Footy Tragic
Worth The Risk?
Pearce Hanley – Brisbane ($118,600, BAC, Break even: -22)
First two games: 32 vs. Freo (Round 7) and 80 vs. St.Kilda = 56 avg.
Brisbane’s Irish project didn’t look too bad on the weekend. He had one game earlier in the year against Freo where he looked completely lost, but he came back into the team last week and the only time he looked like he had no idea what to do was during the three quarter time melee.
Voss could look to get a few games into him in the run home with Brisbane’s season not looking like it’s going anywhere too fast (well, maybe down). You couldn’t be too sure of his job security though, but I actually think he’s a bit less of a speculative Irish experiment – he might not turn out too bad. However, if you really need a cheap back option you can still get Andrew Strijk for $2500 less and he has a much better chance at playing the year out, so despite having one price rise I couldn’t recommend Hanley over Strijk.
Jarryd Blair – Collingwood ($94,500, MID, Break even: -69)
First two games: 67 vs. West Coast and 74 vs. Port = 70.5 avg.
I was always a big fan of Blair. I wasn’t sure if he was “AFL material” but that assessment was probably wrapped up in silly pre-conceived notions about height and build. I was still hoping that someone would give him a chance somewhere and Collingwood gave him that chance on their rookie list (breaking the mold of midget on ballers to win Morrish Medals, but miss out on making an AFL list).
Blair is a tough midfielder who will get in there and do the grunt work. He’s got good discipline and has been given a couple of tagging jobs so far, but it also hasn’t stopped him from putting up respectable enough DT numbers. Collingwood don’t have much of an injury list (only Maxwell and Dick of note), so he’s doing well to be in their team right now. I’d tentatively recommend him, as he’s playing a role and doing well so far. If you really need a bit of cash or even just some rookie coverage in the midfield there might not be much more coming along.
Trent Dennis-Lane – Sydney ($89,500, FWD, Break even: -27)
First two games: 44 vs. Richmond and 51 vs. North = 47.5 avg.
The mature aged recruit from Subiaco was set to be one of the most popular DT forwards at the start of the year, but his pre-season was a bit of a fizzer and then he copped an injury early in the NAB Cup. He didn’t look quite there in his first game against Richmond, but was a little bit more comfortable against North on the weekend.
The worry I would have with TDL is that he’s got his spot in the side with Jetta and Rohan currently out of the side. Rohan is listed as having a one week ankle injury, but apparently Jetta had a ripping game for Swans reserves on the weekend. In Sydney’s run to the finals they’ll have a few forwards to come back into the side (Bradshaw, Jetta, White, Rohan) so it could be a completely different looking Swans forward line. There’s a few too many variables with his job security for my liking. Even though he didn’t do too badly against the Roos there’s an entire forward line structure not in the Swans 22 at the moment. I wouldn’t put a line through him, by any means, but you’d have to be wary of that.

9 Comments on Worth The Risk?
Knights is really pissing me off. he keeps training Hille before hes hammy is ready and now he’s going to be out for another 2-3 give him the three knights(this is the second time hille has re-injured his hammy)
By the way great article Dan
at the moment i think Blair has better job security than Davis. That said Davis does have a neck injury.
Do you think i should upgrade downgrade Hille i have 5 trades left and i have Wayde Skipper covering his position?
Maanco, I think Dan is in exactly the same situation (with Hille & Skipper) so interesting to see what he says.
My thoughts are that even if Hille does come back before DT finals, he will be a little down on match fitness again. Skipper is scoring really well as a backup ruckman though, so you could consider carrying Hille until first round of the finals, and then make the trade if need be. It also depends on your league position etc.
Maybe consider Bower to Kennelly this week, and then Hille to Ryder next week after Ryder’s price takes another dive.
thanks for your help leatherhead but i feel Ryder only performs well when hille plays because he has more chances to rest down Foward
I was thinking about downgrading hille to Sam Jacobs because if he gets pulled out of the team warnock will replace him. I could also upgrade Bower to Goddard
I was also thinking about Kurt tippet it looks like he has found some good form lately
I guess the only thing about Tippett at this point is that if the Crows have a low scoring game with a low number of forward 50 entries, Tippett isn’t going to score well. He isn’t pinch hitting in the ruck with Craig going with the Maric/Griffin combo. Earlier in the season and later last year Tippett was being used 20% of the time in the ruck so he was in the play at times even if the ball wasn’t getting fed forward.
Tippett’s good form recently has come with an improvement in delivery from the midfield.
What do you think about Ashley Smith
19 disposals in his first game is not bad
What is more interesting is that he got 28 and 37 disposals in the last 2 WAFL games. Before that he was averaging 20 disposals per game. On the face of it he seems like he can find the ball and has a good kick to handball ratio as well
http://www.waflonline.com.au/players/player.php?playerID=13109
BTW checked out Blair’s stats on the collingwood website as well. Dosen’t find the ball much in the VFL, to me I don’t think he’ll be able to maintain his average. Junked it up in the second half last week was on 18 as halftime and finished on 74.
Besides Davis being out, Medurst,O’bree, Macaffer and Frasier were also playing in the VFL
Not sure about job security?
PS Gia is starting to get on my nerve – I just want to get rid of this guy gets closed down way too easily….
Hey I traded out Hille two weeks ago (after the second injury) to Cox. Not particularly happy with Cox, although he was serviceable this week. Personally, if i had my time again, i would still trade though. Im not happy with leaving Trengove as cover, nor would i be too keen on Skipper for more than a week or two. This is the time of year where i am gunning for league finals – i don’t want to drop a game between now and round 22. I’ve gotten two pretty decent scores in a row and am now just outside the top 1,500 which is probably a bit below par, but still reasonably good.
As for who to trade Hille to, that is the issue. Maanco, a downtrade in the rucks that would allow u to include Goddard would be amazing! Sam Jacobs has been and will likely continue to be serviceable, but don’t expect too many scores over 80. Tippett i do actually quite like – morts81 rightfully pointed out that he is now playing exclusively forward, however i think this is a positive – when pushed into the ruck he hasnt been allowed any consistency to his game and seems to thrive much more as a constant forward target. Adelaide are also playing very good footy, and i would anticipate this will be the case until the season ends – Adelaide KNOW they can make the top eight and are going to be gunning for the still-open 8th spot in the remaining rounds. He is somewhat speculative, but i like him more than Jacobs – he will probably average the same, but i think he has a better ceiling to his scoring.
So if you are looking on the cheap, Tippett is a great pick. Otherwise i still like Ryder, or even Cox if he can finish the season OK. Most picks are rather uninspiring, hence making it easier to take the risk on a cheaper player.
Also, those looking at Blair, i would probably recommend avoiding him – dlow, i really appreciate your research, and I agree he isnt going to be much of a ball-winner at AFL level – he is a small forward with good x-factor and should get his points from goals and tackling. He will be fighting with Medhurst and Davis for a spot and i think he will miss in favour of the other two – whilst he is possibly in better form, most top-four teams are going to put their faith in senior players over debutants unfortunately.
Yes I agree Adelaide are gunning for the finals but look at Tippets last month, only Hawthorn is a top 8 side (the month Tippet has stepped up). Then take a look at their run home, they have 4 or so top 8 sides to play in the last 7 weeks.
I actually think Tippett did better when he got to play some ruck because he got to move into the midfield and actually get his hands on the ball when he was not doing so well.
I’m a Crows supporter and love Tippet but I don’t think he will win you finals matches consistently as a gun player, I think he is going to be inconsistent. If you are looking at trading in someone who you want to win you games throughout your finals and have a bit of consistency then spend an extra 100k. In Dream Team you pay for what you get more often than not
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