Footy Tragic

Bargain player

Robert Murphy – Western Bulldogs ($298,600, FWD, Break even: 52, Price drop this season: $52,200)

The obvious target for this article would be Ryan Hargrave, but there’s already been plenty of discussion about him this week, so there’s no point in me bleating out a whole bunch of stats you probably already know about him.

Instead, I’m going to look at the other end of the ground, to his teammate Robert Murphy. At the start of the year I thought the man affectionately known as Bob was good value. He was the same price as Buddy though, so I passed on him and after Round 2 I was cursing myself as Bob netted scores of 111 and 93, but he has been a little quiet since then.

Remarkably he’s actually dipped down to a little under $300K, largely due to a score of 33 against Brisbane. He was struggling to hold marks for a couple of weeks there and this was adversely affecting his score. It should be noted that it was extremely slippery up in Brisbane though and everyone was dropping simple marks that night!

I like the look of his next month too, so it’s fair to say this will be as low as his price will get. He’s got Melbourne this week and you may look at the stats and see an ugly 36 as his last score against them, but that was 36 points in the first 20 minutes of the game before he did his hammy. He was on track for a big one that day!

After that the Dogs have Sydney, North and Essendon. He didn’t play against Sydney last year, but scored 91, 62 and 102 against them in three games in 2008 (the 102 being a final). His average against North in his last three against them is 94.7. Essendon are a young team, who famously cop a lot of criticism for not having much of a defensive game – sounds sweet for a forward, especially one that averages 98.8 against them since 2002!

In the past the concern has been his durability, but all the talk coming out of Whitten Oval in the pre-season is that his body is as good as it’s ever been. While there are never any guarantees with even the most durable player, I must say, he is moving very well and looking fit, so I’m less concerned about this than in past years with him.

On the bubble

Nat Fyfe – Fremantle ($89,500, FWD, Break even: -60)

First two games: 66 vs. Richmond (W), 60 vs. West Coast (W) = 63 avg.

I must admit I haven’t seen Freo over the last two weeks, but I have seen a bit of Fyfe before and he looks a gem. I’m a little surprised he’s having an impact in his first year, given that he’s a key forward/third tall type, but with such a skinny frame at his young age.

Contested marking is a real feature of his game and it sounds like he’s been pulling a few down. Without having seen Freo’s last fortnight, I can’t comment too closely on his job security, but all of the reports have been pretty good and it’s not like Ryan Murphy is banging down the door to take that role off him. Could be a good cash cow, but in the forward line that might not be overly necessary after I’m sure many of us just jumped on one or both of Rocky and Pods.

Ben Cunnington – North Melbourne ($141,500, MID, Break even: 21)

First two games: 48 vs. Hawthorn (W), 36 vs. Melbourne (W) = 42 avg.

The bloke that Toby has been raving about all year has been pretty disappointing in his first couple of games (to be fair to Toby, I’m pretty keen on this bloke too). He had a slightly interrupted pre-season and seems to be struggling with the pace of AFL after only having two games in the VFL before making his debut.

He’s a very tough and hard player and I believe it’s well worth the Roos persisting with him in the seniors. It’ll be a bit awkward if he is named to play this week. He’s priced quite highly, being that he was the #5 pick at last year’s National Draft and has only scored modestly so far. His exposed form isn’t really enough to pick him on, so you’d be backing him in to get it together and really break out over the next month.

With a break even of 21, even if he does look a lot better and score a 50 or so this week his price will only go up about $10K. If you’re considering him it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to let him have one price rise, just to see how he’s looking and then maybe bring him in.

Matthew Lobbe – Port Adelaide ($94,500, RUC/FWD, Break even: 14)

First two games: 28 vs. St.Kilda (W), 28 vs. Adelaide (W) = 28 avg.

He’s consistent. With two scores of 28, I’ll give him that. He’s a candidate to get games on a rather inconsistent basis to back up Brogan, but Trengove and Cloke are also lurking around that second ruck spot, plus Choco will let Brogan go it alone every now and then with support from the third worst Westhoff. As it was, he was only a late in last week against Adelaide.
He’ll get games, but how many is a big question mark. I wouldn’t be advising you downgrade Warnock to get him in just to grab a bit of cash, because I see Warnock as the one more likely to be playing games when you need him (even though he was in the VFL last week). Rookie rucks aren’t cash cows, so I’m not a fan of trading them in (and as a forward there are much better options). He’s a good one to sit around on your bench if you’ve already got him though.

Jarrad Grant – Western Bulldogs ($96,700, FWD, Break even: -77)

First two games: 58 vs. Adelaide (W), 92 vs. St.Kilda (L) = 75 avg.

The #5 draft pick from 2007 spent most of his first few years in the VFL, but some good early form this year has seen him get his chance. His 2009 debut showed that he was a fair way off it, but he’s looked much more comfortable in his two games so far in 2010.

I worry that there’s a lot of pressure for spots at the Bulldogs so it won’t take much for him to get dropped, but while he’s performing as well as he has been there is definitely a spot for him. He’s a good option and might even be a slight point of difference for your team, but what’s with all these good cash cow options coming through in the forwards?!

Jordan Roughead – Western Bulldogs ($94,500, RUC, Break even: -33)

First two games: 64 vs. Adelaide (W), 39 vs. St.Kilda (L) = 51.5 avg.

It’s hard to consider trading him in with Will Minson lurking at Williamstown. Minson has been named fourth and second best in his two games at Willy, so while Roughead has looked great so far, you get the impression he’s just keeping Minson’s seat warm for now. Would be a massive job security risk to trade him in and you can also refer to my point above with Lobbe about rucks not being great cash cows anyway.

Once again, there’s so many guys on the bubble, but this week I’ll do a quick analysis on some falling premiums. I don’t want to paint one side of the picture without the other…but I’ll keep it kind of brief, let’s face it, this is taking me ages to write.

Dean Cox – West Coast ($377,700 RUC, Break even: 78, price drop this season: $93,800)

Cox has started horrendously slow this season, which is most unlike him. Typically Dean Cox has two types of scores – big ones, or 0′s because he is not playing. Luckily for those of us who didn’t start him this year he started the season with 52, 45 and 73, dropping his price right down and his break even way up. Even with his last two games being 99 and 102 he’s still been going down in price.

How good is that? We get to see him back in full form while his price continues to plummet. Anyway, his price will be on the way back up now and I’ll be extremely surprised if he gets cheaper than this in 2010.

For those who planned on trading him in for your mid priced ruckman now is the time to get rid of a Seaby, Naitanui or Ottens – they’ve done their job for now and for the first time ever it’s accessible to trade a $250K ruckman for Cox if you’ve got a little bit of cash. Those with Hille (like me) might have a tougher decision this week. Hille has had a 114 and 87 over the last two weeks, so has scored the exact same as Cox. Hille only has a break even of 16 this week, so maybe you could wait another week…or do you even bank on Hille being a potential keeper? Can opened, worms everywhere. Would love some discussion on this predicament…

One thing to consider with Cox for this week is that he is playing against Sandilands. Even though I expect Cox to get his break even, Sandilands will be much tougher opposition than anyone else he’ll face. The week after, however, Cox is up against Hawthorn, who’s ruck stocks range from Brent Renouf to an inanimate carbon rod. He could potentially be restricted a bit this week, but next week he could score, like 730 DT points.

Alan Didak – Collingwood ($388,600 MID/FWD Break even: 92, price drop this season: $62,700)

The thing I’m loving about Didak this year is that he’s only had one really ordinary game (52) and a couple of consecutive 80′s to bring his price down. In the past goals have really assisted his DT scoring, but this year he’s been playing a more exclusive midfield role. He’s still able to bob up for a goal here or there, but he’s looking very much like a player than can pull down tons, whether or not he’s getting goals. I see his goals now as more of a bonus than an important element of his scoring potential.

His next three games are against Carlton, North and Freo. Carlton haven’t been too bad at restricting him in the past, but he did get a 96 against them last year and a 95 in 2008 (he did also have a 44 in a separate encounter in 08). I think his form is hot enough to make him a big chance for a great score this week. He didn’t play against North last year, but I can see him cutting them up and he scored 116 and 77 against them in 08. I’m sure Didak owners remember his 156 against Freo from last year very fondly too.

His big price drop makes it look like he’s been a lot worse than he has been. His form hasn’t been too bad at all and I reckon he’s just about to hit a good patch. Didak is a player that tends to kill it in a big way over a few weeks, for example last year he had a five week run where his lowest score was 121.

Phil Davis – Adelaide ($94,500 BAC/FWD, Break even: -70)

First two games: 69 vs. Carlton (L), 71 vs. Western Bulldogs (L) = 70 avg.

I’ve really like the start to Phil Davis’ AFL career. After a very disappointing NAB Cup, I didn’t think he’d be one to consider this year, but he looks a completely different player. I thought he was one of Adelaide’s best on Friday night (which puts him in a category slightly above handicapped). He finds plenty of space in the back half and Adelaide aren’t afraid to chip it around, resulting in a lot of +6′s. Not a bad option if you need a back or a forward, but be wary of his job security in the long term. He seems like someone who is great when things are going his way, but completely anonymous when it’s not going well for him. With Bock and Stevens to come back in, he’s done enough to hold his spot for now, but a bad game could see him go back to the SANFL.

Simon White – Carlton ($77,800 BAC, Break even: -74)

First two games: 74 vs. Adelaide (W), 58 vs. Geelong (W) = 66 avg.

Once again, someone who’s job security I wasn’t sold on, but with Andrew Walker going down it slightly improves his spot in the team. Keep in mind that his debut game coincided with the week Thornton and Waite got dropped though, so if Ratten goes for his more experienced players then White could be on the chopping block. They’ve also got Paul Bower to come back into their defence. He scores well enough and his first two games have been promising enough. I really liked his NAB Cup too and was one I had my eye on hoping he was named Round 1. As I mentioned last week, I’m very skeptical of young kids under Ratten – he loves giving them a taste and sending them back to VFL.

Ben Howlett – Essendon ($77,800 MID, Break even: -79)

First two games: 74 vs. Geelong (L), 63 vs. Fremantle (L) = 68.5 avg. (note: these games were Rounds 1 and 2)

I just want to mention Howlett because even though he hasn’t played since Round 2, I anticipate that his third game will be this week. He was unlucky to be dropped in the first place, Essendon were deadest embarrassed on ANZAC Day, so will ring the changes (plus Reimers and Pears will be two forced outs). Obviously job security is pretty bad, but if you’re already holding him, rejoice if he gets named and hopefully he can hold his spot. Doesn’t seem to be considered best 22 by his coach, so I wouldn’t be trading him in, but I do quite like him.

Jarrod Kayler-Thompson – Hawthorn ($77,800 MID, Break even: -108)

First two games: 65 vs. Melbourne (W), 101 vs. North Melbourne (W) = 83 avg. (note: these games were Round 1 and 5)

No doubts about his scoring potential and he’s mature aged, which we all love. But his job security is a big concern. There will be a revolving door on Hawthorn’s last 3-4 spots in their 22 and JKT is very much a part of that rotation. With so many players to come back from injury I don’t think he’ll feature enough (or at least consistently enough) for DT. It’s a real shame because he’s a cracking scorer. You’ll be able to make a quick buck off him if he’s named for a couple of games in a row, but he was first named in Round 1 and then didn’t play until he was a very late in just last week. I’m not advising against him necessarily, but if you’re picking him I’d be expecting him to be there for a good time, not a long time.

David Astbury – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: -6)

First two games: 51 vs. Melbourne (L), 22 vs. Fremantle (L) = 36.5 avg.

A lot of hype after his first game, but was practically invisible last week. I’ll pass…

Matthew Dea – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: -35)

First two games: 30 vs. Melbourne (L), 72 vs. Fremantle (L) = 51 avg.

He has a trait that Richmond are obviously massive fans of – poor kicking. His scoring pattern is pretty much a reverse of Astbury’s – invisible in his first game, but got a bit of it in his second. Even if he does hold his spot, I can’t see him getting too many points on a team that rarely has the ball. He’s a very late convert to footy too (basketball background, only played a handful of TAC Cup games) so I think this year will be a development year for him and that’ll be best done in the VFL.

Troy Taylor – Richmond ($89,500 FWD, Break even: 4)

First two games: 46 vs. Melbourne (L), 17 vs. Fremantle (L) = 31.5 avg.

I’m really sorry that I recommended him in the pre-season and hope that no one got excited when he was named to debut two weeks ago. Avoid. Copped a knock on his knee late in the game last week, but if fit I don’t think he’ll even be picked to play.

Ashton Hams – West Coast ($77,800 DEF, Break even: -58)

First two games: 48 vs. Essendon (W), 68 vs. Sydney (L) = 58 avg.

The mature aged rookie listed player from West Coast looks pretty safe to me. He’s very versatile, so that’s something that will help him keep his spot in the team, but for the moment he compliments Mark LeCras as a small forward really well. His versatility was a hallmark of his WAFL career and it seems like that will carry over into the AFL. I like his job security and reckon he’s going to be a pretty solid point scorer around the mid 50′s to mid 60′s in average. He could provide either good bench coverage for those that may have missed out on someone like Maguire, or could be used as a cash cow.

So as I was explaining last week, this article will look at players that are set to go bang. Generally I’ll have a look a couple of falling premiums, maybe try and explain why their scoring has been below par, find some stats to indicate they’re on the way back up etc. However, I’m also committed to using this article to write a brief description of all rookie priced players who are on the verge of their first price rise. 

This week there are SEVEN players on the bubble, so forgive me for not writing about a premium this week, I’ve got seven rookies to write about so there’s plenty of reading material for you to go on with. FWIW, Dean Cox is the most intriguing premium. He’ll still be relevant to write about next week, but his break even this week of 106 this week is actually achievable, so this could be as cheap as Cox will be this season. Pending a good game this week I’ll be taking a very close look at him next week when there are far less rookies about to soar in price…  
 

Chris Schmidt – Adelaide ($94,500 DEF, Break even: -71) 

First two games: 81 vs. Melbourne (L), 60 vs. Carlton (L) = 70.5 avg. 

The rookie listed Crow hasn’t been too bad in his first couple of games. To be “not too bad” is basically like being in the Top 5 at the Crows the way they’re going this year. His spot in the team should be pretty safe for a few weeks with so many Crows playing so badly. For a rookie back his scoring potential isn’t really a problem, he fits the bill there, but long term I’d be more worried about his job security, which as I mentioned seems pretty solid for now. He’s not a super kick of the ball, so as the Crows start getting guys back from injury I wonder if his kicking will come under the microscope from match committee. Mind you, that’s more of a general comment about his game – his kicking has been fine in his two games so far. 

Tom Rockliff – Brisbane ($101,100 FWD, Break even: -91) 

First two games: 87 vs. Port (W), 78 vs. Bulldogs (W) = 82.5 avg 

My love for him is well and truly on the record. I love the way he’s been able to find space on the wing so far in his first two games of the season. For a bloke who was always knocked for having poor fitness, he’s working pretty damn hard. It’s obviously been a big improvement in his game. He’s a very smart footballer with the capability of racking up good numbers. Job security could be an issue down the track, but with his current form he demands selection and will make good money quickly. If the Lions have a few more guys pushing into their midfield, Rockliff could keep his spot in the team as a forward too. 

Kane Lucas – Carlton ($113,500 MID, Break even: -77) 

First two games: 67 vs. Essendon (L), 93 vs. Adelaide (W) = 80 avg. 

He managed good numbers in his first game against Essendon, but didn’t really look that good IMO. A much better performance against admittedly pedestrian opposition last week and he almost snagged a ton! He’s a little pricier than most of midfield rookies at $113K. I’m a bit of a fan of his and honestly there’s nothing intuitive about this next comment, but I just kind of get the feeling he might take a little bit of time to consistently be a good scorer at AFL level. It’s more of a hunch than anything, but if your hunch makes you think the other way, then good luck. 

Travis Colyer – Essendon ($89,500 MID, Break even: -75) 

First two games: 68 vs. Carlton (W), 73 vs. West Coast (L) = 70.5 avg. 

Pacy outside player with a reasonably one way game and questionable kicking skills – sounds like someone Knights would play. That sounds a lot harsher on Colyer than it’s really meant to, because I’ve enjoyed his first two games I quite liked his form for WA in the U/18 Nationals last year. The major worry I have is that Knights seems to be a coach that likes to give players a taste at the top level and then drop them to Bendigo (Pears, Myers in 08, Zaharakis in 09, Howlett this year). Consider his stint in the seniors a bit of an experiment and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t back to the VFL in a few weeks after gaining some valuable experience. 

Jake Melksham – Essendon ($121,500 MID, Break even: -27) 

First two games: 57 vs. Carlton (W), 59 vs. West Coast (L) = 58 avg. 

Like his similarly small framed teammate, job security will be a risk with any Essendon youngster that isn’t a freak of nature (see: Hurley). Melksham is a naturally inside player and he has remarkable poise for someone of his age. He’s just one of those players who always seems to have more time than you think, but isn’t necessarily quick (reminds me a bit of Pendlebury in that regard). However, with a small frame and an inside game I’d only be expecting him to play another 4-5 consecutive games at most. He’s a player I rate very highly, but I’m currently drafting a personal rule where I don’t take Essendon rookies. I’ll be watching the case study of Colyer and Melksham very closely after the unwarranted demotion of Howlett. 

James Podsiadly – Geelong ($77,800 FWD, Break even: -143) 

First two games: 85 vs. Freo (L), 115 vs. Port (W) = 100 avg. 

Seriously, who doesn’t love this guy?! There’s something incredibly endearing about a guy that he made his debut at such a late age he’s actually starting to sprout a couple of grey hairs. And how has his form been? He’s kicked eight goals in his first two games and has been in better form than Mooney and Hawkins. Those who were sold on a downgrade to Rockliff this week have to be asking a few questions of themselves now. J-Pod (yep, I’m not ashamed to use such a lame nickname) is about $25K cheaper, has similar top end scoring potential and similar job security. Like Rocky if he keeps up this form he simply can’t be dropped. With their expected price booms it makes sense to trade in the forwards this week with Hitchcock and Gumbleton pretty close to maxed out on price and Roberts a total spud. Rocky vs. J-Pod will be a huge decision for many coaches this week. 

Ben Stratton – Hawthorn ($89,500 DEF, Break even: -37) 

First two games: 62 vs. Bulldogs (L), 41 vs. Collingwood (L) = 51.5 avg. 

Out of all the guys ‘on the bubble’ that I’ve spoken about I rate Stratton’s job security the best, especially with Josh Gibson out for so long at Hawthorn. The 21 year old originally from East Perth is not a huge ball winner though. So you’re more looking at a guy with a fairly safe spot in the team, but more of an emergency type for your team. He’s not going to be one you rely on for big scores, but every now and then might bust out a 70 or so to pump up his price. If you missed on Maguire at the start of the year, I think Stratton is a pretty decent alternative before his price rises. 

I would also like to thank Grimlock and FF Genie for the break even numbers. Don’t know what FF Genie is? Check out www.freewebs.com/ffgenie – top quality program!

In an effort to improve our site, we’re looking at different ways to give our readers the best advice possible. From now on, my Player of the Week will have a slightly different take. Rather than looking at one player in great detail I’ll give a bit of a statistical analysis on a few guys who are ripe for the picking. I’ll also include an “On The Bubble” bit for all rookie priced players who have played two games. The idea of this is to make the articles more accessible and relevant to as many people as possible by throwing up more names.

Cyril Rioli

There’s been a bit of talk about him on Footy Tragic this week. I must admit I had him in very early versions of my team this pre season, but I cooled on that idea pretty quickly when there was talk of him having OP. He missed Round 1 as a result, but all that has done is made him relatively unpopular in Dream Team.

I love him so much as a player. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t love Cyril – he embodies so much to love about footy. As a DT’er, he knows how to score. Tackles, goals and marks are all a part of his game. I was really amazed that he scored 71 DT points from only 10 touches in his first game of the season against Geelong. SEVEN points per disposal – this is what four marks and five tackles will do to a relatively quiet day on the disposal count. He followed it up with an impressive 130 (career high) against the Bulldogs, including four goals, six marks and six tackles head to head with one of the best small defenders in Jarrod Harbrow.

Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we can only project that Rioli has long term sustainable DT improvement in him for 2010. It’s not like picking a falling premium – we are genuinely looking for Cyril’s breakout year. Some might say, wasn’t that his rookie year in 2008? I say not, because when Cyril truly breaks out he will be one of the best players in the AFL.

Keep in mind that last week against the Bulldogs was only the sixth time in his 46 game career where he topped 20 disposals. However, as I pointed out above he can score points on a low disposal count and in general he looks set to improve his numbers this year if he can stay healthy. His tackling is insanely good and his closing speed is better than anyone’s in the AFL – it’s some effort to catch Ablett holding the ball twice in your career, let alone twice in the same game, which is what Cyril did in Round 2.

Jared Brennan

It’s pretty convenient that there’s two guys under $400K who look set for big years, have only played two games and are set to go up in price the week the most common premium forward goes down with a DT season ending injury.

Not that this site is used for commentary on MRP decisions, but for those who don’t already own Brennan his incredibly soft and slightly confusing suspension was a blessing in disguise, just as Riewoldt’s hammy goes bang (in a bad way).

The big question has to be, is one of the biggest DT teases over the past few years doing it again? Is he luring us in and bending us over like he has to many time and time again? I gotta say, I’m not so sure this time. This could finally be what we’ve been waiting for from Jared Brennan.

His move to the midfield opened up a DT gold mine last year. He did admittedly show a bit of inconsistency, and this may be the sort of thing that continues to plague him as a player, but the trend moved greatly towards the higher end of his scoring. Just as he was looking good last year, he headbutted Josh Carr and thousands of DT coaches were cursing, thinking that he’d be looking at 3-4 weeks at such an important time of year. Luckily he only got one, and to be fair heaps of people have wanted to headbutt Josh Carr.

His scores of 121 and 119 so far this season are only a small sample, but he finished off last season quite well too. His big strength as a DT’er is his ability to pull down massive mark and tackle numbers, but disappointingly doesn’t kick enough goals.

On The Bubble

Keep an eye on these cheapies, who have played two games and are about to go up in price…

Rohan Bail

The mature aged selection for Melbourne was off to a flyer in his debut game last year picking up a kick in the first minute, but in turn injuring himself (hammy IIRC). Three points per minute is pretty awesome though! That was his only game for 2009, but after a good pre-season he cracked the Dees side in Round 2, where he had the game on his boot in the dying seconds – unfortunately he decided to put it into Petterd’s hands.

A 67 and 87 is none too shabby for a young Melbourne midfielder and I honestly rate his job security a little better than Tom Scully’s at this stage. Slightly risky to bring him in if you already have Scully and Jack Trengove – three rookie Melbourne mids is fraught with danger, but I don’t reckon Bail is too bad of a pick at $101K and a break even of roughly -80.

Brodie Moles

Another mature aged selection (we love them for DT) who had a cracking season in the Bulldogs midfield after spending two years on Geelong’s rookie list. A beautiful kick of the ball and once they get all the Geelong out of his system maybe he won’t handball so much and use that lovely right peg a bit more.

Job security will always be an issue at a contender like the Dogs, but with Picken out for 6-8 weeks that might help his cause a fair bit. Akermanis also to miss and only Johnson and Eagleton to come back in the short term means he should hold his spot for another few weeks. Priced at $83K and a break even score of roughly -84.

Ben Howlett

OK, so he’s not in my DT side, but I do have him in SC and when I saw his omission last week I went on a massive anti-Knights tirade. Some of that IS still left in my system and that may subtly come out as I write this paragraph.

I’ll just throw him in there, in case Essendon’s match committee opt not to smoke crack at the table this week and actually put him back in. I’m not thinking it’s likely though, after a good win against the Blues and Michael Hurley a lock to come back in. For the record, their wholesale changes were obviously a good idea, but dropping Howlett was crazy. Especially to bring up Bachar Houli and once again prove he has no clue.

I must admit I thought he did enough to ensure solid job security in a fairly average midfield. Scores of 74 and 63 is what you can expect from him if he comes back in, but he’s probably more relevant to people who already own him. Probably a bit too risky to trade him in after being unexpectedly dropped…

Relton Roberts

GOD NO! I have him and can’t wait to get rid of him. I hope he is named this week just so I can get a minor price rise out of him before trading him to Rockliff, but he is so far off AFL tempo that I can’t guarantee he will make his break even this week even if he does play. His break even is 1, by the way. ONE point.
Won’t be surprised if he is dropped after two very mediocre performances. Admittedly playing as a small forward for a team that can’t get the ball into their attacking half of the ground is not conducive to DT scoring.