the clearances too and as these four take the brunt of the work it will allow Dion Prestia and Caddy a bit of time to get the hang of AFL.
Their outside run was a bit of a weakness, with Jared Brennan and Trent McKenzie providing most of that (as well as Ablett, who did pretty much everything) but apart from Brennan all of their outside mids are less than 21 years of age. While there’s a bit of upside there I think this is an area they could look at further bolstering – not because it’s not promising, but because it’s not quite a strength even when you just look across the 18-21 age bracket.

Tom Lynch and Sam Day are key forwards to build the team around. Lewis Moss battled with injuries in 2010, but will hopefully get a look in. They could really use some senior protection to ensure their two elite young key forwards don’t take a battering early in their career. Or maybe they can use Charlie Dixon as a decoy battering ram.

The acquisition of Matthew Warnock is a smart one. While it would’ve suited better to get a seasoned fringe key forward, they got Warnock cheaply and he’ll be a handy contributor to take the heat off the also promising Jack Hutchins and Seb Tape.

There’s not really much in the young column Gold Coast need to chase. Unlike pretty much every other team in the league it’s the 22-28 age bracket that they’re lacking in. You suspect, apart from the odd Warnock sort of trade, they’ll just be patient and develop from within. With all the access they’ve had to these kids and all the concession draft picks they’ve been smartly stockpiling they’ve set themselves up for a long run at getting good kids into their system, as their current young crop hit their prime around 23-24 years of age.

Summary: I’d love to see them go after a big bodied key forward with a bit of AFL experience in the draft period, such as Callum Wilson or Setanta O’hAilpan. They would provide important foil to their inexperienced forward line that needs a bit of a chop out. Their young outside mid stocks don’t impress me as much as their other lines. Other than that, a patient approach and good management would see them completely dominate the competition in about 2-3 years.

Fantasy spin: They blooded so many kids last year that there’s not a hell of a lot of value. Josh Caddy only played two games last year, so should be in line for a discount, however I suspect it won’t be enough to make him value. Piers Flanagan missed the year with a hip injury, but is a talented youngster that will be pushing for selection in 2012. To be honest, Gold Coast look like a team to avoid this year, apart from Ablett.