Footy Tragic

If there is one thing you want to take into your Ultimate Footy draft it is this PDF.

We have compiled pre-season notes on injury, form and role changes for 350+ players across the league. As the draft period really kicks in for Ultimate Footy, make sure you have the most up to date news.
(We apologise for the separate PDF’s, we are working on getting that issue fixed)

Ultimate Footy Player Notes Adelaide-North Melbourne

Ultimate Footy Player Notes Port Adelaide

Ultimate Footy Player Notes Richmond-St.Kilda

Ultimate Footy Player Notes Sydney

Ultimate Footy Player Notes West Coast-Western Bulldogs

2013 FOOTY TRAGIC TOP 100 FOR ULTIMATE FOOTY CATEGORY LEAGUES

The two players that have moved into the Top 50 are at the bottom there – Paul Chapman and Nick Riewoldt. They were a bit unlucky to miss out last week, but with two players dropping out they were the next two to jump up. Obviously their goal scoring is a big advantage. Chapman is pretty strong across the board for all categories and while Riewoldt is a bit low in possessions and tackles, he’s so good with marks and score.

On the flip side, the two players to drop out were Aaron Sandilands and Ben McEvoy. Sandilands obviously dropped due to that hamstring injury that will keep him out for the start of the season, but his drop was much more significant because last week I was not as concerned about his injuries, but this feels like a real wake up call and it will hurt if he can only manage 12 games. Over the past two seasons he’s played 25/44 home and away games.

McEvoy slid a bit in the rankings due to the very impressive performance of Tom Hickey over the pre-season. McEvoy is still a very good option, but if Hickey keeps this great form up at the very least he’ll eat into McEvoy’s numbers a bit and at the very most it wouldn’t be too big a stretch to see him taking the #1 mantle at St.Kilda this season. There is a bit of an unknown factor surrounding McEvoy, so it just means to approach him with a little trepidation.

Taking into consideration what I said about McEvoy earlier, I took a similar view with Todd Goldstein. The emergence of Daniel Currie in the first round of the NAB Cup asks just a little question. In his press conference after their double header of games Brad Scott said of Currie, “we were looking for a good back up for Goldstein and we found more than that. He was really impressive tonight.”

Rucks appear over represented considering you only need one on the ground, but for a start this list factors in their pure value, not necessarily their draft position. Secondly, it will be important to secure a good one early, because if you’re in a league with savvy drafters it won’t be uncommon to see them hoard.

If you’re expecting everyone to just take one gun ruck you might end up in trouble when they take a second quality ruck to give themselves either a quality back-up or a trading chips – that’s when you might have to pay a little extra to get a decent ruckman.

Also consider that five of the rucks are dual position and you’d likely play them in the forward line to double up on your hitout stats.

101-200

By the time you’re out to Pick 200 you should ideally have all of your starters sorted if you’re in a ten team league. So this is the stage where you start looking to fill specific needs based on how your squad is balanced after the first 100 picks.

This section of the rankings is a lot more defence heavy than the first half. The reason being is that after the top 10 defenders there’s a bit of a drop off in numbers and then a group of very even players. In the first 100 picks we saw 13 defenders and in the next 100 you’ll see 31 defenders.

This represents the point in the draft where you will probably need to focus on loading up on a very even group of defenders, considering the elite ones are so scarce and most likely spread out across the teams in your league.

The other thing you’ll notice in the 101-200 group is the increasing appearance of “specialist” players, such as Milne for his goals or Howlett for his tackles. Once again, this is also the part of the draft where you can start looking towards topping up certain categories before you start drafting your bench cover.

Notes 16/2/13

The difference between category and point scoring leagues have been discussed of Footy Tragic for a number of weeks now. Today we bring to you a sample of our rankings for the 2013 season. The two main things you’re looking for in your early draft selections are players who put up high numbers in a lot of categories and players with a rare point of difference. The bulk of this list is players who are strong across all categories, while the rucks and forwards tend to be the ones that provide a point of difference with hitouts or score.

Your draft strategy will need to take into consideration that 40+ goal scorers are quite rare. Only 16 players topped that number, so you might want to consider wrapping one or two up early to give yourself an edge in a difficult category. Conversely, it might be a category that you choose to put no time into at all and hope for the best, but concede you’ll probably lose it most weeks – it’s a legitimate strategy to focus your attention on winning eight other categories. We won’t go as far as calling it tanking though – that’s a dirty word!

As we reveal more and more of our list we’ll go into more detail about the process of creating this list. We hope you enjoy and feel free to direct any questions (or gripes) on Twitter to @footytragic or @dpfisher31. We’re more than happy to get into some discussion about our rankings.

As established in last week’s article, in no particular order Jack Viney, Jaeger O’Meara, Brad Crouch, Oliver Wines and Lachie Whitfield should be the first five rookies off the board around the middle stages of your draft. With the spotlight on them last week today we’ll have a look at other rookie options for you to keep your eye on in the later stages of your draft.

Reinforcing my main point last week, it’s important to not bring an over inflated sense of value towards rookies in your Ultimate Footy draft. It’s a natural product of salary cap games to believe that rookies have better draft value than they actually do.

In 2012 over 100 players averaged 20+ disposals and only four of them were rookies, which was the most in recent history. Toby Greene, Sam Gibson, Stephen Coniglio and Adam Treloar got there, so as you can see a list very skewed towards GWS. As a result it’s not unreasonable to anticipate the number will move back in 2013 to the usual 1-2 range.

Of course, it’s not just about disposals, so here is a table of the best ten fantasy performers, who debuted in 2012 (not taking position scarcity into consideration):

2012 Rookies

* Jonathan Giles averaged 22.1 hitouts, which boosts his standing on that list.

2012 was the deepest year for rookie performance from a statistical point of view in the  past decade. For one, you can see a pretty unique list with seven players from GWS, so given it was their first year and they had a very heavy reliance on rookies I would consider that to be the reason.

Of course, games played are taken into consideration, which is why I rate Adams’ numbers over Coniglio’s, for example.

The numbers were even lower across the board in 2011, with Dyson Heppell the only first year player to average over 20 disposals.

2011 Rookies

You can see the similarities in the 2011 Top 5 to the 2012 Top 5, with the top four having played most of the season and the player in fifth putting up strong numbers in a short space of time. The overall standard of numbers in 2011 is a bit lower though and it’s a similar picture for years prior.

This should give you enough of a form line for what to expect from a first year players in the current climate of the game. In 2012 the ten players on the first table, plus Steven Morris, Brandon Ellis, Clay Smith and Ahmed Saad definitely put up numbers worthy of being picked up in a draft league. Terry Milera and James Magner may have just got a pass mark across the season, while Kyal Horsley Lee Spurr and Dylan Shiel would’ve been worthwhile across a very specific period of time.

It’s tough work for a first year player. Even last year Chad Wingard, who was  Pick 6 and played nearly every game for Port Adelaide didn’t put up good enough numbers to warrant fantasy draft selection.

Here are some guys apart from Viney, O’Meara, Crouch, Wines and Whitfield to consider later in your 2013 Ultimate Footy draft.

Jimmy Toumpas – Melbourne – MID – 18 years

Toumpas has a very rare speed/endurance combination and uses it all of the time. You could actually get tired watching him cover the ground he runs that hard. He plays outside and as a result doesn’t get many tackles, but his mark numbers will be high due to his ability to find space and he can bang a goal from outside 50.

He had a hip operation in June 2012 and has been eased into this pre-season, so keep an eye on him if he gets some action late in the NAB Cup. At worst, his interrupted pre-season may mean he isn’t ready for Round 1, but once he breaks into the team I don’t think he’ll ever see a Casey Scorpions jumper again.

Sam Mayes – Brisbane – MID/FWD – 18 years

Mayes is another kid who has a tremendous tank. He isn’t the quickest player out there, but he’s not what you’d call slow. He played most of his junior football as an undersized key forward due to his marking prowess, but moved more into the midfield in 2012. It was a major adjustment and took a while for the move to really stick, but he started reaping the rewards late in the year.

It’s important to monitor his NAB Cup, because at this stage he’s no lock for Round 1. If he is not taken aback by the step up to AFL level he could be a handy pick for your team. The thing to keep in the back of your mind is that it took him a while to adjust to his change of role in 2012, so will that also mean a slow start to his season this year playing at a higher level?

Joe Daniher – Essendon – FWD – 18 years

Honestly, if you’re in a year to year league you could take or leave Daniher. Prior to Essendon suffering a week from hell, James Hird spoke about how Daniher has really impressed on the track this pre-season. Initial expectations were that he might get a few games here and there, but Hird stated, “certainly we don’t want to ruin him but he’s making us think about playing him a lot more than we were.”

Hird also went on to say that he would start as a forward who could pinch hit in the ruck. He played very little in the ruck at U18 level, only averaging 4.5 hitouts at TAC Cup level. His biggest strength is his marking ability, which will obviously not be as prominent a strength in the AFL as it was in juniors straight away, but he will get there over time.

He is a must have in keeper leagues though. If you are in a keeper league it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t play a single game this year. Just hold onto him and keep him for 2014 and forever more!

Jesse Lonergan – Gold Coast – MID – 18 years

The biggest advantage the boy from Launceston has is his strong, AFL ready body. He had an interrupted start to 2012 due to a knee injury, but he returned half way through the U/18 National Championships and was arguably Tasmania’s best player.

He’s a tough and hard customer who is most often seen at the base of a pack. He’s a first possession player, but is also a very adept tackler. He’s not likely to put up huge mark numbers because spread from the contest isn’t his thing. After losing Josh Caddy, there’s a spot for a bash and crash inside mid and Lonergan will have every chance to take that spot.

Hopefully his body acclimatises to the difference between living in Launceston and the Gold Coast!

Jackson Thurlow – Geelong – DEF – 18 years

Thurlow came into the U18 Championships relatively unknown, but he made a huge impression with his ability to read the play and take intercept marks across half back. Geelong have been impressed with his pre-season and assistant coach Blake Caracella has sung his praises on a number of occasions, including comparing the way he plays to Corey Enright.

Due to the competitive nature of the Cats line-up and the fact they have a lot of options to roll across half back Thurlow is probably the most speculative player profiled. Even if he does get a game he might not end up a main stay in the team, but his numbers stack up and is worth keeping in mind if he has a good NAB Cup.

Nathan Hrovat – Western Bulldogs – MID – 18 years

Hrovat is a little bundle of energy, who plays with 100% energy. He’s only short in stature, but he’s got a solid frame and very good skills on both sides of his body. “The Rat” showed plenty of versatility in 2012, playing for the Northern Knights as an inside mid, but played more of an outside role for Vic Metro.

His ball winning ability is a big strength and he’s got really good game sense. His goal kicking was wayward in the TAC Cup last year, but it doesn’t appear to be a fundamental technical flaw. It was more like he as having a bad trot than anything.

Dean Terlich – Melbourne – DEF – 23 years

This isn’t Terlich’s first crack at the AFL. He spent 2008 on Sydney’s rookie list, but never played a game for them. Originally from NSW and the Murray Bushrangers, Terlich moved over to SA and played four years for Norwood after being delisted by the Swans.

He had an impressive 2012, especially his back half of the year. He was best on ground in Norwood’s premiership playing across half back. He’s another intercept player and has neat foot skills. There was a scare at training recently where he had to be taken to hospital via ambulance, but was later cleared of any damage to his head and neck.

Nick Kommer – Essendon – MID – 22 years

Kommer is a hard working midfielder who has cut his teeth for East Perth for the last two years. He was hovering around the draft radar, but his finish to 2012 was superb. He doesn’t mind having a crack, but interestingly his tackle numbers were very low for most of the year. 37 tackles for the season, but 18 in his last three games.

In late January Jobe Watson talked him up as one to really impress on the track. He hasn’t had a lot of press over the pre-season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on his NAB Cup.

Brett Goodes – Western Bulldogs – DEF/MID – 29 years

Goodes’ long journey to the AFL has been well publicised and is a really fantastic story. He’s been a consistent performer at VFL for the best part of a decade and finally gets his shot. He played wherever he was needed for Williamstown, showing an ability to play in all three areas, but he’s been earmarked for a role across half back in 2013.

Goodes is a physical player and loves to tackle, while a half back role could really benefit his mark numbers.

Kane Mitchell – Port Adelaide – MID – 23  years

Mitchell will come into the AFL possessing one of the biggest engines. He’s got a fairly slight body, so a lot of his pre-season has been to put some bulk on, but he can run all day and he can find the footy. He’s predominantly outside and that work ethic has often seen him make space for himself on the wing playing for Claremont in the WAFL.

Mitchell has been impressing on the track at Port Adelaide and is a big chance to see a lot of senior action in 2013. I wouldn’t expect him to kick 30 goals at AFL level, but he does have that goal kicking element to his game.

Summary

Keep an eye on second year players Sam Docherty from Brisbane and Tom Mitchell from Sydney, neither of them debuted last year and they both belong in this conversation. I could go on and on, but thought I’d leave it to just the ten players. Others to keep in mind are Jake Stringer (Bulldogs), Nick Vlastuin (Richmond), Sam Dwyer (Collingwood), Tom Lee (St.Kilda), Jonathan O’Rourke and Lachie Plowman (both GWS).

Ultimately, you need to balance potential upside vs. a steady performer with good job security. When looking at the numbers rookies have posted in the past two seasons just keep in mind the following 2012 stats from players you might be able to draft after Pick 150.

Random 2012 mid-late selections

It’s not so much the names you need to keep in mind while you’re drafting, it’s the numbers. Out at Pick 200 it might feel time for a rookie, but don’t reach too far if you can get a player firmly entrenched in his sides best 21 that puts up solid, consistent numbers – maybe with a point of difference or two, like Howlett’s tackles or Dempsters’s marks.

Rookie watch

While most of this article is tailored for Ultimate Footy’s category based draft leagues, you’ll find a lot of the information is transferable to other formats of fantasy football.

When it comes to your draft league it’s always an interesting decision on when you start looking at the raw and inexperienced kids. You need to balance off solid and steady veterans in the middle of your draft, with the potential upside that a rookie brings.

The important thing is to not jump too early on rookies if you’re in a standard draft league. There are options to join a “keeper” league and in that format you get the chance to protect a certain amount of players (set by your league commissioner) at the end of the season.

In keeper formats top quality rookies have more draft value, because you’re drafting for the future as well as for 2013. Most leagues, however, are year to year, where the slate is wiped clean at the end of the season, so you’re picking players solely on their anticipated output for 2013.

Rookie history

First of all, it’s important to understand the history of how first year players score. Most fantasy coaches might have the misconception, based on playing salary cap games (such as Dream Team or SuperCoach) that rookies have a far greater value than they actually do.

There are a handful of recent examples of first year players having Top 100 draft value, but they’re pretty few and far between.

Best performed first year players

The point is that generally there’s usually only one rookie a year that puts up really strong numbers.  To put it into context in 2012, David Armitage had 20.3 disposals, 4.8 marks, 4.7 tackles and kicked 17.8.110 and he’s someone you imagine would get drafted in the 75-125 range.

Your absolute top flight rookie this year, in hindsight will have likely to been worth around Pick 100, but there’s a huge risk in taking someone without a proven track record, so the uncertainty bumps a rookies value down a bit more.

We can look back and say those guys would have been good picks, but the practicality of it is that there are a few bolters in the above table. Greene was considered behind Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson, in fantasy circles anyway.

We know now that Dayne Zorko would’ve been a great get last year, but coming off hip surgery, no pre-season and missing the first six rounds of the season, I can only imagine a player in Zorko’s situation going mostly as a late pick, or even undrafted. Basically, he exceeded expectations big time.

We can have short memories in fantasy footy, but be careful when trying to pick the break out rookie too early. Last year the pre-season hype was not about Greene just because a few were thought to be ahead of him and not about Zorko due to injury.

This year’s “plug and play” guys

This year there are a few good options that are capable of putting these numbers in their first year – capable of that and actually doing it are two different things though. Based on the above table we’re looking for someone to average low 20s in disposals, five marks, four tackles and roughly ten goals.

Jaeger O’Meara – Gold Coast – MID

He was hot property for the mini draft in 2011 and with their arsenal of top picks, Gold Coast were in the best position to trade for his rights.

O’Meara is an elite talent, who boasts tremendous pace, endurance and skill. He spent 2012 up on the Gold Coast training with the team and playing occasionally with their reserves in the NEAFL (he was ineligible to play AFL due to his younger age).

Basically having a gap year as an 18 year old meant that he spent a lot of time in the gym and has a significantly more AFL ready body than most others entering the system.

His WAFL debut for Perth in 2011 was something to behold. He had 15 possessions, four marks, four tackles and kicked 4.0. For a 17 year old playing senior footy, it was a brilliant debut.

Jack Viney – Melbourne – MID

Viney had a similar sort of situation to O’Meara in 2012, in that he had already moved on from junior footy and being a father/son prospect at the Dees he played a handful of games for their VFL affiliate, the Casey Scorpions. He also represented Vic Metro at the U/18 National Championships and played for Carey Grammar, as he finished Year 12.

He’s a tough as nails midfielder, who is ready to have an impact at AFL level. While he isn’t the tallest kid, standing at 178cm, he is strong around the contest and an excellent first possession player. Getting games shouldn’t be a problem for him this year, so he ticks that box too.

Oliver Wines – Port Adelaide – MID

Ollie Wines and Jack Viney are best mates from their days of living in Echuca. Viney has moved around a bit since their friendship formed as early teens but they’ve remained tight.

Like his mate, Wines shirks for no one. He’s one tough unit and very good at getting the first possession out of a stoppage. You can see how he slots into the Port Adelaide midfield and he already has a strong mature body.

One thing to look out for with first possession players is that their tackle numbers can suffer (they’re generally the one getting tackled). This isn’t the case with Wines though and as much as he wins the hard ball he gets more than his share of tackles in tight.

Brad Crouch – Adelaide – MID

Like O’Meara, Crouch was a mini draft selection, so he has spent the year in Adelaide getting his body AFL ready. He had a hamstring issue through May and June last year, but ended up playing 17 senior games for West Adelaide, including a losing Grand Final.

Like those above, he’s built tough. He’s got a mature body and relishes the contest. You might notice that as a theme for players ready to stand up to the rigours of a first year in the AFL.

It’s going to be a tough midfield for Crouch to break into, but all reports coming out of the Crows are that they have very high hopes for him.

Lachie Whitfield – GWS – MID

The biggest strength to Whitfield’s game is his running capacity. He’s got an enormous tank and while he isn’t the quickest guy out there, he knows where to run to get the ball. I wouldn’t call him exclusively inside or outside midfielder, but he’s very footy smart and can get the ball a variety of ways.

The way GWS rotated their players last year puts some uncertainty in my mind. This time last year we would’ve all been anticipating Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson to play most of the season, but they played 12 and 10 games respectively. They did still have four rookies play 18+ games (Devon Smith, Toby Greene, Tomas Bugg and Adam Treloar).

Whitfield is definitely one to watch in the pre-season though, because he’s got fantastic poise and class that could see him take to AFL like a duck to water.

Summary

An average 20 touches, five marks, four tackles and maybe a bonus ten goals for the year is what you’re aiming for. As your draft pans out, make sure you have these numbers in mind, so you can compare them to experienced players that you have a more accurate form line for.

Next week

After covering off on the top prospects for 2013, next week I’ll discuss more rookie options that should be on your radar after this top group.

As you may have read, Ultimate Footy have teamed up with Fairfax Media (The Age, SMH, WA Today, Brisbane Times). We’ll also be providing articles throughout 2013 on the Ultimate Footy game, such as player trends, value picks up and underperformers to give you the inside running to run your league.*

There’s a variety of options and we’ll cater for a few variations across our leagues, so if you want to join a category based league or a points based league we’ll have you covered. With so many customisable features we’re looking forward to the different setups, as well as trying to pit our drafting up against our very competitive readership!

We’re in the process of setting up Ultimate Footy leauges, so hit us up in the comments section, on Twitter @FootyTragic or Facebook to let us know if you want in.

* Except for Footy Tragic leagues, because it’s kind of assumed that people who read Footy Tragic will be reading the same articles. Also, if the people writing them are in your league they might just swoop in and act on the advice they’re giving out…

Following on from yesterday’s article, where I spoke about position and category scarcity (mainly to do with hitouts and score) I’m moving on to tackles, marks and free kicks to help you understand who some of the specialist players are, and which of the guns boost your numbers in those areas.

TACKLES

102 players had over 4.0 tackles per game – later in the draft you can look for tackle specialists with good job security, like Jordie McKenzie, Ben Howlett, Ben Cunnington, Liam Picken and Clint Jones.

Below is a table of the Top 15 tacklers for 2012 based on tackles per game. Obviously it’s quite a small sample size for Nick Lower, with only three games, but with a move to a new club he could provide some value in the middle stages of your draft.

TOP TACKLERS 2012

There were 38 players in the league who averaged 5.0 tackles or more, so that’s your elite number. As with the table above they’re mostly MID only, but here is a list of guys who averaged more than 5.0 that aren’t just MID eligible (excluding the guys that appeared in first table).

TOP TACKLERS – NOT JUST MID ONLY

As you can see, defenders aren’t putting up huge tackle numbers, but as your draft moves deep you might find a little value out of Alan Toovey and Nick Smith, who averaged 4.0 tackles per game last year.

The defence eligible players who had more than 4.0 per game last year were: Broughton, Andrew Carrazzo, Tendai Mzungu, Hamish Hartlett, Bryce Gibbs, Jed Adcock, Toovey and Smith. Apart from Broughton, Toovey and Smith, all of those guys are MID/DEF eligible.

The other thing you would’ve noticed is the lack of rucks. Shane Mumford led the way with 4.4, followed by Matthew Lobbe (4.0 from nine games), Darren Jolly, Ivan Maric, Ben McEvoy and Jake Spencer (all 3.8).

MARKS

Where defenders fall short in tackles, you might be surprised to hear that eight of the Top 11 for marks per game in 2012 are defence eligible in Ultimate Footy.

When you consider the zones that are set up to try and give extra numbers to defence it makes a lot of sense. A lot of those guys are naturally right up there in marks from opposition kicks.

MARKS 2012

Conversely, because of the zones employed, it’s a lot harder for a forward to take marks these days, so where you might think you’re looking to key forwards for marks and scores, you’ll find defenders on the whole are slightly better for marks.

For forwards, aside from the above in the table, Nick Riewoldt, Drew Petrie, Travis Cloke and Matthew Pavlich were the only key forwards who averaged better than 6.0 marks per game, whereas 20 defence eligible players topped that number.

Only 36 players topped 6.0 marks per game, with Dean Cox (RUC/FWD) the only ruck eligible player in that bracket. Patrick Ryder (RUC/FWD) wasn’t far behind with 5.9.

For midfielders you’re basically looking for 5.0 marks or better for elite numbers (this really illustrates how hard Dane Swan works to find space). Brent Stanton, Matt Rosa and Shaun Grigg were the only MID players to get over 6.0. With Brendon Goddard (DEF/MID) also up there. Brendan Whitecross (MID/FWD) was too, but he is set to miss most of the season with a knee injury.

FREES FOR AND FREES AGAINST

I’ll keep this one pretty brief, as it’s a really hard one to specifically factor into your team and there is a fair amount of luck, considering the standard deviation between the league leader for average frees (for or against) is pretty low.

Basically with free kicks you want to make the category pretty close to neutral to give yourself the best chance each week. In fact, in the custom set up your league commissioner can set it to remove frees for and against, or instead use Free Differential – which is just the sum of your teams Frees For minus your teams Frees Against to come up with a weekly score.

It may come as no surprise that Luke Shuey and Joel Selwood were the top two in the league for frees for, so let’s see who else rated right up there.

FREES FOR 2012 (9+ games)

There isn’t really a specific trend here. I mean, those guys have high numbers compared to everyone else, but even the guy ranked 50^th for Frees For had 1.6, so the deviation isn’t huge, once you get down to Murphy and Ablett. You’ve got six mids who put their crack in and try and get first possession and a couple of rucks, but there are 100 more midfielders that crack in hard and don’t put up these numbers.

On the negative side of things, the stand outs are Lance Franklin, Scott Thompson (Adel) and Jordie McKenzie (remember when I mentioned him as a good tackler?…sometimes he gets a bit too excited).

FREES AGAINST 2012 (9+ games)

Don’t avoid Buddy or Thompson just because they give away frees (by the way, Buddy’s FF of 1.9 is fairly high too). They’re guns in so many other areas, but just consider that they’ll frustrate you each week with a couple of frees against. I wouldn’t avoid any of these guys individually, but try and have balance by not overloading on too many players that gave away 1.5 per game.

You might legitimately decide to not worry about frees against at all and just let it take a natural course. If you have 6/8 from the above list, you’re not destined to lose FA every week. You lower your chances of getting a lot of wins in that category, but with a random element to it you’ll still snag a few wins across the year.

SUMMARY

For your draft it’s all about applying the principles in a balanced fashion across your team. It’s pretty easy to draft for possessions, but if you’re not noticing the effect the sum of your selections has on all of your categories you could get burnt if you draft a team that doesn’t tackle much or is very inaccurate. You’ll basically be 2-0 down before a ball has even been bounced most weeks and then you’re relying more heavily on winning 5/7 other categories to beat your opponent.

It just takes a common sense approach as you’re lining up your picks. “How accurate is my team in front of goals? Does my team win enough free kicks? Oh crap…I’ve only two two defenders and it’s the 13^th round!” The stats will be there for you to view while you’re participating in the draft, so keep referring to them and the balance of your positions and categories.

The best advice I can give is that when the draft is petering out to a “who the hell is that?!” conclusion, that’s your time to target specialists in certain categories, like tackles or marks. Gary Ablett and Dane Swan give you big help across the board, but everyone has a role and some weeks it might be Matt Thomas barely finding the ball, but pulling 9 tackles that will get you a win.

The key fundamental issue for all players new to draft based fantasy is position and score scarcity. Assuming you’ve played AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach before you’re used to loading up on the best players in each position. When you’re competing in a draft against other people it gets a little bit more complicated than that because it becomes harder to balance your squad.

I’m going to mainly focus on the category based game that Ultimate Footy runs, where you’re not just looking for total sums like a DT/SC score. You actually need to beat your weekly opponent in a number of stat categories (with the winner of the most categories registering the “win”), as listed below:

- Kicks
- Handballs
- Marks
- Score (goals*6 + behinds)
- Goal kicking accuracy
- Hitouts
- Tackles
- Frees for
- Frees against (this is a negative category and you want to finish with a lower number)

In this two part article (the second part tomorrow morning) I’ll get right into the balance of your team in preparation for your fantasy draft. Today I’ll look specifically and scoreboard pressure and hitouts. Tomorrow will be about tackles, marks and free kicks.

If you’re just looking at guys who put up the best numbers in 2012, the Top 19 players in the league were all midfielders based on DT scores. What you need to consider with your draft strategy is the scarcity of elite players in other positions, such as Lance Franklin or Dean Cox.

POSITION AND CATEGORY SCARCITY

Naturally you’re looking at players who will help you put up numbers across nine categories. Not one player in the league is elite in every one of those categories, but obviously there are a few star players who will post strong numbers in at least four of them and some specialist players that specifically boost one or two categories.

Gary Ablett and Dane Swan are clear examples of guys that help you out in most categories. For me, they’re comfortably the first two guys that should be picked in a draft. From a pure numbers point of view Matthew Boyd, Scott Pendlebury, Jobe Watson, Trent Cotchin and Dayne Beams weren’t far behind, but there is a huge advantage to be had in chasing someone who is at the top of the tree for his position.

All AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach players would be acutely aware who the guns in defence, forward and ruck are. You would also be just as aware how big the jump is from the very best in those positions and the rest of the pack. This gap makes Dean Cox, Lance Franklin and Brendon Goddard have extra value as clear stand outs in their respective lines.

They might produce less raw numbers than the Top 10 midfielders in your draft, but the point of difference they provide your team makes up for that – furthermore Cox with hitouts and Franklin with goals put up big numbers in a category that only very specific players put good numbers in.

Hitouts and scores are two categories I’m going to really focus on today, because they present the highest concentration of players monopolosing those stats. In 2012, just 2.8% of players accounted for 68.7% of the AFL’s hitouts and 3.9% of players contributed 24.3% of the league’s total score. Therefore, they have more of a premium on them in a draft league, because they go a long way to helping you win one of only nine scoring categories.

By the way, no one was in that top percentage bracket for both hitouts and score, but Cox (five goals short) and Jarryd Roughead (18 hitouts short) were very close.

As an example of the above principle, you might pass on Pendlebury to grab Franklin, but you can balance that off by getting another mid in the second round of your draft. The gap between Pendlebury to, say Joel Selwood or Sam Mitchell isn’t as great as the gap between Buddy and Matthew Pavlich or Taylor Walker. More significantly, the gap between J.Selwood and Mitchell to Scott Selwood and Nick Dal Santo isn’t as great as the gap between Pavlich and Walker to Jonathan Brown and Jay Schulz.

It’s a steeper dip in the numbers the forwards put up, due to the depth of players in the midfield pool. Once 15 midfielders have gone, you’ve still got some very high levels of distribution across a number of categories. Once you’re out to the 15th best forward the numbers are a long way from Buddy, Pav and Tex.

SCORE SCARCITY

Bear in mind, score will be an important category when you’re taking forwards. Steve Johnson and Jeremy Howe each only scored 19 goals in 2012. That hurts Johnson’s value purely as a forward. Luckily he’s a MID/FWD and his disposals and marks put him up there as a Pick 20-35, but you’d want to make sure you bring in other forwards around him that hit the scoreboard more.

Howe is a lower ranked FWD (no dual position) and might not hit the scoreboard too hard for you, so if you take him make sure you’ve made up for it earlier with heavier scorers. Obviously, the advantage is that his mark numbers are quite good, so it’s not like he doesn’t have his perks – I’m just saying, be aware of his deficiencies too.

The opposite concept applies. You can gain an advantage from players that are eligible outside of the forward line that hit the scoreboard and they can be a big difference maker for you on a week to week basis. Below is a table of the Top 8 scorers from 2012 that aren’t FWD only in Ultimate Footy.

DUAL POSITION PLAYERS THAT SCORE

* Harvey is suspended for the first six rounds of the 2013 season

You may not feel there is a lot of value in having a MID/FWD in your midfield, but depending on your team it could be helpful to boost your score column. If you have a choice between Shane Edwards, Hayden Ballantyne and another MID only player – at the sort of draft range you’d be picking those guys you’d lean towards their scoreboard influence as a point of difference.

From there, you would have the flexibility to play them as a FWD or a MID and you might find they’re posting better numbers across the board than your last MID anyway (thus warranting selection in your midfield).

The following players are either MID only or DEF/FWD (the prospect of having a goal kicker in your defence is huge) and kicked over 20 goals in 2012.

DEF OR MID OPTIONS THAT SCORE

Hurley stands out as having inflated value due to his DEF/FWD eligibility. You can sit him in your backline all year and you’re a big chance to get goals from him, especially since Jobe Watson suggested last week that Hurley will start forward this year.

Merrett’s role will be interesting, because you get the feeling he was Mr.Fix It for the Lions key position stocks. I think at the very least you could have a defender that could get swung forward for the Lions and snag a few bonus goals – even if it’s not as many as last year. Roberts-Thomson could be a solid first half prospect, but you feel his spot in the Swans forward line is vulnerable when Kurt Tippett returns from suspension in Round 13.

As for the MID only players, I don’t think there are too many surprises with too many of those guys hitting the scoreboard. Matthew Broadbent was a big surprise for me when going through the numbers. I knew he had a good year, but I was not expecting almost a goal per game!

Players like Tom Hawkins, Stephen Milne and Eddie Betts aren’t overly popular in AFL Dream Team or SuperCoach, but their value is boosted in a category game by being 45+ goal kickers. They reliably hit the scoreboard and even though they’re 12-14 touches a game, they’ll help you win the scoring category (those three happen to be quite accurate too).

HITOUT SCARCITY

Naturally, the same concept applies for your ruckman. In a standard UF league you’ll only have one ruck position, so make him count. There’s enough ruckmen to spread around your whole league, so you don’t necessarily need rush out to get a guy who is RUC only in the early rounds.

What I do recommend is targeting a RUC/FWD in your draft. The value of being able to sit Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui, Jarryd Roughead, Patrick Ryder, David Hale or Shaun Hampson in your forward line gives you a double crack at winning the hitout category each week – the first four names have particularly high value, as they’re pretty handy in a number of other categories.

It’s very important to keep an eye on the ruck stocks in your draft pool. While I’ve already said you don’t need to rush out and grab one early (each team will need one starting ruck in a default set-up), you do want to keep an eye on the tempo of your draft. It can happen with any position, but be aware of there being a “rush” on ruckmen. If they start dropping like flies, it could be a good time for you to act – this goes for any position or stat category that seems to be getting targeted by your league. It does happen, so keep on your toes!

You don’t want to sacrifice your entire set up to do this, but if you have a good RUC/FWD in your forward line and you snag Tom Bellchambers, Shane Mumford or Ben McEvoy a bit later on you’re every chance to beat someone who went and put all of his faith into Aaron Sandilands, Todd Goldstein, Will Minson, Ivan Maric or Sam Jacobs. Those five are likely be be top Top 5 purely for hitouts, but you get a bargain later if you’ve already got a RUC/FWD or two up your sleeve.

NON RUCK WHO MIGHT GET SOME HITOUTS

I just thought I’d touch on a couple of sneaky options who might put up some hitouts, but aren’t ruck eligible. You never know when you might need them!

Charlie Dixon from Gold Coast spent a bit of time as relief ruck last year and is DEF only – he averaged 7.8 hitouts per game.

I know he’s got an 11 week suspension hanging over his head and Adelaide fans might just morally object to drafting him, but Kurt Tippett as a FWD averaged 7.6 hitouts and I see no reason why he wouldn’t do a bit of pinch hit ruckwork in the forward line. Obviously his draft position will be heavily effected by missing half of the season through suspension.

Scott Lycett from West Coast could be a handy FWD early in the year if NicNat misses a few games. He’d be playing as second ruck to Cox, so could sneak some good hitout numbers when he’s selected.

Even though he’s set for a role as a key defender this year Jordan Roughead (DEF/FWD) at 200cm might snag a few hitouts each week, so you can do a lot worse when you’re picking your last defender, especially since his mark numbers since moving to defence late last year were pretty solid (over 5.0 per game in last six weeks).

These guys have value in other categories, so it’s not really what you base drafting them on, but Jordan Lewis, Daniel Cross and Callan Ward like to go third man up at a stoppage and averaged over a hitout per game last year (in fact, Lewis had 40 for the season).

Come back tomorrow for more stats and analysis on preparing for your draft, as I have a look at marks, tackles and free kicks.

Over the next eight weeks I’ll be providing weekly content on draft based fantasy. It will combine a comprehensive education for those who are new to playing draft based competitions in the early weeks, before progressing into specific power rankings and player notes to prepare you for your very own fantasy draft.

For the past four years I’ve been playing draft based AFL fantasy in various forms and I’ve been playing NHL fantasy on Yahoo and ESPN for over ten years, so the concept is something pretty familiar to me.

In 2013 there will be a variety of options openly available to play a draft based AFL fantasy game. Both the AFL and Herald Sun have dabbled a little bit in the past, but appear to be stepping it up by making the competitions free in 2013.

Ultimate Footy have been running draft based fantasy for AFL for five years now. Having worked specifically on that format they have a really sound product with heavily customisable features.

The beauty of draft based fantasy is that it combines raw statistical data with plenty of strategy to get the best mixture of players across all positions. The sense of ownership you have over your players makes if a far more rewarding or dejecting proposition on a week to week basis.

I’ve long held the theory that fantasy competition for AFL will move towards a draft based model and it certainly looks like 2013 will be a step in that direction, so for those who haven’t had a go at that style, I hope you enjoy this series of articles every Saturday morning for the next two months.

The basic concept

For those completely new to draft based fantasy I’ll go through the very basics just briefly.

You’ll be in a league where you take part in a draft and end up with a squad of players 100% unique to you. If Pick 1 is Gary Ablett, then he’s off the board and the person picking second has the pick of the rest.

You will have the ability to pre-rank a list of players to prepare for your draft. This will help you on the night of your draft. If you’re not available on the night of your draft your pre-rank list will act as your buffer, as the draft will automatically select players in the order that you designated.

Don’t stress if you lose a player to injury, or one of your guys just isn’t working out. There will be players left over that didn’t get drafted that are available for you to pick up as free agents. If you’re particularly strong in one position, but need to address a need elsewhere, you can propose a trade to another owner in your league too.

Draft based fantasy brings a lot more players into the game, so start thinking about where guys like Craig Bird or James Polkinghorne fit into your fantasy plans.

Leagues and customisable features

You can create or join a public or private league, so nothing too ground breaking there. Long time DT/SC players would be used to that. Numbers are customisable in draft based competitions though, so you might have a 6, 8 or 10 team league, for example.

The commissioner (person who sets up your league) has a number of features available to customise your league. That might include roster size or the amount of players you can have in each position.

Despite the adjectives the AFL have used in the launch of their fantasy based game, I wouldn’t necessarily call seven different options an overly customisable function. The Herald Sun are yet to announce their features, while Ultimate Footy has given commissioners full flexibility to set how many players you’ll need to pick for each position.

Scoring system in draft based fantasy is generally pretty customisable too. The AFL have already announced that their product will only use Dream Team scores, while you’d expect the Herald Sun’s version to only use SuperCoach scores too.

Based on previous years, once again you can expect a bit more customisation in Ultimate Footy, who have used the formula used for DT scores, or a head to head system where your score is based on a range of AFL stats. For example, if your league uses kicks, handballs, marks, tackles, hitouts, goals and behinds then you’ll be scored on how many categories you beat your opponent in.

Understand your league set-up

Since there are different options that a commissioner can set up, make sure you know what’s important in your league. Sure, DT or SC points are a sum of different stats, so the scoring system is easy and has been quantified in a way fantasy players in the AFL market understands already.

If you do play in a head to head league using stat categories it adds a different and exciting element, where you need to make sure you’re balancing certain stats.

Keep an eye on things like forwards that pinch hit in ruck for some hitouts, or making sure you get in early on someone who will kick 50+ goals. If your league doesn’t count hitouts, then make sure you’re picking rucks that add in other areas like tackles or disposals. I’ll go into a lot more detail on this topic next week.

Next week

Next well I’ll talk about the composition of your squad. Position scarcity will see certain players have a higher draft value, so it’s not just about necessarily getting the guys who put up the best stats. You also need to move early on players who provide a point of difference for their position.