Dane Swan

2010 avg: 123.8

Avg last five: 137.4

Last five vs. Geel: 100.6

Originally I wrote down on this page, “If you have Dane Swan, pick Dane Swan.” But then I thought I better back that up and you can actually make a case against him this week. First of all, he’s playing against Geelong and he hasn’t cracked the ton the last two times he’s played them (Round 9 this year and the Prelim last year). He had three straight tons before that and has scored four tons against them in nine games.

It’s a big game and I think Swanny will lift. He’s in ridiculous form, even though some may have been slightly disappointed with his 114 last week. He’s still the man, if you ask me, but I wouldn’t blame you for casting an eye elsewhere this week.

Gary Ablett

2010 avg: 119.2

Avg last five: 110.2

Last five vs. Coll: 117.2

All of GAJ’s above numbers look pretty good. Not eye popping captain stuff, but still pretty good. He’s scored five straight tons against the Pies, but really, a ton isn’t the benchmark that it was 2-3 years ago. His last two weeks have shown a real return to form with back to back 120+ games.

I’d be surprised if he failed here and I reckon he’s just starting to warm up after ‘coasting’ through the middle stages of the season.

Paul Chapman

2010 avg: 115.5

Avg last five: 110.4

Last five vs. Coll: 108.4

I wasn’t going to include Chappy this week, but there’s a case to be made. His last three games against Collingwood have been for 152, 130 and 107 (129.7). He looked very proppy last week though, so ultimately I’m giving him the Leigh Montagna steer clear this week. Of course, some of you may not be as concerned about him breaking down, so I just thought it was worth mentioning how well he’s done against Collingwood lately. They don’t really have a good match up for him.

Matthew Boyd

2010 avg: 117.6

Avg last five: 131.6

Last five vs. Adel: 89.6

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 21: Matthew Boyd of the Bulldogs handballs during a Western Bulldogs AFL training session at the Whitten Oval on July 21, 2010 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

What a superstar this man has been lately. He’s second only to Dane Swan on the five week average and has been absolutely lighting DT up. He’s also currently enjoying an eight game streak of 30+ disposal games (including the first 40 of his career last week). He tackles like a maniac too and those things are DT gold.

One thing to contrast though is his average record against Adelaide. He’s never really chopped them up. He’s had three tons and a high of 127, but something has to give here. Will it be his current amazing form, or will it be his poor record against Adelaide? Given that he wins his own ball and Adelaide’s contested game hasn’t looked great lately, I’d back him in to rack up a whopper this week. Personally he’d be my second choice behind Swan.

Leigh Montagna

2010 avg: 113.6

Avg last five: 115

Last five vs. Port: 102.8

First of all, it should be noted that his five week average includes an in-game injury that saw him score 68, so he’s in much better form than that. After what look like a pretty painful injury the week prior, I thought Monty looked OK against Essendon last week…you know, considering his team was rubbish. A 110 was a pretty good return, all things considered.

I’m pretty high on him this week to bounce back with a 120+.

Adam Goodes

2010 avg: 96.2

Avg last five: 122.4

Last five vs. Hawks: 109

Adam Goodes on the run home can never be ignored. He’s an absolute star in the second half of the year and he’s not let us down again. His lowest score in the past four weeks is 116 and he loves playing the Hawks. Last week I snuck him into this list as a bit of a smoky, but this week I consider him up there jostling for third spot with Ablett.

He scored 87 against the Hawks earlier this year, but that was before he hit his straps. He’s now belting those straps mercilessly, so you’d have to consider him.

Other notes

  • Hodge has never scored a ton against Sydney.
  • Even though key forwards have a good record against Sydney, Buddy doesn’t.
  • Goddard has a terrible record against Port.
  • Pendlebury doesn’t have a great record against Geelong, but his mo looks sick.
  • I looked for a smoky this week, but no one’s record really stands out against their opposition – I looked at Green, Stanton, Sylvia, Watson, Lake, Cross. I wasn’t wrapped with Selwood or Hayes either, nothing that could have me recommend them over the featured six options.