Footy Tragic

Toby runs through another mid-priced forward in Pat Karnezis – is his new role in the midfield worth a gamble?

Karnezis is actually a player I was half tempted to write about last week considering his fantastic pre-season, however I opted to have a bit of a look at him first and I’m very glad I did.

Karnezis was a player I quite liked in his breakout year of 2011 – he played 11 games as a forward, kicking 17 goals and averaging around 8 disposals and four marks a game. He looked to have really cemented his spot in the team, playing 11 of the final 12 games of the year.

Unfortunately, 2012 was a much different story for him, managing only seven games, and was given the sub vest on five of these occasions. Again he was played up forward, managing to average a goal a game. In the three games he wasn’t sub, he averaged 10 disposals, 2 goals, 7 marks and 2 tackles – all pretty reasonable numbers for a second year player.

The real story is actually what he was doing whilst not wearing Brisbane colours in 2012 – whilst he spent 7 games in the seniors, the other 14 games were spent playing for Brisbane reserves side in the NEAFL. One slight on his game had been his fitness, so he was trialled through the midfield to help develop this weakness into a strength. It paid dividends for him as he went on to be the highest vote getter in the Grogan Medal for the Brisbane reserves.

Despite just increasing his running power and endurance, Karnezis became a fantastic ball winner in the reserves competition, averaging 28 disposals, including six games where he surpassed the 30-touches mark. These are great numbers to suggest the midfield is a great place to see him develop – he has also not lost his ability to pull in the marks or kick a few goals too.

Over the off-season, Karnezis has spent his time training with the midfielders to further develop his craft – this is also a sign that Vossy is prepared to play him as a midfielder in 2013 and not just stick him back in the forward line. We got to see him in action on the weekend in the first of Brisbane’s two NAB Cup games. In the game he played 100% across the wing, showing good decision making and ball-skills – and most importantly, he showed a knack of finding the footy; he finished the game with 10 disposals (7 kicks, 3 handballs), 3 marks and 2 tackles.

We know these initial NAB Games are a bit a of fluff and they aren’t the sorts of games that should make you want to do a hundred changes to your squad. But it is a good chance to see some of the younger players and where the coach may be trialling them. I daresay Vossy would have been impressed with Karnezis’ performance – as I said above, he used the ball well, got plenty of it and looked confident. One position on the wing for the Lions will be taken up by Pearce Hanley, but I daresay Karnezis is the front runner for the other.

For those tempted to put him in their teams, he is dirt cheap – only $238,500 in Fantasy Football and $262,200 in Supercoach. He can be selected as a forward only. At the above prices, he will be competing with the likes of Shannon Byrnes, Travis Varcoe and Josh Kennedy for a spot in your team (or maybe you will have multiples) and I daresay Karnezis will be the least common option out of that group – but by no means does it mean he is the worst option. In the role he played on the weekend there is no reason he can’t average 75-80 points a game and give you a hefty price rise with some decent scores along the way. The main thing you would want to be cautious of is that he is best-22, so the next few weeks of the NAB Cup will be crucial for his chances. As it stands, he is in my team, although a couple of poor performances and he will be out. As I said last week, the increased trades in Fantasy Football lends itself to taking risks, so why not take a punt on Karnezis over Byrnes or Varcoe – it may just give you that edge you need over your mates.

Toby discusses the player many are hyping as the next Brendon Goddard. Does he live up to the hype?

So now with some AFL matches finally underway, it’s time we can start telling you exactly who you want to pick in your teams! My series of articles is basically going to run you through mid-priced or value options for Fantasy football this year. I will look at some rookies too, however I feel in 2013 the mid-priced player will become as popular as ever. With two trades a week, the game lends itself to ‘taking a punt’ a little more often than we might have been able to in the past. We know mid-priced players can typically go one of two ways; coaches who do their research may find themselves picking a breakout star who averages over 100, whilst another coach (who may have done just as much research) lands themself a dud, who is in and out of the side all year. These extra trades make the latter scenario much easier to deal with, hence reducing the risks involved.

Another factor that may influence our decision is the depth we are now able to create in our midfields. With an extra two players, it allows coaches to play with many more options for what is easily the most lucrative position in fantasy football. Also, if you are keen to stock up on premium talent in the midfield, mid-pricers suddenly become more important in the forwards and backs.

Now, who to look at first… Honestly, I’m pretty tired after a long day at work, so I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to launch into a topic I know quite a bit about… Arryn Siposs of the St.Kilda Saints, or ‘the new Brendon Goddard’ as some have been calling him.

So, why has this nickname been getting flung around on social media for Sippa? The ‘Brendon Goddard’ role has become quite famous at the Saints over the past number of years – whilst we have seen some inconsistencies from the ex-Saint, overall he has been one of the best rebounding defenders and playmakers over the past several years, unrivalled through the competition for his ball-winning ability, coupled with his ball use. He has been the Saints’ go-to man just about every time they try and move the ball forward. Therefore, losing him to Essendon over the off-season will likely be felt pretty significantly down at Seaford.

Throughout the pre-season to date, many eyes have been cast over the Saints list to find out who may be moving into this lucrative fantasy role for 2013. It now appears that Arryn Siposs is that man. He has trained with the defenders all pre-season, played almost the entire intra-club across half-back and through the midfield and then lined up in the same position for the Saints NAB games on Sunday afternoon. His kicking is absolutely exquisite – he already has huge confidence to hit his targets (and does go for some near-impossible passes as a result) and appears to work hard to get into good ball-receiving areas.

I will however mention a few slights on him. Firstly, just like Goddard before him, he doesn’t do too much of the dirty work himself. I’ve already seen a number of situations this pre-season where he has just stood outside a contest waiting for the ball, rather than diving in to help his teammates. His confidence is good, but we don’t want him to become over-confident. Scott Watters has made similar remarks over the past few weeks, stating he is not guaranteed a game and does still have areas to work on. Whilst this is likely just a coach putting the acid on a player whom he knows has a lot of potential, it may also mean Sippa won’t be gifted games in 2013 if he begins to coast. The other query on him (or at least this role) is that he is not the only one capable of playing this role. We’ve seen Sam Gilbert play a similar role in the intra-club, and James Gwilt looked fantastic rebounding off half-back in the NAB Cup. Nick Dal Santo is another senior name trialled in this role, whilst fellow youngster Jack Newnes is another who may get some time in the role. Essentially, if Siposs doesn’t impress quickly, he’s not the only man for the job.

That all said, 2013 is very much a year of development for the Saints. That’s not to say they won’t still be hoping for a finals berth, but I believe above everything else in 2013, the Saints desperately need to unearth some exciting young talent. And Siposs is one of the standouts from the crop, meaning we should really see him play most games this year, and as Watters has said in the past, he doesn’t want to shield the youngsters from big roles in the side.

In the first NAB Cup game, Siposs managed 7 disposals and 4 marks (35 DT points), which isn’t too bad for this form of the game. However in the second game he managed just the one handball, albeit after already playing one game in 38-degree heat. He also had pretty limited time on ground. I guess it’s fortunate will have a few more opportunities to see him play before round one.

Having a look at stats from 2012, his numbers are a bit all over the place. He played 11 games in total, including four as a sub (three subbed on, one subbed off), three of which came over his first four games of the year. He had two scores over 100 DT points and two in SC. He also played the majority of the year as a forward, with only a couple of games late in the year with a role in defence, scoring 100 and 58 DT points in these outings. These stats are somewhat hard to base future improvement on, however, as we are definitely expecting higher numbers from him this year, based on greater experience and responsibility.

Overall, I believe Siposs will be one of the significant improvers in 2013. Even is he only gets tastes of the half-back role, I can’t see him fitting back into the forward line this year considering there is already a back-log of players for this area of the ground, meaning at worst he may be stationed on a wing or a little deeper in defence. The Saints desperately need a good user of the football in the backline and I believe Siposs will be given first crack of this in 2013. Whilst I would be tempering your expectations if you believe he will average Goddard-like numbers, but I do believe we can see a significant improvement from him in a role that will lend itself well to plenty of marks and kicks – two stats crucial to both fantasy football and SuperCoach.

You can pick Arryn Siposs as a forward only in 2013.

Fantasy Football: $325,000

Super Coach: $316,600

NORTH MELBOURNE / MELBOURNE / RICHMOND (Fri night – Etihad Stadium)

NORTH MELBOURNE
1. Daniel Currie, 2. Brad McKenzie, 3. Ryan Bastinac, 4. Liam Anthony, 5. Ben Jacobs, 6. Lachlan Hansen, 7. Jack Ziebell, 8. Daniel Wells, 9. Andrew Swallow, 10. Ben Cunnington, 11. Michael Firrito, 12. Lindsay Thomas, 14. Jordan Gysberts, 15. Luke Delaney, 16. Scott Thompson, 17. Nathan Grima, 18. Shaun Atley, 19. Sam Wright, 20. Drew Petrie, 22. Todd Goldstein, 23. Kieran Harper, 24. Levi Greenwood, 25. Robbie Tarrant, 28. Will Sierakowski, 29. Brent Harvey, 30. Tom Curran, 31. Cameron Delaney, 34. Jamie Macmillan, 35. Aaron Black, 38. Majak Daw, 41. Aaron Mullett, 42. Scott McMahon, 43. Sam Gibson, 46. Ben Speight

North Melbourne’s fantastic run with injuries in 2012 has continued into the start of their 2013 campaign, with Leigh Adams the only best 22 player not in the 34 man squad. As a result of such a healthy list they don’t have quite as many rookies as other teams. The duel between Daniel Currie and Majak Daw to see who is second in line behind Goldstein will be interesting and both will get their chance to impress. Brent Harvey will get a good run at the NAB Cup before having to serve a six week suspension to start the season.

It will also be the first chance we get to see Ben Jacobs and Jordan Gysberts in a North jumper.

Interesting stat: Currie and Sierakowski are the top two current players for years spent in the AFL without debuting.

MELBOURNE
1. Jesse Hogan, 2. Nathan Jones, 4. Jack Watts, 5. Jimmy Toumpas, 6. Chris Dawes, 7. Jack Viney, 8. James Frawley, 10. Shannon Byrnes, 12. Colin Sylvia, 13. Jordie McKenzie, 14. Lynden Dunn, 15. David Rodan, 17. Sam Blease, 19. James Strauss, 20. Colin Garland, 21. Cameron Pedersen, 22. James Magner, 25. Tom McDonald, 26. Daniel Nicholson, 27. Tom Gillies, 28. Joel Macdonald, 30. James Sellar, 31. Jack Grimes, 32. Michael Evans, 34. Dean Kent, 36 Aaron Davey, 38. Jeremy Howe, 39. Neville Jetta, 40. Mark Jamar, 42. Jake Spencer, 45. Matt Jones, 46. Dean Terlich, 47. Tom Couch, 48. Jack Fitzpatrick

There’s a few Dees missing for this first pair of games, with co-captain Jack Trengove, Mitch Clark, Luke Tapscott, Max Gawn and Rohan Bail, but overall it’s not too far off full strength for this time of year. There are three legitimately hot rookie options in Jimmy Toumpas, Jack Viney and Dean Terlich. Toumpas and Viney are midfielders and two of the highest rated juniors from 2012, while Terlich is a mature aged rebounding defender who was drafted from Norwood in the SANFL.

You can look, but you can’t touch Jesse Hogan, who was a mini draft selection for Melbourne last year. He’ll spend the year playing in the VFL, as he’s a few months too young for AFL. As far as other rookies go, it might be worth keeping a bit of an eye on Michael Evans, Dean Kent and Matt Jones. Evans played four games in 2011, but missed last year with a back injury. Jones is 25 years old, so you you would suspect he’s been recruited to play pretty much straight away.

RICHMOND
1. Chris Newman, 3. Brett Deledio, 4. Dustin Martin, 5. Brandon Ellis, 6. Shaun Grigg, 7. Matt Dea, 8. Jack Riewoldt, 9. Trent Cotchin, 10. Shane Edwards, 11. Jake Batchelor, 12. David Astbury, 13. Ricky Petterd, 14. Bachar Houli, 15. Chris Knights, 16. Luke McGuane, 18. Alex Rance, 20. Ivan Maric, 21. Shane Tuck, 23. Daniel Jackson, 24. Ben Griffiths, 26. Robin Nahas, 27. Aaron Edwards, 29. Ty Vickery, 30. Reece Conca, 31. Nick Vlastuin, 35. Matt White, 36. Matt McDonough, 37. Orren Stephenson, 38. Steven Morris, 39. Tom Derickx, 43. Todd Elton, 44. Matthew Arnot, 45. Brett O’Hanlon, 49. Steven Verrier

Apart from their backline Richmond are also pretty close to full strength with Dylan Grimes, Troy Chaplin, Brad Helbig, Jake King and Nathan Foley all missing this weekend. We’ll get a good look at DEF/MID Nick Vlastuin, who has reportedly had a strong pre-season, while there are a few other rookies in action who wouldn’t be expected to break straight into the 22 this early (apart from Astbury, who we already know about).

Ricky Petterd, Chris Knights and Orren Stephenson will all be looking to make a good impression with their new club, with Petterd and Stephenson in a battle for promotion to the senior list.

CARLTON / GWS / SYDNEY (Sunday – Blacktown)

CARLTON
1. Andrew Walker, 3.Marc Murphy, 4. Bryce Gibbs, 6. Kade Simpson, 7. Dylan Buckley, 9. Kane Lucas, 10. Matthew Watson, 11. Robert Warnock, 12. Mitch Robinson, 13. Chris Yarran, 14. Brock McLean, 15. Jeremy Laidler, 16. Andrew Collins, 17. Sam Rowe, 19. Eddie Betts, 20. Rhys O’Keeffe, 21. Josh Bootsma, 22. Shaun Hampson, 23. Lachie Henderson, 24. Patrick McCarthy, 27. Dennis Armfield, 28. Tom Bell, 31. Marcus Davies, 34. Nick Duigan, 35. Ed Curnow, 38. Jeff Garlett, 40. Michael Jamison, 41. Levi Casboult, 42. Zach Tuohy, 43. Simon White, 44. Andrew Carrazzo, 45. Aaron Joseph, 46. David Ellard

The Blues will have a run without Chris Judd, Matthew Kreuzer, Heath Scotland and Jarrad Waite, so they’re missing pretty much one player from each part of the ground. There’s not a massive amount of rookie interest, except for Sam Rowe, who is an enticing RUC/FWD option. Even if he doesn’t play he’s still worth a spot on your Dream Team or SuperCoach team purely for flexibility.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
1. Phil Davis, 2. Curtly Hampton, 4. Toby Greene, 5. Dylan Shiel, 6. Lachie Whitfield, 7. Rhys Palmer, 9. Tom Scully, 10. Devon Smith, 11. Taylor Adams, 12. Jonathon Patton, 13. Sam Darley, 14. Tomas Bugg, 15. Tim Golds, 16. Nathan Wilson, 17. Adam Treloar, 18. Jeremy Cameron, 20. Adam Tomlinson, 21. Matt Buntine, 22. Shaun Edwards, 23. Sam Reid, 25. Anthony Miles, 26. Jonathan Giles, 28. Liam Sumner, 30. Lachie Plowman, 31. Jacob Townsend, 32. Gerald Ugle, 35. Aidan Corr, 37. Setanta O’hAilpin, 38. Stephen Gilham, 39. Tim Mohr, 40. Adam Kennedy, 42. Mark Whiley, 43. Kurt Aylett, 48. Sam Frost

Not that there’s many experienced players to be missing, but the notable ones are Stephen Coniglio, Callan Ward, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Bret Thornton and Chad Cornes. Only Tyson and Cornes are out long term. #1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield will get his first taste of action, though an article from earlier today quoted assistant coach Leon Cameron as saying they are hoping to get half a season out of him.

Fellow draft picks Lachie Plowman and Aidan Corr will get a run in defence, but Kristian Jaksch and Jonathan O’Rourke won’t be playing. It’s great to see Setanta O’hAilpin out there and with the lack of forward rookies, despite his slightly heavier price tag, he might be worth a look.

SYDNEY SWANS
1. Tim Membrey, 3. Jarrad McVeigh, 4. Daniel Hannebery, 5. Ryan O’Keefe, 6. Tom Mitchell, 7. Harry Cunningham, 9. Nick Malceski, 11. Jed Lamb, 12. Josh Kennedy, 13. Andrejs Everitt, 14. Craig Bird, 15. Kieren Jack, 17. Tommy Walsh, 18. Jesse White, 19. Tony Armstrong, 20. Sam Reid, 22. Dean Towers, 23. Jordan Lockyer, 24. Jude Bolton, 25. Ted Richards, 26. Luke Parker, 28. Matthew Dick, 30. Lewis Roberts-Thomson, 31. Harry Marsh, 32. Lewis Jetta, 33. Brandon Jack, 34. Alex Johnson, 35. Sam Naismith, 36. Alex Brown, 38. Mike Pyke, 39. Heath Grundy, 42. Xavier Richards, 43. Dane Rampe, 44. Jake Lloyd, 46. Shane Biggs

There’s a bit of excitement in the fantasy world about Tom Mitchell. The father/son pick from last year was battling a nagging knee injury all through 2012, so we never saw him, but he’s a big chance for games this year. Jed Lamb has been there for two years and finished last year very strongly. Dean Towers was a mature aged player from North Ballarat in the VFL, so he’s one to watch. It’s a tough side to break into, so you don’t imagine there’ll be too many spots for rookies at Sydney this year.

BRISBANE / GOLD COAST / HAWTHORN (Sat night – Metricon Stadium)

BRISBANE LIONS
1.Sam Docherty, 2. Ryan Harwood, 3. Brent Moloney, 5. Billy Longer, 6. Josh Green, 8. Rohan Bewick, 9. Ashley McGrath, 10. Daniel Rich, 12. Stefan Martin, 13. Callum Bartlett, 15. Dayne Zorko, 17. Claye Beams, 18. Todd Banfield, 19. Jordan Lisle, 21. Daniel Merrett, 22. Marco Paparone, 24. Joel Patfull, 25. Richard Newell, 26. Elliot Yeo, 28. Patrick Karnezis, 29. Andrew Raines, 30. Jack Redden, 31. James Polkinghorne, 35. Ryan Lester, 36. Matt Maguire, 37. Patrick Wearden, 38. Tom Rockliff, 40. Niall McKeever, 41. Mitch Golby, 42. Justin Clarke, 44. Aaron Cornelius, 46. Sam Michael, 48. Stephen Wrigley

There’s a mix of interesting rookies lining up for the Lions, with Sam Docherty being the highest priority. Unfortunately Sam Mayes doesn’t get a run, as he’s a rare forward rookie option worth a look. Of course, Brent Staker will miss the start of the season with a knee injury.

It will be good to see if the talk about Tom Rockliff spending more time in the midfield wasn’t just talk and just quietly, I’m keeping a close eye on Daniel Rich, who I reckon is ready to explode.

GOLD COAST
1. Jaeger O’Meara, 2. Zac Smith, 3. Jared Brennan, 4. Maverick Weller, 5. Jarrod Harbrow, 6. Alex Sexton, 7. Karmichael Hunt, 8. Luke Russell, 9. Gary Ablett, 11. Harley Bennell, 12. Sam Day, 13. Jacob Gillbee, 14. Matthew Warnock, 15. Daniel Gorringe, 16. Rory Thompson, 17. Steven May, 19. Tom Lynch, 21. Jeremy Taylor, 23. Charlie Dixon, 24. David Swallow,  26. Matt Shaw, 28. Jack Martin, 29. Tom Murphy, 30. Campbell Brown, 31. Jackson Allen, 33. Aaron Hall, 34. Jack Hutchins, 35. Michael Rischitelli, 36. Greg Broughton, 37. Jesse Lonergan, 38. Joel Wilkinson, 40. Andrew Boston, 42. Kyal Horsley

New drinking game. Drink a Jaeger Bomb every time Jaeger gets it. This guy is one of the most exciting rookie prospects this year, so keep a close eye on him. There’s another “look, but don’t touch” with Jack Martin named, but he’s not old enough to play AFL until 2014. Jesse Lonergan could be a very good midfield option, as he’s got a very mature body and is strong around the contest.

It’s a little surprising to see Ablett named, especially if you were to believe some of the doom and gloom about his pre-season, but he must be fine. This will be our first look at everyone’s FAVOURITE fantasy player Greg Broughton in his new colours. You might say “never again” but what if he busts out 60 in one of these mini games?

HAWTHORN
2. Jarryd Roughead, 4. Matthew Suckling, 6. Josh Gibson, 10. Bradley Hill, 13. Kyle Cheney, 14. Grant Birchall, 16. Isaac Smith, 17. Brian Lake, 18. Brent Guerra, 19. Jack Gunston, 20. David Hale, 21. Shane Savage, 22. Luke Breust, 23. Lance Franklin, 24. Ben Stratton, 25. Ryan Schoenmakers, 27. Matt Spangher, 28. Paul Puopolo, 29. Will Langford, 30. Luke Lowden, 31. Angus Litherland, 32. Jonathan Simpkin, 33. Cyril Rioli, 34. Jordan Kelly, 35. Sam Grimley, 37. Jed Anderson, 38. Mitch Hallahan, 39. Max Bailey, 40. Tim O’Brien, 41. Taylor Duryea, 42. Kaiden Brand, 43. Amos Frank, 46. Derick Wanganeen, 47. Jonathon Ceglar

Buddy and Ablett playing against each other in a Round 1 game? Slow down fellas! It’s early days yet.

There’s a huge amount of rookies lining up for Hawthorn, so it will give their fans a glimpse of the future. It’ll be a very inexperienced midfield without Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell, Shaun Burgoyne and Jordan Lewis (not that Burgoyne has spent heaps of time in the centre lately).

I’m really looking forward to watching Jed Anderson in action and undoubtedly Tom Schneider will dominate in the NAB Cup like he always does and continue to be on our short lists (wait…he got delisted…)

2013 FOOTY TRAGIC TOP 100 FOR ULTIMATE FOOTY CATEGORY LEAGUES

The two players that have moved into the Top 50 are at the bottom there – Paul Chapman and Nick Riewoldt. They were a bit unlucky to miss out last week, but with two players dropping out they were the next two to jump up. Obviously their goal scoring is a big advantage. Chapman is pretty strong across the board for all categories and while Riewoldt is a bit low in possessions and tackles, he’s so good with marks and score.

On the flip side, the two players to drop out were Aaron Sandilands and Ben McEvoy. Sandilands obviously dropped due to that hamstring injury that will keep him out for the start of the season, but his drop was much more significant because last week I was not as concerned about his injuries, but this feels like a real wake up call and it will hurt if he can only manage 12 games. Over the past two seasons he’s played 25/44 home and away games.

McEvoy slid a bit in the rankings due to the very impressive performance of Tom Hickey over the pre-season. McEvoy is still a very good option, but if Hickey keeps this great form up at the very least he’ll eat into McEvoy’s numbers a bit and at the very most it wouldn’t be too big a stretch to see him taking the #1 mantle at St.Kilda this season. There is a bit of an unknown factor surrounding McEvoy, so it just means to approach him with a little trepidation.

Taking into consideration what I said about McEvoy earlier, I took a similar view with Todd Goldstein. The emergence of Daniel Currie in the first round of the NAB Cup asks just a little question. In his press conference after their double header of games Brad Scott said of Currie, “we were looking for a good back up for Goldstein and we found more than that. He was really impressive tonight.”

Rucks appear over represented considering you only need one on the ground, but for a start this list factors in their pure value, not necessarily their draft position. Secondly, it will be important to secure a good one early, because if you’re in a league with savvy drafters it won’t be uncommon to see them hoard.

If you’re expecting everyone to just take one gun ruck you might end up in trouble when they take a second quality ruck to give themselves either a quality back-up or a trading chips – that’s when you might have to pay a little extra to get a decent ruckman.

Also consider that five of the rucks are dual position and you’d likely play them in the forward line to double up on your hitout stats.

101-200

By the time you’re out to Pick 200 you should ideally have all of your starters sorted if you’re in a ten team league. So this is the stage where you start looking to fill specific needs based on how your squad is balanced after the first 100 picks.

This section of the rankings is a lot more defence heavy than the first half. The reason being is that after the top 10 defenders there’s a bit of a drop off in numbers and then a group of very even players. In the first 100 picks we saw 13 defenders and in the next 100 you’ll see 31 defenders.

This represents the point in the draft where you will probably need to focus on loading up on a very even group of defenders, considering the elite ones are so scarce and most likely spread out across the teams in your league.

The other thing you’ll notice in the 101-200 group is the increasing appearance of “specialist” players, such as Milne for his goals or Howlett for his tackles. Once again, this is also the part of the draft where you can start looking towards topping up certain categories before you start drafting your bench cover.

Notes 16/2/13

The difference between category and point scoring leagues have been discussed of Footy Tragic for a number of weeks now. Today we bring to you a sample of our rankings for the 2013 season. The two main things you’re looking for in your early draft selections are players who put up high numbers in a lot of categories and players with a rare point of difference. The bulk of this list is players who are strong across all categories, while the rucks and forwards tend to be the ones that provide a point of difference with hitouts or score.

Your draft strategy will need to take into consideration that 40+ goal scorers are quite rare. Only 16 players topped that number, so you might want to consider wrapping one or two up early to give yourself an edge in a difficult category. Conversely, it might be a category that you choose to put no time into at all and hope for the best, but concede you’ll probably lose it most weeks – it’s a legitimate strategy to focus your attention on winning eight other categories. We won’t go as far as calling it tanking though – that’s a dirty word!

As we reveal more and more of our list we’ll go into more detail about the process of creating this list. We hope you enjoy and feel free to direct any questions (or gripes) on Twitter to @footytragic or @dpfisher31. We’re more than happy to get into some discussion about our rankings.

We have our first look at teams for 2013 and there’s plenty of rookies on offer for the triple header on Friday night. Rookie priced players are highlighted in yellow. Collingwood have named a 30 man squad, with Essendon and the Bulldogs each naming 34 man squads, so it’s more of a question of who isn’t named!

COLLINGWOOD / BULLDOGS /ESSENDON (Fri night – Etihad Stadium)

COLLINGWOOD
2. Jordan Russell, 3. Brent Macaffer, 5. Nick Maxwell, 7. Andrew Krakouer, 8. Heritier O’Brien, 9. Martin Clarke, 10. Scott Pendlebury, 11. Jarryd Blair, 14. Clinton Young, 15. Jarrod Witts, 16. Nathan Brown, 17. Dayne Beams, 18. Darren Jolly, 19. Jamie Elliott, 20. Ben Reid, 21. Quinten Lynch, 22. Steele Sidebottom, 25. Ben Hudson, 26. Ben Johnson, 28. Ben Sinclair, 32. Travis Cloke, 36. Dane Swan, 37. Kyle Martin, 38. Peter Yagmoor, 39. Heath Shaw, 40. Paul Seedsman, 41. Sam Dwyer, 45. Jack Frost, 46. Marley Williams, 48. Caolan Mooney

Collingwood seem to be giving Alex Fasolo and Alan Didak an extra week, while Dale Thomas (ankle) and Luke Ball (knee) are unavailable. Thomas is in doubt for Round 1, or at the very least he will be extremely underdone, while Ball is hoping to play late in the NAB Cup. Three first year rookies in Martin, Dwyer and Frost are all named, along with four familiar faces – just not so in a Pies jumper, with Russell, Young, Lynch and Hudson donning the black and white for the first time.

WESTERN BULLDOGS
1. Jarrad Grant, 2. Robert Murphy, 3. Mitch Wallis, 4. Daniel Cross, 5. Matthew Boyd, 6. Luke Dahlhaus, 7. Shaun Higgins, 10. Easton Wood, 11. Jack Macrae, 13. Daniel Giansiracusa, 14. Clay Smith, 15. Jason Tutt, 16. Ryan Griffen, 17. Adam Cooney, 19. Liam Jones, 20. Daniel Pearce, 21. Tom Liberatore, 22. Dylan Addison, 27. Will Minson, 29. Tory Dickson, 30. Christian Howard, 31. Tom Young, 32. Michael Talia, 33. Nick Lower, 37. Lukas Markovic, 38. Dale Morris, 39. Jason Johannisen, 42. Liam Picken, 43. Jack Redpath, 44. Brett Goodes, 45. Tom Campbell, 46. Lin Jong, 47. Mark Austin, 49. Ayce Cordy

The Bulldogs are holding a few of their kids back for the later stages of the NAB Cup with Jake Stringer, Lachie Hunter, Josh Prudden and Nathan Hrovat (quad) being given an extra two weeks before the sides next game. The sixth pick in the National Draft Jackson Macrae will get a look in, as will mature aged rookie Brett Goodes. Koby Stevens and Jordan Roughead were two . It’s great to see Dale Morris make a long awaited return to the AFL arena.

ESSENDON
1. Michael Hibberd, 2. Tom Bellchambers, 5. Brent Stanton, 7. Leroy Jetta, 9. Brendon Goddard, 10. Nick O’Brien,
12. Stewart Crameri, 14. Jason Ashby, 15. Courtenay Dempsey, 16. Tayte Pears, 18. Michael Hurley, 19. David Hille, 20. Jackson Merrett, 21. Dyson Heppell, 22. Jake Carlisle, 23. David Myers, 24. Alex Browne, 25. Ariel Steinberg, 26. Cale Hooker, 27. Luke Davis, 28. Elliott Kavanagh, 29. Alwyn Davey, 30. Paddy Ryder, 31. Dustin Fletcher, 33. Dylan Van Unen, 34. Kyle Hardingham, 35. Martin Gleeson, 36. Lachlan Dalgleish, 38. Nick Kommer 39. Heath Hocking, 42. Nathan Lovett-Murray, 45. Hal Hunter, 46. Mark Baguley, 47. Cory Dell’Olio

Jobe Watson (knee), David Zaharakis (quad) and Jake Melksham (hand) are the two biggest exclusions for the Dons, but fans will be delighted to see Goddard in their colours for the first time. They’ve held highly rated father/son pick Joe Daniher back, while Ben Howlett, David Hille and Scott Gumbleton will also watch from the stands. Mature aged recruit Nick Kommer will be one to keep an eye on, while Van Unen and Ashby are two other first year players to get named.

WEST COAST / FREMANTLE / GEELONG (Sat night – Paterson’s Stadium)

WEST COAST
1. Mitchell Brown, 2. Mark LeCras , 3. Andrew Gaff, 7. Chris Masten, 8. Beau Waters, 10. Scott Selwood, 11. Matt Priddis, 12. Sharrod Wellingham , 13. Luke Shuey, 14, Jacob Brennan, 15. Jamie Cripps, 16. Eric Mackenzie, 17. Josh Kennedy,  18. Bradd Dalziell, 19. Adam Carter, 22. Callum Sinclair, 23. Darren Glass, 25. Shannon Hurn, 26. Sam Butler, 27. Jack Darling, 28. Ashley Smith, 29. Scott Lycett, 30. Blayne Wilson, 31. Will Schofield, 32. Andrew Embley,  33. Josh Hill, 34. Mark Hutchings, 35. Patrick McGinnity, 36. Fraser McInnes,  37. Adam Selwood, 40. Cale Morton,  42. Jeremy McGovern, 43. Ashton Hams, 46. Simon Tunbridge

As has been well documented, Nic Naitanui will be sitting out after groin surgery in November. Dean Cox (finger) will also sit this one out, leaving the ruck work mostly to youngsters Scott Lycett and Callum Sinclair. Apart from those two (considering Naitanui is in doubt for Round 1) there isn’t a lot of other really high priority rookies in this line-up. It’s good to see Mark LeCras back out there, but Daniel Kerr, Mark Nicoski and Matt Rosa will all sit it out. Sharrod Wellingham, Jamie Cripps and Cale Morton will wear an Eagles jumper for the first time.

GEELONG
1. Mitch BROWN, 2. Billie SMEDTS, 3. Jimmy BARTEL, 5. Travis VARCOE, 7. Harry TAYLOR, 11. Joel COREY, 12. Trent WEST, 13. Tom LONERGAN, 14. Joel SELWOOD, 15. Jordan SCHRODER, 19. Taylor HUNT, 20. Steve JOHNSON, 21. Jordan MURDOCH, 22. Mitch DUNCAN, 23. Josh CADDY, 25. Jared RIVERS, 26. Tom HAWKINS, 27. Mathew STOKES, 28. Allen CHRISTENSEN, 29. Cameron GUTHRIE, 31. James PODSIADLY, 32. Steven MOTLOP, 33. George HORLIN-SMITH, 34. Josh WALKER, 36. Brad HARTMAN, 37. Cameron EARDLEY, 38. Jackson SHERINGHAM, 39. Shane KERSTEN, 40. Jackson THURLOW, 41. Jesse STRINGER, 42. Ryan BATHIE, 44. Corey ENRIGHT, 45. Joel HAMLING, 46. Mark BLICAVS

Travis Varcoe will have a run after his 2012 season lasted about 15 minutes due to an ongoing foot injury. There’s plenty of other big guns having a rest or are unavailable for the Cats, including Josh Hunt, James Kelly and Paul Chapman having the weekend off. With Hamish McIntosh (knee), Dawson Simpson (back) and Nathan Vardy all out, Trent West will do the bulk of the ruck work, maybe with help from Josh Walker and Ryan Bathie. There’s been a lot of positive noise coming out of Kardinia Park about first year half back Jackson Thurlow from Launceston.

FREMANTLE
1. Hayden Ballantyne, 3. Zac Dawson, 4. Jayden Pitt, 5. Garrick Ibbotson, 6. Danyle Pearce, 8. Nick Suban, 9. Matt de Boer, 10. Michael Walters, 11. Tom Sheridan, 12. Jonathon Griffin, 13. Tendai Mzungu, 17. Hayden Crozier, 18. Luke McPharlin, 21. Michael Barlow, 22. Tanner Smith, 23. Chris Mayne, 25. Josh Mellington, 26. Kepler Bradley, 28. Peter Faulks, 31. Aaron Sandilands, 32. Stephen Hill, 33. Cameron Sutcliffe, 34. Lee Spurr, 35. Haiden Schloithe, 36. Alex Silvagni, 37. Michael Johnson, 38. Jack Hannath, 39. Sam Menegola, 41. Paul Duffield, 44. Jesse Crichton, 46. Clancee Pearce

Matthew Pavlich, David Mundy, Nathan Fyfe and Ryan Crowley lead the outs for Freo, but Aaron Sandilands is named to play. If you were reading the above summaries you’ll have noticed that both Geelong and West Coast are heading in with severely depleted ruck stocks – good luck, fellas! Jonathon Griffin and mature aged recruit Jack Hannath will no doubt keep Sandi’s minutes fairly low – no need to bust a toe at this time of year. Freo fans will get to see Danyle Pearce and Stephen Hill working in tandem for the first time, which is a very exciting prospect on the open spaces of Subiaco.

ADELAIDE / PORT ADELAIDE / ST.KILDA (Sunday – AAMI Stadium)

ADELAIDE
1. Richard Tambling, 2. Brad Crouch, 4. Josh Jenkins, 6. Luke Thompson, 8. Lewis Johnston, 10. Matthew Jaensch, 11. Matthew Wright, 12. Daniel Talia, 14. David Mackay, 15. Angus Graham, 16. Luke Brown, 18. Graham Johncock, 20. Sam Siggins, 21. Rory Atkins, 22. Andy Otten, 26. Richard Douglas, 27. Tom Lynch, 28. Cam Ellis-Yolmen, 29. Sam Kerridge, 31. Jarryd Lyons, 33. Brodie Smith, 35. Shaun McKernan, 36. Brodie Martin, 37. Ian Callinan, 38. Mitch Grigg, 41. Kyle Hartigan, 43. Aidan Riley, 45. Ricky Henderson, 46. Rory Laird, 48. Dylan Orval, 49. Tim McIntyre

It’s a very inexperienced Adelaide side with eight players who have never played for the club named in the squad. A lot of eyes will be on Brad Crouch, who is one of the top rated prospects from this year’s rookie crop. From their best 22 Brent Reilly, Scott Thompson, Nathan van Berlo, Rory Sloane, Taylor Walker, Bernie Vince, Jared Petrenko, Sam Jacobs, Ben Rutten, Patrick Dangerfield and Jason Porplyzia will all be sitting out. It appears to be a legitimate “B” side with the aim of giving game experience to everyone. Nick Joyce and their three rookie listed basketball converts are the only ones without AFL experience to be missing.

PORT ADELAIDE
1. Travis Boak, 3. Campbell Heath, 5. Matthew Broadbent, 6. Angus Monfries, 7. Brad Ebert, 8. Hamish Hartlett, 12. Jackson Trengove, 13. Cameron O’Shea, 14. Paul Stewart, 15. Lewis Stevenson, 16. Oliver Wines, 17. Tom Clurey, 18. Kane Cornes , 20. Chad Wingard, 21. Matt Thomas, 22. Mason Shaw, 24. Nathan Blee, 26. Andrew Moore, 27. Alipate Carlile, 28. Jay Schulz, 29. Jasper Pittard, 30. Sam Colquhoun, 31. Darren Pfeiffer, 32. Jake Neade, 33. Brett Ebert, 34. Jarrad Redden, 36. Jack Hombsch, 37. Kane Mitchell, 38. Ben Newton, 39. Justin Westhoff, 40. Aaron Young, 41. Brendon Ah Chee, 42. Tom Jonas, 43. Daniel Stewart, 46. Justin Hoskin

Port are missing a few bigger name players, like Robbie Gray (knee), John Butcher (hips), Tom Logan and Dom Cassisi all sitting out. There’s a fair bit of rookie interest with Port, especially since there are a few spots in their 22 that can be seized by first year players. Campbell Heath and Lewis Stevenson will be looking to make an impression off half back after crossing over from Sydney and West Coast respectively. Oliver Wines and Kane Mitchell are two enticing prospects, as is the oft injured Jasper Pittard, who is hoping to put an injury interrupted start to his career behind him. There’s not much of Jake Neade, but he’s been impressing in the pre-season, so keep half an eye out for him.

ST KILDA
1. Tom Hickey, 2. Arryn Siposs, 3. Jack Steven, 4. Clint Jones, 5. Ben McEvoy, 6. Sebastian Ross, 8. Trent Dennis-Lane, 9. Tom Lee, 11. Leigh Montagna, 14. Jarryn Geary, 15. Tom Ledger, 16. Jack Newnes, 17. Dylan Roberton, 19. Sam Gilbert, 20. David Armitage, 21. Ahmed Saad, 22. Farren Ray, 23. Justin Koschitzke, 26. Nick Dal Santo, 27. Jason Blake, 29. Jimmy Webster, 30. Brodie Murdoch, 32. Terry Milera, 33. James Gwilt, 34. Nathan Wright, 35. Josh Saunders, 36. Jay Lever, 37. Beau Maister, 38. Sam Dunell, 39. Cameron Shenton, 40. Jordan Staley, 43.Tom Curren, 44. Stephen Milne, 45. Jackson Ferguson

Lenny Hayes, Adam Schneider, Nick Riewoldt, Sean Dempster, Rhys Stanley, Tom Simpkin and Sam Fisher will be missing on Sunday, making their defence practically unrecognisable (not that Stanley has played there much in the past, but he is set to in 2013). Tom Lee will have a lot of responsibility up forward and even though he’s not a high possession player, he does have a knack for hitting the scoreboard. Arryn Siposs has been trialling in Goddard’s old role and had a very good intra club match. In that intra club according to our very own Toby, he witnessed Tom Hickey give Ben McEvoy a bit of a touch up in the ruck, so it will be interesting to see how they go in tandem.

As established in last week’s article, in no particular order Jack Viney, Jaeger O’Meara, Brad Crouch, Oliver Wines and Lachie Whitfield should be the first five rookies off the board around the middle stages of your draft. With the spotlight on them last week today we’ll have a look at other rookie options for you to keep your eye on in the later stages of your draft.

Reinforcing my main point last week, it’s important to not bring an over inflated sense of value towards rookies in your Ultimate Footy draft. It’s a natural product of salary cap games to believe that rookies have better draft value than they actually do.

In 2012 over 100 players averaged 20+ disposals and only four of them were rookies, which was the most in recent history. Toby Greene, Sam Gibson, Stephen Coniglio and Adam Treloar got there, so as you can see a list very skewed towards GWS. As a result it’s not unreasonable to anticipate the number will move back in 2013 to the usual 1-2 range.

Of course, it’s not just about disposals, so here is a table of the best ten fantasy performers, who debuted in 2012 (not taking position scarcity into consideration):

2012 Rookies

* Jonathan Giles averaged 22.1 hitouts, which boosts his standing on that list.

2012 was the deepest year for rookie performance from a statistical point of view in the  past decade. For one, you can see a pretty unique list with seven players from GWS, so given it was their first year and they had a very heavy reliance on rookies I would consider that to be the reason.

Of course, games played are taken into consideration, which is why I rate Adams’ numbers over Coniglio’s, for example.

The numbers were even lower across the board in 2011, with Dyson Heppell the only first year player to average over 20 disposals.

2011 Rookies

You can see the similarities in the 2011 Top 5 to the 2012 Top 5, with the top four having played most of the season and the player in fifth putting up strong numbers in a short space of time. The overall standard of numbers in 2011 is a bit lower though and it’s a similar picture for years prior.

This should give you enough of a form line for what to expect from a first year players in the current climate of the game. In 2012 the ten players on the first table, plus Steven Morris, Brandon Ellis, Clay Smith and Ahmed Saad definitely put up numbers worthy of being picked up in a draft league. Terry Milera and James Magner may have just got a pass mark across the season, while Kyal Horsley Lee Spurr and Dylan Shiel would’ve been worthwhile across a very specific period of time.

It’s tough work for a first year player. Even last year Chad Wingard, who was  Pick 6 and played nearly every game for Port Adelaide didn’t put up good enough numbers to warrant fantasy draft selection.

Here are some guys apart from Viney, O’Meara, Crouch, Wines and Whitfield to consider later in your 2013 Ultimate Footy draft.

Jimmy Toumpas – Melbourne – MID – 18 years

Toumpas has a very rare speed/endurance combination and uses it all of the time. You could actually get tired watching him cover the ground he runs that hard. He plays outside and as a result doesn’t get many tackles, but his mark numbers will be high due to his ability to find space and he can bang a goal from outside 50.

He had a hip operation in June 2012 and has been eased into this pre-season, so keep an eye on him if he gets some action late in the NAB Cup. At worst, his interrupted pre-season may mean he isn’t ready for Round 1, but once he breaks into the team I don’t think he’ll ever see a Casey Scorpions jumper again.

Sam Mayes – Brisbane – MID/FWD – 18 years

Mayes is another kid who has a tremendous tank. He isn’t the quickest player out there, but he’s not what you’d call slow. He played most of his junior football as an undersized key forward due to his marking prowess, but moved more into the midfield in 2012. It was a major adjustment and took a while for the move to really stick, but he started reaping the rewards late in the year.

It’s important to monitor his NAB Cup, because at this stage he’s no lock for Round 1. If he is not taken aback by the step up to AFL level he could be a handy pick for your team. The thing to keep in the back of your mind is that it took him a while to adjust to his change of role in 2012, so will that also mean a slow start to his season this year playing at a higher level?

Joe Daniher – Essendon – FWD – 18 years

Honestly, if you’re in a year to year league you could take or leave Daniher. Prior to Essendon suffering a week from hell, James Hird spoke about how Daniher has really impressed on the track this pre-season. Initial expectations were that he might get a few games here and there, but Hird stated, “certainly we don’t want to ruin him but he’s making us think about playing him a lot more than we were.”

Hird also went on to say that he would start as a forward who could pinch hit in the ruck. He played very little in the ruck at U18 level, only averaging 4.5 hitouts at TAC Cup level. His biggest strength is his marking ability, which will obviously not be as prominent a strength in the AFL as it was in juniors straight away, but he will get there over time.

He is a must have in keeper leagues though. If you are in a keeper league it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t play a single game this year. Just hold onto him and keep him for 2014 and forever more!

Jesse Lonergan – Gold Coast – MID – 18 years

The biggest advantage the boy from Launceston has is his strong, AFL ready body. He had an interrupted start to 2012 due to a knee injury, but he returned half way through the U/18 National Championships and was arguably Tasmania’s best player.

He’s a tough and hard customer who is most often seen at the base of a pack. He’s a first possession player, but is also a very adept tackler. He’s not likely to put up huge mark numbers because spread from the contest isn’t his thing. After losing Josh Caddy, there’s a spot for a bash and crash inside mid and Lonergan will have every chance to take that spot.

Hopefully his body acclimatises to the difference between living in Launceston and the Gold Coast!

Jackson Thurlow – Geelong – DEF – 18 years

Thurlow came into the U18 Championships relatively unknown, but he made a huge impression with his ability to read the play and take intercept marks across half back. Geelong have been impressed with his pre-season and assistant coach Blake Caracella has sung his praises on a number of occasions, including comparing the way he plays to Corey Enright.

Due to the competitive nature of the Cats line-up and the fact they have a lot of options to roll across half back Thurlow is probably the most speculative player profiled. Even if he does get a game he might not end up a main stay in the team, but his numbers stack up and is worth keeping in mind if he has a good NAB Cup.

Nathan Hrovat – Western Bulldogs – MID – 18 years

Hrovat is a little bundle of energy, who plays with 100% energy. He’s only short in stature, but he’s got a solid frame and very good skills on both sides of his body. “The Rat” showed plenty of versatility in 2012, playing for the Northern Knights as an inside mid, but played more of an outside role for Vic Metro.

His ball winning ability is a big strength and he’s got really good game sense. His goal kicking was wayward in the TAC Cup last year, but it doesn’t appear to be a fundamental technical flaw. It was more like he as having a bad trot than anything.

Dean Terlich – Melbourne – DEF – 23 years

This isn’t Terlich’s first crack at the AFL. He spent 2008 on Sydney’s rookie list, but never played a game for them. Originally from NSW and the Murray Bushrangers, Terlich moved over to SA and played four years for Norwood after being delisted by the Swans.

He had an impressive 2012, especially his back half of the year. He was best on ground in Norwood’s premiership playing across half back. He’s another intercept player and has neat foot skills. There was a scare at training recently where he had to be taken to hospital via ambulance, but was later cleared of any damage to his head and neck.

Nick Kommer – Essendon – MID – 22 years

Kommer is a hard working midfielder who has cut his teeth for East Perth for the last two years. He was hovering around the draft radar, but his finish to 2012 was superb. He doesn’t mind having a crack, but interestingly his tackle numbers were very low for most of the year. 37 tackles for the season, but 18 in his last three games.

In late January Jobe Watson talked him up as one to really impress on the track. He hasn’t had a lot of press over the pre-season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on his NAB Cup.

Brett Goodes – Western Bulldogs – DEF/MID – 29 years

Goodes’ long journey to the AFL has been well publicised and is a really fantastic story. He’s been a consistent performer at VFL for the best part of a decade and finally gets his shot. He played wherever he was needed for Williamstown, showing an ability to play in all three areas, but he’s been earmarked for a role across half back in 2013.

Goodes is a physical player and loves to tackle, while a half back role could really benefit his mark numbers.

Kane Mitchell – Port Adelaide – MID – 23  years

Mitchell will come into the AFL possessing one of the biggest engines. He’s got a fairly slight body, so a lot of his pre-season has been to put some bulk on, but he can run all day and he can find the footy. He’s predominantly outside and that work ethic has often seen him make space for himself on the wing playing for Claremont in the WAFL.

Mitchell has been impressing on the track at Port Adelaide and is a big chance to see a lot of senior action in 2013. I wouldn’t expect him to kick 30 goals at AFL level, but he does have that goal kicking element to his game.

Summary

Keep an eye on second year players Sam Docherty from Brisbane and Tom Mitchell from Sydney, neither of them debuted last year and they both belong in this conversation. I could go on and on, but thought I’d leave it to just the ten players. Others to keep in mind are Jake Stringer (Bulldogs), Nick Vlastuin (Richmond), Sam Dwyer (Collingwood), Tom Lee (St.Kilda), Jonathan O’Rourke and Lachie Plowman (both GWS).

Ultimately, you need to balance potential upside vs. a steady performer with good job security. When looking at the numbers rookies have posted in the past two seasons just keep in mind the following 2012 stats from players you might be able to draft after Pick 150.

Random 2012 mid-late selections

It’s not so much the names you need to keep in mind while you’re drafting, it’s the numbers. Out at Pick 200 it might feel time for a rookie, but don’t reach too far if you can get a player firmly entrenched in his sides best 21 that puts up solid, consistent numbers – maybe with a point of difference or two, like Howlett’s tackles or Dempsters’s marks.

Well, what a week.

I’m going to apologise straight off the bat. I’ve been that consumed in the news the last few days that I almost forgot about this article. If it doesn’t live up to the standards, I’m sorry, and yes this is one of those times where I’m writing an article half asleep.

GWS, well what do you say? With only two wins and an average losing margin of 77 points, we could leave this here without any analysis and we’d all come to the same conclusion; they are babies.

A massive 82.7% of their list has played under 20 senior AFL games. Like I said with the Suns last week, they’re not going to rise up the ladder anytime soon. Their experienced talent is either too old to be around when they rise up (Chad Cornes, Dean Brogan, Stephen Gilham, Setanta O’Hailpin), not good enough (Rhys Palmer, Bret Thornton) or pretty young themselves (Callan Ward, Phil Davis, Tom Scully).

The improvement (and when I mean improvement, I mean finals contenders) will come from the 33 players that have played between one and twenty games. I’m of the theory that players start to reach their peak around the 80 to 100 game marks, so you do the math. They’re at the very least three seasons away, and then they will be a scary unit IF they can keep the majority of their good, young players.

The Giants out-stunk the Suns in their respective inaugural seasons, with a percentage of 46.17% compared to 56.27% and 8 losses by 90+ points compared to 4. Having said all that, I’d take the Giants’ list over the Suns’ any day of the week regardless of early results.

Why I prefer the Giants’ list to the Suns’ is because of their list balance. Take a look at the Suns’ depth chart here http://www.footytragic.com/blog/list-analysis/list-analysis-gold-coast-suns/#comments and then scroll down in this article and take a look at the Giants’. The Giants have young depth on every line, but I also think they have the nudge on quality, namely Jeremy Cameron and Jon Patton being the absolute standouts in the key forwards category; a major benefit. The Suns don’t have anyone that looks like they’ll be a consistent goal-kicking threat yet.

There really is no point delving too deep into the stats for the Giants, no point at all. It’s all about the individual players’ performances and forecasting what they’ll do in the coming years.

I mean, over the year, the Giants had a differential of -41.7 points in scores from turnovers, -25.7 points in scores from stoppages, only created 2.5 turnovers a game in their forward line, and spent 14.9% less time in their forward half than their opponent. What do you take from that? It’s not the lack of structure; it’s the experience and ability to implement it for four quarters. The Giants did have some very good first halves. On average they were down by 32.7 points at half time, being within 20 points in 9 of 22 games.

As expected, the Giants ranked 15^th or worse in basically every statistical category under the sun, apart from rebound 50’s (1^st) and being the 3^rd least tackled team in the competition. Both stats are hardly surprising. It was always in their backline, and they rarely had the ball to be tackled. Again, there’s not much to take from that. The good news for Giants’ fans (I only know one) is that as Yazz once said, ‘the only way is up’. Now that bloody song is stuck in my head.

OFF-SEASON

IN: Stephen Gilham, Lachie Whitfield, Jono O’Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Kristian Jaksch, Aidan Corr, James Stewart, Bret Thornton, Joseph Redfern, Zac Williams.

OUT: Stephen Clifton, Rhys Cooyou, Jack Hombsch, James McDonald, Luke Power, Tim Segrave.

The Giants lost 566 AFL games combined from James McDonald and Luke Power over the off-season due to retirement and a talented key defender in Jack Hombsch. Apart from that, they added another five first-round draft picks and two experienced key defenders in Bret Thornton and Stephen Gilham.

Lachie Whitfield was the ultimate coup, being the number one pick in the 2012 draft, complimenting GWS’ raft of inside midfielders with his very good outside ability. Jono O’Rourke doesn’t quite have the class of Whitfield, but he does a similar job, and Lachie Plowman will become a tallish running defender long term. I’m still not quite sure Plowman was worth the number three draft pick, but we’ll re-assess in a few years!

Aidan Corr is an athletic key defender to replace Jack Hombsch and Kristian Jaksch is a key utility who can play either end of the ground, but I think his best spot is at centre half back with his very good kicking skills.

You’d expect Lachie Whitfield to have the most impact out of the draftees, and he’s excelled as an under age player throughout his junior career, so the step up shouldn’t be too difficult for him.

DEFENCE

You can’t really say the Giants have a ‘defence’ yet. These are the players who had a run through there in 2012;

Luke Power
Jack Hombsch
Curtly Hampton
Shaun Edwards
Josh Bruce
Sam Frost
Tim Mohr
Phil Davis
Sam Darley
Mark Whiley
Chad Cornes
Tomas Bugg
Matthew Buntine
Adam Kennedy
Sam Reid
Adam Tomlinson
Nick Haynes
Tim Golds

That’s a grand total of 18 players, and I didn’t even include some midfielders who had brief stints off the half-back flank in some games.

Phil Davis was the bookend, playing all 22 games. He did concede lots of goals, but who wouldn’t? With more help his defensive game will only get better, but he also did his bit offensively, averaging 14.9 disposals, 5.5 marks (1.1 contested), 2 intercepted marks and 3.3 inside 50’s. His efficiency was down 9% on his time at the Crows, but again, with better players and systems around him eventually, it will only go back up. He’ll prove to be well worth the cash GWS invested in him.

The other reliable defender they have is Chad Cornes, although now at 33 years of age, injury is catching up with him. He played 16 games in 2012 and now will miss the start of this season with a knee injury.

Stephen Gilham and Bret Thornton were two experienced pick ups to help out with their young defence, but both aren’t traditional key defenders who are particularly strong one on one.

Tim Mohr’s the obvious guy to directly help Phil Davis, because of his age (24) and he did show a very good ability to play on the opposition’s key forwards and restrict them. He averaged 5.4 spoils a game and also 1.2 intercepted marks going with his excellent offensive ability as well, showcasing his long boot on a multitude of occasions. He kicked the ball at 79.6% and averaged 3.6 rebound 50’s; a solid output for a full back.

There are no ‘locks’ in the GWS backline for the small defender position apart from maybe Matthew Buntine who only played 6 games and Tomas Bugg who may very well be played in the midfield in the future. Adam Kennedy got a good run through there, playing 15 games, Curtly Hampton 17 games and Sam Darley 9 games.

You’d think if fit, Buntine will play off the half-back flank for the majority of the season, and he’ll only improve on his output in 2012. We didn’t get to see his kicking ability too much, as he handballed more than he kicked, but you’d hope they free him up and let him use his strengths.

Adam Kennedy can find the ball, and showed that particularly early in the season with 28 possessions on debut, but then got given shut down roles and only went on to average 13.8 disposals and only 1.9 rebound 50’s a game. His ball use was very safe, with an efficiency rate of 80.2%.

Sam Darley was much-hyped in the pre-season, representing a similar type to Hawthorn’s Grant Birchall with his run off the backline. Due to injury and form he only managed the 9 games but he did show what he is capable of as a rebounding defender, averaging 14.2 disposals, 3.6 marks and 3.4 rebound 50’s a game.

Tomas Bugg was definitely one of the most impressive Giants in 2012, playing 18 games and stopping some of the opposition’s better players. He started better than he finished, but still managed to average 17.6 disposals, 4 marks and 3.2 tackles a game showing his ability offensively and defensively. Long term you’d think he becomes a midfielder, but at the moment, even though he’s inexperienced, his stability will be needed in the backline.

MIDFIELD

This is definitely the scariest line in the future GWS team. Just ponder these names and look forward five years;

Callan Ward
Tom Scully
Stephen Coniglio
Dylan Shiel
Dom Tyson
Lachie Whitfield
Toby Greene
Taylor Adams
Will Hoskin-Elliot
Adam Treloar
Jono O’Rourke
Liam Sumner
Devon Smith
Nick Haynes

There are 14, ‘potential’ above average midfielders at their disposal; scary. Five or six is enough to give you a Premiership, but 14? That’s not including Anthony Miles and Jacob Townsend who also showed signs of being very good players.

Callan Ward was enormous in 2012, and showed he was an astute pick up by the Giants despite the criticism they copped because he hadn’t ‘broken out’ yet. Well, it was always going to happen, and he did. He became elite, averaging 24.4 disposals (12.4 contested) at a brilliant 70.1% efficiency, with 4.3 marks, 5.1 clearances, 5 tackles and 3.9 inside 50’s a game. His consistency was to be admired; only going below 20 disposals in 3 games despite copping a tag most weeks. Ward is only 22 years old, so there is still improvement to come. His price tag was worth it, he’s a gun.

Speaking of price tags, you have Tom Scully. I’ve never understood the hate. Take a look at your 20 year old self, with the money that was dangled in front of him, and tell me you wouldn’t do the same. Apparently he can’t play footy either. Huh? In his three seasons (yes, only three), he’s never averaged under 20.3 disposals. Much of his short career has been hampered by a knee injury, but he still managed 19 games in 2012. I’m not sure what people expected of him in 2012 to be honest. The chances are he’ll never live up to his contract, but there are probably only two players in the AFL that are worth that money anyway. The money’s not the point. He is going to be (arguably already is) a damn good quality footballer, who yes, is overpaid, but so what? That’s the expansion factor, not his fault. Providing he’s fit, I’m predicting he’ll elevate himself in the competition in 2013 in a big way. Defensively (ironically the part people don’t notice) he’s been on the ball since he came into the league, but we haven’t seen the best of him offensively. It’s time for Sheeds to release the shackles on Scully, and we’ll see an absolute star.

Toby Greene was statistically one of the best 18 year old footballers we’ve seen in the AFL. He’s built like a jockey, but he couldn’t stop finding the footy, averaging 28.4 disposals, 4.9 clearances, 3.3 tackles, 3.3 inside 50’s and also involving himself in 32% of GWS’ scoring chains, putting him only behind Gary Ablett. His kicking was a problem though, only going at 50.2% and averaged 4.1 clangers a game, ranking 3^rd in the competition. He’s a great kid who’s worked super hard on his game since U/16 level, so I have no reason to believe he won’t improve on his kicking.

Adam Treloar started slowly but then worked up and ended up having just as good a season as Toby Greene. In his last 6 games of the season, he averaged 27.3 disposals, 7.3 marks, 2.2 tackles, 3 inside 50’s and 1 goal. His kicking was a highlight, going at 70.4% but only 34.4% of his possessions were in a contested situation. You’d also expect him to improve on his 1.9 clearances, 2.7 tackles and 2.6 inside 50’s a game in the future.

These guys were well supported by Stephen Coniglio, Taylor Adams, Dylan Shiel, Dom Tyson and Will Hoskin-Elliot at times through 2012. They only averaged 11.8 games between them, but each showed that they will not only be good, but they’ll be close to elite.

Hoskin-Elliott displayed his ability with a 5 goal haul against Gold Coast off a wing, but consistency will be his biggest task to overcome. He ranked poor in most categories, averaging only 2.2 inside 50’s, 1 rebound 50, 0.7 clearances and 1.2 tackles plus only getting the ball 11.6 times a game with an uncontested possession rate of 60.3% which he’d want to improve since that’s his strength.

Dylan Shiel, an absolute bull at the contest, suffered a lot of injuries through the pre-season and had a disrupted year as well, only managing 12 games. Still, he showed his ball-winning ability and defensive attributes, averaging 19 disposals, 3 clearances and 3.8 tackles, plus also going head to head with some of the best midfielders in the game.

Stephen Coniglio also started slowly, being used sparingly in the midfield and mostly played off the half-forward flank to start the season but then he got released in round six against Carlton, finishing off the season with 7 of his last 8 games over 19 disposals. He never got a good run at it in the second half of the season due to injury, playing only in rounds 15, 16 and 19, yet he was prominent in all those games. He averaged 21.5 disposals a game but his kicking was only going at 58.6% despite winning 66.8% of his disposals in an uncontested situation. That’ll definitely improve, as will his goal kicking. He only managed 2 goals in his 12 games. His 2.8 clearances and 2.6 tackles a game will no doubt increase as well.

Taylor Adams was extremely impressive, having a similar season to what Dion Prestia did at the Suns in his first dig. He went under the radar I thought, due to his unfashionable, in and under approach, but his 19.9 disposals, 3.9 clearances and 3.5 tackles a game are nothing to be sneezed at for a 19 year old.

It is no secret I have a huge man crush on Dom Tyson, but unfortunately he didn’t help me out in 2012. He had his fair share of injuries, and now he’s out until at least May. Tyson is all class, and I often compare him to Scott Pendlebury, but due to only 10 games of which 3 were substitute affected in 2012, we didn’t get to see it all that much. He did have three games where he showed glimpses;

Round 7 vs Gold Coast: 21 disposals, 80.9% efficiency, 8 marks, 6 inside 50’s, 4 clearances, 1 goal.
Round 22 vs St Kilda: 24 disposals, 79.2% efficiency, 8 marks, 4 tackles.
Round 23 vs North Melbourne: 26 disposals, 73.1% efficiency, 5 marks, 1 goal, 3 inside 50’s.

The kid’s a gun.

Anthony Miles is the other mystery of the GWS midfield. He’s can find the footy at will but the word around was that he wasn’t on side with the coaches at times which is the reason why he didn’t get consistent games despite dominating in the NEAFL.

In terms of the ruck, Jon Giles was one of the stories of the season. He came in and really became an attacking force in the ruck, kicking 18 goals. He averaged 14.3 disposals, 3.5 marks, 22.1 hit outs and 3.5 clearances a game. After spending time at Port Adelaide, he’s now 25 years old and in the peak of his career. He demanded a better contract and got one. He’ll only get better.

FORWARD LINE

A forward line that will include Jeremy Cameron and Jon Patton in the future is good enough already. Devon Smith will be the small forward and then they have the ‘X-Factor’ (I hate saying that) of Nathan Wilson and Curtly Hampton plus the never ending list of midfielders they have at their disposal. It’s a dangerous mix that probably lacks one more genuine forward.

Having said all that, and despite Jeremy Cameron’s 29 goal debut season, they won’t tormenting opposition defences for at least another few years.

Jeremy Cameron was outstanding for a 19 year old, averaging 10 disposals, 5 marks (1.6 contested) and 1.8 goals a game, but there’s still a lot of developing to do.

The same goes for Jon Patton, who was hampered by injury all season. I put him in the same boat as Tom Hawkins. We won’t see what he’s capable of until he’s at least 24 years old and most likely he’ll cop some criticism along the way, just because people love to do that when a highly touted player isn’t dominating from the get-go.

Out of the smalls, Devon Smith had a great first season. He was an absolute ball magnet at U/18 level, but also hit the scoreboard heavily. He showed that last season, despite his inaccuracy, kicking 10 goals and 19 behinds. His forward pressure was outstanding, averaging 4.3 tackles a game. He definitely has the scope to become a goal kicking midfielder, but his contribution up forward as the main small forward is much needed.

Kristian Jaksch and Adam Tomlinson are candidates for the third tall role, but personally I see both as more suited to defence.

CONCLUSION

Don’t expect much. We’ll see some really exciting patches here and there, but it won’t come together for a long time.

They’re on the right track to becoming a scary team but opposition clubs will be targeting their young guns heavily too. The good news for them is that they’ll receive healthy compensation for whoever they lose and it’ll just be an endless cycle of early draft picks for the Giants.

Rookie watch

While most of this article is tailored for Ultimate Footy’s category based draft leagues, you’ll find a lot of the information is transferable to other formats of fantasy football.

When it comes to your draft league it’s always an interesting decision on when you start looking at the raw and inexperienced kids. You need to balance off solid and steady veterans in the middle of your draft, with the potential upside that a rookie brings.

The important thing is to not jump too early on rookies if you’re in a standard draft league. There are options to join a “keeper” league and in that format you get the chance to protect a certain amount of players (set by your league commissioner) at the end of the season.

In keeper formats top quality rookies have more draft value, because you’re drafting for the future as well as for 2013. Most leagues, however, are year to year, where the slate is wiped clean at the end of the season, so you’re picking players solely on their anticipated output for 2013.

Rookie history

First of all, it’s important to understand the history of how first year players score. Most fantasy coaches might have the misconception, based on playing salary cap games (such as Dream Team or SuperCoach) that rookies have a far greater value than they actually do.

There are a handful of recent examples of first year players having Top 100 draft value, but they’re pretty few and far between.

Best performed first year players

The point is that generally there’s usually only one rookie a year that puts up really strong numbers.  To put it into context in 2012, David Armitage had 20.3 disposals, 4.8 marks, 4.7 tackles and kicked 17.8.110 and he’s someone you imagine would get drafted in the 75-125 range.

Your absolute top flight rookie this year, in hindsight will have likely to been worth around Pick 100, but there’s a huge risk in taking someone without a proven track record, so the uncertainty bumps a rookies value down a bit more.

We can look back and say those guys would have been good picks, but the practicality of it is that there are a few bolters in the above table. Greene was considered behind Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson, in fantasy circles anyway.

We know now that Dayne Zorko would’ve been a great get last year, but coming off hip surgery, no pre-season and missing the first six rounds of the season, I can only imagine a player in Zorko’s situation going mostly as a late pick, or even undrafted. Basically, he exceeded expectations big time.

We can have short memories in fantasy footy, but be careful when trying to pick the break out rookie too early. Last year the pre-season hype was not about Greene just because a few were thought to be ahead of him and not about Zorko due to injury.

This year’s “plug and play” guys

This year there are a few good options that are capable of putting these numbers in their first year – capable of that and actually doing it are two different things though. Based on the above table we’re looking for someone to average low 20s in disposals, five marks, four tackles and roughly ten goals.

Jaeger O’Meara – Gold Coast – MID

He was hot property for the mini draft in 2011 and with their arsenal of top picks, Gold Coast were in the best position to trade for his rights.

O’Meara is an elite talent, who boasts tremendous pace, endurance and skill. He spent 2012 up on the Gold Coast training with the team and playing occasionally with their reserves in the NEAFL (he was ineligible to play AFL due to his younger age).

Basically having a gap year as an 18 year old meant that he spent a lot of time in the gym and has a significantly more AFL ready body than most others entering the system.

His WAFL debut for Perth in 2011 was something to behold. He had 15 possessions, four marks, four tackles and kicked 4.0. For a 17 year old playing senior footy, it was a brilliant debut.

Jack Viney – Melbourne – MID

Viney had a similar sort of situation to O’Meara in 2012, in that he had already moved on from junior footy and being a father/son prospect at the Dees he played a handful of games for their VFL affiliate, the Casey Scorpions. He also represented Vic Metro at the U/18 National Championships and played for Carey Grammar, as he finished Year 12.

He’s a tough as nails midfielder, who is ready to have an impact at AFL level. While he isn’t the tallest kid, standing at 178cm, he is strong around the contest and an excellent first possession player. Getting games shouldn’t be a problem for him this year, so he ticks that box too.

Oliver Wines – Port Adelaide – MID

Ollie Wines and Jack Viney are best mates from their days of living in Echuca. Viney has moved around a bit since their friendship formed as early teens but they’ve remained tight.

Like his mate, Wines shirks for no one. He’s one tough unit and very good at getting the first possession out of a stoppage. You can see how he slots into the Port Adelaide midfield and he already has a strong mature body.

One thing to look out for with first possession players is that their tackle numbers can suffer (they’re generally the one getting tackled). This isn’t the case with Wines though and as much as he wins the hard ball he gets more than his share of tackles in tight.

Brad Crouch – Adelaide – MID

Like O’Meara, Crouch was a mini draft selection, so he has spent the year in Adelaide getting his body AFL ready. He had a hamstring issue through May and June last year, but ended up playing 17 senior games for West Adelaide, including a losing Grand Final.

Like those above, he’s built tough. He’s got a mature body and relishes the contest. You might notice that as a theme for players ready to stand up to the rigours of a first year in the AFL.

It’s going to be a tough midfield for Crouch to break into, but all reports coming out of the Crows are that they have very high hopes for him.

Lachie Whitfield – GWS – MID

The biggest strength to Whitfield’s game is his running capacity. He’s got an enormous tank and while he isn’t the quickest guy out there, he knows where to run to get the ball. I wouldn’t call him exclusively inside or outside midfielder, but he’s very footy smart and can get the ball a variety of ways.

The way GWS rotated their players last year puts some uncertainty in my mind. This time last year we would’ve all been anticipating Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson to play most of the season, but they played 12 and 10 games respectively. They did still have four rookies play 18+ games (Devon Smith, Toby Greene, Tomas Bugg and Adam Treloar).

Whitfield is definitely one to watch in the pre-season though, because he’s got fantastic poise and class that could see him take to AFL like a duck to water.

Summary

An average 20 touches, five marks, four tackles and maybe a bonus ten goals for the year is what you’re aiming for. As your draft pans out, make sure you have these numbers in mind, so you can compare them to experienced players that you have a more accurate form line for.

Next week

After covering off on the top prospects for 2013, next week I’ll discuss more rookie options that should be on your radar after this top group.

As you may have read, Ultimate Footy have teamed up with Fairfax Media (The Age, SMH, WA Today, Brisbane Times). We’ll also be providing articles throughout 2013 on the Ultimate Footy game, such as player trends, value picks up and underperformers to give you the inside running to run your league.*

There’s a variety of options and we’ll cater for a few variations across our leagues, so if you want to join a category based league or a points based league we’ll have you covered. With so many customisable features we’re looking forward to the different setups, as well as trying to pit our drafting up against our very competitive readership!

We’re in the process of setting up Ultimate Footy leauges, so hit us up in the comments section, on Twitter @FootyTragic or Facebook to let us know if you want in.

* Except for Footy Tragic leagues, because it’s kind of assumed that people who read Footy Tragic will be reading the same articles. Also, if the people writing them are in your league they might just swoop in and act on the advice they’re giving out…