Footy Tragic

Kristian runs through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price, as well as who looks a likely debutant in the coming weeks.

The amount of candidates for the Boys on the Bubble is getting thinner week by week as the season goes on unfortunately. This round we only have one player that will play his 3^rd game on the weekend in Wayde Twomey from the Blues.

So instead of just focussing on the one name, I’ll mix it up a little and also list a few players that we should expect to see get a game in these final six games of the season.

Wayde Twomey (Carlton, MIDFIELD)

DT: $80,400. Scores: 60, 36. Breakeven: -31

SC: $91,700. Scores: 52, 31. Breakeven: -19

Twomey, while naturally a ball-winning running half back, has been put in the Carlton side to play a forward role. He’s applied good pressure and had a decent first up game against the Pies, but he hasn’t won a whole lot of the ball, and consequently got subbed off his second game. Carlton has Carrazzo, Russell, Waite, Bower and Joseph to come back into the side either this week or next week, so Twomey will be the first on the chopping block unfortunately.

Summary: Considering he’s a midfield only option, I wouldn’t go there. You need reliable players that will get decent scores in your midfield at this time in the year, and I don’t think he’ll play many more games. Having said that, if you have trades in hand, and only need Twomey for a downgrade, and you won’t need him, well his bargain basement price is enticing.

Now we’ll look at some players that could get some games to finish off the season. These players will most likely come from teams like the Bulldogs, Richmond, Adelaide etc that will now look to build toward next season, and will have to play guys on the cusp to see if they’re capable of stepping up or not.

Ben Jakobi (Richmond, FORWARD)

During the week, captain Chris Newman mentioned Jakobi, who’s on the rookie list, as one player who could step in and play his role. He’s a running half back who’s had an interrupted year with injury, but has now played a few VFL games in a row.

Peter Faulks (Fremantle, DEFENDER)

Faulks will get his debut this week you’d think with the absence of Luke McPharlin. While his DT relevance is really not that high, he could be a reliable option as your 10^th back for the rest of the year.

Tom Hickey (Gold Coast, RUCK)

As Dan mentioned in his article, Hickey has been in brilliant form for the reserves. He kicks goals and gets plenty of hitouts, so he’ll score decently if he gets a gig. I can see him coming in and giving Smith a chop out very soon. He’s a good down grade option for a 4^th ruck if you’re stuck for cash.

John Butcher (Port Adelaide, FORWARD)

It’s only a matter of time before he gets a go in this Port Adelaide side given he’s a first round draft pick. He’s been in decent form in the SANFL, kicking 3 goals on the weekend, so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get a go as early as this week. The Power really need to find out whether he can cut it at AFL level or not.

Ayce Cordy (Western Bulldogs, RUCK)

Cordy’s been playing in defense lately, as his athleticism allows him to. Even though Lake wasn’t in the seniors, it opens a door for Cordy, and Dale Morris is now under an injury cloud as well. The only problem is he’s a ruck only, so you won’t get much value out of him. I think Hickey is the better option here.

Jason Tutt (Western Bulldogs, DEFENDER)

I reckon he’ll get a fair go now, with the Doggies rewarding him for good VFL form off a wing. He and Christian Howard are probably fighting for the same spot, but with their season over, I really can’t see any reason why they couldn’t play both of them. I think he’s a really good option if you’re looking to downgrade someone like Michael Hibberd.

Jayden Schofield (Western Bulldogs, DEFENDER)

Schofield’s a player I really like, but unfortunately for him, he’s been over taken by Dalhaus and Hooper. I want to see Schofield in the backline though, so hopefully he get’s a chance there. Also note that he IS on the bubble, having played two games already this year. His price won’t rise that much though, as he’s not a big DT scorer.

Josh Dyson (Brisbane, MIDFIELD)

Dyson’s a solid midfielder that likes to win the ball. He could be one to watch, and has made the reserves best players a few times, but we need him in immediately. He has the bye this week as well. I can see him coming in and playing 1-2 games right at the end, which is a bit of a pain.

Dan & Toby run through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price – so who looks best for your AFL Dream Team & SuperCoach?

Well it’s a pretty quick and easy Bubble Boys this week – in fact, there are only three players currently sitting ready to play their third games. Ian Callinan is still precariously sitting on the milestone, however Adelaide have already confirmed that he won’t be announced in the team tonight after pulling up sore this week at training. At least this week a couple of the names I will discuss actually have some relevance, so without any further ado, here is Boys on the Bubble…

Daniel Talia (Adelaide, DEF/FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 59, 76 Break even: -56

SC: $110,200. Scores: 92, 81 Break even: -95

Talia is one player which Adelaide fans have been crowing out to see for a while now (pardon the pun), and finally got his chance a fortnight ago against Sydney (it has only taken so long for him to debut thanks to a series of injuries). He was a first round draft pick, taken at pick 13 in the 2009 draft. You can conveniently pick him up as either a defender or a forward, although all of his footy will be played at CHB. The Crows have been playing around with their key defensive stocks this year, with Talia being the third youngster given a crack at CHB – although it hasn’t been from lack of persistence. Phil Davis is clearly their first choice for this spot, however he is out for the year, so since then it has been Luke Thompson playing the role. Unfortunately, Thompson’s form has waned in recent weeks, allowing Talia his opportunity, which he has fortunately taken with both hands.

His first game was against Sydney, where he played on fellow young-gun Sam Reid, doing a pretty good job at keeping him quiet. He manages to win his own ball too (Adelaide have always liked playing around with the ball in their defence), although this won’t be his primary role. His second game was last week against Essendon, where he often took the resting ruckman (mostly Ryder) when they went forward. Ryder was kept to just one goal and had limited influence up forward, whilst Talia won 16 possessions of his own.

In conclusion, I think Talia is actually a pretty decent option, especially in SuperCoach. Whilst his numbers will likely hover between 50 – 70 most weeks, the expectation wouldn’t be to have him on the field that often, although he is a little more than a live body if you do have a couple of players out one week. He will be a very good cash-grab in the forward line or backline, and without any massive competition for spots, should play out the year.

Summary: Will likely only be your 9^th/10^th defender or forward and will score very well for that position. Good job security too makes him a pretty decent pick.

Lachlan Keeffe (Collingwood – RUC)
DT: $92,500. Scores: 53, 33^ Break even: -11
SC: $103,600. Scores: 50, 34^ Break even: -11

Keeffe has played his first two AFL games as a foil for Travis Cloke in the Collingwood forward line. He hasn’t been going too badly in that role, however his scoring potential is limited and the major danger is the news that Chris Dawes is progressing quicker than first expected. Even the fact he was subbed off last week is of some concern. If the Pies are playing Keeffe in Dawes’ role, then if you’re considering trading him in you have to accept the high chance he’ll be out of the team when Dawes recovers from his hand injury in the next couple of weeks.

If you’re looking to downgrade in the ruck position you probably missed the boat with Matthew Lobbe, who was the last legitimate option with scoring potential and job security.

Summary: If you need cash and are using your ruck division for it, you have to accept that Keeffe isn’t likely to stay in the seniors for the rest of the season with Dawes due back soon.

Rory Thompson (Gold Coast – RUC)
DT: $97,600. Scores: 77, 48. Break even: -46
SC: $110,200. Scores: 88, 53. Break even: -63

Of the two rookie ruck options Thompson is probably the pick of the pair this week. He’s shown a bit more scoring potential in his two games so far, but the issue with all Gold Coast kids is that they rotate them at such a rapid rate. Thompson got a bit of a touch up in his first game from Sydney’s Sam Reid, but on the positive he scored quite well himself and was backed in for his second game the following week, where he played well in a rare Suns win on Tyrone Vickery.

The big man is a good tall defender and will receive a bit of competition for his spot in the team from Seb Tape and Jack Hutchins, but the news that Michael Coad reinjured his hamstring could help his chances of keeping his spot in the team.

Summary: I’d prefer Thompson over Keeffe if you’re going to downgrade in the ruck this week. Better job security and scoring potential – but the term job security and Gold Coast youngster is a pretty loose term.

Toby runs through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price – so who looks best for your AFL Dream Team & SuperCoach?

Well it’s another week where I’m sure there are plenty of coaches wanting to make a bit of a cash grab before upgrading, but once again it appears to be a week where very little worthwhile downgrade targets are presenting themselves. There are, it seems, only four options – but that said, it is worth noting that one Michael Coad appears very close to playing his third game for the Suns, since his tore his hamstring from the bone in round four. He made a faster than expected return to football, lining up for the Suns’ reserves team last weekend – whilst he may need another week or two for conditioning, he could be a very nice downgrade prospect to keep your eye on over the next fortnight.

Andrew Hooper (Western Bulldogs, DEF)

DT: $96,600. Scores: 61, 45 Break even: -27

SC: $110,200. Scores: 59, 66 Break even: -48

Hooper was an interesting Dream Team and SuperCoach option coming into 2011 – whilst he was priced the same as anyone else to have not played a game in 2010, we had in fact gotten a look at him in last year’s semi final against Sydney, where he kicked one goal and only 5 possessions. The next week against St.Kilda he was a late withdrawal and has not been seen again until a fortnight ago against the Dees.

Despite his defence-only eligibility in DT and SC, he is playing purely as a forward. He is in the team with one specific role in mind, and that is to chase and harass the opposition defenders with his high speed and good tackling technique. However, in his two games so far this year he hasn’t really been much of a ball-winner – in fact, he has had just 20 disposals across his two games. But his role in the team isn’t to rack up the stats, but rather to create goals through his high-intensity in the forward line. He has looked good doing this, but has admittedly floated in and out of his two games so far. His case for team selection will definitely be helped by the fact the Dogs are back on the winners list, with a big thanks to their fresh, energetic looking forward line.

My concern over him would be scoring capacity – he has proven he can score well (43 of his 45 DT points this week were scored in the third quarter alone, which is both pretty good and a little worrying), but as those stats also show, he can have a number of quiet quarters too – this to me almost suggests he could be an ideal sub candidate. Of all the options this week, he is certainly the best – his job security appears solid, and his scoring is also OK.

Summary: Could be a good pick for your very last defence post – will likely play, but the idea isn’t really to have him sitting on the field too often.

Luke Rounds (Collingwood, MID)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 13*, 43 Break even: 23

SC: $110,200. Scores: 11*, 57 Break even: 9

Luke Rounds would have been getting pretty frustrated as he sat on the bench as the sub, patiently waiting for his debut against Hawthorn a fortnight ago. He wasn’t actually subbed on until about half-way through the final quarter, and for a while it didn’t even look like the chance would be made. Eventually he came on, had a few touches and honestly, I hardly even saw him out there. His next game he started on the field and was given the unenviable task of running with Brent Harvey all day and actually did a pretty fair job. He didn’t actually get a ton of the ball himself (11 disposals, 2 marks, 2 tackles), but did a fair job of curbing Harvey’s influence, limiting him to just 12 disposals and 2 goals. Unfortunately though, with the likes of Ben Johnson, McCarthy and Macaffer all running around in the VFL, I don’t see Rounds staying in the team all that long. He is a good half-forward prospect for him, but I just can’t see him being given the opportunities a dream team coach would want in 2011.

Summary: No – like all Collingwood youngsters, he has come in and impressed, doing the role asked of him, but I can’t see him keeping more senior players out of the lineup for long.

Ben Griffiths (Richmond, FWD)

DT: $103,800. Scores: 13, 45 Break even: 26

SC: $131,400. Scores: 19, 63 Break even: 10

It could be argued that Griffiths isn’t really a ‘Bubble Boy,’ considering he actually played 5 games in 2010. The trick is, he actually only averaged 20 DT points (with 4 of those games under 20 points) from those games, meaning his 2011 price was never going to be all that high. He is highly rated at Richmond and they have been gagging to get him into the lineup this year, but it has clearly taken a lot longer than anticipated due to his ongoing issues with injuries.

We all know that key position forwards can take time to develop, and that is clearly the case with Griffiths – as I have already noted, he is highly rated at Tigerland, so getting games won’t be his issue, it will be scoring in them. As a junior he averaged just 7 disposals a game, so there is nothing to suggest he will suddenly turn into a big ball-winner or a Dream Team/SuperCoach stud.

Summary: His price dropped below rookie price last year and the same looks to be about to happen in 2011. If there was ever a stronger case against someone as a Dream Teamer, I’d like to hear it.

Josh Mellington (Fremantle, FWD)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 50, 25*. Breakeven: -1

SC: $103, 600. Scores: 55, 8*. Breakeven: 10

Mellington would have been due to play his third game last week had it not been for the bye. He has looked OK in his first two games and didn’t do himself any harm of getting selected for his third game after a good game in the WAFL this weekend – he collected 15 touches, 5 marks and booted 2.4, being commended for his good forward pressure.

It is hard to judge him on his second game as he was only subbed into the game in the fourth quarter, but he showed some signs in his first game, picking up 11 touches. Competition in Fremantle’s team will become pretty intense over the next few weeks as players return from injury – most notably Barlow, who is said to return this week – so as one of the last players in, and also the fact he is one of the youngest on their list, he could likely be the one facing the chop.

Summary: Shows some good promise, but may struggle to string together too many games, so that is a no for me.

Running through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price – so who looks best for your AFL Dream Team & SuperCoach?

It looks like I drew the short straw this round with 10 bubble boys to talk about! Lately the bubble boy article has been a bit of a curse with lots of these players getting dropped the day after! I’m forecasting something similar this week to be honest, with my favourite two options in Ian Callinan (Adelaide, midfield/forward) and Mitch Brown (Geelong, forward) being struck down with injury on the weekend. Callinan will be out for 2-3 weeks with a hamstring, while Brown will be out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

There are still a few good options out there however, so I’ll go through them one by one!

Joel Wilkinson (Gold Coast, DEFENDER)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 40, 52. Breakeven: -13

SC: $110,200. Scores: 48, 70. Breakeven: -40

I must admit Wilkinson’s surprised me somewhat with the way he’s come on in the last twelve months with his footy. At the start of the season I really didn’t rate his chances to get a game this year, but he’s worked hard and earned his place in the Gold Coast line up. He’s had a couple of run with roles in his first two games, and done quite well, most noticeably against Justin Sherman, which sparked some controversy.

Summary: I still don’t rate his job security, especially with Gold Coast’s revolving door policy. He will score solidly, but hopefully a couple of better options will pop up in the coming weeks.

Niall McKeever (Brisbane, DEFENDER)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 31, 35. Breakeven: 8

SC: $103,600. Scores: 35, 37. Breakeven: 1

It’s probably best to be short and sweet here. McKeever should never, ever be seen in any Dream Team or Super Coach squad. While he’s done a pretty good job in his two games, he just won’t score in fantasy land. Once Merrett comes back, he’s out of there unfortunately.

Summary: No thanks.

Tom Gillies (Geelong, DEFENDER)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 52, 4. Breakeven: 23

SC: $110,200. Scores: 56, 9. Breakeven: 13

To a slightly lesser extent, he’s a bit similar to McKeever. Gillies will score a little better but his position in the Geelong team is very vulnerable. At this time of the year you want bench players that you can rely on week in, week out and he just isn’t that. His score of 4 DT last week is because he came on as the sub in the third quarter. Mind you, he was a late inclusion in that game, further illustrating my point.

Summary: No, unless you are really desperate for a downgrade!

Alex Fasolo (Collingwood, MIDFIELD)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 51, 43. Breakeven: -20

SC: $103,600. Scores: 69, 40. Breakeven: -36

Fasolo’s shown a fair bit of the class that we’ve come to know of him as a junior in his first two games for the Pies. He’s played predominantly as a small forward, kicking a goal in each game. You’d think as long as the likes of Brad Dick and Alan Didak are out of the side, his spot is fairly safe as Malthouse does like to invest a lot of faith in his youth. Didak should be back in two weeks, so Fasolo will probably be battling out for a spot with Luke Rounds after that. Let’s hope he can have a similar impact to Jaryd Blair last year!

Summary: Considering he’s a midfield only position and the fact his job security isn’t at all guaranteed, it does make for a risky selection. He should score solidly as long as he isn’t used as a sub. It’s a risky pick that could reward you.

Hayden Jolly (Gold Coast, MIDFIELD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 45, 67. Breakeven: -33

SC: $110,200. Scores: 50, 54. Breakeven: -26

I’m a big wrap for Jolly in the fact he’s an absolute ball magnet. He displayed that last week with a 20 possession game through the midfield. I think he’s the perfect example of a player you should be looking for to complete your team’s bench for the run home. He can score big, and with multiple 30+ possession games against mature bodies in the VFL last year, he does have exposed form that suggests he could be capable of that in the AFL, and we saw a glimpse of that last week.

Summary: The only thing that may work against him is the fact that the Gold Coast seem to make twenty changes to their side every week. It’s his spot to lose though, so back him in and he’ll be superb cover for the rest of the year.

Matthew Lobbe (Port Adelaide, RUCK)

DT: $126,000. Scores: 95, 94. Breakeven: -88

SC: $196,300. Scores: 78, 118. Breakeven: -58

Lobbe’s really come out of no where and put in two brilliant performances as the sole ruckman for Port Adelaide without Dean Brogan. Coming up against two very good ruckman in Todd Goldstein and Matthew Leuenberger, he more than held his own in the hitouts departments and around the ground. His spot now is really under no threat at all you’d think, even if Brogan does come back. His dual position eligibility just makes him all that more enticing.

Summary: If you’re yet to offload Sandilands, or you need to downgrade Zac Smith for cash purposes, well then look no further. Port has unearthed one – DPP is the icing on the cake.

Brad Moran (Adelaide, RUCK)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 22, 25. Breakeven: 32

SC: $110, 200. Scores: 30, 41. Breakeven: 7

In total contrast to Lobbe, Moran could not have looked much worse in his two games for the Crows; certainly nothing to get fantasy coaches of both forms excited about. If he keeps offering nothing he obviously won’t be in the team much longer, and that’s really not what you want from your bench.

Summary: No, just no.

Tom Lynch (St.Kilda, FORWARD)

DT: $103,800. Scores: 45, 66. Breakeven: -28

SC: $111,900. Scores: 32, 80. Breakeven: -33

He’s a much maligned player at only the age of 21, and it seems he might’ve found his ideal role at the Saints on the weekend. He’s never going to be that centre-half forward that some touted him as back when he was drafted, but what he is, is a very crafty half forward who likes to push up the ground and become a target; a very good role for Dream Team. He did that on the weekend, as well as jagging a couple of goals himself. He also hit Nick Riewoldt a couple of times lace out on the lead, so he won’t be getting dropped anytime soon if he keeps delivering like that to the skipper!

Summary: I see (and hope) him becoming an integral part to the Saints for the run home. He will score well if given the chance, so jump on!

Steven Motlop (Geelong, FORWARD)

DT: $103,800. Scores: 59, 54. Breakeven: -30

SC: $111,900. Scores: 60, 47. Breakeven: -28

Motlop’s season kicked off when was a late inclusion for James Kelly a couple of weeks ago, and he’s done pretty well in the two games he’s gotten an opportunity in, kicking a goal in each and providing some great forward pressure. I don’t see a long term spot in the team for him however, consistently anyway, as there is a pretty big log jam for spots in the Cats team.

Summary: Tom Lynch is a much better option, scoring wise and job security wise. Motlop also comes with his fair share of injury risks.

Josh Mellington (Fremantle, FORWARD)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 50, 25. Breakeven: -1

SC: $103, 600. Scores: 55, 8. Breakeven: 10

Mellington’s done quite well in his first two games, especially for a first year player, but unfortunately I see his spot in jeopardy with quite a few players to return for the Dockers in coming weeks. He’s not really one to rely on at the business end of the season.

Summary: Much better options in Lynch and even Motlop available. Pass.

Dan runs through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price – so who looks best for your AFL Dream Team & SuperCoach?

I suppose when reading this article you need to keep in mind that Ian Callinan will be set for his first price rise in Round 17 (Crows have a Round 16 bye which will delay the date of his third game). If you only require one forward or mid downgrade for the rest of the year then you’d be wise to trade him in over the next couple of weeks. For those that already have him, or might require a couple of forward downgrades, read on…(read on regardless, actually).

Patrick Karnezis (Brisbane, FWD)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 45*, 54^ Break even: -25

SC: $103,600. Scores: 47*, 52^ Break even: -27

Karnezis has really impressed me in his first two games. He started as the sub against Richmond in his first game and kicked two goals with his first two kicks when he was activated in the third quarter. Last week against Freo I thought he was providing an excellent second option to Jonathan Brown and was working really hard to get involved. I was a bit surprised to see him get subbed off, because structurally he looked important. My suspicion is that the high intensity of AFL might mean they’re limiting his game time early on.

Voss kind of scares me as far as keeping the kids in the team. His youth policy has been rather erratic in his few years at the helm. I rate Karnezis and think he will have done enough to convince Voss that he needs to be playing AFL. His two scores are very impressive considering he started as the sub once and was subbed off the other time.

Summary: It’s hard to get a read on which kids Voss will give an extended run to, so my concern over job security has more to do with Voss than Karnezis himself. He’ll score good enough to be a 8^th-10^th forward in the run home if he plays the season out.

Lewis Johnston (Sydney, FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 29, 35

SC: $110,200. Scores: 26, 44

The late replacement for Ted Richards last week played his two games a month apart. He’s a pretty talented player, who I think is best suited as a third tall forward, but Sydney have been trying him as a half back in their reserves team a fair bit.

At this stage he looks to be a spare tall that they can play at either end of the ground. Despite some good form this year in the reserves he’s looking like only a back up tall for them.

Summary: This week if you’re looking for a forward rookie, Karnezis comes slightly cheaper with better scoring potential and I’d say better job security too. I’d recommend Karnezis over Johnston this week.

Jayden Schofield (Western Bulldogs, BAC)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 29, 45. Break even: 0

SC: $103,600. Scores: 31, 46. Break even: -5

Schofield is an angry ant, who loves getting under the skin of his opposition. His attitude was typified by the first time he ran onto the ground in an AFL game. Coming from the bench after a Crows goal he went out of his way to run past a Crow lining up at half forward and bumped him, kept running past and ran straight to Kurt Tippett and bumped him too. He’s got a bit of that Hayden Ballantyne mongrel about him, but he’s played most of his footy as a small defender.

He’s probably going to have more impact as a player than a fantasy player, in that he’ll do the little things that don’t find their way into the stats column. On top of that the Bulldogs have debuted eight players this year and apart from Liberatore and Markovic none have got the extended run of games we need as fantasy coaches.

Summary: Hasn’t shown he’s got huge scoring potential (I reckon he’d score more points as a small forward incidentally) and the Bulldogs have had a few kids in and out of the team this year.

Toby runs through all the kids about to play their 3rd game and rise in price – so who looks best for your AFL Dream Team & SuperCoach?

Luke Dahlhaus (Western Bulldogs, FWD)

DT: $88,400. Scores: 34*, 76. Break even: -39

SC: $99,700. Scores: 33*, 69. Break even: -32

Dahlhaus has been noticeable in his two games so far this year and it hasn’t purely been thanks to his dreadlocks. The Doggies played him as a sub in his first game, yet he still came on for a little over a quarter and impressed, picking up 9 disposals and not looking overawed. He has great pace, something which the Doggies are craving, and has already shown he has no issues with sticking his head over the ball. He does sometime look a bit frantic in the way he plays the game, with flailing arms and hair, but from what we’ve seen so far, he makes the right decisions most of the time and adds an exciting element to the side’s midfield and half-forward line. So for there reasons I think he will stay – he is on the senior list for the rest of the year, so the opportunity is there for him to stay in the squad, although I get the feeling he could wear the sub-vest a bit. His rookie price is also an added incentive for those looking to make extra cash from bringing him in.

Summary: Easily the best option this week – hasn’t got any issues winning the ball and his spot in the side should be safe if his form continues.

Ed Barlow (Western Bulldogs, MID)

DT: $152,800. Scores: 53, 91. Break even: -22

SC: $170,300. Scores: 42, 91. Break even: -14

Barlow’s a really interesting one. As a dream teamer, he always teased us with form – he would play the odd blinder (being followed by the club proclaiming he was ‘the next Adam Goodes’) and then following it with a bunch of stinkers. I’d say there are few Dream Teamers or SuperCoaches who have not had him in their team at some point over the journey. Anyway, his two games so far for the Doggies have actually been quite good – better than expected. His first game was against the Saints and he was serviceable, without being a star. But his second game had a lot more to like. Playing Adelaide on the weekend, Barlow sat mainly around CHF (a great fantasy position) and kicked 1.3 from 17 possessions and 7 marks. More games like this would certainly make him a good prospect, but the issue is just that – can he keep the form up? Judging from photos posted by the Herald Sun today, both he and Barry Hall are flying north for this week’s game – so the question is, with Hall back, where does he play? He could still float around half-forward, but also has the ability to play back or on the wing if needed. But at the end of the day, he is a hugely speculative pick – his form over his first two games make him attractive, but the selection policy at the Dogs is a revolving door at the moment. Also, he is at an awkward price point and midfield only, making him an even trickier proposition.

Summary: I wouldn’t think you were silly for picking him, but at his awkward price and his poor history of fluctuating form, he would have to be a speculative pick at best.

Rex Liddy (Gold Coast, FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 16*, 27*. Break even: 35

SC: $110,200. Scores: 12*, 12*. Break even: 53

Liddy’s first couple of games have been rather underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, so I won’t waste your time or mine. He has been the sub in both his outings so far, coming on both times when the game was far from reach. He is a small forward, but hasn’t shown any great ball-winning skills. Has talent and there is a bit to like from what we’ve seen, but I’d say his chances and scoring potential will be very limited.

Summary: Don’t bother – will go backwards in price this week (if he plays), which I can’t imagine being what you are after.

Mitch Golby (Brisbane, DEF)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 70, 39. Break even: -35

SC: $103,600. Scores: 52, 38. Break even: -17

I actually quite liked Golby’s first game, playing as a small defender. His courage couldn’t be questioned with a good tackle count and also his 17 possessions on debut was great to see. He looks like a real ‘Voss’ player – hard at the contest and will get the best out of himself. His second game though was a little underwhelming – he didn’t appear to move as high up the ground as he did in his first game and only managed 9 possessions. At the end of the day, the kid actually looks pretty good, but I get the feeling he will be victim to Vossy’s kid-rotation policy which seems to see the kids getting dropped, despite showing some form at AFL level.

Summary: Has shown form, but not enough to guarantee his spot. Voss likes to give the kids a few games here and there, so you can’t trust his job security.

Jordan Lisle (Hawthorn, DEF)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 47*, 52. Break even: -21

SC: $110,200. Scores: 35*, 58. Break even: -16

Lisle has been pretty impressive in his first two games and has been used as a bit of a ‘Mr.Fix-it’ type player in both the games. He has also been a late inclusion to both games he has played in – coming in for Franklin in game one (and playing forward) and coming in for Shoenmakers in game two (and playing in defence). Frankly, it’s not a ringing endorsement for the guy’s job security that he has only managed his two games through late inclusions – don’t get me wrong, he is an impressive youngster, but I feel that the Hawthorn selection panel doesn’t quite see 2011 being his year. He has done pretty well with both his opportunities, and will likely play again this week in the absence of Buddy, but don’t go trusting his job security from the following week onwards. Hawthorn already have an over-abundance of talls in their current lineup, so I can’t see him grabbing his spot unless someone succumbs to injury, or he kicks a bag this weekend, which is probably quite unlikely.

Summary: It’s a no unfortunately – has shown some form, but his job security is poor and at this time of year, that sort of this is vital.

Hey all, for the show this week we are putting in an ‘email of the week’ type segment. So for it, it would be great if you could email in any awesome DT/SC theories you have or any cool stats you might have seen that are relevant. We aren’t looking for questions about your team or anything, but rather some cool stats or theories to read out on air. The best one or two emails will be read out. Please email them to: contact@footytragic.com or go tohttp://www.footytragic.com/contact.php . Thanks!

Boys on the Bubble: Round 13

So we’re officially half way through the season, and now we start to see teams that aren’t in the race for finals, begin to blood their young guys to see if they’re worth persisting with over the next pre-season.

While there are a few good guys on the bubble this week, scoring capacity wise, they all do have one thing in common, and that’s a lack of solid job security.

Some people have varying opinions and strategies at this time of the year, and I’m a firm believer of having a squad of 33 players, that if fit, will be playing week in, week out.

Some people look at a players pure scoring ability, and get blinded by the fact they may not actually be anywhere near their teams best 22, but more so just filling gaps due to injuries which inevitably happen.

Cases like this round, in which we already know David Mundy, Zac Smith, Joel Selwood, Alan Didak, Heath Shaw, Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and perhaps Leigh Montagna and Brent Stanton all won’t play, is the perfect example of why you should pick your rookies at this time of the year carefully.

Will the likes of Jeremy Howe, Tom Simpkin, and Thomas Ledger be playing in the multi-bye rounds in 16 and 19 when disaster inevitably strikes again? I say doubtful, but we never know with footy!

Tom Simpkin (St Kilda, BACK)

DT: $92,500

Scores: 40, 60

Break Even: -25

SC: $103,600

Scores: 61, 61

Break Even: -49

I’ve been quite impressed with Simpkin’s start to his AFL career. He’s one of those guys that will never be a superstar, but he’ll play his role, and play it well for your side, following very much in the footsteps of his counterpart in Jason Blake. In both games so far, he’s scored very well for the amount of game time he’s played, given he’s been subbed off in both games. I actually thought by subbing Simpkin off in his first game, that it really shuffled St.Kilda’s structure around and turned the game in Collingwood’s favour, but I guess Ross Lyon would have his reasons. The fact that he’s been getting subbed off towards the latter stages of games gives me the impression he’s not really a stable figure in that defence yet.

Summary: His job security troubles me. I don’t think I could rely on him playing every week, but with the stability of backline rookies this year, it possibly means you could take a gamble with someone like Simpkin if you need the cash desperately.

Zach Tuohy (Carlton, BACK)

DT: $92, 500

Scores: 12*, 73

Break Even: – 10

SC: $103,600

Scores: 9*, 79

Break Even: – 15

Tuohy really impressed me on the weekend against Brisbane; in fact, he was superb. He doesn’t look out of place at all on the big stage, after coming over from Ireland, and he really put a solid case forward to the selectors that he can be a crucial part of the Carlton backline going forward with his run and ball use. He kicked a lovely long goal in the last quarter to further showcase his talent, but his creativity running out of the backline proved to be a great asset.

Summary: Out of all the options this week, I think Tuohy is the pick of the bunch. I actually think his place in the team now is rather safe and he will be a solid scoring option if you need him on the park.

Thomas Ledger (St Kilda, MID)

DT: $92,500

Scores: 35*, 31*

Break Even: 9

SC: $103,600

Scores: 26*, 14*

Break Even: 33

Ledger COULD be a very good scoring rookie, but unfortunately Ross Lyon sees him as the perfect sub candidate at the moment, and possibly finding himself out of the side sooner rather that later. He’s a very good ball winner, as he’s shown that in his two very brief appearances. He’s averaged 33 DT points over his two games, basically playing just over a quarter in each, so from that we know what he’s capable of. Hopefully his stint as the starting sub is over, which then makes him a legitimate option, but we won’t know for sure, so it will be a brave call to take the punt on him.

Summary: If he gets picked this week, and you need the cash, consider him. I doubt he’ll be the sub three weeks in a row, but Ross Lyon has done stranger things. If you can, hold off, as there should be a few better options floating around in a few weeks.

Jeremy Howe (Melbourne, FWD)

DT: $92,500

Scores: 86, 75

Break Even: – 86

SC: $103,600

Scores: 97, 50

Break Even: – 74

Howe looks like he’s added a few extra strings to his bow since coming up from Tassie in the state league last year. I really saw him as just a mark-kick-goal player that took the odd screamer, but now he’s added a few dimensions that could make him a serious fantasy player in years to come. He’s played as a lead up forward for Melbourne so far, something I’m sure he isn’t quite used to, but he’s doing it well nevertheless. Currently he’s leading the war between he, Matthew Bate and Ricky Petterd (surprisingly), but Petterd was best on ground on the weekend in a dominant display for Casey, so that’s something to be concerned about.

Summary: I think he’s the perfect downgrade for Darling right now, if you’re looking at going that way and don’t necessarily need him to play every week. I think his job security is an issue, but his scoring definitely isn’t. What do you go with?

OTHER BOYS ON THE BUBBLE………

James Mulligan suffered a hamstring injury on Friday night so he’ll be struggling to come back anytime soon. Probably not someone you’d look at trading in anyway, considering he’s pretty much an irrelevant part of fantasy footy unfortunately.

Alex Browne from the Bombers WILL be a great Dream Team player in years to come, but for now, opportunity will get in his way. Hird has promised he’ll swing the axe, so it’s not looking good for Alex to play his 3^rd game.

I traded Max Gawn in last week to be my fourth ruck for the rest of the season, just because he’s probably the likeliest of the ruck rookies to get games. The big Russian Jamar is due to come back in to the side as early as this week, so you’d think Gawn will be a straight swap for him.

Isaac Smith is still on the bubble guys! He’s apparently going to play this week, so if you need him and his dual position capabilities, jump on now before it’s too late!

While the options aren’t plentiful this week, there are still a few guys set to play their third game this weekend that I wouldn’t call you crazy for trading in. You could make a case for all options this week. As a bit of a general observation for 2011, I don’t consider job security as important as I did in previous years. By now we’d all have a fair idea as to how our team and more importantly for this article, our bench will look by year’s end.

For example, I’m looking at keeping two of Lower, Puopolo and Stanley in my back line as bench players. I feel I can be a bit more adventurous with my third bench player, so I can’t have as much hesitation downgrading Luke Thompson to someone like Christian Howard or Dan Nicholson. I reckon both of them are a chance to play a bit of footy in the back end of this year, whether that be a big block of games, or even if it’s just here and there I’m not as fussed this year because of the job security I’ll have already developed on the bench ahead of them. That’s just something to think about before I get into talking about the players about to have their first price rise.

Josh Cowan (Geelong, MID)
DT: $97,600. Scores: 53*, 46. Break even: -20
SC: $110,200. Scores: 37*, 41. Break even: 0

The shaggy haired runner from Daylesford has had a solid start to his AFL career. His VFL form across half back and up on the wings had been good enough to earn a senior call up on the top of the ladder team. Ball use is not his strong suit, so turnovers can cost him a few points in Super Coach and I imagine he’d be the sort of player who scores higher in DT than SC, which isn’t too common.

I feel that Geelong have too many players to come back and that at this stage he’s a depth player capable of filling in, but not quite in their best team. He’s getting games for experience and will be better for it, but overall he’s not a high enough scoring player to take that risk on. There’s always a few good midfield options that pop up in the back half of the season, so unless you really need to downgrade in your midfield this week, I’d wait for another option to come along.

Summary: Not the worst pick, but there will probably be better midfield downgrade options in future weeks. I wouldn’t touch him in SC, but would give him a bit more consideration for DT (and ultimately pass).

Dan Nicholson (Melbourne, BAC/MID)
DT: $104,400. Scores: 41*, 57*. Break even: -13
SC: $115,700. Scores: 24*, 46*. Break even: 12

Considering some fantasy coaches trade in dual position players purely because they can be swapped across two positions, the fact that Nicholson is playing makes him a decent option from that perspective alone. Some people (myself included) have Lobbe and J.Tippett as DP links purely to move Petrie around. Recently on our site people have been talking about bringing in Warrick Andreoli (FWD/MID), who is barely holding down a spot in Sandringham seniors. Nicholson provides an extra pivot to swap the likes of Gibbs, Goddard, Scotland, Deledio, Heppell, Hibberd or Jacobs around (hmmm…an all DP backline was almost achievable this year, wasn’t it?).

Now to move away from the handiness of his position eligibility and to talk about Nicholson as a player. He’s started both games for Melbourne as the sub, coming on in the third quarter on debut against Carlton and early in the second against Essendon to replace the injured Col Sylvia. He’s a good tackler and was finding the ball well at VFL level this year. He’s task orientated and might be the sort of player to get tagging jobs for them, but still score well enough for a rookie. I think Bartram is an immediate threat to his spot in the team, but also reckon even if he does get dropped he’ll get some more opportunities this year.

Summary: Even in one position he’d be an option you’d consider, but the fact he has BAC/MID eligibility could be a little cherry on top.

Andrew Browne (Richmond, RUC)
DT: $122,500. Scores: 78, 55. Break even: -34
SC: $160,600. Scores: 58, 62. Break even: -7

Big Andrew Browne played four games near the end of 2010 and also one game in 2009, but he’s still close enough to rookie price to consider and is about to have his first price rise on 2011. I suppose the big question with Browne is whether or not he can keep Angus Graham out of the side. Personally I don’t think the Tigers will play Graham and Browne in the same side.

Browne is a traditional tap ruckman. Three kicks and 21 handballs in his two games this season is pretty well testament to that. He does love to tackle though and is good for 20 or so hitouts. This week there’s been a bit of talk about trading Sandilands down to free up some cash. I think that was a decision to be made as soon as Sandilands was named out, because each week he misses (two now) he’s a week closer to returning.

Summary: He’s a decent option, but will get some competition for his spot from Angus Graham. If you’re set on trading Sandilands then maybe…but Vardy and Bailey are only slightly more expensive than him in DT and they’re both cheaper than him in SC. There’s also Max Gawn on the horizon, but Jamar’s return might see him a short term proposition for your team.

Christian Howard (Western Bulldogs, BAC)
DT: $97,600. Scores: 49, 59. Break even: -29
SC: $110,200. Scores: 45, 43. Break even: -10

The Bulldogs first round pick from the 2009 draft broke into the team after an injury interrupted first year and hasn’t looked out of place. He’s a great kick of the ball and the Bulldogs have been playing a few kids lately, so there’s a spot for him if he continues to improve.

Down at Geelong last week I noticed he was working hard to get lateral, which is handy for fantasy purposes. The Bulldogs may look to utilise his kicking skills across half back. Hopefully they give him a bit of time in the seniors, because there’s not a great deal of rookie backs on the horizon. One thing to consider is that Zach Tuohy and Alex Browne both debuted as subs last week and if they hold their spot will be on the bubble next week, so the last options that I rate as downgrade options in defence are Howard, Nicholson, Tuohy and Browne.

Summary: I’d be more leaning towards him over Nicholson if you don’t need Nicholson’s DP link. Bulldogs are playing a few kids and he’s got talent. Once he gets up to speed with the tempo his kicking skills could make him a handy SC option.

A run through of all the bottom-priced players set to jump in value this week.

Luke Delaney – North Melbourne (DEF)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 40, 34 = 37 avg.

Delaney has been in the system a few years and finally got his first shot at senior action a fortnight ago against the Lions. He was set a tough task, lining up on Jonathan Brown for the entire game and actually competed very well, earning plenty of praise from his coach. With North’s key-defender stocks whittling away with injury, you would think Delaney would be given plenty of chances – it does help that he is playing alright to. As a key defender though, he is not really what we are looking for in Dream Team, unless if you just need a live body to stick on your bench.

Summary: Should get a number of games this year, but provides little more than a live-body from a Dream Team perspective.

Michael Evans – Melbourne (MID)

DT: $80,400. Scores: 112, 58 = 85 avg.

Evans is a speedy medium-sized midfielder and looks pretty capable at AFL level, considering he has come from playing WAFL footy last year with the Colts. In his first game, against the Saints, he won 27 touches, 9 marks and 6 tackles, which is pretty damn decent for a debut game! The slight on him though is his ball-use skills – whilst he had no issues in winning the ball, he turned the ball over on a number of occasions and had some pretty poor kicks inside-50. With Melbourne’s injury list in the state it is (terrible), he will continue to get games, but I worry that due to his disposal skills he may either get dropped or put in a much lower possession winning role.

Summary: I worry he may be the 2011 version of Barham, Muston or Gysberts, rather than the Barlow or Curnow type.

Josh Green – Brisbane (MID)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 41, 51 = 46 avg.

Green has played the past two games and Brisbane has won both of them – coincidence? I think not. Honestly, I didn’t think much of him in his first game, but this week against Adelaide he looked pretty good before fading later in the game. He has plenty pace, intensity and red hair – exactly how Vossy seems to like his footballers. Green was one player we looked pretty hard at in the pre-season considering his junior numbers – he averaged 25 disposals and 5 tackles per game in the Under 18 championships and then 27 touches and 8 tackles in the TAC cup, suggesting that he will be a super DTer one day. So far he has shown good signs, but his two scores so far suggest he is a little way off from replicating his junior form. Vossy is also a bit funny with his younger players – he is one of the harder coaches to get a read on with kids and whether they are safe in the team or not. Personally I reckon Green will get a bit of a go – the likes of Bewick and O’Brien are probably the next ones out of the team.

Summary: Don’t expect to see his junior numbers, but he should continue to improve if given his chances. Still a bit of a punt, but could be one that pays off quite nicely.

Tendai Mzungu – Fremantle (MID/FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 21*, 85 = 53 avg.

If you play Dream Team and haven’t been counting down the days until you were able to trade this kid in, then there is something wrong with you. Mzungu shone in the pre-season, looking like a legitimate lock-and-forget mid or forward prospect for every single team – his ball-winning skills were great, but he also knew how to use it and fitted into Freo’s structures very well. Unfortunately, he injured himself in the pre-season and only managed to play his first senior game in round 9 as a sub. Last week against the Saints we got to have our first good look at him and he was great – he was their main option coming off half-back and he looked composed with the ball in hands and had no issues winning the ball, nor running out the game. Looks a great option for all teams, whether it be as bench cover or even as a 7^th forward.

Summary: Yes – get on! Now! One of the few ‘must-have’ DT players this year.

Nicholas Winmar – St.Kilda (MID/FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 33, 33* = 33 avg.

Winmar was probably a bit of a surprise inclusion to the Saints squad initially as his VFL form hadn’t been great. That said, great to see the Saints blooding some new talent. Winmar was the Saints’ first pick in the 2009 draft (after they traded their first pick for Lovett…. Grrr) and is a pacy half-back/winger who can use the ball well. His strength was never ball-winning though, so if anything, he will be more a SC pick than a DT one. That said, I’m not expecting him to play against Collingwood and will likely be in and out of the side this year, depending on the team’s form. He has looked a little lost at senior level, with where to run etc. He will improve, but I don’t think this is his year.

Summary: Has talent, but he won’t keep his spot or win enough ball to really be considered.

Nathan Vardy – Geelong (RUCK)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 29, 70 = 49 avg.

After being run through by Karmichael Hunt after the first bounce last week, it looked like Vardy would be subbed off on zero DT points for a season average of 14. To the kid’s credit, he came back on towards the end of the quarter and had a really good game. He was up against Zac Smith, who has actually been one of the better ruckmen this year and competed really well around the ground. The question now is whether his spot is safe – with Mooney, Hawkins and Ottens all in the team or coming in, will Vardy keep his spot? Honestly, he gives much more than Mooney and at the moment is in better form than Hawkins. That said, he will likely be in and out all year – also, is anyone even needing to trade in a ruck? With injuries to Mumford and Sandilands, I can’t imagine anyone wants to cash in Smith right now!

Summary: Looks a good type, but you’d only trade him in for the sake of it – I can’t see his worth to any teams.

Max Bailey – Hawthorn (RUCK)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 45, 57 = 51 avg.

Bailey is one of the good-luck AFL stories of the year after he has (so far) come back successfully from his third ACL reconstruction. He has played the past two games which Renouf is out with a hamstring injury, but with Renouf back within the next week or two and Hale not far behind, the Hawks will have to make some tough decisions, especially with Roughead also playing very well in the ruck. I’d say Renouf and Bailey will both be in and out for much of the year – the Hawks will be impressed that Bailey has already shown some good signs of improvement after just 2 games this year (he has only played 6 games prior to this season), so they may want to stick with him. That said, like Vardy, I can’t see any reason why you would be trading him in.

Summary: Great to see him back, but question why you would look to trade him in – average scoring potential and average job security.

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Hey all! We’re back to look at the bubble boys for this week! There’s quite a few so I’ll get stuck straight into it.

Thomas Lynch – Gold Coast (FWD)

DT: $120,500. Scores: 95, 92 = 93.5 avg.

SC: $138,600. Scores: 95, 82 = 88.5 avg.

Lynch has been exceptional in his first two games of AFL, exceeding my expectations of him entering his first full season. He’s been playing the centre-half forward position to a tee so far, taking a heap of marks and running back to kick a couple of goals a game as well. McKenna’s used him well so far in the fact that he’s eased him through the season. He’ll probably be less prone to burning out now and could very well play out the season.

Summary: If you’re desperate to get a rookie forward in this week, and you don’t want to pick Tendai Mzungu for one reason or another, then Lynch is most definitely your best option. He has a guaranteed place in the Suns best 22 already.

Ben Jacobs – Port Adelaide (BAC-MID)

DT: $100,500. Scores: 53, 91 = 72 avg.

SC: $113, 600. Scores: 38, 75 = 56.5 avg.

Jacobs had a VERY shaky start in his debut game to say the least! I’ve watched both the games he’s played and he seemed to settle in and play the way I expected him to in the second half of his game against Fremantle. Before that, he was constantly turning the ball over, something very unusual for Jacobs as he’s a better than average kick and generally a good decision maker. The one positive about his two games is the fact he’s not afraid to go out and win his own ball, and win lots of it too. He’ll get better as the year goes on, mainly playing along the half-back flank and his job security shouldn’t be an issue at all, unless he gets back to his debut game form.

Summary: For me, he’s a must buy. I got him into my team before he even played an AFL game. He’ll prove ultra-handy on the run home with his dual position link. If you don’t take him, the only reason would be that you don’t rate him and that you’re banking on him to get dropped.

Steven May – Gold Coast (FWD)

DT: $97,600. Scores: 49, 54 = 51.5 avg.

SC: $110,200. Scores: 58, 60 = 59 avg.

I really like May as Gold Coast’s third or fourth tall coming out of defence. He has a nice penetrating long kick and is physically ready to go one on one with some bigger opponents. His Dream Team game will get better with age, but I think he’s more of a Super Coach specialist. I rate his job security in the Gold Coast side as well as he’s just a solid player that will do the job for you week in, week out.

Summary: May will not be your worst option in both forms of fantasy footy. I’m strongly considering him for my Super Coach this week.

Sam Day – Gold Coast (FWD)

DT: $152,500. Scores: 26, 44 = 35 avg.

SC: $178,600. Scores: 43, 41 = 42 avg.

Day’s shown glimpses of his brilliant potential but I still get the feeling he’s not quite ready for AFL yet, unlike his teammate Thomas Lynch. He’s been playing most centre-half forward/full-forward, working well in tandem with Lynch. Day likes to stay at home a bit more though, which will affect his fantasy scoring now and in the future. I’m uncertain about his job security once Josh Fraser is back into the team so that will be one thing to consider before you even think about bringing him in.

Summary: For his lofty price, Day won’t be worth it. As Dan said last week in regards to Nathan Gordon, it is a polite no from me.

Luke Breust – Hawthorn (FWD)

DT: $92,500. Scores: 70, 30 = 50 avg.

SC: $103,600. Scores: 63, 47 = 55 avg.

After a years of floundering in the VFL Breust finally got his opportunity to play in the senior side. I really like him as a player, having watched him have some ripper games in the lower grade and it was great to finally see him debut. He’s been the starting sub in both games so far which would probably indicate he’s not quite best 22 material just yet. I think he’ll slowly be filtered out of the side, and it might even be this week. Having said that, he’s definitely made the most of his limited opportunities.

Summary: Personally, I wouldn’t select him, as he’s playing for his spot in the team every week.

Other bubble boys to quickly brush over include James Sellar, Joseph Daye, and Luke Parker.

Sellar’s played quite well, surprisingly, taking up centre-half back with the injury to Phil Davis. He comes with an inflated price, and won’t score enough to justify that though.

Joseph Daye from the Suns is listed as a defender. He’s a prime sub candidate, every week, and isn’t at all guaranteed to hold his spot in the team each and every game. I’d stay well away.

Finally, one of my favourites from the draft is Luke Parker. He’s been the sub in his only two games and once Kieran Jack comes back, I struggle to see a spot in the Swans side for him consistently.

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