Footy Tragic

Dane Swan

2010 avg: 123.6

Last five avg: 125.6

Last five vs. Crows: 106.0

Swanny is the #1 choice as far as I’m concerned, once again. He chops the Crows, plain and simple. Since 2006 he has only scored one sub 100 (a 90 in 2008). That is eight tons in that period – four in a row before the 90 and four in a row since then. The only negative I can come across that form line is that in those last four tons vs. Adelaide his scores range from 103-115, so not the mega captain score you’d want from him.

His current form is much famed, but just to go over the numbers again, he hasn’t scored below 100 since Round 9 and in his last 11 games he’s only had three scores below 120. This is his first match-up against the Crows in 2010.

Scott Pendlebury

2010 avg: 107.6
Last five avg: 119.4

Last five vs. Crows: 97.4

His record vs. Adelaide doesn’t command captaincy material, but since Pendlebury has entered the AFL the Crows have been a pretty good side. Right now though, the Crows are not good and he’s arguably in career best form. He’s a very smart player and I can see him finding a lot of space through the midfield.

I went to the Coll vs. Ess game on Friday night and was keeping a close eye on his movement off the ball. We try to make this as objective as possible with statistical analysis, but my eyes couldn’t help but watch the way he moves to get the ball. He’d be a little bit more left field than the likes of Swan, Ablett or even Riewoldt, but if you want to go slightly unique Pendles would be my pick this week.

Gary Ablett

2010 avg: 119.9

Last five avg: 117.0

Last five vs. Carl: 105.0

Ablett’s form against Carlton is quite up and down. Earlier this year he was massive, despite the Cats getting pumped, scoring 145, but last year he only managed 71, before that it was 123, 109 and 77. Aaron Joseph generally goes to him, so I’d expect the same again. Despite his relative inconsistency against the Blues, he is starting to find some of that famous ominous form. He looked bloody scary on Saturday night against the Bulldogs and I reckon he’s just warming up for a huge September.

Nick Riewoldt

2010 avg: 95.4

Last five avg: 103.2

Last five vs. Rich: 91.4

OK, so none of the above numbers look that great, but obviously we know the story behind the top two columns. His in game injury and the way he’s slowly worked his way back into form have effected his 2010 and last five avg. As for what appears to be a poor record against Richmond can be explained by an in game injury on 55 points in 2008.

Admittedly, his record against Richmond if you take that game out is still quite modest. But Riewoldt in hot form still has to be considered in all situations. He looked great on the weekend (but he always does against the Roos) and he still needs to get some good footy into his legs before the finals. One thing to be wary of is if Lyon monitors his TOG late in a blow out game. He was benched a bit in the fourth on the weekend, but not before he racked up 142. You’d want to be sure he can rack up a cricket score (even a West Indies cricket score will do) before he starts getting managed late in a game. There’s that associated risk, but I’d only view this as something that’ll happen in the last 15 minutes of a game, by which time I’d expect him to have already put up a great score.

Brendon Goddard

2010 avg: 112.4

Last five avg: 110.2

Live five vs. Rich: 97.4

His last five vs. Richmond don’t seem too impressive, but early in 2006 he had a 46 against them. His last four against them is a more respectable 110.3. He’s starting to get some of his pre-flu form back and played a very attractive role down back last week. His last four games have been a low of 109 and a high of 119, but I can see him really cutting sick against Richmond. Who have they got to match up on him?

Other notes:

• Hayes doesn’t have a great record against Richmond and after a blistering first half last week he scored less than 30 points in the second half against the Roos.
• Buddy doesn’t have a particularly good record against Freo.
• Hodge just doesn’t look quite right at the moment (seems to be playing hurt) and he doesn’t have a crash hot record against Freo either. However, he has scored 110, 140 and 126 at Aurora Stadium this season!
• Montagna chopped Richmond for 146 earlier this year, but he looked lame on the weekend and cost dlow his semi final against me. Don’t reckon he’s looked that great since hurting his groin against Hawthorn a few weeks ago.
• Damn, Selwood is looking good. He doesn’t have a super record against Carlton, but you would still have to give him a look in this form.
• Chappy hasn’t played Carlton too many times in recent years – hard to make a call on him. His form all year means he’d never be a bad call, but there’s more that appeal to me this week.
• Boyd has a poor record at the SCG. You’d think the small ground would suit his inside game, but his highest score is 75 in four appearances at the ground. He has only played there once since 2007 though, so maybe this is less of a factor given how much he’s come of age since then. His recent form is as good as almost anyone’s.