Footy Tragic

Owing to the fact I’ve already written about 20 rookie priced players in what is already a pretty average class I’ve decided to take a different tact for my second last rookie reveal.

For what it’s worth, I had written an article about Hawthorn’s Jarrad Boumann, who I think is a decent chance for their Round 1 side and is currently floating in and out the last spot in my defence. I didn’t end up publishing it because I couldn’t find any stats on him, though I don’t expect him to be a huge ball winner, but more someone who can hold down a role and link up when needed.

This week I’ll be writing about the rookie list, following on from the deadline for nominated rookies (only clubs with none or one on the veteran list were eligible). However, as we all know players can still be upgraded at any time when a club places a senior listed player on the long term injury, so I’ve done some digging to compile a list of all players officially on the long term injury list, as well as mentioning those that will be eligible but haven’t being moved there by their club yet (ie. Nicoski).

NOTE: When a club puts a player onto the long term injury list they need to be there for at least eight weeks and can’t play footy at any level in that time. Also, for official LTI I’ve sourced Patrick Keane’s Twitter feed (media relations at AFL). If a player is not listed here as an official LTI it’s either because their club hasn’t officially moved the player there yet, or the AFL haven’t updated that information.

ADELAIDE

Nominated rookie: Ian Callinan ($217,000 DT, $303,600 SC)
Official LTI: None that I can find.
Possible LTI: They seem pretty clear from what I can see on the medical front.
Rookie mix: Tim McIntyre impressed in one of the mini games in the first week of NAB Cup, but had minimal time on ground in Week 2 and was unsighted after that. He’s probably next cab off the rank, but not one to hold your breath over.

BRISBANE

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
LTI upgrade: Niall McKeever
Official LTI: None that I can find
Possible LTI: Brent Staker (knee – season)
Rookie mix: They’ve got a pretty promising crop on their rookie list. Niall McKeever has already been upgraded after some solid games last year at AFL level, but his price makes him irrelevant for fantasy. Jack Crisp is a tough, no frills midfielder who has had some good games in the NAB Cup. I also don’t mind Brad Harvey, who last year had to play way above his height as a 185cm full back for Brisbane reserves. He’s too short for KPD, but as a third tall I wouldn’t rule him out completely.

CARLTON

Nominated rookie: Ed Curnow ($376,700 DT, $389,400 SC), Zach Tuohy ($221,600 DT,  $259,100 SC)
Official LTI: Luke Mitchell (shoulder – 8+ weeks)
Possible LTI: Dylan Buckley (estimated about 8 weeks away)
Rookie mix: They’ve already upgraded two, but Frazer Dale looked impressive against the Bulldogs in the NAB Cup. Levi Casboult played in every week except the last, but didn’t look ready to take the AFL by storm. They don’t really have one demanding a look for AFL Dream Team or SuperCoach in the pre-season, but they’ve got the flexibility to upgrade someone now that Mitchell has been added to the LTI.

COLLINGWOOD

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: None that I can find
Possible LTI: Andrew Krakouer, Brent Macaffer (both knee – season)
Rookie mix: Marley Williams is the one to keep an eye on from an AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach perspective. He looked pretty handy during the NAB Cup playing bit parts in all except the last game, but it’s a tough side to break into. I thought Caolan Mooney was incredibly impressive for an Irishman who has only just taken up the game, but he’s probably more one to watch for the future, as this should be a development year for him.

ESSENDON

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: Scott Gumbleton (back – eligible to come off LTI in 3-4 weeks, but who really knows with him?), Brent Prismall (knee – was put on LTI about a month ago, so is eligible to come off in 3-4 weeks and isn’t too far from a return to VFL)
Possible LTI: They seem OK otherwise
Rookie mix: Mark Bagueley, Corey Dell’Olio and Brendan Lee are three mature aged rookies that should be all in and around the mark. Lee put up huge numbers for East Perth last year, averaging 28 disposals and 95.2 DT points. He had over 30 touches six times, including a 42 possession and 133 DT point game.

Dell’Olio looked sneaky and kicked a few goals in Round 1 of the NAB Cup when Essendon broke through the zone. I think the Bombers could use a little goal sneak like him, but I wouldn’t expect him to put up huge numbers – high impact player with a few goals, but low possession rate is how I see him.

Bagueley is a running defender, who is DEF/MID eligible and worth keeping an eye on, but Lee is the one with potentially huge fantasy value. Unfortunately Essendon didn’t play a single rookie priced player after the first week of the NAB Cup.

FREMANTLE

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: Viv Michie (foot – indefinite)
Possible LTI: None that I can see
Rookie mix: Michie was put on the LTI today. The two competing for the spot are Clancee Pearce (who is over $300K in AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach) and the fantasy friendly Lee Spurr. Pearce has had a very good pre-season and Ross Lyon has indicated he is the likely upgrade, which is fair enough on form. Spurr is one to watch if a spot opens up for him though. He averaged 87.8 for Central District in the SANFL last year and played every week of the NAB Cup for Freo. He looked a little lost early on, but peaked with a score of 70 in the last round.

GEELONG

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: Daniel Menzel (knee – mid to late season)
Possible LTI: Nathan Vardy (hip – late season)
Rookie mix: There was an article on the AFL site a few weeks ago about basketball convert Ryan Bathie being a chance for promotion largely because the Geelong injury list features a lot of talls. If one of Stephenson or West were to go down they might need Bathie. He’s been playing as a key defender for Geelong’s VFL team last year after being in the Melbourne Tigers NBL system prior to 2011. I was very impressed with how quickly he has picked up the game, but if he plays I’d be equally impressed if he managed to crack 30 many times. Jesse Stringer has had an injury ravaged time at Geelong, but he put up some good numbers in the NAB Cup. It looked like he lacked a bit of composure, but his VFL season could be one to track.

GOLD COAST

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: Nil
Possible LTI: None that I can find and they actually have an up to date injury list on their site!
Rookie mix: I think a lot of fantasy coaches were hoping to see Kyal Horsley in action during the NAB Cup, but he never surfaced. Either he had an interrupted pre-season or isn’t as high in the Suns thoughts as we were hoping. Former Saint Andrew McQualter and mature key defender Michael Coad getting their second chance on the Suns rookie list would be in consideration if a spot became available.

GWS

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: None that I can see
Possible LTI: Kurt Aylett (knee – mid season), Jonathan Patton (knee – possibly back a little too soon to risk putting on LTI)
Rookie mix: They’ve only got three on their rookie list – Rhys Cooyou, Sam Frost and ruckman Andrew Phillips. Cooyou looks the most likely, but he had an injury setback after impressing in the first week of the NAB Cup. If one of Giles or Brogan goes down then Phillips would be more physically ready than senior listed Tom Downie for a spot in the ruck. I’m not a Sam Frost fan.

HAWTHORN

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
LTI upgrade: Broc McCauley
Official LTI: Alex Woodward (knee – season)
Possible LTI: Max Bailey (wrist – 8-12 weeks approx.)
Rookie mix: With Max Bailey out for the start of the season Broc McCauley has been upgraded to help David Hale in the ruck. Despite barely getting near the ball in the last week of NAB Cup, Clarkson had a bit of praise for how the tandem functioned. Unfortunately due to his three AFL games for Brisbane last year McCauley is an unattractive price for AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach. Bailey isn’t likely to be put on the LTI (they would’ve done it straight away if they were going to do it because the low point of his return date is 8 weeks) so they probably don’t have another spot for anyone at the moment.

MELBOURNE

Nominated rookie: James Magner ($85,800 DT, $95,700 SC)
Official LTI: Neville Jetta (ankle – 12-16 weeks), Jake Spencer, Max Gawn (both knee – indefinite)
Possible LTI: None that I know of
Rookie mix: They’ve got no shortage of injuries, so they can upgrade however they see fit. Tom Couch is base priced in AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach. He’s a tough inside midfielder and a tackling machine. He did show he is capable of winning the ball in the pre-season, but the problem is he’s a very, very average player. I just don’t see him at AFL level. I’m not a Magner fan, but I can at least see how he can fit at AFL level – I just can’t see it at all with Couch. Daniel Nicholson is also a hot chance to get upgraded, but after playing nine games last year he’s at a price you wouldn’t bother with.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Nominated rookie: Aaron Mullett ($219,300 DT, $224,100 SC)
Official LTI: Tom Curran (no idea, but he had issues with his feet as a junior…)
Possible LTI: None that I can find
Rookie mix: Mullett won the race to be the nominated rookie after outdueling Sam Gibson, but there’s still an opportunity for the former Box Hill captain with first year player Curran on the injury list. He’ll need to impress a bit more than he did in the NAB Cup, but if he finds his groove at AFL level he could be a very good scorer. I’m hoping for a Round 6 or 7 debut because he could potentially be an excellent downgrade target.

PORT ADELAIDE

Nominated rookie: Darren Pfeiffer ($117,800 DT, $126,700 SC)
Official LTI: Cameron Hitchcock (shoulder – 8+ weeks)
Possible LTI: Matthew Lobbe (hip – probably not quite long enough to make it worth putting him on LTI)
Rookie mix: Pfeiffer isn’t a fantastic player, but he brings a bit of hardness to the table and is a chance for early games. With his MID/FWD eligibility he could be an option for your starting squad, especially with a fairly weak FWD rookie group this year.

I can’t really see anyone apart from Tom Jonas or Jarrad Irons if they decide to upgrade someone for Hitchcock, but neither are fantasy relevant. If they’re concerned about their ruck stocks with Lobbe also on the sidelines for a while and Brent Renouf barely sighted this pre-season they have a very raw pair of talls on their rookie list in Mitch Curnow and Daniel Webb. Webb would be the closer of the two, but would be a long way from having an impact at AFL level, I would think.

RICHMOND

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
LTI upgrade: Addam Maric ($303,900 DT, $315,600 SC), Brad Miller ($280,900 DT, $313,300 SC)
Official LTI:Kelvin Moore (hip – indefinite), Dean MacDonald (unknown – hasn’t been seen at training for a while)
Possible LTI: None that I know of
Rookie mix: The two that you’d expect have already been elevated and Kristian certainly rates Maric as a smokey for AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach. Richmond can’t upgrade any more rookies, but if they cop another LTI I don’t mind Ben Darrou as a defender. He reads the flight of the ball really well and is very disciplined. He’s not a huge ball winner, so I wouldn’t expect big points if he got games, but I think he would fit in pretty well if he’s improving his tank (massive weakness).

ST.KILDA

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: None that I can see
Possible LTI: James Gwilt (knee – mid season)
Rookie mix: With their lack of key defenders they might look at developing tall Jackson Ferguson, who would be very unlikely to have a fantasy impact and truthfully I don’t think he’d quite be up to it just yet. Cam Shenton is a mature aged recruit from Norwood who kicked just over 40 goals in the SANFL last year. He’s a pretty talented forward and can take a grab, but his work rate needs to improve. I have no idea how he ended up MID/FWD – I’ve only ever seen him play as a forward.

SYDNEY

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
LTI upgrade: Harry Cunningham ($85,800 DT, $94,700 SC)
Official LTI: Alex Brown (hip – mid season)
Possible LTI: None that I know of
Rookie mix: We’ve already seen Cunningham debut for the Swans against GWS as the sub. He had an impressive pre-season, but might see the vest a few more times. He’s a clever player with good goal sense and runs very smart lines, but if you’ve already got him there’s a risk you won’t get much return on investment for a base priced player.

Shane Biggs could be a bit of a surprise packet. He played local footy most of last year before getting a few games with Bendigo in the VFL late in the season. I only saw him once, but he looked hard at the contest and seemed to have a good tank. He seems like a good natural footy player that could fit in at Sydney. He’s a MID and could be worth tracking.

Dylan McNeil (remember him from 2010 when everyone traded him in because he was the only base priced MID/FWD?) played some pretty good footy for the Swans reserves last year and in his third year will need to press for a game. Campbell Heath is a young defender who has already had a LARS surgery and the Swans like him, but his body has let him down so far.

WEST COAST

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: I can’t see anything official, but they’ve obviously got a couple
Possible LTI: Mark LeCras (knee – season), Mark Nicoski (hamstring – indefinite)
Rookie mix: Once Brad Dick returns from his own knee injury he could be in line for a spot and could conceivably be a downgrade target mid season at $122,000 DT and $119,300 SC, but obviously his body is a concern, because he’s had a long list of major injuries in his career. Apart from that the Eagles either have developing talls or skinny kids who seem a bit off it. Simon Tunbridge was a highly rated junior who turned his back on GWS and admittedly I’ve never seen him play, but he comes with a good reputation as a medium sized forward. Callum Papertalk is a sneaky quick forward who has an AWESOME name.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Nominated rookie: Not eligible
Official LTI: None yet, by the looks of things
Possible LTI: Tom Williams (shoulder – mid season)
Rookie mix: Tom Campbell impressed a lot of people in his one NAB Cup appearance against North Melbourne scoring three goals and 78 DT points. He’s a base priced ruck and will put pressure on Will Minson, Jordan Roughead and Ayce Cordy to perform. Mark Austin was rookie listed after playing 15 games in five injury interrupted years and is a key defender, however he’s once again missed a fair bit of the pre-season through injury and didn’t play for Williamstown in Round 1 of the VFL.

Brandon Ellis
Club: Richmond
Position: DEF
Price: $116,700 DT, $126,600 SC

Ellis is the lockiest lock of the back rookies this year. I can’t make a stronger case for any other back rookie worth starting on the field than the strong bodied defender from the Calder Cannons. He’s already got an AFL ready body and it showed most prominently on the weekend against Geelong when he laid five tackles, with some of them being really solid. He doesn’t look like an 18 year old kid out there.

He plays with no fear and his kicking across half back will be an asset for the Tigers, who are starting to develop quality in that area of the ground (quantity is something they never lacked though). While he will be a relevant fantasy players this year in both forms of the game I feel he will be an excellent SuperCoach player.

His long kicking and contested ball are features of his game, which will bode well for SuperCoach. His kicking efficiency in the TAC Cup doesn’t read too well at only 57%, which puts him below the 2011 TAC Cup average, but I call folly on these stats. Calder played seven games at Highgate Reserve in Craigieburn. That stadium is such a rotter that I challenge anyone to find a windier venue in the country. It’s that bad that I honestly take that into consideration when looking at KE% for games at the venue. By way of comparison his KE% in the U/18 Nationals was 75.5%, which is right up there.

As a junior he was a good ball winner – not elite, but pretty good. He averaged 23 touches in the TAC Cup last year and had over 30 touches on three occasions. His U/18 National Champsionships were fairly quiet, with 4/5 scores in the 50’s, but one game against NSW where he had 29 touches and 7 marks for 104 AFL Dream Team points.

He has a very good fitness base, running a 15.4 beep test and Draft Combine. He was also in the top five for the VO2 max test, which measures an athletes ability to build a tank, basically ie. you can have an average beep test, but show a scope to improve it in the VO2 test.

His agility and repeat sprints were also amongst the best results at Combine, however he was one of the slowest over 5m. His 20m time of 3.05 put him around the bottom third, but his 5m time was in the bottom ten. I think he’s got enough footy smarts to one day become a midfielder, but the pace might find him out a bit early. He’ll be well suited to a half back role early in his career.

His NAB Cup form has been impressive and he already looks like he fits into the Richmond setup. One very positive sign is that last weekend against Geelong, the Tigers elected not to make any changes to their team after half time, meaning they only played 22 players. Ellis scored 89 AFL Dream Team points in a well rounded game, looking the most comfortable he has all pre-season.

2011: Calder Cannons (TAC Cup) 85.2 AFL Dream Team in 16 games
2011: Vic Metro (U/18 Nationals) 62.8 in 5 games

James Magner
Club: Melbourne
Position: MID
Price: $85,800 DT, $94,700 SC

This week I’m going to have to swallow a little bit of pride and write about someone that I didn’t think would end up on an AFL list. As other pundits clamour to jump on board a player they’ve seen play 90 minutes of footy and claim them as “my boy” I have to try and go the other way with James Magner.

As we’ve seen from the first couple of weeks of the NAB Cup is a hard working inside midfielder and there’s no doubt that he plays to his strengths very well. I’ve been watching him for a few years at VFL level and thought that he was an excellent player at that level – but not quite someone I saw taking the next step.

Magner is a mature aged rookie at 24 years of age, who has been playing for the Sandringham Zebras in the VFL for the past two years after crossing over from Frankston. He won Sandringham’s best & fairest last year and led the VFL in total possessions. Yes, he is a ball magnet, as auto correct on my iPhone is always quick to point out.

He’s a bloke who loves the contest, tackles fiercely and is highly competitive. The thing is, for as much as Magner finds the ball, he’s just as likely to turn it over. He only kicked at a shade of 50% last year. While obviously this matters not one bit for AFL Dream Team it does concern me that there’s only so many turnovers a coach can take.

If I knew Magner was going to have absolute job security then I will have him in a heartbeat, but I can’t help but think about former Collingwood player Jaxson Barham. We all fell in love with his 28 touch, 9 tackle AFL debut, where he scored 122 AFL Dream Team points (perhaps the warning sign was his 77 SuperCoach score in the same game).

I’m not saying that this is what will happen with Magner, because he’s his own player, but he’s not a dissimilar player to Barham. With his elite endurance, strong body (Magner is an absolute beast) and great tackling skills he makes the perfect tagger – which is a role a coach could feasibly give a player who he thinks can help the team, but not necessarily with the ball in his hands. It doesn’t pigeon hole him into being a tagger, but it does fit the profile of a typical defensive midfielder.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Magner though. There are positive examples that can be used of guys with similar kicking efficiency that are established AFL players – in fact, one of the games elite, Matthew Boyd has kicked between 52-54% for each of the last three AFL seasons (compared to Magner’s 54.7% in the VFL last year), while being one of the best fantasy scorers going around and a two time best & fairest winner on the way to claiming his clubs captaincy.

Dane Swan and Michael Barlow only have marginally higher KE% stats. These guys are rare players though, and of course there is a very real risk that Magner might not quite bring what these guys bring to the table.

In summary, for every Boyd, Swan and Barlow there’s a Barham, Matt O’Dwyer, Ben Jolley and Adam Thomson, who are ball magnets with low kicking efficiency that just can’t take the next step. Magner has me very interested after the fantastic start to his NAB Cup campaign, but his numbers really need to come with a word of warning.

There is massive upside with Magner’s scoring. Like I said earlier, I don’t doubt his ability to score, I worry that he could be an elite state league player that can’t quite take the next step and he won’t score points for your team if he’s playing at Casey. The signs are good early though.

2011: Sandringham Zebras (VFL) 109.6 DT in 18 games

Sam Kerridge
Club: Adelaide
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $98,700 DT, $106,600 SC

Obviously you’re looking for rookies that have a big chance of making their clubs Round 1 team and from a combination of the words coming out of Adelaide and my own humble opinion, Kerridge has an excellent opportunity for immediate games in front of him.

He’s a tough midfielder, who is capable of playing forward and joins a long list of neat looking blonde guys who attack the ball hard at the Crows (it’s starting to get weird how many they have). Last year he carried an insipid Bendigo Pioneers. He didn’t exactly carry them far, because they finished last and were barely competitive in any given week, but I really shudder to think of how bad they would’ve been without him. He was named in their best players in 14/16 games.

Kerridge also played three games for the Bendigo Bombers as the 23^rd man (a rule that allows TAC Cup players to play for their VFL affiliate) on three occasions. He was named in the best players twice and amazingly for an 18 year one of those was in Bendigo’s Elimination Final.

He has a strong body and is already fairly physically mature. He’s got plenty of room for growth, but for the immediate future (which is why we all know his name) I look at him as someone ready to go. I only got to see the second half of his game against Port Adelaide in Round 1 of the NAB Cup, but I thought he looked pretty good out there.

His midfield/forward eligibility for AFL Dream Team and SuperCoach is also handy, especially as many coaches will be searching for a Zorko replacement with information on him pretty scarce at the moment.

I also think Kerridge’s dual eligibility will be pretty reflective of how his AFL career will start. He will be a handy asset across half forward who will tackle and harass, as is the flavour of modern footy. He’s got good pace and endurance so he’ll be in line to also get stints up the ground to expose him to the requirements of stoppage work at AFL level.

While we haven’t seen Brenton Sanderson in action as a head coach he hasn’t left too much doubt about the sort of players he will like. When I hear Sanderson speak about the way Adelaide are going to play a tough brand of footy and thinking about the Geelong system he came from I can see Kerridge being a player he’d particularly like.

His scoring potential is reasonably hard to get a read on. He was a brilliant scorer for the Bendigo Pioneers in the TAC Cup, but he was their best player by a long way and pretty much everything had to go through him for something to happen. He struggled in his two games for Vic Country at the U/18 National Championships and in his three games for Bendigo in the VFL he played well, but only averaged 59.3.

From what my eyes tell me he’ll be a handy scorer this year, but not necessarily one to pull out Dyson Heppell first year numbers. He’s definitely one to watch this pre-season, because I think Adelaide could use him and he has the ability to be a decent 60-70 point player if he avoids the sub vest (but speculating on that would be pure guess work!)

2011: Bendigo Pioneers (TAC Cup) 101.9 DT in 16 games
2011: Bendigo Bombers (VFL) 59.3 DT in three games

I wanted to take a bit of a different tact this week and write about a couple of defenders who I’m not interested in for their scoring potential, but for their job security. I’m not enthused by the defence rookies this year, so I’m taking a bit of a safer approach with my rookie selections and I think it would be a pretty good strategy to take one or both of the guys I’m looking at today, purely because they have a very safe job in the team as lock down defenders.

Beau Wilkes
Club: St.Kilda
Position: DEF
Price: $98,700 DT, $106,600 SC

When Zac Dawson walked out on the Saints after trade week some people thought, oh well, no big loss, he’s not THAT good. Then shortly after they thought, oh wait, St.Kilda don’t have any key defenders. This opened the door for Beau Wilkes to be thrown another AFL lifeline.

When I say another AFL lifeline, I mean it. Wilkes previously spent time on West Coast’s list when they rookie listed him before the 2005 season. He spent two years there and was delisted, but then re-rookied again at the start of 2007. The poor bugger was delisted 12 months later, but West Coast rookie listed him once again – making it three times in total they picked him up in the rookie draft, all the while he probably never even cleaned out his locker.

He made his debut in 2008 playing 14 games as a defender and was elevated to the senior list after that season. He never quite made his mark though and spent more time playing for Claremont than the Eagles during 2009 and 2010 before he was subsequently delisted. His last crack at it with the Eagles was a six game block in the middle of the season when Darren Glass got injured, but he battled and never made his way back in (despite Glass missing the rest of the season).

Back in 2009 he started spending more time in the forward line at WAFL level, though he was purely used as a defender for the Eagles. Across 2009 and 2010 he managed two bags of five and two bags of three, but in 2011 he really exploded as a forward and started attracting AFL interest. In the second half of the season he kicked six and five goals on three occasions each to end on 42 for the season. He scored over a DT ton on seven occasions, but these were all on the back for 4+ goals.

He was the hero in Claremont’s Grand Final victory with five goals and was awarded the Simpson Medal for best on ground. He also ran second in Claremont’s best & fairest.

His forward exploits aren’t particularly relevant, because it looks like he’s back in the AFL to play as a negating defender. As I touched on in my first paragraph, St.Kilda really don’t have anyone else to take the big jobs and it appears to be the specific reason they took him. In this role at AFL level he generally scored modestly, which is all I’d be looking for out of him this year. I just want some security on my bench and I don’t think there’s a rookie priced defender out there with as much job security as Wilkes.

2008: West Coast (AFL) 50.4 DT, 63.1 SC in 14 games
2009: West Coast (AFL) 57.0 DT, 56.0 SC in three games
2010: West Coast (AFL) 54.0 DT, 62.5 SC in six games
2011: Claremont (WAFL) 83.1 DT in 20 games (note: this was playing as a forward, which he is unlikely to do for the Saints)

Tim Mohr
Club: GWS
Position: DEF
Price: $115,800 DT, $124,700 SC

Tim Mohr was eligible to be one of the pre-listed players that GWS could on trade to other clubs in exchange for picks or players, which they did with little fuss. Mohr and Adam Kennedy were two players they rated highly enough to say to the other 17 clubs, “keep your grubby mitts off.”

Mohr is a key defender originally from Tasmania (but don’t hold that against him), who had an excellent year for the Casey Scorpions in the VFL, winning their best & fairest. He’s got a very strong body and was the dominant defender in the league last year. With such a young and physically underdeveloped list GWS went after the mature Mohr, who gets his AFL call up at 23 years of age.

Like Wilkes, Mohr is someone you can probably expect a modest statistical output from, but should have a very safe position in his sides defence. Mohr, along with Phil Davis will be the main two prongs of the Giants busy defence.

When looking at Mohr, consider how much the ball will be down his end of the ground. Even though he’s not a huge ball winner he’ll undoubtedly get plenty of opportunities to be near it, which gives him more chance to touch the thing.

Mohr’s got really good speed for his size, but is very strong under the high ball, so he’s pretty versatile as a tall defender. He generally kicks without much fuss – he’ll either take a safe and easy option or just kick it long out of the area.

His 73% kicking efficiency from the VFL last year sounds pretty swish, but it’s more that there wasn’t a high degree of difficulty in his kicks whenever I saw him play.

There are a few elements to his game that makes me think he’ll be a SC specialist in the Nathan Grima or Harry Taylor mould. He’s a safe kick, even if he doesn’t get too many touches, he’s good in the contest and has the ability to take contested marks from opposition kicks.

2011: Casey Scorpions (VFL): 64.6 DT in 20 games

Sam Gibson
Club: North Melbourne
Position: MID
Price: $85,800 DT, $94,700 SC
Age: 25
Number: 43

I really wanted to get this article out of the way before we all get to see Gibson in action for North Melbourne this weekend in the first week of the NAB Cup. Gibson spent 2007 and 2008 on Hawthorn’s rookie list, but never got promoted and was delisted without playing a game.

He stuck with their affiliate the Box Hill Hawks, which is where he was originally rookie listed from and after years of hard work he was made his way back into the AFL system. Last year he captained Box Hill and won their best & fairest fairly comfortably.

Gibson is a midfielder who is equally adept inside and outside, with excellent endurance. He’s good in traffic and loves to get the ball onto his boot. I’m not a huge fan of his kicking. It’s not too bad, but I don’t rate it as a strength, however I love that it doesn’t stop him from trying – he averaged 17.1 kicks per game last year!

He’s an excellent leader and has a strong body, so he is definitely ready for AFL. With Daniel Wells perhaps being a little behind in his pre-season (has done all the fitness work, but no contact yet) and Jack Ziebell suspended for the first two rounds there’s an opening in the midfield to start the season. If Gibson gets that chance I can see him being too hard to dislodge.

Gibson is a very intuitive player and along with his ability to run all day, one of his greatest strengths is that he has a knack for finding the ball. He’s one of those guys that gets to the right spots around a contest and led Box Hill for handball receives last year. His massive tank allows him to find space, which is how he ended up top three in the VFL for marks in 2011, averaging just over seven per game.

He averaged 28.2 touches per game last year and oh yeah, a cool 114 DT points in 19 games. After being one of the better performers in their intra club match in Ballarat last week and having always been a ripper on the training track Gibson is really turning heads down at Arden St. He’s definitely one to keep an eye on and if he gets promoted off the rookie list he’s got as high a ceiling as any first year player this year.

Overall, as a player he’s just a good honest goer who has a knack for being in the right spots to get the ball. I’m impressed with how hard he has worked to get back into the AFL and he will leave no stone unturned to see if he can really make a fist of it. I haven’t been able to confirm this, but my understanding is that Brent Harvey is the only North player on their veterans list, which would give them room to upgrade one rookie before the start of the season.

2011: Box Hill (VFL) 114.0 DT in 19 games.

Sam Reid
Club: GWS Giants
Position: MID
Price: $124,900 DT, $113,200 SC

At this time of year a lot of the same names are getting thrown around. Yeah great, Dan, let’s hear about Zorko, Stephenson and Shiel some more. While obviously there’s still a few more obvious ones to write about in the lead up to the 2012 season I also want to throw in a few options that aren’t that high on the radar.

Sydney fans had a collective coronary when it was announced that GWS had signed Sam Reid as an uncontracted player during trade week. “What?! …There’s another Sam Reid? That’s OK then.” Yes, this Sam Reid plied his trade at the Bulldogs for four years and only played ten AFL games. He had persistent injuries (his shoulders particularly troublesome) and didn’t get much continuity in his game

Significantly, he was knocked around in the pre-season of 2010 with a diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes, which is a manageable condition for an AFL player (Dale Weightman and Nathan Bassett are two notable players to have had Type 1). I’m no doctor, but you’d imagine it would’ve been a tough adjustment for him to have made.

He had four games in 2011 at the Dogs, but didn’t play at AFL level with much confidence. He started one game as the sub and was subbed off twice. It’s not like this would’ve affected his scores greatly, to be honest – he wasn’t really finding the ball anyway, however I feel he could greatly benefit from a fresh start at a new club with so many inexperienced players around him.

His 2011 for Williamstown was excellent and he finally overcame the injuries that dogged a lot of his Bulldogs career (particularly 2010 when he required shoulder surgery after a collision in his one AFL appearance for the year). He only missed one game via injury (hamstring) and one game via suspension. In the 15 home & away games that he played for Williamstown he averaged 95.4 with a heavy emphasis in his points on the 6.5 tackles he laid per game.

Originally from Zillmere in QLD, Reid has a big strong body, which will offer good protection for the young Giants mids. He’s got a very inside game and attacks the contest strongly. His kicking is a worry, but finding the ball isn’t typically a problem for him at the lower level. The upside I see with Reid is that I feel he will have more confidence in his new environment where he is more of a leader than a fringe player.

Most of the indications coming out of the Giants camp are that their experienced players will be getting games, with the youngsters fitting in around them. When you factor in further quotes that state the likes of James McDonald are expected to play around 13-15 games it puts someone with Reid’s age profile in a good position for a lot of games – or at the very least a solid run of games early in the year.

Whether you rate him as a player or not, the fact GWS gave him a three year deal speaks loud enough to me. He is clearly rated by the Giants to have committed to him for that long and his recruitment makes a lot of sense. If his body holds up I expect him to finally feel comfortable at AFL level and in turn make good money (I meant DT/SC money…) with solid job security.

He is basically rookie priced and oddly his SC price is lower than his DT price – I’m sure I’ll be corrected if I’m wrong, but that doesn’t happen too often.

2011: Williamstown (VFL) 95.4 in 15 games
2011: Western Bulldogs (AFL) 25.3 DT and 20.5 SC in four games (three as sub)

Tory Dickson
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: FWD
Price: $98,700 DT, $106,600 SC

Here’s one who hasn’t got a lot of press in the fantasy community and I definitely think he’s one to keep an eye on over pre-season. Tory Dickson has a bit of an interesting background, having being an elite tennis player as a youngster he didn’t go through the TAC Cup system. He’s a mature aged draftee who was playing for the Bendigo Bombers last year and is a natural football player with a very good ability to read the play. He’s got terrific goal sense, as evidenced by his 48 goals for Bendigo in 2011.

The thing that makes Dickson’s 2011 season so impressive is that he was training once a week commuting from Beaconsfield to Bendigo. He also had a limited pre-season because his decision to return to the VFL was a late one. He had already been training with Noble Park after a 112 goal season with them in 2010.

Going back a little further in 2009 he won a best & fairest with Frankston in the VFL, which is where he caught the attention of Shannon Grant, who was Frankston coach back then and persuaded him to come over to Bendigo for the 2011 season. Grant recently joined the Bulldogs as an assistant coach and is known to be a fan.

From a fantasy perspective I’m immediately interested in any players that are drafted at 24 years of age. Generally speaking, those players are recruited for a reason and with the Bulldogs new look forward line there should be opportunities for him.

He averaged a solid 77.7 for Bendigo last year and scored quite evenly in a lot of stat categories. In fact, he scored 216 from handballs, 219 from marks, 220 from tackles and 288 from goals. Those are perhaps meaningless stats, but I thought it was pretty neat that he scored so similarly from most of the DT point scoring categories.

He has a high enough ceiling and had a four week patch in the middle of the season where he scored over 100 each week. His season average was also dragged down by a quiet last two games where he scored 40 and 41. After 17 games he was averaging 82.1.

I think the prospect of him scoring in that sort of ballpark at AFL level isn’t particularly crazy. 77 is a bit of a lofty prediction, but I would be pretty surprised if he was less than 70. Keep a very close eye on the Bulldogs NAB Cup because if Dickson is able to press for a spot in their Round 1 side I think he’ll be a decent option and might end up a bit more popular than you’d be thinking at this stage.

2011: Bendigo Bombers (VFL) 77.7 in 19 games

Darren Pfeiffer
Club: Port Adelaide
Position: MID/FWD
Price: $117,800 DT, $126,700 SC

Darren Pfeiffer isn’t a complete stranger to the AFL system. He was drafted by the Adelaide Crows in the first round of the 2005 National Draft. Things didn’t work out for him there, due to a combination on injuries and a lack of dedication. After two years he was delisted, but then picked up by Carlton in the PSD prior to the 2008 season.

He managed seven games for the Blues in 2008, six of them in the first nine weeks. After that season he was delisted again and re-rookied by the Blues. He never really got going in 2009 due to injury and played the end of the year with their VFL affiliate the Northern Bullants. He was delisted again and played in Queensland in 2010, where he ran second in the competitions B&F. He returned to his home club of Norwood in the SANFL for 2011, where he had a good enough year to get a chance at a third AFL club.

Pfeiffer was rookie listed by Port Adelaide this year, but it’s important to note that Dom Cassissi is their only veteran listed player, so it gives them space on the list to upgrade a rookie prior to Round 1. From what I can see, Pfeiffer would clearly be the top candidate for a pre-Round 1 upgrade with Tom Jonas the only other realistic option, in my view.

Pfeiffer has a tremendous attack on the footy and despite being named as a MID/FWD for fantasy I prefer him as a midfielder who can roll behind the ball across half back.

His kicking and decision making is probably the thing that holds him back. He’s quite sharp in congested situations when he’s handballing, but he lacks the vision to make good decisions up the ground – which is where his kicking can sometimes lack.

Since he first entered the AFL system back in 2006 up until now he has improved this area of his game so it’s not a weakness. I’d say he’s starting to know his limitations when it comes to his kicking, more than anything (similar to someone like Nick Lower). He used to have far too high of a K:H ratio, but he has learnt to handball a lot more, which is a positive for his disposal efficiency. By way of example, back in the 2005 U/18 National Championships he had 43 kicks and 7 handballs in three games for SA.

He had a great year, averaging 22.6 possessions for Norwood (however, he had an injury affected game where he got four touches – if you take that out he averaged 23.6). He was named in the best nine times out of 18 games. I was over in Adelaide one weekend and caught a Norwood game away to North Adelaide. He was dominant around the stoppages that day and picked up 28 touches, but he was a little over aggressive in his attack on the contest and gave away six free kicks (doesn’t seem like a habit, as his next highest total for FA in 2011 was two).

There’s an opening on Port’s main list for him to be upgraded and it looks as though he’s been drafted to have an immediate impact. It’s not exactly the hardest midfield in the league to break into, so Pfeiffer is one I expect to get early games and score pretty handily.

2011: Norwood (SANFL) 80.8 DT in 18 games…but if you take out a game where he scored 9 and was injured early he averaged 85.0 in 17 games.

Clay Smith
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: MID
Price: $107,700 DT, $116,600 SC

There hasn’t been a lot of love in the broader fantasy community for Clay Smith, but I reckon he’s a ripper. There was not one player in the National Draft with a more ruthless attack on the ball. He shows no fear and will do whatever it takes to get his hands on the ball.

The first round draft pick was a notable ball winner at junior level, averaging a whopping 119.4 DT points in 12 games for the Gippsland Power in 2011. His National Championships were a bit more statistically modest, averaging 76.6 for Vic Country, however he still impressed enough to be named U/18 All Australian.

The thing I like about his fantasy prospects is his ability to put numbers in a lot of columns. In the TAC Cup he averaged 26.3 touches, 6.9 marks and 6.4 tackles. The mark of a good fantasy player is his ability to rack up the scores without pulling down huge disposal numbers every time. He’s got fantastic endurance and it shows with his repeat efforts on the field.

He also added a handy 17 goals in 12 games, and while I wouldn’t necessarily call him a goal kicking midfielder it shows that he’s got solid enough finishing skills.

From a Super Coach perspective, it’s worth noting that his kicking efficiency was on the low side last year (around 60% in both the TAC Cup and U/18 Nationals), so that could harm his scoring potential a bit. For what it’s worth, I tend to not worry about that as much for SC when it comes to rookies. Furthermore, a lot of his contested ball will offset some of his skill errors.

New coach Brendan McCartney has gone on record that he wants the Bulldogs to play a hard and tough brand of footy and Smith is someone who fits that bill very well. His profile is a lot lower than a lot of the other rookies getting mentioned at this time of year for DT/SC, but his junior record is outstanding and you’d imagine he’d be in the selection mix if he plays well in the NAB Cup. Keep an eye on his pre-season.

2011: Gippsland Power (TAC Cup) 119.4 DT in 12 games
2011: Vic Country (U/18 Nationals) 76.6 DT in five games