Footy Tragic

Dear Footy Tragics,

With so many teams “complete” by Round 16, many DT coaches are asking what to do with those surplus trades over the last seven weeks of the season. At this point of the season, most teams start to focus on private league glory, as they come to realise that the car is out of reach, except for the top 300 teams overall. This week I talk about what to do with those remaining trades and how many you should keep for Rounds 19 – 22, DT finals!

My strategy, which has served me well in previous seasons, is to retain four, possibly even five trades for the finals. Assuming I finish top four, my trades over the last four weeks will be used in the following manner:

• Week 1 – Use two trades searching for a win and a rest in Week 2. I look for a two for one trade to bring in an absolute gun;
• Week 2 – Hold fire (assuming you win Week 1);
• Week 3 – Use one to two trades (the Preliminary Final is arguably harder to win than the GF, because teams often use their remaining trades in the lead up to this final). Look for another two for one trade, or simply replace an injured or rested premium.
• Week 4 – Use one trade to replace an injured or rested premium.

If you finish 5 – 8, you must go for broke because there is no second chance.

Do not underestimate injuries or restings in the latter part of the season. We must remember that Mark Thompson and Ross Lyon are not concerned with our DT’s. If Gary Ablett, Paul Chapman, Jimmy Bartel, Leigh Montagna, Brendon Goddard, Lenny Hayes or Nick Dal Santo need a rest before the AFL finals, they will be given one between Rounds 19 – 22! Let’s not forget Round 19 last season, when St. Kilda rested all of their stars in the one week against Hawthorn, week 1 of DT finals.

The AFL season is long and brutal and all players at this point of the season are carrying various ailments and niggling injuries. AFL premierships are won in September, not August and clubs want their stars peaking during the finals series (AFL finals, not DT finals)! Don’t fall for the trap of thinking your current starting lineup of 22 players in Round 16 will be the same 22 players who get the job done for you in Rounds 19, 20, 21 and 22.

One week is a long time in football, which makes seven weeks an eternity. You’ve been warned.

Good luck!

View Darwin Jabiru’s Team
Round 13 Score: 2,182
Current Overall Ranking: 8,054
Trades Left: 6
Remaining Salary Cap: $77,600

Dear Darwin Jabiru’s,

Thank you for submitting your team. With only six trades remaining up your sleeve and the inevitable injuries and “restings” over the final nine rounds of the season, you must use your remaining trades wisely.

My main concern with your team is Paul Bower from Carlton, the biggest DT tease in 2010. I rate Bower as a quality AFL player and I enjoy watching him play. His ability to shut down his opponent and then provide attacking run when the Blues get hold of the footy is brilliant and I believe he is one of Carlton’s most important players when fully fit. I also think he could be a very handy DT selection in 2011, as he has shown his scoring capacity in the few games he has played this year with an average of 95 points per game. The problem is Bower’s chronic quad injuries (both left and right quads) which have restricted him to just three AFL games thus far this year, in Rounds 1, 6 and 13. Bower will be missing once again in tonight’s match against the Brisbane Lions due to “soreness”. The term “soreness” concerns me greatly, particularly after a week’s break due to the split round. His body has let him down badly this year and many DT’s have shared his pain. I believe that it is now time to bite the bullet and cut your losses with Bower.

I also believe the timing is right to offload Ben Howlett from Essendon. Howlett has risen in price by $171,000 this year, but he has poor job security. Coach Matthew Knights obviously doesn’t have Howlett in his DT, because he has dropped him twice this year after solid scores (63 points in Round 2 and 61 points in Round 11). Check the teams at 5pm tonight before pulling the trigger.

MY RECOMMENDATIONS THIS WEEK:

OUT: Paul Bower $330,500 and Ben Howlett $249,100

IN: Brendon Goddard $479,000 and Koby Stevens $89,500.

Goddard is a must have defender, along with Luke Hodge so I won’t waste time explaining my reasons for recommending Goddard.

Koby Stevens was selected by the West Coast Eagles with selection number 23 in the 2009 National Draft. Stevens is a tough inside midfielder and he was captain of the Gippsland Power in the TAC cup last year. Stevens is a very good size for a first year player (187cms, 83kgs) and he is a strong tackler. Stevens made his debut for the Eagles in Round 13, scoring 46 points against the Western Bulldogs. I expect Stevens to be given plenty of opportunities over the remaining nine rounds, as the Eagles start preparing for 2011 and beyond.

In answer to your previous questions about Eddie Betts and Cyril Rioli, my recommendation is to keep them. Your remaining four trades should be used to cover injuries.

Good luck!

View Bluetonium’s Team
Round 12 Score: 2,305
Current Overall Ranking: 37,876
Trades Left: 11
Remaining Salary Cap: $28,400

Dear Bluetonium,

Thank you for submitting your team. The question you have put to us asking the best way to finalise your team for the run home is one of the most common questions we get asked. Having 11 trades up your sleeve to use over the remaining 9 rounds is certainly a luxury and the time has come for you to start using some of those valuable trades.

The best way to improve your side is to start making what is commonly referred to as “two for one” trades. This trading strategy involves trading out two average or mid priced players and replacing them with one gun and one rookie. The gun player that you bring into your team becomes a keeper for the run home, while the rookie becomes a valuable addition to your side as a reserve e.g. your 8^th defender or forward, 7^th midfielder etc. I have identified the following nine mid priced players who you should look to trade out of your side in the run home.

These players are: Ben Nason, Tadhg Kennelly, Ryan Bastinac, Dustin Martin, Brodie Moles, Matthew Leuenberger, Hayden Ballantyne, Sam Wright and Cameron Hitchcock.

Choosing the guns to bring into your side is the easy part. My advice is to bring in the best player you can afford in each position. Players such as Heath Scotland, Dane Swan, Gary Ablett, Leigh Montagna, Matthew Boyd, Dean Cox, Paul Chapman, Matthew Pavlich and Alan Didak should be very much on your radar over the next 6 – 8 weeks.

Choosing the rookies to bring into your side is much more challenging. My advice is to select the rookies with the greatest job security for the run home. This means that we want our rookies playing regular AFL footy, rather than being constantly in and out of the side. At this point of the season you should be looking very closely at rookies from teams out of finals contention such as: West Coast, Adelaide and Richmond. The reason for this is because these teams need to start building for the future, which means they need to test their rookie’s ability by giving them regular games of AFL footy. You should avoid looking at rookies who play for teams such as: Geelong, St. Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn etc. because these teams will be relying on their more experienced, proven players as they strive for September glory.

Prior to Rounds 14 and 15 you should bring Andrew Strijk and Koby Stevens into your side, along with two guns I have mentioned above. For other future rookie selections, be sure to read Dan’s weekly “Bargain Basement” article on Wednesday’s.

Good luck!

View Grechatano’s Team
Round 12 Score: 2,085
Current Overall Ranking: 43,875
Trades Left: 6
Remaining Salary Cap: $202,500

Dear Grechatano’s,

Thank you for submitting your team.

Having already used 14 trades this year, your team is nearing completion. Of the 30 players in your squad, the only player I would be trading out this week is Matt Maguire. Maguire has served his purpose brilliantly this year, averaging 75 points per game and rising in price from $101,700 to $286,600. Maguire has without doubt been one of the most valuable DT selections in 2010, but there is no place for sentiment in football and it is clearly time for him to go. He is out for another 3 weeks with his foot injury and given his past injury concerns with this foot, combined with the fact he is not a keeper, it’s time for him to go.

MY RECOMMENDATION THIS WEEK:

OUT: Matt Maguire ($286,600)

IN: Heath Scotland ($413,200)

I rate Scotland as a high quality player and the bonus with Scotland is that you can insert him into your backline, despite the fact he plays as a midfielder. Scotland has averaged 101 points per game in 2010 and he shows no signs of slowing down. Scotland is the 3^rd highest ranked defender behind Luke Hodge and Brendon Goddard in terms of total points scored in 2010, illustrious company indeed!

I recommend holding onto Jonathan Brown, despite the fact he is out for 4 weeks (3 games with the split round) with an abdominal strain. Brown when fit is a definite keeper and you need him for the finals. It seems pointless to trade him out and then bring him back in later in the season, using two valuable trades in the process.

For the 138,060 teams with Jonathan Brown in your side, I see no point trading him out unless you are currently sitting inside the top 500 teams overall and gunning for the car. If you are outside the top 500, you have no chance of winning the car because you are too far behind the leader, so it’s time to focus on winning your private league.

For those following my team on the site this year, my team has now slipped out of contention for the car after I played with only 19 players last weekend (a record low for me). Never before have I had three late withdrawals from the same position (Brown, Sylvia and Didak)! It’s all my own fault though because my horrible selection of Relton Roberts prior to Round 1 has come back to bite me in the worst possible way. My other non playing forward was Shaun Higgins. This example highlights the importance of having quality cover! Needless to say, my focus is now on private league glory and I’ll have another crack at the car in 2011!

Good luck!

View Bay City Retards’ Team
Round 11 Score: 2,173
Current Overall Ranking: 42,216
Trades Left: 6
Remaining Salary Cap: $132,700

Dear Bay City Retards,

Thank you for submitting your team. I note from your e-mail to us that your main objective in 2010 is private league glory. I also note that you are currently on track for a top four finish.

I’ve mentioned many times previously the importance of finishing the home and away season inside the top four. There are two key reasons why this is so very important to your team’s ultimate success:

1. The double chance gives you two opportunities to make the preliminary final;
2. If you are good enough to win in week one of the finals, you earn the right to a one week break which means you can save your remaining trades for the preliminary final and grand final.

Regular readers of this column will be well aware that I like to preserve trades for later in the season, rather than burn them by Round 17 or 18 gunning for the major prize. As a result of this tactic, I have had a great deal of success in very competitive private leagues over the past few years.

My main objective in 2010 was to have a serious crack at winning the car, but with an overall ranking of 445 after Round 11, I’m running out of time to make my move. As each week passes by I start thinking more and more about turning my attention to private league glory. Fortunately, I’ve kept plenty of golden trades up my sleeve!

After not recommending any trades in my last two Submit Your Team articles, I thought this week would be my chance to recommend the must have mid season cash cow of 2010. However you have already bought in Jordan Gysberts so once again my recommendation is to hold fire.

Your current team has a solid core, but it is seriously lacking in on field depth. You simply cannot afford to enter a DT finals campaign with the likes of Webberley, Banfield and Hitchcock in your starting 22.

To help you with your private league finals campaign, I’m going to give you the names of the players currently in your squad of 30 who should be in your starting 22 in Round 19. These players are: Goddard, Hodge, Waters, Malceski, Fisher, Bower, Ablett, Bartel, Barlow, Thompson, Cox, Chapman, Didak, O’Keefe, Brown, Byrnes, Podsiadly and Murphy. I’ve identified 18 keepers, your job is to find at least another three keepers (your lack of trades may prevent you from finding another four) by DT finals week 1.

Mid priced players such as Kennelly, McKenzie, Banfield, Duncan, McEvoy etc. should be offloaded to free up cash which will allow you to make the required upgrades. You don’t have enough trades to dump all of these players, but at least two and possibly three of these players need to go.

If you are unsure when is the correct time to pull the trigger on some of these players, please feel free to post the question on our site.

Good luck!

View Neenie21′s Team
Round 10 Score: 1,872
Current Overall Ranking: 12,652
Trades Left: 6
Remaining Salary Cap: $139,900

Dear Neenie 21,

Thank you for submitting your team. Overall you have done a very good job constructing your squad of 30 players. To have 26 of our 30 players score points in Round 10 is an excellent effort. Add Michael Barlow this week and assuming Cameron Hitchcock passes a fitness test on his shoulder you will have 27. In addition, Rob Warnock and Matt Lobbe are showing solid form for the Northern Bullants and West Adelaide respectively, which leaves little Relton Roberts from Richmond the only dead duck in your team.

I feel your pain with Roberts as I went for the Podsiadly / Roberts combination as my 8^th and 9^th forwards prior to Round 1. After Round 10, Podsiadly is my number 1 forward based on averages while Relton Roberts is struggling for form and has gone from playing AFL football to VFL reserves for the Coburg Tigers in the space of just seven weeks! Roberts has been clearly my worst selection since John Meesen in 2008. Meesen holds the unenviable record of being the only player I have ever selected who has gone through an entire season without scoring a single point! At least Roberts has played two games, despite the fact they were far from impressive.

Back to your team Neenie and let’s focus on your next 12 rounds. I’m very concerned about your lack of trades remaining. It will be a tough ask trying to avoid a donut over the next 12 rounds with only six trades up your sleeve. Your solid squad of 29 players will help you get through but I suspect your team will be running on fumes by Rounds 20 – 22 unless you go into conservation mode over the next four weeks.

I can see that you have used your 14 trades thus far wisely, but I strongly encourage you to hold fire for the next month. Even if Hitchcock does not get up for this round, avoid the temptation to bring in cover into your forward line.

Another reason for not trading is I cannot see any real stand outs to bring in this week that have played two games. Nathan O’Keefe and Daniel Stewart could turn out to be handy back up options, but I’m far from sold on both of them. The fact that O’Keefe is 193cms and Stewart is 200cms also concerns me because young developing key position players / ruckman take longer to develop than midfielders. Having said that, if anyone out there can think of a compelling reason to bring in one of these two players I’d be happy to hear it.

Good luck!

View Smokies’ Team
Round 9 Score: 2,041
Current Overall Ranking: 18,583
Trades Left: 8
Remaining Salary Cap: $221,000

Dear Smokies,

Thank you for submitting your team. Firstly, I must congratulate you for selecting Jordan Russell prior to Round 1. Clearly an inspired selection that has paid off with handsome dividends! On the negative side of the equation, I’m very concerned that you have only eight trades remaining with 13 rounds still to be played. Ideally, you should aim to have one trade remaining for every round remaining.

After looking closely at your 2010 trading history, I am also concerned about some of the players you bought into your team through trades. You have clearly jumped on the bandwagon with certain players such as Mark Seaby prior to Round 3 and Kyle Reimers prior to Round 4. While you were not to know that these two players would get injured shortly after selecting them, these two players should never have been bought in at all. Seaby played one brilliant game in Round 2 and did little else, while Reimers is simply not a viable dreamteam option due to his chronic inconsistency. Neither of these two players lasted for more than four weeks in your team, which effectively means you wasted four trades (two to get them in and two to get them out).

Your team now is very solid with a complete midfield and ruck division. Ideally you would make another four upgrades (two in defence and two in the forward line), but you may have to settle for two more upgrades because of your lack of remaining trades. The chances of you running out of trades early are very high, so you must use your remaining trades very wisely. Unfortunately injuries are inevitable, so you must retain at least six trades to cover for injuries.

With no quality cash cow options priced under $120,000 set to soar in price after two games this weekend, this week is a good opportunity to hold fire and save your valuable trades. Furthermore, you have quality emergency cover in Webberley, Bastinac and Gumbleton (Dangerfield should be in your starting seven in the forward line).

I note in your e-mail to us that you are considering trading out Gumbleton for Pavlich this week. My fear is that this move could potentially end up being another case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted. Given the fact you are out of contention for the car and I assume gunning for private league glory, I believe it would be best to wait three weeks and then make a decision on inserting another premium forward. Pavlich has been brilliant thus far in 2010, but you need the player who will dominate from Rounds 19 – 22, not Rounds 1 – 9. Waiting three weeks will allow you to assess other quality forward options you may not have yet considered.

My message is don’t just lock in a player simply because he scored well last week. You don’t get points retrospectively for players you trade into your side.

Good luck!

View Kreuze Kontrol‘s Team
Round 8 Score: 2,036
Current Overall Ranking:23,131 of 298,872 (Total score: 15,858)
Trades Left: 12
Remaining Salary Cap: $65,900

Dear Kreuze Kontrol,

Thank you for submitting your team. At first glance, I can see that you have picked up two unique players in Paul Bower and Bernie Vince. From a personal perspective, I’ll be looking very closely at these two players for my dreamteam in 2011, because I believe they have the potential to be DT stars. Unfortunately for you, they have caused you nothing but nightmares for various reasons in 2010.

Bower has a magnificent average of 111 points per game; his problem is he can’t stay out on the park. Suspect quads have reduced him to just two games in 2010. Bower is likely to miss another next three weeks due to his latest quad injury, but you have adequate cover so I recommend keeping him. Furthermore, I like Bower as a unique selection and he will provide you with a very handy point of difference upon his return.

Vince on the other hand has played all eight games in 2010; his problem is heavy attention from opposition taggers and ongoing hamstring concerns. An average of 89 points per game in 2010, well down from his 2009 average of 100 points per game tells the true story. Vince is now likely to miss at least the next two games through a combination of a rolled ankle sustained at training and a one match club suspension. Assuming one of Ben Howlett or Luke Shuey can cover for you for the next two weeks, I recommend holding onto Vince because I expect him to finish the season strongly. The saying “form is temporary, class is permanent” springs to mind with Vince.

My recommendations this week:

OUT: Ben Nason (227,900) and Scott Gumbleton ($235,100);

IN: Jeromey Webberley ($89,500) and Alan Didak ($397,200).

Nason and Gumbleton have both been brilliant for you thus far, but they are now ripe for the picking.

In relation to the ins, the 21 year old mature age recruit Jeromey Webberley has scored 61 and 52 in his first two games with the Tigers. This is your last chance to snap him up for a bargain, so my advice is to act now. One thing I like with Webberley is that assuming he continues his current impressive form, he should hold his position in Richmond’s best 22. Coach Damien Hardwick has an obligation to find new players capable of playing AFL football. The only way he can find these new players is to give them plenty of games.

My reason for recommending Didak is simple; he is a proven DT gun.

Good luck!

View Bombs Ahoy‘s Team
Round 7 Score: 1,938
Current Overall Ranking: 37,373
Trades Left: 14
Remaining Salary Cap: $60,000

Dear Bombs Ahoy,

Thank you for submitting your team. I have noted from your e-mail that your main objective is private league glory and that you are currently sitting 9^th in your league.

With 14 trades remaining, I recommend using three of these trades over the next two weeks. There is no point saving these trades for the finals of your private league if you are still in 9^th position after Round 18. In addition, I strongly believe that you really need to finish in the top 4 of your private league to have a serious crack at winning the premiership. The double chance you gain with a top 4 position is invaluable. In fact, when it comes to your private league, finishing 4^th after Round 18 is just as good as finishing on top because there is no home ground advantage in dreamteam!

The obvious problem you have this week is the injured Jared Brennan. With Brennan’s ankle injury likely to sideline him for 3 – 6 weeks (depending on which article you read) the decision is simple, he has to go.

My recommendation this week:

OUT: Jared Brennan ($348,200);

IN: Alan Didak ($392,700).

My reason for recommending Didak is simple, he is a proven DT gun and he is the best forward you can afford. There is no stand out cash cow who is about to play his 3^rd game this weekend, so I recommend using one trade this week and two trades next week.

Next week, I recommend dumping Barry Hall and one of Matt Maguire or Ben Nason. I understand that Hall has a breakeven of 120 points this week but I would prefer to use this weekend to have a second look at Brad Sheppard and Jeromey Webberley. You can then bring in a gun premium forward for Hall using the cash obtained from the Nason / Maguire to Sheppard / Webberley trade.

These recommendations will set you up for a strong run home and a place in the top 8 (or hopefully top 4) of your private league.

Good luck!

View IDDQD’s Team
Round 6 Score: 1,809
Current Overall Ranking: 37,351
Trades Left: 16
Remaining Salary Cap: $187,400

Dear IDDQD,

Thank you for submitting your team. Overall, you have put together a solid squad of 30 players with a good mix of premiums and cash cows. However, the time has come to pull the trigger on two pre season value picks who have failed to deliver the goods.

Rick Ladson looked a pre season bargain and I gladly jumped onboard. I’ve always rated Ladson as a quality AFL player and he was brilliant for the Hawks in 2007 and 2008. Ladson played just 3 games in 2009 due to injury and he was simply too good to ignore in 2010 at the attractive pre season price of $185,100. Unfortunately, an average of 52 points per game over the past 3 weeks is simply unacceptable from your 7^th defender. I pulled the trigger on Ladson last week and I recommend you do the same this week.

The other player you should offload is Jesse White from Sydney. While I do believe White is a quality AFL player with a magnificent set of hands, he is definitely not a quality dreamteamer. White has dropped in price from $215,100 to $181,900 after averaging a pathetic 42 points per game over the first six rounds. To put it bluntly, he has to go.

My recommendations this week are:

OUT: Rick Ladson ($226,300) and Jesse White ($181,900);

IN: Bradley Sheppard ($133,500) and Dean Cox ($383,500).

DISCLAIMER: If Sheppard does not debut this week, you will have no cover in your back line due to the 1 week suspension incurred by Matt Maguire. I recommend trading out Ladson rather than Maguire because Ladson is a strong chance to be lining up for the Box Hill Hawks this week. Maguire will return after 1 week whereas Ladson could be playing in the VFL for weeks. Please wait until Friday afternoon before executing any trades. Best practice is to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday, after Sunday line ups have been finalised.

Brad Sheppard was selected by the West Coast Eagles with pick 7 in the 2009 National Draft. Sheppard has been in fine form for East Fremantle in the WAFL and he is a strong chance to debut for the Eagles this week. Sheppard would most likely have already made his AFL debut, had he not suffered a fractured cheekbone playing for East Fremantle in late March. Fellow Footy Tragic writer Dan discussed Sheppard in great detail during the pre season. To read Dan’s article on Sheppard, click here:

Dan’s Draftees – Brad Sheppard

The other selection is more obvious. Cox has been a dreamteam star for years and after a slow start to the season he is dirt cheap! Cox has averaged 98 points per game over the past 3 weeks and the time to get onboard is now.

Next week, I recommend bringing in Ryan Hargrave for Ben Nason to bolster your back line,

Good luck!